Mini 452 NBA All-Stars Mafia-Game Over!

[Sonicpulsar]

Howdy everyone. I'm on page 5 atm, I'll try and read everything tomorrow and make an intelligent post.

[Sonicpulsar]

Good grief, I should have quit reading while I was ahead. Now I'm going to force myself to make a quick post before I go to bed while all the info is still in my head. While I was reading, I quoted a few posts that I found significant.

Unless I missed something, the three people praising No Lynch at some point are Yogurt, xyzzy, and Fletcher. I want to place a

minor FOS: YogurtBandit

for suggesting it in the first place, a

major FOS: xyzzy

for advocating a plan of not lynching every night, which would undoubtedly kill off too many townspeople before we got a confirmed Mafia.

Lastly, I am going to

Vote: Fletcher

. I am tenetively sure that Nekka_Lucifer was pro-town. In Fletcher's post 150, I think he's trying to steer us into believing that Nekka-Lucifer was scum. This in itself is not enough to merit a vote, but I noticed that Fletcher has stated that he would "be fine with a no-lynch", and as an experienced player, he should know better. I also noted that he never actually voted No Lynch; I think that he's attempting to get others on the No Lynch bus without getting on it himself. Finally, he brings up the fact that he has had a long leave of absence from Mafia several times, and I think this may be to provide an excuse for sub-optimal play under the guise of rust.

Interesting...

Overall: A papaya doesn't give out a whole lot of information. He doesn't often comment upon the scumminess of other players. In most situations, I would find this pretty scummy, but his choices haven't been terribly damning. Not necessarily an auto-lynch, but someone to keep in mind for later days if he neglects to contribute further.

Its a little late, so i am not going to post on what i think of everyone, but i will give what i think about the players i believe to be scum or are scummy. First, I think mlaker is pretty scummy. it seems like he acknowledges that hes been lurking and hasnt really tried to help out the town at all. he could be scum, or is just lazy. I need more posts from him to vote for him but he could quite possibly recieve my vote if he stays inactive. The next person I believe to be scum ATM is TCS. Frankly, i dont like the way hes been playing and it really doesnt seem protown at all.

Ok, so to stir up some discussion, I'm going to make a list of the order of scumminess that I picked up on while reading. I did make quick list with a lot of notes on it. Here goes:

Going from Most Scum (1) to Most Townie (10):

1. A Papaya/schismatized. I was getting a very strong scum vibe from A Papaya the entire time I was reading. He jumped on McStab (me) awfully quickly when McStab (me) came out of lurking. While I absolutely agree that lurking is very scummy (and while I'm on that subject, posting a ton is also very scummy, if for no other reason then it's like the opposite of lurking), the fact that Yogurt jumped on me so quickly after that makes me really think one of them is scum.

I just can't decide which one.

2. Yogurt. Read above.

3. Fletcher. He was the last person I added to my list. What does that mean? He flew under my radar for the entire read and that usually is a scum tell. Otherwise, I don't have a lot to say, it just really surprised me that I ended up on page 14 with only 9 names on my list.

4. TCS. Seems to ask others to do a lot of stuff for him, like asking others to analyze people. Seems like a way to get others to do the dirty work for him while maintaining a distance. Awfully scummy.

5. Xzzy. Your whole comment about changing your "playstyle" did not sit right with me. Seriously, who states something like that in the middle of Day 1? Seemed like an innocent enough scum mistake.

6. Xdaamo. You post....a lot. While generally, I enjoy rampant discussion, you do a lot of just "posting". Seems like you're over-compensating for the scum tendency to lurk.

7. Mlaker. You've said your excuses, I still think you're lurking. I'd put you higher but you seem to be getting into the game now.

8. IH. In a lot of aspects, you seem to be fairly inactive. You seem to do like I tend to do and just make few, but very large posts. You throw out a lot of information, sometimes without any sort of signficant backing. Much like I'm doing with this post. Overall, not very scummy.

9. HC. Much like Fletcher, you flew under my radar for quite some time until someone else pointed out that you were flying under the radar. Then I immediately began to focus a lot on your posts and you really seem like a townie to me now. I cannot make any sort of intelligent deduction to if you're a power role or not.

10. inHim. Meh, my note for you was to move you higher than the bottom, but I forget why. It has to do with the fact that I'm most confident in HC being a townie, but at this point, it doesn't affect the rest of what I've written too much so I'm not gonna worry about it.

Conclusions:

My first instinct is to obviously vote for who I think is the most scummy, which is schis, but he has no votes atm so I'm left wondering why I'm the only person of the other 9 who thinks he's scum. On top of that, you relinquished your vote on me (the double whammy from you and Yogurt earlier) from earlier so I'll step off of you for now.

The next logical person would be Yogurt, but he's already voting for me. I don't want to come across as retaliatory til I see how everyone reacts to me (not McStab).

