Mini 954 ~ Mafia at the 11th Hour (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

Definitely NZ. If you want to make an Australian really angry, ask them if they want "another shrimp on the barbie".
(No-one in Australia says "shrimp". We say "prawn". The line was changed because they knew no-one in the US would know what a "prawn" was. We're still pretty raw about it.)

Shrimp and Prawn are'nt the same thing, so the terms really ought not to be interchanged, FWIW.
Well, pointing that out is the only reason I wanted to replace into this game. @Mod: You can replace me now...

[Herodotus]

Nah, cancel that request.

Don't make me prawn you, shrimp. ~Vi

@Percy and Porkens, have the two of you ever played in a game together before?


I was following along with the game during day 1 with the idea of replacing at the time, so I had some thoughts from before the day 1 lynch:
Dramonic looks scummy for his active lurking.
Dramonic being scum suggests that Nikanor is town.
DDD is right to derail the Nik wagon, but why not lynch Dramonic?
Given Nikanor's flip, I'm feeling much less certain about my scumread on Dramonic. My read on him is confused, but he's more likely town than scum.


People seem really focused on L-1. The rules don't imply that being at L-1 is necessarily the trigger for the "one last shot" abilities, regardless of the one sample role PM. While it may be a good idea to pause a lynch wagon when it reaches L-1, I see no reason to wagon someone just because it could potentially give them an ability.


I don't think I've ever seen Porkens as scum before. His willingness to accept almost any day 1 lynch and his interest in 'handing out abilities' are not scumtells for him, as he has played that way as town. But I also have the feeling that he was playing to his meta and milking it on day one -- the only serious stance I can recall his making was on Dramonic. Also, his early posts directed at dramonic, then pomegranate, remind me of Rhinox (who was scum) throwing mud at Porkens and me during Mafia Reverberation.

Porkens 46 - votes Dramonic for saying Percy might not realize the game had begun
Porkens 51 - it's weird to ask why Dramonic didn't defend Tony in the same way as Percy when no one was attacking Tony. Dramonic was clearly responding to Seraphim's 'die lurker die' comment, so defending only Percy as opposed to both of them was clearly reasonable.
Pomegranate 53 - buys into Porkens's idea, and I don't understand why.
Jahudo 58 - is a good summary of the above.

Porkens 129 - a major shift from "give Tony a power by putting him at L-1" to "hang him so he gets ghost powers"

As d3x pointed out in post 135, Porkens was also dodging questions, which I don't recall ever seeing him do before.


Porkens, is Dramonic scum?


Jahudo said Porkens would be easier to read from day 2. Jahudo, what is your read on him?


Pom needs to post more.

But let's say that I don't like it when people think that I am scum.

I don't think you're going to like me in this game. You've been hiding in the background, and no one (other than SOG) has called you out for it. Your reactions to other peoples' discussions of SOG, Jahudo, VP, and Cobalt on day 2 looks like following the crowd.


I could see the VP/Jahudo argument D2 as possibly town-town due to the nature of their back and forth posts.
They each argue that the other gave some indications of not lynching Nik D1, and they're right in that regard. But they both argued for lynching him and voted him when they had other options.


DDD, you've managed to be off the scum-lynch and on the town-near-lynch without giving me scum vibes. You've been focused on Tony/SOG since about page 1. Now that the Tony/SOG playerslot is gone, who is scum?


I can't tell from here whether Percy's late D1 play makes him a Nikanor buddy, but Nikanor's D1 play makes Percy not look like a Nikanor buddy.


d3x looks town.

[Herodotus]

I forgot to

vote: Porkens

Sorry for triple posting.

[Herodotus]

DDD is excused from answering, despite the Hawt New Game Mechanic: Bell of Aviči ~ Infinite Nightmare.
I wrote that post during the night. Then after my first post, I wanted to make sure Vi didn't really start looking for a replacement, so I didn't spend the time to edit before posting the second post.

[Herodotus]

Porkens, that post wasn't a MEGACASE. Less than half of it was directed at you.
My vote on you has nothing to do with being on your scumlist -- you can see the specific reasons I'm voting you in the post you dismissed. If any of those reasons are wrong, let me know. Otherwise, just tell us who your other scumpartner is.

