Mini 219: Tom Cruise Mafia -- It's a Wrap!

[Yosarian2]

Hello everyone. MeMe just asked me to replace windslicer, so I'm in as a replacement for him now. I'll have more to say once I have a chance to read the game, which should hopefully be tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Alright, after a quick skim of the thread, here are some general comments.

1. I'm not sure what a "day cop" is. From the discription, "he stopped crimes before they happened". Perhaps some kind of roleblocker or doc, then? I really wonder about the choice of words, though. If he's a day roleblocker or doc, would that imply the existance of a day-killer, or am I reading to far into this?

2. I don't really see anyone who looked terribly suspicious in yesterday's lynch. After Jonney was caught lying about his role-name, his lynch was inevitable. No useful tells there that I can see. If Jonney had been scum, I would have been suspicious over some of Talia's "Oh, he's probably just a newbie" attitude; but as it turns out, she was actually right about that. (A forum mafia newbie, anyway; chat mafia tends to be a lot more fast and loose about fake roleclaims from townies, from what I've seen).

3. I've got to say, I'm most suspicious of Phobes right now, because I just don't like the way he's throwing around votes so easily in a possible lynch or lose scenerio. If there's one rule I've learned, it's that if you are town you should NEVER drop early quick votes like that in a possible lynch or lose scenerio, because the mafia could build a quick bandwagon out of that.

Even if we're not in an actual lynch or lose situation, I think we can expect that there is at least 2 scum and 1 SK or 2 groups of 2 scum each, so with only 4 votes to lynch, any incorrect bandwagon could quickly lead to a mislynch if scum from different groups or scum+SK jump on it, and no matter what the exact setup is, we're definatly in a situation where if we mislynch the good guys will be a minority tommorow. So I would expect that a GG, especally an experenced player, would be more careful with his votes then Phobes has been so far today; Phobes voted for windslicer (me) just to "keep him interested" and then quickly switched the vote over to Seol right after Seol accused him. I wouldn't have a problem with those kind of votes on a day 1, but with the situation we're in now I do NOT think that it's the time or place to throw votes around so carelessly.

fos:Phobes

. Phobes, if you are town, I would strongly request that you unvote and wait until we've had some discussion before you vote for anyone else.

[Yosarian2]

And yet you don't even mention Seol's vote of Phoebus.

FOS: Yosarian

(shrug) Seol FOS's Phoebus, then Phoebus voted Seol in response to Seol's attack on him, THEN Seol voted Phoebus. Even in a lynch or lose situation, there's no added risk in voting for someone who's already voting for you, and I'm less suspicios of Seol for starting out with an FOS and then progressing to a vote after some lengthy analysis then for Phoebus threw out a vote just to get someone's attention in this situation and then switched it to someone else in a few posts an an OMGUS vote in the risky situation we're in right now.

[Yosarian2]

Heh Yosarian.

It's been what? 36 hours since I voted? You'd think some opportunistic scum would've tagged on at least one more vote during this time in a lynch or lose situation?
I'm sure they wouldn't all pile on. I'm also sure they wouldn't all sit back.

Yeah, like I said, I think it's more likely that we're in a 2 scum 1 SK situation, or a 2 groups of 2 scum each situation, but it is possible we're in lynch or lose. You're right that if we were in lynch or lose, I would expect the scum to pile on my bandwagon, but the thing is, if you are a good guy, then you voted right away in a situation that

might

have been lynch or lose, and might have cost us the game. The only way you could have known for sure, at the time, if we were in lynch or lose or not would be if you were scum.

Even if we're not in lynch or lose, there are probably at least 3 bad guys (2 scum+1 SK), and it's only 4 to lynch. You don't see the danger in throwing votes around like party favors? And you don't understand why I'm trying to get everyone to stop voting?

I never use FOS. It's worthless if you ask me. I want results. Votes get results.

You don't even use FOS in possible lynch or lose situations where one wrong vote could cost the town the game?

Moreover you shrug about Seol's vote on me and completely disregard the possibility that I could be a townie and the remaining scum could pile on me. In a sense, you're defending him aren't you? My vote's not OMGUS. I'd already indicated him as a potential recipient in my first post of the day.

