Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!

[Yosarian2]

I am here.

I'm afraid I might not be able to read the whole game before deadline, though, especially since I was just about to go to bed when Incognito caught me online and I'll be out for much of the day tomorrow. If someone can summarize what's been going on for me real quick, that would help me.

[Yosarian2]

(checks rules) And we need a real majority to lynch, huh? And the person I replaced wasn't voting. Great.

I'll try to get on tommorow morning and see if I can do something before deadline. Don't count on me, though.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. Ok.

Netropolis, Zach (I realize you might not be here): If you both could explain the cases against you and then give a defense for them, it would help me greatly.

[Yosarian2]

And we need a real majority to lynch, huh?

If a majority is not reached at deadline, the player with the most votes at the end of the Day will be lynched

Ah, my mistake. Ok, good, at least we won't be no-lynching then.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, I'm doing a quick skim-through here. I'm sure I'm missing all kinds of stuff,
but hopefully I can get somewhere before the day ends.

Page 1-2: KMD seems town to me. Random bandwagon on Bogre. Netopolis opposed random wagon, gets attacked for it by KMD
and others.

Page 3: I don't really have a problem with Netropolis's play so far. About the only thing I can say about is that if Bogre is
scum Netropolis might be scum with him.

Page 4: KMD/ Netopolis fight continues. I'm pretty confident KMD is town. Netopolis could also be town; he dosn't really
sound scummy to me, but all that theory related stuff is easy to fake as scum.

Page 6:

I'm completely naked right now...

Lol.

On a side note, I don't agree with Glork's his attacks on KMD, but I'm not going to claim to have any kind of read on Glork right now.

Page 7:

DERP DERP

That was a really funny post, Gayle. Do you think Ellibereth is scum for voting you like that, or are you just screwing
around?

KMD was flailing for a while, but he seems to have gotten back under control.

Hmm? I don't think KMD was flailing at all, I think he knew exactly what he was doing and was doing it well.
What did you mean, netro?

Page 8:

Astonishing post, Ellibereth. Your little cartoon explains everything.

Everything.

Unvote, Vote: Ellibereth

I said it last game, and I'll say it again - shape up, take the game seriously and post
original content or face the noose.

I like this post. Garfield is a scum tell.

Seriously, if I had been in the game at this point, I likely would have voted Elilibereth myself, especially after
he declared Netopalis scum for voting him.

Although Glork's defense of Ellibereth here at the end of the is interesting, and is making me doubt that a bit.

Page 9:

I'm less confident about Neto now. I dislike the whole "Let's lynch Ellibereth because if he is town
it dosn't hurt us as badly" argument. I've seen scum use that too much to justify pushing a lynch they know is bad.

Page 10: I don't think Glork's vote on Mae was random, and he's saying it's not, so I'm a bit confused why he felt
he had to go find and example where he random voted on page 10 as town. I don't mind votes without reasons, personally,
but the fact he gave that meta-defense seems a bit odd to me. Glork?

[Yosarian2]

Page 11: KMD thinks Mae is town. Glork asks Mae a bunch of questions.

Page 12: Not really happy with Gayle's contrabutions so far.

Wow...he's saying he's been contributing so little because he was spending his time writing a program to facilitate note
taking in this game? Lol, that's a new excuse I haven't heard before.

Page 16: Gayle, what was it you read after your ISO post #10 but before your ISO post #13 that made you unvote netlava here?

That'll teach me for voting before becoming caught up.

Unvote

Page 18: Why do people keep calling Net's claim a "hider" claim? Commmuter is a very different role from hider.

Page 20: Yeah, this is scummy:

Tomorrow is deadline. Netopalis has the most votes anyway, so you will get your way if you just wait. There is no reason to lynch today.

[Yosarian2]

On a side note, Neto, your reluctance to bandwagon early is probably anti-town in a speed game like this. Might not be relevent to your alignment, especally if you really do oppose "bandwagoning for the sake of bandwagoning" in all your games, but I do want to hear if you think the speed of this game changes that.

Hmm. Honestly, I don't think Neto looks that scummy, but he could very well be scum, and this whole Zach thing makes me wonder if it's a scum-driven counterwagon. The claim dosn't really say much; it's possible, but then again people are right that it's an easy claim for scum to fake.

For the moment, I'm going to

Vote: Gayle

, because he's someone I'm actually suspicous of. Let me go back and read Zach in iso.

[Yosarian2]

Meh. After doing a quick re-read, I'm not happy with the wagon on Zach, either.

Do we have enough people around to hypothetically lynch someone other then the two of them in the next hour?

[Yosarian2]

im here. but i want a neto lynch.

Ok, why?

[Yosarian2]

I'm here. Who were you thinking about lynching, Yos?

Well, I'm still working on that.

Between Zach and Neto, I'd rather lynch neto, I think, but I'd like a third option.

