Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[spurgistan]

Seriously. At least I don't have to come in making crazy role-claims to get the heat off my back like last time I replaced. Well, I read through, and besides not finding any dumb things my former self said that require explanation (or anything he said, period) the only possible lead I got is MoS getting angry at Tornado for not admonishing him over the use of dice votes

[spurgistan]

Maybe a no-lynch isn't that bad at all, remember, if we lose one triumvirate, the power roles are all gone, as far as I understand the rules. IF that's mistaken, then disregard this post. If we lynch normal town today (which is the most likely result, as they should be the only ones not to claim trium) then the scum odds of hitting one of the trium goes from 1/9 to 1/8. Granted, the trium odds of hitting the scum are equal, for now, but at this stage of the game I would definitely say protecting those of us in the triumvirate is more important than killing the scum.

Vote: No Lynch

[spurgistan]

Sorry, by "those of us in the triumvirate" I mean "those of us [town-oriented roles] who are in the triumvirate." Or something thereabouts, poorly worded. No claim.

[spurgistan]

@Elmo: that's why I think a no-lynch might actually make sense here. Seeing as how the scum will automatically claim triumvirate, we're going to lynch a townie (who presumably wouldn't claim triumvirate, and these townies are the town's potential power roles, so by lynching town, I feel like we're lynching power roles. And yes, we should claim investigations / protections tomorrow.

[spurgistan]

I'm just wondering why anybody would claim vanilla, given that they could conveniently claim an unlynchable role. Vanilla claimers are not confirmed town, but no WIFOM, I couldn't understand scum under duress claiming vanilla when those are the only players we can safely lynch.

[spurgistan]

MIztef's last post sums up my feelings at this moment. Also, I feel that I may have been finally talked out of a no-lynch for today. Thanks for bringing me to my senses, town.

Unvote: NoLynch

[spurgistan]

A perfunctory

FoMS: spurgistan

, because I was planning to add him to my list of suspects (as third) but had forgotten, and his latest post reminded me why.

Can I ask what that is?

[spurgistan]

So if we mass-claim, there are almost definitely going to be 6 claiming vanilla, and 6 claiming triumvirate, unless the scum get cheeky (And I think this is a decent example of a WIFOM argument, whoever thought I might not have it right - if a mafia can claim triumvirate, he can be reasonably certain he won't be lynched for a day or two, since we should be needing the power roles for at least that long. Given that this is therefore a choice between two possible claims in which one (triumvirate) is clearly more beneficial to the scum-player, the argument that mafia would claim vanilla because the town expects them to claim triumvirate is a WIFOM argument. Yes?) and while this would help the trium give town power roles and the townies to then use these power roles against scummers, the scum would know who all our power roles are, therefore being able to concentrate on them.

Also,this game seems to be set up to dissuade us from mass-claiming. The power roles can be public about their investigations without claiming and losing those roles when they are night-killed. And while mass-claiming saves us the possibility of lynching triumvirate and losing all the power roles for the game, so does the no-lynch.

[spurgistan]

Thought I laid out my argument against a mass-claim fairly well, but I'll go along with it if it comes to pass. Just seems like this set-up is just about the least conducive to a mass0claim there is.

[spurgistan]

Strange, that link doesn't go to the article, but there is a Wiki on Lynch all Liars. Huh.

Yes. Once we get to mass-claiming, if you're a vanilla, claim vanilla. If you're a triumvirate, claim triumvirate. No matter what you think, we have three people trying to fool us already, we don't need anybody else. If we can believe 75% of the claims, well, that's how we win. And, of course if you're a mafia... be creative.

[spurgistan]

Me. Still thinking. I'm worried about the apparent lack of actually working it out, although it might be a good idea.

Should I post a full working out so far? It lets the scum know what the best moves are, but it also helps us understand what may be about to happen.

It's also possible the scum have already discussed trying to claim pre-game. If you're paranoid, you might say they're fully worked out it's bad for the town and are trying to get us to do it. So basically I want it to be watertight before we out the power roles.

