Mini 1049 - Hide and Seek Mafia - FINAL Kablooie!

[Iecerint]

HELLO GENTLEMEN.

I AM THE NEW MPR.

I WILL READ THE GAME AND FIND THE SCUM SOON.

[Iecerint]

Here's what I have as of the end of page 14. I'll finish the rest tomorrow :

TOWN
camn

Katsuki

Pom

SCUM
jenni
vezo
tanstalas

HMM
Budja
Katsuki

This list honestly wasn't edited much after sometime early D2 or so, but I kept note-taking.

As of end of page 5, I started taking notes:

1. camn looks town.

2. I thought Katsuki might be town for quickly voting vez without explanation in a way that might invite escalation,but reconsidered when he used 2SCUM4SCUM.

3. Jenni avoids calling vez scum, when he was (even considering his meta).

4. I thought tanstalas was scum for the Katsu bit, but now I doubt Katsu

5. Budja is scummy, but not with Tanstalas

From page 5:

6. Pom's point about jenni's "Conclusion" post is very good.

DAY 2 STARTS HERE

7. Clever vez-targeting. He's still obvscum for his play and that hammer, though. Dunno how I feel about tanstalas jumping to the (wrong and set-up) conclusion so quickly. Not a good sign, one way or the other.

8. Why the hell does FarCry like jenni? But it's not the kind of comment you'd make about your scumfriend OR scummy town, so idk. But then I guess she ultimately FoS's that slot, so.

9. Jenni 223 makes me want to hit my head against a wall. "VEZOZ WILL BE VEZOZ."

10. Far_Cry doesn't realize that town light sleepers give info and focuses instead on the town/mafia having the same roles angle. May be scum not feeling the need to analyze and geting caught up a little.

11. Elli's town list on 257 is bizarre for the most part.

12. So, MPR definitely shouldn't have lynched early, but I couldn't help cheering for him as I read it since I already knew the flip. And it wasn't really a "quickhammer;" I'd gotten tired of pages and pages of just WHERE IS VEZO, so.

DAY 3 STARTS HERE

13. Tanstalas sets up a 1-1 with Katsuki! Neat.

14. Katsuki...claims that she lied about the whole thing? I guess?

15. idk why FC is all LET'S BE CALM AND COLLECTED AND HUNT SCUM TOGETHER in her long post. Katsuki looks like the obvious lynch, and that's the ultimate conclusion of her exercise, anyway (in the form of an FoS).

Very sleepy, more tomorrow.

[Iecerint]

I didn't get strong enough feelings about you, no. To qualify for HMM, you have to be either conditional scum or conditional non-scum or formerly in another category.

Also maybe I will read the last half and get more of an opinion on you idk.

[Iecerint]

TOWN
camn
Pom
TBM
Jenni
Tanstalas=SX

SCUM
Katsuki
Budja=FC=NP

HMM
MBF

1. If Katsuki is scum AND tanstalas/SX is town, jenni may be scum.

2. I don't understand why jenni changes her mind about tantalas, or why camn applauds her for doing so, around 400. It doesn't look scummy, though. It also removes the other deduction I made in "1" above.

3. The combination of 1 and 2 make it less likely that jenni is scum.

4. MBF's reasons on MPR are fair. I'm surprised camn didn't point them out tbh. I figure she was trying to confirm her prior hypothesis.

5. I get extra town rays from camn, so I'm not sure why Elli is questioning her in 421. Also, she DID explain it already. Not necessarily scummy, though; just idk.

6. FC's attack on Jenni in 424 looks bad given my decision that Jenni is probably not scum above. The reasoning is bad, too; her case didn't "fail;" she got information that convinced her to look elsewhere, and on a (hypothetically) scummy townie.

7. Actually, I think we SHOULD reveal where we hid the previous night every night. While it's true that no one will lie, it's also true that hiding place locations per se are still informative. We can get information equivalent to everyone being a Light Sleeper without cost AFAIK.

8. I am sympathetic to tan's case on Katsuki/Elli in 439.

9. Katsuki is so scummy around 440-450.

10. OK, he keeps being scummy into the 450s.

11. I'm not sure why TBH totally ignores Katsuki in 465...but his case on FC is still good, and I think FC is scummy.

12. FC's response to TBM is consistent with a scum response. The part that TBM in 471 quotes is perfect - "I'm not getting a scum vibe here" about analysis of HIS OWN POST.

13. I hadn't noticed what Pom (and camn) apparently already knew at 475...

14. Katsuki is omfg.

15. I agree with Pom in 489 re: tans. And I was just getting a townier read from tans, too.

16. Not sure why MBF has good vibes on my slot in 491. EDIT: he explains it in his subsequent post.

17. NP(=FC) going after camn upon replace-in is awful. camn is not scum. Her push on Katsuki subsequent is way too sincere. The post is really canned; it looks like an active attempt to find another scumfriend for Katsuki more than anything else.

This also weakly implies that NP is not scum with Katsuki, though it may just be that he doesn't think he can avoid the lynch any other way.

18. Erm...dunno how I feel about camn's attitude toward NP's post...it's not what I would have expected at all...

19. Whaaa...drunken NP vote from camn (538) is even weirder in context...I...erm.

20. MBF's 563 is...well, it's not the way I see things, but I suppose it's workmanlike. And his conclusion doesn't address the dueling wagons. Strong towntell. On the other hand, his conclusion is sort of bogus. Jenni is pretty strongly town to me at this point in my readthrough. So that makes it just a weak towntell, cuz it looks slightly made-up.

21. Katsuki 567 is again v bad. She basically votes Jenni and then posts VCs that have no bearing on Jenni being scum. Looks just as made-up as MBF's thing, but without the bonus points of voting a non-wagon he had. Scummy.

22. Elli is straight-up CC'ing Katsuki's sleeping location? That seems to make things simple.

23. Oh...Katsuki...umm...lied earlier...? Huh? @ 575. Did he claim locations twice?

24. Why the hell is everyone voting Jenni @ TBM's 576.

25. Why does camn think Katsuki may be town in 584? Why is she more likely to be town than Jenni or NP (who I think she's votin at the time)?

26. ...Why does MBR also think Katsuki is town...? @ 588

THIS IS THE WEIRDEST PAGE OF THIS GAME BTW.

