Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[iamausername]

Hey, everyone, I'll be replacing farside. I've given the game a sort of semi-skimmed readthrough already, and I'm pretty happy with my vote where it is at the moment.

LaptopGun, is there any particular reason that you're still voting for a claimed doctor?

I'll give the game a more detailed read before deadline, but for now, if you guys have any concerns about my predecessor that you'd like me to address, I'll give it a try, though I can't guarantee that I'll know what she was thinking.

[iamausername]

Well, Jesse's D1 soft claim was really dumb, but I can definitely buy that a cop with a N0 guilty result would be bursting for an opportunity to claim it, especially a newbie. And how things have played out since then seems to support the claim.

However, Laptop Gun looks pretty dodgy to me. Whether or not you believe the claim, lynching a claimed doc is just not a good play. I think it will definitely be worth pursuing the possibility that he is SK or Godfather further down the line, but not today, especially with deadline looming. I'm thinking SK, based on Post 131, which seems like a possible Freudian slip.

dahill is still number one on my scumlist - both the players he replaced did pretty much nothing to aid the town, and dahill hasn't done much better. And I think it's definitely worth noting that Melody Man and dahill both voted for kabenon and Spacecase/Rigel respectively only after those wagons had a fair bit of weight behind them, without really giving any reasons of their own. Smacks of scum taking the easy option and following the herd to me.

But since it's looking like the deadline is forcing a choice between Spacecase and Rigel at this point, I'm stating an intention to vote for Spacecase if necessary. I'm not completely sold on his guilt, but that case definitely seems to have a much better foundation than Rigel's, which seems like it's just blowing a minor mistake way out of proportion.

[iamausername]

The Fonz is right.

Unvote, Vote: Spacecase

.

[iamausername]

Well, I pretty much agree that there was something off in his sudden switch on kabenon, and he does seem to be a chronic lurk-in-plain-sighter, posting often enough to keep himself in the game, but with little to no actual content. And, like I said, I just don't think there's a good case against Rigel.

I realise the massive irony of my saying this after my arguments against dahill, but if I had any great reasons of my own to vote Spacecase, then I wouldn't only be doing it as a necessary tie-breaker.

[iamausername]

Gah. I'm dead tonight, so I might as well claim my innocent result. Any objections?

Well, there is a possibility that we have a second doc, but I don't think it's worth keeping it to yourself banking on that chance.

---

I'll

Vote: dahill1

for now, pending possible clearance from Cipher.

Everything I said yesterday still applies, among other things. He (or one of his predecessors) wasn't on either scum lynch, but

was

on the one mislynch so far. In general, his reaction to the Spacecase wagon yesterday seems extremely scummy; he got on it early in the day, when it looked like the only option, then changed his vote to Phate (now confirmed town) once a wagon started to form there, after much fanning of the flames of suspicion on his part. Seemed like he was really trying to find someone else to lynch instead of his scumbuddy. When the Rigel/Spacecase choice is forced by deadline he picks Rigel, restating everyone else's reasons.

There's also a possible slip in Post 637, where he refers to LaptopGun as "confirmed townie" - Obviously, if dahill is mafia, he'd know that LTG wasn't the godfather, and it seems from his other posts around that time that he didn't realise at the time that the SK would investigate as innocent, although way later, after people point this out, he claims that he just "forgot" to mention this possibility. (Post 667)

Then in Post 820 he attacks me because "<I> say <I'm> going to either vote for SC or Rigel (which both have a fair number of people on their wagons)" without giving reasons of my own, which a) is not true; I pretty clearly stated that I

wasn't

going to vote for Rigel and b) I was obviously doing because of the deadline, and his very next post clearly shows that he understands this necessity.

[iamausername]

I'll

Vote: dahill1

for now, pending possible clearance from Cipher.

