Mini 925: Umineko No Naku Koro Ni Mafia: GAME OVER!

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/confirm

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obligatory

vote: kairyuu

When i'm town he's scum
So since I'm town --> he's scum

however...

I've always wanted to do this in a game that let's you vote anything so:

unvote
Vote: Not Voting

FATAL EXCEPTION. GAME CRASHED.

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@ray: I'd wager "removed from game"

Wait.... something is wrong here...
My vote for not voting either didn't count, which means we can't lynch not voting, which would contradict the gold, and anything that contradicts the gold contradicts the gold of 14, or that it made me vote Not Voting, which means my inclusion on the list of "Not Voting" means that the "Not Voting" in the vote count is Not Voting's vote count, which means Not Voting reached lynch count, but presumably has not been lynched, which means that it contradicts the gold where anyone or anything reaching lynch count will be lynched, which also contradicts the gold of 14...

Since this means 14 will be contradicted in any scenario, it must not be true.

Or maybe I'm just being totally picky and literal in my interpretations.

See your post where you voted not voting. FATAL EXCEPTION occured while processing your vote

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ack!
Since Not Voting was never voted, which may not be directly preventing not voting from being voted, but may be something totally unrelated (so Not voting could still be lynched, if all things were equal), I never actually voted not voting, so all the gold remains true and my logic is utterly defeated.
I concede, it was a beautiful refutation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHy4Ca7-zoI

UK:

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99% of me says that lynching "the mafia" will result in a no lynch, or effectively the same thing
the other 1% is the part that makes me do poorly on tests


However, I'm nowhere near as sure that lynching UK will not yield any results...

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goddammit, I'm to curious for my own good... I wanna to attempt to lynch the mod to see what'll happen...

But I agree with cobalt/rayfrost, lynching the mod is probably not the best course of action at the moment.

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Upon waking up from sleeping just now, I just had a random burst of inspiration, that may or may not be stupid

Uk, can you say, "the mod is not a player is this game", for me?

I see no need to repeat that for you. Figure it out for yourself

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Well, unless I can invent some method to make UK need to repeat it...

*sigh*

@Discode: navycherub saved you from the dilemma? so your vote isn't random? Could you elaborate on your rationale for us?

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@Navycherub: just because you hold the same positions he does doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have reason to find you scummy. Why do you suspect that your level of agreement is his reason for voting you?

@CSL: Why is advocating a policy lynch reason to vote cobalt? I don't see how "cobalt is scum" follows from "cobalt advocated a policy lynch". Although I personally don't like policy lynches, a lot of players push them, and I wouldn't consider it a scumtell.

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@CSL: Yeah, mind demonstrating to cobalt how to be reasonable

by answering my question?

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Discode, could you elaborate on what you said about Kairyuu?
Is there anything in particular that sticks out?

Discode is an idiot.

*blink*
Why?

Still want a mod lynch.

We need to figure out if
1. UK is "in" the game
2. If she is acting as a player, or if her being lynched has some affect on the game instead

If she is acting as a player, then she is more likely than not a neutral role. But she could instead have other affects on the game.
(Tar did this in Mind Screw 2, right?)
And, of course, the possibility remains open that lynching her is just a waste of a lynch.


I'd like to hear Navy respond to discode, actually...

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@Snow_bunny: you find it interesting... but you don't understand it?

discode is saying that if Navy thinks that the actions don't make sense from a town perspective, why isn't she voting the people making those actions, because its logical to conclude if the action doesn't make sense from town, then they have scummy motivations.

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wait, what do you mean by

I didn't find it inherently scummy until recently

?

Recently with respect to when? and why did your view change?

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Recently with respect to when? and why did your view change?

When the talk didn't stop. When it started growing ("it is still a major idea...")

Oh, and

unvote

,

vote: Leech

for starting the whole thing.

so your issue is that its still around, but you suspect the person who started it? not the people who came later, prolonging it?

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Ok, but you still have your vote there. What's with that?

o your issue is that its still around, but you suspect the person who started it? not the people who came later, prolonging it?

He was the first one to bring it up, with his first post as well.