Let's see...people in the game:

* Yosarian2 (replaced Annachie D1) v
* Haylen v
* SaintKerrigan v
* Netopalis v
* camn v
* Netlava
* Bogre v
* Gayle
* Glork v
* Zachrulez v
* Ellibereth
* Kmd4390 v
* Maemuki v

People I defiantly do not want to lynch today:
Haylen
Saint
Glork
KMD

People I have mixed feelings on (in no special order):
Zach
Netropolis
camn
Bogre
Maemuki

People I'd be happy lynching today:
Netlava
Gayle
Ellibereth

[Yosarian2]

Actually...correction, doing a quick look at her posts, I'm going to move Mae down to the bottom catagory. I see no reason in her posts to not lynch her.

[Yosarian2]

Deadline's in 54 minutes, we're not going to be able to get one of the people you'd be happy with lynching today... (As much as I would like to)

Well, if not, then I'm going to have to vote for you.

Let's give it a shot, though.

Unvote:Gayle

Vote:Maemuki

Gogogo

[Yosarian2]

Ah, simulpost.

i wouldnty mind a netlava lynch, but its just a hunch.

Heh. Ok, I'd be fine with that also.

[Yosarian2]

Ok,

Unvote

Vote:Netlava

, I guess.

[Yosarian2]

It'd be nice it Netlava were to show up in the next 30 minutes or so and have the chance to claim if he wishes to.

[Yosarian2]

L-1 Alert.

Just so people know it's L-1.

Really? I thought that it was only 5 votes on Netlava; it's 7 to lynch, so I think we're at lynch-2, unless I miscounted..

Should be enough for a deadline lynch, though.

[Yosarian2]

Currenlty voting are:

Maemuki, Yosarian2, Netopalis, Haylen, Gayle, SaintK

Yeah, you're right, 6 votes.

[Yosarian2]

I'd actually rather lynch Mae then Netlava, but I like this wagon a lot more then either Zach or Neto.

[Yosarian2]

Lol. No, it's not that rule 19.

So, Gayle, if you want to actually contribute, how about commenting on some key stuff.

-Can you explain that wierd "let's just let it go and neto might be lynched at deadline" comment? If you're pro-town, wouldn't you want more people to be forced to commit to an opinion?

-Who is scummier, Netlava or Maemuki?

-Who is scummier, Zack or Neto?

-If you could lynch anyone in the game right now, who would it be?

[Yosarian2]

Actually, I'm a girl, too. Can't you tell by the avatar?

Yeah, but you have that little "male" symbol, so we're all going to assume you're a guy. Plus we all know girls don't play starcraft.

[Yosarian2]

Back on a serious note, I really want Gayle to answer my questions before deadline. If he dosn't, I'll be unhappy with him.

[Yosarian2]

No! Give me back my penis!

Umm...but...I don't have it anymore.

On a more serious note, do we have to get serious now? Because I always feel like gettin' drunk after a killin'.

I'm glad everyone's here, and all the gender-changing-lesbian-spanking is certainly fun, but yeah, the stuff people say in the last few minutes before a deadline in a crazy situation like this can be very significant, and I'd like to squeeze out a few more solid comments from people before we find out lava's alignment.

Maemuki: If lava flips scum, who do you think his buddies would be? If he's town, who would you suspect then?

[Yosarian2]

*extemely unfitting music plays*

Boys will be boys, will be boys, will be boys, will be boys
Will be boys, will be girls with no warning
Girls will be girls, will be guys, will be boys that don't cry over toys
That they use to beat girls they despise by the morning
They always said that sex would change you
Change you, change you, change you...
(Amanda Palmer, "Sex changes")

[Yosarian2]

...Is this a bad time to have a serious post?

-Can you explain that wierd "let's just let it go and neto might be lynched at deadline" comment? If you're pro-town, wouldn't you want more people to be forced to commit to an opinion?

I believe Netopalis would be a mislynch, so I did not want Netopalis to be lynched.

Well, then, why didn't you say that?

If you had said "I'm opposed to a Netopalis lynch because I think he's town", that would have been fine. But I'm weirded out by you trying to stall a Neto lynch on the grounds that 'it dosn't matter anyway', that seems scummier to me.

Who is scummier, Netlava or Maemuki?

Honestly, until I reread their posts to answer this, I would have said Maemuki. However, at the moment I find Netlava scummier.

Ok. Why?

Who is scummier, Zack or Neto?

Now, since I've voted Zack over Neto, I have to say Zack, haven't I?

You don't have to say anything. I'm wondering what you think. Changing your mind, especally in a speed game like this, would be fine.

[Yosarian2]

Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.

Lol. Yeah, I hope he's scum, I'm sure as hell sticking my neck way out on this one. I'm a bit worried about lynching him without getting a claim, but meh, I think he's more likely scum then Neto or Zach is.

[Yosarian2]

So, any questions for me, Yos?

Not especially. As I said, you're not on my suspect list atm.

[Yosarian2]

Well considering I wasn't a fan of your predecessor, and you basically saved Neto's ass, I know exactly where my suspicions lie.

Pssht. If I wanted to save Neto's ass, I would have voted for Zach.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'm now pretty sure Glork is town here.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'm now pretty sure Glork is town here.

And I'm pretty sure you're going to nightkill me.

