Mini 188: Texas Holdem Mafia - GAME OVER!

[Aelyn]

Hi!

Random vote: Iammars

[b/]

[Aelyn]

Bah.

Random vote: Iammars

[Aelyn]

Oooh... very clever mechanic, mod. No reason to prod lurkers.
...
Aelyn:
Slightly contradicting myself here, but may I ask you whether there is anything in your role which would affect your chip count?

Nope, nothing I'm aware of at least.

For the record, the "error" in my first post was very deliberate - I was seeing if I'd get one or two chips.

[Aelyn]

I am trying...

[Aelyn]

... an idea I've had...

[Aelyn]

... to do with how multiple posts...

[Aelyn]

... are treated with the Chip mechanic.

Sorry about that.

[Aelyn]

Boom.

Vote: Aelyn

Someone already tested out that theory and mod already made it clear. Hmm, not paying attention and trying to get chip lead?? Unh-unh.

Not quite. Earlier on, you got two chips for two posts in quick succession, each clearly different, even though they were posted in what seemed like a chain of thought.
I only got one for posting two slightly different, yet basically identical posts.
Bamboomancer got two chips - one for the triple-post, and one for the one apologizing about the triple-post.

I was testing whether the concept of chips is that each line of thought gives you a chip, or if each distinctly different post awards one. In other words, I'm testing the mechanic in-thread. I could have PMed LML, but I guess I'm used to not receiving answers, and felt this was the best way.

In other words, the mod had not made it clear exactly how the mechanic worked, and I was checking it out.

FOS: Rajrhcpfreak and Maximus

for seemingly not realising that I am testing the

exact

mechanic, rather than essentially guessing half of how it works.

[Aelyn]

Thanks.

Sorry for cluttering up the early game with a series of annoying posts like that, but I feel that if a rule's out there but not fully known about, the best thing to do is find out as much about it as rapidly as possible.

[Aelyn]

Consider the possibilities of innocence/guilt with A and B. Let’s say A was about to be lynched, and thus is pressured to all-in B, the next-most suspicious player. In each case assume A’s chips >= B’s chips, thus A is pressured to go all-in against B.
A=i, B=i: A dies. The town, which would have lynched innocent A, instead confirms B as innocent and lynches someone other than these 2 most suspicious players.
A=g, B=i: A dies (likely from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.
A=i, B=g: B dies. The town kills scum and still has the day’s lynch.
A=g, B=g: B dies (or A dies from lynching). Nothing really can be concluded, but at the very least a scum is killed.

The same thing but with A’s chips < B’s chips, thus the town instead pressures B to go all-in against A.

Can you provide any specific, hypothetical example in which the fact that A’s chipcount > B’s would matter? I’m not seeing it, and I’m surprised I’m the only one.

You aren't alone - I agree completely. The only possible case is when A is the only significantly scummy (ie. lynchworthy) person, and has hardly any chips. How do we realistically decide who should go all-in on him, or do we ask him to plusplus his chipcount (which is borderline rulebreaking) until he can - and even then, how do we decide who he goes all-in against?

To (help) remedy this slight problem, I propose that from now, we not only vote for the most suspicious (as normal), but

pseudovote

for the person who's second most suspicious, in our eyes.

Mod, in theory, if we were to adopt pseudovoting for the person we consider second-most suspicious, would you a) ignore it for official votecount purposes, and b) keep a tally for us (We'd all tip you a chip, so it's not like you're getting nothing out of it )?

Actually, scratch that last part. I figure that this thread's already enough work for you; we don't need to give you more.

[Aelyn]

I like this

excuse

perfectly valid reason to order alcohol.

May I have a double Vodka Red Bull, please?

[Aelyn]

OK, I'm incredibly suspicious of Iammars now.

Why? Check out his posts. In his first, he mentions the All-In mechanic as being in his role specifically, despite being 2/7o (The worst hand in Hold 'Em) which you would never go all-in with without seeing a 2/7/7 flop or something similarly ridiculous. It's plausible that he auto-loses an All In... except he's denied that possibility (in effect) in his third post, by saying his role is very similar.

