Mini 1194: Reverse Mafia [Game Over]

[malpascp]

Hello ppls

I'm "ketchuping" the thread, will post decent stuff today.

[malpascp]

Hi there pps

I just read the thread, and I'm now giving you my thoughts on this game.

The inicial wagon on Parama was waaaay too weird. Almost without reason, 4 votes were in this wagon at page 1! Parama's #183 really scared me. First, he says that crypto is town, just because he said wredfar was scum. Just like that. Also on the end of this post, he takes down Packbat without any reason, when he has already some votes. He just says like "believe me, I know this". And those votes are withdrawn. Now he is already alive, so if I am bothering you, I will talk about Parama D1.

Crypto just seem very, very scummy, I have no idea why Parama said he was town. He did nothing besides "wredfar is scum". Weird.

AntB is putting himself away of the game. Like he did on #125, #135, #144 and #157 are really funny to see as a whole. Very similar to crypto.

IMO, today's revival is Packbat or Bub, not SC.

kiwi seems scummy to me too, but I'll have to make a post on this later.

For now, my vote stays on my pocket.

[malpascp]

Sorry for my absence.

Me prefering Packbat over Bub is just by gut. I am aware that is not a good argument, but I would revive any of these, but I have this warm, cosy feeling that Pack is town.

@TT: what do you mean with "Parama came of as genuine"? As far as I know, we are only sure about someone's alignment when that person dies.

Anyway, as I said, he is already revived, so I should leave this discussion to D1.

@AntB: saying that "I will do nothing until [something happens] doesn't delay the game. You are putting yourself asside.

We should be aware that, if we revive two scumbuddies, it'a game over. My read on this game so far is that, if Parama was scum, the most likely person to be his partner would be SC. That's why I won't revive him today, despite the existence of even scummier people.
Reviving SC is, in my opinion, the riskiest thing we could possibilly do today.

Also SC's vote on kiwi and his justification on #245. He appears to be informed about the information that was given to mafia, and that worries me. Also kiwi didn't say a word about SC's vote.

I think I answered it all.

Vote: Packbat

[malpascp]

Well, that was weird. Not sure if I'm happy about it, though...

We'll have to way a couple of days to start understanding this move I guess.

[malpascp]

Tell me you are kiding Slaxx. Please...

[malpascp]

No way you said that Parama -.-

[malpascp]

Oh man you did it again!

(This one sounded cool)

[malpascp]

Slaxx wasn't joking, I guess.

No kill, also according to the rules.

There aren't any big news, so I will stick to my D1 reads.

Bub is the best revival for today, right?

Sorry if I said something stupid, I'm a bit sleepy right now.

[malpascp]

I think both Packbat and Crypto are town. That's it. We should move to today's revival, not the living guys. If someone dies tonight, we will know if we have living scum or not. Anyway, Bub is our best shot.

[malpascp]

Guys, we can't kill right now. I also think bobsnox's claim is very, very weird, but maybe something is missing us. Maybe the role isn't that unbalanced, because it causes a great improvement to town if it hits mafia? In that case, that would mean that there are probabily two mafia. Can someone give thoughts about this idea?
btw, I still think Bub is the nicest limbo-guy (besides me, obv )

[malpascp]

@Parama: didn't get the point.

Probabily bobsnox realised how easy is to get revived with a claim. I disagree Bub when he says the claim itself doesn't matter; it does, because it is very unlikely. It doesn't make sense, as far as I see. It would probabily be the most powerfull role in the game, and bobsnox play didn't reflect that.

[malpascp]

I agree with Bub's revival. But I want to ask something to everyone.

@Everyone: besides Bub, who should we revive today?

[malpascp]

Thiiiissss gaaaameee neeeedsss toooo mooooooooove. *slow motion*

[malpascp]

Me is good

7 players agree on Bub being brought to life.

[malpascp]

@kiwi: why did you say I pushed for bobsnox revival? I was clearly against it (I think)

[malpascp]

I just noticed something interesting.

Take a look at post #400.