Thus, I'm left with

Vote: Fletcher

. Your ability to fly under my radar the ENTIRE thread has scared me. While not exactly lurking, I don't think you've contributed much of anything. I'd FOS you but things need to get moving.

Wow, that was fun to write.

[Sonicpulsar]

Based on my limited experience, I've seen only two types of people who post a ton in these games. 1: Scum overcompensating the lurking tendencies, 2: Overeager townies. Neither of those two situations is good for the town. But I'd much rather have people posting too much than not enough.

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't like your conclusions......

First, You believe two people are scummier, and breeze over them. You must not think they're scummy enough to try and convince the town.

It looks more like these scumtells

1.Trying to please the town, because they don't find schism scummy
2.Trying to LOOK town. There's a difference between looking town and trying to look town (Not wanting to look like you're omgusing)

Second, I don't like your suspicion on Fletcher as third. I disagree he's flying under the radar, especially in my reread as I noticed his posts alot. He seems to offer more of the opposite side of the arguments, and I seem to agree with him more because I don't agree with the most of the players posting.

I clearly stated exactly why I didn't vote for either of the people at the top of my list. It honestly surprised the hell out of me when Fletcher didn't not appear on my notes. I agree, when I went back to look at this posts, he definitely has some substance, but he never took a strong enough stand to make me right a note about it. This could have easily been pure oversight or information overload. I simply voted for him to garner more information FROM him. As I said in my original post, I could have FOSed, but voting seems to be prudent at this point to get things moving faster.

Perhaps a reread while shed some light on him. I haven't gotten the gumption yet but I'll start now (albeit much slower than I did last night).

[Sonicpulsar]

Sorry for the double posts, but after I reread my post I felt I had to make a couple of rhetorical statements (or are there only rhetorical questions?).

I can't merely go back and just read Fletcher's posts and gain enough information about him. It always helps me to go back and do a complete reread so that I fully understand the context of people's posts. Some people just reiterate what others have said, some just retaliate to what others say and never say anything original, etc.

[Sonicpulsar]

And yes, I'm overdefensive in all my games -_-'

sry to get off the subject here, but why does everyone think this is a bad trait? im not asking about this game in particular, but in mafia generally.

It's not necessarily a bad trait, I just think it comes to light more often when people are NOT vanilla townies. Just think of the example of a wife claiming her husband is cheating. More often than not, the guilty will blow the situation up (or perhaps over compensate and act like it's nothing) while the truly innocent will remain calmer, simply because they have nothing to hide.

I understand these are generalizations, but it's tendencies we're looking for.

On a different note, I'm going to an ultimate frisbee tournament this weekend. I'm leaving later today (Friday) and won't get back until late Sunday.

[Sonicpulsar]

Unvote, Vote: Schismatized

So apparently I wasn't the only one thinking Schis is scum. At least several other people have come to the same conclusion I did.

I'm keeping a big FOS on Yogurt for his jumping on the original bandwagon on me and an FOS on Fletcher for being sneaky (under my radar).

The more interesting question I'm asking myself now is how things will change if either Schis or Xdaamo are lynched. I'll have to go back and read who voted for who and when, but I don't find it likely (although still possible) that these two are connected. I find it more likely that Schis is connected with Yogurt.

[Sonicpulsar]

OK, claim? Regular townie? Who's your NBA player? I don't know if not mentioning that is necessarily suspicious but I'd still like to know. I'm quite sure you're scum Xdaamno.

Out of curiosity, what makes you so sure? I've stated my opinions on some of his scummy behavior but I've yet to come to a conclusion that he's scum, especially compared to some other people. I'd like to know how you're so sure.

Upon further review, posts 336 and 349 lend credit to why you think he's scum, but I'm still not convinced it's enough to lynch him. I just find other people to be scummier at the moment.

I do find it odd that you lump Schis and Xdaamo together, while I want to lump Yogurt and Schis together instead. Yogurt did vote for an extension. Could be he's protecting Xdaamo.

Hmmm....schis's last post was to go back and vote for Mlaker again. Might be some retaliatory action going on, or perhaps scum trying to throw the town off their trail. I'll have to re-examine their interaction together thus far.

[Sonicpulsar]

As for schis, I've been watching him/his predecessor all game, and while I haven't seen any red flags, there have been some yellows. Particularly when part of the reason many people ae voting XDaamno is because Schis has defended him all game, then Schis becomes the person to lynch BEFORE Xdaamno. Perhaps they're scum together. Perhaps Schis is scum and is defending Xdaamno because he know's that he's town, much like TCS accused me of doing earlier.

Either way, Schismatized should come before Xdaamno.

Mlaker has been relatively quiet. However, after talking mostly about players not named Xdaamno, he suddenlt posts that he's suspicious. This is followed by a vote, and then by a statement that he has a "gut feeling", and then that he is "quite sure" Xdaamno is scum. So, mlaker, why are you now "quite sure" if you only had a gut feeling before?

IGMEOY, mlaker.

