Mini 1194: Reverse Mafia [Game Over]

[Packbat]

I think everyone I know in the playerlist is already in Parama's post; I don't see any place in which I would trust my judgment over his except (obviously) with respect to himself - I'm willing to believe he's pretty good as town, but I don't know him well enough to know if he can be caught easily as scum.

For now: VOTE: StrangerCoug

[Packbat]

I haven't read Toasty's games, and I don't see the anti-town either. And quite frankly, I find the speed at which the Par-wagon built ... worrying. For now, Parama, StrangerCoug, and Awesoma are my top three scumspects (ugly wagon, ugly self-vote, and ugly Par-vote, respectively), so:

UNVOTE: StrangerCoug
VOTE: Slaxx

(Slaxx is pretty well conftown; his power is unfakeable.)

[Packbat]

Haha, he's calling the top two wagons scum and voting the confirmed town.
Obviously, Packbat's actively scumhunting.

You aren't worried when you see a wagon hit L-2 on page 2?

[Packbat]

Haha, he's calling the top two wagons scum and voting the confirmed town.
Obviously, Packbat's actively scumhunting.

You aren't worried when you see a wagon hit L-2 on page 2?

Not when the wagon's on confirmed town.

You mean, "not when the wagon's on myself", right? You're not

conf

town, whatever reads people have. And given that we basically

start

at LyLo, I find your lack of paranoia disturbing.

[Packbat]

For now, Parama, StrangerCoug, and Awesoma are my top three scumspects (ugly wagon, ugly self-vote, and ugly Par-vote, respectively)

Explain how our actions are "ugly".

If I had a good explanation, I wouldn't say "ugly" - what I have is gut feelings:

1. There's nothing ugly about Parama's actions; it's the votes on the Par-wagon - particularly Awesoma's at #30 - which bother me. Too many, too quick, too little dissent. It feels like town saying, "He sounds good, all right" and scum saying, "sweet, town is letting us get away with it!" Could be completely an illusion, obviously, but L-2 this early makes me worry.

2. You vote for Parama, for reasonable reasons ... then jump off Parama rapidly to vote for yourself at #13, invoking your five-game losing streak as scum ending with Color Concentration. Well, I was in Color Concentration, as you may recall, and you lost there because your partner self-destructed. Also: #27, "while my self-vote is admittedly a bit WIFOM-based"? Scummish.

(I'm a bit biased because of Slaxx #23, unfortunately; it felt like scum protecting a scumbuddy-townie pair in Parama/StrangerCoug, but given Slaxx is conftown that's impossible.)

3. Awesoma's case starts at #16, with the very weirdly-phrased remark about "fair" voting, and continues into the weird disjointed premature-L-2 #30. Awesoma, is English your first language?

[Packbat]

Vote: Parama.

Any reasoning with that?

[Packbat]

Which, I may add,

is L-1 on Parama

?

[Packbat]

L-2 on Slaxx.

[Packbat]

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

Thoughts?

[Packbat]

crypto is being cryptic. I'd be amused if I weren't more interested in trying to win, and therefore desirous of the information he's being so cagey with.

I have no objections to being revived after we have real participation from the rest of the playerlist; at present, among those who are active and candidates I like ToastyToast and Bub Bidderskins, the latter over the former:

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

...and at present I am specifically looking for more posting from crypto, Pomegranate, and wredfar before we start narrowing the field to a single revival candidate.

[Packbat]

Also, wred

or

crypto can be scum, but not wred

and

crypto. Crypto's totally unbacked accusastion against wred makes sure of that.

That's a bit of a WIFOM situation, actually - it would be incredibly brazen, with a significant risk of backfire, but I could imagine scum pulling that as a gambit.

[Packbat]

Everything in this game is WIFOM then from that point of view. See, now I could say "Packbat showing concern of that pair means I will have to look into him if one is scum".

That actually sounds about right from a game-theory perspective - the probability of my saying that given {Packbat scum & exactly one of crypto/wredfar scum} is higher than the probability given {Packbat, crypto, and wredfar all scum} or {Packbat scum, crypto & wredfar town}, and comparable to the probability given {Packbat town}.

I'm not using WIFOM as a buzzword, I promise - this actually reads to me as a simple enough gambit that I would not be surprised to see it happen. I saw someone I thought was a VI counterclaim his scumpartner in a newbie game; this is no more risky.

[Packbat]

Also: what crypto has done is attack wredfar in the most unconvincing way possible. Assuming they were both scum, that would be textbook distancing.

[Packbat]

FYI: wredfar was prodded a couple of days ago in accordance with my "courtesy prod anyone who hadn't posted in the first two days" post earlier. He has not yet picked up the prod, so I'll probably be replacing him soon.

I checked his profile; for whatever reason, he hasn't been on since 3 p.m. on the 25th. Which means he's (probably) not blowing off this game specifically, at least; he's just AWOL.

[Packbat]

Informal vote count of informality!

Packbat - 4 (ToastyToast, Slaxx, StrangerCoug, AntB) L-3
Bub Bidderskins - 2 (Packbat, Pomegranate) L-5

Not voting: Parama, bobsnox, crypto, kiwieagle, Bub Bidderskins, wredfar, Awesoma.

[Packbat]

Mod: am I correct in calculating the deadline as shortly before 3 p.m. EDT on July 10th?

[Packbat]

@Mod: During Day 1, can players in limbo talk?

The rules on the Wiki appear to allow it:

In the morning, Day 1 begins. All players may again speak, and again the aim is to revive a player, but now only living players may vote. At the end of the day a player will be made living and Night 2 begins.

...but confirmation would certainly be welcome.

[Packbat]

That's L-2 on me - unless we really start running into deadline issues, I want to meet wredfar's replacement before we go on to Day 1. Voting behavior is much more revealing than voteless behavior.

[Packbat]

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins
Thoughts?

Thoughts:
1. Why didn't you vote me?
2. Why did you vote Bub?
3. Why did you ask for others' opinions on your particular vote?

1. Concern about the speed of the wagon. Your posting has been pretty pro-town, which rather relieves my mind, but seeing as you have been elected already that's rather irrelevant.

2. He's a townread, active and involved, sounds like he'd be a good town player from your description of his meta, and he hadn't attracted a lot of attention as a candidate.

3. I wanted to get people talking.

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

...and at present I am specifically looking for more posting from crypto, Pomegranate, and wredfar before we start narrowing the field to a single revival candidate.

If you don't want to narrow the field to a single revival candidate yet, why are you voting? Your post is saying: "This is who I think should be our single revival candidate, but we shouldn't pick a single revival candidate yet."

That's not how I usually interpret it - a vote is a stronger expression of opinion than just a voice, but I am willing to move my vote around even in regular Mafia games.

Also, wred

or

crypto can be scum, but not wred

and

crypto. Crypto's totally unbacked accusastion against wred makes sure of that.

That's a bit of a WIFOM situation, actually - it would be incredibly brazen, with a significant risk of backfire, but I could imagine scum pulling that as a gambit.

Yay, let's throw in random doubt based on WIFOM.

Bub Bidderskins made an absolute statement which seems to be unjustified. Are you saying Bub is correct? Why? And if not, what objection do you have to my pointing out his error?

Also: what crypto has done is attack wredfar in the most unconvincing way possible. Assuming they were both scum, that would be textbook distancing.

The way crypto's posting will make it unlikely that he gets revived soon. Mafia want to get revived ASAP.
I don't see how his posting reads as anything other than town.
Remember that distancing doesn't mean crap in a game where you can't lynch scum. Hell, we can't flip them without a vig. We only get townflips if vigless, and scum control most of those. What good is distancing, then?

What is your explanation for his behavior, then? I can see no reason for it from a town perspective - the data is simply not there for him to analyze, because wredfar

has not existed.

Just because behavior is stupid for scum doesn't make it a towntell. Why is crypto town?