Everything I said yesterday still applies, among other things. He (or one of his predecessors) wasn't on either scum lynch, but

was

on the one mislynch so far. In general, his reaction to the Spacecase wagon yesterday seems extremely scummy; he got on it early in the day, when it looked like the only option, then changed his vote to Phate (now confirmed town) once a wagon started to form there, after much fanning of the flames of suspicion on his part. Seemed like he was really trying to find someone else to lynch instead of his scumbuddy. When the Rigel/Spacecase choice is forced by deadline he picks Rigel, restating everyone else's reasons.

well i can't say anything for my predecessors, but i thought that Rigel was the better case rather than Spacecase yesterday. your reason for me being suspicious for voting Phate is weak. yes, he is now confirmed town, but how was i, or anybody else supposed to know that. you're trying to put suspicion on me for pushing for a Phate lynch. i admit i was, because i thought he was pretty scummy at the time. of course, we now know he was telling the truth.

It's not the fact that you pushed a Phate lynch that makes you suspicious, so much as the

way

you were pushing it, strongly encouraging others to find reasons to suspect him, but not actually applying your own vote until a couple of others had.

There's also a possible slip in Post 637, where he refers to LaptopGun as "confirmed townie" - Obviously, if dahill is mafia, he'd know that LTG wasn't the godfather, and it seems from his other posts around that time that he didn't realise at the time that the SK would investigate as innocent, although way later, after people point this out, he claims that he just "forgot" to mention this possibility. (Post 667)

i only said confirmed town at the time because Cipher got an innocent on him. the possibilities of GF and SK had indeed slipped my mind.

Well, not much point arguing further about whether or not this was a meaningful slip.

Then in Post 820 he attacks me because "<I> say <I'm> going to either vote for SC or Rigel (which both have a fair number of people on their wagons)" without giving reasons of my own, which a) is not true; I pretty clearly stated that I

wasn't

going to vote for Rigel and b) I was obviously doing because of the deadline, and his very next post clearly shows that he understands this necessity.

i knew you were doing it because of the deadline! the point i was trying to make was that it's hard to find reasons of your own for lynching someone when someone else already makes a compelling case against them, and you agree with it. am i not allowed to agree?

OK, this makes sense, I'd just misunderstood your intentions here. Although I think that my inability to come up with reasons of my own for a deadline-forced tiebreaker vote is a little different to you and your predecessors doing it consistently through the whole game.

---

Hadn't considered the fact that a second doc would most likely have protected Phate, so yeah, I'd say definitely give us your result, Cipher.

[iamausername]

It's not the fact that you pushed a Phate lynch that makes you suspicious, so much as the

way

you were pushing it, strongly encouraging others to find reasons to suspect him, but not actually applying your own vote until a couple of others had.

what? i believe what happened was the opposite of that
i voted after a few others had,

then

i started pushing harder for it

OK, here's a few quotes from dahill1, all from before he decided to vote for Phate:

so who do you think would be more likely to be scum? spacecase or phate? or possibly both?

(To Cipher, after he revealed suspicions of Phate)

rigel, to please you i'll make a list

Spacecase: scummy, flip-flopped on the kab vote (already mentioned)

Phate: scummy, didn't know cipher claimed cop, also a "Bizarro Spacecase" as Cipher put it, changed opinion quickly on kab as well just like spacecase
(possible scumbuddies?)

so far these are the people i think are the most scummy

i didn't say its scumtell, but it does make you a little suspicious

(This is about his suspicion of Phate for "not knowing Cipher claimed cop".)

again, not under suspicion, but suspicious. don't you agree that not knowing who is cop and who he has confirmed as townies is a little sketchy. of course, he could have just missed it while reading in which case he should do a reread

(Same thing again. Also, I'd love to know just what exactly the distinction is between "under suspicion" and "suspicious".)

you're right we should focus attention where necessary, but i think right now that spacecase probably will be scum, and my only other suspicion is phate. we should lynch either phate or spacecase, and then depending on their role, look back on connections, etc.

phate is starting to look like a good vote for me, if the SC wagon is slowing down
i'm also sort of getting cold feet about SC and the two people voting for phate so far are the cop and confirmed townie

Fun facts: dahill made 14 other posts between the first quote here and his eventual Phate vote. Of these, about half dealt with explaining himself for his failure to vote Cipher when apparently believing him to have lied about being a cop, and most of the rest involved weakly going along with the Spacecase wagon, with a couple of posts decrying lurking behaviour for good measure.

