Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame

[Frogsterking]

you could be right on deas but VP is only a push again b/c him and a bunch of others tried to save him and succeded. He's not town.

but wouldn't he self if he was srs about not wanting to play?

VOTE: VP Baltar

Yeah I thought VP had some kind of an agenda behind asking me to vote him but not self voting. Now though I think maybe it was just reverse psychology.

___

I've got in order from most to least right now:

Town:
Math
Galron
Enchant
Nero
Cape
Fire
Townlean:
Scorpius
Luminary
Null:
Dragons
April
Scum lean:
Eyes
Titus
Dease
Scum:
VP

I do think my wagon is packed with scum trying to keep VP alive, and there's at least 1 scum taking the opposite side against VP.

PEdit: Wow maybe I should have stuck my foot in my mouth instead of defending Scorpius!

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, did you look at any town games of mine as well or just the scum game?

No I just read that one scum game.

Yeah. Why is no one considering a Serial Killer when that's as much of an issue as a potential traitor?

Lack of deaths

The SK if one exists has to either intentionally no kill two nights in a row or have their kill blocked twice in a row.

Ikay, that's fine. What's the math on that? I mean, a SK could just as easily targetted the same two as the maf?

16 alive. M mafia alive. 16 - M viable targets for scum to shoot.
15 viable targets for an SK.

So very slim odds. It’s possible but not worth the exact percentage

That's not true because there were at least two TPRs outted on D1. It's not 1/15 * 1/16 - M to choose the same target it's more like 1/2.

This game makes more sense if it's not just town v scum. The nightplay makes less sense at first but the dayplay makes more sense. The nightplay isn't inconceivable considering what happened D1. HEM could easily be targeted twice if they pushed the killer and Math was heavily pressuring at least one townie both sides would target HEM. If the psychologist can cure the killer then the killer might want the psychologist dead so the killer doesn't have to join the town, and scum kill Yeet as well to prevent more clears.

[Frogsterking]

TPRs are outted both D1 and D2 the odds are not bad and this game has a lot of confusing multi-sided situations and there is a flipped psychologist

[Frogsterking]

GUYS LISTEN.

MASONS WERE OUTTED D1 AND A HARD INNO WAS CLAIMED D2. THERE IS A FLIPPED PSYCHOLOGIST. THE NIGHT KILLS COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN STACKED. THERE CAN BE A DAMN KILLER AND THEY ARE PROBABLY FLAKEY AND WANT VP ALIVE.

[Frogsterking]

GUYS LISTEN.

MASONS WERE OUTTED D1 AND A HARD INNO WAS CLAIMED D2. THERE IS A FLIPPED PSYCHOLOGIST. THE NIGHT KILLS COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN STACKED. THERE CAN BE A DAMN KILLER AND THEY ARE PROBABLY FLAKEY AND WANT VP ALIVE.

I also feel like Titus going with VP on a vote is strange given 4150, 4151, 4164, 4409, 4515, (then a very questionable Malcolm vote that comes out of almost nowhere, only thing I can find to back this up is... well 4515 the last post I linked) 4714, 4721 (just that? Literally Titus' sus just kinda fizzles out on VP), (now just shading Math for tunneling VP?) 5003, 5013 (... no not really?).

I am missing some piece of the jigsaw here aren't I?

YEAH NO SHIT. LISTEN TO ME!!

[Frogsterking]

GUYS LISTEN.

MASONS WERE OUTTED D1 AND A HARD INNO WAS CLAIMED D2. THERE IS A FLIPPED PSYCHOLOGIST. THE NIGHT KILLS COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN STACKED. THERE CAN BE A DAMN KILLER AND THEY ARE PROBABLY FLAKEY AND WANT VP ALIVE.

Who cares?

Are you voting VP right now luminary or did you make up some excuse?

[Frogsterking]

GUYS LISTEN.

MASONS WERE OUTTED D1 AND A HARD INNO WAS CLAIMED D2. THERE IS A FLIPPED PSYCHOLOGIST. THE NIGHT KILLS COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN STACKED. THERE CAN BE A DAMN KILLER AND THEY ARE PROBABLY FLAKEY AND WANT VP ALIVE.

I am going to ask this, if there is indeed a separate killer wouldn't they want to townside here anyways?

I don't think D1 or D2 looks good to go townside at all

[Frogsterking]

Which is like ?? given the fact they have pocketed VP like this entire time.

yes... they have.... wait, do you think titus is maf? I'm confused now

I don't know how to read this. Was it a shift of brainpower in the middle of a typed sentence?

LOL

I think Frogster is being overly Orson Welles type dramatic here. WTactualF. Are we buying the game at this point?

I'm taking this as a compliment!

Baltar, you want me to vote whom?

You're fine. Kill me today. Kill frog tomorrow

That's what I thought. Got it.