(shrug) I'm not trying to defend anyone at this point. That would be foolish, as almost half the town has got to be BG's at this point, and especally because I do think Seol looks a little suspicious for supporting the wrong side of the lynch yesterday. What I said was that:

Even in a lynch or lose situation, there's no added risk in voting for someone who's already voting for you

If one of the two of you is scum, there's no risk that that the remaining scum could pile on the other one, because one scum is already on that bandwagon. The only danger is if one townie votes for another in a Lynch or Lose situation, so that's only a danger if the two of you are both townies. And if you are both townies, and the scum wanted to pile onto a townie vote, then you were already voting for him.

That's all I was saying. Also, the reason I didn't specifically mention his vote because I wanted to see what his reaction would be if you did follow my request change your vote on him to an FOS for the moment. If he's a townie, I would expect him to do the same for the same reasons; if he's scum, I figured he's be tempted to try to to stick to his guns. (shrug) Basically I figured I'd get more interesting reactions this way, but as it seems you have no intention of unvoting anyway, the point is now moot.

WindSlicer, a newbie, lurked.

In this case it's pretty clear that WindSlicer just didn't have time to play anymore, as he asked MeMe to replace him because of "limited game time". I like lurker hunting in general, but it should be pretty clear it dosn't apply in this case.

His replacement prefers to look at only one side of the argument and disregard the other possibility.

Actually, I haven't said anything about the argument you Seol were having. I did say that I was suspicious of the way you have been behaving today, and you have not yet given a good reason for why a GG would want to vote in that situation.

He prefers voting after an FoS. He's FoSing me at this time. How long till a vote?

There's probably a mafia of at least 2 people. It's 4 people to lynch. There's no way I'm going to put a quick second vote on someone without the general agreement of the town, and I hope no one else would either. I'd feel safer if no one was voting at all, but it seems like you've decided to be stubborn on the issue.

He's also defending Seol.

No, I'm attacking you because you committed actions that appear to not be pro-town; IE, voting in a situation where voting does not appear to me to be a pro-town action. The main thing you did that I thought looked suspicious was voting for a lurker "to get his attention" in a situation where that seemed a very dangerous move for a townie to make, especally if you were willing to change your vote quickly in response to an FOS someone else put on you. Spin it however you want, you look suspicious because of how you have acted today, and trying to turn it around on me and try to question my motives for pointing that out does not change the suspicious way you have behaved..

[Yosarian2]

[
I get the 2 groups of 2 argument. How do you suppose it's more likely we have 2 and 1? 3 is the regular mini complement for mafia. 3 scum and 1 SK balance each other well. Make 2 scum and 1 SK and you tilt the balance towards both, the SK and the town with two lucky pot shots and/or cop investigations.

(shrug) I've seen minis with 2 and 1 before, like the Gian mafia we were both in for example, so I tend to think that a fairly likely possibility. But anyway, the possibilites, as I see them, are

A. 3 mafia, 1 Sk
B. 2 groups of 2 mafia each
C. 2 mafia, 1 SK

That's why I said things like "there are probably at least 3 scum" and "there is probably at least 1 group of at least 2 mafia". I guess we could also be dealing with just 2 SK's, but I've never seen that before in a mafiascum mini, and tend to think it's unlikely.

I will admit this is all based on gut and instinct. I will also admit that what you say makes pure, cold logical sense. What does not make sense and makes your logic loose some of its sheen is the failure to admonish Seol., since all of my logic applies to him and more over, he's voted me second where either one of us prolly has to be townie for scum to pile on or both scum, which I think anyone will agree, is unlikely.

The scum tell I'm speaking of is that you seemed very willing to first vote for a lurker and then change your vote to someone else a few posts later in a possible lynch or lose situation. When I'm a good guy in a possible lynch or lose situation, I wouldn't vote for anyone unless I was as sure as I could be that they were scum, so the fact that you first voted for me as just a lurker vote and were then willing to change your vote to someone else looks really questionable. I don't like Seol's vote either, but the fact that you voted for two seperate people in a short space of time in this situation looks more scummy to me, so I focused on you.