(Incidentally, does anyone else notice how quickly the votes fled from Packbat the moment Parama expressed suspicion? I would not be surprised if ToastyToast, StrangerCoug or both were scum seeking towncred, even if I weren't suspicious of SC already.)

Just because kiwi is town doesnt mean we want to revive him. No offense but there are more competent players I am trying to decide on right now. I'm feeling ballsy and am about ready to send in my revive on Toasty. You guys have half an hour to comment on it before I do it.

Slaxx.
Wait until Day 1.
Please.

Quoted for agreement.

Oh, and kiwieagle: don't write your responses inside the quotes. It makes your posts way harder to parse.

[Packbat]

Seeking towncred....If you were scum it would be town cred getting off your wagon.

Whether I'm scum or not has no bearing on whether scum would gain town cred for leaving my wagon. Scum gain town cred for actions which

town

likes, so if the scum thinks

town

thinks I'm scum, that's enough.

[Packbat]

What is your explanation for his behavior, then? I can see no reason for it from a town perspective - the data is simply not there for him to analyze, because wredfar

has not existed.

Just because behavior is stupid for scum doesn't make it a towntell. Why is crypto town?

I never said I agreed with him.
I said that his posting makes no sense from a scum perspective, because it almost guarantees that he's not getting revived in the near future, and it almost seems like that's what he's going for. Which implies some weird third party role (unlikely) or that he's town (most likely).

It doesn't

matter

if it makes

sense

or not - it matters whether it is plausible that a player in a given role would act this way. Yes, it is ridiculous that scum would behave this way. But it is ridiculous that

town

would behave this way, and there exists a thought process - however ill-advised - which would explain the player's exact behavior from a scum perspective. What thought process would make a

town player

declare unilaterally that a player who

never posted

- never even

logged on

- must be scum?

(Incidentally, does anyone else notice how quickly the votes fled from Packbat the moment Parama expressed suspicion? I would not be surprised if ToastyToast, StrangerCoug or both were scum seeking towncred, even if I weren't suspicious of SC already.)

Or maybe I made valid points and people realized that Packbat was in fact scum and stopped trying to revive him as they rightfully should've.

Your 'valid points' consist of (a) disagreeing with my evaluation of a game theory question and (b) interpreting my L-2 notice as an announcement that I am a guaranteed revival. Neither of these is remotely indicative of alignment.

[Packbat]

(a) Hi, malpascp!

(b) ToastyToast unvoted at #188.

Whoops, I read "Unvote: Packbat" as "Packbat unvotes". Will correct. -Mod

[Packbat]

I am so glad I can effectively replace out at any time without the actual stigma of replacing out.

Err, what?

[Packbat]

Oh, right.

[Packbat]

Hello ppls

I'm "ketchuping" the thread, will post decent stuff today.

I'm having total

A Boy and His Blob

flashbacks from that pun - that was a fun NES game. Let us know when you're caught up.

[Packbat]

Also:

Happy Birthday Packbat!

Thank you!

(I had a very good birthday, which is why I'm posting at 1:40 in the morning of the next day tired as ... something. I'll be back in the morning.)

[Packbat]

Well, if there's no more support available for Bud Bidderskins, I'm willing to vote my second candidate:

UNVOTE: Bud Bidderskins
VOTE: Packbat

[Packbat]

Well, if there's no more support available for Bud Bidderskins, I'm willing to vote my second candidate:

UNVOTE: Bud Bidderskins
VOTE: Packbat

What do you mean you are your second candidate? You should always be your own first candidate because you alone are 100% confirmed town from your perspective.

There are three criteria to be considered when selecting a candidate:

1. Your assessment of their towniness.
2. Your assessment of their townhunting abilities.
3. Your assessment of their electability.

You're right that by the first I would be the best candidate, but your reputation on the second criterion is good, and - due to the obvious conflict of interest - I would be much more able to argue for your election than my own.

I still think the calculus probably favors you, but I thought I'd shift my vote and see if I was wrong. I can still shift it back.

[Packbat]

I don't think ToastyToast's random-vote is particularly indicative of alignment - I had an early townread on him for other reasons, but he's kinda null for me at the moment.

[Packbat]

Not to mention that

if

Parama is scum, ToastyToast is high on the list of candidates for Par's partner.

[Packbat]

Also SC's vote on kiwi and his justification on #245. He appears to be informed about the information that was given to mafia, and that worries me. Also kiwi didn't say a word about SC's vote.

Wow, looking at StrangerCoug's ISO, that vote looks even worse than it did before - he was insisting that kiwieagle looked scummy right up until someone said, "scum claiming VT is risky", and then did

a complete 180

. Simple WIFOM considerations ought to prevent you from reversing your read that completely based on a single datum, and he never offers any other justification for his change of mind.

[Packbat]

Oh man, bobsnox is scum, isn't he?

Can you elaborate on that?

[Packbat]

prodvoid

FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!

We have less than a week, we

need

to finish the setup so we can go.

[Packbat]

What am I thinking? Finish

selecting

.

Right now, if either myself or Bub Bidderskins is at L-1 without me, I will hammer, and I will not hammer crypto, StrangerCoug, or kiwieagle. Outside that I'm open to negotiations.

[Packbat]

What the fuck?

What?

Seriously, Slaxx, that's the stupidest gambit I've seen in the history of

anything

- in what world did you think that had a chance of working? What was it even supposed to accomplish? In what world would you get a useful scumtell out of that?

[Packbat]

I was looking for a towntell in Toasty.

Don't call my play stupid.

It's possible that it appeared to be clever to you based on the information you had - but that doesn't make it

not stupid

.

[Packbat]

*sighs*

My list is unchanged as far as who I would like to revive, so...?

[Packbat]

Mod: if the scum comprise the majority of the town at some point

before

Day 1, do they win?

I'd imagine they don't.

[Packbat]

...I forgot that Slaxx was about to be conftown. That clarifies his gg-gambit quite a bit - the risk from it is almost nullified, in fact.

As for crypto-revive: I don't like it because I can't read him, but I don't know anything which would put him on the

scummy

side of the fence as opposed to just null. I have no recollection of anything tying him to Parama, either, so we're probably in the clear for now even if he is scum. I think it would be best to treat this as LyLo anyway, just for paranoia's sake, unless there's no kill on Night 2.

[Packbat]

Bub Bidderskins is still nice - and I'm a little curious about Pomegranate as well. Pom

hasn't

posted enough (I saw something about a summer job in the ISO) but what is there is tolerably good.

[Packbat]

So crypto's town. Sexy.

No voting yet please. If you vote scum Packbat will just quickhammer and scum win. It's basically LyLo today and we just have to revive town for successing.

Par is half wrong. He has no good reason to think I'm scum ... but none of us have sufficient reason to be certain

either

surviving voter is town. That's one of the reasons why I've been an advocate for Bub Bidderskins - it seems unlikely that he's partners with Parama.

[Packbat]

("Either" as in "you know your own role, so if you're town you're uncertain about two people".)

[Packbat]

crypto's town.
you're scum.
these things I determined on Day 0.75.
Don't even try to deny it.

For crypto's benefit, then, explain your reasoning. Because as far as I can tell it consists of "Slaxx is scum with him".

[Packbat]

Ah, right, I see - I'm scum because I didn't like the Parama or StrangerCoug wagons on Page Three, and because you've never been forced to decide otherwise. So I had the timing wrong, but not the lack of merit. Woo.

Anyway, who are your revival candidates, Par? You control one of three votes, your opinions carry a lot of sway.

[Packbat]

OK, the living players mess with my reads. If I understand this right, crypto and Packbat can't both be scum or the game would be over, but if they're both town I am going to jump off the Empire State Building. I'm more inclined to accept that crypto is simply having difficulties townhunting, which condemns Packbat at the moment.

