Large Normal 224 | Endgame

[Menalque]

I mean if I'm not lockscum to you then why don't you talk to me

[Menalque]

like I'm no longer convinced you're scum given the Norway!flip but if you assume town!me for a second then what's the impact of that on your wake read?

[Menalque]

I assume we probably have 4 scum so yeah I guess that makes sense

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

[Menalque]

do you agree that Luca is pretty much locktown now?

[Menalque]

hmm I need to reread dolly again

[Menalque]

I think I agree that scum wouldn't be bussing here considering the weakness of their position

like I think it would be minimal cred and would probably only allow them to survive maybe one more mislynch which seems like -EV vs trying to conserve your buddy and aiming for winning in 4p mylo instead of aiming for 6p with both of you alive

[Menalque]

Menalque, Hectic, Reundo, and Dolly all were very quick to jump on the wagon, for NO reason.

Luca initiated the wagon. Tea held back.

Scum is definitely on my wagon. I don't know if it's Luca because he's obstinate and narrow-minded and has been tunneling on me all game.

But the other 4? Those I worry about the most.

I mean I think luca is locktown and his read on A50 was solid

[Menalque]

oop gotta go I have class

[Menalque]

what does everyone think of hectic?

[Menalque]

also of reundo?

[Menalque]

I think Dunn is probtown now

[Menalque]

Where are you on holiday hectic?

[Menalque]

Annoyingly enough, Mene's predecessor was towny, and Mene's push on Norwee wasn't explicitly scummy.
So he's fine for now. @Menelque: Who you scumreading most right now?

Not sure

I think there’s prob p good odds of hitting scum in wake/dolly

[Menalque]

What did you think was towny about past!me?

[Menalque]

okay so gamestate says Luca is probably scum

pk why do you TR norway?

I have another pet SR but we should lynch Luca today prob

What's the reason for this? What about the gamestate?

Don't know if you answered this.
What made you shift focus from Luca to Norwegian?

I had been reading Norwegian's fluidity as townish without paying much attention to the context. With the context it looks much worse.

Luca convinced me look again at the wagons today and the fact he was possibly a counterwagon to wake

I remembered being pinged somewhat when I was reading the game a few days ago by Norway so I decided to deepdive his ISO, which I did, and concluded that he’s scum

What?
You thought Luca was scum because he was a counterwagon to Wake?
Or you thought he's scum because he led you towards the Norwee!scum route?

First one

[Menalque]

Annoyingly enough, Mene's predecessor was towny

What dark place did you pull this out of? The opposite is true, split was hella scummy and Menalque is better.

I just recall agreeing with everything he was saying early on. All of his early reads made sense to me. Maybe I'l reISO him at some point if you feel so strongly against it.

Also, too early to mass claim, Luca.

I can heal you tonight

so it just lets scum kill the second best target, or even potentially a higher priority target if any of your proposed 5 turn out to be investigatives for example.

?

???

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque

I think I prefer this over a Dolly lynch right now.

I don’t like how he’s zoned in on certain slots and basically ignored others. I don’t like his tunneling of Norwegian. I don’t like how he enters the day excusing his play from Yesterday before just sheeping me - he lacks curiosity in this game and hasn’t done much to sort anyone.

I don’t like how he tried to set me up upon entering the thread based purely on how he interpreted the wagons.

He also seems to be missing things as though he’s skimming and not reading properly

.

Oh yeah, also

Who do you think is more likely to be poorly informed on the game

Scum!me who repped in and had a pt to ask whatever I needed to know

Or town!me who repped in with about 2 days to deadline (3?) and had to try and process as much as possible in that time

Still haven’t completely a linear readthrough, I’ve been working more on ISOs when possible

[Menalque]

I also think it’s mental not to TR me for yesterday but *shrug*

[Menalque]

Votecount 3.06

Dolly Parton

(5): NorwegianboyEE, Dunnstral, Luca Blight, Reundo, Tea

Luca Blight

(3): Menalque, Wake88, Almost50

Almost50

(1): Gamma Emerald

Wake88

(1): Hectic

Dunnstral

(1): Dolly Parton

NorwegianboyEE

(1): pisskop

Menalque

(1): davesaz

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2019-12-10 09:30:00)

---

Mod Notes:

Prodding Hectic

My wagon is awful here, while the Dolly wagon looks very pure. It could be that Dolly is scum with either Wake or Menalque, especially given how Menalque tried to set me up as soon as he entered the game.