]You don't even use FOS in possible lynch or lose situations where one wrong vote could cost the town the game?

If you will refer to the reason I've given above for voting Seol, you'll see why I'm voting.
In lynch or lose, I don't FOS. I don't vote and I indicate whom I might vote for.
I did this in my first post for the day. The funny thing here is that your outrage for voting seems more concerned for Seol than for the initial vote for WindLurker, your former self.

I don't FOS.

Actually, my origional post on the subject was this:

Even if we're not in an actual lynch or lose situation, I think we can expect that there is at least 2 scum and 1 SK or 2 groups of 2 scum each, so with only 4 votes to lynch, any incorrect bandwagon could quickly lead to a mislynch if scum from different groups or scum+SK jump on it, and no matter what the exact setup is, we're definatly in a situation where if we mislynch the good guys will be a minority tommorow. So I would expect that a GG, especally an experenced player, would be more careful with his votes then Phobes has been so far today; Phobes voted for windslicer (me) just to "keep him interested" and then quickly switched the vote over to Seol right after Seol accused him. I wouldn't have a problem with those kind of votes on a day 1, but with the situation we're in now I do NOT think that it's the time or place to throw votes around so carelessly.

How do you get from that that I was "more interested in your vote for Seol then your vote for windslicer"? It seems pretty clear that I was mostly interested in the quick and careless way you seemed to vote, voting for two different people in a short span of time like that, one of them being nothing but a lurker vote and the other being in response to an attack made on you, in a lynch or lose situation.

Seol may be scum. We know there's two killing groups so it's even possible from my point of view that you and Seol may both be scum in different groups. (shrug) I still stand by my initial comment that your rapid votes, and rapid change of votes, looks scummy.

I'm not trying to defend anyone at this point. That would be foolish, as almost half the town has got to be BG's at this point, and especally because I do think Seol looks a little suspicious for supporting the wrong side of the lynch yesterday.

I will concede you are not actively defending Seol, no.
You never said, OMG! Seol =/ teh evil!
Your failure to admonish him for voting carries the implication that you defend him. You see where I'm going?

I didn't attack you just for voting, I attacked you for voting very quickly, based on nothing but a lurker hunt, and then changing your vote to someone else just as quickly, in a possible lynch or lose situation. (shrug) I suppose I could have attacked both you and Seol at the same time, but I chose instead to focus my attack on the person who was looking scummiest.

Again, lack of reactions from others would indicate this is not townie v. townie.

(shrug) If there is a group of 3 scum, that's probably true. If there's 2 and 2, or 2 and 1, then it's harder to predict how they would act if there was a single vote on someone.

You can go check in other games if you want to analyse/meta game my play style if you like. Seol's is definitely markedly different.

Yeah, you mentioned that before. Could you be more specific about thatt?

There's probably a mafia of at least 2 people. It's 4 people to lynch. There's no way I'm going to put a quick second vote on someone without the general agreement of the town, and I hope no one else would either. I'd feel safer if no one was voting at all, but it seems like you've decided to be stubborn on the issue.

For some odd reason, that seems exceedingly like currying favour and a pretense of being pro town and considerate.

(shrug) You asked a question, I answered it. No, I have no intention of voting carelessly, which should have been rather clear from my other posts today. What more do you want me to say on the subject?

You've mentioned a 2 member group as most likely. Here, you say at least 2. Do you know something Seol does as well?

As I explained earlier in the post, there should logically be at least one group of at least two mafia, and there might be a group of three mafia. So "at least 2" seems accurate and fairly obveous.

No, I'm attacking you because you committed actions that appear to not be pro-town; IE, voting in a situation where voting does not appear to me to be a pro-town action. The main thing you did that I thought looked suspicious was voting for a lurker "to get his attention" in a situation where that seemed a very dangerous move for a townie to make, especally if you were willing to change your vote quickly in response to an FOS someone else put on you. Spin it however you want, you look suspicious because of how you have acted today, and trying to turn it around on me and try to question my motives for pointing that out does not change the suspicious way you have behaved..