Why can't we both be town, exactly? I don't see any jump-off-a-building strong motivation for excluding the

possibility

.

[Packbat]

I can see you think both crypto and myself are scummy (although: why am I scummy now? Seems like an awfully fast change of opinion) but your phrasing makes it sound like you have some strong reason for us not to be town together, rather than

just

suspicion of both of us.

[Packbat]

Ah, so you have nothing of value to contribute to the conversation. Much appreciated.

crypto, my question for Parama goes for you, too: what are your strongest reads right now?

Mod: where is Awesoma? She's supposed to be back from V/LA since the fourth. And supposed to be posting during V/LA.

[Packbat]

Off-topic: happy birthday, crypto!

[Packbat]

(p.s. is that Michael Kitchen playing Foyle from "Foyle's War" in your avatar?)

[Packbat]

crypto, my question for Parama goes for you, too: what are your strongest reads right now?

I'll post them after my reread. Why didn't you restate this question after I made post 363?

You said you were rereading - I figured your reread-reads would be better than your preread-reads, so I thought I'd let you get on with it.

[Packbat]

Ah, so you have nothing of value to contribute to the conversation. Much appreciated.

Why do my stated reads of the people other than you two have nothing of value?

Ah - poor phrasing on my part. As you correctly have pointed out, it is only with respect to

crypto and I

that you are failing to contribute new analysis. It was that conversation within the larger thread to which I was alluding.

[Packbat]

Even though multiple people said they would make their decision after a vote count?

Yes. I wasn't fond of the Packbat wagon and kiwieagle did not announce an intention to wait until such a point. kiwieagle's vote is the only point at which he states whether he prefers Packbat or kiwieagle.

This is actually a good point for why I dislike Pomegranate right now—if multiple people said they'd decide after seeing a vote count, why have I been singled out?

Who are these "multiple people", ToastyToast/StrangerCoug?

[Packbat]

EBWOP: Who said that they were waiting for a votecount to vote, that is.

[Packbat]

SC explicitly said it, AntB said he would go to the Bub wagon, and my vote immediately after the vote count should be enough to assume I was waiting for the vote count as well.

I would not have made such an assumption about your vote, although I suppose it is a reasonable one - AntB I would rule was doing the same as I was and declaring his willingness to compromise to guarantee a revival.

[Packbat]

But, more relevantly:

Disappointed in the Packbat revival, but oh well. We have two solid town breathing.

So why weren't you voting someone you found better?

Also, that was kinda stupid, Slaxx.

...Pomegranate was not criticizing

waiting for the votecount

, but

waiting for the votecount in a situation where there was an obvious leading candidate who was considered poor

. Even if I don't endorse Pom's objection, she's not applying a double standard.

[Packbat]

crypto is being cryptic. I'd be amused if I weren't more interested in trying to win, and therefore desirous of the information he's being so cagey with.

whatthefuckisthisshit
maybeparamasright

By my count, you had posted precisely thirty-two words up to that point, including votes and unvotes; in terms of reads, you had posted

three

. And those three were "Wredfar is mafia." And wredfar was replaced by malpascp, who you just expressed desire to revive.

You understand where I'm coming from, here?

I can keep mucking up the thread with my chained posts if you guys would like.

I usually prefer a single or a few summary posts after a reread.

[Packbat]

Your rhetoric felt forced.

Well, I didn't want to lose the pun.

What does my read changing after the fact have to do with it?

It indicates that you weren't certain, despite the fact that you phrased it as an absolute statement. So, your wording was a bit deceptive. Cryptic, one might claim.

[Packbat]

I think both Packbat and Crypto are town. That's it. We should move to today's revival, not the living guys. If someone dies tonight, we will know if we have living scum or not. Anyway, Bub is our best shot.

Based on what Ive gathered from the posts I missed during my vacation, I agree with this.

(Anyway, In relation to my vacation, My Verizon portable modem flubbed out. Ever since the 4th i've been in the middle of an ISP switch also.)

Oh, wow, that sucks - hope it's getting straightened out all right? Well enough that you can start playing more actively?

[Packbat]

Sorry been V/LA

I should probably be revived soon. I am a One-Shot Town Purger. I can kill a dude in limbo but not living players.

Mod: How does this interact with the town wincon?

[Packbat]

Frankly it should only be used to kill off a confirmed scum in Limbo; not much use for it otherwise.

Well, obviously. I just want to know if it's an insta-lose for town if aimed wrong.

[Packbat]

Mod: How does this interact with the town wincon?

I can't answer this question for you.

Fair enough.

Frankly it should only be used to kill off a confirmed scum in Limbo; not much use for it otherwise.

Well, obviously. I just want to know if it's an insta-lose for town if aimed wrong.

Where did you even get that idea from?

This continues until either side's win condition is fulfilled, and they are:

Mafia: More living mafia than living town players. Town: Either: all of the pro-town players revived (it is not required that all pro-town players survive after being revived though), half of the total pro-town players alive, or all mafia dead.

If bobsnox used an NK to annihilate a pro-town role, the former mode of victory would become impossible because that player could no longer be revived. Such a result would tend to make the role essentially suicidal for town, unbalancing the game to a dangerous degree. (For that matter, so would the opposite: being able to kill a player to gain a risk-free revive+death.)

Now, what do I think when I see a player claim a role which does not make sense? That it could be a fakeclaim. This would be possible

only

if one of the living players was scum, but one of them could be, and a claim sufficiently convincing to attract

just one

revival vote from a town player would, in that case, lose the game.

(P.S. There's actually a second reason for postponing any bobsnox revival - that he has a bullseye painted on his forehead if he

is

town. We would want to wait until we have a confscum in limbo even if we did believe him.)

[Packbat]

Ok. I figured I'd claim so we could discuss it. I'm good with waiting.

But if I am revived and there's not a Mafia RB alive, my shot would at least go off. I might die too, but 1 for 1 isn't a bad deal at this stage.

Only if you hit scum. 0 for 2 is a bad deal at every stage.

[Packbat]

(Yes this is very WIFOM)

Speculative. WIFOM ≠ speculative.[/pedant]

[Packbat]

I'm still okay with Bub Bidderskins - anyone have reason to object?

[Packbat]

...that's odd - crypto hasn't posted for two days. crypto, do you have anything to add?

[Packbat]

Can I have a top town read besides kiwieagle out of everybody and why?

Bub because no one else is even trying/is scummy

This.

/is null, but yes.

[Packbat]

That is: not trying/scummy/null.

[Packbat]

I don't agree with the case against him.

It's not

just

a matter of whether bobsnox is scummy or not, however - we have to make sure we revive people who would be beneficial to town. And because he has claimed, we have to wait on reviving bobsnox until we have the nearest thing to mod-confirmed scum in limbo for him to take a pot-shot at. Otherwise, we run into two issues:

1. If any mafia is in the game, they will kill him.

2. If he shoots and hits town, we (probably) lose.

Right now there is near zero benefit to taking him out of limbo, and far too much risk.

[Packbat]

Mod: can you prod malpascp?

[Packbat]

Okay: everyone who has an objection to my placing a vote on Bub Bidderskins, speak now.

[Packbat]

Proddodge. Nothing to say.

Are you even

reading

the game?

[Packbat]

Sorta. I can't really do anything and it's not even smart to revive me yet. So I'm basically deadweight at the moment.

I think that actually cinches it for me. He's given up, and I can't see any reason for him to do so except his being scum.

[Packbat]

I thought I said I was good with Bub earlier?

Are you talking about #239? I asked because I wanted people's

current

opinions.

Speaking of which - StrangerCoug: thoughts on Bub Bidderskins? Any objections to my placing a vote on him?

[Packbat]

Right, forgot.

[Packbat]

Okay, then as far as Bub we have:

• Parama, no opinion.
  
• bobsnox, approval.
  
• crypto, no opinion.
  
