926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Confucius]

Confirming.

I will read the game at my next opportunity. Please expect a post by Monday at the latest.

[Confucius]

I have read the game twice – once without knowing my role, and once while knowing my role.

I am indeed Sandor Clegane. I have also read the entire A Song of Ice and Fire series.

MacavityLock is scum. “Safe” hardly begins to describe his play. He bends with the breeze. He is playing to avoid offending players. I encourage those who have not done so to read his posts in isolation – he essentially takes no original stances. His only truly original stance: (i) his attack on The Inquisition for his role-claim, and (ii) his defense of himself.

There's something that seems off about this though. Inq doesn't make much sense as a maf NK target.

This statement, above all others, is damning in my eyes. He is trying to distance from his own actions. MacavityLock is surely the player who tried to kill The Inquisition last night, and now he is trying to lynch him instead.

Vote: MacavityLock

.

FoS: TheButtonMen

.

When deciding whether to vote a claimed Cop, the question is: Would you follow them if they claimed a guilty result? Even before reading my role, my answer was “no.” Everything about TheButtonMen's claim – and even his N1 result – is convenient. That said, I would like to give him another night just in case I change my mind overnight.

Kinetic is currently my third suspect. He speaks much of himself early on. Yet a superior man is modest in his speech, but exceeds in his actions. His actions thus far have largely been to attack those who are unlikely to defend themselves.

[Confucius]

Con, I would like to hear your thoughts on the Inq cases.

Claiming “abilities” is null in this game. The timing of his claim, while under absolutely no pressure, makes me believe his ability. I do not care if he is 1-Shot, 2-Shot, or infinite shot. The only question is his alignment.

Given the timing, I believe The Inquisition is either Town or Serial Killer. Either way, I believe somebody tried to kill him last night. Whoever that somebody is is probably scum.

I believe that scum are much more likely to be pushing a lynch on The Inquisition. After all, if you cannot nightkill him, you may as well lynch him. I believe that at the very least, MacavityLock tried to kill The Inquisition last night. If he has a partner, it is surely Kinetic. If there is a third partner, that player is likely taking an opposite stance.

That should suffice.

[Confucius]

Asking questions is not equivalent to taking stances. Your play this game has been merely to insinuate that you are suspicious of people, except for your attack on The Inquisition. I do not feel that you

actually

suspect anybody. And that is the mindset of scum.

"Given the timing" means I do not see why Mafia would claim 2-Shot Bulletproof at the beginning of Day Two without provocation. I also doubt that Mafia would have such an ability at all. That leaves Serial Killer or Town.

Based upon that information:

If The Inquisition is a Serial Killer, then the person who tried to kill him was almost certainly Mafia, and hence the Mafia are trying to lynch him today for fear that they are cross-killed overnight.

If The Inquisition is Town, then the person who tried to kill him was almost certainly Mafia or Serial Killer. This is because there is little reason to give a Townsperson a bulletproof – much less a 2-Shot bulletproof ability – if there is only one scumgroup. Finally, nobody has claimed responsibility for shooting The Inquisition, which dissuades me from believing a Vigilante is responsible.

[Confucius]

I'm interested in Con's point about the Inq - Mac dynamic.
If I read it correctly, he seems to be suggesting that they are unlikely to be scum buddies.

Con, is that a correct read?

Correct.

[Confucius]

MacavityLock, please convince me that you are a Vigilante as opposed to scum trying to pass yourself off as a Vigilante. Your play in this game leads me to believe you are the latter. I judge people by their play, not solely their claims. What in your play makes you Town?

You point to a crumb while ignoring the rest of your quote.

I'm still for lynching Buttonmen. But if Helio doesn't lynched, he needs a right vigging.

This leads me to believe that if you were actually a Vigilante, you would have vigged TheButtonMen overnight after Heliograph was lynched. This is made more apparent since your last posts of Day One all attack TheButtonMen.

Instead, you tried to kill The Inquisition. You did this despite the fact that you never once talked about The Inquisition on Day One. Why kill him then? Killing players you never talk about is an excellent way to dissociate a kill from yourself.

Finally, your first post of Day Two was:

Rai, why question The Inquisition specifically to start the day?

This makes me believe you were trying to preemptively paint Raivann as being the person who targeted The Inquisition, since you knew your kill on him had failed. This does seem like something a Vigilante would do. It strikes me as words from a guilty conscience.

[Confucius]

This does seem like something a Vigilante would do.