27. I don't see the motivation in Jenni being scum in 577, other than that she piped up when there was pressure on her.

28.

[Iecerint]

Thought summaries:

1.

camn

- 110% Town until the schizophrenic response to NP's bad case on her. I still think she's probably town

2.

MBF

- I disagree with most of his analysis, but I can usually see where he's coming from. Leaning town because of dependencies.

3.

Jenni

- I think she's town because of dependencies. I don't think she's the kind of player who would be sneaky and subvert this very well. I did at first think she was really scummy early game for her attitude toward vezok, though.

4.

Ellibereth

- Weak town read.

5.

Spyrex=tanstalas

- The same deal as with Jenni in terms of my read changing as I went along, but tanstalas also made some good posts toward the end.

6.

Pomegranate

- The activity level is not what I'd like, but her actual content shows pretty good evidence of analysis. I think this is townPom.

7.

Katsuki

- Extremely scummy. Has outright lied at least once, has repeated attacked players I think are town, and always opportunistically. The move on Jenni after MBF did so is a good example.

8.

NP=Far_Cry=Budja

- Pretty scummy. NP's a little better, but the case on camn looked fake to me, granted that her response to it was utterly bizarre and makes me give the benefit of the doubt on it a little. This makes me lean Katsuki over him.

9.

TheButtonmen

- Much clearer town play in the second half of the game.

[Iecerint]

7. Actually, I think we SHOULD reveal where we hid the previous night every night. While it's true that no one will lie, it's also true that hiding place locations per se are still informative. We can get information equivalent to everyone being a Light Sleeper without cost AFAIK.

On second thought, this will narrow heavy/light sleepers a little or a lot depending on what everyone chose. So there's that.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand why you think Pom is scum. She seems town to me.

Why do you think she's scum?

[Iecerint]

Namely, iso 6. I had the same O.o about the same point in Jenni's post when I read that, and I was happy someone caught it. Granted that it's scumhunting against a player I now think is town, I think that scumPom doesn't usually catch that sort of thing. She wallflowers (more than this Pom, who admittedly still wallflowers).

Caveat is that I have not played with Pom for several months.

Apart from that, it was just that her comments sometimes mirrored my own impressions as I read through.

Also, part of the reason I asked is that Pom is such a lurker in general that I dunno how you find her scum except by PoE.

[Iecerint]

So, how does your scum play differ from this game? Be specific.

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Spell out Pom. I came to the conclusion that she was town during my readthrough. Why did you think otherwise?

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Pom, if you think NP is the scum, why didn't you vote for him?

[Iecerint]

Vote: Pom

Answer my question.

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Why are you voting camn? Because she's voting Pom? Do you think Pom is town? What about SX?

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I believe I'm also voting for Pom, unless there are shenanigans.

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So, you most want to lynch Jenni, or Pom? I wouldn't consider either Jenni or Pom to be particularly useful so...

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This game has no pace. There is nothing to keep up with. And I dunno why you're freaking out about being lynched.

So yeah. Idk what's up with you at all. I was pretty sure you were town before that.

camn, plz answer.

[Iecerint]

Jenni < Nopoint < SPYREX < Pom in wanting-to-lynch.

Jenni > Nopoint > SPYREX > Pom in wanting-to-lynch.

Which one did you mean? That was the order you gave, so...

[Iecerint]

OK, so, whatever; which ones do you want to lynch? <_<

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Nice to see fresh meat. Want more from both slots.

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What made you lol again?

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WHOA THAT WAS AN ACCIDENT.

I promise.

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What is your favorite scummy thing that camn did?

I remember thinking she was town when I read, but I was also feeling really strongly that Katsuki was scum, so I should probably reread tbh.

What the hell's going on = mainly everyone is mourning Katsuki being town.

What made you call Elli town?

Did you make any notes as you read through? How did you construct that list (i.e. real-time vs. after reading everything)?

[Iecerint]

Yeah, but what sets camn apart from anyone else who did that?

idk Elli posts a lot but his posts don't usually say much IIRC.

k.

SpyreX has clout and he pulled a I AM SURE THAT ONE OF KATSUKI AND POM are scum thing out of nowhere yesterday and now people are like WELP W/E BRO I AM JUST BUMMED ABOUT KATSU.

Also Pom did not play the game and that is scummy but she is also Pom so I mean maybe it is just Pom.

[Iecerint]

OK. That makes more sense.

SX is rarely lynched in general. As for whether he's scum...I came to the conclusion that tan probably wasn't scum toward the end of my readthrough IIRC, but it was a flip-flop, and may'be again been based on Katskum...

[Iecerint]

@ TBM -- I've posted about twice as much as you since I replaced in if I'm not mistaken.

Though it's true that I haven't done much today due to /mourn.

Also, who was I throwing stones at? O.o

[Iecerint]

@ camn -- I'm pretty sure SX is implying that Pom's replacement (Dizzy) is the scummier out of she and saporo, not the least of which because Dizzy is the one who replaced Pom. Your "PS" bit implies you misread.

Elli hasn't really pushed for anything all game IIRC. That is the opposite of you, camn.

[Iecerint]

I don't get town radiation from Elli, no. I don't think he's particularly scummy, though.

I do disagree with her characterization of Elli's play some -- I never got the sense that he was "sticking his neck out" as I read along, etc.

But I don't really see scum motivations in stating it the way she did, so.

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So, camn, do you think that Dizzy is scum, or saporo, or both? I am again confused.

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Why do you think NP is scum with Pom? That doesn't make any sense to me. I'm pretty sure they aren't scum together.

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I asked you first.

But, namely, their interactions. It's not a default hypothesis for me.

I am assuming that you have a different interpretation.

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Pom never really attacked anyone that I can recall, though. Her behavior toward NP isn't different from her behavior toward anyone else IIRC. As such, using that as the basis of a scum connection is silly in her case. Also, those aren't her only references to NP.

NP calls Pom scum several times, albeit usually connected to someone else. I could maybe understand it from that end, I guess, but that's not where you came from.

What I was getting at is that your proposed scum connection didn't seem too thoughtful. Your defense of it seems like an absence of absence of evidence.

One thing I could point out (though I hadn't considered it explicitly until now) is that when I was scum with Pom, she never bussed or distanced. Ever. She's way too sweet. Though that was a long time ago, so it may have changed.

