Mini 219: Tom Cruise Mafia -- It's a Wrap!

[Fuldu]

Well, the professional handgun shot is almost certain to be Vincent from Collateral. I'll have to do some looking to figure out being medicated to death.

[Fuldu]

vote: Fuldu

Standard argument. You know what it is, right?

I do, and I knew I was courting it, but I'm not especially concerned.

[Fuldu]

That's OK. My vote can stay there until further notice.

Glorious mod: Is the motivator the same as discussed in some of the setups I've sent to you?

Hey now. If he's going to answer questions like that, he ought to explain it to the rest of us.

[Fuldu]

urm, 'she.'

[Fuldu]

I find Johnny's most recent post to raise flags that neither inHim nor WindSlicer have, so I'll

vote: Johnny, Combo Player

.

[Fuldu]

Well, given a non-claim like that, I'm pretty sure I know what the claim's going to be and I imagine scum do as well. If that's the case, then it's almost certainly better for you to die tonight than to die today. I think the claim is probably to help more than hurt at this point.

[Fuldu]

Uh-uh. If you're making up a claim, having me hand you one that at least I find believable is totally outside the bounds of what I'm willing to do.

[Fuldu]

I believe the claim as well. Given that it was what I had expected (role-wise - I hadn't really thought about role name), I'm a little surprised at inHim's shock, but I don't think it seems scummy. I don't really like the approach DP is taking in response, either, but still don't know that I find it scummy. I think Talitha's "evidence" against Astronaut is sort of weird. Certainly I can't think of why Astronaut would say something like that, but that holds whether he's town or scum. It was just a strange comment. Her determination that Astronaut is therefore more likely to be scum seems forced, to me, especially when she then admits

I think it's the best evidence there is right now anyway.

unvote: Johnny, Combo Player; vote: Talitha

[Fuldu]

unvote: Talitha; vote: Johnny, Combo Player

I can't think of a reason Coolbot would come out with this if he were scum, but by the same token, I can't think of a reason halfpint would have put a vote on inHim if Johnny was counterclaiming her role.

[Fuldu]

I'm still here, and have been all along. I just didn't want to interfere with this discussion if it wasn't necessary to do so. I don't feel as strongly as Phoebus about Yosarian, but the fact that no one has jumped on either of these two bandwagons argues strongly in favor of one of them being scum. Right now, Seol has made the less convincing arguments and has also been caught in an error, which makes him a more compelling choice, but if this is a lynch-or-lose scenario (and the argument for that isn't as strong as Seol has made it out to be), it might still be dangerous to vote. So, Seol, consider yourself voted and convince me not to actually bold it.

[Fuldu]

I've been thinking about it, and given the situation, I think the circumstances are such that the downside to my coming out as inHim's mason partner is minimal. For one thing, Phoebus and I are the only two players who haven't, at some time in the game, either voted inHim or at least suggested disbelief in the mason claim. That narrows the field rather substantially. I don't plan on claiming my role name, since we could still catch people out with a counterclaim.

[Fuldu]

You know what, if we're this concerned about it being tight at this point, I see no reason not to get a name claim from the rest of you. It might help inHim and I make a decision, especially if someone happens to claim

my

role name. Personally, I'd like to have Seol start and select who he wants to go next, but that can be under discussion, as well.

[Fuldu]

Well, of those name claims, the one that seems the least probable to me is Seol's. Phoebus' claim is questionable, but he's right that MeMe throws odd roles into a game, and since our SK (same kill type twice means same player) is medicating people, he's probably a Ritalin-prescribing doctor. So it isn't going to be all Cruise roles. The thing I found most troublesome about Phoebus' claim is actually that he tacked on that he's a hider. I wasn't asking for powers in this claim, but he handed it out anyway. It seems more like the choice of a player who doesn't want to be targeted for a kill at night than one who hopes to be so that no one will die. I think Phoebus is the SK, which means that I don't want to vote for him today.

So, aside from the fact that he had to go first and came up with the worst name claim, I also didn't like this sentence from Seol:

I'm expecting that, at least, a name claim from Astro would be helpful. That's why (again at Fuldu's suggestion that I choose who picks next) I'd like to hear his rolename.