Secondly, his first post was mostly reasonable - an OMGUS vote, and a simple description of his restriction, along with a promise to try to make his posts count. He then says he's not sure what his ability is (wtf?), which is rather strange.

His second post is - get this - only six words. Seems a tad ridiculous to me that, on the same day that he told everyone that he would be careful with his posts, he wastes one completely. This is very suspicious, to say the least.

Thirdly, in his third post, he claims that we should be very suspicious of the last person he attacks that doesn't get lynched - currently, a player who isn't even in this game.

I'm sorry, but I feel that Iammar's play makes almost literally no sense. I can't shake the feeling that he's making stuff up as he goes along (the SV comment screams to me of him pulling a name out of nowhere in an attempt to sound sincere, but with him accidentally naming a player from a different game), and I know from experience that scum're far more likely to do this than good guys.

Confirm vote: Iammars.

[Aelyn]

Also, LML has said that drinks (or at least the tips) don't mean anything. But if people want me to, I can finish my drink and not get another.

Chug! Chug! Chug! Chug!



Seriously, I think that Iammars is easily the most suspicious person here - and we need to either have someone go all in on him or for him to go all in on someone.

Mod, if we go all-in successfully, will this end day or will day continue regardless?

[Aelyn]

The honest truth is that We might waste a townie with a good role killing Iammars, who is not using his last post to reveal his role and whether it will be useful or not. I know that I personally wouldn't go all in on this, and you can read that however you want to, but I doubt there are many people that will volunteer to throw themselves in front of Iammars. I'm only giving him one more day to post because this waiting is ridiculous.

I would be willing to All-In Iammars; if everyone feels that this is a good idea, let me know. I've got some things I'd like to say before I do, but I don't want to unless I know I'm potentially at risk of dying.

[Aelyn]

Agreed. Just in case,

Unvote: Iammars.

Bamboomancer, I will be very disappointed if you don't go all-in on Iammars in your next three posts, or give a VERY compelling reason why you shouldn't.

[Aelyn]

++ing is posting which is completely devoid of actual content, and is designed simply to increase the number of posts made. It's normally used on forums where having 500 posts or so is considered a mark of status, and is derided because the status is obviously not gained. In this game, it's simply posting random stuff to get a higher chipcount.

[Aelyn]

Aelyn or Bamboomancer could go all in. as long as one of them isnt a power role.

I'm hardly a power role as such, though I'm not entirely vanilla either.

Thoughts on Bamboomancer's comments: I'm always a little leery of someone who says "I'm unlikely to survive the night" - this screams to me to be a scum setup to say "OMG, the mafia didn't kill me, they must be trying to frame me!" when they mysteriously don't kill themselves overnight.

Bamboo, do you have a role beyond the nightkill thing? And if so... why are you convinced it's so powerful?

So, everyone, would you mind saying if I should go all-in on Iammars today? I'll obey the town's will.

[Aelyn]

Yikes. No scum dead yet, which means chances are we're at lynch-or-lose today.

Also, with Bamboomancer dead it's impossible to say who Iammars protected. So we're basically relying on our scumdars now, unless there's another cop out there who fingered scum last night.

So, until we seem to be at a consensus:

No-one vote!

A more detailed analysis will come later.

[Aelyn]

I disagree, Raj. I feel we should all claim abilities, then as a town we should decide what order to out the hands in. Thesp, Thok, MOS: Your thoughts on the mass role-claim followed by mass name-claim?

[Aelyn]

EDIT: Obviously I was talking to Dranko, not Raj, there.

[Aelyn]

I'm rather ambivalent towards a mass claim, truth be told.

I was pretty sold on a Bamboomancer-Iammars-someone else mafia yesterday. I'm a little miffed at Bamboomancer for not claiming

an easily verified role

before going all in. Oh well.

Right now, I'm pretty sold on Dranko being scum. The only reason he's given me to doubt him right now is his opposition to Thok, whom I'd thought was a bit scummy as well. Raj was just about the most confirmed townie I could think of, so I seriously am disbelieving his "he was obviously the most scummy" bit. I'm more inclined to think Dranko was an SK.

