Mini 1049 - Hide and Seek Mafia - FINAL Kablooie!
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Still catching up (into day 2) but good lord:
Camn is town.
Elli is town.
Far_Cry is town.
MPR is town.
Kat is probably scum.
Pom is probably scum.
I'd guarantee one of those two being scum (with, thus far, a fair to middlin chance of both).
The lurkers (SEE MOST EVERYONE ELSE) better pick it up because good lord-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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THERE, caught up.
Annnd....
I have to give one apology.
TBM, sorry I doubted you as a lurkerface. You're not a lurkerface. You are in fact a townface.
That said.
Follow me here.
Kat is scum. Not the ohh maybe ooohh nelly kind. But, the I'm certain of this kinda scum. Between lying for no town gain (hint: also for no scum gain but the default is in fact bad news bears), the teehee with the claiming AND the delay in giving the important part and this new "welp lynch me to help the game" business we done caught us a scums in the face.
FURTHER, and this is important enough I'm gonna lay it out now: When Kat flips scum, check her ISO. All those people she calls town without any qualifiers? Town. Every last damn one. (double hint: I'd bet hard on Pom being the last scum).
The ONLY reason I'm not throwing the vote/hammer is that I want to squeeze the Ice a bit just to make sure.
Amished is in this game?Spy, you know what Amished's tell thing is y/n?
Regardless (n)-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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They are the tiny, perfect strokes of scum against the broad brushes.
Kat hasn't done anything. There's a lot of words, but (and I swear PLEASE GOD dont make me go through and get the diagrams) they're designed specifically NOT to say anything. Everything is qualified and not in the "I'm not sure what I actually think" but in the "I have to leave these bridges open".
Of course, that aside, the combination of factors listed before would be an instant death warrant anywho so.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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High on goofballs.
Being scum and being scummy are different beasts entirely. I'm more than happy to qualify my predecessors AND, if they are actually using analysis, I will used the fact they are confirmed to adjust my reads.
In other cases such as this one? Absolutely disregarded.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Again, you'll get it when the OTHERS demand it which they wont because seriously.
However, lets just be clear:
I say you're doing nothing.
You say thats your meta.
Then you ask me for specifics.
I say I'll give them but its pretty self evident.
You then allude to that being your meta.
SO, if your argument is "Its my meta" why in the NAME OF ALL THAT IS HOLY DO YOU WANT ME TO WASTE MY TIME SHOWING SOMETHING YOU ALREADY AGREE WITH.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Katsuki(2): spyrex, Pomegranate
camn (2): TheButtonmen, mikeburnfire
mikeburnfire (1): Ellibereth
Ellibereth (1):Katsuki
mongoose(1): jenniwren
TheButtonmen (1): camn
jenniwren (1):mongoose
MehPlusRawr (1): MehPlusRawr
vezokpiraka(1): Budja
Katsuki(2): Pomegranate, camn
camn (2): TheButtonmen, mikeburnfire
vezokpiraka(2):Katsuki, Ellibereth
mikeburnfire (1): spyrex
mongoose(1): jenniwren
MehPlusRawr (1): MehPlusRawr
spyrex (1): Budja,
Katsuki(4): Pomegranate, camn,vezokpiraka,mongoose
mongoose(4): jenniwren, Budja, spyrex,Katsuki
MehPlusRawr (2): MehPlusRawr, TheButtonmen
camn (1): , mikeburnfire
vezokpiraka(1): Ellibereth
Katsuki(1): ,mongoose
mongoose(7): jenniwren, Budja, spyrex,Katsuki, camn, Ellibereth,vezokpiraka
MehPlusRawr (1): TheButtonmen
camn (1): mikeburnfire
vezokpiraka(1): MehPlusRawr,
vezokpiraka(4): camn, The Buttonmen, Pomegranate,Katsuki
Katsuki(1): spyrex
vezokpiraka(5): camn, The Buttonmen, Pomegranate,Katsuki, budja
Katsuki(1): spyrex
vezokpiraka(6): camn, The Buttonmen, Pomegranate,Katsuki, budja, MehPlusRawr
