Mini 379: Speed Mafia (game over!)

[Tamuz]

Go Speed Racer, go Go! Speed Racer! Pow!

[Tamuz]

Statistics are scummy.

vote: BA

We aren't computers or something that works by a 'random' program.
Scumchat is also a different game, I don't trust your statistics. I think rather than halving our numbers and racking up deaths as quickly as possible we should shift our thinking up rather than our killing. This is a game of mind not muscle, and we should also employ little tactics, including these little things like investigation, which I assume and pray we have. I think these would be more valuable than mega-death.

I do not follow the Palermo Protocol for Punctulicious Town Play (PPPTP), but for fun, and because Fiasco is a mod, I'll consider attacking people for it.

[Tamuz]

As if spurred by waking up and needing to post here, I posted, crazy, eh?

I have Span 331 in 20 minutes, so you'll need to wait until after that class for me to show you why:
1. Statistics are scummy
2. Branding lurkers after like 4 hours when not accounting for time zones is scummy
3. How I feel about Twomz's suggestion (which I'll need to reread to look at...)

[Tamuz]

uhh, why could I use some pressure hun? I'm feeling antsyness from you. Just because we are on a timeline doesn't mean we should abandon caution and give in to overzealous unbased bandwagoniness. Speaking of which, is Cogito in this game?

Anyway.

1. Statistics are a false mathematics, they are really easy to use to malrepresent events. As you can see I can give off 50 percentages of our 'chance' to lynch scum if we played randomly (which mind you, if I said we have a 25% chance to lynch scum, remember that we have a

75%

chance to lynch townies. That, my friends is NOT favourable odds). However, this is not a random program, there are things to put in, that are not and cannot be represented in statistics, like scum tells. If we, as an example, were to lynch Zindaras that is either a 100% chance we lynch scum or a 100% chance we lynch town... one way or another but we really don't know. Don't let math impress you or awe you.

As LyingBrian put it, everything is a 50-50 chance, either it'll happen or it won't. And even that is misrepresented.

Personally I find statistics as a scum-crutch that they can and do lean on in order to denounce thought, but to post alot of big posts with no substance just compilation of information we all already have. Honestly, we aren't numbers or anything, we are people, we do not act under statistics we act under fluid processes.

2. Not saying you were BA, but multiple people had put out that those who haven't posted yet are to be called lurkers (yet your readiness to remove yourself from any such scummy lurker hunt is noted). I just wanted to put it out there that not everyone, even though this game requires activity, has the same schedule as you all, 6 hours is way too early to call someone a lurker, 14 I could understand better in this game.

3. Yeah, I'm against that lurkerlynch system.

4. BA, I'm keeping my vote, stop playing in other games and get your head in this game. I don't give a shit how other games worked and turned out, I care about your alignment and actions in THIS game. What you are doing is what I call flakking. I'm not liking it.

Even though Stoofer says I shouldn't, I will claim

[Tamuz]

Oh yeah, just noting to myself, I haven't read or responded to post 69, I will in my next real post


And your usagage of WIFOM BA is noted, especially that you brought it up without an arguement. A preemptive defense before such accusation (ref p 52)

[Tamuz]

BA, get your head out of your OMGUS'ing ass.

Quote please my 'panic', or sorry my ire because you were suggesting things just stupid. About me not rebuking you, mind you I did.

And cut all this math shit, I don't care how well you can throw around functions. I assure you everyone here can do the same, and probably many of them better, but the fact is that this is a game of language as opposed to math, which would explain why LML is a mafia god while mathcam is just damn good.

Your vote doesn't make me feel bad about voting you.


I want a name claim by the way, not just a role. Alright hun?

[Tamuz]

Or maybe, BA, scum didn't want to toss onto that bandwagon because they're afraid of the PR that it would cause.

Pretty sure I attacked your plan by refuting it seeing as you misinterpretted your numbers and made it sound oh so much better than it iactually is.

[Tamuz]

Thanks for misrepresenting me.

How so? You said it yourself. We have a 25% chance to lynch scum. If we try 4 times we're almost certain to get scum, given how odds work.

We are drawing cards here with probabilities. 1/52 1/52 etc. This doesn't require that you have to draw a spade in your first 4 cards, or even your first 39.

However, this isn't even random, it is based off of observation. If we lynch 4 scummy people then the odds of getting scum is incredibly high.

If it is based off observation then we shouldn't use probabilities. We aren't Isaac Asimov, we don't have meta-mathematics to calculate the future based on trends of peopl.

The numbers of my original post work, to a point where if the town as a whole agreed to it we could win the game statistically, and apply intuition where nessecary. No-one has really refuted those numbers themselves. What has been refuted is the idea of random lynching (which is now a non-issue, I feel, given that we have a lot of content which can be mulled over).

But there is still the fact you wanted to take the power away from the town and put it in the hand of dice and randomness. That isn't mafia, and I'm not playing 'your' game.

]As LyingBrian put it, everything is a 50-50 chance, either it'll happen or it won't. And even that is misrepresented.

This

is psuedo math, borderline theory. Scum use this frequently to their advantage by saying "Oh, but he's either scum or he's not, right? Those are good odds". Citing the chance of getting scum with 4 consecutive lynches isn't psuedo math, because it can be calculated out. There are variables unaccounted for, yes, but the math I presented is still accurate for a random-lynch scenario. I don't see how targetting the scummiest players can DROP those percentages presented.

I was using that to show statistics and how they pretty much suck. You even included my 'even that is misrepresented' in your quote, but you didn't catch that?
The math present is correct for a random lynch scenario, but we aren't playing that, even if WE townies tried all ya'll scum wouldn't play into our plan. And luck wouldn't either.