CDB says he can't tell how bobsnox power would interfeer with town win-condition. This means that role isn't predicted in the setup, making bobsnox claim absolutely false!

bobsnox is scum

I'm so smart

[malpascp]

Yes, I know. But if bobsnox role existed, the mod would tell us if the town win condition was affected or not.

[malpascp]

kiwi, pom, toasty, sc = my scumlist if anyone cares. maybe kiwi is just bad town but the others are giving me heavy scumvibes.

Explanation?

why are you guys even talking about me anymore? just get some more townies alive and call me when you nail scum

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

I just noticed something interesting.

Take a look at post #400.

CDB says he can't tell how bobsnox power would interfeer with town win-condition. This means that role isn't predicted in the setup, making bobsnox claim absolutely false!

bobsnox is scum

I'm so smart

*cough* bussing *cough*

Yeah, everyone had already noted this.

@kiwi: why did you say I pushed for bobsnox revival? I was clearly against it (I think)

You didn't answer this yet.

Maybe we should use all the day to discuss on who is scum before someone hammers Bub

[malpascp]

why are you guys even talking about me anymore? just get some more townies alive and call me when you nail scum

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

I was translating bobsnox's post. Duh.

I don't get Parama's point. Slaxx being scum wouldn't end the game, so I don't see where Toasty town-sliped.

Anyway, I think Bub and SC being scumbudies is highly unlikely reading the whole game. Bub is our best shot for today, and I dislike everyone suddenly seeing Toasty as near conf-town.

@Everyone: any thoughts on connections between Toasty and anyone else alive?

[malpascp]

Hum...
I'm pretty sure you can't vote.

If anyone has questions to make me, do them, please.

[malpascp]

Also, I agree that Toasty is defininitely town.

I don't. All the townslip thing is WIFOM. We don't use the word "definitively" on mafia (at least I try not to).

[malpascp]

Hey look who the people trying to discredit the townslip are - the ones I find scummy! WOOP WOOP.

Did SC, Bub, kiwi and MrTrow all disagree you?

And there was noone you didn't say was scummy disagree you?

Besides, I don't think there are 5 scum in this game.

Also, I can't discredit something that has no credit at all. That post reveals absolutely nothing about anything at all. Whoever disagrees, show me logic, and not the bullshit I've seen so far. "Amen, Parama, Amén Parama"-style is not townish, just because Parama was pseudo-conftown on D1.

Yeah, I remember that. What happened to everyone saying "Parama is absolutely town" like in D1? I was the first one to question that, but there wasn't a single comment on my statement. Now, everyone talks about Parama's possible scumbuddies and so on.

@bobsnox: don't do that. I mean, if you reasoned it, it would be sort of OK.

[malpascp]

I asked both things guys. Question not reversed: I made it and added another one.

@Toasty: people can suspect whoever they want.

Either way, it's cool to see another "reversed question" answered. Is Toasty agreeing with Parama?

[malpascp]

What Parama's statement? He can make all the connections to the townslip he wants, but I really think it is null-tell. Maybe all this crap was only intended to sink Toasty's image, by associating him to Parama, that is already alive. But after all, everyone agreeded Parama, what works well for Parama anyway.

[malpascp]

I meant that Toasty is agreeing with Parama about his own towntell.

[malpascp]

I wouldn't say "yeah, I didn't know the win-cons, so I must be town". That only makes it even WIFOMier

[malpascp]

Also, I can't discredit something that has no credit at all.

Err,

false.

A case which has no credit whatsoever should be simplicity itself to refute. I'll even simplify it for you and restrict what you have to address to the quoted section of #541, below:

However, what makes

zero

sense from a [Parama/ToastyToast] scumpartners perspective is the townslip post.

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

Do the math. For this to be scum:

1. Toasty would have to realize that this was a confusion that a town player could have (especially unlikely if he's partners with Par, who was alive to make it one-and-one).
2. Toasty would have to make plans to express this confusion in some context.
3. Toasty would have to see #284 and realize that it was a perfect opportunity to unleash it.