If I’d tried to set you up I wouldn’t have dropped it so easily and I would have come in with a better reason for you being scum than something obviously disprovable

[Menalque]

I was TR’ing you Yesterday, and I wish Norwegian played his hand better as it would have been interesting to see how you reacted. As it were, I think you should have taken a step back to consider after the claim, but I can’t entirely blame you for how it went down.

I’m more SR’ing you for your general play. It feels weird how you came in, tried to target me based only on the wagons and then went full pelt at Norwegian

without taking any time to sort anyone else.

I tried to engage you on A50 but you brushed it away. I don’t like how you’ve started D4 - you’re not doing anything to solve the game right now.

Where was the time? I devoted a significant chunk of time to this game, I still think that Norway has v bad progressions in his ISO and especially given the FL scumflip.

Fmpov: norway was obvscum, and was in a relatively powerful position being broadly TR. Given that, I thought the other two possible lynched were prob on town, and your A50 case didn’t really convince me vs what I was seeing in Norway.

Last line is fair, I’m not yet. Norway flipping town threw me off, esp as I thought getting him basically gave a bonus scum in Dunn. I haven’t sat down and reread ISOs yet, I’ll get to it, but I feel very tapped out and idk what to make of the Wake/dolly dichotomy in pushes from other people

[Menalque]

Also straight up harder to effort here after (1) being hard wrong and (2) with conftown SRing me instead of trying to get me into this

[Menalque]

Prod received, will try to catch up tonight

[Menalque]

I’ve been loosely following

My initial instinct is that dolly is lying because there seems to be too high a level of town protective power if that’s true

[Menalque]

Although maybe if one of the other scumroles is stacked but idk what that would be

[Menalque]

VOTE: dolly

[Menalque]

I think that’s scum fake self hammering

And I think that scum even night doc makes sense as a balance to town odd night vig, and that even night doc, town roleblocker, town jk is too much protective power for town

[Menalque]

And I appreciate the argument for keeping her alive just in case but frankly if we have two town protectives who both failed to protect conftown then they both deserve to be lynched

[Menalque]

My only doubt on Mene right now is his weird gamestate scumread on Luca. He was townreading Wake to such an extent that he thought Wake was the counterwagon to Luca? Why couldn't it have been TvT, and

why is Wake the scum over Luca in the case of TvS?

His short answers to my questions on it indicate he doesn't really want to talk about it much either.

Didn't the Wake wagon come up first?
I'm not sure about the underlined part, the first part says you think Mena thought Luca was scum over Wake.

Pedit: @Luca: For that VC look at the relative times of the first votes on you/split/wake. People talk "counter" in terms of numbers/competing wagons but timing could matter as well. Yeah, I can look for it too, possibly will.

Yeah, so if the Wake wagon came up first, why would a Luca counterwagon mean Luca was scum? Doesn't it make more sense for Wake to be scum and Luca town since he came after?

But you're saying the opposite of the underlined part now. You asked a question why is Wake scum over Luca, and then answered it by saying he is. If you agree with it then why are you asking the question? Much confusion...

Oh, right. That should say: "why is Luca scum over Wake in the case of TvS?"

^Whenever you're ready, Mene.

@Mene

I was never townreading wake so much I got mixed up on the orders of the wagon formation

[Menalque]

Hot take: Menalque and Dolly have been hard defending each other while trying to look like they don't care about the other

I'll take any defense. EIther they are scum and know I'm town or they are Good Town who knows what's up.

Nor

You've been one of my top TRs all game. Watching you destroy that is heart breaking.