Lol. Actually, I was making sure I said that because if Lava does flip scum, I'm probably about to get nightkilled here.

[Yosarian2]

I don't like Zach's subtle attack on arguably the most pro-town player in this game (Maemuki). .

How is Mae the "most pro-town player in the game", exactally?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so the lynching wagon on Netlava was ridiculously scummy. His town flip means I'd be willing to bet on at least one scum on the lynch.

*Netlava (6) <-~ Maemuki, Netopalis, Yosarian2, Haylen, SaintKerrigan, Gayle

Mae is town. Neto is town. Haylen is town. Gayle is town. That leaves Yos and Saint. I'm still leaning town on Saint.

Vote Yos

Now to read Day 2.

Terrible logic, all around.

[Yosarian2]

So why is Neto town KMD?

His claim.

His claim? Really? I actually think Neto's claim is pretty much the only valid reason I've seen to suspect him.

[Yosarian2]

The fact that most of the votes moved from me and most of the votes on Neto stayed put indicates pretty clearly that it's far more likely that the scum were on my wagon.

How does that follow?

[Yosarian2]

The fact that most of the votes moved from me and most of the votes on Neto stayed put indicates pretty clearly that it's far more likely that the scum were on my wagon.

How does that follow?

My theory, based on their desire to lynch me, and then Netlava, and the lack of interest in lynching Neto.

(shrug)

At the moment, I think there's a pretty high chance you're town; I'm thinking that either you and Neto are both town (in which case the scum would likely have just kept their head down and stayed quiet during the end of the day), or you are town and Neto is scum. If Neto is scum, then probably the people who come out looking the worst are Gayle and Mae (Gayle esepcally). If you're both town, then...I'm less sure.

[Yosarian2]

If Neto is scum, then probably the people who come out looking the worst are Gayle and Mae (Gayle esepcally).

Actually...if Neto is scum and Zach is town, then May leaving her vote on Lava all that time when she could have just moved it to Zach dosn't really make sense. Hmm. Ok, forget that.

[Yosarian2]

If Neto is scum, then probably the people who come out looking the worst are Gayle and Mae (Gayle esepcally).

Actually...if Neto is scum and Zach is town, then May leaving her vote on Lava all that time when she could have just moved it to Zach dosn't really make sense. Hmm. Ok, forget that.

Haven't I already told you that Mae is town? Why aren't you taking my word as gospel?

Meh. Mae was my top suspect yesterday, although I'm less certain she's scum now, since I'm not sure I see her making such a big deal about casting the first vote if she was scum who knew Lava was town.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, let me do a voting analysis of day 1, and see if I can come up with any 3 man scum groups that make sense. (And yeah, with 13 people in the game, moderately powerful town roles like tracker and roleblocker, and only one nightkill, I'm thinking a 3 man scum group makes the most sense for the moment.)

*Netopalis (3) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Haylen
Zachrulez (2) <-~ Bogre, Kmd4390
Ellibereth (2) <-~ Netopalis, camn
Maemuki (1) <-~ Netlava
Netlava (1) <-~ Maemuki
Haylen (1) <-~ SaintKerrigan

Vote Count #15 of Day 1

*Netopalis (3) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Haylen
Zachrulez (3) <-~ Bogre, Kmd4390, SaintKerrigan
Ellibereth (2) <-~ Netopalis, camn
Maemuki (1) <-~ Netlava
Netlava (1) <-~ Maemuki

Not voting (3) <-~ Gayle, Annachie, Glork

Vote Count #16 of Day 1

*Netopalis (4) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Haylen, Glork
Zachrulez (3) <-~ Bogre, Kmd4390, SaintKerrigan
Ellibereth (2) <-~ Netopalis, camn
Maemuki (1) <-~ Netlava
Netlava (1) <-~ Maemuki

Not voting (2) <-~ Gayle, Annachie

With 13 alive, 7 votes will do it.

Vote Count #18 of Day 1

*Netopalis (5) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Haylen, Glork, camn
Zachrulez (5) <-~ Bogre, Kmd4390, Netopalis, Gayle, SaintKerrigan
Maemuki (1) <-~ Netlava
Netlava (1) <-~ Maemuki

Not voting (1) <-~ Yosarian2

With 13 alive, 7 votes will do it.

Vote Count #19 of Day 1

Netopalis (4) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Glork, camn
Zachrulez (2) <-~ Bogre, Kmd4390
Maemuki (1) <-~ Netlava
*Netlava (6) <-~ Maemuki, Netopalis, Yosarian2, Haylen, SaintKerrigan, Gayle

With 13 alive, 7 votes will do it.

Plausible scum groups:

If Neto is scum and both of his buddies were protecting him by backing other wagons, then I think the most likely group here is Neto+Gayle+Bogre. SaintK or KMD are also logical possibilities here, but I get good vibes from both of them.