DGB, are those VCs correct?

[Iecerint]

You, sir, are very naughty.

NP is now at L-1, if shenanigans are making that VC correct.

I am leaning toward supporting lynches on camn, MBF, or SX. I would prefer one of those first two.

[Iecerint]

Nah, those are just the ones I'd support lynching at this point. I'm not positing that you're necessarily scumfriends or anything like that.

I have to add that I am somewhat sympathetic to some kind of a Dizzy rebuke based upon her being a very ill-behaved replacement, but I mean.

[Iecerint]

^ I dunno bro. camn wasn't a player who was under any suspicion at that point. It doesn't make sense to make someone look scum by linking them to a townie.

I guess you can argue that it was perfunctory distancing, though.

[Iecerint]

If anyone hid in TBM's room N1 or N2 and s/he noticed that TBM crumbed it (along with, ideally, another player), now is a good time to claim it.

[Iecerint]

OK, so, given that TBM had been out of his room the last time scum attempted to kill him (N3), it is VERY UNLIKELY that scum targeted his room attempting to kill him. This is because it is ideal for Heavy Sleepers to hide somewhere every night and for Light Sleepers to stay in their room every night. Since TBM had already hid somewhere else once, scum should have assumed he was a Heavy Sleeper and targeted his room only for a reason other than killing him.

Granted, TBM didn't hide in his room as a Light sleeper at least once (N3), which makes no sense to me (even though the outcome was good).

tl;dr => I doubt TBM was targeted to kill him per se. And even if there was an error there on a player's part (i.e. scum didn't think this out very carefully), TBM being targeted is easiest explained by his being a harder mislynch IMO, since his actual activity level had been low.

[Iecerint]

I basically said the same thing as SX, except that I explained it all out instead of only indicating that your hypothesis was unlikely.

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I'm between camn and SX, I think.

SX got some points for proposing Pom/Katsu false dichotomy upon replacing in that didn't make sense. The fact that it didn't pan out means that it's less likely he just cleverly noticed something I didn't that he didn't want to explain for whatever reason. Now it's more likely that he was setting up a mislynch.

[Iecerint]

I re-edited it with colors and edited it so one name goes with each player:

mongoose

(7): saporovirus, nopointinactingup, SpyreX,

Katsuki

, camn, Ellibereth,

vezokpiraka

vezokpiraka

(6): camn,

The Buttonmen

,

Pomegranate

,

Katsuki

, nopointinactingup, Iecerint

Katsuki

(6): SpyreX,

Pomegranate

, nopointinactingup, saporovirus, camn,

The Buttonmen

Pomegranate

(5): Iecerint, Ellibereth, camn, nopointinactingup, SpyreX

AN1: I personally apologize for being on the Pome/Dizzy lynch...I originally voted her to pressure her into answering, but then forgot about it. I certainly didn't think she would be hammered without claiming her hiding places, etc.
AN2: It's a little weird that MBF has never been on a lynch. MBF, is that par for the course for you?

One of [saporovirus, NP, SX, camn, Elli] is scum.
Exactly one of [camn, NP] is scum.
One of [SX, NP, saporovirus, camn] is scum.
One of [Elli, camn, NP, SX] is scum.

I am most inclined to lynch camn at this time, on the grounds that someone was likely bussing vezok (it's VEZOK), and I know it wasn't my slot; and that I am leaning town on NP at this time. Since yesterday, I have not gotten the sense that she is interested in finding scum, but rather in lynching players who are not her; her attitude toward MBF's vote for her today is typical.

Outside of that dichotomy, SX's slot looks the worst for being on town lynches and only on town lynches. He also vocally pushed to lynch the two most recent town lynches.

SX, were you aware that you were hammering Dizzy yesterday?

saporovirus needs to assist me with this immediately. Are there any dependencies you've worked out about who may be scum? Do you dispute anything I have asserted?

[Iecerint]

If one of me and nopoint is scum.. It's nopoint.
But I am not sure why you think that...
I do agree that there is scum on the Veso wagon.

Huh?

The set-up isn't really mountainous. It in fact becomes less and less mountainous as more and more scum die. I also don't get the boredom vibe from you. IMO You have seemed less apathetic than almost anyone in the game, with the possible exception of SX.

Iecerint saying >I< was bussing Vezo when his pred MPR pulled he biggest buss of all? suspect.

This is incorrect for two reasons. First, I am not scum. Second, given that I am not scum, using that information to find who bussed vezok is a very obvious use of my knowledge. Hell, you just did the very same thing.

In other words, using that information is null with regard to my alignment. If anything, it is slightly pro-town that I would discuss that issue, because it's highlighted something that might be difficult for me even though Elli, at least, appeared to have missed it, and the town is apathetic.

The argument that townCamn would make is that the circumstances of MPR voting vezo are scummier. Arguing that IecTown wouldn't look into the wagon that "implicates" him does not make sense.

ACCIO SAPORO

[Iecerint]

Anyone who hammers without getting hiding location claims from her is a scumlord.

I am inclined to request them.

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Incorrect. Being an unflipped player on vezok's wagon when so much of his wagon has already flipped means that being unflipped on that wagon has become a scumtell.

Granted, that it's not really a scumtell to someone who's just looking at probability and wasn't on vezok's wagon, since 33% is the same as the background probability for everyone else in the game to a town player at this point (discounting scumhunting and so forth, which may affect either proportion).

But that applies neither to you nor to me.

[Iecerint]

I will not stop trying to lynch you given an arbitrary deadline, no. I could imagine being convinced to lynch NP or SX or whomever. These are the kind of situations under which I would be convinced not to lynch you. Not because it became Saturday. That is dumb.

The exchange between camn and MBF is extremely interesting.

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Oh. I also forgot that that was directed at saporovirus, though. So there is that point, too.

Oh boy.

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camn, if you agree that lynching someone on vezok's wagon is ftw, why did you claim it wasn't a scumtell just a moment ago?

If I was bussing, he could be too.. it is not a tell.

Incorrect. Being an unflipped player on vezok's wagon when so much of his wagon has already flipped means that being unflipped on that wagon has become a scumtell.

just FTR... I agree completely!