Yes!

[Frogsterking]

Shoot Eyes for scum and Titus for killer IMO

[Frogsterking]

Sorry, let me rephrase that.

If VP flips town shoot me.

WHEN VP flips scum shoot Eyes for scum or Titus for killer.

[Frogsterking]

The narrative of phase 3 VP presented is pure creative fiction. I explained to VP what exactly was going through my mind with an ironclad timeline of things I actually posted. VP is probably leaning back in his chair drinking a cold beer and cracking himself up. There hasn't been an effort to actually sort my alignment from VP or ask me questions in good faith. VP reeks of a combination of "I can't believe I'm still getting away with this" scum and "I give up I'm dead" scum.

There are a lot of days ahead where we still need to vote correctly to win. I floated Eyes and Dease as potential scum buddies for VP and my best interpretation of Titus play today is that they are a killer who has been benefiting from VP's antics. I've never played with a killer before on Mafiascum but I've played setups with a killer a bunch on EpicMafia.

[Frogsterking]

The narrative of phase 3 VP presented is pure creative fiction. I explained to VP what exactly was going through my mind with an ironclad timeline of things I actually posted. VP is probably leaning back in his chair drinking a cold beer and cracking himself up. There hasn't been an effort to actually sort my alignment from VP or ask me questions in good faith. VP reeks of a combination of "I can't believe I'm still getting away with this" scum and "I give up I'm dead" scum.

There are a lot of days ahead where we still need to vote correctly to win. I floated Eyes and Dease as potential scum buddies for VP and my best interpretation of Titus play today is that they are a killer who has been benefiting from VP's antics. I've never played with a killer before on Mafiascum but I've played setups with a killer a bunch on EpicMafia.

This is tstbs.

What?

[Frogsterking]

The narrative of phase 3 VP presented is pure creative fiction. I explained to VP what exactly was going through my mind with an ironclad timeline of things I actually posted. VP is probably leaning back in his chair drinking a cold beer and cracking himself up. There hasn't been an effort to actually sort my alignment from VP or ask me questions in good faith. VP reeks of a combination of "I can't believe I'm still getting away with this" scum and "I give up I'm dead" scum.

There are a lot of days ahead where we still need to vote correctly to win. I floated Eyes and Dease as potential scum buddies for VP and my best interpretation of Titus play today is that they are a killer who has been benefiting from VP's antics. I've never played with a killer before on Mafiascum but I've played setups with a killer a bunch on EpicMafia.

This is tstbs.

What?

It sounds like you're lining up mizzes.

How would you know they're mizzes?

[Frogsterking]

That's a BS accusation. I can scum read more than one player at a time without scum intent. And I'm town so if we did actually chain lim the bottom of my PoE we would wreck scum team and Titus going for the big ego solo win.

[Frogsterking]

Remind me who that is?

Listen Titus is there any reason you wouldn't have played the same way up until now as the killer or would you say you're still well within your killer range?

[Frogsterking]

Remind me who that is?

Listen Titus is there any reason you wouldn't have played the same way up until now as the killer or would you say you're still well within your killer range?

I almost never think I am out of range for anything. That being said, if you think I am a serial killer, I'd have to townside right now anyway.

If there is a serial killer, the only person I could see it being is Enchant.

I think I'm missing something about how townsiding works on this site. Why would a serial killer have to townside here?

I think frogster is putting out wild theories because I said he is outside of his tinfoil town meta.

This is either scum agenda posting or total town confbias. FYPOV I'm scummy for not sharing my theories about the game state and I'm also scummy when I share my theories about the game state. I told you I tend to loosen up the smaller the group gets.

I'm ready to move on. I don't feel confident but I want this game to move towards being over because I am not having fun. Can we kill VP yet, or do we need to post 40 more pages of nothing?

This game would be more fun if everyone didn't just dig their heels in about stuff. I'm willing to let myself go to end that, but folks (including you) need to seriously re-evaluate on my flip green.

So are you going to take your own advice and consider that we're stuck in a TvT deathtunnel? I did reflect and decide it's a possibility. I thought of a detail that you missed about the game you played with me which could have lead to a TvT.

[Frogsterking]

I thought of a detail that you missed about the game you played with me which could have lead to a TvT.

Go on

This was from the scum PT of the game I played with you, VP:

Town apathy is through the roof. So here’s the issue. I’m having a hard time seeing where the execution actually lands tonight. I think Frogsterking is the most likely mis-execution, but we have a near hard clear un Mathblade who is Scumming it up unbelievably, and a clear in S_S. You’re the Gunsmith, and the only player seriously questioning the balance of the game is Aristeia who I can clearly see is extremely strong.

Frogsterking is too fickle with their pushes so they’ll never get sufficient traction to truly push something through, but it’s becoming harder and harder to push there.

