Mini 990: YuGiOh! The Abridged Mafia - (OVER)

[Fishythefish]

Hello all.

I'll be catching up this evening. I should finish within 24-48 hours, unless this thread is unusually difficult for it's length.

[Fishythefish]

Finished a first pass at reading the game. I'll have some reads by this time tomorrow.

Chrono's breadcrumb:

Unless He's a 'Steve,' I doubt that Fg is scum.

FG claims the character name of Chrono's brother, with a masons-who-don't-talk-or-flip role. Now, this breadcrumb basically confirms that. However, it still makes total sense - in fact even more sense - if they are unconfirmed neighbour-type roles (or any paired unconfirmed role). Chrono is saying that he doubts FG is scum, if he is truly Joey - if he has changed into "Steve" (as he does at some point in the subject matter, becoming evil [is this right?]), then he probably is scum. If FG was confirmed to Chrono, the "Unless he's a 'Steve'" is serving no purpose here.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and hi to all the people I've played with before (AGM, Brandi, Pom, charter). I was glad to see all of you in the playerlist.

[Fishythefish]

@FG: I’m saying that your claim makes sense with chrono’s breadcrumb; but an unconfirmed pair of roles for you and chrono makes even more sense. Which, of course, would make you scum. I don’t think this is conclusive, but I certainly don’t think chrono’s crumb is a point in your favour; I count it as a point against you.

FakeGod’s “3 claims” post got him lots of votes. Clearly it’s a terrible idea, but tbh I can’t see scum thinking “how shall I get role information? I know! I’ll ask them for it! AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!”.

His claim is… weird. If they were mason-like roles, they were nerfed by no night talking, not flipping masons and having a role name that means something else. Chrono’s breadcrumb, plus the early and bizarre claim from FG, convince me that there is

some

sort of Chrono-FG link going on here. Flipping VT makes it more likely to be a none standard role, and overall FG’s claim isn’t that unbelievable. I have no particular read on him.

MM

For most of day 1, right up until the dram wagon, MM’s play was active lurking; he gave practically no reads on anyone, and did nothing that was likely to lead to a scum lynch (or indeed anything). Even when giving a scumread on Chrono, I didn’t feel he was trying to get Chrono lynched, or even convince people of his point of view. This stopped in style, when he went strongly after Dram. Today, he has returned to not doing much; I have no idea who he wants dead or why.

I don’t think that MM’s play is a particularly unlikely bus. He made two posts:
1. When dram had 3 votes, he made noises about joining dram’s wagon, if dram didn’t respond satisfactorily.
2. When dram had 4 votes, he voted him, and committed himself to the wagon.
There’s nothing particularly wrong with this, but the timing is certainly totally plausible for a scumbuddy – when his buddy started to get into trouble, he gave himself the option of bussing if necessary; when things looked a little worse, he voted for him.

I think this guy is likely scum. He's been trying to keep a low profile, except when his partner needed bussing. His posts pretty consistently give me a strong vibe of "why would you bother posting that as town?".

vote: MM

I've got a few more people to look over in detail before I'm caught up.

[Fishythefish]

@Brandi: I remember playing with you, but can't put my finger on the game. Can you remember? There's some stuff I'd like to take a look at.

[Fishythefish]

@MM: could you please link me all of your completed games (if you have any)?

I'll be expanding on my MM case soon, and probably giving another scumread or two. I've got a few pretty strong townreads, which I don't intend to reveal.

[Fishythefish]

IPie

I think IPie might well be scum who is having trouble letting go of an easy mislynch. It would be reasonable for IPie to find FG scummy, but since Jarti’s finding Chrono’s breadcrumb, I feel he’s been rather desperate:
1. Discrediting what I think is fairly clearly a breadcrumb of some sort (“Unless he’s a Steve” is an unnatural phrase to put in a post otherwise). He says a nameclaim shouldn’t save FG; but he doesn’t really explain that point of view. Sounds like a line he thought sounded good, rather than a considered opinion on the evidence.
2. Linking Jarti with FG.
3. The argument that Jarti is attacking IPie for making connections, while he himself is doing so. The two situations are totally incomparable for obvious reasons, and linking them like this is empty rhetoric.

On MM: I dislike his fencesitting, and calling everything a nulltell. Also, I feel that this is rather odd:

MaxMouse, there's plenty of stuff you can talk about without having a replacement here, there's still like ten other players. Do you think FakeGod is scum? What about Pom? You still going on about Chronopie or what?