What is the count? Am I at the claim stage?

Omegalul if Wake Menalque and Dolly are all town and scum turns out to be a deepwolf

I don't know about Menalque but I'm town.

The Scum Five:

Menalque, Wake, Dolly, Davesaz, Pisskop

I made VCA cases on Wake, Dave and Pisskop.

So The Final Scum:

Dave and Pisskop.

***Maybe Wake/Hectic.
****Prolly not Hectic
*****Wake maybe.

What’s your read on Menalque?

Spamming scum comes to mind tbh after a quick ISO skim.

VOTE: Menalque

I think Wake is the ‘correct’ lynch today, tbh. Even if he’s Town he’s going to a liability later in the game. It would also give some valuable info regarding wagons this game.

I’m not sure why but I feel less inclined to lynch Dolly. I think it should either be Wake or Menalque for the chop today.

Here is a question for you.

Who do we need on the Wake or Menal wagons to get the most info out of these 2 lynches.

Could you give us a quick shotgun reads list of everyone in order? Explanations aren't necessary but would be helpful.

I'll try to do this later. I most likely will be a horrible list.

Dave, Dunn and Menal are my current picks for today's lynch to hold you over.

VOTE: Menalque

Just noticed the deadline is almost here.

I think this is again a v bad progression to where we are now

I’m vaguely disappointed in Luca for thinking I’m scum after yesterday, or at least thinking I’m more likely to flip scum than wake or dolly or maybe Dave who I don’t really have thoughts on

[Menalque]

Like Norway is an easy pocket if I wanted to do that, and he was TRing me hard enough by the end that I could have even flipped off him at the end and had him hard pocketed

There’s really very little incentive for scum!me to play like I did yesterday vs easier routes like pushing the wake lynch

[Menalque]

I also started pushing Norway before Luca started really pushing A50 which removes the ability of anyone to criticise me for hard defending scum because scum wasn’t under attack when I started going after nor

[Menalque]

But yeah, I know I’ve been sort of lethargic today (game day) so I get it if I seem off tonally and you’re lynching me for that because you can’t get over it

But I am vaguely disappointed that anyone who knows me here at all thinks I’m scum

Final couple of things in case I get hammered before I get back:

Luca is town
Reundo is town for the timing of when they efforted I think
Dunn is town if dolly is scum and probably town anyway
Pk can be town but would have liked to see more
Tea is towny but feels weird from gut, can stay in town for now
Hectic is in similar territory to tea bc I alsways struggle with his tone

Dave could be scum
Wake is potentially scum

Dolly is actually scum I think

If it’s radically different to this then I have no idea

I think town has done a decent job apart from misidentifying me

[Menalque]

And I’m disappointed in your play today. I think Dolly is the more likely to flip scum, but as we’ve covered it makes sense leaving her alive until tomorrow.

Idk I can’t really offer you anything other than I poured in loads of effort yesterday just for norway to flip town anyway after not really defending himself

I think the gamestate is okay and headed in the right direction and generally when I’m wrong I ease off the gas a lot the next day

[Menalque]

I don’t really have strong feelings between wake and Dave but I could lynch there too

Like I said I kind of get lynching me for being off my normal tone/effort for my towngame so long as no one is actually saying they think my play is scum

[Menalque]

I thought he was reasonable in SRing Norway as I had the same thought

Also just doesn’t seem as scummy to me this game as when I’ve played with him otherwise, although that may be an antitell (like the reverse) because I normally find him really scummy when he’s town

[Menalque]

I’m saying I’ve never spent 2 hours chasing someone as scum

[Menalque]

And I think the length and detail of that case is something that you can’t reasonably believe I could do faster than the amount of time I put into it

[Menalque]

I also disagree with the characterisation of it as a tunnel, I think it was aggressive pursuit of a SR but I was actively trying to give Norway the chance to give me reasons to reconsider him and he didnt

[Menalque]

VOTE: wake

[Menalque]