As for the vote against myself, I addressed it already. You can read my last couple posts if you want.

If we're gonna pick any of the four people above, I don't see how Schismatized isn't the play

.

I hate to say it again (someone already pointed out that HC and I seem to finish each other sentences) but HC just said what I was getting around to posting myself and kinda already said in my last post (emphasis on the underlined parts). Schis just seems like the logical choice to lynch first. We should get quite a few answers after we see what role he is.

My vote stands.

[Sonicpulsar]

Ok, we have to assume there's probably no SK since no one else was killed, Day 2 started early, and it doesn't fit with the theme. With that basic assumption out of the way, I'll give an analysis based purely on the most recent activities and my original thoughts. I'll have to go back and do a good reread to try and find links.

As has been stated, we can assume there's either 3 or 4 mafia in the game. I've yet to read a 12 person mini that had 2 or 5 mafia. That leaves a ratio of either 3:6 or 4:5. My second big assumption will be that there aren't 4 mafia based on the fact the mod was willing to modkill a townie. If there are 4 mafia, if we lynch another townie, mafia will probably win short of some luck with power roles.

This leads me to really think we're sitting on 3 mafia, 6 townies left. HC could form a masonry with one other townie and talk at night. I can say up front that I wasn't that townie. But that does mean one of two scenarios exist. HC and somebody else were working together (assuming HC was allowed to get someone before the game officially started on Day 1, can the mod confirm/deny that?).

Thus, I plan to go back and see who HC was working with to make sure we don't lynch that guy. We can safely assume it wasn't Schis since HC voted for his lynch.

If we assume HC and his mason friend were working together and trusted each other's moves (voted to lynch Schis on Day 1), then that leaves inHim, mlaker, xyzzy, and Yogurt as his mason friend. I'll have to go back and see which of those 4 was most likely his knowledgeable friend. Anyone want to own up to it? Hmmm, I'm not sure if that question will appear scummy or not. I'm trying to think if it'd be to either side's advantage to know at this point, considering half the masonry is dead. I guess it could put that player in the clear from getting lynched but a mafia guy could also claim it and then we'd be sorta forced to lynch one of them, which would be to the town's advantage (LAL, eventually). I'll have to think on that more.

Now I must comment on that fact that out of everyone, I was most convinced HC was a townie and he happened to be one. Couple this with the fact that I thought Schis was the scummiest of everyone and he turned out to be a townie as well leads me wonder....wtf. But I'll be damned if he didn't act like scum a majority of the time. I'm honestly surprised to see he was a townie.

Well, enough rambling. There isn't a lot of substance there but I wanted everyone to know what I'm thinking before I do an analysis looking for links.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, if HC did make the mistake of choosing a mafia guy to form the masonry with, that might explain his death on Night 1. But I'd have to believe the mafia would be smart enough to try and use that to their advantage rather than just kill him on Night 1. But the ability to form a masonry seems kind of stupid (read: interesting) if HC didn't know if the person he chose was town or not.

Regardless, I'm forced to conclude that it would have been silly for the mafia to kill off a link to the town that could be swayed to help lynch other townies. I think it's one of the four I originally guessed.

Is it safe to assume that HC formed the masonry before Day 1 and that they had a chance to talk before the game started? If not, then it doesn't really matter who HC talked to since he's dead and the other mason really learned no new information.

[Sonicpulsar]

Thanks Thok. You answered my question.

Ok, well that makes the analysis a bit easier. For all intents and purposes, HC's death was just a vanilla townie. At least he wasn't one of the other power roles.

[Sonicpulsar]

Cop, Vigilante, Doctor, etc, etc. Being a mason with one other person, while powerful, probably wouldn't help the game as much as a doctor or cop. Vig is up for grabs.

[Sonicpulsar]

Haschel had contacted me last night too = (

So, we've learned a couple of things here.

1. We have to assume HC thought IH to be the most pro-town person out of us all.

2. IH could be lying and we know that liars are always lynched.

Since 2 is unlikely, I'm gonna go with 1.

I haven't come to any conclusions yet, I'm just stating what I see.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, it gives us some insight in to what HC might have to say about at least one person (namely IH). In other words, if HC hadn't been killed, it's sometimes useful to think of what he probably would have done. I was just stating that we can assume he trusted IH since he wanted to add him to his masonry.

While I agree there are times where a townie can/should lie, most of the time people realize the LAL rule. Thus, people will only lie when it's either quite unlikely that they'll be caught or when it's to their advantage (read: scum) or both. I guess I'm just getting at the fact that it tends to be a scummy activity to lie, townies have little to hide, scum have everything to hide.

[Sonicpulsar]

Didn't realize I was derailing the thread. I can try and minimize my "meta-talk" if it's annoying people or contributing very little to the thread.

I just like to state things I'm thinking early so that it doesn't sound like I'm defending someone or trying to redirect focus off of other people. If you're paying attention, I'm basically defending IH in the above posts.

