Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame

[fireisredsir]

a solve without frog? ok yea ill take a look

[fireisredsir]

ok so starting out, i want to pull out the votes that titus placed in the last couple days, especially from when she still thought she had a chance of convincing people she was town and getting people on her side, starting after the malcolm flip:

1) 5062 she votes DV, reaching out to tene and VP
2) 5069 after I ask her why she didn't vote eyes as her top scumread and someone who already had votes, she switches to eyes
3) 5261 she votes Nero, reaching out to VP. she also names scorpious, eyes, and DV as her top scumreads
4) 5609 she votes frog, reaching out to eyes and VP. VP is extremely pocketed by this point
5) 5839 she votes DV, reaching out to me. at the time i thought she could be trying to feed me a scum partner to get me on her side, but now i think that's unlikely
6) 6070 she votes VP after the cape wagon forms, telling math not to get distracted. this is still the scummiest post in the game.
7) 6088 she votes cape after i call her out for her previous vote. after this i think she knows she's dead and has given up trying to get people on her side for the most part. i think the votes after this point are less meaningful, but for the sake of completion, they are: VP to end the day, then next day there's Cape, then frog, then self.

so, from all of that, i don't think the DV votes are partner votes. the frog, cape, and eyes votes all easily could be. it's also worth noting that she reached out to tene and eyes with her votes at one point, but each of those were when she was also reaching out to VP. still could be meaningful

(also, as an aside, 6709 is one of the clearer examples of her trying to turn me and april against math and get us on her side. she was more focused on pocketing april since I wasn't budging, but she tried with me a few times too. april is town)

i think frog and cape are the most likely scum. it could easily both, but it's possible that one is town. purely going off movement and the way titus voted, i would lean towards cape. cape also voted titus to help end the day and i think there was likely scum in that group. but purely going off play, i would lean towards frog. i think he hasn't really been trying to solve for a while now, and even when he did show up, he just ranted about how my meta read was bad and still gave no attempt to solve. that just sounds like scum who thinks they were caught for the wrong reasons but doesn't want to give out associations.

so most likely scenario imo is that it's both frog and cape. assuming we're hunting for 3, the third could be any of eyes, galron, tene, scorp. i would lean towards eyes or galron, then tene and scorp. really the only thing in galron's favor is the yeet clear. if there's a traitor, it could be anyone, so i don't think it's that worth hunting for them from my pov.

eyes is probably either honest about his role (as either alignment) or is maf with tene. i think it would be pretty risky as scum eyes with town tene to out a result without asking for a claim first. the fact that he didn't ask for claims at all makes me lean towards thinking he does have the role. i don't have strong feelings at this time about whether his role makes him more likely to be town or maf. currently assuming he's more likely to be town, and fine to focus on frog/cape for now, but still keeping him in mind as a possible partner.

if it's frog and not cape, i think it probably has to be tene. my heart doesn't want this one to be true. third is probably eyes, but could be galron. probably not scorp.

if it's cape and not frog, scorp is more likely. eyes is still possible but less likely bc i think tene is also less likely here. third probably galron? idk im not super sold on that team

if it's neither cape or frog, we're in trouble lol, but it's probably eyes/tene with... scorp? maybe galron? maybe a traitor?

if it's none of cape/frog/eyes... it isn't. there's no way. like 1% chance. but it would prob have to be tene, scorp, and galron. which i don't think even pair that well.

[fireisredsir]

lol

you always make me laugh fen thanks <3

[fireisredsir]

he did say it multiple times already so apparently not

[fireisredsir]

im not really interested in looking at april/deas/std right now. i might tomorrow but i don't think any of them were aligned with titus based on the way she played and they way they have played

[fireisredsir]

i think one of titus' partners voted her at the end of day there. i don't think it's dragons, so if it's not cape, it's most likely you. not 100% on that but eh. i kinda just want to see the flip today and work from there, but math wanted me to try to full solve. i think flipping either frog or cape today will tell us a lot and i can reread things again to help sort some more