You wanna call it spin? Be my guest, doctor. I have explained my convictions. Evaluate them.

(shrug) When your primary defense seems to be "two different people have said I look scummy, so they must both be scum together", and when you keep trying to change the subject from your own scummy looking behavior to Seol, then yeah, I call that spin. It seems like you're trying to trick me into either defending Seol, so you can 'prove' we're scum together, or into attacking him, to take the pressure off you. I'm not going to bite. Seol is on my list of suspicious looking people, but at the moment, he's lower on the list then you, and I think I've made it very clear why.

Oh and your rolled eyes are duly noted. Nice.

(Had to be done. )

[Yosarian2]

Talk about misrepresentation!
I have

never

said that. It was Yosarian2.

That's what I get for composing my response in the quote window. I missed some tags, and when I was responding I thought it was you saying that.

FOS: Yosarian2

, see my previous post for reasoning.

(shrug) Anyone who is on the wrong side of the bandwagon is going to be inherently slightly more suspicious looking then anyone who isn't. It's not a huge tell, of course, but it's a reason that I would be disinclined to defend you.

On the other hand, Seol, you are now the only one who is voting. Until you unvote,

fos:Seol

[Yosarian2]

I've had quite a busy weekend.

Anyway, I'm not so sure that I'd vote for Seol at the moment, but rather vote for Yosarian. You say Seol may be scum on at least two different occasions, and I think three. Even if Seol does seem less suspicious than Phoebus, I'd expect a pro-town player to break down one side of the fence as well as the other. If Yosarian is scum, I do think it's more likely for Seol to be scum.

(shrug) Hey, all I said was that Phobus's rapid voting and unvoting and then voting again in a possible lynch or lose situation did not look like a pro-town action. Phobus himself apparently agreed that he made a mistake by voting so early, because he unvoted. So what, exactally, is your problem with me?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, you've kept at Phoebus with a type of tunnel vision, and I think that's scummy.

(shrug) I made that one post where I said I didn't like those two votes of his, and after that I've been attacked over and over again about that post and have had to keep defending my logic over and over again. I'm really not sure why I keep being attacked on the subject, as even Phoebus admited that my origional post was a completly logical point. Why is it he didn't just admit he made a mistake, unvote, and then let the town move on to another subject?

[Yosarian2]

Alright, now that everyone's unvoted, I can breathe a little easier and look at other issues.

I stopped for a minute, pulled back from the thread, and thought; if I was scum, what would I want to do in this situation we have today? At this point, if I was in a group of either 2 or 3 scum, I would not only be trying to avoid being lynched, I would be trying to avoid attracting the attention of the SK/other scum group; at this point, the town could theoretically hit every lynch and still lose, the town's best chance of winning is to hope for a crosskill between the different scum groups, and I'm sure the scum know that as well. So if I were a scum, I would probably have wanted to go into lurk mode, and keep a low profile today in order to try to avoid any attention from anyone, ESPECALLY from the SK or other killing group.

Looking at today, the three people who haven't posted very much content today are Fuldu, Tailia, and Astro. We really need to hear more from all of them.

Out of the three, Astro seems to me to be most suspicious looking lurker; he was consistantly active throughout day 1, posting fairly regularly. But so far day 2, he only posted once, a short post of only a few lines that just threw a general FOS at a couple of people without any actual explination or reasoning, and after that, he has lurked for the past 6 days. Not only that, but looking at his profile, it looks like he has been quite active in other games over the past 6 days, posting in a different game just today. So, Astro, is there any specific reason why you have been lurking in this game?

[Yosarian2]

I also think it's fairly important, regardless of any "good" vibes Yos may be giving, which, to me, he is not. WindSlicer did ask to be replaced when under pressure. I know from experience that playing as newbie scum can be daunting.

(shrug) I can't really comment on WindSlicer's motivation, of course. Personally, if I had limited time and had to drop out of one my mafia games, I'd drop out of the one I was having less fun in, and based on his early game posts in this game, I don't think WindSlicer was having a lot of fun in this game; it looks like he kind of ignored/forgot about this game for a while, got some lurker votes, and then got frustrated over getting lurker voted. That seems like fairly common behavior from a newbie of any alignment.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting...