I'm busy with a wedding this weekend (I'm a groomsman) so I won't be posting until late Sunday. Guess that'll give me a chance to reply to actual posts rather than state my analyses and continue my "meta-talk". At least I'm talking/discussing.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, the fun part now is the fact that Inhim wasn't sure who was scummier, Xdaamno or I and if you go back and look, we're about the only people really posting (IH is contributing and obviously you Inhim). A few others are posting but seems like Xdaamno and I are the ones putting ourselves out there more than most.

At least I really feel like I'm putting myself out there, trying to explain my thoughts on what's going on when I have very little else to go off of. Seems like I inevitably end up arguing/discussing with a remote few while the rest either lurk or make very bland posts that don't contribute.

No one has taken the time yet to try and find links based on the people who were killed, etc. I admit that I haven't done a reread, but at least I've tried to make an analysis, I'd like to see a few others step up and start some discussion.

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't really feel like I can justify a vote for anyone until more people have posted. As I stated earlier, it's unfair to just pass judgement over the people who are posting. We've had several people who are either uninterested in the game or are lurking on purpose. Hell, some people like YB, mlaker, xyzzy, TCS and Fletcher (the list just kept growing as I looked back) haven't made any real contributions at all.

At this point, I'm more suspicious of the five of them than anyone else. Especially YB for the hammer and TCS for the quick vote with little reasoning.

To perhaps get some discussion, I'm gonna

FOS YB and TCS

.

[Sonicpulsar]

I do want to wait and see everyone's reasons for voting Xdaamno. Yesterday he threw off some of my suspicion with the claim so I'm not raring to vote him right now. I could be convinced, however if it's not good reasoning I could easily see this as a vote engineered by mafia who are building on yesterday's Xdaamno animosity.

Ok, so damn you for making a post AS I was making post that included you for lurking! Good stuff.

Anyways, what are you implying with your last sentence? Are you saying the people who have voted for Xdaamno could be scum and that they're trying to play off of everyone's (I assume) negative feelings toward Xdaamno? If so, I'm inclined to agree with you. At this piont, I'm starting to think that Xdaamno is either crappy town (over zealous) or scum. I'm leaning toward the former.

[Sonicpulsar]

TCS, you probably have, but not since Day 2 started. I believe you've only made one vote on Day 2 and it was an immediate vote with little reasoning behind it. That's what makes me suspicious. All I'm asking is that you rationalize the vote. I'll be the first to admit sometimes I just go with my gut (sorry Schis) when there's no clear indication, but I try to start with actual reasonings.

I'm not really trying to call you out on it, just trying to perk up discussion and that was one of the small things that was bothering me.

[Sonicpulsar]

Anyways, what are you implying with your last sentence? Are you saying the people who have voted for Xdaamno could be scum and that they're trying to play off of everyone's (I assume) negative feelings toward Xdaamno? If so, I'm inclined to agree with you. At this piont, I'm starting to think that Xdaamno is either crappy town (over zealous) or scum. I'm leaning toward the former.

Uhm, what the

fuck

? Crappy town? I've made more commitment to this game that you have, easily. I've analysed a lot more than everyone else and you can't say I'm crappy for attracting attention when I blatantly don't know why everyone even suspects me.

Xdaamno, I'm trying to basically tell you why everyone suspects you. You're over zealous (at least in my eyes). This leads to me thinking you're either scum, or won't do much good for the town.

The reason you won't do much good for the town is the fact that you're grabbing so much attention. It's easier for scum to float under the radar. I mean, if I really thought you were scum, I'd have voted for you a while ago. This makes me think you're crappy town. But that's just

me

. Perhaps others (yourself included) think your tactics are genius and game winning. I don't. But as long as you're having fun, who cares.

[Sonicpulsar]

Xdaamno, I'm trying to basically tell you why everyone suspects you. You're over zealous (at least in my eyes). This leads to me thinking you're either scum, or won't do much good for the town.

The reason you won't do much good for the town is the fact that you're grabbing so much attention. It's easier for scum to float under the radar. I mean, if I really thought you were scum, I'd have voted for you a while ago. This makes me think you're crappy town. But that's just me. Perhaps others (yourself included) think your tactics are genius and game winning. I don't. But as long as you're having fun, who cares.

For the first time on this site, I'm angry at someone for being such an idiot. Really. You're saying you think I'm town, but also I'm not doing much good because I'm grabbing so much attention. Has it even fucking occured to you I thought not holding back views would work in the long term, and that this is how I always play? This is so patronizing and childish it's almost a scum tell for manipulation. If you don't have anything nice to say, shut up.

Wow. I covered my tracks as much as I could explaining why

I

think you're not a good town player. If you reread the last sentence of my previous post, you will understand what follows. I'm no longer having any fun discussing this game with you. I now think you're scum.

Vote: Xdaamno

[Sonicpulsar]

Any chance we can get some prodding?

