Mafia 33: Checkmate - Game over!

[Yaw]

Vote: BabyJesus

for spamming and being generally unproductive.

Besides, I want to see if I can make BabyJesus cry.

[Yaw]

No, making BabyJesus cry is a joke, denoted by the laughing smiley.

Annoying the crap out of me is the reason for the vote. Besides which, it's day 1 and we need a bandwagon somewhere, so that's as good a reason as any.

[Yaw]

I really, really need a vote count.

Dranko -- what's this about Coron and you?

[Yaw]

Before we get too close to lynching someone, we should probably discuss how we want to handle claims and defenses. I'm a bit scared of this game breaking if we handle this normally, and I really don't want to see that happen. I signed up to play, not to win on a setup technicality.

(And for those who doubt my sincerity here, check out Hobbit Mafia, where I figured out the game was broken early on and reiterated several times that we shouldn't just break it by mass claiming. And I was town.)

[Yaw]

It's our duty to break the game, if possible. We're playing to win, after all.

But in this game, it's likely to come down to a coin flip. Whichever side (black or white) has the lead tomorrow can break the game wide open. I don't want the game determined by such a lack of skill.

[Yaw]

Sigh...

See, that's what could happen if this were played

normally

, which misses my point entirely. (Although assuming a SK is quite interesting when there's no evidence for or against one...)

The point is that tomorrow, if there were a mass roleclaim, whichever colour was in the lead would win. I'm trying to get people to think about how to avoid situations like that. What sort of information is safe to claim, and when, so that the game doesn't break early.

[Yaw]

To a degree both. I was just giving an example of one way in which we could end up with balance issues.

[Yaw]

And the second part follows from the first part...how?

[Yaw]

I'll admit I haven't played much with Coron, but...why does him being in this game warrant a lot of discussion? I could understand for IS, because his playing style tends to result in disoriented newbies. But Coron? I haven't seen anything to indicate that he's unreadable.

[Yaw]

The no lynch idea is interesting. For this game, it would effectively mean agreeing to start with night. It's sort of tempting in a way; I'll have to ponder it.

[Yaw]

Pooky's analysis with respect to roleclaiming sounds about right for now (that is, no colour-claiming).

Upon thinking of it, no lynch vs. lynch seems to come down to whether we want the scum to have the opportunity to give one side an advantage or not. If we no lynch, we're allowing the scum that chance. I'd rather we keep that initiative from them by lynching.

[Yaw]

Go Go Gadget Thread Resussitation!

[Yaw]

And here I was beginning to think I was the only one who felt that way...

Anyway, vote stays. Too many inconsistencies on the colour issue. (Why claim colour when everyone else says it's a bad thing, especially without attempting to justify it? And if you are going to claim colour, why would you do it at random without checking your role PM?)

[Yaw]

Well, 4 kills is an even number, so I'd assume from that information that our scum are divided by colour. I don't think it's likely that any vigilantes killed last night -- at least not 2 of them. So we have 4 scum groups. Maybe some SKs? Nothing necessarily suggests itself in terms of scum distribution.

Besides knowing how many scum there are -- which should become clear once we get one or two -- I don't see much point in speculating on what each chess piece role does at present.

[Yaw]

Well, this is a sorry little display. Why would you assume IS has a result? He

always

plays like this. (Plus, he can't have taken it off a post, since Yoko had none on day 1, and if this were because Yoko

didn't

post, then IS is just being a hypocrite since he didn't either.)

Vote: Coron

for waiting until it started to become a bandwagon before jumping on.

Also,

Mod:

Yoko needs prodding.

[Yaw]

Can you find where in that post I said I was going to vote at this time, i just said i was going to trust IS on this one.

The only thing of relevance IS said in his

only post this game

was his claim that Yoko is scum. So if you're trusting IS, you're saying that you believe that statement to be true. And if Yoko's scum, why wouldn't you vote for him? Especially when it's 14 to lynch?

FOS: SrykkerVerde

[Yaw]

huh? There's no indication that motives wouldn't be revealed upon death. The front post seems to indicate they would be, in that roles are revealed.

Besides, if you were right about that, why on earth would BJ, who was a

townie

know that motives aren't revealed while

you

aren't privy to this information?