SOG using his power, per se, was a null tell. His choice of whom to give the vote to may have said something. The fact that he gave it to the player who had just said he was planning to hammer may have been a SOG-town tell, though I don't think that could have been a good argument considering it leads to WIFOM-like doubts (which played out in the fact that Percy became hesitant.) I also liked the fact that SOG waited for a while before using it, presumably to look for reactions. But this is all in hindsight.

While reading through the kingmaker events, I found Porkens post 410. If you wanted to lynch Cobalt, why didn't you move your vote to him? As of post 410, did you believe that SOG was scum? Did you believe that Cobalt was scum?
The only town-based motive I can imagine for that request was that you felt that SOG was scum, and you were lying to him about how you would use the lynch -- that you would use it to kill SOG. If you didn't think that SOG was scum, then wouldn't it be much better to push for a normal majority lynch on someone else? Even if you didn't think that was likely, why leave your vote on SOG, which made it useless in trying to lynch anyone else, and made it possible that he would be hammered before he could use his power?
The scum-based reasons for your request and maintaining your vote on him are easier to find. You wanted to burn the ability by making him use it (it seems safe to assume something like that would be 1-shot.) And you wanted the kingship so that D2 would end in a townlynch. And if some townie hammered him, that's even better for you.

[Herodotus]

If you're asking me that question in post 534 about my post 514, I wasn't defending him, I was just discussing my read on him. I asked you about him because of something you said on day 1, but I don't remember specifically what it was. Probably the vote you had on him, and your reasons.
Upon review in ISO, you talked repeatedly about how you were certain he was scum, then dropped the issue. I was wondering whether that certainty changed, and whether there was anything more to the change besides Nik's scumflip.

[Herodotus]

No I would have hammered cobolt. But I needed to keep the pressure on in order to motivate him.

Please explain. If SOG was town, how does it help the town to pressure him?

[Herodotus]

For me, he would show that he was town if he used his power.

As long as he withheld his power under the declaration that it wouldn't do any good to use it, he was scum in my mind.

Does that make sense?

No. It doesn't make any sense at all. If he didn't use his ability, he would almost certainly have been lynched. How does using an ability to prevent his lynch show that he's town? Would scum be less likely to self-preserve?

[Herodotus]

I don't think it's realistic that scum-SOG who did not have the power he described would claim that he did have that power.

d3x, what do you think of Porkens? Pom, have you reread him?

[Herodotus]

I don't think it's realistic that scum-SOG who did not have the power he described would claim that he did have that power.

d3x, what do you think of Porkens? Pom, have you reread him?

why arent you yelling at percy or juhado then?

huh?

[Herodotus]

People seem really focused on L-1. The rules don't imply that being at L-1 is necessarily the trigger for the "one last shot" abilities, regardless of the one sample role PM. While it may be a good idea to pause a lynch wagon when it reaches L-1, I see no reason to wagon someone just because it could potentially give them an ability.

Really? Why not? What are the downsides of this?

There are a lot of little ones.
1. It takes time to put several players at L-1. While it's possible to scumhunt at the same time, the votes aren't going to be very meaningful while this is going on, and the relevant content will suffer. (This is the only certain downside, the rest of my points are caveats about the expected benefits.)
2. As I said in the paragraph you quoted, L-1 isn't necessarily the trigger -- it's very possible that only one or two players would learn their last-shot abilities by being at L-1.
3. TonyMontana pointed out that a player might have to use their ability instantly. Some possible abilities could cause a premature end to the day; others might only have helpful effects during later days.
4. We don't know the net balance of all these abilities. In terms of numbers, the town has more abilities than the scum, but the game could be balanced with the scum having stronger abilities. So overall the hypothetical activation of every ability would not necessarily favor the town.

he has played that way as town. But I also have the feeling that he was playing to his meta and milking it on day one

Apart from similarities to Rhinox in Mafia Reverb, was there anything that gave you a vibe Porkens was "playing to his meta"?