[iamausername]

I know the accusation has been thrown around a lot, but do you think that means hes the serial killer? Cause that's what I'm thinking right now with those two quotes.

No, I specifically think he's a mafia goon. I think

you're

the SK, keep up.

Seriously, as far as his apparent willingness to lynch Spacecase goes, I think it was distancing, pure and simple. He was on the Spacecase wagon early in the day, when I don't think there was any real chance it would actually lead to a lynch. And once he'd started saying he agreed with the Spacecase wagon, he couldn't just do a sudden 180 on that, he had to make it look like he was gradually shifting to Phate, which I think is what you're seeing in those last two quotes. It's been mentioned before, but the last quote is particularly suspicious - "phate is starting to look like a good vote for me, if the SC wagon is slowing down". Why would the fact that Spacecase's wagon was slowing down make him

less

likely to be scum?

[iamausername]

Hey, so, after MadCrawdad's death, we know we have exactly one mason left alive. Would it be useful for him to claim at this point? We're at 7:2:1 right now, so it wouldn't be a great gambit for a scumbag to counterclaim, since that would essentially lead to their certain death with only a 50/50 chance of also getting us to make a mislynch of what is, at this point, basically a vanilla townie.

On the other hand, if our mason stays quiet for a couple of days, we could end up in a lylo situation, at which point it would be a much more useful fakeclaim for the scum, since one mislynch is all they need.

Maybe I'm missing something obvious, but I can't really see any advantage to our mason NOT claiming at this point. Normally we want our power roles to stay quiet so they can keep using their powers, but claiming is the only 'power' a lone mason has left, and I think it would be best used as soon as possible.

Thoughts?

[iamausername]

Since we know we have precisely one, it's a suicidal fakeclaim unless it's LyLo

, and there's also the possibility that the mason dies between now and then anyway.

This is exactly why I was thinking the mason should claim today; the scum won't fakeclaim today, because it would be suicide, so if the real mason claims today, it won't be open as a fakeclaim for the scum tomorrow.

Worst case scenario, with a mislynch today, and two townies NKed tonight, we'd be down to 4:2:1 tomorrow, which looks like lylo to me. (I'm not completely certain of this; the SK makes it complicated to work out for sure.)

I certainly see the wisdom in holding off for a while, for the same reason Cipher's keeping his investigation to himself right now, but in both cases, it still looks to me like it's in our interest to have them claim at some point today.

[iamausername]

Wesaq was voting for Spacecase at the end of day 1, which I consider possible distancing.

Just checked this, because I thought I'd have noticed when I was looking into dahill earlier - the only person either of dahill's predeccessors voted for in their six collective total posts was kabenon. Spacecase was voting for Wesaq at the end of day 1, not the other way round. Still possible distancing, of course.

[iamausername]

Mod

: I believe Shteven also has a vote on dahill right now.

I've recently completed a reread of the game and I definitely have a much better handle on the players now, so here's how my thoughts stand on the possible scumbags. Thanks, Shteven, for the handy list.

Cipher - claimed cop
LaptopGun - investigated town/SK
Rigel - investigated town/SK
vollkan - Possibly investigated but unknown,

claimed mason

Pool of unknowns:
The Fonz

LoudmouthLee

armlx

Oman
Shteven
dahill1
iamausername

That leaves two scum in five possible candidates (eliminating myself, obviously). I'm liking those odds.

In order of scumminess:

---

1. Oman

- Surprised to realise on reread just how much active lurking he's done as the game's gone on. A lot of posts like #515, #562, #751, stating facts about the events and setup of the game, which creates the illusion of posting content, without actually providing anything substantial.

He also hopped on the kabenon wagon D2 without ever making a case, at all. It was just "Justin convinced me", and that's it, from that point on, "Kabenon is scum".