FakeGod is null to me, talks a lot but hasn't really led me anywhere which may or may not be a nulltell. Pom has played this way before IIRC , and I'm not that surprised so I'm not going to flip the "scum" switch on her anytime soon.

I still think Chronopie tried to very terribly cover up an OMGUS with some really thin reasoning. Its a vote based on the only thing I see that's not a complete nulltell.

@MM: You may have difficulty getting reads on day 1, but here you seemed to have a scumread on Chrono. You thought everyone else was voting on nulltells, more or less, and you had a real tell - Chrono was doing something "very terrible" with "really thin reasoning". It seems strange that you would really just sit back and not do anything about it.

I also feel your part in the dramonic lynch doesn't fit well in your play (or indeed your early game play generally, from what you say). Which makes me think you were bussing dram.

Having said that, I rather like MM's response.

[Fishythefish]

Read on Brandi:

Brandi has done next to nothing in this game - I wouldn't describe her play as fencesitting, just not sitting at all. Aside from that, I don't find much to dislike in her posts. Asking for a votecount when dram was being wagonned could be scum wondering whether to bus, but I don't see why to prefer that explanation to town wanting to know how close a lynch was. Definitely on the scummy side of neutral for active lurking, but I'd prefer an IPie or MM lynch right now.

[Fishythefish]

I disagree that active lurking isn't a scumtell. Specifically, if a player is trying to look like they are posting content, while not really adding anything to the game or pushing for lynches, they are more likely scum than town.

[Fishythefish]

I'm afraid I haven't had much time for this game today; tomorrow should be better.

V/LA:

this weekend, from Friday evening to Monday morning.

[Fishythefish]

I'd like to know what the Brandi votes from AGM and Pom were based on.

[Fishythefish]

And you, MM.

@Brandi: AGM's second vote never showed up on counts.

[Fishythefish]

Wait, why am I scum again?

Wait, why were you voting Brandi again?

Also, I read you in ISO and one thing that stands out to me is your reluctance to lynch dram until quite far into the wagon - vote 4, in fact. Seems a bit odd, don't you think?

vote: InflatablePie

[Fishythefish]

You made two points in that post I quoted. One amounts to saying that an unexplained vote is scummy, the other amounts to saying that voting fourth on a scum wagon is scummy. I don't find it credible that you really believe either of these to be a scumtell.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

Thinking.

ATTENTION DUELISTS

MY HAIR WOULD LIKE TO ANNOUNCE THE VOTECOUNT!

AlmasterGM (0) -
Brandi (0) -
bv310 (0) -
charter (0) -
FakeGod (1) - bv310
Fishythefish (0) -
InflatablePie (3) - Jarti Brandi Charter
Jarti (0) -
MaxMouse (1) - AlmasterGM
Pomegranate (2) - InflatablePie FakeGod

10 alive, 6 to lynch

[Fishythefish]

I don't think that claim is by any means obviously fake. Funnily enough, I recently received a role where I was a sister, looking for a brother for an unspecified outcome (in that case, we became masons when I found him), so I find it perfectly plausible. I'd be inclined to say Seto should claim at this point. If IPie is a lying scum name cop, he must know who Seto is anyway, and it would be good to know if Seto's role PM has any reference to IPie's character in it.

[Fishythefish]

But if Pie is lying scum, what is his role here? The only sensible one that I can think of is name cop; in which case he knows who Seto is anyway. I suppose he could have a parallel role to the one he's claiming, in which something good happens for the scum if he finds Seto.

So, the likely cases AFAIC:
1. Pie is what he claims.
2. Pie is a similar role to what he claims, but scum.
3. Pie is a namecop.
In cases 1 and 3, Seto claiming is good. In case 2, Seto claiming is bad.

My suggestion would be this: Seto claims, and we leave Pie alive for today. He targets Seto tonight. In the morning, he claims what happened. Depending on what this is, it may well be confirmable by Seto, and should tell us more about their alignments.

Seto shouldn't claim until we've thought about the pros and cons.

[Fishythefish]

So, I pretty much agree with AGM. I think that if Seto wouldn't particularly mind getting nightkilled, he should claim his name but NOT his role unless it's relevant. If he is more valuable than that, he shouldn't claim at all.

That aside, tbh I'm inclined to believe Pie, at least as far as his nameclaim, and that he's looking for Seto. It just doesn't feel like a saving-your-ass scum fakeclaim, and it's semi confirmable if he ever finds Seto. I think that role interaction is worth keeping him alive for.

vote: MM

[Fishythefish]

Unless I missed something, we only have one person who claimed to have a first and last name, and that person is likely scum.