I did struggle to get "sufficient traction" in that game and after I read this from the scum PT I started consciously attempting to be less "fickle" with my pushes.

I understand you're a decade older than me and have completed a lot of forum mafia games so you're maybe not anticipating a lot of adaptation between a small number of games. However since the game you played with me VP I've completed I think four regular MS games which for me is almost double my lifetime amount of completed forum mafia games, and those aren't counting the several rapid games I played, and that's given me time to try to learn to be less "fickle" with my pushes.

you know who the absolute best targets are to try to drive a wedge in town and sow distrust? frog and nero.

You know I called Frog scum yesterday, right? People were just too far up their own asses to listen. Maybe today, you will listen. Guess who wanted to lim Yeet? Guess who had unexplainable flops on and off Galron?

Guess who hasn't been scumhunting at all this game and was so timid with his vote D1? You getting the picture of Frog scum yet?

I don't expect you to follow me, but don't act like my reads are out of nowhere flips to assuage you. You don't even factor in my reads. You're just town by PoE primarily, so I'm done fighting with you.

Having an incorrect read is not the same as a terrible read.

correct. His reads are confirm biased and poorly reasoned.

What are your bulletpoint reasonings for FrogsterScum?

-

He voted camped Yeet D1 forever until I started pushing him. This is very unusual to me because I just finished a game with Frogster where he was wild ass voting everyone in the game as town with tinfoil theories.

Here, he is timid and afraid to move his vote around.

-

The only pushes he has made all game have bene Fua/Enchant, Yeet, Galron and myself. I know I'm town. I know Yeet is town. I think it's highly likely Galron is town.

Those are the safe bets, too. Not looking good.
- His reasoning around the Galron wagon yesterday does not hold up to scrutiny. (There is a fairly in depth analysis of this in my big post opening the day, and follow up questioning of Frogster today).

My idea for a TvT is that my attempts to be less "fickle" in my pushes are interpreted by you as being "timid" and "afraid".

The TvT narrative looks something like this:

Town!VP sees uknown!Froggy voting less (which is perceived as "timid") and pushing Enchant, Yeet and trying to push down Galron. Town!VP eventually says
"Hey fuck this frog character this guy is too timid and wagons town" and then starts screaming for unknown!Froggy's head. Other players don't really tone read Froggy as timid so town!VP loses credibility by pushing this angle. Meanwhile town!Froggy sees unknown!VP pushing meta tells against him calling him "timid" while unknown!VP successfully pushes down Wu, Malcolm and tries to push down Galron. Eventually town!Froggy says
"Hey fuck this VP character this guy makes stuff up about me and wagons town" leading to a TvT deathtunnel.

[Frogsterking]

while unknown!VP successfully pushes down Wu, Malcolm and tries to push down Galron. Eventually town!Froggy says
"Hey fuck this VP character this guy makes stuff up about me and wagons town" leading to a TvT deathtunnel.

This is not accurate though?

You were scum reading me before Malcom even flipped, and I was very far from pushing galron. My vote went there briefly as a potential avenue, but then I lobbied to save galron.

I'm not sure the sequence of events you're describing is wholly accurate there.

Now, to your bigger point about adaptation: ok, I can give you some benefit of the doubt that your playstyle is malleable so early in your career. I am curious if you think this us TvT, do you think scum have been pushing me this game? And who do you think is a likely scum candidate in the hood?

Yes I think there is at least one scum pushing both of us, and I think this holds true in both a TvS scenario and a TvT scenario.

My idea for the scum in a TvS scenario is that Dease was the scum on your wagon D2 and they got on early D2 to distance and stayed there and are planning to get on late today provided you're unable to turn things around. If we're TvT though then my null slots April and Dragons I FoS.

For my own wagon, both times I remember my wagon flaring up Datisi/Titus and Eyes were a part of it. I think Titus' iso looks more like a solo player who is benefiting from Frog vs VP and VP vs Nero and doesn't really want any of us to die too soon but is also more than willing to hammer anyone. My theory is that either the kills on the first mason or on yeet were stacked, and the other kill was stacked or lost through nightplay mechanics. Apparently there is something I don't understand about serial killers on this website though because Cape and Titus now have both said the killer would need to be "townside" here and I don't understand what that means.

Eyes also has jumped on my wagon both times and wasn't compliant with my questioning D1 and the only consistent element of their gameplay I can see is their underlying desire to have me killed.

As for the hood I have no idea how I'm supposed to tell between Nero and Cape who could be scum if those are my choices. Based on dayplay alone and no setup or mech spec I would conclude that the hood is all town or you and/or Galron are scum. One possibility I just thought of though for a scum in the hood is if there are multiple anonymous traitors in the setup so the scum in the hood doesn't really know what's happening and that's helping their acting. From my point of view it's most likely that you're the scum in the hood, second most likely no scum in the hood, third most likely it's anyone including Galron and the setup has multiple traitors. The reason why in the third scenario Galron is included is because I think if the scum team is mostly traitors then Galron would be more likely to be the slot to send in the night kill N1 causing a false clear from psychologist.