This is clearly meant to read:

This does

not

seem like something a Vigilante would do.

[Confucius]

Please respond to the most important part of my post when you have time. Namely:

MacavityLock, please convince me that you are a Vigilante as opposed to scum trying to pass yourself off as a Vigilante. Your play in this game leads me to believe you are the latter. I judge people by their play, not solely their claims. What in your play makes you Town?

[Confucius]

My play from my first post has been entirely consistent with me as vig, and I'd ask you to re-read me that way. Give me the benefit of the doubt for one re-read, that's all I ask.

I suppose that request is reasonable enough. Such a reread shall have to wait until Monday or Tuesday, however.

Query: Are there any limitations on your claimed Vigilante ability, by chance? A simple "yes" or "no" will suffice.

[Confucius]

I have reread the game. I did so sooner rather than later in order to avoid being influenced by others' opinions.

I am now less certain about MacavityLock being scum. I can technically see his play as a Vigilante trying to fade into the background on Day One, and potentially trying to be helpful by killing a lurker on Night One.

However. MacavityLock has not taken enough stances during the time he has asked questions and defended himself from attacks. Please firmly tell us your top two suspects.

Unvote: MacavityLock, Vote: TheButtonMen

.

I do not endorse unofficially voting on who MacavityLock should kill tonight. This simply allows scum to coordinate or mitigate accordingly. But I do endorse suggestions -- suggestions are difficult to counteract, and suggestions are also excellent sources of information later on in games. As it happens, I have two suggestions.

1.)

Kill Kinetic.

2.)

Attempt to kill The Inquisition. The possibility that The Inquisition is bluffing about a second immunity is interesting enough to test. Seeing as The Inquisition has claimed to be told when an immunity is used up, then even if The Inquisition lives through the night we should be better informed on the morrow.

I request that players stop calling me Town. Such commentary does little but paint a target. Instead of hunting for Town, please hunt for Scum.

[Confucius]

However. MacavityLock has not taken enough stances during the time he has asked questions and defended himself from attacks. Please firmly tell us your top two suspects.

However,

Vote: Raiv

. He has failed to answer questions, there is the kill method tell, and as the final straw, has taken an easy route in putting himself on my wagon. If I had a second vote, it would go to The Inq. I'm done with his lack of response to the questions put forth, and his 546 is awful.

Anything else you need?

Yes, this is precisely what I was looking for. Apologies.

~

On the subject of TheButtonMen, I would like to refer to my original stance. Please contemplate:

If TheButtonMen were to say tomorrow that he had a guilty result on somebody, would you follow him?

My answer is still "no." If TheButtonMen is Town, the only thing he is doing for us is soaking up a role-blocking. If TheButtonMen is scum, then I would rather him lynched now.

His play makes me believe that he is scum who has been getting by on a convenient claim, while hoping to draw out our real investigative role(s) on his way down. Now that he doesn't think he will be lynched today, he is more content to make cases against people. I would not be surprised to learn that he was directed to play more forcefully overnight by scumpartners, if he has any.

[Confucius]

I respectfully disagree. If TheButtonmen is scum of any sort, then not lynching him today allows him to use his influence and his vote to lynch an innocent today. It then allows him to use any scum abilities he may have overnight. It then gives him an opportunity to lynch a second innocent tomorrow, with more force (by claiming a guilty result), while possibly in a Lynch-or-Lose situation.

When I believe I have nailed scum, I very much dislike deferring lynches until later in the game without a good reason. We have already deferred his lynch once, and that has done nothing but result in Heilograph being lynched in a scrambled wagon at deadline. Had we instead lynched TheButtonmen yesterday, we may have never lynched Heilograph at all.

Scum who live a day longer than they should affect games in unforeseen ways.

~

I don't believe he's the best lynch for today. I believe that falls on Inq or Raiv

I would like you to meditate on the simplicity of my suggestion of having MacavityLock attempt to nightkill The Inquisition before you again suggest lynching The Inquisition.

[Confucius]

Then I shall be more plain.

I am an investigative role, but I am not a Cop. Given the amount of people already calling me Town after so few posts, I expect I would have been protected tonight anyways. I do not have any results concerning TheButtonmen, but I do still believe he is scum. I will not be going into detail about my role today since I find that completely unnecessary at this time.