Katsuki(1): spyrex
Katsuki(4): spyrex, Pomegranate, camn, jenniwren
spyrex (1):Katsuki
budja (1): The Buttonmen
Katsuki(3): spyrex, Pomegranate, jenniwren
spyrex (2):Katsuki, mikeburnfire
budja (2): The Buttonmen, camn
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
Katsuki(5): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja, The Buttonmen, camn
spyrex (1):Katsuki
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
Katsuki(3): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja
budja (2): The Buttonmen, camn
spyrex (1):Katsuki
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
Katsuki(3): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja
budja (2): The Buttonmen, camn
spyrex (1):Katsuki
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
jenniwren (1): mikeburnfire
Katsuki(3): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja
budja (2): The Buttonmen, camn
jenniwren (2): mikeburnfire,Katsuki
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
Katsuki(6): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja, jenniwren, camn, The Buttonmen
jenniwren (2): mikeburnfire,
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
SpyreX (1):Katsuki
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There's not near enough from this that I like.
Unvote, Vote: Pom-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Holy hell in a handbasket girl.
Its not 'that sucks' its 'I'm not often wrong when I'm that sure and thus pissed'.
And that SURE isn't nothing. Its just not as much as I like come D4.
LOOK AT IT. If I have to spell out Pom I swear to god-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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GOD
Lets keep this in mind down the road.iso 1 wrote:I'm not willing to vote Vezo yet for following his (often mind-numbing but) regular playstyle.
Then the vote in iso 8 off camn's rationale.iso 7" wrote:Eh, I don't see the point in speculating about this, as it's basically WIFOM. I'd say that it's a nulltell as far as vezo is concerned.
Then we get to the next day.
This is based off of Tans's bit (whom Pom said she had 'bad feelings' about the day before).VOTE: Katsuki. What do you have to say about this?
Which leads to an explanation down the road of:
Which fits the pattern of IIoA based on things someone else has said. All nice and qualified.Okay, I'm still happy with my Kastuki vote; this is what I've got on him:
-He tunnels Tans, and in post 308, he twice lists the that a reason he finds Tans scummy is because Tans found him scummy. OMGUS much? How is that a reason?
-He WIFOMs everyone about his night action for no apparent or necessary reason, saying that it benefits town to confuse scum (302, 313, 316).
-He seems to get overly worried, and a bit defensive even about the first votes put on him at the very beginning of the day.
Additionally, after seeing Jenni catch this right on if Pom-scum then Jenni-town.
SO, to tie in with above:
Katsuki (1): , mongoose
mongoose (7): jenniwren, Budja, spyrex, Katsuki, camn, Ellibereth, vezokpiraka
MehPlusRawr (1): TheButtonmen
camn (1): mikeburnfire
vezokpiraka (1): MehPlusRawr,
*No vote anywhere.
vezokpiraka (6): camn, The Buttonmen, Pomegranate, Katsuki, budja, MehPlusRawr
Katsuki (1): spyrex
* smack dab in the middle of the deathwagon. Based of 'me too'
Katsuki (6): spyrex, Pomegranate, budja, jenniwren, camn, The Buttonmen
jenniwren (2): mikeburnfire,
MehPlusRawr (1): Ellibereth
SpyreX (1): Katsuki
* early on the wagon based off of 'you're scum, but me too' and then nothing.
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So, yea.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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It's there. Its not as much as I'd like but like two posts above you I went ahead and made some of it all nice and clear with the pretty words and all.@Spryrex: "Vote Count Analysis" are supposed to have "Analysis" in it?-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Ok, one more time.