[Frogsterking]

And who do you think is a likely scum candidate in the hood?

I guess if I had to choose one of Nero, Cape and Galron to be scum in the hood gun to head I would choose Nero on PoE because Nero seems significantly more experienced so I'd weight Galron's psuedo mech clear > Cape's town tells > Nero's town tells.

[Frogsterking]

and frog i would not get too attached to the idea of a serial killer. i think it's v unlikely. and i don't think it would be titus anyway if there was one

my guess is townsiding means, mafia is winning rn, and if they get too far ahead then serial killer would prob lose. so if they existed here, they would want to play on the town side of things and hunt mafia to even things up more

Apparently there is something I don't understand about serial killers on this website though because Cape and Titus now have both said the killer would need to be "townside" here and I don't understand what that means.

What they are saying is that the SK needs to support the town early game and eliminate mafia. Winning as a SK is extremely difficult because you basically need to survive the whole game, so if you are an SK, the mafia probably suspect you exist and you need to eliminate them as fast as possible.

That's what they mean by townside.

Oh, it's a strategic idea not a mechanical one. Considering this seems to be common knowledge here I'd imagine the winrate of serial killer may historically have been even lower on epicmafia than it's been on mafiascum.

[Frogsterking]

i've played survivor with DV before

if we played mafia together it's been a while

i mean they're really charismatic and friendly but they're also good at the game of survivor which sometimes requires you to be sneaky and lie to people. the two games have some similarities but they're fundamentally different so i'm not sure this is a helpful line of inquiry

I agree and I don't think there is much else to go on. Dease vibe is positive and friendly but based on their own admission they approach the game this way as scum too. Their completed large normal scumgame a couple years back shows they're capable of their play here so far as scum.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, did you look at any town games of mine as well or just the scum game?

viewtopic.php?f=160&t=85648&start=600I

I'm reading this one now

[Frogsterking]

Yeah finally and no more wifom worries about Enchant. I finished reading that Team Mafia game I linked with dease!town in it and now I kind of think Dease is town.

[Frogsterking]

We should have short days more often!

There is a saying in chess tournaments, "long think, bad move."

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: fireisred

I don't know April's alignment but the idea that fire is so sure of it doesn't read genuine at all.

[Frogsterking]

I'm also suspicious of frogster but I can't really artiuclate it right now. Over night I was too focused on STD

In other words you're chainsawing me because I finally stepped out of fire's pocket

[Frogsterking]

I'm also suspicious of frogster but I can't really artiuclate it right now. Over night I was too focused on STD

In other words you're chainsawing me because I finally stepped out of fire's pocket

What does that even mean? You haven't pushed scum and I'm the bad guy?

What does stepped out of fire's pocket mean? you nthink fire is scum?

It's kinda susp yeah you didn't really say anything about your read of me until I called fire out for his shitty townsend on april

[Frogsterking]

i caught titus and

This looks like the plan IMO. Fire made sure Malcolm and VP went down first and positioned himself to get credit for Titus.

[Frogsterking]

frog is scum who did not plan well enough for today and is trying to look genuine but did not choose the correct direction to go lol

i caught titus and convinced like all of the wagon to vote there. give me my poe for today at least

Looks like I caught a live one

[Frogsterking]

There's that froggy flash wagon reappearing the second I push fire, with fire insisting april has to be town and scorpius insisting april has to be scum, both jumping on frog

[Frogsterking]

Are you really town Scorp

[Frogsterking]

Can I convince you to reconsider on your suspicions? It could cost us the game

[Frogsterking]

@scorp

[Frogsterking]

Really frogster? fire? The "I don't know April's alignment" comment thing felt big forced.

Thanks

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: fire

I mean maybe I overreacted a little bit, it all made sense in my head. Fire pushed through malcolm and then vp and fire was right there to get credit for titus. IDK I'm go to sleep.

[Frogsterking]

fire is a bit town based on VC

I thought fire looked worse based on votes

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: fire

I mean maybe I overreacted a little bit, it all made sense in my head. Fire pushed through malcolm and then vp and fire was right there to get credit for titus. IDK I'm go to sleep.

fire is a bit town based on VC

I thought fire looked worse based on votes

No you know what I have good ideas sometimes VOTE: fireisred

[Frogsterking]

fire is a bit town based on VC

I thought fire looked worse based on votes

where?

I think fire has good and towny content anyways

I kinda wanna flip eyes.

I would flip April before you.

I saw this post about why you thought Scorpius was not mafia, I didn't think as mafia, you would want to narrow your POE quite so much like that.