I'll put this bluntly.

I'm sort of getting the feeling you just made this vote because people were pressuring you about not voting. Can you dissuade me from this feeling?

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I'll elaborate then. The first vote was scummy to me because it started it the whole thing (no way) and didn't say much other than that the mod might be a character. No indication of if the mod was a character we should be wary of, etc., just that there might be a Mod character. Leech then didn't bring it up again until I voted him for it. I was thinking he did this in order to draw attention away from his connection to the votes, so I voted. We had some exchanges on the topic, I do not find the idea of the Mod being a negative character a scummy thing anymore. I still don't think we should lynch her TODAY, though.

but... I thought you said you didn't think it was scummy until you decided to vote leech on it, at which point you decided it was scummy... for some reason...

Now that you talked it over with leech... you changed your mind... again...

So what exactly changed your mind and caused you to unvote? Can you explain your reasoning?

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Leech's post about how the lynch didn't need to happen today and how the topic was one that needed to be discussed changed my view on his first vote in particular.

Funny, I didn't say whether it needed to happen today or not. I never once stated whether it would be beneficial to lynch the mod today or not. You've been the one discussion a mod lynch. I simply voted for the Mod because the mod is a player in these games sometimes. Considering there was no one else to go for, I figured I'd at least be somewhat productive.

I said it's not bad to suspect, I never said anything about lynching.

^ That is the quote I'm referring to.

Actually, it was pretty much a standard RVS vote. The mod could be a player, so voting for UK with nothing to go on as opposed to a guaranteed player with nothing to go on is pretty much the same thing. There was no meaning beyond "Random vote, maybe we should consider the mod might be in this game." It wasn't my vote I was defending, I was defending myself from your faulty logic.

My mistake, I was in the wrong to assume you were defending the vote, but I assumed that because that is the thing I was directing my action toward.

You still haven't answered how the first mod vote is more scummy than the 4th vote that was cast. Nor have you explained how the fact that it was my first vote is even remotely relevant.

The first vote got the wagon started; you could have information about the mod that we don't, hence your immediate direction of attention toward the mod.

Shouldn't you be suspicious of the people who ran with it? The wagon was up to four votes at one point. Why aren't you questioning them?

You are correct, I was thinking about this before starting to write this post. I should be scumhunting, not just defending myself. I will soon, but I have to leave for school right now.

Also if you want to get technical Tar was the first to mention it, not me. He made a joke about it in the confirmation stage. I just re-read the thread and noticed that. I must have missed it before, not expecting something to actually happen pre-game.

I never considered the pre-game, but I still don't think the pre-game is significant right now.

When I come back I will reread and begin to question some people.

but, it sounds like Tar

does

have information about the mod we don't...

and why didn't you consider pre-game significant?

Your actions aren't matching with your explanations, now it looks like you should have voted tar.

unvote vote: Navycherub

I don't think your motivations for these actions are sincere. Could you explain the discrepancy between your motivations and your actions?

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Kai is the new Armlx to me. When I used to play with armlx, I could tell from the tone in which he posted if he was scum or town.
The same is now with Kai. Kai is nice and fun to play with when he's town. But when he's scum, his tone is entirely different. I can't think of the right word to describe it right now though >.<

My meta says that kairyuu lurks, and generally posts less content as town, and is more engaging and involved in the game as scum.
He finds playing scum more interesting, and gets bored as town.

So I'm curious if you could back this up, because in my meta-book, kai is behaving like kai-town.

Kai also claims to have never played a game with you before, could you explain this?

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Quiet you. I'm trying to fix that bad habit.

wait... does that mean you're arguing that I'm wrong you're not playing like my meta suggests you would as town?

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hey tar, how come you didn't respond to snow_bunny's comment about you in the post you quoted?

Navy's claim is believable, so I'll tentatively

unvote

I'd like to hear more about what reactions Navy was looking for, though, if any specifically. If no specific reactions were being looked for, what conclusions were drawn from the reactions that did happen?

also I'm going to have to

V/LA until monday due to papers and homework and stuff.

Noted

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Uh, you DID read the post, right?

Apparently not... I missed that...