If Neto is scum and one of his buddies was bussing him, then the only person who makes sense to me as a busser to me is Elibereth (making the main possibilites here Neto+Gayle+Ellibereth) or (Neto+Boyle+Elibereth)) since Camn is dead town, I think Glork is pretty obv town here, and I think a (Neto, Zach) scumteam is very unlikely considering they were the main two wagons for a while there. Haylen dosn't really fit into either scenario, because of the way she was first pushing for him but then left to join the Lava wagon; I don't think Haylen makes any sense here as a Neto buddy at all.

If Neto is town, then some possible scum group I can think of looking at that vote counts would be (Bogre+Ellibereth+ Gayle) or (Zach+ Elibereth+ one more (possibly Mae?))

I'd be curious what 3 man scum groups other people think are plausible., based on day 1 voting patterns and such. At the moment, I'm leaning towards lynching either Neto or Elibereth, because I can't think of any plausible scumgroups that dosn't include at least one or the other of them.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, cool.

Just like I said yesterday, I think Bogre makes the most sense as a Neto scum partner, based on day 1 voting patterns. Nothing that happened on day 2 changes my mind about that either.

Vote:Bogre

[Yosarian2]

Also, i REALLY dont want to claim, so dont put me at L-1, please.

Why don't you want to claim?

That's an...interesting question, SaintK. Why do you want her to answer it?

[Yosarian2]

you wouldnt believe me anyway. lol.

(slaps forehead)

[Yosarian2]

you wouldnt believe me anyway. lol.

You wouldn't

happen

to be what you claimed at the beginning of the game, would you?

I'm starting to get a thought that Yos and Mae are scum with Neto...

So, I guess this means that rather then answer my question, you're going to just keep fishing at Haylen and attack me, huh?

I should note that SaintK is another person who in my voting analysis of day 1 made logical sense as a scum buddy of Neto. I had him classed as a lower probability, since I felt he was probably town, but now that Gayle flipped town and is no longer a possible scum buddy, I'm having to re-evaluate the possible scum groups.

[Yosarian2]

By the way, I want to hear much more from Yos today. Gayle looks like a vigging, but it's pretty easy for a Serial Killer to pose as a vig, and Yos would be my top SK suspect right now.

Neah. A SK posing as a vig, and killing people who are likely to be lynched, is a bad strategy, especially in a fast mafia game. If there was a SK, then especially after a mafia gets lynched, the right move would be to start killing people everyone thinks are confirmed town. I doubt there is a SK.

Anyway, what do you want to hear from me? I've been very active and aggressive in this game since I replaced in, I think.

SaintKarrigan could be scum with Neto. I'm more convinced about Bogre at the moment.

-Pushed the Zach counterwagon hard on day 1.

-Bogre wasn't online at all during the Lava wagon at all end of day 1, no information there

-The way he acted day 2 really convinces me that Bogre was Neto's scum partner. Look at some of these posts:

Vote: Gayle

Did absolutely nothing yesterday -except- lynch Netlava. Noncontribution > Zach.

He was unwilling to vote for a long time- I need to check his votes but he wasn't very eager to commit to anything.

His 'Is this a bad time for a serious post' irks me.

Finally, he stated that he wouldn't mind lynching Neto because he thought it was going to happen anyways, mentions that it might as well be that day, but then a day later said he thought it would be a mislynch. I imagine he -knows- its a mislynch.

Here, he attacks Gayle, while trying to plant in everyone's head the idea that "Neto is a mislynch". Really looks like an odd post, especially since this is a misrepresentation of Gayle; Gayle's main point seemed to be to deter people from speedlynching Neto on the grounds that "he would be lynched anyway", and was trying to defend Neto at this point. When I saw the Gayle post, it made me wonder if Gayle and Neto were scumbuddies, so Bogre's reaction here seems off to me, and feels like he's trying to sneak in a subtle defense of Neto.

He later admitted that he "got the wrong impression" from Gayle's posts, but kept insisting that Gayle "possibly knew that a Neto lynch was a mislynch".

And when Bogre commented on this later, I get a farther bad vibe from it:

-> Not supporting the Neto bandwagon isn't scummy in of itself- I didn't support it, if you'll notice. I didn't support the Neto wagon because I he looked more town than others. I don't know for sure if he is, but I thought other lynches were better. Which was Gayle's position, except he seems to know Neto is town instead of just preferring to lynch someone scummier. The scumminess additionally comes from unwillingness to commit- he said he thought the Neto wagon would be a mislynch, but didn't state why, and didn't vote much.

The way Bogre talks about Neto lynch here feels strange to me, like he's trying to set up a pre-emptive defense for not being on the Neto wagon.

[Yosarian2]

So, Bogre, do you have any response to my attacks on you?

[Yosarian2]

By the way, I want to hear much more from Yos today. Gayle looks like a vigging, but it's pretty easy for a Serial Killer to pose as a vig, and Yos would be my top SK suspect right now.

Neah. A SK posing as a vig, and killing people who are likely to be lynched, is a bad strategy, especially in a fast mafia game. If there was a SK, then especially after a mafia gets lynched, the right move would be to start killing people everyone thinks are confirmed town. I doubt there is a SK.