[Sonicpulsar]

Meh, I'm still not sure if Xdaamno is crappy town or scum. I came to the conclusion of my vote based on the fact that I got tired of arguing with him. In other words, if I was straddling the 50/50 mark on him being scummy or not, the fact that he's annoying, over reactive and takes things personally makes me wanna get him out of the game, thus swaying my 50/50 position.

My vote stands til I see someone supply a good reason not to lynch Xdaamno.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I was honestly a bit worried at the relative rapidity with which Xyzzy was lynched til we found out he was scum. I'll have to go back and see who distanced themselves from him or made any sort of link.

On a different subject that no one has discussed yet, why was IH killed? Facts:
1. He didn't vote for Xyzzy.
2. He was the supposed mason partner of HC.
3. He wasn't posting a tremendous amount.

These facts lead me to examing three scenarios with the basic assumption that there are 3 mafia (could be wrong).

1. 2 voted for Xyzzy to distance themselves and/or throw off the scent.
2. 1 voted, 1 did not.
3. Neither voted for him.

I'll go ahead and do away with #3 because that would mean I'm scum (only Xdaamno, Xyzzy, IH and myself didn't vote for Xyzzy and 2 of those 4 are dead).

To me (and this isn't based on hardcore facts), 1 seems more likely to me than 2. Thus, I'm lead to believe 2 of the 5 voters are probably scum meaning Xdaamno probably isn't scum in my eyes.

Now,of couse the interesting thing to determine is who is scum amongst the 5 voters.

I'll have to reread the past couple of pages and then I'll probably rank the 6 people based on that. At the moment, I'm curious how we already have 2 people voting for Xdaamno when we haven't even discussed IH's death. Seems awfully scummy.

FOS Fletcher and Adam

[Sonicpulsar]

Fletcher, no one has really discussed why IH was killed or what it implies BEYOND the all-stars stuff. Even if the all-stars theory is correct, it's still a good thing to discuss why someone was killed, etc. That's all I'm saying. Thus far, there's been very little discussion on that.

TCS, your massclaim suggestion and order is interesting. You put at the head and yourself at the end. Who puts themselves at the end? If you're actually asking people to name claim, you should be the first damn person, not the last. That looks retarded and/or scummy to put yourself last.

I'm surprised at the rapidity with which these last votes are coming. I sure as hell hope this name claim theory works out. If it does, this game should be basically over, which seems a bit ridiculous to me.

[Sonicpulsar]

Your turn, smartass

Tracy McGrady

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I haven't made good with my promise to make a scummy list but it seems fairly moot at this point til we figure out the name claim stuff. At least a lot of what I was building has seemingly been thrown up in the air.

I'm keeping my

FOS Fletcher

up. I don't like that he was so quick to throw in a second vote and then just as quick to unvote. For me, I have to be fairly confident of my decision before I'll vote for someone and it then takes fairly compelling evidence to cause me to unvote and/or change my vote.

At this point, I guess I'm waiting for more name claiming. Or at least an explanation for why you (the 4 remaining people) are choosing not to. TCS, myself and Xdaamno all have.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I already kinda stated what I thought of IH's death but someone has since brought something I hadn't considered to the board (the existence of a doctor). Regardless, I'll restate/revise what I wrote earlier.

IH's death is interesting because he was the supposed mason partner target of HC. Unfortunately, HC and IH were unable to utilize the masonry due to HC's early death. The fact that no one argued or contradicted IH's claim to be the target of the masonry leads me to believe he's probably town. In fact, I'll go so far as to say most everyone was confident he was town before he was killed. The mafia had to know this fact too. I'm guessing they targetted IH because he was someone the town trusted to be town and wouldn't get lynched. But the mafia should have also realized that there's probably a doctor and that's when it gets into WIFOM territory. Anyways, I'm stating after the fact (probably not overly wise of me to do) that IH was probably town when we now know he was. But what does this imply?

Perhaps I can best answer that question but slapping down the list I said I'd make of scumminess. Keep in mind this is all as separate as I can make it (good luck me) from the all-stars theory. Things have changed but I'll go ahead and stick my neck out. Starting with most scummy.

1. Fletcher. As I've stated earlier, the relatively quick second vote on Xdaamno with nothing to go on but the theory of all-stars. Indicative of scumminess in my opinion.

2. TCS. His mass name claim suggestion coupled with him putting himself last makes me suspicious. Followed by his quick response of his name claim after my pointing this out almost makes me think he WANTED someone to point out he put himself last so that he could name claim early and look more innocent. Yet again, I'm venturing into WIFOM territory so I'll stop there.

3. Adam. I don't like your willingness to jump on a new vote of Xdaamno without discussing the mafia's kill. But I now realize you're betting on the all-stars theory. Read more at the bottom.

4. Xdaamno. I honestly don't see the connection with Xyzzy but in my experience, seeing connections can be very subjective. At least Xdaamno hasn't changed his playstyle which, by this point in the game, makes me think he's town. He's been on the burner enough times for me to think he would have tried to change to stay alive, he hasn't.