Look at the difference in how jenni mk 2 came in versus:
THIS IS SCUM COME ON NOW wrote:Oh hai. I've got to catch up on the game before I can provide anything useful, but I'd find it helpful if people would ask questions to help me along the way.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Not least of which because as town what the hell is "I haven't caught up (and I'm obviously stalling for more time) please ask me questions to catch me up"
What the hell kind of reactive town play is that?
Its not. Its scum. (Hint: if jenni and pom had switched replacements I'd STILL be way more worried about Izzy)-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Or to shut him up.
Or because he was town town this game.
But the mechanics being what they are targeting his room to kill him AFTER already trying and failing? Woosh.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Coy?
You mean "not on site as per my V/LA"?
Well played.
And, no, I didn't realize it was the hammer.
However, even if I did I still would have done it.
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Now, maybe I'm missing something awesome BUT today is lylo.
So, I don't get camn's business some (saying for today) BUT I really don't get MBF willing to throw in the towel if by Sat a consensus isn't met.
I DOUBLY dont like this happening while I'm VLA.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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I dont think camn is scum at the moment.
HOWEVER, I'm rereading with my bit of freetime right now because as per the last two I've been wrong.
Its lylo, so if you thought camn was actually scum and you're actually town you're not giving the town authority. You're saying "all three of you HAVE to be right or we lose right now."
Which makes no sense.
You're talking waaayy too much like a politician right now and that is raising my eyes far more than camn.
BUT, I'm also absolutely not saying anything definitive EITHER WAY until I've reread AND I'm back home.
So, if you want to throw the game just go ahead now since this whole Saturday-gate is garbage from both of you.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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And, just so we're clear - this isn't even normal lylo.
This is we've gotta be right AND gotta be lucky tonight lylo.
So playing speedball in it isn't awesome either way.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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I'll be finishing this dealio up HOPEFULLY this weekend.
However, this reread is really making me think as of page 20 that we're missing the forest for the trees.
I'll give more detail when I can post again but there's SOMETHING very interesting that happened that no one has got back to and some of that is probably my fault.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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The more I read the more I'm becoming convinced this is going to be a wasted day.
However, like I said, forest and trees.
In the meantime I want to play a little game.
Look at MPR's quickhammer on Vezok. More importantly, and I missed this round 1, look at what was happeningaroundsaid hammer.
Then, fast forward a little bit. Look close, real close, at Ice's ISO. There's a few key pieces I want to see if the nuggets can be found (hint: one involves the reasons he has for voting me now).
Note: If Ice comes in here and tries to dismantle this before ALL of you comment just go ahead and lynch him for me.
Note 2: STOP CLIMBING ALL OVER YOURSELVES TO GET LYNCHED. JESUS. WE HAVE SOME DAY LETS USE IT.
Next week when I'm back I'm gonna do some more parsendance but maybe instead of camn /wrists we can look at some other stuff first.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Keep on keepin on.
Many things, but making something up and then holding it hoping someone else sees something that I can go OHH YES THATS IT.
Good to see it begin though.
I would like the rest of the planeteers to post and play lookseepeeksee-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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You know what the best part is?
When everyone comes back and I don't even have to do it. I mean, I still will and all but the simple fact this is the reaction should be plenty.
And, you'll note, I didn't say "don't object". I said if you do this, and exactly this, before they weigh in.
Which you've done with all sans camn who I'm more than a little ashamed of for missing these gems.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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I mean, if there WAS no case then no one would find it and then more the fool me right? Which would be double plus fun for you because I'm scum, right?
Huh its a mystery then isn't it.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Thats not what I even pretended to allude to.
If you were town and I was scum this would be like a kid in a candy store for YOU. I mean, scum-SpyreX saying he has a case but not giving it right away? Its just a matter of waiting for me to not deliver and BOOM.
But, no, that's not what you did.
I mean, saying I did this hoping someone ELSE would do it and I could go "Ohh yea, see, SEE"
Woooosh.
I'm waiting for a couple key reasons. It is important. I need to believe.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Back home so I guess we'll play what was I actually alluding to.
