Mafia 33: Checkmate - Game over!

[Yosarian2]

Hello all. It'll take me a while to read through the thread, I'll try to read through and post something of content some time in the near future.

[Yosarian2]

So, so far, we have 16 dead, and only 1 dead scum? That’s really not good. If the game started out 25% scum (which seems like a fairly normal number at mafiascum), that would mean 8 scum to start with; if that's true, then out of the 16 people we have left, 7 of them are scum. We might be in a “miss a lynch and lose” situation right now. Even if there's only 5 or 6 scum left, when we had 5 people drop dead in a single night, it's possible that if we don't hit scum today, we could lose tonight.

The one thing that makes me think we’ve got a chance of beating the scum is that there are probably multiple scum groups; one of the alignment (Nanook) cops was scum, and what’s the point of having a scum alignment cop unless there are multiple scum groups, right? Still, even though it might not be an auto-loss with multiple scum groups, we still don't want to get into a situation where the good guys are a minority. For that reason, I'd suggest that any vigs act VERY CAREFULLY tonight, and not worry about targeting people for color reasons tonight. I can understand vigs going crazy early as they were likely to hit either a mafia or someone of the other color, but black or white dosn't matter if the mafia wins, which could happen very soon now if we make any mistakes now.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) My first post was just a quick analysis of the general situation of the game, coming from someone on the outside. I can understand how you might think it scummy that my first post said that the town (or towns, I suppose) is in trouble, but frankly, that's what it looks like to me right now.

[Yosarian2]

STD, its still not nice.

The idea of multiple families and vig's contradicts the fact that there is little scum crossfire.

Yeah, if that's the case, the scum have been very lucky so far with only 1 scum dead of a nightkill. What's the alternative, though? One scum group that can make multiple kills each night? I've never seen that before, that seems like it might be unbalanced to me.

If there are 8 scum in 2 groups, all Bishops and Knights, either by piece or by color, then we must have 2 vigilantes, the Queens. In order for all kills to add up for night 2, a fifth killing group must be present. This would either mean one side is unballanced, there is a different kind of piece, or the scum groups are uneven. For example 3/3/2 or 2/2/4 instead of 4/4 groups. This is probable because some nights had 3 kills, meaning that up to 3 doctors needed to be right for 6 kills per night.

Still speculating, another possibility would be 2 mafia groups, 2 SK's, and 2 vig's, with the vigs not being very active so far. 2 mafia groups and 4 vigs also seems possible. Because it's a chess theme, I would tend to doubt that he would break the symmetry; symmetrical sides all around would seem to fit the setting better, IMHO.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah...if you look at Iammars's games in general, he tends to toss in one-liner jokes fairly often, and in the games I've been in with him where he has been scum I haven't noticed him bantering more with his scum partners. I really don't buy this argument at all.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah...if you look at Iammars's games in general, he tends to toss in one-liner jokes fairly often, and in the games I've been in with him where he has been scum I haven't noticed him bantering more with his scum partners. I really don't buy this argument at all.

[Yosarian2]

Its almost impossible to have six killers because there were 3 kills night 2, but tis the only plausable solution I see. I have a strong feeling that if there are 2 mafias they are by color and not by piece so that they do not kill eachother off.

Well, the queens were both vigs and investigators, right? So they would probably only use their vig powers after they investigted and found a scum; doing an investigation is probably a much better move then making a random kill if you're pro-town. That might be what happened with Nannok; a queen probably spotted him as scum one night and killed him the next. So if we had a sitation with two vig/queens and 4 scum killers or killing groups, most nights you'd only have the 4 scum trying to make a kill, and we did start with at least two protective roles (the kings).

As for mass claiming...well, if everyone but the scum told the truth, it could help. If the scum all claimed pawn, then we'd know we had something like 7 more pawns then we should, and that would greatly narrow down the possibilities. Of course, the scum could still claim their own roles; we don't even know if some pieces are all scum or if the scum are spread throught the board yet. I don't know...if it turns out that "all knights and bishops are scum" or something like that, then a mass claim could help us, but right now I'm not sure we have enough information for a mass claim to do us much good.

[Yosarian2]

The thing is, it seems like the only way for the town to win right now is for scum to kill each other, and that's assuming they don't already know each others' identities. They've avoided killing each other so far, somehow.

Well, we know that one of the scum groups had a alignmemt cop working for them, so that could explain how they've avoid cross-fire kills for the most part, if both (or all, or whatever) scum groups have an alignment cop and have been focused on taking out good guys. Now that one of the alignment cops are dead, perhaps our luck will improve a little as far as that goes. Also, at this point with the scum groups doing so well, one would think that the right move for them would be to target each other; if there are two mafias, and mafia A tries to kill good guys tonight while mafia B tries to kill memebers of mafia A, then mafia B will have a huge advantage over all other factions going into the endgame. At this point, with the mafia group or groups ahead of the town, their biggest threat is each other, and if they act logically they should start trying to kill each other now. With scum alignment cops, hopefully the scum groups have some idea of who some other bad guys are and will go after them tonight.

You hear that, scummy people? Kill each other tonight, it's for your own good.

[Yosarian2]

All right. We have no good leads, nothing to go on, no one is posting, half of the game is really lurking, and almost half of the game is scum, and the mod is threatning a deadline. At this point, I would expect most scum to just stay in the background and try not to get lynched; no sense in a scum taking risks now, and a deadline only helps the scum, so I expect that several of our scum are amoung the lurkers. So, both to dig out scum and to get the game going, I think it's time for a lurker list. As always, this is just based on me reading through the thread a few times and I may have missed a post somewhere; if so, let me know and I'll fix the list

The worst lurkers right now are:

Dranko20 –Last posted on May 20
Fuldu –Last posted on May 23
help im a bug Last posted on April 8 (!!!)
PookyTheMagicalBear -Last posted on May 13
StevieT92 -Last posted on May 20

First of all, is Help Im A Bug still even in this game? He's listed as alive on the first page. If so, he's either completly forgotten about the game and needs a mod prod, or he needs to be replaced.

Out of the other four hardcore lurkers we have right now, I would think the odds of any one of them being scum is pretty high right now. I'm going to

vote:PookyTheMagicBear

to start with.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) As I said before, I don't think "Iammars joked with someone who later turned out to be scum" is much of a scum tell, especally in his case. For now, I'm more suspicious of the lurkers; it's in the scum's best interest for the day to end with no progress or information at this point, and that's where we seem to be heading, partly because half the town never posts.

[Yosarian2]

Erm, are you trying to role-claim pawn, Iammars?

[Yosarian2]

Erm, a color claim really shouldn't save you at this point.

I don't know...the only way I can think of to check Iammars's claim would be to have the survivng 5 black pawns roleclaim, and even that wouldn't work if we have any scummy pawns or any scummy people who want to fake a black pawn claim.

[Yosarian2]

Bah. People seem to really like killing me. Go town!

[Yosarian2]

Hahaha...brilliant ending, pooky. If you hadn't done that, no one would have ever been able to convince anyone else to vote for anyone, the day could never have ended, and the game would have ended in a three way stalemate, which I suppose is approperate enough for a chess game.

It was a very interesting game, even if I was only actually in the game for something like five minutes before I got killed, heh.

I don't know about the "town always wins with multiple scum groups", Speedy. You have to make the scum groups stronger to compensate, sure, but usually from what I've seen the scum group who plays better outlasts the other scum group.

By the way, why did all the scum groups kill those three black pawn townies that night? Yeah, they were confirmed innocents, but I would have expected the mafia groups to be shooting at each other by that point.