• Packbat, approval.
  
• Pomegranate, approval.
  
• ToastyToast, approval.
  
• kiwieagle, no opinion.
  
• Bub Bidderskins, (presumably) approval.
  
• AntB, no opinion.
  
• malpascp, no opinion.
  
• StrangerCoug, approval.
  
• Awesoma, being replaced.

I'll lay a vote tonight for Bub if I don't hear an objection.

[Packbat]

Packbat, why not malpascp?

I don't have a good read on him. He's not

bad

, looking him over in ISO, but I prefer Pomegranate of the Bub-alternatives.

[Packbat]

Okay, we'll make something happen.

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

I think he's a reasonable candidate, despite kiwieagle's reservations, and he doesn't seem a likely partner of either Parama or crypto anyway.

[Packbat]

Let us know what you find, Parama.

[Packbat]

I wouldn't, if I were the mod - that's an easy way to accidentally create a mod-confirmed fakeclaim, and that's not what the game is about.

[Packbat]

Anyways, Toasty townslipped. That should be our revive today. I'm actually surprised nobody caught it, so I'll explain it:

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

What the slip is:
Toasty doesn't understand the scum win-condition correctly. I see no way in hell scum wouldn't know their own wincon, and he completely botched it here, unless I'm misreading something, which seems unlikely. Even then, Toasty gives off lots of townie vibes in recent posting; I stopped keeping track of him after his townslip though.

That sounds really plausible. I hadn't thought that angle through, but if you're right, we absolutely must revive ToastyToast today.

UNVOTE: Bub Bidderskins

I'm not going to hammer Toast without thinking it over, but the possibility of having a 4-player conftown team is too good to resist.

[Packbat]

[...] I dislike everyone suddenly seeing Toasty as near conf-town.

@Everyone: any thoughts on connections between Toasty and anyone else alive?

Toasty-Parama is possible based on ToastyToast's early play - his ISO has him expressing hesitance to vote for Par followed by an L-1 with very little explanation, which would be a natural pattern for scumpartners. That would also be supported by the way that Parama and Toasty staked out opposite positions on

my

revival Day 0.75, although Toast's retreat after Par's initial objection doesn't fit.

However, what makes

zero

sense from a scumpartners perspective is the townslip post.

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

Do the math. For this to be scum:

1. Toasty would have to realize that this was a confusion that a town player could have (especially unlikely if he's partners with Par, who was alive to make it one-and-one).
2. Toasty would have to make plans to express this confusion in some context.
3. Toasty would have to see #284 and realize that it was a perfect opportunity to unleash it.

That doesn't seem plausible to me. The post doesn't even read like a fake-misunderstanding post; there's too little brains in it.

[Packbat]

No, but you just claimed that you don't give a damn about who's revived as long as they're not the PR that's (according to my theory) the most dangerous to scum.

Bobsnox is a double edged sword.

At best.

[Packbat]

Mod: can we get another prod on crypto?

[Packbat]

Also, I can't discredit something that has no credit at all.

Err,

false.

A case which has no credit whatsoever should be simplicity itself to refute. I'll even simplify it for you and restrict what you have to address to the quoted section of #541, below:

However, what makes

zero

sense from a [Parama/ToastyToast] scumpartners perspective is the townslip post.

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

Do the math. For this to be scum:

1. Toasty would have to realize that this was a confusion that a town player could have (especially unlikely if he's partners with Par, who was alive to make it one-and-one).
2. Toasty would have to make plans to express this confusion in some context.
3. Toasty would have to see #284 and realize that it was a perfect opportunity to unleash it.

That doesn't seem plausible to me. The post doesn't even read like a fake-misunderstanding post; there's too little brains in it.

Explain why I should either (a) consider the sequence of events I described reasonably probable or (b) consider some other sequence of events equally compatible with the text posted probable.

[Packbat]

@Packbat: the problem is that I don't agree with the last sentence you quoted. WIFOM is not allways a problem to me, but this is way to WIFOMy, and it's the basis of all your argument. It loses it's sense if you consider that Toasty's "townslip" can be a fake.
I will ignore the "townslip" itself, but not the comments that derivate from it.

"Can be" =/= "is likely to be". Which is more probable: that a town!ToastyToast would misunderstand the scum victory condition, or that a scum!ToastyToast would fake that particular misunderstanding of the scum victory condition? I think the former is much more so than the latter, and that makes it a townslip. You have given me

no reason

to think that the latter is even comparably probable to the former.

What reason do you have

to suggest that it is?

[Packbat]

ALSO there is the possibility of scumToasty didn't know the wincon as well. Darn it. WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM.

What probability do you give that scum!ToastyToast would misunderstand the scum wincon? Because I put it between "bup" and "kis" - negligible compared to town!Toasty making the same error. Particularly as a scum!Toasty with that misunderstanding should have been

freakishly

active D0.25 trying to get scum raised first.

[Packbat]

Strictly speaking, Parama/ToastyToast is not yet ruled out, but agreed - unless you have some good reason not to, go ahead and hammer ToastyToast.

[Packbat]

Parama, your basing your whole case on the slip?

Screw off, mafia scum.
Packbat, you can hammer Toasty yourself if you want to see him hammered, y'know...

Crypto has only just returned to the game - if he has something to say after analyzing the situation, I want to hear it.

If he doesn't, then yeah, I probably will.

[Packbat]

Plus, how was he supposed to fake that slip? It was performed in response to an action by Slaxx, who we know to be a town player.

[Packbat]

@Packbat: that discussion is made on almost every games on D1. There would certainlybe an opportunity to "slip".

That is a good point - let me think about that for a bit.

[Packbat]

Okay, I think I'm satisfied - I will hammer ToastyToast tomorrow unless there is some dramatic revelation which shows I shouldn't.

[Packbat]

I was going to give MrTrow another few hours.

[Packbat]

I want to reread the game to evaluate MrTrow's case against my own interpretation of events - but I'll say it right now: absent the slip, and for pretty much the reasons MrTrow alluded to, I had a scum feeling about ToastyToast. I won't be able to get on with it until tomorrow afternoon or evening EDT, but if #652 and #660 are consistent with the thread, I would consider TT's towniness in sufficient doubt - and sufficiently correlated with Parama's towniness - to justify voting for Bub Bidderskins instead.

[Packbat]

The 'slip' was probably not preorchestrated.

It however it`s motivations may not have been as it is made out to be.

Slaxx was considering to revive toasty, he throws in a little test to confirm: known to all of us as the gg-gambit.
Toasty did not provide the confirmation slaxx was looking for, not that weird considering the window was only 15-minutes.

This by itself should be sufficient, yet toasty thought more excuse was in order, which he provided: referred to by most here as the town-slip.
Which is (as far as i can think of) the only possible excuse for town not to believe slaxx.
This was clearly intended to restore his place as slaxx revive target (if there is any doubt about this, his " " pretty much confirms)

That's possible if he was scum - I don't think it's as probable as town making the error honestly, but it isn't in any way ludicrous.

Additional indication for this comes shortly after the bobsnox-claim.
Toasty tosses himself up as a 'safer powerrole' as an alternative, despite the fact a bobsnox-revival was already off the table.

He did - but that could be innocent. I guess reverse-mafia has to be a little odd about claiming.

The main problem with this seems to be parama`s "if so why did i point it out so late?".

I may inspect the remainder of this later if anyone is interested, but with Par's townslip (as mentioned above the horizontal rule) I think we have to scratch it as not being relevant.

Toast:

- situation RVS: SC was right on this one, Yes it is possible to vote random while others are discussing. It is however by no means helpfull.
- D0.75 vote pattern:
starts the packbat wagon
states bub is probably best to revive, unvotes packbat for it, but doesn`t vote bub

Not accurate. In the unvote-Pack post, #188, he quotes

me

saying that, but still lists Packbat over Bub Bidderskins:

73 is the first post that made me develop a town-read on Packbat. The way he reacted to the votes was also a town reaction. He acknowledged that he has no problems being revived today but still thinks Bub is the best choice for the day.