The first part that you guys didn't touch (the MPR part) is simple:
When the "hammer" was first alluded to in 244 AND right before it happened there was something being discussed: manipulation of the night mechanics for an edge (something I STILL think there can be work done).
It wasn't just a quickhammer, it was a shut-up hammer.
But, that's not important in comparison to what I really wanted you to look at:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2568527 <--- ISO 1
There's a lot of words there, I'll give you. However, up through page 14 is already a Vezok lynch. So, that is bell one.
Bell two is far more important. And continues. There's no bite. Everything is quantified and baby-steps.
BUT, that could be fine. If it stops:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2570594 <--- ISO 3
Of course it doesn't. There IS something to note here though that continues. Which we'll get to later because I LIKE ME SOME SUSPENSE.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2570604 <--- ISO 4
AHH, here we go. Kat is scum, NP is scum. Camn is 110% town.
BUT, what's missing?
OHhHHHhh thats right.
A vote.
There was NO vote ever that day. None. He cheerleaded the hell out of that bandwagon but never bit.
So, that's phase one. Phase two:I don't understand why you think Pom is scum. She seems town to me.
Why do you think she's scum?Apart from that, it was just that her comments sometimes mirrored my own impressions as I read through.
Also, part of the reason I asked is that Pom is such a lurker in general that I dunno how you find her scum except by PoE.Spell out Pom. I came to the conclusion that she was town during my readthrough. Why did you think otherwise?
Thats the reason for the jump. Which then sits there back and forth over business like:That leads to:
Pom, if you think NP is the scum, why didn't you vote for him?Vote: Pom
Answer my question.
So, you most want to lynch Jenni, or Pom? I wouldn't consider either Jenni or Pom to be particularly useful so...
Which turns into:Also Pom did not play the game and that is scummy but she is also Pom so I mean maybe it is just Pom.
NOTE WHERE THE VOTE IS.I am leaning toward supporting lynches on camn, MBF, or SX. I would prefer one of those first two.
NOTE WHO ISN'T THERE FROM THE FIRST ISOS.
But, lets continue. To the real nugget that made my eyes raise:
Camn went from 110% town to #1 scum based on "typical" play this game.I re-edited it with colors and edited it so one name goes with each player:
mongoose (7): saporovirus, nopointinactingup, SpyreX, Katsuki, camn, Ellibereth, vezokpiraka
vezokpiraka (6): camn, The Buttonmen, Pomegranate, Katsuki, nopointinactingup, Iecerint
Katsuki (6): SpyreX, Pomegranate, nopointinactingup, saporovirus, camn, The Buttonmen
Pomegranate (5): Iecerint, Ellibereth, camn, nopointinactingup, SpyreX
AN1: I personally apologize for being on the Pome/Dizzy lynch...I originally voted her to pressure her into answering, but then forgot about it. I certainly didn't think she would be hammered without claiming her hiding places, etc.
AN2: It's a little weird that MBF has never been on a lynch. MBF, is that par for the course for you?
One of [saporovirus, NP, SX, camn, Elli] is scum.
Exactly one of [camn, NP] is scum.
One of [SX, NP, saporovirus, camn] is scum.
One of [Elli, camn, NP, SX] is scum.
I am most inclined to lynch camn at this time, on the grounds that someone was likely bussing vezok (it's VEZOK), and I know it wasn't my slot; and that I am leaning town on NP at this time. Since yesterday, I have not gotten the sense that she is interested in finding scum, but rather in lynching players who are not her; her attitude toward MBF's vote for her today is typical.
Outside of that dichotomy, SX's slot looks the worst for being on town lynches and only on town lynches. He also vocally pushed to lynch the two most recent town lynches.
SX, were you aware that you were hammering Dizzy yesterday?
saporovirus needs to assist me with this immediately. Are there any dependencies you've worked out about who may be scum? Do you dispute anything I have asserted?