Then there's Post #376, where he proposes the brilliant plan of lynching anyone our dead cop Justin might have been mildly suspicious of, because obviously this means he had a guilty result on them. This is especially scummy looking now that I know that all the players that would be lynched under this scheme are pro-town. Obviously, the rest of you don't have this assurance, since I'm one of them, but I think Oman's plan is pretty inherently scummy regardless of the players involved.

As far as the Spacecase wagon goes (in addition to the points Shteven mentioned), I think Post #444 is pretty significant, given that it comes just a few posts after Oman put a vote on Spacecase. Why do that if you're "not sold on spacecase lynch"? Seems like he's trying to have it both ways; looking townie by being part of the wagon if Spacecase gets lynched, but also giving himself an out if he decides to drop all suspicion on Spacecase if a better wagon crops up by saying he was never really sure of the case in the first place. I'm surprised no one picked up on this post at the time, actually.

So, yeah.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

.

---

2. dahill

- I've already covered my reasoning on this. He's dropped a place in the rankings, but I still think the case against him is pretty strong, just not quite as strong as the one on Oman.

---

3. armlx

- Four different players to look at here, although armlx hasn't done anything yet, and Perfectiondoesnotexist didn't do anything either. Somestrangeflea did quite a few things, but none of them are particularly noteworthy. He was on the kabwagon D2, but his reasoning seems fairly solid for that stage of the game. So I'm going to concentrate on LML.

On replacing in, he posted while reading through, he had skepticism of Jesse/Cipher's cop claim, which I don't think was completely unreasonable at that stage, and votes farside/me for... random voting Six Aces at the start of the game, and being one of Justin's suspects D2. And this post, which actually constitutes a reasonable argument, although I don't think it indicates scumminess on my/farside's part unless Cipher is my scumpartner.

And that's the only things he saw fit to comment on; no discussion of the major wagon of the day, which just so happens to have been on a scum player. In fact, I don't think he even acknowledged the existence of the Spacecase wagon in any of his posts, which seems extremely suspicious.

He then gets the Rigel wagon started, citing a link between Rigel and farside/myself which is now proven to not exist unless Cipher is a lying SK/townie who happened to get lucky on Six Aces. Not likely.

A lot of this is a pretty poor, OMGUSy case, I know. This is because I think Oman or dahill are by far the scummiest of the five. But his total lack of discussion of Spacecase is definitely worth looking into.

---

4. The Fonz

- One thing I'll say against him is that he's been pretty passive through this game. Fun fact: Fonzie has made exactly four votes in this game so far. One was a D1 random vote, which doesn't really count, and the rest were one vote each day for that day's eventual lynch.

As far as his defense of Spacecase goes, I don't see it as particularly scummy. He started out saying Space's sudden 180 on kab wasn't that scummy, since he didn't stand to gain anything from it as scum, because kab was clearly going to be lynched either way. Perfectly true. Later, when the case on Spacecase became more about his response to the original votes than his hammer on kab, Fonz joined the wagon. Could be scum trying to derail the wagon on his buddy, then bussing when it became obvious this wasn't going to happen, but it reads more to me as townie becoming more convinced by the case as the evidence built up.

I think his passive, cautious play, going along with general public opinion on the lynches and not drawing attention to himself by going after someone who was a less popular candidate makes him much more likely as SK than mafia.

---

5. Shteven

- I don't have anything on him besides the "How can people read Rigel's last post and not be voting Spacecase?" post that earned so much suspicion yesterday. For lack of any other evidence against him, I'm inclined to believe his defense that it was just a poor choice of words.

[iamausername]

Damn I keep forgetting about this.

Are there any specific questions that require answering? By me of course.

I'd say there's a couple, yeah.

[iamausername]

He's suspicious by process of elimination.

I don't imagine this will get a proper answer either, but nonetheless: what is it about the other players that caused you to eliminate them from your suspicions, but not me?