Enough ppl are against it to give me doubt, so

Unvote:Packbat

[...]

The one standout on ppl I'd be willing to revive today is Pomegranate, but she is still on the bottom of my town list and as such I prefer Packbat, Bub (even tho he pissed me off), or myself.

Reading the thread, it feels a lot like what I've been doing re: ToastyToast - waiting until I have all the data and a chance to think it through.

'still leaning packbat over bub'
later votes accordingly
- calls parama obv-town wherever possible (= a (although not the only) reason for above vote/read mismatch)

"wherever possible" is stretching it - I count once.

- is willing to revive bottom of his townlist (pom @ iso8)

Bottom of townlist is still townlist - not seeing the problem here.

- only calls SC out for 'anyone who ignores me or parama is scum' ,parama is no better (understatement) in that respect.
- Split the town in 2 groups on this matter and calls for a decision based on the entire group. 'someone who looks scummy agrees with you -> you must be scum'

Could you elaborate on these?

Parama:

Skipping most of this because:

One could argue he performed the towntell instead but no he did not.

Why do you say he didn't? Start at the gg gambit and you seem him go "I knew Pack was scum the whole time" #287/#292. That looks hella like a townslip to me.

I'ma vote ToastyToast. Everyone's countercase is "he's partners with Parama", and I can't buy that. If we exclude the 'townslip' entirely, what we have is a not-terrifically-involved but fairly towny player.

[Packbat]

EBWOP: Replace "above the horizontal rule" with "below", sorry.

[Packbat]

VOTE: ToastyToast

[Packbat]

Aaah! Par, you're giving me a heart attack!

[Packbat]

Where are those from, anyway?

[Packbat]

Helpful answer is helpful!

Eh, whatevs. Page me in the mornings.

[Packbat]

Fair enough.

[Packbat]

Wow - I'm

allergic

to kiwi and I'm not as enthusiastic as bobsnox to shoot kiwieagle.

[Packbat]

EBWOP:
Forgot to mention, but this was a huge success.

I'll make a note here, and try not to overstate your satisfaction.

I

did

want to mention, just for completeness sake, that

if

there were one scum in town they could still win after a no-kill as long as they revived scum today ... but I don't think that's the case. On which theme, as Toasty said yesterday:

So basically this is turning into Parama-TT-crypto-Bub-Pom-AntB vs. kiwi-malpascp-MrTrow-bobsnox, with SC and Packbat as swing votes
Tell me: which side is townier?

In my opinion, we should revive one of {Bub Bidderskins, Pomegranate, AntB} today. My own preferences fall in roughly that exact order, but I'm flexible - anyone have particular praises or objections to members on that list?

[Packbat]

However, an impenetrable aura surrounds

StrangerCoug

today. He is ineligible to be voted for today.

Damn it.

You were the logical choice, as the scummiest potential revive candidate.

[Packbat]

I had to swing votes away from Bub yesterday and I'm sure as hell going to make sure he doesn't get revived today either.
No offense Bub but my conspiracy theory is still a possibility so

vote: Pome

For those like me who are thinking, "What conspiracy theory?": it's from #536.

I really want to go to N1 with 4 town alive so we can have 4 confirmed town and basically an auto-won game from that point. If I'm right about everyone alive being town, then BUB SHOULD NOT BE REVIVED TODAY. If I'm wrong, BUB SHOULD NOT BE REVIVED TODAY. This is not his fault. It is almost 100% association, but Packbat's alignment has nothing to do with it at this point, and Packbat's alignment is the only one I'd call into question of the living players.

SC's posts seemed good at first, but I realized what game he's playing - he's trying to appeal to Pack's good side because he knows Pack's town and Bub's scum, and Pack is the most likely of the three living players to vote Bub. Lots of subtle stuff, but I think he's been getting what he wants and he knows it; the problem is that his attempts are just a bit too transparent.

Taking that under advisement, I'm down with Pom.

VOTE: Pomegranate

[Packbat]

That's L-1

, for the record.

[Packbat]

C'mon... c'mon... this is going where we want... c'mon...

Wow, it's like WIFOM only instead of wine we have WTF!

[Packbat]

(Or, to put it more explicitly: StrangerCoug is either town and enthusiastic about town being close to victory or scum and must be ignored completely.)

[Packbat]

SCUM TEAMZ ^^

I was pro-Pomegranate yesterday, kiwieagle - if Parama had shifted his vote he wouldn't have had much trouble making me follow. And in that situation he would only need one town vote on scum, not two.

[Packbat]

s/shifted his vote/voted Pom instead of ToastyToast/

Preview Edit: Not to mention Par's objections, obviously...

[Packbat]

SCUM TEAMZ ^^

I was pro-Pomegranate yesterday, kiwieagle - if Parama had shifted his vote he wouldn't have had much trouble making me follow. And in that situation he would only need one town vote on scum, not two.

But Parama would of looked suspicious because he had pointed out a "townslip" already?

I was pro-Pom

before I voted Bub

. Try again.

[Packbat]

(#489, if anyone was wondering.)

PreEd: If I knew ToastyToast was town, I'd think it a slip whether it was or not - confirmation bias.

(am on iPhone - apologies for terseness.)

[Packbat]

Or crypto, if crypto thinks Pomegranate is town.

[Packbat]

ugh.... my head is filled with mod wifom...


only living players can action at night, someone has prevented SC from being revived... x.x

And therefore ToastyToast or crypto is a town PR who can prevent one player from being revived for one day. That's a perfectly natural role in this setup.

[Packbat]

So why Pom over Bub? I like Bub better today

Is Pom less than 90%?

[Packbat]

The problem, ToastyToast, is that Parama isn't going to vote for Bub - so the only way we have a revive is if we can agree on someone else or if you, I, and crypto can agree on Bub. So unless you think Pomegranate isn't towny enough, it doesn't seem like a big problem to revive her instead of Bub.

[Packbat]

Fine with me. I'll just follow Par's lead, and post some music for everyone - but I'm going with more Jonathan Coulton rather than metal.

[Packbat]

The funny thing is: if we do win today, it'll make ten games in a row for me which are either (a) loss at LyLo or (b) perfect town victory.

[Packbat]

She doesn't seem genuine.

Examples?

[Packbat]

lol I'll just not shoot then

I'm still interested in seeing examples of Pomegranate being insincere.

[Packbat]

VOTE: AntB

ToastyToast, if the vote-link is a scum power the way I think it might be, we can't force a townie majority - only a townie

tie

. we're pro doomed anyway, but our best shot is to get a wagon on town to 2 ASAP, I think.

[Packbat]

/s/pro/prob/ - thank you, iPhone autocorrect...

[Packbat]

ToastyToast is Mr. Impenetrable Aura. I'm not Mr. Vote-Substitution. crypto had his vote substituted. Either someone has a limbo-power or Pomegranate has vote-shifting powers - and either crypto is scum or Pomegranate is scum. If Pom is scum, scum control two votes out of four, and town's hopes reside on whatever tie-breaking system ChannelDelibird should choose to employ.

And, obviously, if Pomegranate is scum the scumteam is Pomegranate/malpascp/Bub Bidderskins, because you came in right after day started and dropped a vote on Bub.

[Packbat]

I mean, I could vote StrangerCoug instead, but if Pom is

town

I'm not sure I'm comfortable with it.

[Packbat]

And I wanted to vote as hurriedly as possible.

[Packbat]

If there are only two scum, then they already lost - they have to revive someone every day, and that will eventually mean reviving all town. Game theory says we have to play as if we have three scum.

[Packbat]

The inegibility thing was already claimed...