I think that if someone hasn’t played well to the point they’re getting lynched then unless there’s a very good reason to believe the role claim/it’s confirmable they should be lynched anyway

I may have been confbiasing a bit but I think there were very good reasons to scumread him and the reasons he gave we’re unconvincing and showed a lack of engagement with the most important points of my case: for instance, the dropped SR on FL

I didn’t really have time to sort elsewhere, but if Norway had been able to convincingly explain his changes in direction to me then I wouldn’t have kept pushing for his lynch

If he’d protected Chem, or even done any crumbing of JK before coming under pressure, I may have been willing to let him try to confirm himself during the night

[Menalque]

Jailkeeper. Roleblocks. Town. Investigatives.

Chemist. Was. Never. Going. To. Post. His. Result. If. Not. Protected. Because. Scum. Were. Always. Killing. Him. And. So. It’s. Still. Better. To. Deny. Scum. A. Kill. On. Conftown.

[Menalque]

Mene's improved

. We lynch Dave or Wake today.
Should've stopped overthinking Wake long ago tbh.
Wake for sure actually.

VOTE: Wake

How?

[Menalque]

My guess for now is Dolly and Pissy.

why pisskop?

[Menalque]

Wake Scum flip = PK is scum
Wake town flip = tea/menal is scum

And this?

[Menalque]

oh yeah, I thought I'd VLA'd but maybe I didn't

VLA until after Christmas please pinguino

Noted.

-PP

[Menalque]

Wake Scum flip = PK is scum
Wake town flip = tea/menal is scum

And this?

Well its obviously flawed. Tea flipped town.

surely that should make me more likely to be scum fypov?

[Menalque]

Oof I’m very drunk gang

[Menalque]

Wake Scum flip = PK is scum
Wake town flip = tea/menal is scum

And this?

Well its obviously flawed. Tea flipped town.

surely that should make me more likely to be scum fypov?

If tea didn't flip green then yeah I would probably be on to you. But my associations wrt the wake wagon have to be reevaluated.

I don't understand what you mean

if you think wake town implies scum in (Mena, tea) then surely one of those two flipping green should reinforce your belief that I'm scum?

[Menalque]

Oof I’m very drunk gang

Tequila actually completely fucks me up. I avoid it most times

oh god I forgot I did a shot of tequila and you just reminded me

it was good times tho, I love tequila

the bane of my life last night was gin

so many gin and tonics

[Menalque]

Cheers to all the drunks.

cheers!

[Menalque]

Luca any idea when you might be online to jam a little in real time?

[Menalque]

why is Dunn scum?

[Menalque]

For starters, Dunn is the only one still alive besides me not on the Wake wagon.

why does that make him scum?

also I think Luca should probably be the one who decides the order of mass claim

[Menalque]

For starters, Dunn is the only one still alive besides me not on the Wake wagon.

why does that make him scum?

also I think Luca should probably be the one who decides the order of mass claim

Why are you against Dunn going first?

because I'm not convinced that Dunn is the scummiest person, but regardless of that the towniest person (Luca) should be the one to decide mass claim order

[Menalque]

I don't wanna say my preference for first to claim rn because I'm trying to see what they do without pressure

I'm not gonna claim first unless Luca really wants me to because I know I'm town and ideally want to go last

[Menalque]

I mean

yea

[Menalque]

For starters, Dunn is the only one still alive besides me not on the Wake wagon.

And Dunn is the one who must claim first to start the mass claim.

I mean I asked you why Dunn is scum and this is what you gave me by way of answer

given that I already have doubts around your slot, the towniest slot in the game thinks you're scum, there are some inconsistencies in the story you're telling : why would I think Dunn is more likely to be scum than you?

esp as the push for mass claim, now that I think about it more, is potentially scum who thinks they're going down anyway trying to out as much info as possible for their buddy to work with on the way

[Menalque]

I mean, yeah, maybe? idk a lot about you and I don't have reasons to believe that you're some top tier scum player

not to mention that even people who are good as scum can't have a bad game where they play badly

I think I'm reasonably good at scum but I've still had a couple of games where I was busted up on D1

[Menalque]

nah, I actually think mass claim is too early here

we can reasonably assume there are 2 scum left

that means mylo is tomorrow if we get it wrong today

we should probably wait until then, esp as if we mislynch today but Luca shoots correctly we get an extra day

[Menalque]

as in we'll be in 5p but it won't be Lylo

[Menalque]

if Luca shoots and misses then we're in 5p lylo and we do mass claim there

what's the advantage to doing it today?