O.o

[Iecerint]

I think it's an attempt to avoid the lynch (regardless of her alignment). It's not really an attempt to get someone to quickhammer.

I am extremely annoyed that MFB briefly implied knowledge that camn was lying. That kind of thing is all the excuse anyone (scum or otherwise) needs to justify a quickhammer. That it was not an accurate implication makes my tummy hurt.

[Iecerint]

Well, if he WERE a light sleeper, that would be fine. Crumbing the information is a fine way to get your stuff out there, though it would appear to have been a bit unnecessary in this case.

But he wasn't, so his behavior could have misled someone. At best, he was posturing and didn't consider his words very carefully.

[Iecerint]

If something makes you more likely to be scum, that is a tell in my book.

My complaint -- as I have indicated, but to be clear -- is not that I dispute it going both ways. It's that you argued that Iectown would not use "one scum on vezwagon" to find scum. That kind of rhetoric appeals to 3rd parties who use gut over logic -- who think "Hey! Iec's not being fair! Scum!" -- but not to Iectown's PoV (who wants to maximize the chance that a target is scum). So I still think it's scummy rhetoric.

I agree that it is semantics in the sense that it depends on what you meant when you said it.

I think Saporo said that she agreed. I have no idea why, but w/e:

Camn: agreed.

[Iecerint]

To clarify -- I can imagine a universe where a town person would mix that up (i.e. it's not a RELIABLE tell because WTF YOU DID IT vs. i agree that it will push the probability in that direction).

But it looked like you were rhetoric-ing. Not unlike what MBF did. <_<

Except that MBF doesn't have a troubling vote history AFAICT (have not checked in detail). <_<_<

[Iecerint]

Fair enough...I didn't mean "bussing" in the context of evaluating the specifics of a point when a player changed his attitude toward a hypothetical scumfriend. I just meant that someone was lynching his VI-tier scumfriend ("bussing" defined liberally), so we should use PoE to proceed.

/off-topic

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You have to assume things to find scum. You can explain anything away as an "assumption."

Are there specific claims you object to, or is your complaint procedural?

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1. Your arbitrary deadline is garbage, and just more evidence of you being scum.
2. And like I said, if you aren't lynched by Saturday, then I will unvote you and proxy my vote to you.
3. So I, too, am agreed.

What on earth is going on.

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Yeah...SX is still being coy about his hammer yesterday. <_<

The problem with agreeing is that if camn is scum, whoever else is scum just needs to lurk through Saturday to drastically reduce the chance of his/her scumfriend being lynched.

You made your choice on the premise that everyone is town and will rally if given a deadline, but ye know.

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I'm not voting for you. I'm not voting for anyone.

You haven't accused me of anything, so there is nothing to "try to dismantle." But I would.

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^ Sounds made-up to me.

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Hey guys I heard SX might be kinda scummy.

You will have to figure out what I am thinking for yourselves, though.

If you can figure it out, I will like you more.

Oh wait. I already let it slip earlier. Too bad.

[Iecerint]

"If I state a case on Iec and do not explain it but rather invite others to make it for me, and Iec objects to that, he is scum (or, at any rate, you should lynch him). OMG HE IS DOING IT. SCUMZ!"

[Iecerint]

I'm not sure why you're doing what you're doing, no. Those are not conditions that make me think someone is town, no.

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Um, no. If you do bullshit like "I have a case try to guess it" I am *already* in the candy store.

Anyway, I haven't prevented you from giving a case. And it's not as I have prevented anyone else from doing the same.

I have not entered said candy store because the prior probability of NP or camn being scum is higher, so you have wiggle room from me than you ordinarily would.

[Iecerint]

Basically, you did something scummy, and now are arguing that you are not scum for having done something so ostentatious.

Does not compute.

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SX's behavior clearly has a point, one way or the other. Describing our interaction as pointless is what really makes no sense.

As for camn's theory of what SX is going on about -- if that's it (my slot did X in the past; therefore, I cannot judge people who do X), it's pretty much the same logical error as when camn disputed my point about vezokwagon membership (except that it should be even clearer that it's an error, because in camn's case we're talking about VC analysis and in SX's case we're talking about a player's strategy or whatever).

[Iecerint]

Incorrect. SX has claimed that he was unaware that he was lynching Dizzy/Pome.

Also, the hammer is not the only reason that SX is scummy.

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Taking it that way requires you to believe that SX really hammered mistakenly. Which, I mean. "OK," but.

Other reasons I have mentioned several times in the past few pages is his lynch history in general (on all townie lynches; off all scum lynches), and setting up a Pome/Katsuki dichotomy without backing it up that didn't go anywhere.

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1. Really? I doubt it. That implies that activity itself is a scumtell, unless you're defining buss in a sneaky way that forces scum to do it more.

2. Of course they do. The scum are not given to us like manna from heaven. However, when town make scum dichotomies, there's usually something going on upstairs, or some rationale that connects the implicated players. Scum just grab scummier townies (though I didn't think Pome herself was that scummy) and gogogo.

Also, SX's Pome hammer has nothing to do with whether his dichotomy was bull.

[Iecerint]

Town players in this game: please stop using bogus logic and/or rhetoric. It is messing up my scumhunting.

[Iecerint]

I'd been very open that I supported that Katsu wagon. I didn't vote him because we were still considering other possibilities (NP, his camn case, etc). I would have voted him at deadline. I do that a lot. I like days to go on forever. That's part of why I objected to camn's Saturday plan and why I haven't voted camn. SX knows this, btw, because we always bitch about it when we play together.

I didn't change my vote from Pome (placed to make her post early that day) because I hadn't decided who to change my vote to. I didn't anticipate that SpyreX would hammer her without claims or anything.

Regarding camn -- first, camn went from town to idkmebescum after reviewing the Katsu material again. Saporo is the one who got me thinking about it; I have a lot of respect for her reads. I'd thought Katsu was scum, so I hadn't thought about camn's behavior in a negative light before that. I mention this as soon as saporo brought it up, so your claim that there was a quick shift to camnscum is an error.

(EDIT:

I remember thinking she was town when I read, but I was also feeling really strongly that Katsuki was scum, so I should probably reread tbh.

So it looks like it's possible to read this without making the connection, but that's what I meant here.)