Could you point me to this post? I must have missed it, and I can't find anything searching for "ineligible", "impenetrable" or "aura".

#767.

OK, so I haven't read yet but I'm claiming:
I am a Jinxer, which allows me to select one person who cannot be revived this day. This is what I meant by a safer alternative to outright killing someone, because it is temporary

I chose StrangerCoug because he was the scum-read of mine most likely to be revived today.

[Packbat]

I support the massclaim, and I'll claim right now: I'm a

Strong-Spirited Townie

- if I'm killed, I go back to limbo instead of to the graveyard. (If I'm revived and killed again, it sticks.)

List of Claims & Roles

1. Parama, Townie, killed Night 3

2. bobsnox: One-Shot Town Purger

3. Slaxx, Town Summoner, died Day 1

4. IceGuy

5. Packbat: Strong-Spirited Townie

6. Pomegranate

7. ToastyToast: Jinxer

8. kiwieagle, Townie, modkilled Day 2

9. Bub Bidderskins
10. AntB
11. malpascp
12. StrangerCoug
13. MrTrow

[Packbat]

Mkay, that is like 100% a town power. So that leaves the suspects to cryto/ice and pom.

...you know, strictly speaking, my power isn't confirmed unless I get killed.

Do you think crypto could have missed the night phase to send in a kill? I really would not be surprised.

His last post was on Day 1 - it's entirely possible.

[Packbat]

Three possibilities.

1. WIFOM. Scum hoped to revive scum and win D2.

2. All four living players were town.

3. crypto was scum but AWOL and no kill was sent in. (Which raises the question: how did they kill N2? Would the scumteam be permitted to pick the kill in crypto's absence?)

[Packbat]

Wait, no. I forgot that the rules say that scum have to

outnumber

living town - I'm used to normal games where it's vice-versa. Scratch 1.

[Packbat]

In normal games town is not forced to lynch - two-v-two means no-lynch, scum victory overnight. That don't hold here, to abuse the idiom.

[Packbat]

In a 2v2 situation here, scum is forced to revive scum to win. Otherwise they're back at 2v2 the next day.

[Packbat]

PreEDIT: why wasn't there a N1 kill?

The mod made it public knowledge that nobody can kill on Night 1.

*headdesk*

Right, I remember reading that in the ruleset.

[Packbat]

We are - claim at will.

[Packbat]

@malp: If whoever targeted you was town who wanted to give you something useful, why did they fail to say that they had said power?
Not saying such is a scum-claim.

Only mr. trow has to claim now?

This is correct.

List of Claims & Roles

1. Parama, Townie, killed Night 3

2. bobsnox: One-Shot Town Purger

3. Slaxx, Town Summoner, died Day 1

4. IceGuy: Townie

[b]5. Packbat: [url=https://forum.mafi ... ted Townie[/b]

6. Pomegranate: VT

7. ToastyToast: Jinxer

8. kiwieagle, Townie, modkilled Day 2

9. Bub Bidderskins: 'nilla

10. AntB: Townie

11. malpascp: Townie

12. StrangerCoug: Townie

13. MrTrow

[Packbat]

Bub Bidderskins/malpascp/Pomegranate. Signed, sealed, and delivered.

[Packbat]

Bub Bidderskins/malpascp/Pomegranate. Signed, sealed, and delivered.

I get where you're coming from with Bub and Pom (claiming VT instead of Townie), but why malpascp?

Pom gets revived. Right after Pom is revived, crypto's vote is stolen and given to malpascp - and both Pom and malpascp immediately vote for Bub Bidderskins.

The only possible flaw in the math is that it's way overpowered for scum to have a living vote-switcher, because that guarantees a scum-revive for them.

[Packbat]

Bub Bidderskins/malpascp/Pomegranate. Signed, sealed, and delivered.

I get where you're coming from with Bub and Pom (claiming VT instead of Townie), but why malpascp?

Pom gets revived. Right after Pom is revived, crypto's vote is stolen and given to malpascp - and both Pom and malpascp immediately vote for Bub Bidderskins.

Yeah, but malpascp always claimed he was going to vote for Bub. So I can imagine that scum chose him as "useful idiot".

...thereby protecting the third member of the scumteam (who, in that case, is almost certainly StrangerCoug)? I like it. It only works if the vote-switch is a one-shot - but if the power is one-shot, it's not stupidly overpowered any more.

UNVOTE: AntB

malpascp, do you have a second choice for a revival?

Also: @IceGuy, ToastyToast: two of us three will be alive tomorrow. If scum win this revive on a draw,

we

must win tomorrow's - so who do we pick?

[Packbat]

...thereby protecting the third member of the scumteam (who, in that case, is almost certainly StrangerCoug)? I like it. It only works if the vote-switch is a one-shot - but if the power is one-shot, it's not stupidly overpowered any more.

don't like this only because assuming that the abillity is a one-shot in the current situation is bad business.

If the ability isn't and they revive scum, we lose anyway. Pom-scum and malpascp revive Bub-scum; then Pom-scum, Bub-scum, and third-scum revive third-scum.

SC, trow, bub, bob, antB are our options.

Which scum-team combo would mrtrow fit into and why? I think we can make connections with almost everyone but him. this suggests that he's town.

Possibly, except that:

I don`t think the medium-thing is 1-shot

...no-one ever suggested that the role was called a "medium". I think it is (a) likely that that is the real name of the role if it is a living role and (b) unlikely that a townie would have guessed it. (

And

MrTrow was the most determined player to prevent the ToastyToast revive.)

I would scratch Trow and Bub Bidderskins (and StrangerCoug, just for safety's sake) and revive either bobsnox or ... huh. Fancy that.

VOTE: AntB

Also: @IceGuy, ToastyToast: two of us three will be alive tomorrow. If scum win this revive on a draw, we must win tomorrow's - so who do we pick?

Not sure I understand you here. If scum revive today, don't we lose?

Check the rules - scum must

outnumber

town to win.

[Packbat]

Also care to explain your 'for safety sake, lets avoid SC'?

If malpascp is town, he's my second candidate for third scumbag. He was entirely too enthusiastic about Pom and Bub, and he was scummy already.

[Packbat]

@bobsnox: Exactly what IceGuy said. Thanks for making me likely to jinx you tomorrow.

I don't think that's a good idea unless we don't have anyone scummier.

Mr. Trow was STRONGLY against my revive. This suggests strong opinions, not scum manipulation.

Strong opinions are null in my book - particularly if you factor in that the scum could have been desperate at that particular point in the game.

[Packbat]

@Trow: If scum have fake-claims, its probably one of a similar power to his actual. I guess it could be this game's version of bulletproof...

@Packbat: If bob were to shoot you b4 you were revived, would you have died immediately or stay in limbo?

I would stay in limbo - it says that in the description.

[Packbat]

Another question: why kill Parama instead of ToastyToast? The Jinxer power is pro-town, and Par never gave the slightest hint of having any powers whatsoever.

[Packbat]

Most likely town in {malpascp, StrangerCoug, MrTrow} would have to be SC, in my opinion - it would actually be really dubious for him to go bananas-enthusiastic about reviving Pomegranate instead of Bub Bidderskins if she were the scum-PR and he was the third in the group, given how he was generally considered suspicious.

[Packbat]

I'm ok with being directed <_<

By whom? To be directed by scum is worse than to shoot randomly.

[Packbat]

I'm sorry, malpascp - get well soon!

[Packbat]

Sorry for lack of activity recently; today was not, shall I say, a day I was going to spend on MS.

Perfectly understandable - post when you're caught up.

[Packbat]

Judging by malpascp's behavior, the scumteam is most likely that trio - malpascp, Bub Bidderskins, and Pomegranate. I'll back StrangerCoug or MrTrow.