[fireisredsir]

yea it probably is, im not too tied to it. on an individual level id have you below my other 5 candidates but i think i have to consider the partner possibilities

[fireisredsir]

(before you ask, the tell is that if someone is mostly lurking, and when they post they're mostly shitposting without trying to appear townie, they're more likely town. this does not apply to players like not_mafia.

it also does not necessarily apply to scorpious, because i've seen fua say he always plays like this, and i don't have the knowledge to know whether he'd play like this as scum, which is why it's only weakly town!indicative)

[fireisredsir]

yea to me the only thing that really gives me pause on tene is that the wagon movement d1 and d2 does fit on some level with a titus/tene/cape/frog team. i don't feel very inclined to bet anything on that though considering ive been townreading tene's recent play, and some of the interactions look pretty not-partner-y

[fireisredsir]

im fine with voting frog or cape. frog still hasn't attempted to solve at all (and his reason for not solving is terrible and extremely scummy, "im not solving until math is dead or people stop sheeping him", like i mean come on, what town says that?) so i would prefer to vote there

[fireisredsir]

im willing to consider other possibilities tomorrow, but for today it's frog or cape

[fireisredsir]

whenever math is ready

[fireisredsir]

fine with me, no rush

[fireisredsir]

personally i think titus' original plan was to live to endgame but that didn't work out. the key i guess is finding where exactly that plan shifted to "set the game state up to be in a favorable position once im gone". I'd guess somewhere around 6088

[fireisredsir]

and if you're open to ideas, i think she switched on you because it set her up in a good position to get townread by April and VP

[fireisredsir]

not due to role, due to playstyle. from my pov at least, i don't think there's any scum left who could lead town. if she's gone town will solve this, and I think we're most of the way there.

from your pov i get how that's not a given, since me or april could be the one intended to lead town and go deep. but i know it's not me, and im confident enough in april being town to think it isn't them either, so that's why i think titus wanted to be the one

[fireisredsir]

high

[fireisredsir]

idk. nothing is ever 100%. but id say close enough to it that im not currently considering it as a possibility (ive done that enough already) and am perfectly comfortable with that. after we flip frog or cape we can talk about it more tomorrow if we're both still here. which we probably won't be, but still

[fireisredsir]

my gut says frog, but based on titus play i agree cape makes sense. i hope that wasn't intentionally set up by her, but it's hard to make that call

and chances are, it's both of them anyway

VOTE: Cape

[fireisredsir]

i don't think there's any reasonable chance that there isn't scum between frog and cape. there's good reasons for each of them. i think there's a good chance it's both of them. we have to choose one. i think letting math pick is a fine option because then at least we know the direction isn't being led by scum

[fireisredsir]

scorp and eyes want frog, DV wants cape, galron... hard to tell what he wants, he's kinda given points for several directions. dragons wants april, and eyes i think? idk

we're never gonna satisfy everyone and that's partly cause some of them are maf

[fireisredsir]

I mean, never. We can flip players for being scum. We can't flip players to prove other players anymore. We burned those "proving" April and we can see how that turned out. You'll never get my vote with an argument based on neighbor spec. The Titus/Cape case is the only reason I am even considering this.

the reason is not due to setup spec and you should know that. i think math is just saying that at least if he is town we get some extra info out of it that we wouldn't get out of a frog town flip

[fireisredsir]

my gut says frog, but based on titus play i agree cape makes sense.

i hope that wasn't intentionally set up by her, but it's hard to make that call

and chances are, it's both of them anyway

VOTE: Cape

okay lmao

If you were asking why I gone on Titus on Titus day, it really isn't that hard to see when you look at my posts from aforementioned previous day

6199, 6201, 6206.