That doesn't seem plausible to me. The post doesn't even read like a fake-misunderstanding post; there's too little brains in it.

Explain why I should either (a) consider the sequence of events I described reasonably probable or (b) consider some other sequence of events equally compatible with the text posted probable.

@Packbat: the problem is that I don't agree with the last sentence you quoted. WIFOM is not allways a problem to me, but this is way to WIFOMy, and it's the basis of all your argument. It loses it's sense if you consider that Toasty's "townslip" can be a fake.
I will ignore the "townslip" itself, but not the comments that derivate from it.

[malpascp]

line 1: "way too WIFOMy"

yes, I am Portuguese

btw, my nickname should be malpaSCP for spelling issues. I think that turns it more simple.

[malpascp]

ALSO there is the possibility of scumToasty didn't know the wincon as well. Darn it. WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM.

[malpascp]

Ok. I thought you would comment more than a word, but that's fine I guess. At least I'm not getting completely ignored.

[malpascp]

Lolz Parama

that's WIFOM too.

they could have arranjed that the partner would "notice" the slip on Day 2, that the parter would "notice" it Day 3, or that he wouldn't "notice" it at all. You "not understanding" this disapoints me.

[malpascp]

@Packbat: that discussion is made on almost every games on D1. There would certainlybe an opportunity to "slip".

[malpascp]

It's impossible to fake a slip, and Toasty' didn't fake it. Also yes it is a slip.

and instead of saying "your missing the point" countless times, tell me what im "missing" so i stop "missing" it.

Um, I keep doing that, and you keep missing the point. I mean, wow. WOOOOOOSHfest 2011.

they could have arranjed that the partner would "notice" the slip on Day 2, that the parter would "notice" it Day 3, or that he wouldn't "notice" it at all. You "not understanding" this disapoints me.

Now tell me the motivation for waiting this far into day to "notice" something like that.
*crickets*

It's impossible to fake a slip?! WTF? Did you even read my posts?

The motivation to wait a bit longer before "noticing" the "slip": to make it more credible. The sooner the "slip" was "noticed", the lower were the odds that a decent amount of people bought it, because of the "scumbuddie would "notice" imediately"-argument.

[malpascp]

@Packbat: I thought you said you were going to think about it. What conclusion did you reach?

[malpascp]

@kiwi: are you preparing a claim? Lulz

I think Toasty's revival is way to risky compared with other available revivals. There is no good reasoning at all (I told you I was going to ignore the "slip")

I will be V/LA until Friday.

It would be cool to get here at the end of the week and don't see "Scum wins" on the title.

[malpascp]

No NK? That sounds weird...

Also I didn't get if the SC's ineligibility is due to some PR or what. I guess I will re-read carefully the Rules.

[malpascp]

Cut of the conspiracy. Let's revive Bub, win this, and you get to conspiracy-vote who you want next

day

game.

[malpascp]

Okay...

1st of all: Toasty you bastard

2nd: I'm going to do what we should have done day 0

Vote:Bub

[malpascp]

Just noticed Parama died.

Well... Pom is obvscum right?

[malpascp]

What the...?

*why* AntB? WHY?

[malpascp]

Bah

My guess is that there are 2 scum alive. I just *feel* scum choose not to kill N2. That and Pom being obvscum to me.

My vote is for Bub today. If we revived him already, this shit wouldn't be happening.

@malpascp: explanation on what just happened?

@pom/toast (yes here comes another conspiracy theory):
if the scum-play here is to 'quickhammer' a tie and win on first-come-first-serve
why didn`t they steal your vote instead (outrunning crypto is a lot easier than outrunning you two)

I don't *know* what just happened.

Plus, I would say that's the scum team, unless the scum team is 3 players.

Why don't you reveal us a bit more of your theory?

@Everyone: implications on the "vote bridge" thing?

[malpascp]

That's right...

Unless scum can kill someone on limbo. Also, kiwieagle was modkilled, so we won't fulfill the "all town revived" anymore.