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SC, why should tar even have to be a bomb/supersaint if he were mafia? All the ways to confirm those roles involve killing him, so its not like he'd have to make sure it was clear if he were lying or not.

Kai, why is SC scum?

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Tar's claim was unhelpful, and anti-town, but it has a motivation behind it, misguided though it may be. Its definitely plausible as a towny thought process, especially if they consider themselves to be a valuable player in end game.

The problem is that its not actually a second lynch, Or anything similar. If he really is a bomb, all he succeeds in doing is getting himself and someone else killed at the same time. That's one lynch, plus one death that will result if implemented that way, of someone who we can't choose.
So if Tar is town, using him as a "second" lynch, would actually just result in killing a townie along with our lynchee. Undesirable in comparison to just the lynchee. Supersaint is the same way. I fail to see the benefit from using it in such a manner unless the supersaint/bomb already is under heavy suspicion, and then we're more likely acting under the assumption that the supersaint/bomb isn't a townie, anyway.

Generally speaking deaths that are guaranteed to be on town are to be discouraged, not advocated for use as a "second lynch"

However, I get the feeling tar is being honest, albeit arrogant, because its a risky claim overall, due to the obvious fallout from the lynch deterrent.

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lets make it a four way tie

unvote vote: strangercoug

Kai's right, start taking positions. mind telling us who

is

lynchworthy?


@UK: As manly as I am, I noticed you have my name misspelled in every vote count/list.

I'll fix it in future votecounts. I always make this mistake. I have to like, triple check any PMs I send to you, lol

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@Ray:
I'm voting stragercoug for the same reason as Kai, he seems unwilling to devote himself to a position, although pressed on this he has started to improve in response to questions. He has taken a position on thelonging, but considering the longing is now almost up for replacement and hasn't posted since being voted, it seems like a weak and easily abandoned position.

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Hi netopalis.

Will post a good answer later on. I don't have much time now.

Btw, Tar, just for you to know, the falseclaim comment was a joke. And thus, I wasn't sure Navy was scum.

I'm still waiting on this... I'm a bit disappointed snow_bunny hasn't elaborated yet.... well... it has only been 29 hours and 51 minutes or so, but who's counting?

I didn't like this post, it lent itself really well to tar's attack, by being non-committal and taking a stance that could be reapplied depending on how things went (to either justify backing off or justify attacking). So it wasn't a very good defense.... I was wondering how this was meant to be a response.

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fos: cobalt

Explain.
Now.
I don't see how such a position isn't scummy.

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fos: cobalt

Explain.
Now.
I don't see how such a position isn't scummy.

I agree wholeheartedly. Cobalt's dancing around explanations for his actions is getting tiring, and I would love to see one for this vote. That post is not an explanation, that's a conclusion.

His lack of explanation isn't what's scummy, but it is contributing.

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Isn't it blindingly obvious that I want to use tarh as a supersaint on Snow? My town read on Tarh is weak at best. I hate the WIFOM of keeping him around- in case we decide he is scum later, we'll wind up sacrificing whoever hammers him. And I think SB is very scummy. A handy 2 for 1 deal.

Do you think that a scum bomb is a plausible role?

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look...

Assume
Snow is scum
tar is scum, bomb
Snow refuses to hammer, so we lynch snow. Its left ambiguous whether or not tar is town or even a bomb. If we lynch tar, we still end up losing a townie. nul result

Snow is scum, tar is scum
Snow refuses to hammer, so we lynch snow. Its left ambiguous whether or not tar is town or even a bomb. nul result

Snow is scum, tar is town
Snow either hammers to take a townie with her, or relies on the previous two possibilities and refuses to hammer, so that if we check tar, we'll lose two townies nul result

Snow is town tar is scum, bomb
The outcome is the same regardless of who hammers tar then. good result

Snow is town, tar is scum
Snow's role is left ambiguous, she could of hammered to avoid us believing it was the second possibility, and thus we can't know snow's alignment. good result

Snow is town, tar is town
Worst case scenario. Snow will hammer, and we will lose two townies and gain nothing. bad result

So, in summary
Snow is scum -> nothing
Snow is town -> Only good results when tar is scum. Much worse result if tar is town.