See what you gotta do, you gotta add it up

its more about titus' play around you than your play around titus

[fireisredsir]

Talk to me about Deas, also I find it absolutely hilarious that you are seriously considering my harsh words toward Datisi to be w/w but for some reason 3067/3072 is enough?

im not townreading deas due to those two posts and i didn't ever say i was, not sure where you got that

[fireisredsir]

feels kinda towny tho tbh can we do frog instead

[fireisredsir]

like frog isn't even trying

[fireisredsir]

Since your scumread on fire, have you looked back on this?

what the. this was rvs. and i do not think that frog starting useless threads of conversation is very AI

[fireisredsir]

eh or maybe it is just cape/frog. today cape has now voted eyes, dragons, April, me, and DV

[fireisredsir]

ok yea currently i think
cape scum + frog scum >> cape town + frog scum >>>>> cape scum + frog town >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cape town + frog town

[fireisredsir]

Anyways, since I am at E-2 should I claim? I am just asking because IDK if hardclaiming counts as something I shouldn't do since VPB never claimed their modifier thing

how did you miss that vp claimed

[fireisredsir]

math dw about it i just get hesitant when things come down to it. i already reconsidered like an hour later and decided cape was best

[fireisredsir]

i was v confident on titus and even after the self vote i was spam refreshing to make sure the flip was actually going to be red bc I was nervous for the 1% chance that it wasn't

[fireisredsir]

anyway cape's 4861 and 6945 and now not knowing that VP claimed ascetic are just, like... is he even reading the thread?

[fireisredsir]

i have no idea why the SK theory was being seriously considered 2 days ago and it makes even less sense now

[fireisredsir]

for the resistance point, i think it could easily be frog+galron + someone who decided early that they wanted to bus

[fireisredsir]

for the resistance point, i think it could easily be frog+galron + someone who decided early that they wanted to bus

Are you the new April?

Start off agreeing then try to convince me otherwise?

Like what April did with Titus?

huh? im explaining my thought process for why i think frog scum is still viable. ive said all day that i want one of frog/cape/eyes, and after the eyes claim i slightly prefer frog or cape. im voting with you on cape, and if you want cape, i don't plan to change that

im just having a hard time getting over the fact that frog isn't even trying this day phase

[fireisredsir]

to be clear i think cape is more likely to be scum than town. i also think frog is more likely to be scum than town. i do think frog is slightly more likely to be scum than cape, but im fine with either, cause i could be wrong and i don't really want to lead us down the wrong path

[fireisredsir]

if you want numbers id say like...

frog scum + cape scum: 40%
frog scum + cape town: 35%
frog town + cape scum: 20%
frog town + cape town: 5%

[fireisredsir]

for the resistance point, i think it could easily be frog+galron + someone who decided early that they wanted to bus

This again has too many people if you think no traitor and Cape scum

There would be two others. Not three.

I think you think there’s a traitor or you’re lying scum or something

Help me out here

This isn’t the first time

what? i was talking about a possible world where cape is town and frog is scum. if it's cape and frog both scum, which i think is most likely, then we're totally fine

[fireisredsir]

the only scenarios that are concerning for me rn are the ones where one of frog or cape is town. if we are in that world, im worried about the possibility of us ending up hitting the wrong one. that's the most dangerous possible scenario from my pov, and so that's the one that im thinking about

if frog and cape are both scum, then we're flipping a scum today, and we will almost definitely win. that's why im putting my energy towards considering the other possibilities, bc if it is just frog+cape then we've basically already won imo lol

[fireisredsir]

I can't say the prospect of voting with April and not with Math and my strongest townread makes me feel great.

i mean a vote on frog is also spiritually with me, since i would be happy to vote there too. tbh id just feel really bad if we abandon math's push here and end up being wrong

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Frog

Yeah, I’m gonna go here because I feel like Cape flips, no matter what they flip, I’d be next.

I don’t want Galron or myself fogging up tomorrow when we should have gotten Frog.

So for me, I like Frog -> Cape

you won't be next. if you're switching based on that, don't worry, you don't need to

[fireisredsir]

ok fine i really wanted to greed for another result, but i probably die here tonight anyway. and if everyone else has the same poe as me then we can solve easier, everyone is getting distracted. plus (i only realized this recently, cause I'm DUMB) if we flip a scum here and there's a traitor my role will be useless

im a traffic analyzer. so i can check if people have private communications.

n1: save the dragons, does NOT have communications
n2: titus, HAS communications
n3: April ludgate, does NOT have communications
n4: deasvail, does NOT have communications

so the only way dragons/april/deas are maf is if they're traitors. or, technically it could be deas+titus as the only groupscum and then like 3 traitors but wtf is that setup. i think we shouldn't ever elim in that group of 3 and should just hunt the groupscum instead. that's why im only considering maf outside of that group.