Normally, I would believe such a claim, because it's so easily testable. The problem is, if we're in lynch or lose, if don't lynch scum today we might never get a chance to test a claim like that, and if Astro is scum he probably knows that; if there's ever a time for such a bold false claim, this would be it. I'm not sure what to think at this point, but I think I would like to see an actual role name claim from Astro, even if he dosn't want to claim all of his abilities.

[Yosarian2]

You have to think - would no lynch hurt us? If it would then we don't lynch Astro yet. If not, that's fine by me. I'm pretty sure no lynch is extremely detrimental at the moment.

The real question is, do we believe Astro? If he's lying, then lynching him would be just as good as lynching any other scum. If he's telling the truth, then lynching him might be almost as bad as lynching any other good guy, depending on what the setup is and how lucky we get tonight.

[Yosarian2]

Seol

I'm going to ignore Yosarian's shrug in post 256. I'm very close to voting for him. He's trying to appear too nonchalant about his predecessor's actions.

(shrug) What am I supposed to say? I'm caught in a position where I'm forced to defend an action (asking to be replaced in one game while still playing in another) that I have never done and would never do. I don't think wanting to be replaced is a scum tell; as a general rule I don't think that scum want to get replaced more then townies do, but I do agree that the way he did it is strange. All I can do is try to guess why he might have asked to be replaced; if he was still in this game we could ask him, but of course we can't. I'm not sure what you mean by "nonchalant", as I did adress the issue as much as anyone could have.

[Yosarian2]

I think Yos and Seol are in cahoots and would vote either.
Yos more for behaviour of his predecessor (meta-gaming) and his brazen attempts at being smooth.

So you're going to vote for me because I'm "smooth"? Or even worse, I'm "brazenly trying to be smooth"?

I'm not even sure what that means. I'm trying to find scum and to convince the town not to lynch me, just like anyone would be in my position. Meanwhile, you're pretty much just ignoring everything I say, and instead just creating excuses out of thin air to vote for me that don't actually mean anything. First I'm "trying to appear too nonchalant" and now I'm "brazenly smooth." And you also seem to think that if you just keep repeating that I'm "defending Seol", that everyone in the town will just go along with it, no matter how little you have to actually back up tha statement.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, and I would have no problem with a mass claim at this point. I would like either Phoebus or Astro to claim first, because I'm most suspicious of them at this point, but whatever the town thinks is fine with me.

[Yosarian2]

That's just it.
You're not contributing much, are you?
You're presenting ALL sides of an argument. How useful is that!

Again, what are you talking about? Are you even talking to me?

How is it that none of your posts address all arguments and then suggest a good plan for getting scum lynched?

Adress all arguments? You have not made a single argument in the last several posts. You just keep making vague statements that mean almost nothing, without ever explaining what you mean or backing up your arguments with anything. It's pretty clear that, at this point, you're just simply looking for an excuse to vote for me.

In any case, so far today, I have been trying to find scum. I pointed out that your actions were scummy looking, and I pointed out that the way Astro suddenly started to lurk was scummy. Meanwhile, all you've done is try to throw suspicion back on anyone who thinks you look suspicious.

Instead of that, by your own admission, you're more concerned about being lynched.

And now you're just simply lying about what I said. What I said was:

I'm trying to find scum and to convince the town not to lynch me

When did I ever say that I was "more concerned" about being lynched? Why are you so concerned with getting me lynched that you're either ignoring my posts or lying about what I said?

As far as who gets to pick in case of a claim, I doubt your opinion holds much water. However, again, you choose to ignore Seol. Astro is scummy, yes. I'm scummy?