I'm surprised to find three dead people, though, as I'd have guessed the doc would have protected our hider. Guess it didn't work, or she protected someone else.

Actually, I lied about being ambivalent towards a claim. Should we not go towards lynching Dranko (which I think is our best call, personally), I'd like to hear a claim out of Quagmire. He's said very, very little this game, and I'd like to hear something from him we can work with.

Agreed, mostly. To be honest, I was leaning towards Thok as a possible SK, but I was kinda surprised to see him asking for me to state the claiming order.

I'm most suspicious of Dranko, there's no sense denying it. His last post sent a BIG flare up on my scumometer, and I was more than a little suspicious of him before that as well.

I agree on Raj being the least scummy, at least after Iammars - I could only see two possible hands being a double-vote role, namely KK (Penn and Teller) and KQ (Marriage), neither of which are exactly scummy hands. Plus the ability is broken on scum

Regarding three deaths: It seems clear to me that Iammars targetted scum, and thus got killed by his own ability, and Mafia and an SK each killed one of Raj and Kristocker.

I'd like to see a claim from Dranko, and if necessary one from Quailman - although that's not needed until we've decided what to do about Dranko today.

Oh yes, one last question before I sign off for the night: Now that we know that all-inning a townie results in night falling, do we still want to use the all-in mechanic in place of lynching? Instinct tells me yes, but I'm not 100% sure.

[Aelyn]

OK, I think everyone should claim (both hands and abilities), and in my opinion in the following order:

Dranko gives his role name.
I fully claim.
Quagmire FULLY claims.
Thok fully claims.
Emptyger fully claims.
Thesp fully claims.

Does anyone have any problems with this order? If anyone does, please speak up. Otherwise, let's go.

Oh, and there are good reasons I chose that order. All will become clear after roleclaims have been made.

[Aelyn]

I'm not doing very well here, am I? MoS was supposed to be between Quagmire and Thok.

[Aelyn]

OK, that's interesting. Especially since I'm Big Slick. I'll decline to explain my night ability just yet, but I am confirmable before the day ends.

Should I go all-in on Dranko, everyone, or should we finish the roleclaiming and then lynch him?

[Aelyn]

I hope you guys have some trust.

I just want to reiterate to you guys that if I gave out the little bonus I get when I woof woof a lot, then it's a hinderance to the town. So at this point, I don't want to reveal what I get.

I don't have any trust in you. I want to make it harder for you to lie and get out of it. There's a reason Aelyn capitalized the "FULLY" when referring to your need to claim. My guess right now is that you're scum with Dranko, or you're the serial killer, since it's becoming obvious that Dranko is almost certainly regular mafia.

Then why don't you lynch Dranko? Trust me that if I revealed my ability, it's a hinderance to the town. If I get pressured enough, I will. But I don't feel the need to until I'm pressured enough.

bark bark

We don't want to lynch Dranko for two reasons.

Firstly, it moves me up from 95%-confirmed to 100%-confirmed.

Secondly, we know day ends if an all-in fails, but we don't yet know if it ends if the all-in succeeds.

Claim, Quagmire. There's a reason I set the order like I did, and I want you to claim.

Oh, and

FOS: Thok

for suggesting possible roles in the middle of the mass roleclaim. Bad time, mate.

[Aelyn]

I hope you guys have some trust.

I just want to reiterate to you guys that if I gave out the little bonus I get when I woof woof a lot, then it's a hinderance to the town. So at this point, I don't want to reveal what I get.

I don't have any trust in you. I want to make it harder for you to lie and get out of it. There's a reason Aelyn capitalized the "FULLY" when referring to your need to claim. My guess right now is that you're scum with Dranko, or you're the serial killer, since it's becoming obvious that Dranko is almost certainly regular mafia.

Then why don't you lynch Dranko? Trust me that if I revealed my ability, it's a hinderance to the town. If I get pressured enough, I will. But I don't feel the need to until I'm pressured enough.

bark bark

There are two main reasons we aren't just lynching Dranko right now.