[Menalque]

you may notice that I'm not actually voting you right now for that exact reason

[Menalque]

why do you think Dave and pk are the scummiest after Dunn?

and can you flesh out why you think Dunn is scummy with more reasons?

[Menalque]

why? can you give me something about play rather than setup spec?

[Menalque]

@dolly you're talking like people aren't readable based on play when they are

[Menalque]

ditto

[Menalque]

increasingly feel like we're either very right or very wrong this game

[Menalque]

Luca when are you back?

[Menalque]

ah fuck this is probably right

VOTE: dolly

[Menalque]

that's L-1

[Menalque]

Explain that hammer hectic

[Menalque]

I’m probably voting you like 90% of the time here so if you’re town be convincing on why town!you ever does that

[Menalque]

Luca when are you back?

Why would I have posted this if I wanted day to end prematurely?

[Menalque]

If you’re town then towncase yourself for me hectic otherwise I’m voting you

[Menalque]

I don’t think Dave and reundo can be scum together here

[Menalque]

Because why wouldn’t they push one of hectic/me if that’s TvT knowing that it’s fairly likely that one will vote the other and they can win here

[Menalque]

I’m not sure that reundo is town, but I think Dave is town

[Menalque]

I’m gonna vote hectic later today unless anyone can give me a reason for why he’s likely to be town here

[Menalque]

I mean I’ve told you like twice to towncase yourself if you’re town and you haven’t

[Menalque]

There’s no point in me explaining prior to voting you bc if you’re town it’s game over and if you’re scum then I’ll be 1v1ing you anyway

[Menalque]

Do you think Dunn/reundo is possible @dave?

[Menalque]

I mean I’ve told you like twice to towncase yourself if you’re town and you haven’t

(1)

I don't know how to towncase myself, and it'd probably be a waste of time, how would me explaining my own actions as town do anything?

There’s no point in me explaining prior to voting you bc if you’re town it’s game over and if you’re scum then I’ll be 1v1ing you anyway

(2)

How about so we could talk about your explanation?

(3)

You're so set on this that you'd chance insta-losing the game over bothering explaining this?

(1) bc I’m town and I’m telling you that I’m going to vote you shortly if you don’t do it

(2) well towncase yourself and if it’s plausible maybe we can talk otherwise you’re just scum who’s stalling/planning to try and use any explanation as ammo in the coming 1v1

(3) yah

[Menalque]

Err because scum has significant incentive to end day early before conf!town could give their final reads, especially when conf!town had just been asked after?

[Menalque]

Actually this does remind me that I should look at where Luca had the rest of you

[Menalque]

Okay so he didn’t like Dave the most (aside from me who he also didn’t like that much)

[Menalque]

I think I agree that Dunn is the most likely to be scum here

[Menalque]

Do you think Dunn/reundo is possible @dave?

[Menalque]

I think I agree that Dunn is the most likely to be scum here

What happened to voting for me 90% of the time? Why is Dunnstra most likely now?

Because unless it’s exactly Dave + reundo I think its dunn

Him doing nothing all game is prob scum indicative for him

[Menalque]

I marabout it’s also probably stilll I but happy to go with the two people I think are town and do dunn first then sort you more definitively tomorrow

[Menalque]

ESP bc if there’s an obvscum they should actually die girst

[Menalque]

Him doing nothing all game is prob scum indicative for him

Based on what?