Claiming is one of the best places to catch scum because they HAVE to lie. It isn't difficult to scumhunt as scum - you just apply the same principles and look for the same tells you would as town. You can even bus. Claiming is a whole different realm of truth and falsity - you have to fabricate something that doesn't exist and have it cross-check against something you can't see (the town role PMs). And empirically, I have past games where scum have been caught because of messing up name claims. So I have a strong reason to pursue this issue.

I want anyone who has a first AND last name in their role PM to claim. Now.

bv claims to have both names in his pm.

[Fishythefish]

Easy decision then.

unvote, vote: Pie

[Fishythefish]

@Jarti: am I right in thinking you have no indication as to whether Seto is in the game? (You don't have to answer that if it's not wise to).

[Fishythefish]

Brandi is scum.

FakeGod: are you able to shoot yourself?

Going on a breadcrumb hunt...

[Fishythefish]

I believe FG - claiming vig as SK is a sure road to a loss. FG wasn't under any particular pressure late yesterday, and I just can't see that claim coming from scum.

Brandi is lying scum. Because:
1. She's alive.
2. doc/cop/mason-turned-vig is a very overpowered town.
3. She failed to protect the obvtown last night.

vote, Brandi

[Fishythefish]

Or rather

vote: Brandi

ATTENTION DUELISTS

MY HAIR WOULD LIKE TO ANNOUNCE THE VOTECOUNT!

Brandi (2) - Charter, Fishythefish
bv310 (0) -
charter (0) -
FakeGod (2) - bv310, Brandi
Fishythefish (0) -
MaxMouse (0) -

6 alive, 4 to lynch

[Fishythefish]

1) Leaving a doctor alive out of WIFOM and going for the most protown player runs a

massive

risk that your kill is stopped, the doctor is semi-confirmed and the town get an extra lynch. I'm really not seeing that as a likely scum strategy.
2) Who is the "we" in "we seem to have a good amount of power roles this game ourselves"? This seems like a scumslip, because "we" being the town makes no sense in response to my point.
3) You're being rather inconsistent on why you protected charter. Either you had a reason (that you thought scum would target charter to frame you), or it was because you thought you'd be dead and it didn't matter.

AFAIC, we have no idea what bv's role does. I think basing decisions on it seems unwise.

[Fishythefish]

FG: if Brandi should flip doc, I don't think you should be shooting bv. MaxMouse and charter are better candidates for scum. bv hasn't claimed rolecop, he's claimed an unknown role or set of roles.

[Fishythefish]

1) Well I'm sorry, but this is what scum did.
2) We as in we townies? I'm saying that the TOWN has a lot of power as well, so your point that the scum are overpowered doesn't count for much. Yes it does make sense.
3) It was both, how is that inconsistency. I thought I'd most likely be dead, but if scum WERE going to keep me alive, they'd kill Charter. That's what I'd do if I were scum wanting to frame a doctor.

1) Fair enough. No more you can say about that; I continue to find it unlikely.
2) would work if I'd been saying the scum are overpowered. However, what I said was:
"2. doc/cop/mason-turned-vig is a very overpowered town."
that's pretty clear. How did you think I was saying the scum are overpowered?
3) OK. I think your decision is unlikely for a doc, but I see what you are saying.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

Thinking about some stuff.

[Fishythefish]

So. I think Brandi is most likely scum, and I won't countenance any strategy that involves her winning the game if that's the case.

That being said, she's the wrong lynch today. It is much better to leave her alive, insisting that she protect FG, who is clearly a vig - he simply wouldn't claim vig as SK there. That way FG stays alive, whatever Brandi's alignment, to keep on killing people.

FG should be shooting every night. There's no reason not to.

[Fishythefish]

I don't know why there is this assumption that the dice are alignment correlated.

Unless anyone objects, I'll claim when MM has claimed (largely because that's what charter wants, and he hints at info relevant to the process).

[Fishythefish]

@charter: my argument boils down to:
- If Brandi is scum, we can afford to let her live.
- If Brandi is town, we can't afford to lynch her.
So as long as there is some chance of townBrandi, she's a poor lynch today.

[Fishythefish]

I'm Mako, VT. There's a bit of flavour about my slightly odd infatuation with the sea.

Right now, I'm up for lynching charter or MM, and I don't much mind which. I believe FG, and I tend to think bv is telling the truth about his role. Brandi is still the most likely scum, but is a poor lynch because of the importance of FG's continued survival.

[Fishythefish]

Indeed, charter should claim.