NP went from #2 scum to town based on...?
And then, of course, I'm the scum for being on town and only town lynches. Because, of course, he wasn't. EXCEPT FOR THE FACT HE CALLED KAT SCUM, NEVER VOTED AND WENT POM IS TOWN AND SAT ON THAT WAGON AND TO HAVE THE SHEER GUMPTION TO GO "WHOOPS MY BAD" IS NUTS.
And, if that's not enough:
Bold is amazing and I'm ashamed at all of you for not raising some eyes.I will not stop trying to lynch you given an arbitrary deadline, no.I could imagine being convinced to lynch NP or SX or whomever.These are the kind of situations under which I would be convinced not to lynch you. Not because it became Saturday. That is dumb.
The exchange between camn and MBF is extremelyinteresting.
The italics is one of those things that REALLY makes me go when he flips scum both you two are town.
And, lets not get started with my "still being coy" (i.e. not being online) about the hammer and get to the final part.
Look at the responses since I looked at his actual voting history versus what he's claimed and said I saw some nuggets.
Do those look like someone with nothing to worry about? Or, even better, someone watching "the scums" feed themselves into the maw?
Or, do those look like someone pre-defusing a situation? Because, in fact, there's something to hide.
Unvote, Vote: Ice
If I'm right Camn AND MBF are probably town. Sapo still reeks town from early but I would have to re-calibrate to make sure. Elli or NP make the most sense.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Of everything I brought up that is the least important. To such a degree I'm paranoid it wasn't an accident.
BUT, what happened to the about me having nothing? About me just wanting others to do my work for me? Where is it?
Instead I get "ohh yea I totally would have voted there" and "ohh it was a total accident and SpyreX is the bad dude for it" and even lol, meta meta meta.
You parked a vote on a town read versus anything else.
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@MBF:
I see a lot of what you're sayin about camn. However, on one side I could see Camn-Ice BUT the "ohh this is interesting" versus either power bussing OR super defense makes me think this is town-on-town love and he's just feedin the fires.
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On the flipside, I'm workin on a night hypothesis assuming a scum lynch today. I'm hoping to have it detailed out enough tonight for SRS discussion.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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It works like this:
On a scum lynch only one scum remains. Scum can NOT hide in a different room.
Before lynch run the top two scum dance from everyone.
Split the game into two rooms (this would require at minimum two light sleepers to come out).
The split would be scum 1, scum 3, scum 5 / scum 2, scum 4, scum 6.
Light sleepers say if the players were in their rooms last night. IF someone isn't in the room, they get lynched.
Otherwise, a kill means it is the light sleeper from the other room.
NK doesn't change the basic idea, just always make sure there's enough for not game over if explode happens.-
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I was just trying to win it outright. AND, especially if this was a scum light sleeper flip, I think it'd work.
Organization of the hiding at one left makes a lot of sense, one way or the other.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Thats my hesitation. IF, in a perfect world, there were two awesome light sleepers it wouldn't be an issue.I just fear that the scum would bomb a room, get 3 kills, then it would be 2-1 lylo withshenanigans.
Not even remotely addressed to you.What are you referring to? I responded to all of your comments.
The best part is this is far more rhetoric than what I was getting at but LETS DANCE:Pure rhetoric. This comment serves no function.
So, what happened to "SpyreX is just making things up. I mean, he just wants people to make a case. I mean, he's saying guess the case. I mean, even with all this you're not scum but you're scummy"OHH SNAP LOOK AT ALL THIS RHETORIC wrote:^ Sounds made-up to me.Hey guys I heard SX might be kinda scummy.
You will have to figure out what I am thinking for yourselves, though.
If you can figure it out, I will like you more.
Oh wait. I already let it slip earlier. Too bad."If I state a case on Iec and do not explain it but rather invite others to make it for me, and Iec objects to that, he is scum (or, at any rate, you should lynch him). OMG HE IS DOING IT. SCUMZ!"Um, no. If you do bullshit like "I have a case try to guess it" I am *already* in the candy store.