Do you think that every player in this game is experienced and meticulous enough to make "the right move" here? Just because you know it's a bad play doesn't mean that everybody does.

Eh, that's possible.

ALso, though, there is that missing kill from night 1. Considering our roleblocker was already dead at the time, it dosn't seem all that likely that a kill was blocked that night.

Anyway, what do you want to hear from me? I've been very active and aggressive in this game since I replaced in, I think.

It might just be that other people are drowning this thread with posts. But from my perspective:
A) You tried to throw me to the wolves at the very end of D1, heading into night. [/quote[

Eh, I really didn't think of it that way. I wasn't really worried that it was that likely you'd get nightkilled after attacking me at the end of the day like that; I figured scum would probably not be interested in killing you while you were "pointed" at me, unless they were going to kill me.

I already touched on this, but it shows that you had a very strong desire to not-be-killed. I think you were genuinely worried that if you were right, the scums would try to take you down, and that reads "SK" to me.

(shrug) I thought I was likely to be right, thought I was likely to get killed, and so wanted to share all my thoughts before I died. Again, I didn't really think the scum would kill you just because I said "Glork is town".

C) I didn't like Annachie very much. He read scum to me (though I'd honestly have to go back and remind myself why).

He seems like a pretty typical "cautious noob who got caught up in a fast game and dosn't really know how to deal with it" to me. Pretty much what happened to Malyss in that lynch all lurkers game I ran, if you read that one.

[Yosarian2]

Going to be away for the weekend, but should be back before deadline.

[Yosarian2]

Ooh, found this little nugget from Bogre.

Not supporting the Neto bandwagon isn't scummy in of itself- I didn't support it, if you'll notice.

(From Day 2)

And one of his reasons for voting me is for staying off the Neto wagon. Contradiction noted.

:eyebrow:

Did you miss it when I already pointed that quote out, SK?

[Yosarian2]

And then, after that little spot of distancing, SK goes and votes for Zach.

DO you really think it's likely Zach and Neto were scum together, SaintK, considering the way they were the two main bandwagons for most of day 1?

[Yosarian2]

If you'd like to explain why you'd want me dead over him, I'd like to answer.

I already did, in great detail, where I explained in post 868 why I think you're likely to be scum with Neto. You gave a very brief response; pretty much the only point you really defended yourself on was when you said

I was the original one to push the Zach wagon, when Neto wasn't under consideration, I wasn't pushing the counterwagon.

Which is reasonable enough, but completly ignores the main points I brought up against you.

That being said, right now, I think you and SK are most likely both scum together.

[Yosarian2]

Where was I distancing, and from whom?

You distanced from Bogre, making a weak attack against him and then voting for Zach.

I consider Zach a possible scum, with you as the likely remaining scum in that case (given your reluctance to lynch either one of them).

That dosn't actually answer my question, which is, why do you think it's likely Zach is scum with Bogre considering that they were the main two bandwagons for most of day 1?

(Also, nice little implied barb at the end there. I was certanly not "reluctant" to lynch Neto yesterday, and I think I made clear yesterday that I was intending to eventually vote for him; only reason I ended up not doing so was because the day ended so quickly.)

I obviously don't support my own lynch. I would vote for Bogre, but my vote would be the hammer, and I'm not ready to end the day just yet. I'm interested in seeing what other people have to say first.

What do you think about Bogre, SK?

[Yosarian2]

I think you mean why do I think it's likely that Zach is scum with Neto, right? Anyway, I'm suspicious because he didn't really try hard to come up with reasons for voting Neto until he was pressured into doing so. Just because he was voting Neto doesn't mean he's not scum. Like I said earlier, I've seen scum bus hard before.

It's not just that he was voting Neto. It's more that, in my experence, there are very rarely two major bandwagons competing against each other that are BOTH on scum; if one scum starts to get bandwagoned, scum usually push a wagon on a pro-town person to compete with it.

(Also, nice little implied barb at the end there. I was certanly not "reluctant" to lynch Neto yesterday, and I think I made clear yesterday that I was intending to eventually vote for him; only reason I ended up not doing so was because the day ended so quickly.)

Actually, your desire to have Neto lynched is

not

clear Day 2. You entered a lot of hypothetical "what-ifs" concerning the possibility that Neto is scum, true, but I didn't see anything that implied you were going to vote for him. Feel free to prove me wrong, though.

After I ran my voting analysis on day 2, this was my conclusion:

At the moment, I'm leaning towards lynching either Neto or Elibereth, because I can't think of any plausible scumgroups that dosn't include at least one or the other of them.

I don't understand how you could have read that and come away with the conclusion that I was "reluctant" to lynch for Neto.

What do you think about Bogre, SK?

Well, up until now I was thinking he was scum. However, your post (especially regarding what I feel is misrepresentation of your behavior towards Neto on Day 2) has just made me feel

very

uneasy about your alignment. And if you're scum, then your most plausible scumbuddy is Zach, which would mean Bogre is innocent (assuming a 3-man scumteam)...

Lol.