Armlx: Ok, I understand that username is less scumy than Oman, but why is he more scummy than say, the Fonz (arbitrarily selected player)?

I don't believe this was arbitrary at all. You have six reasonable options, as established, and of those six, Oman/dahill/iamausername would make no sense in context, armlx isn't going to point at himself as suspicious, which leaves either yourself or The Fonz, and I'm pretty sure you'd have reason to be biased about that choice. LYNCH ALL LIAHS!

[iamausername]

If I'm not given sufficient time to arm myself with what little knowledge that I can gain from reading the thread, I can't very well claim something that you can either confirm or refute, now can I?

Wow,

confirm vote: dcorbe

. What knowledge from the thread could you possibly need to arm yourself with unless you're planning to lie about your role?

I really don't understand why anyone is getting on armlx's case for pushing for a claim in this situation.

[iamausername]

Uh, dcorbe replaced Oman, not LML.

[iamausername]

kabenon007 - 8 (vollkan, Justin Playfair,

Oman, MelodyMan23

, MadCrawdad,

somestrangeflea

, Jesse Gunn,

Spacecase

)

It also looks scum-driven when scum are on it, and there's at least two of them here.

[iamausername]

I don't think we should lynch him if he's the SK, which I think is probably true. He'll be killed off by the mafia, and has a decent chance of hitting mafia with his kill. Of course, if we do succeed in lynching a member of the mafia today, then that's going to hurt his chances of killing mafia, but look at the number of townies who are going to be killed tonight:

Lynch the SK:

mafia kills a town role.
7 alive, 2 scum.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch town.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 2 mafia; or 6 alive 1 mafia.

Lynch Anyone else:

Lynch Mafia.
Mafia will kill the SK
SK will kill either a town role, or the mafia.
6 alive, 1 mafia; or town victory.

Lynching mafia has a much higher value than lynching the SK. Rushing this choice through isn't in the best interests of the town. I'd like to hear more opinions on this before we lynch.

Your numbers are off; there are ten alive right now, so the numbers of living players in each scenario need to go up by one.

And I think it's entirely possible that dcorbe is lying mafia, and I

really

don't think we should be blindly assuming that the mafia will kill him tonight if he is telling the truth.
One thing we can be pretty sure of is that dcorbe is NOT pro-town, and that seems like a pretty damn good reason to lynch him to me.

[iamausername]

Also, a small response:

And I think it's entirely possible that dcorbe is lying mafia, and I really don't think we should be blindly assuming that the mafia will kill him tonight if he is telling the truth.

I actually had the full possibilities for mafia not killing the SK, but decided that it would be better to leave that out - I was trying to create the impression that it was essential for the mafia to kill the SK. Didn't work, and the SK wasn't who it was claimed to be, but that was my reasoning there.

Ah, sorry for not picking up on that then. I had figured that vollkan was laying down a trap and kept quiet about that, but it didn't occur to me that anyone might go further with it once dcorbe had claimed SK.

This post still covers my thoughts on everyone fairly well, but I'm going to go back and take a close look at everyone's interactions with Oman/dcorbe now that he's confirmed scum.

[iamausername]

My list of Probable townies: Volkan, armix, Rigel (these should be obvious)

Rigel's a definite townie, and also dead. And why is armlx obviously town?

[iamausername]

Right, I've looked through the four possible mafiates' posts individually to look for anything suspicious specifically relating to Oman/dcorbe, and didn't find anything much, so I'm going to fall back on old thoughts and

Vote: dahill

. See the start of D4 for reasoning. And also, process of elimination:

I found armlx (mostly his predecessor LML, really) reasonably suspicious yesterday, but his early and well reasoned Oman vote and persistance on dcorbe look pretty pro-town.
Shteven was a bit wishy-washy on Oman/dcorbe yesterday, but I've read him as pretty solidly pro-town throughout the game.
The Fonz looks way more likely as SK than mafia. I'm less sure about this than I am about dahill, because LTG also looks fairly possible as SK, so he doesn't get my vote today.
Everyone else is cleared of mafia-affiliation, one way or another.