I don't know about fire anymore I think I townread them because I trust people who seem more analytical

[Frogsterking]

Can I convince you to reconsider on your suspicions? It could cost us the game

I hate when someone uses the word “us”.. just being honest here

You're gonna cost yourself the game

I think fire is trying to kill the frogs and scorps and I'm the only one that sees it

[Frogsterking]

cause i don't think you approach the last 2 days the way you did if you were maf partners with titus

Huh?

[Frogsterking]

I feel like I've been turned into some kind of a monster

[Frogsterking]

cause i don't think you approach the last 2 days the way you did if you were maf partners with titus

Huh?

that was @deas. i think his wincon as scum (especially considering who is left as possible partners) would have been to deepwolf and commit hard to getting on the side of the people who are leading the town. i don't think he votes for vp after expressing doubt there unless he genuinely believes he's likely maf. i don't think he would have ignored titus yesterday like he did. he's also just been less engaged and communicative with people lately than he was earlier which i think is the opposite of what his scum approach would be. at first i thought maybe he was maf drifting away from town and having trouble reconnecting, but after seeing the flip im pretty sure he's town

fire are you town

[Frogsterking]

frog do you already know the answer to that

but yes, obv

I've been off my meds for a few hours

[Frogsterking]

That's gross. I love it

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: fire

I'm sorry 6990 reminded me why I townread fire. I'm off my meds right now.

VOTE: April

[Frogsterking]

don't think its likely I vote outside frog/eyes/cape today

I thought fire voted me here in 6863

[Frogsterking]

don't think its likely I vote outside frog/eyes/cape today

I thought fire voted me here in 6863

im not in a hurry to vote bc I want to talk more first. but if i were voting now it would prob be on you

k VOTE: fire

I'll post something better when i get some rest and im back on my meds

[Frogsterking]

I'm also curious why fire is making these statements considering I've never completed a single game with him.

[Frogsterking]

in the one scumgame that i saw, frog started off pretty strong and then fell apart quickly and stopped doing any sort of solving once he got under pressure. he got elimmed d1. i don't think he knows how to play lategame scum.

I didn't make it very far because no one town read me and that's the only scum game I've played in years. My play in this game looks nothing like my play in that game which is my only scum game and happened to also be in a large setup with some similar players. I didn't make it past the first day for a reason and it doesn't make sense that you believe based on that game my play here is my scum play.

If you read Bunnies like you're claiming you did, then you would've known that my play this game closely resembles my town game and I've even been in a situation very similar to this recently as town.

In that game MathBlade was clear and tunneled me even though my play made no sense as scum and multiple people believed I was town. Town sheeped his vote even though Math successfully wagoned three or four townies back to back. A parallel to this game where Math attempted to prevent making the same mistakes but now is falling back on old habits.

Town did shit all and started wagoning me and long story short I replaced out, and my replacement Nero Cain killed himself by selfvote in like 40 minutes. He did it because it's so obnoxious to play as town with a clear MathBlade ranting about the virtues of his solve you know is wrong while your mutual townreads go deer in the headlights and eventually vote you out.

I think you're probably scum because you seem to be benefitting from this situation and I don't buy your perspective on my meta, I think it's a half assed excuse to sheep tunneled MathBlade.

I townread Scorpion but Scorpion was scum with me in my only completed scum game which just ended so he should know this isn't my scum game. Scorpion seems to be benefitting from this situation as well and is a much more capable scum player than I am so I think I may have been outplayed a little bit.

There's a lot more solving to be done but I'm not going to do that until MathBlade is dead or I see activity in the thread which indicates my townreads aren't going to sheep his shitty read on me and fire's sketchy opportunistic meta push on me.

[Frogsterking]

in contrast, in his town games,

With only one scum game where I died on D1 there's nothing to contrast to my town game.

I'd like to know where you're getting your information, because I don't believe you read most of my games. I don't believe you read any. If you read Bunnies you would have mentioned it because of its deja vu vibe to this situation, which is kind of what you look for with meta in the first place.

There's literally no way for you to claim to have information about how my play changes between alignment unless you're lying or using ongoing games to get your meta information which is against the rules.

I think you're scum and making it up as you go along but now you're in trouble because when you checked my completed games for the first time you realized I only had 1 scum game and I died right away. Now you're full of shit and just hoping no one notices and sheeps Mathade.

The only way you could be town and come to this conclusion is if you used games that weren't completed yet to get the meta information you claim to have which is against site rules. The sad part is if you really did that not only did you break the rules, you caused a TvT which could have been avoided by doing your meta research properly and realizing that I'm town.

BAM

'gottem

[Frogsterking]

This is a sudden flip compared with Datisi's earlier expressed Scorp townread because of his "Luca Blight tell." I believe it supports Scorp town, and makes me question why Dragon gets no attention from this quarter.

What's the "Luca Blight" tell?