That's complete bull, SK. You've never given any sign that you "thought Bogre was scum". You made a weak attack against him, made an excuse for why you voted someone else instead, and now that I'm questioning you about it, you're trying to come up with some alternate theory to try to get someone other then Bogre lynched. You claim you "Thought he was scum", but you never once really supported a bandwagon on him, at all.

I think we've got this one in the bag. Scum team is SK and Bogre.

[Yosarian2]

It's not just that he was voting Neto. It's more that, in my experence, there are very rarely two major bandwagons competing against each other that are BOTH on scum; if one scum starts to get bandwagoned, scum usually push a wagon on a pro-town person to compete with it.

And in my experience, I've seen scum bus when a partner is viewed as scummy by a good number of the players.

That has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was just making, which was about the low probability of there being two competing scum wagons; if scum decide to bus, then that also generally means there won't be two competing scum wagons.

I don't understand how you could have read that and come away with the conclusion that I was "reluctant" to lynch for Neto.

That's not very compelling. Your given reason for wanting to lynch Neto (as well as Elli) is for voting patterns only.

Yup. Based on voting patterns, I was sure that either Neto or Elli had to be scum. And I was correct; not sure why you're trying to talk down 'voting patterns', considering how well that method of scumhunting worked. It really wasn't based on Neto's actions; I didn't think his actions were that scummy, actually, other then his claim, but based on how day 1 turned out, and based on how people were voting at different times, there just weren't that many possible scenarios where he wasn't scum.

From what you've said, you could just as easily have wanted to vote for Elli.

If you read that whole post, how many possible scenarios I had with him as scum vs. with him as town, I think it would have been clear that I was really leaning towards lynching Neto, both because of the high chance of him being scum and in order to gather information; there really weren't many possible scumgroups that didn't include Neto.

Plus, you

were

reluctant to lynch Neto and Zach on Day 1, and by Day 2 it could easily have been decided (after a nice nightchat) that it was better off to bus Neto rather than try to defend him.

[/quote]

So, first you're attacking me for not attacking Neto, now you're accusing me of bussing him?

It really looks like you're just trying to come up whatever scenerio you can that makes me look like scum. I was somewhat unhappy with lynching Neto on day 1 (although I would have been in favor of a neto lynch over a Zach lynch), but I think you were more reluctant then I was.

That's complete bull, SK. You've never given any sign that you "thought Bogre was scum". You made a weak attack against him, made an excuse for why you voted someone else instead, and now that I'm questioning you about it, you're trying to come up with some alternate theory to try to get someone other then Bogre lynched. You claim you "Thought he was scum", but you never once really supported a bandwagon on him, at all.

Hey, check this out:

I would vote for Bogre, but my vote would be the hammer, and I'm not ready to end the day just yet. I'm interested in seeing what other people have to say first.

That was the excuse you gave for not voting for Bogre, in response to me questioning you about it and accusing you of distancing; basically, I accused you of being scum with Bogre and asked you what you thought about him, and you gave an excuse for not voting for him. Then, within a page, you suddenly started arguing that me and Zach were scum, and that Bogre was innocent.

Also, I think you were defending Bogre from GLork here:

Also, how is trying to put Bogre at L-1 (which he isn't at, by the way) and forcing him to claim any different from my "rolefishing" earlier? Come to think of it, you've already got a claim out of me. Now you're trying to get a claim out of someone else? This is making me feel uneasy about you. I guess I'll have to ISO you, in addition to Bogre.

You also seem to be forgetting that I was voting for him on Day 2.

Hmmm...you're right, actually, I did forget about it.

Looking back, this was where you voted for Bogre:

Unvote: Gayle. Vote: Bogre.

Misrepresentation noted.

Hmm. I do agree with you Bogre was misrepresenting Gayle there (I assume that's what you were talking about?) It's interesting; you kept your vote on Bogre for most of day 2, but I don't see much else you said to reinforce your attack on him.

Anyway, if you thought Bogre was scum on day 2, then why did you not seem to want to follow up on that today?

[Yosarian2]

I'm not voting Bogre at the moment because:

A: My vote hammers him, and I want some discussion first.
B: You are currently making me feel uneasy, and if you're scum, I doubt Bogre is your partner.

That's fine. But I'm not talking about you VOTING Bogre.

What I find odd is that you never really seemed to be attacking or pressuring Bogre for most of today, even though you claim he was your number #1 suspect. Like, I'm not voting for you right now, but I'm certanly attacking you.

I never got the vibe from any of your day 3 posts that you were attacking Bogre, or threatening him, or pressuring him, except for that one weak attack that you quickly followed by voting someone else. I'm just having trouble matching up your claimed suspicion of Bogre with your actions or posts so far today.

That has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was just making, which was about the low probability of there being two competing scum wagons; if scum decide to bus, then that also generally means there won't be two competing scum wagons.

(sigh)

My

point was that we're arguing different points of view on what scum will and won't do. I feel that arguing as such is fruitless.

(shrug) You were the one asking me to explain my thoughts about Zach, so I'm trying to.