I'd prefer not to have FG shoot Brandi tonight. Because if that happens and scum don't shoot, or crosskill Brandi, things get rather complicated, and not in a good way. Anyhow, I don't see any need to know FG's target for tonight.

[Fishythefish]

@charter: I'm confused. Are you saying that you can attempt to commute sometimes (every other night is standard I think?) but that even when you choose to do so, you might not, depending on something that you don't know about?

The only plausible thing that anyone has claimed that could affect you is the dice rolling. Otherwise it's scum.

Does you commuting stop people killing you, or does it stop them targetting you in any way?

[Fishythefish]

Ah, ok. Well, that makes charter a poor nightkill. Still, I think I'm going back to my very first read in the whole game. MM did nothing on day 1 - and when he did have a significant scumread, he didn't do much about it. His part in the dramonic wagon fits extremely badly in that picture, and I think that points to a bus.

Reading MM's iso, I notice a couple of fairly good points on charter - namely the reversal of his reads on MM's part in dram's wagon and on FG, just after my entry to the game. He had thought MM looked town for attacking charter; he then agreed with my bussing theory. He had thought FG was making it "extremely difficult to believe he's town with the way he's acting"; this changes to charter thinking he's town. I don't have time to look right now, but I don't recall where these changes came from; I'll look later today to see if there are explanations in charter's posts.

That post (his iso 33) is a reasonably good analysis of FG and charter. The former seems a little forced at times, like perhaps he is trying to get a scumread on FG; but it could be forced just because he's trying to get

any

read on FG.

So. I was kind of hoping to find lots of scumminess in MM's day 2 play to add to my case, but there isn't much there. I still think he looks pretty bad for D1 things, but I need to check out bv and charter in more depth before laying down a vote.

[Fishythefish]

I can't remember reading that post at the time; if I did it didn't stick.

That was mostly intended as a note to myself to check up on how the discussion went after that.

I didn't find that post scummy. I imagine you said why you found it so at the time; again I'll reread that later.

[Fishythefish]

My major reason for thinking bv is town is his claim; I just don't see why you'd make that up as scum (or claim it if it were half true).

I don't have time to read and think about your post right now; I'll do so within 24 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Alright, here's my take on Bv. The epitome of lurker/active lurker. He RVS votes Princess, then changes it to Kitoari once the wagon on BelovedPrincess falls apart and one springs up on Kitoari. He's said virtually nothing in between. Then, another seven posts of nothing, until he unvotes Kitoari to revote Kitoari, WHILE SAYING "I have to admit that, while the Dramonic wagon has some really good points, none of it is particularly scummy. I've played with Dram before, and this is the same way he usually plays." He defends dramonic. That's Exhibit A.

Then he proclaims with certainty that we only have one scum left (after dramonic is lynched) and he proceeds to vote Alamaster saying that Dramonic was distancing from Alamaster. He provides no evidence of this nor provides any reasons to suspect that Alamaster was doing anything other than scumhunting. However, he's gone straight to 'bussing' which is a crap reason to vote someone over right out of the gate day two. He says absolutely nothing more about Alamaster after this vote. That's Exhibit B.

About another 7 posts of useless dice rolling, then he says "Alrighty then. I'll reread the thread tomorrow and get my thoughts up, hopefully. Gut is telling me that Kit is still the right play, but I'd like to back that up with a real case." of which it looks like he's totally dropped Alamaster from his suspicions (this post occurs shortly after Alamaster claims double voter) but there's no unvote or anything.

Then we get to the debate about FakeGod's claim of which I suspected that scum were busy posting about this since it's something they can easily post about, they can easily make doubtful posts like 'that role is made up', and generally other fake scumhunting (though at the time I internally suspected Pom). He starts going on about how confirmed townies (masons) are unlikely to exist, which is total crap, since masons are in lots of games. Exhibit C.

MASSIVE RED FLAG ALERT

In response to Pie's claim, "My PM calls me Duke Devlin, not just Duke.

Also, seeing as we've already had one set of siblings in this game, I don't think a second one all that unlikely."