Also, it is not a secret at all (like, it's literally impossible to miss this) that I thought camn and NP were the best players to lynch because of the vezok wagon. This is an extremely huge point. I even include this discussion IN THE PART SX JUST QUOTED. I also explicitly mention why I would be OK with lynching you, again in that bit you just quoted:

I am most inclined to lynch camn at this time, on the grounds that someone was likely bussing vezok (it's VEZOK), and I know it wasn't my slot; and that I am leaning town on NP [the other unflipped vezok wagon member] at this time. Since yesterday, I have not gotten the sense that she is interested in finding scum, but rather in lynching players who are not her; her attitude toward MBF's vote for her today is typical.

Outside of that dichotomy, SX's slot looks the worst for being on town lynches and only on town lynches. He also vocally pushed to lynch the two most recent town lynches.

This extremely clearly establishes that my top three suspects are camn, NP, and SX.

Meta-point on Iec -- I'm much more tentative as town than scum IMO. For example, I'm much more likely to enter the day with an agenda as scum. As town I go around and entertain different possibilities. I suspect that SX knows this, though I'm not sure we've had a direct confrontation about it before (may have happened in Of Gods and Men D1).

I'm not going to dispute that MPR's quickhammer was awful, though. I hate people that do that kind of thing.

[Iecerint]

Of everything I brought up that is the least important. To such a degree I'm paranoid it wasn't an accident.

What are you referring to? I responded to all of your comments.

BUT, what happened to the about me having nothing? About me just wanting others to do my work for me? Where is it?

Pure rhetoric. This comment serves no function.

Instead I get "ohh yea I totally would have voted there" and "ohh it was a total accident and SpyreX is the bad dude for it"

This was not new information at all. There is no "ohh yea." And you are indeed a bad dude for hammering.

and even lol, meta meta meta.

You know perfectly well that I invariably self-meta when appropriate as town. I have used this where relevant 100% of the time as town, and I've been town with you many times. You are only saying this for rhetorical effect. You know as well as I do that it has nothing to do with my alignment. It is in fact a statistical towntell due to that second sentence there.

You parked a vote on a town read versus anything else.

This kind of sentence makes me more sure you're scum and not just mistaken. This is not how a town player frames this issue. It shows that you are more concerned with the context a player has constructed before placing a vote rather than external circumstances that led to a vote.

SX has used really shitty logic to call me scum before (in Of Gods and Men). I was in fact so convinced by his bad rhetoric that I thought he might be scum in spite of having already performed a big towntell due to the circumstances of his premature claim in that game. That is the only reason I am not voting SX at this point.

@ camn -- light sleepers must stay in their rooms. They cannot hide and see. That's why we mentioned that TBM's behavior was so weird.

[Iecerint]

Then you are criticizing my view of the game rather than presenting an argument that I am scum. Your case (or, at least, the aspects of it that you discuss in that very lengthy post) is a big ad hominem.

You have misread my comment on your behavior, though. I did not say that you are always scummy. You are not always scummy. You are not even usually scummy. You do, however, have a history of using irrational, bizarre reasoning to think I'm scum when I'm not.

I am aware that you do not like meta. Like much of the rest of that post: what does that have to do with anything?

[Iecerint]

It is not "bendy-straw" -- it is a very meaningful distinction. You usually seem very town to me in general. That is literally the opposite of you always seeming scum, so it is meaningfully not the same thing.

It's only your attitude toward my play specifically, especially in recent games, that I instinctually regard as scummy (because it strikes me as irrational), even though I know you have done it where we are both town (and I give Of Gods and Men as an example).

Regarding camn's vote for me -- it does seem odd to me, especially since she'd just called me town like 10 posts in a row or something (in retrospect, maybe because I was in a position to hammer her at that time). I'd have expected her to refer back to that or see evidence of grappling with a change of heart or something, but I mostly just saw her express excitement at SX's detective skills IIRC.

NP -- what is your attitude toward my speculation about the vezok wagon? You're the 3rd player for whom it is relevant.

If we have 3 LSs left, that kind of plan might work. If we have 2 left (my assumption, but idk), it's OK. With 1 left, it is a bad idea. I am ambivalent about the plan.

[Iecerint]

Why is SX obvtown? I assume you're convinced by the character of his attack on me?

If you think NP and I are partners, your vezok wagon plan does not make sense.

Also, why do you think NP in particular is my partner?

This absurd notion that you are town (excuse me -- that you can't be lynched) because it became Saturday without my deciding to hammer you remains absurd.

[Iecerint]

I don't think a double buss of camn+NP makes much sense. That is why I think there is exactly 1 scum. I also don't think that that is a very likely scum pairing. At the very least, the vezok wagon should no longer be the basis of scumhunting after a scum has flipped there.

What makes you suboptimal from a neutral PoV? That I, one of the players promoting your lynch, didn't want to lynch you just yet?

I see SX diverting attention away from you with logic that can only be arrived at by ignoring his own play history with me. Since the two of you were my top suspects that could be partners (since camn+NP is less likely), it is not obvtown to me at all.

I think you ignored my other question. Why do you think NP in particular is my partner?

[Iecerint]

Light sleepers of both alignments have already flipped. We know that both factions have light sleepers.

I don't think we know how many light sleepers there are, though. Am I mistaken?

I don't understand your questions about the "crux." These are my feelings about you:

1. You're suspicious for the voting and rhetorical habits of your slot: lynching townies, not lynching scum, pushing proven-false scum dichotomies (Katsu/Pome) on townies.

2. But the chance of you being scum is smaller than camn or NP, because each of those are near 50% presuming at least 1 scum bussed, whereas the scum who isn't them is in a larger subset of players, so finding camn/NPscum is a better first exercise, all things being equal.

3. Your attack on me is bad, and I've tried to explain why you should really understand that, and it would be extremely scummy if it were (almost) anyone else doing it, but I think you said similar things about me in Of Gods and Men (D1 there, though, so some things obviously are different), so I know it isn't beyond townSX to do this sometimes.

In other words, (1), even with (3), is not sufficient to overshadow (2).

If that doesn't answer your "crux" question, please restate it.

[Iecerint]

@ SX's hypocrisy claim --

I am assuming that this is based on your view that I was on Pome's lynch "cheerled" Katsu's. Correct me if I am mistaken.