Yes, you are scummy. You started out the day in a lynch or lose situation with a lurker vote. You then quickly changed that to an OMGUS vote. When two different people both said you looked scummy for different reasons, your defense was "Look, they're both attacking me, they must both be scum together!" and every single time I say anything about how scummy you are acting, your only response is to try to change the subject to Seol or to make some vauge mostly meaningless reason about why you want to vote for me (you just had another one in your latest post, where you say I'm "pushing your buttons")

Basically, you just don't look like a good guy who's looking for scum; you seem more interested in just trying to create excuses to vote for me instead of actually reading the thread and looking for scum. It's interesting that a little while ago, you were mostly looking at Seol as scum, and now you're "going to vote for me in 24 hours". The only thing that changed in the meantime is that I said, again, that I'm suspicious of you; which shouldn't be surprising as you haven't done anything to take the suspicion off of you that I pointed out earlier and that even you agreed was for a logical reason. So when I attack you, you mis-represent my posts, try to change the subject to someone else, and then threaten to vote for me if I don't "change your mind"? How can I change your mind when you have not given a single solid reason why you're suspicious of me, and you aren't even really responding to my posts?

Unless you can explain your reasons a little better then vauge phrases like me being "brazenly smooth" or "pushing your buttons", it really seems like you're threatening to vote for me because I've attacked you. I really don't think a good guy would act the way you have today, or the way you're acting right now, trying to use the threat of your vote to take the pressure off of you in a possible lynch or lose situation.

I'll be glad to do a full analysis of all of your posts once I have a little more time, probably tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian

Don't bother with the PBPA. With my

vote: Yosarian2

, you are probably going to retaliate.

I suppose it's too much to ask that you give an actual reason for your vote, huh? Or at least try to explain what you meant by some of your earlier uber-vague attacks on me? For example, explain what you mean by me being "brazenly smooth" and how that is supposed to be a scum tell? Or why you've pretty consistantly misrepresented my posts all day? Or why you're only suspicious of people who are suspicious of you?

If you could explain why you are suspicious of me, instead of just throwing generic, meaningless accusations against me, and then refusing to explain or defend them when asked, then I would be more inclined to think that you might be a misguided townie instead of a manipulating scum.

For the record, I don't "retaliate" with my votes, I vote for whoever I am most suspicius of at that moment. Right now, it's a toss-up between you and Astro, and there's no way I'm going to let Astro off the hook for his scummy looking sudden day 2 lurking until he starts posting more.

I don't know whether I said it here or elsewhere, but there will probably never be cold clear logic to my posts. All I know is I've done pretty good with pinging scum in minis lately, whether I have been able to explain my reasons are not. Sometimes I've become Cassandra, other times I've been standing tall at the end.

Translation: Don't ask for reasons for my actions and words, everyone, just blindly follow whatever I say. You can trust me. Really.

Here, I've tried to explain my way. Apparently, nobody can/wants to see it that way.

You have not explained anything at all. You are getting more and more vague and less and less willing to explain or defend or elaborate on anything the more the day goes on, and yet even while your arguments are getting more and more specious and illogical, you seem to be getting more and more convinced that you know who is scum and who should be lynched today.

Want to call this defeat? Want to call this scummy? Be my guests. I will supply a claim when my turn comes. Though it's great to see games coming down to claims on day two.

I don't really care that much about claims; they're too easy to fake, especally on a game with so many possible roles. I look at behavior, and so far today, you have acted in a way that I would more likely expect scum to act then in a way I would expect a good guy to act.

[Yosarian2]

As for the discussion about the possible setup, I still think a 3-1 split is unlikely, for the simple reason that if there's 3 mafia and 1 SK in a game that starts with night, all the town has to do is miss the day 1 lynch (which the town usually does) and there's a risk that on day 2 the GG's will the minority. That just dosn't seem very balanced to me.

[Yosarian2]

Is there a specific order we're claiming in at this point? And are we claiming names, or full roles?

[Yosarian2]

Ok. I am Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, from Top Gun.

[Yosarian2]

I think Phoebus is the SK, which means that I don't want to vote for him today.

This was poorly phrased. What I was trying to say was that

if Phoebus is scum

, I think he's the SK.

Interesting speculation. Where do you get that idea from?

Personally, I was thinking that if Astro is scum, his most likely partner is Phoebus, because of the wierd way the two of them appear to have been trying to distance themselves from each other with weak attacks for each other while always having stronger attacks on others in the same posts.