That said, the town needs to get active and come to a concensus now on who we're lynching once second phase starts (or before, so we get an extra vote still alive, which is crucial with all of this non-activity).

I'm not seeing a problem with the discussion going on here, stop trying to cut our days shorter than they already are. If we need to speed lynch scum we always can, when we have time. I'd rather no lynch for three days and gather information then speed kill 3 scum on the fourth day. Can't see why anyone wouldn't, I mean that would really favour the town.

Tamuz is sounding scummier and scummier with every post he makes, Twomz has sounded scummy from the start, and I wouldn't be too upset about a TheManHimself lynch either.

You decided I was scum after my first post, because I attacked your ideas, ever since then you have just dug yourself a bigger hole by half-defending what you stood for, which now you are trying to get rid of, but call yourself good because you tried using it. Regardless

Stop fucking OMGUS'ing, it isn't helping the town.

Just because they vote you doesn't necesarily mean that they are scum, or even that they want you dead.

[Tamuz]

How about the other direction BA, I have my own name and I wanted to see if yours would check out in similarity to mine.

My mention of the PPPTP was 99.5% joke.

[Tamuz]

unvote: BA
vote: m4yhem

Explanation in the morning after my psyche exam, but basically you can say
*tamuz nods in ascension to Pablito*

[Tamuz]

unvote: M4yhem vote: BA

In light of HackerHuck's death I'll return to BA.

Why?
(all post numbers, reference to the HackerHuck only view)

I'm going to be confused by the scratcher and the penguin.

Vote: Tamuz (1)

Defense of BA by voting those who are voting him, and casting doubt on both myself & Twomz after saying that BA's plan is reasonable. (OK, to be fair I hadn't posted yet but he bounces from me and twomz)

Your numbers make sense

States BA=rational, but gives him a little slap on the hand followed by a

I think you're likely town so I won't vote you

Weak attacks without action.

Skip to further on, BA's reaction to the kill just seems like a scum tell to me similar to the 'doc' tell. When scum have their kill blocked, its something like 80% that the first person to say "good job doc" is scum.

[Tamuz]

T'wasn't detailed so much.

Pablito, an opportunistic scum might use it, but so would someone who thinks that there actually is a relationship and that it is truly a scumtastic tell. Are you the third man of the Blitzkreig mafia with HH & BA?

My view on M4yhem, I think he is scummy, perhaps a SK scummy, perhaps mafia. I'm not sure what to think of this game yet (2 groups of two, or 1 group of 3 + SK). I don't think that kill was a vig shot though. Pablito has me fairly convinced that M4yhem is scum, if I were to do some silly prevote junk I would do so on M4yhem.

Lets see, Arafax, haven't looked at him much, here goes.
Against MBL, which may be why you want him looked at, stuck on tmh's lucrosity, uhh, slight attacks on me (getting distracted here) uhh, not really getting scummy from him, nor overwhelming pro-town though.



But by all means, do bandwagon me lads...

[Tamuz]

Pablito.

Since we have the lynch style, I ask you: Why not both?

[Tamuz]

unvote: BA vote: M4yhem
prevote: BA

prevotes=filthy

You know M4yhem, I'm not just following pablito, but in the case that he has presented I agree with him, you look scummy. I'm not going to dig up and reach through your posts for something more just to kill you.

Arafax, I think you still are confused on the point I said that people can vote for others without implying that they want to kill them. The BJ strategy is an example of this, or look at scum distancing. There are times when votes don't imply wish to kill.

[Tamuz]

Not to mention that the specific mention of the mafia being the blitzkreig mafia lends to the idea of a second mafia, although the kills do not lend to that idea.

Mert, wanna explain why you killed Hacker?

The Desert Fox was too great & honorable a man to be embarressed thusly

[Tamuz]

Wile E. Coyote seems much more to be not good than anything else, and would imply there is a roadrunner in this game, I'd think.

But I guess I'll wait at this point. That is the best option right here.

[Tamuz]

I disagree with the dual kill

I agree with the Wile E. Coyote kill.

[Tamuz]

Then why not hammer, Tamuz?

I'm afraid there may be enough prevotes to kill if I do so.

[Tamuz]

unvote:BA Prevote: BA Vote: Mert

[Tamuz]

I agree so much I'd volunteer to go first. Although I have no internet access for an hour and a half after this post.

[Tamuz]

Hence me not going out on an unstable limb and actually doing it.

[Tamuz]

Oh, and it would be preferable to have our mass claiming done before phase II. No, I don't think this would help scum get a power role, because they could just delay their kill until we claim during phase II. So really the earlier we have all the information the better.

[Tamuz]

*Tamuz glares angrily*

[Tamuz]

That kind of defeats Arafax's reasoning for putting him that high then.

FOS: BA, I usually don't use FOS, but I'm already voting you, so yeah...

[Tamuz]

Clark Kent, Vanilla

[Tamuz]

unvote

[Tamuz]

Tamuz is always wrong about me

So my once held innocent impression of you is wrong?

[Tamuz]

BA... he was an exploding townie, I think there was a certain trigger, like his nameclaim, such things DO happen, eh?

Or some other trigger.

[Tamuz]

I vouch for BA, although he is being slightly aggressive about it.

[Tamuz]

Patience young Padawan.

[Tamuz]

I think I can safely put it this way, If BA and I were 2 of a final three, we would then vote off the third with assurance they are scum, and in no way could be swayed to vote each other.

So in my mind I'd pop BA down a bit on your list twomz, sir

[Tamuz]

vote: MBL

too late?

[Tamuz]

MBL, You essentially told me that you were scum when you said Tamuz is always wrong about me when you weren't even on my radar.