1) Lynching him now will stop people from claiming today, giving the mafia more time to think and less chance of accidently double-claiming.

2) There's no guarantee that day will end if the all in is successful; all we know so far is that if we all-in unsuccessfully, day ends.

I want Aeyln to go all-in against me.

I'm not voting for Aeyln because I dont want to lynch him, I want him to go all-in against me.

It's obvious he's scum.

Don't worry, Dranko, I will. Not yet, though; I'm hoping we can catch your partner out in a lie today. After all claiming is finished, I'll happily go all-in on you.

[Aelyn]

Gaah, sorry all. This screen stayed open while I went out for the evening; I came back, made a few alterations, and posted it. I didn't realize I'd already posted it.

Mod: Would you mind fixing the formatting of the quote tags for me? Thanks

[Aelyn]

Bah, this is really, really slow.

Quagmire, I'm not too bothered about you posting your exact ability just yet; I only put you early in the order becaue you'd already partially claimed.

The order of claims left (assuming everyone is OK with the order I set) is:

MoS fully claims.
Thok fully claims.
Before Emp or Thesp claim, we need Quagmire's full ability claim.
Emptyger fully claims.
Thesp fully claims.
I give the full details of my role, and all-in Dranko.

[Aelyn]

Where is everyone?

Sorry to ask this, but:

Mod: Can we please have MoS prodded?

While we're waiting, Thok, feel free to jump the queue a bit.

[Aelyn]

Mod: Can we get a chipcount?

Agreed.

I have been extremely hesitant to post today, lest I give any tells as to who I investigated and what the result was, as I feared that certain setups existed which would allow mafia to immediately win. So I’m actually really glad MoS made his claim, regardless of its veracity. Because now there is a second possibility I must consider: whether I am insane. Hence I am treating my result as ambiguous for now, which allows me to dismiss that worry.

Interesting... I would personally like you to withold your results until all claims have been concluded and MoS has posted his results. In the same vein, I'd like MoS to hold back until all claims have been completed.

I have further analysis I’d like to give about MoS’s claim, as well as about others’ and also about general strategy- but I will wait on that until claiming is finished, per the agreed ordering. And speaking of which...


Quagmire:

Please trust me.

Ridiculous. This is a game of mafia. I distrust you almost as much as I distrust Dranko. I don’t think this canine ability exists- but it’s moot since you’re not using it tonight.

I am the K9 (Canine). If I make a dog sound in every post, I have a special ability I will not name so as to help the town.

woof woof.

I didn't do it day one, because I forgot about it in my first post, and found it useless because there has to be one in EVERY ONE of my posts for that day.

So, there you all have mine.

I told you, it would be much better for the town if my ability waited for tomorrow to be revealed. Please trust me.

Well, well: the dog didn’t bark. I don’t know why you’re stalling, but quit it. You’ve run out of excuses. You’re not going to use this alleged ability tonight. You’re not going to use this alleged ability before you’d be revealing it tomorrow. Did you learn anything from Bamboo’s suicidal play? Claim fully- now!

Nice catch. Quagmire, claim your ability. As mentioned, you can't use it tonight, and I really don't think there's much chance of the game lasting long enough for it to make a significant difference anymore.

I can’t speak for the rest of the town, but you will have to say something awfully convincing- and much more so than “please trust me”- to convince me otherwise.

Agreed.

No more holding back (there's a very good reason I've held back my ability so far, but rest assured I will claim it before I go all-in on Dranko.

[Aelyn]

Sorry for laying into you there, Emp, I posted before seeing your claim.

Thesp, time to reveal all, I think? Also MoS, your results please?

[Aelyn]

I think you may be overanalyzing the setup there, Emp.

Also, what results did you get with your investigations?

[Aelyn]

SK:
It should be clear that you cannot win unless you win the all-in tomorrow. Kill Aelyn (or Thesp if he doesn't take nightprotection) and good luck tomorrow. (In Quagmire's case, you need *very* good luck.)

Mafia:
You need 4 people alive tomorrow to win (ie: 2 nightkills to occur), and for the SK and the town to have bad luck. It's easiest for you if you try to kill off the SK. Obviously Aelyn nor Thesp can be the SK, so guess among whoever's left.