Yup. Based on voting patterns, I was sure that either Neto or Elli had to be scum. And I was correct; not sure why you're trying to talk down 'voting patterns', considering how well that method of scumhunting worked. It really wasn't based on Neto's actions; I didn't think his actions were that scummy, actually, other then his claim, but based on how day 1 turned out, and based on how people were voting at different times, there just weren't that many possible scenarios where he wasn't scum.

If you read that whole post, how many possible scenarios I had with him as scum vs. with him as town, I think it would have been clear that I was really leaning towards lynching Neto, both because of the high chance of him being scum and in order to gather information; there really weren't many possible scumgroups that didn't include Neto.

So why didn't you vote for him, then? Actually, I have an idea. (See below.)

He was already at lynch -2, and we were less then 24 hours into the day at the time. I wasn't interested in rushing the day that much.

Because if you and Zach are scum (and assuming there's only a 3-man scum team), Bogre must be innocent.

But you haven't actually made a case against me yet. Or even against Zach.

Why, exactally, do you think Zach is scum?

Also, I think you were defending Bogre from GLork here:

Also, how is trying to put Bogre at L-1 (which he isn't at, by the way) and forcing him to claim any different from my "rolefishing" earlier? Come to think of it, you've already got a claim out of me. Now you're trying to get a claim out of someone else? This is making me feel uneasy about you. I guess I'll have to ISO you, in addition to Bogre.

This isn't me defending Bogre. This is me asking Glork how what he is doing isn't considered "rolefishing," which I've been accused (by him and other people) of doing. I think you're stretching a bit here.

Bandwagoning someone to a claim is not rolefishing, it's what you do when you suspect someone. Openly demanding that someone claim isn't rolefishing either.

Rolefishing is when you sublty try to find out someone role, try to trick someone into giving info that will let you figure out their role. Like, when you ask Haylen a question like "Why is it you don't want to claim?"; it sounds like you're trying to find out if she dosn't want to claim because she has a power role.

Anyway, what's going on here is that Glork attacks Bogre, and in response, you basically try to prevent Bogre from getting to lynch -1, try to prevent him from having to claim, and threaten to attack Glork for wagoning Bogre. It's hard to read that in any way other then as a defense of Bogre.

[Yosarian2]

And, the day was already over before I said that, lol.

Anyway, in case I die before tomorrow; if Bogre flips scum, lynch SaintK. If Bogre flips town; actually, I'm really having trouble coming up with any likely scum pairs if Bogre flips town, but look at people in the group of (Zach, SaintK, Mae, possibly Haylen although I think she's town), and some of those pairs obviously don't make sense, so use your judgment. I'm no longer suspicious of Eli.

[Yosarian2]

If we mislynch today, and 2 townies are killed during the night, it'll be game over.

Actually, if we mislynch today, and 1 townie is killed at night, then its game over.

We could no-lynch, that's normally what you do with 6 people left in probable lynch-or-lose but if there is a vig who still has kills left, we might be better off lynching and letting the vig shoot tonight.

Anyway, since Bogre flipped town, I think Zach becomes a reasonable suspect again...hmm. Really running out of suspects here.

[Yosarian2]

We might want to do a mass claim today. If we still have a vig with a kill, or a few other theoretically possible roles, we might want to lynch; if not, we probably no-lynch today.

[Yosarian2]

If we mislynch today, and 2 townies are killed during the night, it'll be game over.

Actually, if we mislynch today, and 1 townie is killed at night, then its game over.

We could no-lynch, that's normally what you do with 6 people left in probable lynch-or-lose but if there is a vig who still has kills left, we might be better off lynching and letting the vig shoot tonight.

Anyway, since Bogre flipped town, I think Zach becomes a reasonable suspect again...hmm. Really running out of suspects here.

What if the vig shoots wrongly again?

Basically, here are our options:

1. No-lynch, no vig kill, scum kills, we go into tommorow with 5 people alive. Lynch or lose, two lynches left, have to lynch scum both times.

2. No-lynch, vig kill, if vig kill is wrong we lose, if it's right we go into tommorow with 4 people. (worst option)

3. Lynch, no vig kill; if we lynch wrong, we lose, if we lynch right, scum kills, we go into tommorow with 4 people (bad option)

4. Lynch, vig kill; if either the lynch or the vig kill hits scum, we go into a 3 man endgame. IF both lynch and vig kill hit scum, we win. If both hit town, we lose. (This is really the best option, IF we have a vig. This way, we have 3 chances to kill the scum instead of just 2, and if one of the two hit we end up in a 3 man endgame instead of a 4 man endgame, which is also better odds.)

Basically, if we have a vig who wasn't a one-shot, our best option is to lynch today and have the vig shoot tonight. If we don't have a vig (or, theoretically, some pro-town role that can stop a kill), then our best option is to no-lynch and at least get onto odd numbers for tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

And how do we know it's a vig rather than a Serial Killer? Personally, I'm more inclined to believe 1 Mafioso + Serial Killer right now, given that I see more advantage for an SK or the Mafia to no-kill than a vig deciding to no-kill.

...why?