Porkens's day 1 play looks soft. He was neutering his votes and not trying to build wagons or scumhunt. I expect him to join wagons liberally, but I also expect town-Porkens to comment on his lynch preferences much more than he did on day 1 in this game. Here, it feels like he substituted "I'd lynch anyone" for "I think these people are scum." As I said, the only serious stance I get from him is the scumread on Dramonic, which he dropped without explanation.

The similarity was a separate point, which is that Porkens was throwing mud in a way that reminded me of the tell by which I decided that Rhinox was scum.

[Herodotus]

Mod, could we have a d3x prod?

[Herodotus]

Porkens wrote:
I hate day 1.
I like to wagon-jump.
I hammered scum.
I didn't (ultimately) support lynch of town.
1. Null tell
2. Null tell
3. Could be bussing
4. You didn't explain why SOG's action was pro-town and I still don't agree it was pro-town. Because I think he would have eventually used his power to help save himself as scum. The idea that it wouldn't help him could've been a nice touch if he thought the power he had wouldn't save him.

3. Right, I could have been bussing, but is that really the strongest thing y'all have to go on? That I COULD HAVE been bussing?

This is a misrep. Jahudo was responding to the points you raised in defense of yourself. His response that these points aren't good town-tells is not the same as the cases against you.

1. It was not RVS, Serraphim was being scummy (this slots been replaced three times now?). At that moment, I certainly would have liked a Serra lynch.

Twice, fwiw. And being replaced is a scumtell? LOL.

Or Cobalt, whose replacement came in hyper-agressive. I see a strong connection between Percy and Cobolt.

I'm not "Cobalt's replacement" so much as Cobalt is "Herodotus's replacee". It feels odd that you keep on referring to me as Cobalt.

Who did Nikanor vote for? I forget. I like to wagon hop.

Lynch plz.

Wagon hopping really isn't a scumtell coming from Porkens. I'm not sure, but I don't really think the question there is, either, as long as he isn't just avoiding responding to your question. (And he did give a half-answer in 594.)

[Herodotus]

I went back and looked at his most recent post and realized that I had read it wrong. Originally, I thought he was saying these were his initial impressions coming off of a Nik Iso.

He's actually saying that these are hi sfull conclusions from reading the full thread.

I can now get behind a Pom/ToD Wagon.

@ToD: Is this correct?

For other scum, I'm currently thinking Jahudo.

I need to take a closer look at his play in general, and more specifically his behavior towards the Nik wagon.... there was something there that rubbed me the wrong way, and I can't remember exactly what.

VPB also had a solid case on him D2.

Please do so.

[Herodotus]

@Jahudo: A cursory look at your links says that your comments are correct.
Were you in any of those games? (I don't see you as a player.) If not, what prompted you to check so many of ToD's games? Have you looked into his playstyle during a previous game together? (Or are there any other ongoing games you're both in?)

@Porkens: it's fine if you don't have data to back that up, since it's false. But can you point to any place you've said that before? I have trouble believing you really think that.

[Herodotus]

@Porkens: I didn't have much time when I was writing that, and I misremembered this thread as talking about replacements rather than last-to-confirm. So I mistakenly believed that someone had taken a sample and proved the idea false.
I don't think anyone has ever researched the question before. IMO, lurking and then not being replaced is a scumtell, but flaking or requesting replacement is just an issue of being unable to continue due to real life.

but that list was supposed to represent the sum of the case against me. The fact that it wasn't added to is what prompted me to say "is that the best you have?"

Are you saying that your post 557 summarized the case against you? Because I don't think it did that.

@Jahudo: I can't recall seeing you discuss players' past games before, so I wondered if you had more experiences with ToD. It looked like there might be some OMGUS in your response to ToD's vote.

@Dramonic: good luck for your exams!

[Herodotus]

--You are in MyLo!

We should probably no lynch, but I'd like everyone to check in first just in case someone has a good reason why lynching would be better (eg. investigation results or an ability that could give us two lynches in one day.)

[Herodotus]

Considering that Porkens voted No Lynch, I could believe it might not be Porkens who did this.

Judging by the link-text in both of the votecounts, a no lynch might be impossible. I'll test a second vote.

vote: No Lynch

[Herodotus]

That seems likely.
I'm pretty sure that if the extra vote is from a dead player, it must be a townie, because if scum controlled three votes right now it would be LyLo instead of MyLo.