SSF / MoS: You're smart, how far have you thought this through?

Didn't we start with day...how would scum have had a chance to talk to each other already? I assumed the scum had not been able to strategize yet...

They had four days from PMs being sent out until day 1 start, during which time they could talk.

[spurgistan]

It seems that I can't explain in detail why I think massclaim is flawed without more or less telling the scum how to claim if we end up claiming, but I'll try to be vague and precise, simultaneously. I may end up giving more clues to the scum than I intend, but seeing as how I'm still holding out hope we don't, I'll face that eventuality. Anyways, the scum should be smarter than me, or else this game should be an easy win for the town.

Essentially, if we lynch day 1, we will be lynching from the vanilla pool, as we should every day, at least until we get some successful investigations/damning evidence against one of the trium-claiming scum. Night 1, the town should lose the triumvirate responsible for either the role-block, doctor, or cop powers (I consider calling these "power roles" to be misleading, as anybody can have that power, it's just that the particular triumvirate controls it's dispensation) although the player that gets the doc role has somewhere from 1/3 to 1/6 odds of protecting the targeted trium.

Therefore, day 2 we will be at either (trium-townie-scum) 2-6-2 or 3-6-2 if we lynch town-scum, or 2-5-3 or 3-5-3 in the case we lynch vanilla town. Of these, the most likely day 2 is with 2-5-3 with a missed protection and a lynch of one of the vanilla townies. Moreover, we will have lost access to a power role for the game. Furthermore, if the scum kill the doc, we face the possibility of losing the triumvirate after 3 nights. Granted, this would expose any scum who claimed triumvirate, but rendering the town blind and defenseless to the scum in their midst.

[spurgistan]

well, don't the mafia have to guess what the other mafia will claim? Unless they planned this out beforehand, they basically have to guess which claim is the correct one...

oh... wait... they'll see other claims before theirs... hmmm... is it possible to do encrypted claims, so we each claim in an encrypted message, then give the decrypt key after everyone has posted their "claim"?

In a word,

Maybe, but it's really not cool Ok, that was more than a word. But still.

In a non-ethics-and-cipher related point, the scum can very easily avoid all claiming the same thing by waiting to see what the other scum have claimed. Even a cipher may not work perfectly in this regard, as the thread indicates.

[spurgistan]

I'll massclaim, but I refuse to participate in an encrypted one.

[spurgistan]

OK. Can we get back to playing Mafia, now? If so,

Vote: Faerie

for all the non-logic ("deserve to lose", etc.) in the above posts.

[spurgistan]

Dude, faerie, if every scum claims trium in the normal game, we should be set, going on the logic set forth in the massclaim.

Confirm Vote

[spurgistan]

I suppose one thing in Faerie's favor is that he liked the idea of an encrypted mass-claim, which while unethical, does more or less break the game for the town. However, if he was less than enthused about the odds of scum winning the game on their own, maybe he wanted to try and get lucky? I still think he's the lynch for today.

[spurgistan]

Wut?

[spurgistan]

Could we please lynch FaerieLord?

[spurgistan]

Damn.

[spurgistan]

We could lynch Thin_Man now.

That would make me happy.

retarded children are happy too, but like you, it is only via ignorance of their surroundings.

Cute. However, I, like everybody else here, is rather blissfully ignorant of you, as you've only posted 5 times despite being here a month.

[spurgistan]

-1.

Fairly sure that FaerieLord is town.

Feel free to explain why, or how you know.

[spurgistan]

Sorry about missing this.

spurgistan: Why do you feel Faerielord's "non-logic" is worth a vote?

I felt that FL was worth a vote because he was the most vocal proponent of the massclaim by far, even after people had already a) stated the best way for mafia to claim. which is somewhat scummy in and of itself, although it did come up sort of naturally in the discussion and b) had been proven (by me) that this game set-up was designed to dissuade us from doing a massclaim. Essentially, I agree with Rishi that FL was something of a lightweight. The thing is, he has a special interest in saying that. However, I'll

Unvote

just to let Rishi go.