[Yosarian2]

[

Interesting speculation. Where do you get that idea from?

Personally, I was thinking that if Astro is scum, his most likely partner is Phoebus, because of the wierd way the two of them appear to have been trying to distance themselves from each other with weak attacks for each other while always having stronger attacks on others in the same posts.

Acually, scratch that. I was getting that impression based on Phoebus's day 2 posts, but on a re-read it looks like Phoebus did appear to be applying some actual pressure on Astro day 1. Now I'm not so sure.

[Yosarian2]

I second that. Nobody's really sided with him so far, so if he's got partners, he/she is among the less talkative here. I won't exclude the idea that he's our SK, but the mafia is the ones we want to look for at the moment, right?

Actually, I'm not sure about that. We've had votes today on multiple people, and no sudden bandwagons on anyone, which makes me think there probably isn't a 3 person mafia in this game. At the very least, I know for a fact that either there isn't a 3 person mafia, or if there is that Phoebus is a part of it, because his vote was on me for quite a while and no one else joined the bandwagon.

In any case, if there's a 2 person mafia and a SK, the best move for the town today would probably be to lynch the SK, because then we know there will only be one nightkill tonight which would leave us in a 3 town 2 scum position tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Well, if we're in a simple "2 town 1 scum 1 sk" situation, or a simple "3 town 1 SK" situation, no-lynch would be the right move. There's one problem, though. Astro claimed to be able to survive one lynch. Now, if I was modding a game, I might give a SK an ability like that. What if Astro is SK, is the last bad guy, and can survive one lynch? If we do a no-lynch today, and try to lynch him tommorow but fail, we'd lose.

Basically, if Astro really is a townie who is immune to one lynch, we don't lose anything by lynching him today, and we confirm his ability. If Astro is a SK who can survive one lynch, and is the last BG left, then we HAVE to lynch him today AND tommorow or else the town loses.

Astro, if you lied about your ability, it's time to say so now. If you actually can survive one lynch, then I think we should lynch you today.

[Yosarian2]

Asto, answer the question.

Were you telling the truth about being able to survive a lynch, or not?

[Yosarian2]

Astro, if you actually do have a "plan" other then "let's see if I can get everyone to lynch the SK so I can win", I'd like to hear it. You have to realize that at this point, it wouldn't make any sense for either me or Fuldu to "just trust you" and that you would have to get both of us to vote for Phoebus in order to get a 3 vote lynch, right?

[Yosarian2]

And here, you just assume, don't you?
Scumbag! You know you're it.
I just don't see how you'd think a girl is evil over a bloodthirsty vamp with a lynch immunity - read SK benefit.

You're the only one who has claimed a non Tom Cruise role. On the other hand, both dead scum were not Tom Cruise. So, yeah, your claim is suspicious. That's not the primary reason I'm suspicious of you, of course, I went into some detail about that yesterday. But never mind that, it dosn't really matter at this point because we can't afford to lynch you today unless...well, let's just see what Astro has to say.

But anyway, I don't assume anything at this point. It's quite possible that both you and Astro are scum in different groups, and it's also quite possible that only one of you is scum. I still say that if Astro has one lynch immunity, then lynching him today is better then a no-lynch, because it gives us more information and makes it possible to lynch him tommorow if we need to (if there is a tommorow, of course) and has no real disadvantage over a no-lynch.

Plus, there's the added bonus that if Astro is lying about being immune to a lynch, I expect him to admit it once it becomes clear that we're about to lynch him unless he admits to the lie.

[Yosarian2]

On the other hand, if Astro does claim what I think he's about to claim, then we actually might have a way to win this game today safely. Let's see.

[Yosarian2]

But if he's lying, then we've killed a scum and screwed the town..

Yeah, that is the only risk. But I expect that if he is lying, and he's about to be lynched, he'll admit he's lying, and we can avoid that and get more information.

Also, if there are two scum left, they're likely to target each other,

if they know who the other scum is

. So if astro is lying scum I'd like to prove it before the end of the day so that if Phoebus is the other scum, he'll know who to kill. If that makes any sense.