1. The Pome situation only exists because you hammered prematurely. This is entrapment, etc.

2. You can fairly complain about me not voting Katsu. The reason is the same as with Pome, though; I take forever to vote or change my vote (in part because I hate premature hammers).

3. With 1 and 2, the hypocrisy you allude to does not exist (unless you wanna compare MPR quickhammering scum to your quickhammering townPome, which isn't really quite hypocrisy as MPR's behavior has no bearing on my attitudes about the game).

4. You know my town meta, so it is my view that you should logically accept (1) and (2), unless you want to argue that I sneakily did something normatively scummy (i.e. tentative voting) as scum in conflict with my actual scum meta, which is bogus, because behaving in a scummy fashion invites suspicion from players who don't know my meta already, and I am too much of a weenie for that. [/self-meta] [/WIFOM] <--- But this is still valid. You have to posit absurd and unnecessary machinations otherwise.

Yes, the reason I think you are the off-vezok scum is because you've set up mislynches ("Pom and Kat were town") and have an incriminating voting history (only lynching town -- which technically doesn't really apply to my slot either way, so your hypocrisy claim is a little sketchy on its own, but I'm letting that one slide due to 1-4 above being adequate to address your issue).

@ camn -- You should not postulate a chainsaw from MBF while simultaneously using NP-Iec to explain events. If you try to explain things to yourself that way, the probability that you are mistaken is literally 100%.

MBF makes no sense, though. I think he was saying I was scum, like, last night sometime?

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Oh, nevermind. Before he just postulated a Iec-camn scumteam before. Which is still weird from my PoV, but it means there isn't a new contradiction.

[Iecerint]

I am not saying that all errors can be avoided. However, some mistakes can be avoided. For example, even if you are sure I am not scum, I cannot be scum with both MBF and NP. Analyze the game with only one possibility in your head at a time, or you will explain away things inappropriately -- because you can't explain away NP defending me AND MBF's attack on you in this fashion in the same universe. Doing that is not just a mistake, but a logical error.

HOWEVER:

Tar's Chainsaw Defense, as I understand it, means that scum attacks town attacking a scumfriend. You appear to understand it differently. That is the source of my confusion with regard to your play.

I'm not defending either of those players; I'm critiquing how you appeared to be analyzing things (both to point it out to everyone if you are scum and to point it out to you if you are not). But your new discussion shows that there was no problem.

[Iecerint]

IIRC, you had concerns about her that I thought were not valid, but then I asked her a question about one of them. Time passed without her answering, so I asked her again and voted her. As such, it wasn't "toss-on" vote. That's not to mention that I was the first vote on her, so you shouldn't mistake it as a toss-on vote in any case. I suppose I could've dropped my vote after Dizzy replaced in (!), but she was a little sketchy, anyway, and I wasn't sure I wanted to change my vote yet.

I wasn't voting anyone when Katsu was lynched, so I'm not sure what you're going for there. If you're making a contrast with Pome, the situations are very different. I voted for Pome to get her to answer my question, not to lynch her.

I vehemently disputed your Pome/Katsu dichotomy over and over and over. Claiming otherwise is bogus. I know I explicitly asked you about it at least 3 times, because there was no clear dependency between the two players.

(I am not answering anything else in this game that involves the word meta. The simple fact you are pushing this claiming to know both your scum and town metas is sooo amazingly bad I have no words).

This is a statement evaluating my attitude toward the game. It does not evaluate my alignment. I hope everyone watching this interaction understands that. Moreover, SX KNOWS from past experience that I ALWAYS self-meta as town. He's being a playstyle policeman, not a scumhunter. This is scummy.

Also, the WIFOMmeta argument he alludes to here is totally valid IMO. SX is ignoring it on categorical grounds because he can't deal with it on any other basis.

[Iecerint]

Thus, the simple fact you are self-aware of what you would call 'meta' means, by nature, that meta is worthless.

This logic applies in most cases, but not here. The difference is that I'm not arguing that some event X makes me town (like, a certain NK choice or whatever) because of meta. That kind of thing is easy to fake. Instead, I'm arguing that patterns of events going back 2 days make me town based on meta. It's POSSIBLE that I deliberately played to my town meta to fool everyone (by doing something -- being tentative with votes -- that appears scummy to most people, even! so this would be an even MORE silly gamble), but it's EXTREMELY unlikely.

If you agree with my characterization of my meta, the only reasonable thing to do is to accept that I am town. Otherwise, you have to believe in a mass conspiracy.

You *may* dispute my characterization of my meta, but that is not what anyone who knows how I play has done so far (NP, Elli, SX would qualify).

FURTHER (AND THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART) utilizing said 'meta' for a defense isn't just worthless - it IS scummy. Meta isn't a shield that you can hide behind.

Incorrect. It is verifiably not scummy when I do it (i.e. in the sense that it doesn't indicate that I am scum). You can do a statistical analysis of when I use self-meta. It is a towntell for me.

You can say that meta isn't a compelling argument, or that you disagree that meta should play into analysis, but that is different from a claim that I am more likely to be scum because I self-meta'd.

I have never claimed that MPR's hammer was awesome. I just can't speak to why he did what he did. THAT SAID -- at least he hammered (I think?) after claims and (I know!) hit scum.

Your other two points have totally ignored my responses to them, so I'll drop that and let other players evaluate my responses on their own.

I'm not sure what your last line is about. Assuming I'm understanding correctly -- I don't know for sure whether you're scum. Only scum knows that. I don't know why you appear to imply that my lack of certainty about your alignment would make me scum.

To make my scumreads perfectly clear, this is where I am at this point:

<NP, camn>
<MBF, SX>

One scum in each group.

[Iecerint]

I talk about meta in literally every game. I also self-meta in a lot of them. I always do it honestly, though, so I'm much more likely to self-meta as town.

My games are all in my wiki. Alignment is listed.

As I just indicated, yeah, you can find evidence of self-meta as scum (let alone reference to "meta" by itself -- that kind of heuristic is just laughable).

And in case anyone misses it -- it should be obvious that this isn't backpedaling, because I would have to be backpedaling away from claims I never made. The only player to claim that I have never alluded to meta as scum is SpyreX.