Further, my plan is not that MacavityLock necessarily attempt to nightkill The Inquisition tonight. This is where suggestions come in. With any luck, my first suggestion (to kill Kinetic) is targeted towards scum. With such a combination, the scum are put in an awkward situation because they do not know what is going to happen overnight. He who does not know makes mistakes.

To make the situation even worse for scum, I will likely be using my investigative role on Kinetic, MacavityLock, or The Inquisition tonight. The best part about this plan is that if both MacavityLock and The Inquisition are legitimately Town, this plan is

hugely

detrimental to scum, as it will very likely result in us avoiding mislynching two very powerful Town roles. On the other hand, if one or both of them are scum, they should be caught by tomorrow.

By any stretch of the imagination, TheButtonMen has not claimed a role worth saving or testing any further. It is time for him to die.

[Confucius]

Confucius, you should be aware that if Button is our lynch, I will almost certainly be using my kill on either Raiv or Inq, not Kin.

Duly noted.

In that case, my investigation for tonight will likely revolve around you, The Inquisition, Raivann, or Kinetic.

[Confucius]

Back from V / LA: Doing catch up reading but this gem jumped out when I opened the thread.

I am an investigative role, but I am not a Cop. Given the amount of people already calling me Town after so few posts, I expect I would have been protected tonight anyways. I do not have any results concerning TheButtonmen, but I do still believe he is scum.

Lulwhut? I'm calling bullocks on that. You need to Full Claim that. If your town you already said enough that you got all the disadvantages of a full claim; If your scum you have a fuck ton of wiggle room with that claim.

I will say this. I am either a Tracker variant or a Watcher variant. I knew that MacavityLock targeted The Inquisition last night because I either tracked MacavityLock, or I watched The Inquisition. After reading the thread, I put two and two together and decided MacavityLock was scum. After rereading the game at MacavityLock's request, I can now see an argument for him being a Vigilante.

Reading my posts should make this painfully obvious. Also, even before I entered the game, flutter hinted about being suspicious of MacavityLock, which was undoubtedly prompted by the Night One result.

The reason I will not clarify which role I am is because scum have to work around Watchers and Trackers very differently. If I am a Watcher, scum merely need to avoid killing or role-blocking the obvious choices. If I am a Tracker, then I can very easily confirm town actions, or catch a particular player in a lie, so scum could send 'unlikely' scummates to do their bidding for the night.

I also have an implied restriction (which is why I say I am a variant), but it may not be one of any consequence.

[Confucius]

I'm wondering could The Inq, Buttonmen, and Confucius all be telling the truth and are PRs all have some limiting factor.

If you are insistent on making such conjecture, I will reiterate that my role merely has an implied restriction -- I do not actually know if I have one. The one thing Sandor Clegane will not approach is fire. The Mod has been less than helpful in clarifying whether any "fire" actually exists or existed in this game.

I do not think this is a limitation similar to claiming X-Shot, or a role whose "limitation increases as the game goes on," seeing as this may not in actuality be a limitation at all.

[Confucius]

No. If The Inquisition is a BP SK, he didn't kill anyone last night, which is very odd.

FoS: Percy

.

He who knows too much for the wrong reasons is often scum.

[Confucius]

Percy, please explain why you agree that you deserve the FoS. What conclusion did you jump to? Why do you believe it is a jump? What should your conclusion have been?

[Confucius]

^
The GLaDOS post is mine.

[Confucius]

The quotes of Percy:

Raivann

His Unvote on Seacore gives him a few points, but his vote on my predecessor sits really oddly, as though he's content to let another VI lurker get lynched without following up on any of the other players in the game. Mild scumread.

I appreciate it, Raivann, but is that all you've got? Seriously?

It's a few days before deadline, and your lurker vote didn't pan out, and you've said things like this:

The Inq. brought the pressure on himself by saying he was targeted by scum and that he was semi BP.

I'm kinda suspicious of the players who are voting him actually.

...and no comment?

I say we lynch The Inq, and if he flips scum, we lynch his buddy Raivann.

I think Raivann is looking like a very good lynch also, but nothing has persuaded me to move my vote from The Inquisition.

But right now, I am happier with a dead Raivann, the obv caught scum.

Unvote, Vote: Raivann.

So, who to lynch, who to lynch, who to lynch.

Right now I'm still thinking Raivann, but I want TheButtonmen to answer my two questions/requests before I make up my mind. I could get down with a The Inq lynch also.

Raivann should claim. It's less than 24 hours to deadline.