The confusing things are:
After Porkens's vote, ToD, and after my vote, Porkens, showed up in the votecounts; and
It seems to take 5 votes to lynch, which normally means there are 9 or 10 votes in play.

New theory: every dead player (or if the lynch threshold is in fact six, every dead player except for one) is able to vote. And there are 2 dead players voting Percy, 1 voting ToD, 1 voting Porkens, and some uncertain number voting No Lynch. That's awesome. If this theory is correct, this may be the best new mechanic ever.

It still seems like we might want to No Lynch, but I'm less certain.

[Herodotus]

I wouldn't encourage too much speculation unless you can prove that they change based on the living conversations.

I don't think this would be too difficult to test. Simply ask the Ghost Voters to place a single Vote on each of us for a single VoteCount and then go back to their original Votes after it's been posted, or some such plan.

I doubt that they can communicate with each other. They've all flipped, so barring something like death miller/death anti-miller, they're confirmed to each other. If they could talk, they would probably choose a single person by consensus and all vote for that person.

I think we should resolve these two questions before we consider lynching:
1. Are these extra votes coming from dead players (and if so, why is the lynch threshold 6 instead of 7?)
- I think the answer is yes, and maybe only townies are able to ghost-vote, so that would make 11 total votes not including Nikanor.
2. Is it better to lynch or not to lynch?
- The ghosts seem to be saying we should lynch, but it's possible that they're just unable to vote No Lynch.

[Herodotus]

There's the risk that scum are behind the ghost votes and setting us up to follow "confirmed" town ghost votes. My tinfoil hat is tingling at Herod's posts. I prefer a NL.

If it really becomes necessary, we can test the theory by placing X living players' votes on, say, No Lynch, or having Y dead players' votes involved in hammering.
But fictitious votecounts would be serious mindscrew, and the involvement of dead players fits the theme.

I'm not sure what the best way to take advantage of this ability is. It seems possible that through their QT discussion they've been more effective than the living in finding scum. But, their response also indicated that they don't have any inside information, so right now I don't see any advantage to making a lynch today using their votes, or even automatically lynching tomorrow the person they suggest today.

I'd like to ask the ghosts if there is some reason that we don't know about or understand why a No Lynch today would be bad, but I'll wait on that to avoid overloading the communication channel. It looks like only a couple of the ghosts are active this weekend.

[Herodotus]

@Percy 679:
It's not clear that dead people are valid lynch targets. My interpretation of Vi's explanation of the blue means that the name in blue would be the closest to lynch if they were a valid lynch target, but they aren't necessarily a valid lynch target.
@Everyone: If you're town, you shouldn't be stating your opinions or asking for other living players' opinons unless/until we decide that we will lynch today. Normal procedure during a normal MyLo is to No Lynch with zero discussion.

Hello, ghost people. Another ouija for you (before you start making your suspicions clear - at least one of you thinks I'm scum it seems...):
Regarding your lynching, let us know if:
-A lynch of you is a good thing (Vote Jahudo)
-A lynch of you is a bad thing (Vote Gammagooey)
-You don't know what a lynch of you would do (Vote d3x)
It seems that being able to lynch them must do something, and I'd like to know if the ghosts know what's going on.

While this is a good question, we were in the middle of asking them a different question: whether they were in agreement on someone being scum. See my comment on overloading the communication channel.

[Herodotus]

I've only been alive in MyLo in one game before, and I was mafia in that game, so I was content with the fact that the townies never considered a no lynch. But I'm sure I could find dozens of games I've read where the players No Lynched when they knew they were in MyLo. I'm certain that you've seen at least one such game, as well.
When you refer to wasting a day, do you mean all of day 4? I don't see how you're getting that. I want to hear what the ghosts have to say, but it looks like only a single vote changed since d3x and VP asked their question. That wasn't a very definite answer, so I'd like to wait and see if there's more evidence of a consensus among them in the next vote count. If only one or two of them are active, they can't give clear answers to multiple questions simultaneously.
If you have lines of inquiry to pursue among the living, why not pursue them tomorrow, after the scum have already made their night 4 kill choice, rather than before?

As far as the blue is concerned, I hope that Vi will clear the question up in the next vote count.