UNVOTE: so we can discuss and so that people smarter than me can setup spec

[fireisredsir]

apologies to anyone who believed i actually have good reads LOL i don't im just informed

[fireisredsir]

yea i think i probably would have died, i got tired of coming up with reasons and was really lazy about my townread on you lol

[fireisredsir]

i agree though, it is a lot of power. it's a little less if there's a traitor, and it would have been a lot less if hood+masons hadn't been outed d1 (shoutout to them for doing that and making my job easier), but it's still pretty strong, and that makes me concerned about multiple things

[fireisredsir]

i am pretty sus of eyes but like deas said i don't think we necessarily have to go there first

[fireisredsir]

i also have very poor setup knowledge hence why i want smarter people to tell me what i should think

[fireisredsir]

i wasn't planning to claim at that point so i have no valid reason to be sus of eyes in thread. if I'm just like "there's no way eyes is telling the truth!!" i think that makes it pretty obvious im PR lmao

my claim is pretty clearly supported by my posting this game, but you're right it will prob just be confirmed when I die tonight

[fireisredsir]

i want to see how other people adjust their solves based on this info tho, which is why i think it was worth it to do it now

[fireisredsir]

i also figured that i had made my results obvious enough that if i got NKd it was nbd bc people would figure them out, but i started to think that you would probably still think April was maf unless i explicitly stated my results lol

[fireisredsir]

like it literally could just be cape/frog/eyes and i think that's extremely believable

[fireisredsir]

yea im fine with that. i still slightly prefer frog but cape is alright. i want to see how people respond to this though first

[fireisredsir]

I think all scum are probably in Cape frog eyes galron.

yea I think that's very likely, with galron traitor

[fireisredsir]

yea im fine with that. i still slightly prefer frog but cape is alright. i want to see how people respond to this though first

this was in response to math saying to elim cape, if that's unclear

[fireisredsir]

I think all scum are probably in Cape frog eyes galron.

yea I think that's very likely, with galron traitor

If Galron is traitor can I get a told you so earlier?

sure

[fireisredsir]

surely town cape would just want to elim in my poe here, right? it's not like i claimed a guilty on him. i just explained where my townreads were coming from, and those being poorly explained was a big part of why he was sus of me

[fireisredsir]

agreed that frog is very likely mafia, and is basically confirmed maf if you're town. that's a more reasonable reaction!

[fireisredsir]

Tbh your defense of April is why I am sus of you.

Boon usually doesn’t miss three times in a row

i think he's been spot on after the titus flip, actually. we'll see when the flips happen but i think his solve is the best of anyone left who is uninformed

[fireisredsir]

what lmao

[fireisredsir]

yeah, that's why at first i wanted to be greedy and not claim until tomorrow, bc it is basically a mech win if i had lived. but i started to feel it was necessary, and also the chances of me living were getting pretty small

[fireisredsir]

i deserve to win if i did that

[fireisredsir]

just to hunt masons??

[fireisredsir]

i think it makes sense for town, with between 4 and 6 false guilties, potentially some scum hiding in the hood, and potentially some false innos with traitor(s)

[fireisredsir]

Please bring frog results tomorrow.

I think checking Frog is a waste when I flip town, I would check someone like fire or something, not sure if any of that would matter tho

don't worry i already checked myself and im clean

[fireisredsir]

why not follower scum so they can find me/yeet/nero

[fireisredsir]

i want to see what april and dragons think

[fireisredsir]

yeet was 3 shot

[fireisredsir]

i agree tho, it is weird. and means that scum have more power and/or more members than we thought

[fireisredsir]

don't worry im dying tonight like 100 times out of 100, i wish you all luck

(but keep up the suspicion, then maybe they'll think im a possible mislim tomorrow!!)