[iamausername]

iam's auto vote farside

This is obviously a mistake, but I'm not entirely sure what you actually meant to say.

[iamausername]

however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so

vote The Fonz

Know who had an even bigger wagon than The Fonz?

dahill

.

Seriously though, Fonz is the best lynch for today if the rest of you aren't going to go for dahill. Not like it makes a difference which scum we hit today.

[iamausername]

If we lynch either scum today and town tomorrow, we'll end up in that situation whoever the particular players concerned are. What's your point?

[iamausername]

I'd vote for dahil or Fonz but I dont want to vote then disappear. That could leave the wagon open to be hijacked.

Wagons can't be hijacked if they're on scum. You should've voted dahill before you left so we wouldn't be stuck here waiting.

[iamausername]

My initial thoughts would be Fonz as SK and armlx as mafia, but this is definitely going to need some thorough rereading.

[iamausername]

*And crosskills are less likely when you have a confirmed innocent.

Not in this case, I don't think. If we mislynch today, the two scum players will pose a far greater threat to each other than we do to either of them, so I'd figure it would be in their interest to go after each other rather than take out the confirmed innocent.

[iamausername]

It's pretty much just carrying over my reads from previous days; I thought the SK was either LTG or The Fonz yesterday, and it's clearly not LTG, so...
And armlx over Shteven as mafia is mostly based on armlx's predecessor LML trying to derail the Spacecase wagon on D3.

Right now I'd say:
1. The Fonz
2. armlx
3. Shteven

But I'll make a more substantial post after I've done some more rereading, hopefully by the end of today, and give a more considered ordering then, which may well be totally different from this one.

[iamausername]

Here's my not particularly well organised thoughts from reading through each player one more time.

armlx (and predecessors)

D1 - Not a lot to look at, thanks to the cop claim insta-lynch. Votes Six Aces after the hammer was already dropped.

D2 - Voted kabenon after 5 others already had, without a great deal of reasoning given. The reasoning that was there seems fairly solid, but yeah, that's definitely adding some points in the 'mafia' column.

D3 - Posts some Spacecase suspicion, but it's only after quite a few others already have, and doesn't bring up any new points. No vote. ssf drops out. pdne steps in, does nothing, drops out. LML steps in. Doesn't believe Jesse/Cipher's cop claim, votes farside/me for some extremely weak reasons for this stage of the game. Completely ignores the major wagon of the day, which happens to be on scum. Swaps to Rigel for, admittedly, pretty valid reasons.

D4 - armlx steps in. Goes after Oman hard, almost to a ridiculous level. "I could tell that Oman needed to die before D1 was over even." Seriously? On the surface, this looks pretty good armlx not being mafia, but I'm seeing a possibility that armlx figured he'd replaced into something of a tight spot and decided that bussing Oman was necessary to make up for his predecessors' actions, even though it would leave him without any more living partners.

D5 - Kicked off with a vote on me, then switched over to dahill without actually offering any explanation at all. He'd stated previously that he thought dahill was SK (also without explanation). Absolutely looks like scum going for the easy lynch (and maybe hoping to take out the other scumgroup, too).

Yeah, I'm definitely calling armlx as mafia.

---

The Fonz

D1 - Again, not a lot to go on, thanks Jesse. "I usually random NK as scum for precisely the reason that town is likely to tie themselves in WIFOMy knots wondering who had motive to do it." And an unknown showed up dead N0. COINCIDENCE???

D2 - His vote on kabenon looks more like a 'policy lynch' than earnest belief that kabenon was scum. Don't like it. (It was also after the hammer had already been dropped, but Fonz didn't appear to be aware of this at the time).

D3 - Took a long time to get on the Spacecase wagon, but this was mostly because I think he was exploring other avenues more than I've previously given him credit for, I think. Also led the charge on dahill for some issues that I picked up on later, which I'm reading as pro-town even if it turned out to be a bad lead.