[Iecerint]

It is a towntell because given that I have done it, I am more likely to be town than the background probability. That is the definition of a towntell. Hence, it is a towntell. The reason this is slipping you up is that it is atypical.

You are incorrect about /self-meta being categorically useless. As I explain in the first sentence of 963, it is SOMETIMES useless, but not always. I've spelled out why this case is different twice now, I think.

[Iecerint]

Sapo and Elli -- who do you think is scum?

[Iecerint]

Its the dissonance in his voting versus what he's said I'm scum for.

wat

[Iecerint]

And I never man up. And I want Elli to tell me who the scum are first.

[Iecerint]

If SpyreX (or whoever) lynches camn before Elli can post, I will be extremely annoyed.

[Iecerint]

The probability that I am scum with camn is relatively small. Bussing is a comparatively high-cost activity in this game, because it becomes easier and easier to find the last scum as more scum flip due to the remaining one having to set bombs.

/WIFOM, but I mean.

Prod: Elli

[Iecerint]

I am skeptical that any thinking person would think I was scum with camn as anything other than an extremely outside chance to keep in mind, so yeah.

But that just makes me more want to lynch camn and less want to lynch you so.

So long as I've already gone into meta-world, I should note that I don't think I've ever bussed scum going into a day like this before. Hell, I kind of temporize a little even when a teammate is confirmed scum sometimes. Dunno how else to address MBF's concerns given that they're legit.

[Iecerint]

Saporo named SX and camn as the two scum in her replace-in post. It's not as if her wanting to lynch camn is a surprise (as NP frames it).

[Iecerint]

Saporo's post is about how camn's antics are anti-town-to-scummy. I'll admit that it's quite weird that she had such strong feelings and never let them out during that big lull, though.

Iecerint is /jekerint/, except that the middle e is a schwa. Elli's way where you drop it is cute, though.

camn is being jesus-on-the-cross for some reason @ NP. She was doing this earlier with her IMMUNITY AFTER SATURDAY FOR I MUST NOT DISTRACT MAI TOWNE thing, too.

[Iecerint]

Oh. I hadn't noticed that saporo had been voting camn.

vote: camn

This is not particularly going anywhere and I'm not sure about spyre.

Camn: if you're town, you're being incredibly selfish. Your contributions lately: "One of the scum is on the vezo wagon. OMG ALL U PEOPLE VOTING FOR ME I WILL TAKE THIS RIDICULOUS STANCE RATHER THAN ATTEMPTING TO ADDRESS ANY OF YOUR CONCERNS ABOUT ME OR SCUMHUNT. I WILL TAKE A FEW PAGES TO DO THIS. Ohai Spyrex you made a good case, Iec's scum. OMG SAPO I WOULD LIKE TO LYNCH U FOR NOT FOLLOWING THE RULES I MADE UP BECAUSE THIS GAME IS ABOUT ME AND HOW I AM TOWN MOSTLY OK. I WILL SELF HAMMER BECUZ MY LIFE IS A VALE OF TEARS AND THIS WILL PROVE STUFF SOMEHOW."

But I'm not going to let you self-hammer.

unvote
vote: Spyrex

Yeah...

[Iecerint]

1. saporo is a girl.

2. saporo's vote for SX is weird, because she went from voting camn because she wasn't sure about voting SX to voting SX because...she wanted to keep camn from lynching herself.

[Iecerint]

Vote: camn

I'm convinced by the move you just pulled on NP. That's one changed attitude toward a player within a day too many.

[Iecerint]

Hmm. I guess I should claim, then?

I'm a light sleeper, which should be pretty obvious to anyone paying attention.

1. No one slept in my room N1 or N2.
2. N3 Pomegranate and NP both slept in my room. This is why I told camn that I thought they couldn't be scum together. It's also part of why I've been leaning camnscum, because NP could only be scum-that-doesn't-set-bombs, whereas camn can be either remaining scumslot, so the prior probability that she is scum is greater. Together with the Vezok wagon, I wanted to lynch camn.
3. N4 no one slept in my room.

[Iecerint]

It should be obvious because:

1. I have evidenced really disproportionate interest in the light sleeper mechanic (though I've self-consciously tried to censor a lot of this out of my actual posts).
2. I kept pointing out an evasive "man I don't think NP or Pome are scumfriends camn that just seems so weird to me!" thing N3 that I refused to clarify other than like cf. "interactions." Camn picked up on this and kept asking about it, so it wouldn't have been easily missed.

camn's decision to frame this for saporo in terms of "honoring her agreement" as a function of her "integrity" is scummy. Saporo should lynch scum rather than base it on a very silly "lynch me by Saturday" mess camn made up a few weeks ago.

[Iecerint]

Earlier today, you thought the case on you was good, if equivalent to hypothetical cases on me or NP. Now you are the victim of a crap case.

[Iecerint]

Sure, I think that the Logic behind POE on the Vezo wagon is good.....
I also actually support lynching ME to narrow the pool of veso-voters...... but how on earth are you contesting that I AGREED WITH THE CASE ON ME??

The case on you as I presented it is derived from your presence on the Vezo wagon. Hence, you agree with the case on you (i.e. you think it's a valid case, rather than a crap case).

The extra piece of evidence against you (that didn't come out until my claim) is that NP (the other vez wagoner) is mathematically half as likely to be scum as you, because he hid in my room N3. You haven't necessarily agreed with that part, admittedly, but it's simple math, and NP has confirmed that he hid with me N3.

If you have already complained about a crap case before, that is more evidence that your complaint is rhetoric rather than analysis. I know this because you agree with the Vezok wagon PoE.

Nice SX impression at the end there.

[Iecerint]

I had forgotten that you claimed hiding elsewhere every night. That is an excellent point. Could you re-list where you claimed to have hidden? N3 is the night that matters, though; not N4.

That's true. If we could reasonably assume that you hid somewhere N3, you're no longer math-scummier than NP. It wouldn't be quite as confirmed to me as NP, but fair enough for sure.

Yep, I stayed in my room each night. That's the obvious move for light sleepers. And you can be pretty sure I'm a light sleeper, since NP has confirmed it, and my Pome/NP statement yesterday doesn't make sense otherwise.

I'd point out that scum aren't as likely to have too many light sleepers since vezok already flipped LS, but it doesn't matter too much because LSs don't do much for scum AFAICT... still, I'd assume it'd be relatively proportional, which would probably weakly imply 1 scum LS.