5. Inhim. You and I seem to think very, very differently but I'd now led to believe you are town, you just have a different playstyle or see things differently. I'm not entirely sure I can adequately explain why I don't think you're scummy than I have you, I just do.

6. Yogurt. Normally, I'd jump all over lurkers. At this point in the game, based on Days 1 and 2, I don't think Yogurt is scum. His posts, as of late, tend to be fairly useless but I no longer think his lurking is indicative of scum.

I'm most comfortable with my assessments of 1,2 and 6. 3-5 are all very close and I had a hard time actually placing them. Even as I read it now I think Adam should be lower. He seems to have been playing a good townie and picked up on the all-stars thing very quickly (sign of attentiveness and intelligence...or maybe craftiness). Anyways, I'll leave it as it is.

What are other people's thoughts?

Hmmm, someone mentioned earlier about the cop (if we have one, Shaq was an NPC cop killed before the game started) stating their investigation results. I'm thinking it'd probably be a good idea at this point. I'll have to think on it some more. I guess I'm just thinking out loud (or typing if you will).

[Sonicpulsar]

Fletcher, it's obvious that you should vote for who you think is the most scummy. But when you do it based on a theory that hasn't been worked out entirely yet (still waiting for a few name claims), it seems like you're jumping on a bandwagon too quickly. At least, it's not my playstyle and I'm coming to realize that I shouldn't expect everyone or anyone to play like I do and that I shouldn't make judgement calls based on it.

It just really makes me worry about how quicly the two of you voted for Xdaamno after Night 2. And I'm more inclined to not trust the second vote, the band wagoner if you will, than the original voter. But that's just me.

The fact that you're making logical responses and putting yourself out there a bit (you floated under my radar for most of Day 1) makes me less inclinded to believe you're scum but I'm not entirely sure who I believe is scummier than you at the moment.

[Sonicpulsar]

Inhim, I don't follow exactly why you think Adam's post is so incriminating. I agree that it's not on the up and up, but I'm not compelled to vote just yet. Just curious to why you are.

[Sonicpulsar]

Perhaps it's just a gut feeling at this point, but I'm not convinced in any way Yogurt is scum. He's just lurking or making useless posts.

Anyways, to get some discussion going, I'm going to

vote TCS

TCS has yet to post after my post listing people and Inhim's post where he states his willingness to possibly vote for TCS. I'd like to hear TCS's defense.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I assume everyone's been prodded.

I'm still not buying competely into the all-stars theory so I'm keeping my vote on TCS. I'm not convinced that Xdaamno is scum enough to warrant me hammering him. Although I must admit I'm infinitely interested to see if he's scum which would basically prove the theory.

Yogurt and Inhim, why haven't either of you dropped the hammer?

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, if he's mafia and I wake up dead, then that means I won't be waking up.

I don't really understand that statement.

At this point, I'm just waiting to hear what Inhim has to say. I'd also like the 3 people voting for Xdaamno to clearly and concisely state why they're voting for him

BEYOND

the all-stars theory (if that applies).

Perhaps I'm sounding wishy-washy or pleading but I'd like to convince myself of Xdaamno's guilt before

I

hammer. I'm not convinced at the moment.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm willing to bet that less than 5% of the games that I have ever played in on this site (which is a nice sum) have had safe claims provided for the scum.

I'm basing the following on the above statement. At this point, I just can't help my curiosity about the theory.

Unvote

Vote: Xdaamno

[Sonicpulsar]

Happy birthday Inhim!

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm guessing (really, I am) that the no deaths during the night either means a roleblocker or the doctor protected someone. Anyone want to role claim admitting as much? Or perhaps I should first ask if it'd be a wise idea to admit as much. I think it's fair to assume there's only one scum left and probably no SK or Vig since there have been no additional deaths.

I'll have to think more on the implications of people role-claiming and our chances of getting the last scum. Thoughts?

[Sonicpulsar]

As always, Yogurt continues to contribute a very extensive amount to the game. I can probably count on two fingers the number of posts he's made that are over a line long.

Anyways, I'm a vanilla townie. Your turn.

[Sonicpulsar]

Much like with Xdaamno, I'm fairly convinced now that Yogurt is either a crappy townie (not contributing much to the game) or scum. I'm never a fan of being a band wagoner, but I feel it's justified as per the above posts.

Vote: YogurtBandit

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't think their will be a Cop claim simply because the NPC Shaq was killed before the game started and it was stated he was a cop. Couple this with the fact that there was the obvioius all-stars vs non-all-stars and the cop would have been overpowered in my opinion (or OP imo if you will).

Unvote

After reading the claims against me, the fact that I actually believe Yogurt's claim as a roleblocker, and the fact that I didn't follow thru with the all-stars theory into Day 4 have given me a change of heart. In a game like this, there might be something to the fact that TCS's name claim was a replacement or whatever.