I actually believe Raivann now; his final posts read like town to me, and though the "gambit" wasn't very good, I don't think it makes him scum, and

I don't see anyone giving me compelling reasons to think that it makes him scum.

What concerns me is the bolded section of Percy's very last quote. He obviously saw "compelling reasons" to vote for Raivann since he had been voting Raivann for four pages, and then did not unvote Raivann when Raivann was one vote away from being lynched. Unvoting after you know a player has been lynched is disingenuous. Claiming that nobody has given "compelling reasons" for Raivann being scum while you yourself supposedly gave compelling reasons is further disingenuous.

FoS: Percy

I am now adding Percy to my suggestions of players to be nightkilled by MacavityLock. Obviously, TheButtonMen is a fourth suggestion since he was somehow not lynched for a second day in a row.

[Confucius]

And now is the point where I realize I read Percy's post too quickly -- he was saying that he did not see anybody giving compelling reasons why the gambit in particular made Raivann scum. Which is still odd since he himself does not give any compelling reasons why such a gambit would make Raivann Town. In theory, it could have been an attempt to (i) cast doubt on his own lynch, or (ii) distance from Kinetic, or (iii) see if he might get Kinetic to claim his role before deadline.

These are simply theoretical reasons, of course: I have never really suspected Raivann in this game. I hope Raivann is scum now that he is lynched, but seeing as this just looks like the Heilograph lynch all over again, I rather doubt it.

I am highly suspicious of Kinetic's and Seacore's votes. I don't know why they're voting Raivann rather than TheButtonmen (especially Seacore), and I get the strong feeling they're using the deadline to cover up their lack of motivations. If Raivann is lynched, then regardless of his flip, I think this is scummy play from both of them.

This post was made while Raivann was one vote away from being lynched. By not unvoting Raivann, Percy was tacitly consenting to a hammer.

Denouncing the make-up of a wagon while you yourself choose to stay on the wagon is scummy.

My second FoS on Percy stands, albeit on different reasoning.

[Confucius]

I do not see how it helps us whatsoever for you to suddenly say that you think Raivann is Town immediately after Raivann has been lynched. Either he is or he is not -- we will find out when the Mod returns.

I look behind the

purpose

of posts -- why do players post what they post?

Your purpose seemed to be to make yourself look good directly before night.

Raivann made the "gambit" quite literally five minutes after you asked Raivann to claim. Although I do not know (since I was not on-line at the time), I will bet that you were still watching the thread after Raivann claimed. If you believed Raivann was Town due to the gambit, you had ample opportunity to unvote Raivann before The Inquisition hammered two and half hours after Raivann gambited.

As I said before, I believe you very much tacitly consented to the hammer vote.

[Confucius]

No result.

I will save my rant for The Inquisition until after the game is over, but it is an unrewarding feeling to catch a liar only to find out they were Town.

Due to nightkilling flavors, I doubt MacavityLock is Mafia unless we are dealing with 2 v 2. If he is a Serial Killer, then lynching him is the wrong move today. Hence, I will not vote MacavityLock absent some pretty definitive proof that he is Mafia.

I was going to hold off on this vote while I was writing this post, but I cannot justify doing so. There is no way TheButtonmen is Town.

Vote: TheButtonmen

.

[Confucius]

Seacore's suggestion is not as bad as you make it out to be, MacavityLock. If you Vig the person we would have lynched tomorrow anyways, then the Town loses little by Vigging. If you Vig wrong, then if the Mafia kill either (i) fails for some reason, or (ii) kills the same person you targeted, then the game will still go on tomorrow, with a better position than we would otherwise be in. It might even be the case that you try to Vig a wrong player, but you are role-blocked anyways.

With that in mind,

if

you decide to kill somebody tonight, I would rather you take silent action. If we're fortunate, then we might actually gain a town-directed kill.

The exception is if we lynch a scum role-blocker today. In that case, it is probably safer to

not

shoot since I might be able to catch an incriminating / exculpatory result overnight that could have changed your mind. It's possible we still have a Doctor around. It is actually that possibility that makes me think we should

not

mass-claim today.

I think there are definitely pros and cons to shooting and not shooting, and I think both positions are reasonable.

[Confucius]

Also, Confucius, are you interested in making a case on Buttonmen?

I have already made my reasons for voting him rather clear.

When deciding whether to vote a claimed Cop, the question is: Would you follow them if they claimed a guilty result? Even before reading my role, my answer was “no.” Everything about TheButtonMen's claim – and even his N1 result – is convenient. That said, I would like to give him another night just in case I change my mind overnight.