[Iecerint]

Incorrect. That's 2 town light sleepers (me and TBM) and 1 scum light sleeper (vezok).

Unless someone else claimed it and I missed it.

[Iecerint]

Oh. -_-

I totally missed that. Why the hell did you claim way back then? And why didn't you claim your results at that time?

Well, 3/1 is still the expected ratio with 3:1 town/scum in the game. DGB could subvert it, but balancing "PRs" is still most likely.

[Iecerint]

Did you just claim to be a heavy sleeper who had 3 dead townies and then Camn stay with you?

[Iecerint]

I thought you were trying to CC my N3 Pom claim for some reason while failing in about 3 ways.

I doubt there's any meaning in claiming at this point, but I guess it can't hurt.

[Iecerint]

ACCIO SAPORO

[Iecerint]

Deadline is Friday. Saporo, come lynch camn plz. Elli can, too, if he wants, w/e.

[Iecerint]

It looks like she declared V/LA elsewhere.

[Iecerint]

I've PM'd you a link to it now.

[Iecerint]

I think it's unlikely that there will be no kill given that two light sleepers have claimed. We may even get some information overnight, risky though that seems. And I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

@ Elli -- If no one ever stayed with you, why does your LS status have anything to do with Katsu being town?

[Iecerint]

@ Elli -- Because I asked you who stayed with you (as that is VERY RELEVANT and you've already claimed), and you didn't claim anyone.

@ camn -- You've established that it's a problem regardless of which of us is lynched in the event that we're both town. That situation applies regardless of who I want to lynch, though. My best move is to want to lynch scum and avoid it.

[Iecerint]

Saporo's avoidance of this issue only makes sense to me if camn is scum with her.

1. If she were town, she would make this kind of situation a priority instead of avoiding it (e.g. announcing V/LA that goes past deadline in another game while ignoring this one).

2. If she were scum and both of us were town, she would lynch camn because camn has been her biggest scumread all game, and I have been among her biggest townreads.

3. And if she were scum with me, she'd still lynch camn.

Lynching me goes against her prior reads, so it's something slightly harder for her to do.

This also contextualizes two odd things she has done this game.

A. Even though camn was her major suspect, she's not rhetoric'd against her at all today.

B. When she listed camn and SX as her major suspects upon replacing in, she named SX the greater of those two. When I said that SX probably wouldn't be the lynch, she responded in an unusual way:

Are you saying we can't lynch spyre?

Which has funny pragmatics.

The only problem with all that is that it doesn't explain her more recent post about camn very well, though I suppose her being town doesn't explain it much better.

[Iecerint]

I wasn't here during all that, but I still don't understand why lying would make you town. BUT W/E.

I'm already relying on NP hiding with me as a towntell. If any living players hid with you ever, you should tell ASAP, because that lowers the chance that they are scum -- especially if they did it after vezok died.

[Iecerint]

Because it is less confirmed, and I'm comparing you to NP, whose

ARE

IS confirmed.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, but you're asking about the reason for my behavior, so that's the perspective you should evaluate it from.

Mike made me uncomfortable there, but only so many players can be scum.

[Iecerint]

I know 100% that NP hid with me once. I am only pretty sure you hid where you said you did.

I agree that your announcement of hiding locations makes you somewhat less likely to be scum.

However, basically, I really don't want to believe that there were no scum on that wagon, so I have to stick with you being scum.

At best, your hiding information just cancels out NP's.

[Iecerint]

The deadline was pushed back due to Saporo's V/LA.

[Iecerint]

@ camn -- Because "at best" does not mean the same thing as "btw."

[Iecerint]

Right now? Saporovirus. I went into this a few posts ago.

[Iecerint]

@ SX -- Well, you can't ALL be scum... <_<

I do think your case on me seemed really contrived, which fits with camn-SX, since there was building pressure on camn. But saporovirus's behavior toward this game is really scummy, too.

@ NP -- Maybe, but no bussing on VEZOK blows my mind. I MEAN IT IS VEZOK.

[Iecerint]

Why does sapo scum mean no bussing on Vezok?

Good lord game I hope you pull it together.

Saporo/camn means bussing. SX/saporo would mean no bussing. You asked why you weren't scum.

This should not be hard to put together. Your comments like this seem more designed to discredit me than to evaluate my comments. These kinds of comments are why I think you may be scum.

[Iecerint]

I had not noticed that. That is a good find, and it increases the chance that Saporo is scum with someone who isn't camn.

I am leaning toward lynching her straight-up now.

[Iecerint]

Camn/Iec scumteam makes 0% sense. The probability is literally 0%. It is in fact more like -50%. There is almost no less likely scum pairing in this game.

[Iecerint]

Unvote

[Iecerint]

Vote: Saporovirus

[Iecerint]

It is my professional opinion that someone should unvote me at this time.

[Iecerint]

Kill the witch IMO.

I nominate Elli and NP as my wagonmages. SX can come if he wants idc.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: wagonmates****

[Iecerint]

Elli, you also need to give us who hid with you ASAP. Like, NAO. Because you may not survive the night, etc.

[Iecerint]

Given that I survive to tonight, I will need to

request replacement

. I apologize to everyone. I have sent an explanation to Ms. DGB.

I will help her find a replacement if necessary.

[Iecerint]

I will not change my vote or use rhetoric (except to defend myself) until deadline today, when I will need to be replaced (or whatever DGB decides). I can address concerns about my play up to deadline, though.

[Iecerint]

I'm RL friends with sapo, and I inadvertently figured out both that she was scum and who her partner was. That was why I had to replace out.

I think looking at the wagon to get the 1-1 between NP and camn was a good move on my part. I wish I'd given more stock to camn's announcing her hiding targets every day, though. NP's position on that wagon was scummier, anyway. Sorry.

I still don't understand why SX thought I was scummy...I could see my slot playing into a 1-1 analogous to the above case, but that's all. He should know me better than that.

Congrats to NP and Sapo.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, I'd never played with you before, so I just based that on the earlier analysis of yours I'd read, which (frankly) seemed a little superficial -- in retrospect, it was because it was pretend, but I miscalculated. Good job fooling me.

/drunkpost