[Packbat]

UNVOTE: AntB
VOTE: StrangerCoug

Follow the conftown. :/

[Packbat]

Bub's not scum. (I forgot the fact that IceGuy replaced Crypto, dumb me)

Then why did (a) you get the vote and (b) Pomegranate sheep you onto Bub Bidderskins? That only works if Pom is lying town and IceGuy is scum.

[Packbat]

If there was a power to

give up your own vote

to limbo, it would have to come with some sort of double-voting feature or it would be useless or worse. crypto is

not

the one with the medium power.

[Packbat]

Scum hopping for WIFOM around my previous townread on Bub?

Besides the obvious WIFOM of Pom making the vote switch. If scum could let the kill unused, it is more than likely that they could do the same with the vote-switch thing.

This post makes no sense.

[Packbat]

I'm obviously liking where this is going.

My two scumpicks are Packbat and malpascp at this point. I think bobsnox is telling the truth about his role but I still don't feel confident enough in him to have him revived.

Actually, if:

(a) we have two townies and two scumbags,
(b) bobsnox is town, and
(c) malpascp is scum,

reviving bobsnox might be our best shot at victory, because bobs could purge malpascp. In a 10v3 situation, that would mean a forced town win because scum could no longer acquire a majority.

[Packbat]

Not unless scum have an extra kill somewhere.

[Packbat]

Very Odd V/La Coming up

V/LA from the 13-14, and 17-20

That shouldn't be a problem - the deadline is on August 25th.

[Packbat]

(a) we have two townies and two scumbags,

two scumbags and scum being able to switch a vote: would be a near instant gameover. This simply cannot be the case.

That is why I think it possible that the ability is a one-shot.

But considering you seem to consider this a possibility: who decided not to kill when the blame was very likely to be on you?

Nobody made that choice. Pomegranate is the living scum.

Am i correct in assuming your vote not being on bobsnox means you`re not willing to bet the game on your malp-scumread (or any other scumread) at the moment ?

I don't want to risk losing the chance to win the tiebreaker.

[Packbat]

@packbat
So your post referred to future days?

That last remark: technically correct(well sort of, better than 'current position' is out of your hands, regaining 'current position' will remain possible) answer to my question but completely dodges the point:
Are you confident enough in your read on bobsnox(town purger) and malpascp(scum) to bet the entire game on it?

Do you see any other viable path to victory for town?

[Packbat]

Do YOU believe malpascp to be scum and bobsnox to be the purger (strongly enough) to be in favor of getting bobsnox to purge malpascp tonight?

I was stalling long enough to give malpascp one last chance to show himself to be anything other than scum, and he has failed to do so entirely. Yes, I am confident - if we have a three-slot scumteam, it is Pomegranate/Bub Bidderskins/malpascp, and ToastyToast must jinx and bobsnox purge accordingly.

You imply there is no other viable path to town victory other than the purge, yet you believe the medium to be 1-shot, care to shed some light on this?
as in if it is 1-shot town can quick-tie-hammer just as easily as scum can.

Just as easily as in a 50-50 chance? That we would need to win four times before scum do once? Purger is the way to go, here.

[Packbat]

That answers the question i had for the past half hour (the problem doesn`t lie in reading from my 'fancy new laptop' it lies in writing from it (hijacked one at my parents` for this post))
My apologies for this 'chaos'.

Anyways that post was intended to be another attempt to get Packbat to reveal whether his #947 was about today (day 3) or about later.
Packbat could you answer it this time?

ToastyToast is alive, so we don't need to revive bobsnox today - TT can jinx malpascp again tonight, either way. If Toasty dies tonight, we need to revive bobs so he can kill malpascp before his teammates can revive him.

Of course, if we revive bobs today, he can shoot Bub Bidderskins and TT can jinx malpascp. That would work equally well.

[Packbat]

if both answers are no: Could you please stop with denying town information and answer the damn question?
When you wrote #947 were you talking about D3 or about D4+? (to make it perfectly clear, i want either D3 or D4+ (or maybe a properly explained, none of the above) as an answer to this question in your next post)

When I made post #947, I hadn't thought it through as far as deciding which day to revive which people. At the time, I was not thinking about reviving bobsnox today, so I suppose the answer would have to be D4+.

[Packbat]

I'm still convinced the scumteam is Pomegranate/malpascp/Bub Bidderskins, and that we must revive bobsnox today or tomorrow.

[Packbat]

Deadline is in eight days - estimated countdown (expired on 2011-08-25 07:47:00).

I'll post every day, but malpascp and Pomegranate have confirmed their status by leaving their votes fixed, so there's nothing to be said.

[Packbat]

Anyway, why haven't I been revived yet?

Because you're scum.

I beg to differ.

The only reason anybody thinks I'm scum is because of something totally out of my control. The fact that malp voted for me when he got the chance in no way affects my scumminess. Any independent analisys of me would certainly find that I'm clearly the best revive.

That's because you're an extremely good scum player.

[Packbat]

IceGuy:

you are the town player most likely to survive to tomorrow. If Bub Bidderskins is revived and ToastyToast is shot, are you willing to vote for bobsnox?

[Packbat]

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

[Packbat]

Run the numbers, IceGuy. Which is more probable:

(A) That one of AntB, MrTrow, and StrangerCoug is a town vig

and

that we manage to pick one who is a town vig completely randomly right now?

(B) That bobsnox is honestly a town Purger?

I'd say that there's better than one-in-three odds that bobsnox is genuine right off the bat.

[Packbat]

And since Bub and Pom are pretty much confirmed scum but malpascp is only very likely scum, I'm inclined to err on the side of caution.

If malpascp were town, malpascp would notice that Pomegranate was scum. If any of the first three revived was the vote-stealer, then they would have stolen the vote and won immediately (if they were scum) or not stolen the vote until there was likely scum in the town (if they were town and the ability was one-shot) or stolen the vote of the most likely scumbag every day (if they were town and the ability was unlimited). And ToastyToast is the Jinxer, so he can't be the vote-stealer.

Given this, if malpascp were town, malpascp would have unvoted.

[Packbat]

It's (almost) confirmed the vote-stealing power is a scum power, since it wasn't claimed. It likely rests with Pomegranate. I assume you can either give the vote not to yourself or only to a player in limbo, so she couldn't give the vote to herself. Now malpascp has already claimed he wanted to revive Bub. There are two possibilities, since a Pom flip as "Scum Vote Stealer" or whatever would immediately make malpascp suspicious:
- malpascp is scum and prepared in advance so he doesn't have to explain why he's suddenly voting Bub.
- malpascp is town, thinks Bub is also town for some reason and was selected by Pom as an "useful idiot".

And I am telling you, every post that malpascp makes without

unvoting

Bub Bidderskins is further confirmation that the latter cannot be the case. If the day ends and malpascp's vote is still on Bub Bidderskins, malpascp is scum. Period.

Of course, if we revive bobs today, he can shoot Bub Bidderskins and TT can jinx malpascp. That would work equally well.

I`d rather see that the other way around (i`m more certain about malp than about bub and a mis-jinx we can handle, a mis-purge we can`t)

I'm not bobsnox or ToastyToast - if they would prefer to shoot malpascp and jinx Bub Bidderskins that's their prerogative. All they need to do is decide on who does which in advance (and they don't even truly

need

to, as long as bobsnox hits scum - it just works better that way).

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

Great idea: lets wait for scum to pick the day town has to outrun scum.

Sooner is better, absolutely. If ToastyToast wants to move his vote today I'll follow. I'm just saying that we don't

auto-lose

if it happens tomorrow.

Hai.

=

Didn't even acknowledge the discussion.

[Packbat]

Sorry, who do you want me to switch to? I'm fine with SC or MrTrow, with bobsnox drawing a "MEH"

Looking at the PRs we know about, I think it's likely that bobsnox is town, and if he is he's our best shot at victory - why are you "meh" on him?

[Packbat]

because the only reason you want to revive him is for his shot. His play is scummy.