I can only think of 4 possibilities at the moment. Correct me if there are any other likely possibilities. 4 didn't come to me until after my analysis.

1. There's a Doctor who protected the victim. No Doctor has come forward as of this post.

2. The scum simply decided to not kill anyone during the night. Seems very unlikely.

3. I'm scum and was effectively roleblocked by Yogurt.

4. There is a doctor but the scum didn't kill anyone anyways. Also unlikely.

Analysis:

1. Assuming no doctor comes forth, I'll likely be lynched because it's the only explanation for the no death of Night 3 assuming possiblity 2 isn't true. This will then lead to a Night 4 with 5 people. Yogurt will likely be the target and since there's no doctor (as we're assuming for this analysis), his only hope will be to luckily roleblock the mafia player. Given the 25% of this, let's assume he guesses wrong and we're left with 4 people and no roleblocker. If we (well, you guys I guess) lynch a townie on Day 5, mafia wins. I smell a lot of "if" on that, but if you read the next paragraph, you'll see some explanation for why this might be the case.

2. and 4. The only reasons I can guess for scum not killing on Night 3 assuming I wasn't roleblocked and the as of yet unclaimed doctor didn't save someone, would be to force a numbers game. As it stands now, we're back to a even number of people during the Day (we shouldn't have had a modkill on Day 1 resulting in 9 people on Day 2). Any odd number during the day is bad for the mafia due to the fact that Day 5 (for this game) would end up with 2 townies and 1 mafia. Not a good ratio. Either townie has a 50% chance of casting the right vote to win the game. In other words, on Day 5, if a townie votes for the mafia, there's no way the mafia can cast the second vote to kill himself and the other townie knows this. Thus, Day 5 winds up being a 50% chance of mafia victory (assuming no power roles mess with the percentages).

3. The easiest and most logical explanation. I hold little hope for myself. Although it is interesting to think that the mafia guy had to assume there's at least a doctor and/or a roleblocker. I have to respect the confusion that could be caused by not killing someone when he's all alone simply to cast doubt on the person roleblocked. It would (and probably will) cause the person roleblocked to get lynched and the identity of the roleblocker to come forth (and/or possibly the doctor). A bit of a gamble but considering the 2 above scenarios (even or odd number of people during the day), not a bad strategy I suppose.

I'll have to think more on the implications on who I should vote for based on what I just wrote. I suppose I'll wait for feedback. It's kinda fun to be on the burner for once.

[Sonicpulsar]

No-lynching confirms nothing. If yogurt is lying scum, he can simply no-kill. We should just lynch sonic and then lynch yogurt if sonic isn't scum.

I really have to wonder about the fact that no one else has stepped up claiming roleblocker and no one has stated they're a cop or doctor. I find it hard to believe that the only power role in the game was a mason maker, short of some weird, uncommon one.

But, I've read a few games where it was a logical fallacy to assume anything about the actual power role makeup of a game so I'm going to try not to let this affect me too much.

I'm not entirely sure I can come up with a sufficient reason not to have myself lynched today. The only clear alternative would be to lynch Yogurt today and if he's a roleblocker, then lynch me. But that means lynching our roleblocker, which seems stupid. Unfortunately for me, I'm the litmus test for Yogurt's claim.

I guess I'll try and think of any good reason to vote any of the other 4 people. I'd like to hear from Fletcher, since he hasn't really contributed anything. Inhim has only made a couple of one or two line posts, but they've at least been logical.

I roleblocked Sonic Pulsar last night. Any docs wanna claim a protection, do it now, or lets Lynch SP. lynch me if you want, I will die to prove SP is lying.

Upon rereading the last page, I'm kinda confused by this. Lynching you would in no way prove I was lying. In fact, it'd only prove if you were lying or telling the truth. I mean, it'd lend credit to the idea that I was lying, but it wouldn't prove anything. As I stated before, scum could have easily not NKed (although I believe this to be unlikely).

Also upon rereading, I just noticed that the two people I asked to hear more from are the two people currently voting for me. Perhaps Adam has it right that one of you is scum.

FOS Fletcher and Inhim

[Sonicpulsar]

Sorry for the double posts.

Adam brought up a scenario I didn't mention earlier because I didn't think anyone else thought it was a strong possiblity, the possibility of there being 4 mafia at the beginning (thus 2 now).

Throughout the entire game, no one has acted like they really thought there were 4 mafia at the beginning. If we had, we would have been damn near lylo (assuming no power role interference) a long time ago. Look at Day 2: 9 people, 4 mafia. Day 3: 7 people, 3 mafia. No one thought it was a strong possiblity back then, I tend to think the same now.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'd love it if you gave some examples of where I've been vague. I honestly feel like I've been the exact opposite of vague and stated everything as clearly as I possibly could. I've detailed the scenarios I think are likely and what their likely outcomes would be, etc.