[Yosarian2]

Let me repeat this one more time...I really need to hear what Astro is going to claim his plan is. If his plan is what I think it is, there might be a way for the town to win, but he has to explain it first.

[Yosarian2]

Heh...Lestat the Tom Cruise 50% roleblocker?

Anyway, that's two votes for no lynch, with Fuldu, and I don't see either of them changing their minds, so I guess it's going to be a no-lynch. (shrug) No sense drawing it out.

vote:no lynch

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm. It looks like the only scum left is probably the SK, because there was only one kill, and it was the "medicated" kill, which sounds like a SK, not the "professional handgun" kill, which sounds like scum. The only question left is, which one of you is the SK?

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) So, my options are either lynch Phoebus or no-lynch, huh? Interesting. Well, I'm sure a no-lynch will end badly, so I'll take a chance.

vote:Phoebus

[Yosarian2]

Go scum!

Yeah, it really was a strange endgame. I wasn't sure if Astro was town, SK, or unkillable townie; I figured he was either the SK or an unkillable townie, and that either way his vote for phoebus was him offering me a tie, and I jumped on the chance; I didn't like my odds if we ended up doing a no-lynch.

I've got to say I really felt like I made some major mistakes early on, right after I took over Windslicer's role, and just got lucky.

[Yosarian2]

I took the draw rather than to chance on Phoebus and Yosarian2 targetting eachother... I suspected that Phoebus could be right about Yos targetting him the night before and found him immune to nightkills (only single-shot, but Yos wouldn't know) and therefore the only way to get rid of Phoebus was to lynch him.

I know my play must have seemed pretty bizarre to Fuldu, but there was some sort of plan behind it all. My goal yesterday was to lynch Phoebus and get Yosarian2 to target me at night, which would be a town victory. Even if Yosarian2 targetted Fuldu, we'd get a draw.

My mistake was that I thought the Seol/Yos2 connection was obvious after day 2, so I started hinting at my plan before I had Fuldu convinced I was on his side. I knew I'd have to make an improbable claim in order to give Yosarian2 a reason to vote Phoebus as well, so I wanted to wait as long as I could with this. Fuldu forced me to claim at a time where he thought I was scum, no wonder he didn't buy my claim in that situation.

I pictured this as a town/scum draw, had I known that it was a me/scum draw, I'd have considered a no lynch yesterday and hoped for them to target eachother, but that would have been a gamble.

I can't say I'm really disappointed with the way things went considering we lost so many power roles the first two nights.

Heh...the funny thing is, I was pretty sure Phoebus was the SK all along...until you claimed roleblocker. That made me really wonder, because I had been considering claiming roleblocker for the exact same reason, in order try and get Phoebus lynched that night.

In fact, after you claimed roleblocker, I was thinking about doing the same thing in response, to say "No, I'm the roleblocker. Today we lynch Phoebus, I'll roleblock Astro, and then tommorow we can win." Fuldu would have had to assume that one of us was telling the truth, and at that point should theoretically have been willing to go along with the lynch. Then if you actually were a roleblocker and did stop my kill, the game would have come down to Fuldu deciding if he should lynch me or lynch you, and I thought I would have had a chance there, even if me and Fuldu had to lynch you twice.

[Yosarian2]

It's fascinating how things that seem so obvious when you know about them are hard to see for the uninformed. In this case, I couldn't grasp how Fuldu didn't see that Yos2 was mafia. I hope I didn't offend you, Fuldu, with my [335] I felt I had to be a bit aggressive to make you unvote. In hindsight, the post is probably closer to sarcasm than aggressiveness.

50% roleblocker with one-shot lynch immunity is admittedly a silly role. As mentioned, my plan was to show my innocence before claiming, since I had to claim something that would make Yos2 target me.

I wasn't going to target you, because basically, you were so sure that I was scum, I figured if you really were the SK, I was dead and was going to lose that night no matter who I targeted, so there was no gain to targeting you. On the other hand, if you were not the SK, targeting Phoebus would be the better choice. Basic game theory; there was no possible scenerio I could see where I'd be better off targeting you instead of Phoebus.