Let me ask you a question, then. You're town. How will you win?

The way I see it, we have two choices.

(a) Win the draw every time from now to endgame - that's four times: StrangerCoug, AntB, MrTrow, and bobsnox. If we assumed that we could pull off each drawhammer half the time, that would be between 12.5% and 6.25% chance of victory.

(b) Revive bobsnox, shoot scum in limbo, and win because scum can't achieve majority in town. 50% chance of victory.

If you see a third way to reclaim the game, have at.

[Packbat]

The only case in which reviving bobsnox does not strictly dominate reviving

any other player

is the case where bobsnox is scum - and that would mean a four-player scumteam.

[Packbat]

The fact of the matter is: bobsnox is plausible VI, and

we have three players confirmed scum.

[Packbat]

because the only reason you want to revive him is for his shot. His play is scummy.

Let me ask you a question, then. You're town. How will you win?

The way I see it, we have two choices.

(a) Win the draw every time from now to endgame - that's four times: StrangerCoug, AntB, MrTrow, and bobsnox. If we assumed that we could pull off each drawhammer half the time, that would be between 12.5% and 6.25% chance of victory.

(b) Revive bobsnox, shoot scum in limbo, and win because scum can't achieve majority in town. 50% chance of victory.

If you see a third way to reclaim the game, have at.

This goes for IceGuy too. Unless someone in town comes up with a better game plan, we

have

to commit to reviving bobsnox.

[Packbat]

This goes for IceGuy too. Unless someone in town comes up with a better game plan, we

have

to commit to reviving bobsnox.

As I mentioned, I'd rather revive a vig or a "limbo-vig" (can move a player from "living" to "limbo").

If one exists and claims, sure. Does one exist? Has one claimed?

[Packbat]

If one exists and claims, sure. Does one exist? Has one claimed?

I don't know if one exists, but it seems strange to me that town should have absolutely no possibility to kill a living player. And if one exists, he probably thought it's better if he doesn't claim at this stage, because it would make him a prime target for scum.

Scum can't kill people in limbo, and if we revived him, he could kill one living scum before they took him out - and that would tip the living players in favor of town again.

[Packbat]

Scum can't kill people in limbo, and if we revived him, he could kill one living scum before they took him out - and that would tip the living players in favor of town again.

Exactly, that's why we're going to need him.

I don't think you understand me. If such a town PR existed, the player should have claimed already. They only need to survive long enough to make one nightkill.

[Packbat]

If a town vigilante of any kind claims, we can talk about reviving that player instead. Given that the only claimed town killing role is bobsnox, however,

and given that a quickhammered tie is needed to beat out scum

, will you vote for bobsnox if

no

such role exists?

[Packbat]

That's all I needed to hear. I'll try my level best to be here as early as possible in Day 4; unless we decide on someone else, we revive bobsnox.

[Packbat]

(And come to think, our odds of success are better than I realized - ToastyToast will jinx malpascp tonight, and that means (barring a fourth scumbag) we have two chances to beat scum to the revive.)

[Packbat]

I don't really like Packbat suggesting that bobsnox

MUST

be revived so he can make his shot, but then again, I find the latter townier than the former.

With pom and malp holding votes and having pretty much claimed this game will end in a scum-win there are 3 possiblilties:
1: we have at least 1 townie actively throwing the game (there is nothing we can do against that (well at least not within the game) )
2: there is no relevant limitation to (against) the medium (in which case we have already lost)
3: we are in the race exactly as described: only a shot by bob can win this for town.

Problem with this is: although i agree with you that bob is way more likely to be town than pack, i simply see no way the game isn`t already over while reviving bob being a bad move. (Well there is one but i`m not going to bet the game on that (possibility 1

and

maybe 2 apply in that case))

Exactly. It is only "must" in the sense that we are finally in a situation so simple that we have a single, unambiguous, mathematically-dominant strategy.

[Packbat]

Hey, if ToastyToast is willing to move his vote today, I'll follow him. But if he's not moving, there's no point in

my

doing so - that just guarantees Bub Bidderskins is revived.

[Packbat]

We can't retroactively be the first to reach two votes anyway.

[Packbat]

FFFF I really trust the other 2 more...
but fine

Unvote:Vote:bobsnox

If this is our one shot, we have to do it.

UNVOTE: StrangerCoug
VOTE: bobsnox

But we all agree - keep reviving bobs.

[Packbat]

malp, when you read this, get my vote on bobsnox. Failure to do so will be treated as a scum claim.

QFT.

[Packbat]

malp, when you read this,

unvote

. Failure to do so will be treated as a scum claim.

FTFY

Good point - if malp has some thought on a better strategy than the bobsnox revive, there's no need to end the day instantly.

[Packbat]

I'm not an idiot. Bub is defenitivelly town.

Have you read up on everything posted during your V/LA?

[Packbat]

EBWOP: If you have not, have you read #985, #998, and #1014?

[Packbat]

P.S. bobsnox: if malpascp unvotes, purge Bub Bidderskins.

[Packbat]

If ToastyToast blocks malpascp again, we'll have two shots - I'd say the odds favor us, but I'm far from equanimous.

[Packbat]

malpascp: you are dumb. You just claimed scum.

I don't think that's quite fair, ToastyToast - smart people do stupid things all the time. Besides, many people believe that it is more often an error to back off than it is to commit, and that is all that malpascp has done in this case.

[Packbat]

I'd like to hear it after the game if it's all right, MrTrow. Unvote doesn't seem likely.

My logic is pretty simple: even if malpascp unvotes, we will still be certain of Pomegranate's alignment, and Pom voted Bub. Obviously malpascp would still be a strong candidate for jinxing, but I don't see that purging him is the lesser risk.

[Packbat]

@MrTrow: Yessir!

[Packbat]

Guess the 'taking the vote from crypto thing' was either to throw us off track or scum can`t pick which vote they take.

If they wanted to campaign on being townies who stole the vote of their biggest scumspect, it would have been a good choice. Honestly, I don't know why Pomegranate

didn't

claim to be a town PR.

[Packbat]

Maybe because she isn't -.-

Actually, even though you're lying, you're still telling the truth - I'd guess it's a habit for scum to lie during massclaim.

[Packbat]

@IceGuy: malpascp's scum, and scumpartners with Bub Bidderskins and Pomegranate. That's proven, now. So, ToastyToast jinxes malpascp tonight, we shoot to revive bobsnox ASAP, and bobsnox shoots malpascp. You'll probably be on deck, IceGuy, so get ready when the sun goes down for dawn.

[Packbat]

I'm with Parama - the vote-stealing role was quite powerful enough as a one-shot, making it unlimited is simply broken.

@ToastyToast: They steal my vote or IceGuy's and they have three votes - revive anyone else, kill whoever, revive malpascp. It's only a day delay.

[Packbat]

Pomegranate +3
...
What the hell I think is going down in this thread:
SC/Bub/malp scumteam.

yeah.
the problem was that nobody but Pome really looked townie enough for me to revive D2 :/

I'm glad you said that - I was feeling really guilty about badgering town into reviving scum.

[Packbat]

You did your job this game, Bub. Your teammates betrayed your alignment, that's all.

[Packbat]

You did your job this game, Bub. Your teammates betrayed your alignment, that's all.

Because there was no reason not to; going into the day I realized that although I would probably play in an obvscum fashion, it didn't matter because it was the way to win. I do think my PR was extremely powerful, but I do think it would be balanced if it was a one-shot.

Indeed - you guys did your job too. If it

had

been a one-shot it would have been risky to quickhammer like that, but as it stood subtlety was not needed.

I did really enjoy the game mechanic. However, I think that if scum isn't revived D0, it often becomes very obvious if scum is revived later, because of the NK.

That's something I noticed - you basically start at LyLo, which is weird.

[Packbat]

EBWOP:

also that

you basically start at LyLo.