I'm waiting to hear back from the two guys who voted for me but have yet to make any posts with real content in them before I commit to something.

Saying that you think you will die if there's a no lynch because you feel like you're low on everyone's scum list seems....scummy to me. I think it's a good rule of thumb to not state what you think other's people views of yourself are, be you a scum or townie. It usually makes people look scummy.

I don't think no-lynch is a good idea.

Bah, rereading this post, I sound defensive.

[Sonicpulsar]

If no docs are cops claim, we Lynch Sonic.

If there are... hmm.

So wait, you can be a doctor and a cop at the same time? I'm confused...what if we have a cop who's a doctor? Does that count? Or do you have to be a doctor first?

Just kidding.

[Sonicpulsar]

I think what Adam is trying to say (I'm gonna put some words in his mouth here) is that HE thinks we should no-lynch, have YB roleblock me again and if everyone's still alive, then lynch me. If YB is still alive after Night, you'd lynch me under the assumption that I was roleblocked from killing YB.

The first fallacy in this argument (assuming I'm scum) is that we haven't discussed what would happen should I try to kill YB. Would it go down to when the PMs are sent? Does the roleblocker always have precedence? I honestly don't know, but from what I've read on a few games, "ties" like this are generally reduced to who sent in the PM first.

The second fallacy is simply that I'm not scum (but you need to think about the first fallacy for yourself) and when I'm roleblocked, nothing will happen (I'm vanilla). Since YB will be roleblocking me, it'd leave the perfect opportunity for the scum to kill YB. Unless, of course, there's a doctor, but no one has stepped up yet.

At the conclusion of Night 4, you wouldn't know if I was simply scum who got the PM in first or vanilla who got roleblocked. The only good thing is that you'd know if YB was telling the truth and that might change your view of me (for the positive or negative).

Sitting in your shoes, you cannot know for sure if I'm scum or not (thank you Dr. Obvious) so you have to look at both scenarios. Neither scenario is good for the town and both stem from the idea we'd no-lynch to gain information. The possibility of good info is there, it's just not likely. But I guess it could be better than a town-lynch now.

It's frustrating as hell to realize I'm in a situation where the seemingly best course of action is to lynch me for information when I know a scenario (reason) must exist for why no one was killed on Night 3.

The best I can come up with is that the mafia assumed there was either a roleblocker, a doctor, or both and he hoped with a no Night 3 kill, we'd land in this predicament of either lynching whoever was roleblocked or finding out who the doctor is and who the doctor protected.

Vote: Sonic Pulsar

Not a doc or roleblocker.

Sorry, but I don't consider that content, but definitions may vary. That's the only thing you've posted since Day 4 started besides the previous post.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm doing this because Fletcher is right. With a "silver platter," we can scarcely afford to not do this. Also, why in the heck would you try and kill YB if we no-lynched? It would show him to be either the roleblocker or a vanilla townie. With the first, we then lynch you. With the second, you're cleared. If you were mafia, you would kill someone else, thus showing that YB is not a roleblocker and getting him thus lynched. Your last post was not a good one, I feel it ignored a lot of logic, and I'm going to roll the dice.

I assume this was targetted at me. If we no-lynch and I'm the scum, it'd prove nothing about me after I killed YB (assuming that's possible). The best it would do would confirm that YB wasn't lying. You still wouldn't know if the mafia simply no killed or if I got roleblocked as scum. You'd be setting yourself up for losing YB at night, me during the day based on what you're saying, and another townie at night putting you down 3 townies. Not a good scenario.

I've listed all the logical reasons for why no one died last night.

1. I was roleblocked as scum.
2. Doctor protected the victim. No Doc has come forth.
3. No-kill from the mafia.

You did bring up a fourth option I didn't originally talk about that could possibly be very likely. Especially considering YB's latest few posts.

4. YB could be mafia AND a roleblocker.

It could explain his obvious lurking the entire game coupled with his latest posts. But it doesn't seem likely considering he's put himself out there now.

[Sonicpulsar]

Yeah, it was very unfortunate and disappointing to get roleblocked on Night 3. I couldn't decide who I wanted to kill more, Yogurt or TCS. I figured TCS would be the morely likely of the two to cause a lynch to come my way. Obviously I was wrong. I honestly did think about no killing on Night 3 just to mess with everyone. Turns out it wouldn't have mattered. But it also goes to show that if you lurk, you'll probably live longer than most.

It was also pretty crappy that the inadvertent screw up with the safe claim led to a third day lynch on the second mafia. It shouldn't have been so easy!

I couldn't think of a single good, logical reason to not lynch me on Day 4. I tried to think of anything and everything without seeming like I was trying too hard.

Good game all. Sorry Adam, I was scum all along.

Yogurt, why did you roleblock me? Did you honestly think I was scummiest person or simply because I was the only one calling you out on your lurking? Or something else.

[Sonicpulsar]

IH, that was quite possibly the easiest scum to call on Day 1 ever. Ever.