Anyway, I haven't prevented you from giving a case. And it's not as I have prevented anyone else from doing the same.
I have not entered said candy store because the prior probability of NP or camn being scum is higher, so you have wiggle room from me than you ordinarily would.Basically, you did something scummy, and now are arguing that you are not scum for having done something so ostentatious.
The fact you weren't called out on grandstanding the Kat wagon and sitting on Pom your "town" read under the well, gee shucks.This was not new information at all. There is no "ohh yea." And you are indeed a bad dude for hammering.
As for that hammer?
Every time.
I feel no remorse.
HOWEVER, I also don't go "Ohh look he's been lynching town (which I grandstanded the one I said was scum AND then voted the one I thought was town AND he's a filthy hammerer of that wagon he'd been trying to push all day."
The two bolded sentences are awesome and best friends.You know perfectly well that I invariably self-meta when appropriate as town. I have used this where relevant 100% of the time as town, and I've been town with you many times. You are only saying this for rhetorical effect.You know as well as I do that it has nothing to do with my alignment. It is in fact a statistical towntell due to that second sentence there.
Ready for some legit SpyreX meta?
Meta is retarded and way overused.
The only thing worse than the "LOOK SEE THIS IS MY TOWN GAME YO AND I KNOW IT AND THUS IN NO WAY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALTERING IT I PROMISE" is the "LOOK THEY ARE SCUMMY BUT THEY ARE ALWAYS SCUMMY SOOO"
You've done both this game. Good job.
You mean the "question" pom didn't answer? That after she did you left it there and gee-shucks it must be the rest of that wagon?This kind of sentence makes me more sure you're scum and not just mistaken. This is not how a town player frames this issue. It shows that you are more concerned with the context a player has constructed before placing a vote rather than external circumstances that led to a vote.
Get a danglin.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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Unless you are the physical embodiment of meta (making you, in fact, the metatron) I have no idea how in the name of everything holy you could even pretend to throw out that new buzzword into the fray.
If I really have to respond to this at the behest of others then I will.You have misread my comment on your behavior, though. I did not say that you are always scummy. You are not always scummy. You are not even usually scummy. You do, however, have a history of using irrational, bizarre reasoning to think I'm scum when I'm not.
I am aware that you do not like meta. Like much of the rest of that post: what does that have to do with anything?
Otherwise, I'm quoting it so that the masses can see how bendy-straw this is and vote accordingly.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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1.) The issue isn't just the not voting (which is bad). Its not even the cheerleading (which is super bad). Its the combination of the two with the cognitive dissonance of "Ohh yea SpyreX is pushin them thar town wagons".nop wrote:+ Your case about Iec's inconsistency bears some validity. However, I will have to disagree with you about Iec's motive for not voting. I've played with Iec-townmate + Iec-scummate before and his description of his meta fits my observation of his previous games. He is usually hesitant to vote as town and not so as scum.
+ I also like your plans for the following days. If a pair of Light Sleeper + Heavy Sleeper bears an inconsistency, there is bound to be scum among them so that could narrow down our options a lot.
+ Why do you believe Sapo is town?
2.) My worry, and maybe I'm missing something, is that my plan is a town win for sure IF the light sleepers are town. IF the light sleeper is scum then it becomes a lot more dicey.
3.) Just a gut read. Like I said, klaxons went off on commenting on the MPR hammer but not anything else I said.
Leaving aside the fact this is all meta junk again lets get to the crux:ice wrote: It is not "bendy-straw" -- it is a very meaningful distinction. You usually seem very town to me in general. That is literally the opposite of you always seeming scum, so it is meaningfully not the same thing.
Did MY behavior change? Have I been this scum-notscum whatever you call it all along?
Because, you better damn well be able to say what changed.-
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SpyreX POWERFUL WIZARD
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