[Herodotus]

@ghosts:
If you think we should no lynch, but you want to say more first, please put some votes on Gammagooey.
If you think we should try lynching someone who is already dead, please put some votes on Nikanor.
If you think we should lynch a living player today, please put some votes on Jahudo (or you could just run that player up if you are certain about them, but if that was the case then I assume you would already have done it.)
If there is some other reason why a no lynch would not be the right play today, please put some votes on me.
If you think we should no lynch immediately, you can just hammer it.

[Herodotus]

Well, I was just about to ask for a votecount. Thank you.

I'm not sure what no change in the votes means.

[Herodotus]

Hero - had the ghosts come to some kind of concensus yesterday, would you have lynched that person? How much stock do you put in their opinions from yesterday?

I didn't notice the vote on Jahudo in vote count 56 until just now. Yes, I probably would have given serious thought to lynching yesterday despite it being MyLo once I saw the Jahudo vote. The ghosts may have known something the rest of us didn't, such as some role information that meant we had a chance to make an extra lynch. (But a single vote on Jahudo might have only meant that one of the players didn't understand why it's typically good to not lynch during MyLo, so I'd have wanted a bit more dialogue to understand what they were thinking.)
Why did you hammer the No Lynch after the Jahudo vote?

[Herodotus]

Last edited by Vi on Mon 07 Jun, 2010 9:56 pm; edited 1 time in total

Ah, mystery solved...

[Herodotus]

I hate that Jahudo wagon. ToD 606 and 614 were full of holes. Did those posts convince anyone? Porkens deserves credit for not being on the wagon.

it would have been super easy to just jump on my wagon (see Herod).

Can you explain the reference to me here?

He [ToD] did replace in, so that's probably a mark against him (if I'm trying to be consistant) BUT it's not like Sera who promised a reread and then quit.

Will reread Porkens.

And then she quit.
Now I don't agree that it's a scumtell, but you're obviously not getting your facts right.

BUUUUUUUUUUUT probably since he's one of the few people not on my ass out of sheer laziness, I have some fuzzy feelings for him today.

Who do you think was voting for you out of laziness?

[Herodotus]

It's Herod and Percy, just like it's always been Herod and Percy.

Herod I don't have time to look at the posts you quoted, but I think your splitting hairs or overgeneralizing or something.

1. No.
2.
In the first quote, it looks like you're accusing me of jumping on your wagon. Is that right?
In the second, I'm nitpicking; but it's relevant because you made a distinction between me and ToD based on something false.
Seriously, who was voting for you out of laziness?

Brazil was sooooo good

That's good.

[Herodotus]

it would have been super easy to just jump on my wagon (see Herod).

Can you explain the reference to me here?

You jumped on my <easy/popular> wagon when you replaced in.

The wagon that I started. Right.

He [ToD] did replace in, so that's probably a mark against him (if I'm trying to be consistant) BUT it's not like Sera who promised a reread and then quit.

Will reread Porkens.

And then she quit.
Now I don't agree that it's a scumtell, but you're obviously not getting your facts right.

You are obviously stretching for minutia to hold against me. I never even saw that bit about rereading me.

What I'm holding against you is that at least some of your opinions are not based on reality. It's frustrating.

BUUUUUUUUUUUT probably since he's one of the few people not on my ass out of sheer laziness, I have some fuzzy feelings for him today.

Who do you think was voting for you out of laziness?

No one had a decent case against me; the votes were piling on due to a lack of anything better to go off of. Juhado and Dramonic were lazy (herod and percy were scum)

I'll agree about Dramonic being lazy, but other than him, each person on your day 3 wagon made separate, solid points about how scummy you were.

[Herodotus]

There was an implied, or in-spirit, wagon on me. Yours was the first vote of the day, but it was clear that I would have votes that day.

I think this is another thing that you're pulling out of thin air. Looking back toward the end of day 2, Percy is the only one who looks likely to vote you. Jahudo was defending you, VP was asking why you weren't more active, and no one else even mentioned you.