[Yaw]

Well, without confirmation, behaviour trumps claim.

Unvote: Coron

,

Vote: StrykkerVerde

[Yaw]

Wow. IS gave an explanation. Have I slipped into the bizarro world?

At any rate, I'd still prefer to see for myself, so I'll hold off voting until I get a chance to reread.

As for the kills, I just don't believe 4 kills by one sniper is likely. Especially since in this game that would imply having someone capable of 4 kills in a night on each colour side. It's just way too swingy a role to be balanced, especially in multiples.

[Yaw]

First, I want to apologize for not getting around to rereading before now.

I found it amusing that I only had to read through two people to find a good scum link.

Vote: Iammars

Just read over his posts and Nanook's, and check out how they're all buddy-buddy. Several times.

I read through sycko too, and don't mind seeing him lynched. With only two posts, I have no evidence against him, though the intentional lurking annoys me as much as everyone else. I'd prefer to get Iammars today, of course, but if people prefer we'll get him tomorrow or a vig (since I think it's most likely the increase in kills last night was due to vig action) can get him tonight. I think we should at least wait to hear from the mod that he has definitely prodded sycko before lynching him. I much prefer that people have the chance to respond before being lynched.

[Yaw]

Iammars -- do you know if this is just for Acumencia, or for everything? I'd prefer an announcement that references Scum activities specifically, just so we can be sure. (From that announcement, it could be interpreted that AndrewS was dropping out of Acumencia stuff only.)

If I catch him on AIM, I'll ask and let everyone know.

[Yaw]

Dead men don't vote, IS.

At any rate, I had Iammars pegged yesterday, so

Vote: Iammars

[Yaw]

Buddying up to Nanook, who we know was scum.

[Yaw]

Olio is being awfully defensive. I read b_k's post as, "I seem to remember IS mentioning some reasoning yesterday for his vote on olio, would someone go back and check?" At any rate, the response is completely disproportionate.

FOS: olio

[Yaw]

No leads? I already pegged Iammars with evidence. What more do you people want? Why is there no bandwagon? Feh.

[Yaw]

I'll FOS Yaw for pushing an Iammars vote for almost no reason. There is nothing of any substance in the exchange between Nanook and Iammars. He gave a single-line response to a joke Nanook made about claiming purple with only 2 votes. As far as I can see that is the only interaction they've had, and you're convinced they're scum buddies?

I recall two interactions, not only one. And yes, that is a scum tell. In fact, the only time I got caught as scum in a game,

that

is what I did wrong.

[Yaw]

Must have been another game. In this one you've only voted for IS and BabyJesus before this vote.

[Yaw]

Oy. Even if I were scum (which I'm not), that would still be a ridiculously extreme statement. Sorry man, Hitler imagery just isn't funny.

[Yaw]

STD -- Look, I meant the comment more as a "don't do it again" sort of thing. I don't want this hanging over the thread, and I do recognize that Mafia lends itself to a certain amount of whimsical dark humour. You just have to be a bit careful with the historical references. I know it was just an unfortunate choice of words, and I do accept the apology. I wasn't getting the impression you were like Ann Coulter or anything.

Here, have a Sleeman's Cream Ale.

Those quotes are right, although I should probably note that I picked them up first by looking through Nanook's posts. Still, the relevant aspect is there -- crosstalk between scum away from the main focus of discussion.

(Full Disclosure: StD sent me an email with an apology, which I appreciate, which is why I wrote so much about that particular issue. It had absolutely nothing to do with anything other than "Sorry I implied you were Hitler", and I have no problem with forwarding it on to the mod if there is any concern about game integrity. I hope that this won't impact on the game any further.)

[Yaw]

Also, since we know what pieces are left, most piece claims other than pawn imply a colour, which sets those roles up as targets for the other side. So you'll

definitely

be getting all pawn claims, because nobody could afford to claim otherwise.

[Yaw]

No good leads?! I've already pointed out the person with the scum tell. There's only so much I can do if you're going to ignore me when I point out scum.

[Yaw]

I don't consider what you did after Nanook died a tell. It's what you were doing with him while you were both alive, and the fact that it went both ways. Remember,

I'm

picking this up from Nanook's posts first.