Of course, scum have a lot of reason to propose this. They know who's scum and who's not, and know ahead of time what the outcome would be. If they argue along the lines cobalt did, they may be able to kill two townies, including a problematic power role. They have every reason to desire tar dead if he's town.
On the other hand, its a good plan iff tar is scum.


The problem is that when you propose this, you claim you see tar as weakly town, and snow as scum.
Further, your motivation is getting rid of the wifom of keeping tar around.

however

In the event your reads are correct, we keep the wifom of keeping tar around, because we end up just lynching snow bunny. Furthermore, in the event your read on snow bunny is wrong, we end up with a worst case scenario.

ergo, because this plan can only be more beneficial than just lynching snow bunny in the event that tar is scum, this is not a plan that should be suggested by someone with a "weak town" read on tar, however, it is a great plan for scum to use to get rid of tar.

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the results are compared to just lynching snow bunny instead.

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Lynch Snow
[col]Tar Scum[col]Tar TownSnow Scum[col]+[col]+Snow Town[col]-[col]-
Proposed Tar lynch
[col]Tar Scum[col]Tar TownSnow Scum[col]+[col]+Snow Town[col]+[col]--

Notice that if snow is scum they work out exactly the same (see my analysis, which is based on comparing the first table results to the second table results)

Cobalt is saying he believes snow scum, tar town to be the case...

However, the snow scum results are exactly the same regardless of which plan we go with.

So the only difference between the two plans is this
Lynch Snow
[col]Tar Scum[col]Tar TownSnow Town[col]-[col]-

Proposed Tar Lynch
[col]Tar Scum[col]Tar TownSnow Town[col]+[col]--

because this is the only difference, you'd only propose this plan if you were considering that snow was town

What's important, then, is tar's alignment.

Further, Cobalt says he believes that tar town is the case...
Which lands us in the worst possible scenario.

I think tar's town, and would rather we not try and use tar as a second lynch.

I also don't believe that Tar's a scum bomb if he is scum.

If we decide he's scum, and we're right, we won't end up sacrificing anybody.

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@snow_bunny: why do you think the mod is in the game at all?

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EBWOP: If we assume that there is definitely scum between tar/snow bunny, but don't know which, then its a good plan. I don't like making such an assumption.

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I recommend waiting until its not too early in the morning, and then dealing with this kind of thing.




people need to stop complaining about walls of text. It really irks me.
I mean, I have ADHD, and I can make it through a wall of text just fine. I suspect it has something to do with those new fangled cell phones that are all the rage with you kids these days. Back in my day, we all had laptop computers with wifi, and were just fine. We didn't need to be on any igagdet to read our text and we didn't need to be checking the thread as we walked between classes at our school (it was fine to check once we got there, but in-between? My god.) /rant.

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I was mostly joking, I just don't know how to summarize it.

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not necessarily, just think its a better option than yours. Hence my lack of vote.

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okay, I find that I agree with M_O more than cobalt here.

I lol'd

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I'll summarize the situation in a few easy sentences:

I've been gambitting (I *have* to die today - don't argue, and good luck getting an explanation - so I decided to falseclaim Bomb and see if I could bait any scum into outing themselves before I trueclaimed). I do have a death-triggered ability, but I'm not told what it is (have my suspicions, though - hence the Bomb claim).
I'm Beatrice.
Cobalt is scum.
Leech is probably scum.
Snow_Bunny, despite bad play, is probably town given how vehemently Cobalt is pushing for him to hammer.
We're still lynching me today - Cobalt should hammer, just in case.

Unvote, Vote: Tarhalindur

Fine.
I'm willing to see where this takes us. I've never seen scum advocate their own lynch, (nor can I imagine them doing so) so tar probably has a pro-town reason...

unvote
vote: Tarhalindur

I wouldn't do this if you didn't say you "*have* to die today"

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*twitch*
neto...
95% sure that was the hammer.

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wat?

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I enjoyed this game during the short time while I was alive. Thanks to UK for moding.

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I did....