D4 - Ah, I miss D4, when everybody apparently realised simultaneously that Oman was obvscum. Good times. The Fonz was the third on that wagon, but brought up new points, and also posted reasonable cases on dahill and armlx at the same time. Looking pretty good.
I think the reaction to dcorbe's SK claim is a very useful thing to look at in trying to finger the real SK. All that The Fonz has to say about it is this: "It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum." Possible SK motivation: he knows we're lynching mafia, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Possible townie motivation: He knows we're lynching mafia or SK, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Yeah, pretty much a null tell.

D5 - Defends himself well against Shteven's attacks, although I think he is quite blatantly claiming more credit for the Oman wagon than he actually deserves. His vote on dahill was totally justified.

One thing I think is worth mentioning, which was a big part of why I previously supported the suggestion of Fonz as SK, is that (besides a random vote at the start of the game), Fonz has NEVER voted for a player who wasn't eventually lynched that day. This kind of lends weight to the idea that he's been "echoing generic townie sentiments", as Shteven put it. However, I think he did make more cases of his own than I remembered on D3, at least, just none of them came with votes.

---

Shteven

D1 - Still not a lot worth mentioning on this day. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this lynch". I'll get back to that.

D2 - Vote on farside for possible role-fishing - fair enough, I'd probably find that suspicious too if I didn't know farside was innocent. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this lynch". Also tries to urge people to look at other suspects than kabenon, without actually putting forward any cases himself, until pushed to do so.

D3 - First vote on Spacecase, although he wasn't the first to point out Spacecase's scummy behaviour. Still, it's good, decisive action, looking townie. But then, later, another post urging people to look at other suspects than Spacecase, without putting forward any suggestions himself, and after he's said things like "Spacecase is scum, get to it folks." and "As for spacecase, I'm still pretty certain he's scum."
Starts planting his seeds of suspicion on Fonz here. He backs away from it when Fonz defends himself well, but then keeps coming back to it, which is not sitting well with me. It just doesn't feel like completely honest scumhunting.
"How can people read Rigel's last post and not be voting Spacecase? It's about that time... " We've been over this over and over, but yes, it's scummy. I wrote it off when Spacecase flipped mafia, because I was thinking of it as scum trying to push a lynch on an innocent, but I suppose it also fits the bill of SK trying to push a lynch on

anyone

.

D4 - Early vote on dahill, which looks like it conflicts with all his attempts to distance himself from that wagon recently. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this wagon." Sounds strangely familiar, somehow. He'd also like to urge people to consider suspects other than Oman, surprisingly, although to be fair, he does actually make a case on armlx himself. It's a pretty weak case, but still, that's progress of a sort.

Reactions to dcorbe's SK claim could be a good look, as I said before, and there's a lot more here than there was with The Fonz. "Who benefits the most by killing the SK? The mafia." I don't think this was true at the time (See vollkan's Post #1021), but as SK, it would certainly benefit Shteven to convince us that it was.

D5 - "Well, first scum wagon I wasn't on in this game so far. At least not on it in its final state." HEY EVERYBODY LOOK HOW GOOD I'VE BEEN AT CATCHING SCUM! Votes dahill without any reasoning, and is now trying desperately to distance himself from that wagon. I'm looking at his case on The Fonz, and I'm not seeing a lot of points that aren't either completely unsubstanciated, or equally applicable to Shteven himself.

---

I'll make a more substantial post after I've done some more rereading, hopefully by the end of today, and give a more considered ordering then, which

may well be totally different from this one.

Yep.

1. armlx
2. Shteven
3. The Fonz

armlx at #1 because I can't see either of the others as mafia, while I can still see some possibilty of Fonz as SK, though I'm definitely leaning more towards Shteven on that.

armlx points list updated:

Shteven- 8 points (3 from armlx, 3 from Fonz, 2 from username)
Armlx- 6 points (2 from Fonz, 3 from username, 1 from Shteven)
Fonz- 5 Points (3 from Shteven, 1 from username, 1 from armlx)
Username- 5 points (2 from Armlx, 2 from Shteven, 1 from Fonz)

Would definitely like to hear some thoughts from vollkan at this point.