[Yaw]

I don't think it's necessarily scummy. I

do

wish you'd keep a reply window open separately from your rereading window, make notes in the former and post as many as possible at once...

[Yaw]

hm. I think I have an idea where that came from.

Vote: Crola

[Yaw]

No, nothing to do with Crola's posts. Take a look at tonight's kills and the roles that are left alive to see some of the possibilities of why I think BJ's voting for Crola.

Mind you, I wouldn't mind some confirmation my logic is on the right track, but I don't see many other reasons for why anyone would vote without an explanation right at the start of day 5. In the meantime, getting pressure on Crola might accomplish the same thing as any confirmation from BJ, and with 7 to lynch it's not like I'm putting him in any immediate danger.

[Yaw]

Erm. While I

do

approve of the bandwagon, I find the fact that people are following

me

somewhat disconcerting. This should be about whether or not you think BJ has something legitimate on Crola.

I just get this funny feeling some of you might be setting me up.

[Yaw]

Hey, I still have the knife wound from OO2!

(Yes, both of us are dead in that game, and the mod revealed that Pooky killed me, so it's ok.)

[Yaw]

Didn't we cover the problems with a mass role claim yesterday?

[Yaw]

Well, I hadn't counted the roles yet. By my count we have:

2 White Pawns, 1 Black Pawns
2 White Knights, 2 Black Knights
1 White Bishops, 1 Black Bishop
1 Black Rook
1 White King
1 Black Queen

Which isn't a lot of pawns, that's true. I still don't think people are going to suddenly claim special roles -- in three specific cases (Rook, King, Queen) that would be equivalent to a colour claim, and hence effectively suicidal, in two others (the Bishops) it would be admitting to scumminess. The colour issue just makes it disadvantageous to claim, because it sabotages the chances at achieving half of the stated goals of this game.

[Yaw]

Except that the king and queen are on opposite sides, and so

want

the other one dead.

[Yaw]

Well, I'm not the black pawn. I also think it's better to hear from

everyone

before lynching whoever is lying, just to make sure we have all possibilities covered.

This process would be a lot less frustrating if most of the players were actually paying attention...

[Yaw]

We are pretty sure there are 4 groups of 2 scum BlackBishops WhiteBishops BlackKnights WhiteKnights), divided by color and piece. There are 2 vigilantes (Queens), but didnt kill most nights due to an investigative ability.

I'm sorry,

we

? I only recall one other person saying that in this entire game.

Also, the only reason it was good for black pawns to claim is because at the time we were sure there was only one of them. Otherwise, nobody would have claimed at all.

[Yaw]

No. Actually, the idea seems plausible -- I just try to conclude such things based on evidence rather than conjecture. I objected to you claiming everyone was agreed on it, since that contradicted what has been said in thread.

[Yaw]

Enough pointing out targets for the scum with roleclaims. We know for certain Crola or Pie is scum. Just lynch one. That's all we have to do today -- lynch scum.

[Yaw]

See, this is silly and amusing. What's 3/7? 42%. So if you block randomly, there's a 42% chance it'll stop a kill. Those are pretty good odds, no? Way more than the 25% chance you just pulled out of your ass without any logic. Did you think nobody would do the math?

Besides, you're a vig. If you actually thought I was scum, wouldn't it be better to just night kill me? Or anyone else you thought was scum? 42% chance, remember.

[Yaw]

And yet you never once tried to get me lynched? I'm calling bullshit.

[Yaw]

I think he's lying about the investigation.

[Yaw]

I find that unlikely, judging by the number of kills we've seen so far. Don't have the chance to really go through them in depth at the moment, though.

And yes, I think we have a lynch. I hope we haven't been abandoned.

[Yaw]

Well, isn't this an interesting little situation we have here?

We all have to be

very

careful what we do right now. No side has a majority, which means no side can pull off a lynch without aid from another. When you add to that the fact that a lot of us have a pretty good idea who belongs to what group...well, this gets a bit delicate.

I'm actually not sure what to do at the moment. I expected to be dead, so didn't really think it out. Fuldu's idea of getting the scum groups into balance seems good, but I'd prefer to go through all the possibilities myself.