WHAT? Why are you giving sodding advice to the bad guys?

Listen, giving any hints - even misleading ones - to the scum is a bad idea.

MAJO

VOS: Emptyger

Thesp:
Nightprotection is useless at this point; if you take it, Aelyn will die instead and that's just as bad. Take the investigation. Either you or Thesp will be alive in the morning.

But if he takes the investigation, we don't currently know if he'll even survive or not.

Thesp, I'm mildly irritated at you for going all-in so fast, but no matter. I know you meant well

Emptyger, give us your results to date. There's no reason not to; it's certainly possible you'll die overnight, and as you've been outed you may as well let us know.

Mod:

If Thesp chooses to investigate, will he recieve the result before night ends or as night ends?

[Aelyn]

I'd be dead otherwise and the investigation would likely be irrelevant (points to mod's post). Hooray for huge chipcounts.

And that of course is the reason I asked. It'd be moronic to go with the night investigation, since it makes you an obvious nightkill choice.

Anyway, I fully expect to die overnight.

Goodbye town. It's been good. I'll give Thesp all my overnight thoughts and ask him to post my suspicions once I am gone.

[Aelyn]

ok....way to give an explanation...

Here you go, here's an explanation for you.

First up, Maximus / Mastermind of Sin. I’m pretty much willing to All-In him immediately, based partially on uncertain feelings regarding him, partially because scum all-inning scum could be vital to their victory, but mostly because of these two points:
1)

I'm thinking a cop can easily make this all in thing advantageous to himself. He may find a guilty night 1, and go all-in and get vigged. But I don't see why he would want to be vigged rather than be a cop.

...And I just realized that

the cop is dead

. My bad, I guess that's what happens when you are in multiple mafia games.

…

sorry. I'm American Airlines, A-A.

I'm also a cop

. Should I reveal results now, or wait until more people have claimed?

Pointing out that “the” cop is dead is not a great idea if you are a cop.

2)

night 1, I got rajr innocent. night 2, I got Aelyn innocent. Any questions?

Convenient results, much? Someone you never mentioned day 1, and myself – perhaps the most confirmed innocent, according to basically everyone other than a known scum.

I believe that's why Thesp went all-in on you. Thesp, hope you don't mind me sharing that info.

[Aelyn]

ok....way to give an explanation...

Here you go, here's an explanation for you.

First up, Maximus / Mastermind of Sin. I’m pretty much willing to All-In him immediately, based partially on uncertain feelings regarding him, partially because scum all-inning scum could be vital to their victory, but mostly because of these two points:
1)

I'm thinking a cop can easily make this all in thing advantageous to himself. He may find a guilty night 1, and go all-in and get vigged. But I don't see why he would want to be vigged rather than be a cop.

...And I just realized that

the cop is dead

. My bad, I guess that's what happens when you are in multiple mafia games.

…

sorry. I'm American Airlines, A-A.

I'm also a cop

. Should I reveal results now, or wait until more people have claimed?

Pointing out that “the” cop is dead is not a great idea if you are a cop.

2)

night 1, I got rajr innocent. night 2, I got Aelyn innocent. Any questions?

Convenient results, much? Someone you never mentioned day 1, and myself – perhaps the most confirmed innocent, according to basically everyone other than a known scum.

I believe that's why Thesp went all-in on you. Thesp, hope you don't mind me sharing that info.

[Aelyn]

Bugger. After I suggested to Thesp that we all-in immediately, I realised that if MoS was SK the game was over.

Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go. Aside from that, good game LML!

[Aelyn]

Bugger. After I suggested to Thesp that we all-in immediately, I realised that if MoS was SK the game was over.

Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go. Aside from that, good game LML!

Well, if you and Thesp would have killed MAFIA, instead of the SK, you had a chance.

I don't like the game boiling down to a real-life scenario; we basically had to decide, of the three killers, who was most likely to be SK AND both get online before both scum did. It's kinda tough, you know.

Remember, we only provided one of the two all-ins today.