UNVOTE: fire

Having taken a step back from the game this feels more like a TvT

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: april Cape was townie by dayplay

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: april Cape was townie by dayplay

what did galron tell you about the nightplay?

If galron claimed Town Friendly Neighbor on me then I hard claim NOT receiving any messages

[Frogsterking]

Well this sucks

[Frogsterking]

ah yes, I remember now. Sorry again.

I think I would probably be comfortable going with scorpious or Eyes first. I would be interested in anyone wanting to weigh in on whether they think Eyes' role is possible to be town with the amount of town power that has already been confirmed.

Yes. SWIM (someone who isn't me) just had to learn that it's always possible the hard way and got flipped for it as TPR. SWIM has low confidence in their town play now.

[Frogsterking]

Prediction: If this flips town, Math will live and somehow find a way to blame me for it.

I am quite likely the only uncleared player who is not scum. I expect this game to end when Math decides to mislim me despite how painfully obvious my alignment should be because I did not strike his ego enough and dared to be right about a wide variety of topics, and I am preemptively mad about it.

VOTE: Frog

Luminary,

Are you familiar with the Jungian concept of ego death?

[Frogsterking]

I'm thinking Eyes and Galron have really low activity counts so start pressuring there and see what they do VOTE: Eyes

[Frogsterking]

Prediction: If this flips town, Math will live and somehow find a way to blame me for it.

I am quite likely the only uncleared player who is not scum. I expect this game to end when Math decides to mislim me despite how painfully obvious my alignment should be because I did not strike his ego enough and dared to be right about a wide variety of topics, and I am preemptively mad about it.

VOTE: Frog

Luminary,

Are you familiar with the Jungian concept of ego death?

Not really. I feel pretty confident there is going to be no point to this question.

The idea is that we build up assumptions to make the world seem less abstract and we avoid challenging those assumptions because it's effortful and induces psychic pain. When we're faced with incontrovertible evidence our assumptions are wrong (like being betrayed by someone close) our ego collapses and we experience psychic pain and everything seems more abstract. Jung suggested most of us actively avoid experiencing ego death because it's highly unpleasant. Jung also suggested going through it is important for the development of insight.

The comments here like "...Math will live and somehow find a way to blame me for it", "...dared to be right about a wide variety of topics", "...I am preemptively mad about it" and "I feel pretty confident there is going to be no point to this question" indicate to me that you make a lot of assumptions about the game. I also think you actively avoid challenging those assumptions. I think it can be AI because it's easy to fake because of the lack of subtlety required to perform it, and if you're town, it indicates you're likely to become confbias on your own ideas and make a mishammer yourself, making you a liability regardless of your alignment.

That's my point.

[Frogsterking]

@Eyes yoo hooooooo

[Frogsterking]

That vote on Eyes is one of the few pieces of action they've taken for a while, and it seems like a specifically chosen political vote, if that makes sense.

I have been playing a lot of Diplomacy on webdip, hopefully it's a sign of some positive change with my approach to social games.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster that reasoning seems… very early-game for this stage of the game.

Thank you

[Frogsterking]

I have a couple questions for you.

Why did you select these players to follow when you did:
N1 STD (No Action)

N3 Deas (No Action)

And second, if you scum read me all game why did you never follow me?

[Frogsterking]

I have a couple questions for you.

Why did you select these players to follow when you did:
N1 STD (No Action)

N3 Deas (No Action)

And second, if you scum read me all game why did you never follow me?

As I said I picked the people to follow based on my own expectation of them making it long into the game. It would have been useless from my PoV to follow someone who was likely to get chopped soon anyway and that should also explain why I never followed you because I suspected you and expected you to go down sometime earlier.

Why did you expect D1 STD to survive for a long time and why did you expect D3 Dease to survive for a long time?

[Frogsterking]

STD presence wasn't much on D1 yet nobody was looking at him and it looked like there were at least 7 players that were being evaluated before anyone would even notice him. Deas was almost the same by D3. By D3 the game status looked like giving him a pass for a long time.

Who would you have picked to follow if you were me?

Yeet, April, Titus, Dease

[Frogsterking]

I would've seriously considered VP as well

[Frogsterking]

Eyes on this page is reminding me of something I've seen scum!Norwe do before. Eyes here:

Eyes, it’s interesting to me that you haven’t responded to people clearly doubting your claim. You’ve had a lot to say about a lot of things, and based on your play here I would have expected you to be more outraged that your claim isn’t believed

Would it make the game status better if I went berserk? Is there anything I can say or do that would make my claim more believable to you/anyone else? I guess we both know the answer to these two questions so what's the point?

Now if you have some specific questions I'd be happy to answer them, but outraged I am not going to act.

@Math: You do realize that you have been shielding Frog for as long as you have been playing in this game, right? May I request you remind us of HEM's read on Frog in the masons thread?