Ur iso

[Menalque]

I wonder if scum goes for the win here or tried to create a false dichotomy

[Menalque]

VOTE: hectic

I just don't really see hectic not being scum tbh

[Menalque]

guess we'll see

sorry to town if this is losing, I've been super disconnected and I think this is probably the best thing I can do

[Menalque]

I think Dave is pretty town

I guess I could see reundo and Dunn but seems less likely

[Menalque]

ahh gg

[Menalque]

idrk why you didn't push the hectic/me dichotomy > Dunn

[Menalque]

again, sorry town

I think I was losing here either way because I think I was always voting either hectic or Dunn over either of reundo/Dave

[Menalque]

sorry Norway

chem I thought you played really well

[Menalque]

also v well played Dave and reundo

like I said, I think we were losing regardless of if we got it right on D6 because if they brought me to 3p I don't think I was ever gonna get to SRing one of them > whoever was left of Dunn/hectic

they were both just doing exactly what I wanted from them to get TR

[Menalque]

that would have been p funny if reundo had been false guiltied and lynched

[Menalque]

sorry Norway

I was really stressed when you attacked me due to exams being 1 days away. I think that might have impacted my reaction a bit. Even though i still think you're mostly to blame for my mislynch (obviously) i still think i could have handled it better. Either way, i'm not that mad anymore because i've had some time to calm down. Though i am still a bit salty in my earlier posts in the dead thread.

yeah I probably should have TR you for your reaction to it emotionally

getting tunnelled sucks esp when you do get lynched because of it so I think I'd probably have been even saltier in dead thread if it had been me

ftr and so you know, I'm actually quite good at breaking tunnels if people give me what I ask them for which is normally a LOT of interaction and responding over and over again to my questions, so if I am stuck on you again in the future you can (1) remind me of this game but also (2) bear in mind that I am persuadable even when I'm tunnelled (if I'm truly not willing to listen at all I'm probably just scum)

[Menalque]

because it was an atrocious claim and he chose not to target the conf!town N2?

Mena i don't get your thought process here.
Apparently it was a "bad claim" because i claimed when it was looking like i was very close to getting lynched. So what you're saying is that i should claim when i only have 2 or 3 votes on me? Why in the actual fuck would i claim a power role and expose myself to the mafia when there's still the possibility i don't need to? This is such a retarded way of thinking i just don't get how you're still hammering this point like it holds any value.
Also the fact that there WAS another protective role that wouldn't roleblock Chemist on N2, but he stupidly chose to defend me for some dumb reason.

so I thought I'd respond to the substance of this point:

the reason I thought it was a bad claim is that I thought any protectives should have always been on chemist as he was conf!town and had the ability to nail further scum meaning scum were basically never leaving him alive

I didn't want you to claim immediately or anything, but I found it really suspect that you hadn't crumbed until later as I think later game crumbing s more indicative of mafia bc mafia potentially have to claim around how the game state has evolved rather than just true claiming their role regardless

therefore it's harder for mafia to crumb in let's say the first 100-150 posts bc they'd have to predict accurately which claim they'd need for later on. yes, this can somewhat be avoided by crumbing multiple roles, but that's also risky bc if it gets noticed then you're p much outed imo

there's also another reason why I was sticking hard to my guns: I was under a reasonable amount of suspicion at this point, if memory serves me right, so I needed to double down on the argument to show that I mislynched you out of genuine conviction that you were scum instead of scum!me mislynching you to eliminate a widely TR player

[Menalque]

incidentally does this count as papa leaf's last scum win of 2019 or his first of 2020

[Menalque]

I gotta say, looking back on it all now it seems so clear who the scumteam were

it's like I have 2020 vision or something

[Menalque]

it's like I have 2020 vision or something

[Menalque]

I think I was too all over the place this game for my voting Dave at the end to have meant anything.

I think scum was right that it'd be hard to parse who I was a threat to

ngl I think at 8 players I hadn't realised you were dead and was wondering if you were scum for being quiet

[Menalque]

I mostly TR reundo for the big post he made on like D4 or something where I thought the game was heavily apathied and he seemed to be trying to get it started again