It seems a little too concerned about what people might think that he's supporting the name claim. "I'm not the one who wanted this. It's Fuldu, he suggested it. I'm just doing what he said."

vote: Seol

As an aside to inHim, there was a reason that I wanted each player to select who claimed next rather than just making a list the way you did. If Seol is scum, then his choosing Astronaut decreases the likelihood that Astronaut is scum, since it's to scum's benefit to get all the real claims out there before their turns come. But since that was the only choice made by someone other than you, that's the only conclusion we can draw. Please pay attention to instructions in the future.

[Fuldu]

I think Phoebus is the SK, which means that I don't want to vote for him today.

This was poorly phrased. What I was trying to say was that

if Phoebus is scum

, I think he's the SK.

[Fuldu]

I agree with Phoebus. Even if there were only two mafia and all we're left with is a SK, no lynch isn't a losing proposition with only one kill tonight. And if we have a scum and a SK (more probable, though not certain, given a GF in the mix), then they have to hope to get one another rather than shooting at me. I won't vote yet, to give the group more opportunity to talk, but that's where my inclinations lie.

[Fuldu]

I think there's a better way than no lynch. From my point of view, this one is solved, with mason Fuldu as my only pro-town companion. Yos teamed up with Seol all yeasterday, which means Phoebus is our SK.

I'm currently analyzing votes in an attempt to convince you of my innocense, Fuldu. Don't go with the NL until you've heard me out.

What are you talking about, Astro? If that's the case, then lynching either of them results in one town and one scum being alive tomorrow morning. That's not a win for the town.

[Fuldu]

Well, I don't believe you, but letting me in on your plan may or may not change that. Right now I'm inclined to believe that Phoebus is the SK and you're the remaining goon, but a no lynch would provide me with better information.

[Fuldu]

Well, if I can't convince you I'm town, I guess there's no chance of me convincing you that we should lynch the SK. Because if we do, town wins.

Probably not, but it's far less likely if you continue to not explain the logic of your argument, and particularly unlikely when, if you're lying and a mafia goon, your plan would be an almost sure win for you.

[Fuldu]

But anyway, I don't assume anything at this point. It's quite possible that both you and Astro are scum in different groups, and it's also quite possible that only one of you is scum. I still say that if Astro has one lynch immunity, then lynching him today is better then a no-lynch, because it gives us more information and makes it possible to lynch him tommorow if we need to (if there is a tommorow, of course) and has no real disadvantage over a no-lynch.

Plus, there's the added bonus that if Astro is lying about being immune to a lynch, I expect him to admit it once it becomes clear that we're about to lynch him unless he admits to the lie.

Fine, let's go over this again. There are four players alive. Assuming only one is scum (we started with 2 mafia and 1 SK), then a no lynch is unlikely (though not certain) to be safe. If, as is more likely to be the case, we have 1 mafia and 1 SK left, then lynching either of them results in a win for the other. 2 vs 1 going into night wakes to 1 vs 1, which is generally a town loss. So that's the disadvantage over no lynch right there. If Astronaut is telling the truth, then there's no real disadvantage to lynching him today. But if he's lying, then we've killed a scum and screwed the town. The only reason we would want to lynch Astronaut today is if we think he's the only scum left and actually has the one lynch immunity he's claimed.

[Fuldu]

I think you've missed the point of the no lynch, Astronaut. If we wake up to a massacre tomorrow morning, it is in the best interest of both scum to target each other, meaning that unless one of them makes an error in judgement, we'll end up with two dead scum and two living townies. If you're telling the truth, achieving no lynch by lynching you confirms for everyone that you have the lynch immunity you've claimed. In that event, Yosarian and Phoebus have to target one another, since doing so is their only hope of winning.

But you're a 50% roleblocker against everyone but the SK with a lynch immunity? That is quite possibly the stupidest role I've ever heard of, and I'm running a game called Worst Role Ever Mafia. As far as I'm concerned, you're so obviously scum now that I don't even want to risk bothering with the lynch immunity question.

vote: no lynch

[Fuldu]

So does this make this the game with the largest percentage of winning players (11/12, i.e. everyone but Phoebus)?

[Fuldu]

Well, in truth, I wasn't sure you were pro-town, but I figured that if you were, you were potentially immune to night-kills, as turned out to be the case. Given that, and given your totally ludicrous roleclaim, I had hoped that either you would turn out to be night-kill immune or that

both

Phoebus and Yosarian would end up targeting you. And that involved playing up how unlikely it was that you were telling the truth and how probable it was that you were scum. That didn't take into account the possibility that you were immune to mafia kills, but not SK kills, but from my standpoint, even if you were telling the truth, no lynch was still the right move.