On the subject of TheButtonMen, I would like to refer to my original stance. Please contemplate:

If TheButtonMen were to say tomorrow that he had a guilty result on somebody, would you follow him?

My answer is still "no." If TheButtonMen is Town, the only thing he is doing for us is soaking up a role-blocking. If TheButtonMen is scum, then I would rather him lynched now.

His play makes me believe that he is scum who has been getting by on a convenient claim, while hoping to draw out our real investigative role(s) on his way down. Now that he doesn't think he will be lynched today, he is more content to make cases against people. I would not be surprised to learn that he was directed to play more forcefully overnight by scumpartners, if he has any.

I am an investigative role, but I am not a Cop.

I have to say I do not like the feel of this counterwagon. It feels like I am watching the last-minute Heilograph lynch a second time.

Summary

:

1.)

I am an investigative role.

2.)

He avoided being lynched Day One solely for claiming Cop. His claim was made at a convenient time, and was itself a convenient claim.

3.)

The counterwagon on him Day One was last minute, and on Town.

4.)

His play changes from Day One to Day Two. My guess is this is the result of having a conversation with scum-partners.

5.)

The counterwagon on him Day Two was last minute, and on Town.

Additional factors

:

6.)

He still has not clarified his restriction despite being asked to do so multiple times.

7.)

He attacked me without actually voting me yesterday after I claimed.

8.)

There is now a smaller chance of there being a Serial Killer, which would make two separate investigative roles less appropriate.

Holistically, it is difficult to imagine a case for him being Town. Still, (and this is obvious) he should claim his result before we lynch him.

[Confucius]

Yesterday's momentum, summarized:

~ Bogre at 4 votes, wagon dissipates when Percy replaces in
~ MacavityLock at 3 votes, until claiming Vigilante
~ Raivann then hit 2 votes
~ TheButtonmen then hit 3 votes
~ Raivann then had 3 quick votes in a row (literally three posts in a row)
~ Raivann switches to TheButtonmen, The Inquisition then makes a dual vote between TheButtonmen / Raivann, and then Percy apparently tried to switch to TheButtonmen

Had that last section of votes been able to stick, TheButtonmen would have been put at 5 votes: myself, Mina, Raivann, The Inquisition, and Percy. If nothing else, the make-up of the players who were trying to lynch TheButtonmen yesterday -- which already include three dead townspeople -- should tell the tale.

It is pretty clear to me that there were two viable wagons at the end of yesterday. I am firmly of the belief that Raivann a compromise lynch, and a counterwagon.

[Confucius]

I don't see how answering that question hurts us.

I targeted The Inquisition last night.

[Confucius]

@Confucius:

Why Inq?

That would require me to full-claim, which I am not willing to do at the request of scum.

The only reason I agreed to claim my target was (i) in case somebody could verify it at some point of the game, or (i) in case I die overnight and the information turns out to be important for some reason.

[Confucius]

*waggles eyebrows at Cersei*

~

Faraday, I don't so much think the Town was underpowered so much as I think the Mafia was overpowered. I really do not see a valid reason for all of the scum having abilities. I think the game would have been better without the Scum Tracker and without the Scum Doctor. I agree that a Mafia Godfather is inappropriate with a 2-Shot Cop. I do, however, think the Scum Roleblocker is reasonable given the presence of a Vigilante (especially one who apparently did not actually have a restriction).

~

Our actions:

Night One

I [flutter / Miserable at Best] tracked MacavityLock, who targeted The Inquisition
Kinetic role-blocked TheButtonmen
Mina killed xvart

Night Two

I killed Percy
Kinetic role-blocked TheButtonmen
Mina protected Kinetic

Night Three

I killed Locke Lamora
Kinetic role-blocked MacavityLock
Mina protected Kinetic

~

Just in case nobody noticed, I was put in the awkward position of replacing a player who had claimed to be Sandor Clegane, which was actually Mina's role-name. This forced me to play to keep Mina alive as long as possible (especially over Kinetic), since if Mina died I was necessarily next in line for death. Even if Kinetic died as Cersei, there was still a good chance I would be next simply on the Lannister-scum reasoning. This is one of the things that prompted me to play Days Two and Three as forcefully as I did, while I still could.

~

Thanks to all for playing.

[Confucius]

Since we've all consented, here is the Quicktopic.