[iamausername]

Not really. The first two votes on him were from yourself and armlx, both of whom were fellow suspects, and had reason to push an oman wagon to save yourselves.

Which applies equally to you.

I place a third vote, at a point when I could, if i were scum, quite easily have come up with a dahill case, and put the two of them level. We then have dahill piling on the post after mine, and no-one else is ever a candidate. That's why I think my vote is significant.

Except dahill kind of piled onto the wagon before your vote, albeit without a vote of his own (which I previously took to be scum dahill unsure about whether he definitely wanted to bus his last buddy, but since he turned up town, it looks like he genuinely did just forget to vote.) And mine and armlx's points combined made a pretty strong case already, I hardly think that lynch had no chance of going through without your arguments.

In an unfortunately WIFOM thought, Username making a strong case for armlx as mafia makes me wonder if he's the SK. It would be another case of a self-fulfilling prophecy and so I can't put much weight on it, but if he was then he'd have set up both a mafia lynch and an easy mislynch tommorow on either myself or the fonz. I mention this merely for completeness, and as I seem to be highest on points right now (thus risking being silenced by lynch). Again, username as town has every reason to hunt for mafia so it is much more of a null tell.

I don't know why you even bothered posting this, it's such a null tell.

Moreover, let's bear in mind that two of the unconfirmeds are scum - so half of the rankings are basically just created by self-interested parties. That's hardly a reliable guide for separating out the scummy from the less scummy, is it?

There's also the fact that even with the two townies, assigning it as 3 points, 2 points, 1 point doesn't give a completely accurate picture of their opinions, since it doesn't account for disparity in the gaps between each player - for instance, I'm a lot more sure that armlx is more likely scum than Shteven than I am that Shteven is more likely than Fonz. Seems to me like armlx is trying to work these numbers to 'prove' that Shteven is a better lynch than he is.

[iamausername]

those already voting him were the other leading suspects, due to their absence from the Spacewagon.

Fonz, please make note of this:

Spacecase - 6 (Rigel, TheFonz, Shteven, Phate,

Iamausername

, LaptopGun)

Would have corrected your misconception earlier if I'd realised that was why you were saying armlx and I were the leading suspects on D4.

[iamausername]

Yeah, it probably is about time to lay down a vote.

Vote: armlx

.

Everyone, who do you think is specifically mafia? Specifically SK?

[iamausername]

Yep, suspected that would happen, and I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Shteven

, because he's clearly more concerned with his own survival than trying to find scum.

I'm pretty much seeing it like this right now:

armlx is probably mafia, but possibly town.
Shteven is probably SK, but possibly mafia.
Fonz is probably town, but possibly SK.

But whichever scum Shteven flips as, I'll be scouring things with a fine toothed comb before I vote tomorrow. (This assumes Shteven is lynched today, and vollkan is killed tonight, since anything else would be madness on someone's part.)

[iamausername]

armlx is probably mafia, but possibly town.
Shteven is probably SK, but possibly mafia.
Fonz is probably town, but possibly SK.

Damn, I'm good.

When I saw Shteven's self-hammer, I guessed that Fonz would win because armlx killed me and Fonz killed him, but thought for sure their roles would be the other way round.

Fantastically played, Fonz, never had the slightest inkling that you were mafia, and your convincing case against Shteven probably won you the game.

Since I was lynched early on do I put this one in my lose column or does this count as a win?

Well, it's technically a win, even if you didn't contribute much to it (through no real fault of your own, I might add; I'm not sure anyone could have got themselves out of the situation Oman left you in). Certainly doesn't count as a lose for you, anyway.

[iamausername]

I want to note that Shteven's self-hammer was the correct play: lynching the last Mafia or the SK would've been a town loss. Nolynching left the possibility of a town win, but with worse odds.

We were at 3:1:1, lynching one of the scum would go to night at 3:1, one townie dead leaves us at 2:1. That's not a loss, is it?