I don’t remember I am too lazy and feeling sick and you’re probably scum so??

What does this have to do with my question? And then people complain I am not participating enough! Sheesh!

Trying to present as more calm by temperament than they clearly are. I think it's because scum are trying to appear higher status so they don't get limmed, and/or to pocket, because we perceive people who are less emotionally reactive as being higher status. I remember scum!Norwe saying a similar line to me in this game: viewtopic.php?f=83&t=88804

In the context here Norwe was put at (fake) e-1 intentionally by a townie (theworst) as a reaction test, and I reacted to it way more than Norwe did.

Um ok, don't see why vibing with reads would be important.
@Frog I find your reaction a bit odd, why did you act like Worst was suicidal scum or something.

I'm trying to be more relaxed while playing mafia games so if i start screaming and being unpleasant i will take breaks.

In this case it actually worked, I got pocketed by scum!Norwe shortly after we interacted here.

Eyes doesn't seem to be either warm or emotionally unreactive naturally by temperament, more examples: 486, 2421, 6336

A part of this theory is that you would expect scum!Eyes to have a preferred style of scum play (lurking, low effort) because of the Withdrawal aspect of neuroticism, which does seem to be how Eyes behaves. Eyes' iso lines up with the way you would expect a lurking low effort scum player to approach the game.

To play Devil's Advocate I did spot this in Eye's iso:

Interesting why the immediate claim Eyes?

Because I was

4-shot

and I couldn't believe I lived long enough to use all my shots and without even having to claim earlier. I am happy to get it all off my chest and besides you said we only have one mislim at hand so I wanted you to have all possible resources/info before you

I think some players put more pressure on themselves when they roll TPR and it ends up making their play worse (I do this.) I remember in another game too with Dragons here, they got mislimmed really quickly on D1 as like a Tracker or something, and Dragons was agitated moreso by the early BW than I saw them get as both town OR scum. I can relate to wanting to get the reports out before you die and feeling pressure to choose between whether towntelling/not towntelling will cause you to have to out/die sooner. So I don't think it makes sense to say Eyes is scum because they seem defensive or easily annoyed and claim that they aren't, in fact I think anything unusual about Eyes' behavior here could be explained by receiving a TPR and adjusting the expectations they put on their play based on that.

I'm only arguing that I think it's in 7811 does it become a scum tell.

My theory is that town!Eyes feels pressure to execute their townplay better because of the status that comes with their role, and I think Eyes in 7811 isn't like calibrated to that at all, this Eyes is more concerned with appearing to be able to regulate their emotions well.

If my theory here is correct then this is also a non-associative tell with Dease, because Eyes is trying to appear skilled at regulating their emotions in an attempt to pocket Dease. Town!Eyes would write a different version of 7811 where they appear more stressed because they're in their head about whether they played their role correctly and let the town down or something.

[Frogsterking]

Okay April is doing something to try and get townread and I recognize it because it's something I used to do when I played on EpicMafia. Also, Azumarill's entrance probably isn't AI, and if it's AI in any direction it's NOT townie. I don't believe that April really thinks its townie like they say in 7857. And I think I saw Azumarill TMI on something.

Azumarill:

Day 6-
Math coming off really awkward today
Frogster seems to be the preferred lim for people today, slot doesn't look good.
Scorpius is looking towny compared to when I played against them as scum.
April looks townie so far
Other slots look meh, lots of talk from my predecessor.
I'm not willing to vote for StD today because of my result. I'll look for context but we can do better.

Some things don't add up here, like "...not willing to vote for StD today...I'll look for context but we can do better", and "Other slots look meh, lots of talk from my predecessor." StD isn't even getting pushed right now by like anyone, first of all, so why would town!Azumarill first thought be to go and start townsending StD?

And what "Other slots" is Azumarill referring to as being meh, and how is there "lots of talk"from Eyes? I think there is almost NO talk from Eyes.

I really hate the line on me a lot too, I'm the "preferred lim for people today" because it doesn't specify WHO the people preferring to lim me are. The fact that Azumarill even chose to include a line on me at all looks like mid-effort scum bread crumbing a read progression on me. And also this whole post looks like looking-for-reasons-to-read different players rather than actually getting reads.

Remember again in 7857 April claims to find this entrance townie.

This was the part from Azumarill I noticed that I thought might be TMI:

I'm taking a break from reading this monster odf a game for now but if anyone wants to converse then go ahead.

We have 2 lims before game

so I'd appreciate having conversation before further votes in any direction.

How does Azumarill know we have 2 lims left? THat looks like a TMI slip to me. The comments about "I'm taking a break reading this monster..." and "...I'd appreciate having a conversation before further votes in any direction" are potentially LAMIST by implying rereading the game and wanting to reflect on reads respectively. These comments from Azumarill also bring me to my other point, what I wanted to say about April and what I think April is doing to get townread.