Looking back on this, this is the atom bomb of scumminess for this game. He has now FLIP FLOPPED ON ONE HIS MAJOR REASONS FOR SUSPECTING FAKEGOD'S CLAIM ONCE PIE'S CLAIM HAS COME IN TO QUESTION. He is supporting Pie's claim since it's likely that there are multiple sibling type roles in the game, but he CONTINUES to go after FakeGod. This hypocrisy is scummy, but when you take into account he did it specifically to defend Pie (of whom he had never mentioned in the entire game) who was scum who had just introduced a dubious claim, I can't see any way to dismiss it. I personally couldn't dismiss how I can count the number of "content" posts he has on one hand (and I'm not sure how that fact has escaped me this long). I also think his claim falls into that category of "useless scum roles scum claim without accountability", but someone could argue it's not a scum claim. I say BV is active lurking up a storm because the bulk of his posts are in response to events happening with relatively little significance on the game, but he posts a bunch in response to them, and posts virtually no scumhunting initiated by him. However, there's no explaining away how he defended dramonic and Pie's claim, and how the ratio of his 'defending scum' to 'other posts containing content', the ratio is pretty much 1:1.

As far as my qualms with Brandi go, upon rereading Bv, she doesn't even compare.

unvote, vote BV

Now on to MaxMouse.

Well. This is a very good case. Defending both scum looks bad. Throwing doubt on the mason claim for a really bad reason looks bad. Disbelieving FG's claim, and then defending Pie

on the basis of that claim

looks really, really bad.

I've been ignoring bv because his claim doesn't feel like a scum claim. But this case is basically conclusive.

vote: bv

[Fishythefish]

I'll defend his case.

lulz. If that's how you play mafia, then I'd give up now.

Allow me to respond to this "conclusive" case.

Exhibit A: This point basically hinges on you saying that my using meta is a scumtell. I've played games with Dram where he was a pro-town PR and he played nearly identical to how he did in this game. The last time I played with him as scum, he was nearly opposite to this, so I hoped to avoid running up a pro-town PR (as I thought he was at the time) to a claim on D1.

Exhibit B: I only "proclaimed with certainty" based on a post by Dram when I reread him after he flipped scum. Also, it's a beginning of day vote, aka the time when you usually look at D1 plays and look for connections.

Exhibit C: This one is based on my believing AlmGM's claim of doublevoter after it was quite clear that we had a double voter. When there was no CC, it's rather clear that he's telling the truth. I've never seen a scum double-voter before, so his un-CC'd claim is pretty compelling evidence for his alignment.

As for your "massive red flag", I don't see why it's so inconceivable that I could, you know, actually

think about the game

and change my opinions on a claim. I read a few other games with siblings in them. The Joey claim makes a mild amount of sense, except for the "turned vig" part. I think he's either a sibling-turned-SK, like in Whedonesque, or is actually telling the truth about his role (CONSIDERABLY more unlikely, at least to me)

Seriously, if that's the best case you have, I'd really like to see your worst.


PREVIEW EDIT: So impatient, Charter.

No. Your defence of dramonic relies on your meta. The point for me is that you defended both scum, and have defended noone else in the game, and that your reasons for defending the scum are pretty weak.

For the AGM vote; that's not particularly conclusive for me. It's a bad vote - you don't give any reason at all why you have jumped to bussing as an explanation for AGM's play, and bussing is less common than not bussing.

Exhibit C you misunderstand; the point is that you tried to throw doubt on FG's claim using the terrible argument "you don't get mason groups in a 12 player game".

If you thought about the game and changed your opinions, you gave zero indication of that. Here is a synopsis of your arguments:
FG: claim to be Serenity's sibling
bv: That's never true! You aren't Serenity's sibling!
Pie: claim to be looking for Seto as Mokuba.
bv: That's probably true. We have one pair of siblings, we might well have another.
You jumped from strongly believing FG's claim was false to assuming it was true with no indication that your mind was changing - and indeed, being absent for post of the time between those posts. I simply don't buy that.

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: you jumped from strongly believing

the sibling aspect of

FG's claim was false to assuming....

[Fishythefish]

@MM: yes, bv's roleclaim still bothers me somewhat. But the case against him is really very damning, and that outweighs that claim for me.

@charter: how have I set myself up very nicely if bv is town? And how do I have a "fixation" with MM? I think his day 1 play was pretty scummy. What's wrong with that?

@bv: I think it's mad to say I'm "not actually committing myself". It's pretty clear that I think you are scum, based on charter's excellent case.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and Brandi: please confirm you will be protecting FG tonight.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry for triple post. One more thing. Today, I was very instrumental in making sure our claimed doc and claimed vig stayed alive (after an initial vote for Brandi). I think that is very much not the action of scum claiming VT.

[Fishythefish]

So FG and Chrono

weren't

confirmed to each other?

While it didn't actually help us, a cop/commuter + doctor seems a very strong combo, although I suppose it's offset a bit by a mafia godfather. How would the traitor and and psychopath have investigated?