[malpascp]

The inegibility thing was already claimed...

[malpascp]

Waiting for Toasty to make an usefull vote (or Pack to move his) and waiting for IG to post something usefull.

Pre-EDIT:

@Toasty: who do you trust?

[malpascp]

I don't think there are any more roles around there, that's why I think a massclaim would be useless to town. But maybe Toasty already knes this...

[malpascp]

Ok, I need to ask you this: what conclusion do you get if everyone claims VT?

[malpascp]

Wait a minute: only living people can make night actions right?

[malpascp]

I was noticing the oddness of having 2 PRs revived so far...

[malpascp]

Pack's claim is inconfirmable. If he is scum, he doesn't get killed (kinda obv). If he is town, scum won't hit him from now on. Maybe that's his plan, but OK

PreEDIT: why wasn't there a N1 kill?

[malpascp]

Lol in normal games scum have also to outnumber town. Don't scratch it.

[malpascp]

Normal game: 2v2, scum wins
Reverse: 2v2, scum wins

[malpascp]

The same way scum is forced to revive scum here, in a normal scum is forced to lynch a townie.

[malpascp]

Townie

[malpascp]

@Trow:

-I didn't make the vote switch.

-My guess is that I got Crypto's vote because who targeted me wanted that one vote to be usefull. Not sure what side it would balance, but this and any other conclusions are pure WIFOM.

-I "saw" that noone died and my vote thingy and I voted Bub. Later I realized that Parama was dead and my vote still fited the situation.

-Pom is not that obv-scum anymore. I thought so, but all this night actions stuff made me think. Noone here is obv anything right now.

[malpascp]

Sorry everyone, I'm on the hospital right now. I will reread and post my thoughts, but probabilly only tomorrow.

[malpascp]

I think it must exist a real town PR other than pseudo-1-shot-bulletproof, the ineligibility thing and the pseudo-kill. None of them is very usefull, so I guess that there is a real PR out there. We should assume that the person who holds it decided not to claim. Our plans for the day should stick to that basis.

[malpascp]

We don't know his role. There are reasons why town fakeclaims.

IF (only if) we agree that the current setup is way too unbalanced, we must assume that there is someone that is fakeclaiming town.

[malpascp]

This game has special *unpredictable* roles. We never know for sure.

[malpascp]

@Mod

: IG is not voting Bub, I am

Well, I did forget to italicise it, but technically, it's his vote you're using. -Mod

[malpascp]

Bub's not scum. (I forgot the fact that IceGuy replaced Crypto, dumb me)

[malpascp]

Scum hopping for WIFOM around my previous townread on Bub?

Besides the obvious WIFOM of Pom making the vote switch. If scum could let the kill unused, it is more than likely that they could do the same with the vote-switch thing.

[malpascp]

If Pom is not scum, then someone else alive is (obv)
If scum was alive in a kill-less night, that means that they didn't want to kill (kinda obv)
The most likely reason to scum to no-kill would be to "show" us that everyone alive was town. (obv)
If scum would waste a kill just to try do convince us that everyone alive was town, then they would have no problem with doing the same thing about the vote-switch thing. (also obv)

Any flaw on that line of thought? If you assume the first sentence as veridic (and that was already done by various people here), then you MUST assume that the last one is also true.
In that case, scum could give me the vote so I would think "wait, I always pushed for Bub's revival, so if I got Crypto's/IG's vote, then it's because scum wants me to vote for Bub" (WIFOM).

[malpascp]

I don't see any unanswered questions directed to me...
I'm NOT going to revive bobsnox.

And I'll be V/LA for one week starting today.

[malpascp]

I'm not an idiot. Bub is defenitivelly town.

[malpascp]

Maybe because she isn't -.-

[malpascp]

The game is not balanced, but it wasn't that simple to just revive the vote-switcher out of 12 players. We got some luck on getting Pom revived, that defenitivelly won us the game. But if Bub got revived instead it would be a lot funnier to watch.

GG everyone.