April:
First of all April said something potentially LAMIST in a similar way as I pointed out above in 7829.

More interesting though April is trying to simulate townie reflection/second guessing a few times now I think. Here:

I should probably chill, I guess.

UNVOTE: Frog

make sure i'm not running into a game losing TownFrog misfade.

VOTE: Frogster

For VPB.

LOL what changed here? I think the unvote + vote is fake to make the April slot seem more dynamic and like they're reflecting on their read on me. I also think April tries to set up for it again:

+ I want to reevaluate Mega, and let them post for a bit, actually see where their head is at/what actions they take.

I think April could be setting up for a fake Azumarill readflip now where they pretend to scum read Azumarill, and then become very certain they're town (at this point maybe to get the momentum to sway a final needed hammer vote onto me.)

I know that April had the PT inno and that it's less likely on a probabilistic sense for the slot to flip scum, and I think there IS likely to be at least one traitor because it synergizes mechanically with the roles that have been flipped, and April on a behavioral level I'm starting to hardlock as being a traitor.

[Frogsterking]

This shitty distancing isn't going to work.

Math is the other mason claim

[Frogsterking]

At this point I'm assuming 1 town and 1 groupscum on my wagon and April is traitor trying to push my wagon through. I guess it could be 1 town and 2 traitors. I can't tell between scorp and luminary who the last town is. If anyone has a good case for why I should trust one or the other I'd like to hear it.

I've pretty much just accepted Dragons and Dease are town and if not I lose the game. I looked at some of my previous games with Dragons and I don't think the low activity is AI, in fact (though based on a limited sample size) I think Dragons might post more when scum if there is any difference.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Scorpius

Now with the benefit of hindsight I think the analysis in 7031, 7036, and 7044 look pretty townie compared to what the rest of us have put out over D5 - D7. Also luminary being willing to re-evaluate my slot based on the nightkill is pretty townie since they could easily just keep pushing me.

Scorp has voted my slot multiple times and now is voting luminary and as long as I'm right about luminary we should be safe limming Scorp here.

[Frogsterking]

I mean we were both scum reading Skitter but also scum reading each other. I think if we had gotten Skitter then we might have stopped scum reading each other. Between the 2 of us we were scumreading the whole scum team.

Yeah there were maybe 4 townies that had really accurate reads and were really forceful about pushing them through. If they had townread each other there would have been a lot of early scum flips instead of town flips.

this game is an actual shit show, and frogsterking was king shit

It seemed like bad stuff kept happening to Town and it always benefitted me or my team. It was important that there were more experienced players on the scum team like Datisi and skitter at the start and then Titus when they replaced in; I think they played a big part in creating opportunities for me to hide or get town read.

really rough that the two investigatives both hit scum n1 but both were false innos

Credit to that goes to Datisi 100%. Datisi said skitter should perform the N1 kill because they're more likely to be investigated by a psychologist. Datisi sowed that bad luck unto Town with a conscious decision based on foresight.

[Frogsterking]

I think this setup is pretty mechanically balanced which is cool because it's a 5 player scum team which I've never seen before. I'm going to elaborate on this below:

The roles given to either alignment made sense together and were a good balance of being guessable and unexpected.

I think I would assess this setup as being fun to play from the POV I had as the Mafia Goon, maybe 7/10 or 8/10, I would definitely play it again. I think the flavor and modding were classy and added positively to the experience of playing the game.

I think if you ran this setup 100 times you would end up with town winning 55 games and scum winning 45 games.

I think not all 100 games will be equal though and that's important based on your design goals for running this set up:

I think around the 85th percentile of overall Town strength the games turn into a massacre. So in addition to the expected RNG swing a dozen or so of those 55 town wins would be really no fun to play at all for the scum, because the dayplay is too strong combined with the amount of mechanical power town has access to. I think this Town had some strong Town players and the average Townies weren't bad either, I think this Town was maybe in the 60th or 70th percentile of strength. So this setup was well balanced for the players who played it and demanded good play from both alignments, it was interesting and wasn't too predictable or too unpredictable, and I expect it to be well balanced for most other experienced groups that play it. If that was the goal then as a player I felt this setup was all of these things

I think if the design goal is to create a setup that can be engaging for both alignments in a situation with experienced players where the overall Town strength is around the 85th percentile or higher, then some of the mechanical power Town has access to needs to be taken away. I think with a couple more soul reads, a couple more lines of questioning, a little more group cohesion, the amount of Town power is too much for the scum to achieve effective counterplay, even with a 5 person scum team, unless those 5 people happen to work together for the CIA or equivalent agency.

Thank you very much for running this setup, I enjoyed it very much and I'm glad that my team won. I hope my feedback as a player on the setup will be helpful.

[Frogsterking]

I had more deadlines than Woodward and Bernstein in 1973.

Lmao