What really bothers me about the Porkens (hypo)wagon is that EVERYONE seems to agree with it....how often does this happen in a lylo situation? I mean, if Porkens were scum, his buddy certainly came into today ready to bus. I would almost certainly eliminate Percy from the possibility of a Porkens buddy. Hero and d3x are possible, but even that seems less than likely.

d3x, what do you think of this and how serious are you about lynching Porkens today?

Everyone's been discussing it. On day 3, both you and d3x discussed voting Porkens. Then you each joined the Jahudo wagon.
I agree that Percy is an unlikely buddy for Porkens, but I could see either of d3x or VP as distancing buddies. If one of you is scum with Porkens, then failing to bus him today if we do in fact lynch him would put the spotlight on you tomorrow, so the consensus isn't really a tell.

[Herodotus]

The Nikanor push against [Hero slot] is hard to reconcile as a bussing or distancing move.

You still stick by this? Is this your main reason for finding Herodotus to be town?

Also, I can't remember if anyone had asked you if you'd been in a game with Mylo before...have you? If so, could you link it for me please. Thanks.

That wasn't quite how it went:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 09#2295109
The question here is still valid, but what I said was that I know he has

seen

at least one game that went to LyLo. I was specifically referring to Amish Village (where you and Percy were cult together.)

[Herodotus]

I agree that Percy is an unlikely buddy for Porkens, but I could see either of d3x or VP as distancing buddies. If one of you is scum with Porkens, then failing to bus him today if we do in fact lynch him would put the spotlight on you tomorrow, so the consensus isn't really a tell.

eh, I hear you, but would that be the first place scum go in lylo? I'd think they'd actually try to just lynch town first and win.

<shrug>
So Porkens voted Percy, hoping a townie would join him. But there was enough monentum against Porkens that if his partner tried to help lynch someone else immediately, the attempt would fail and look scummy.
I'm still undecided, just saying that it's plausible.

Huh? That was the REASON I asked that question, yes, but I'd like Percy to answer for himself.

I have a habit of answering questions about history. See username.

[Herodotus]

I'll be flabberghasted if Herod doesn't hammer and end this now.

Be flabberghasted.

That said, I'm going to be V/LA over the weekend, so I'll either decide soon, or not until Monday.

[Herodotus]

VP didn't hammer. So if Porkens is town, that should mean the scumteam is Percy/d3x. I'll reread them; if that looks impossible, then Porkens must logically be scum.

@d3x: I would be surprised if Porkens flipping scum didn't make things relatively easy tomorrow, but I'm okay with not discussing scum #3 until then.

[Herodotus]

I've read Percy and d3x in isolation, but I'll keep my notes to myself for now. They don't have a lot of interaction. Percy has stated a townread on d3x a few times. d3x has defended Percy occasionally. There is no proof they aren't scum together.
But I don't particularly think that they are.

[Herodotus]

My read on Porkens isn't going to change, and if Porkens will necessarily be lynched, I don't think that it's important that Percy answer VP's questions before it happens, regardless of Porkens's alignment.

vote: Porkens

[Herodotus]

wtf?

qft

[Herodotus]

I'm not scum either.

Maybe Porkens was the last scum? DTMaster could be some kind of death-godfather type role, and therefore knows the game is over? But that would make his being NK'ed weird.

I'm hoping Vi shows up soon.

[Herodotus]

Also, I have to say it was a very weird experience NOT powerhammering in lylo. Yesterday it was hilarioius when Herodotus and I were both posting in thread because I knew we were both thinking 'should we hammer now or wait?' Even though Porkens had used his 11th hour ability, I was really worried that endgame would trigger some kind of last shot from Percy or something and then the next day it'd be really easy for the town to bag and tag.

At the time, all I wanted was to make it appear obvious that you and I couldn't possibly be scum together. The threat of an unknown 11th hour ability from a townie meant I was hoping you didn't vote. The same reason also explains why I took four posts to hammer when I did. In case Porkens's ability wasn't 1-shot, or someone had a power to change the lynch, I didn't want to be obvscum.

From when I replaced in until the game ended, I felt like the setup looked biased in our favor, and I was waiting for some balancing factor to destroy us.

Vi, I strongly approve of the Tarhalindur ability, although having the 'ghosts' activate during MyLo, when towns usually No Lynch, seems to have cut into its effect on the game.