[fireisredsir]

if it's like frog/eyes/galron tho maybe they don't even read the thread to see the claim and I'm safe

[fireisredsir]

yea and uh im also definitely only a 4-shot who forgot to claim earlier, oops! def don't have any more info to gain

[fireisredsir]

based on play and interactions i think galron groupscum is unlikely. he could easily be traitor but probably not worth pursuing over other candidates

[fireisredsir]

I think I know what you mean, because every so often I read a tene post and it /feels/ like scum

me, with like his first hundred posts or so

but after a certain point if all the posts feel like that then it's prob just how he talks

[fireisredsir]

scum hiding by not even being in the game, very clever flipply

[fireisredsir]

i think we're in the clear boys

[fireisredsir]

no, he probably doesn't know it

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: april Cape was townie by dayplay

what did galron tell you about the nightplay?

If galron claimed Town Friendly Neighbor on me then I hard claim NOT receiving any messages

what's your solve

[fireisredsir]

i mean eyes has wanted frog > cape all day, he's just following math

[fireisredsir]

i do think frog is likely but i don't think eyes should be a factor in that

[fireisredsir]

i just think we might just lose in what is possibly elo tomorrow on the off chance that frog flips town. and math will be really mad lmao

at least if cape flips town we still have a solid plan

and hey maybe it's still just both of them

VOTE: Cape

deas prefers cape. math prefers cape. april wants both. dragons prefers frog but doesn't really like either. i want both but slightly prefer frog.

scorp prefers frog strongly. eyes prefers frog strongly. tene prefers frog. galron prefers flipply.

based on that i think math is right and cape is the right move

[fireisredsir]

idk, tmi?

[fireisredsir]

idk if cape scumbuddies really come to his defense like this but whatever

i think they wanted to bus frog lol

[fireisredsir]

wp all! tough call at the end there, i don't think it was likely we were going to lim dwlee/galron. i would have gone with scorp as well (after frog, at least)

[fireisredsir]

really rough that the two investigatives both hit scum n1 but both were false innos

[fireisredsir]

i might just be very stingy with my claims, but i def would not have

no idea what is correct tho, and i understand doing it

[fireisredsir]

holy crap i thought i posted more in this game 22 posts wow i'm probably scum

can't believe i found this and then just immediately believed dragons when he said he wouldn't crumb like that

[fireisredsir]

ty for the thoughts titus, really interesting to hear things from your perspective

i felt like there were a lot of places where we did compromise and work together somewhat as town, they just... all ended up being the wrong ones. Malcolm, VP, and Cape all were some amount of compromise. or at least for each of them i remember thinking "i want someone else, but these players want this person". and i don't really think those were that scum influenced? so maybe we just sucked at finding the right places to compromise on lol

[fireisredsir]

enchant never claimed holster n2, so nobody had any reason to think that the 2nd shot was the faked one instead of the 3rd shot

[fireisredsir]

idk much about setup design, but my thoughts:

i don't know if it comes down to personal preference or not, but i think that the nature of games that have >standard balance number of scum, and therefore have to have strong town PR to balance that, will automatically make there be a lack of wiggle room and things can feel oppressive, especially for scum, but in some ways town can feel that too. like d1 it felt like we kept running people up and they ended up being PRs, and had to keep turning elsewhere. then with the hood, the masons, the various PR results, it felt like we were constrained a lot by mechanics and it ended up taking prominence over dayplay. and scum had a much smaller area to work in, because there were several clears from PRs plus they had an extra scum which narrows the field of limmable town even further.

basically point is that if town needs strong PRs to be balanced, then they must use those effectively or they are at a disadvantage, and so naturally mechanics tend to dominate play, and it limits the directions that both sides can go

i don't think there's anything super wrong with that, there are elements of mechanical play that are enjoyable, and i think if we were better at finding the right balance between focus on mechanics and focus on dayplay, town would have won. and i still had lots of fun and think it was a good game overall. but the setup by nature makes for pretty different experience than a more standard, less power-heavy setup