As for everyone else -- if you have any sense of the game state whatsoever, you won't be making quick votes, and you'll be very careful to ensure the person you lynch is on exactly the right side. Scum/not scum isn't good enough anymore.

[Yaw]

Six? There were only four sides at the start of the game.

[Yaw]

Oh right, I over-aggregated.

[Yaw]

Ok, thought about it. Lt. Origen is the right choice for today.

What it comes down to is 3 aggregate groups (easier to think of that way -- I know it's not exactly accurate) -- town, white scum, and black scum. If we lynch town today, black scum can better assert its numerical superiority, and is very likely to win that way. If we lynch white scum, that virtually eliminates the balance to the black scum, which would allow the black scum to pretty much roll over the town. Both of these options severely disadvantage one of the groups that has to consent to the action, so it's not in the interest of enough people to see them happen.

If we lynch black scum, that serves the town by eliminating scum (which town

must

do today), and it serves white scum by giving them a chance at winning with the scum sides evened out. In addition, it doesn't do too much to hurt the black scum -- they'd still be quite competitive in this game.

Vote: Lt. Origen

Third of 5.

[Yaw]

I'm just as surprised to be alive as you are.

[Yaw]

...what kind of tea?

[Yaw]

Ooo...I have sencha, but it's plain. I could see strawberries being very good in that...

Sure, why not? You have to vote for Lt. Origen, though. (You should be voting for him anyway -- from all the analysis above, it's the best choice for everyone except black scum.)

[Yaw]

Thank you, the tea is quite nice.

The problem I have with this plan is that in essence, you're asking both StD and I to trust that you'll actually roll the die, when you've set up the only possible situation in which you have the leverage to ensure you'll win. Unfortunately, IS had tainted such methods of chance for me.

From my perspective (and StD's), it's better to lynch today. Sure, if either of us gets lynched, we lose outright. But if we lynch the other scum, we win, and if we team up with each other to lynch town, we tie. Neither of these last two are bad outcomes from a scum perspective, and they give us some measure of control over our destinies.

I'm interested to hear what StD thinks about this. Also, I find it amusing that while I thought this game was hella broken over the past couple of days, we still end up here at a 3-person endgame in which three of the sides in this game all have a chance at winning. Shows what I know, I guess.

[Yaw]

Sugar in strawberry sencha?

I don't think AndrewS would have given either of us precedence in the case of plan D, so that isn't likely to work.

I'm also not sure we're going to find anything that's fair and doesn't involve giving too much power to one person. This is sort of unique in that mafia isn't normally "fair", so we don't usually get a chance to sit and chat about what outcome for the game is most desirable. Although we can try...

Didn't this game end when the kings died? We've already checkmated one another.

[Yaw]

Well, clearly we aren't lynching Pooky. That would be suicidal.

I still think it's better for StD and I to vote for each other. Increased odds of a scum win that way.

[Yaw]

Well, you would have had to if StD had seen things my way.

Guess we're stuck with Pooky's plan. At the very least, I'll take some consolation from that fact that if my paranoia is correct it will be the white side winning.

[Yaw]

And naturally, I was right. Silly StD.

[Yaw]

Oh, Pooky deserved to win by tricking StD. I'm just saying StD should have gone for the 50% chance at winning by having us both vote for opposing scum and making Pooky decide between us, instead of going with a plan which gave a 33.3% chance of winning

if

Pooky were being honest, and 0% if Pooky weren't.

[Yaw]

Also props to Yaw for having the WHOLE TOWN thinking the colors were evenly matched, when really black was winning. Classic. You would have got away with it too, if it weren't for the mod error.

It wasn't on purpose. I was just working off of your lists since I was too lazy to recreate them on my own. So the real props go to your list errors.

As for why white went gunning for town that night, we realized we were behind and on the verge of gaining a scum majority in the town. So we needed to keep the town from getting back control of the game. We were also betting that the opposing scum realized the same thing -- that they were better off gunning for town and not us, to get the scum majority. Keep in mind that at that point the town knew pretty much who all the scum were, so this was really our only option to avoid just getting picked off.