A SK should kill every night, generally speaking. The kill is an incredibly powerful tool; SK can either get rid of an unlynchable guy, or a pro-town power role, or a mafia. Plus, by skipping 2 kills, the SK gives us another chance to lynch him.

I don't think a vig should shoot every night, personally, but a SK generally should; the only time it's ever logical for a SK to not shoot every night is if they're pretending to be a vig, and while that's possible, it's not usually the best plan.

[Yosarian2]

Lol. I REALLY don't want a mass claim.

(shrug) If people don't want to mass claim today, I'd be willing to just say "If there is a vig who can still kill, he or she should claim today; if no one does, then we need to no lynch." That might be preferable, in fact; if there was a one-shot vig or something, then we don't want the scum to know who it is if we're going to no-lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Lol. What if the Vig is two scared to claim? Knowing that she's shot 2 power roles and 1 townie already. I don't think she wants people to think that badly of her, since the whole game rests on her shoulders tonight.

Woah...really? So the scum have only killed once this game, or else you and the scum targeted the same person twice? That's bizzare.

Just to be clear, you are claiming vig, correct?

[Yosarian2]

Just to be clear, you are claiming vig, correct?

I'm too disappointed in myself to talk about it.

Gayle was vigged, btw.

's ok, Haylen. It happens. Vig is an evil, evil role.

Ok, so unless we get a counterclaim, Haylen has to be either Vig or Sk. (I'd say 80% chance of vig). I think Eli is town.

So, if there is a two man scumteam remaining, it has to be in the group of (# SaintKerrigan
# Zachrulez
# Maemuki)

I doubt SaintK and Zach are scum together, considering how SaintK's been attacking Zach all game, so assuming there's a 2 man scum group, the scum is probably (SaintK+Mae) or (Zach+Mae). Zach+Mae is probably more likely. In any case, I think today we lynch Mae, and then Haylen shoots tonight.

[Yosarian2]

Haylen's the worst Vig in the History of the MafiaScum,

Not even close.

[Yosarian2]

I doubt SaintK and Zach are scum together, considering how SaintK's been attacking Zach all game

*coughbussingcough* Hey I've seen it happen. Whatever~ You don't have actual reasons to suspect me, now do you?

Eh, I've been suspicious of you on and off for much of the game.

Zach and SaintK could be distancing, I just don't think it's that likely; SaintK came pretty close to lynching Zach way back on day 1, and has been on his case for most of the game.

In any case, even if I'm wrong about that, so long as I'm right about Haylen being a town vig and Eli being town (and knowing my own alignment), then town should win this; we lynch one of the three of (SaintK, Zach, Mae) today, vig a second one tonight, lynch the third one tommorow, guarenteed win. If you want me to not vote you today, then convince me I'm wrong about one of those two assumptions.

[Yosarian2]

Huh.

Ok, either Zach or Haylen is lying scum.

I really don't believe Zach here. For one thing, if Haylen is a SK or whatever, then if she didn't target camn night 1, then what did she do? If she's not a vig, then why were there 2 kills on night 2? For that matter, why would a SK lie and say she targeted camn of all people? A SK trying to fake a vig claim would say "I didn't kill anyone night one", I'd think.

Besides, there was no reason why Haylen would have claimed when she did if she was lying; it dosn't really make sense.

Finally, a scumteam with Zach in it (either Zach/Mae or Zach/SaintK) would have to do a gambit like this here in order to not lose.

I really think Zach is scum.

Fos:Zach

[Yosarian2]

Have you ever played a game where the scum have had a one shot vig power Yos?

Hmm.

That's possible, I suppose; rare, but I've seen it. That's be pretty harsh in a game with a supersaint, though; town lynches the supersaint, scum can get 3 kills in a row.

I can't see scum with an extra kill using it to kill Gayle of all people, in any case; he was obviously going to get lynched if he didn't get vigged first.

[Yosarian2]

I think I'm going to wait and make sure everyone gets the chance to respond (just in case someone else is going to conterclaim vig, hah), and if no one does, or gives me a REALLY good reason why I shouldn't, I'm going to vote Zach.

[Yosarian2]

Have you ever played a game where the scum have had a one shot vig power Yos?

Hmm.

That's possible, I suppose; rare, but I've seen it. That's be pretty harsh in a game with a supersaint, though; town lynches the supersaint, scum can get 3 kills in a row.

Harsher than a vig that can kill multiple times?

Um..how is a standard vig "harsh", exactally?

I can't see scum with an extra kill using it to kill Gayle of all people, in any case; he was obviously going to get lynched if he didn't get vigged first.

That's nk speculation. I can think of at least a few reasons for scum to kill Gayle, but it's all WIFOM.

Name one.

[Yosarian2]

I would like to kill Zach tonight. If you let me do this, it will should that I am not scum, and Im certainly not part of his scumteam.

Neah, we're lynching Zach today. It's safer that way, since he's 100% confirmed scum; there's always the chance your kill will fail, if there's a godfather or something, so we have to lynch the confirmed scum today.

Tonight, kill Mae.

It's quite obvious Mae is Zach's scum partner. She came out of the gate today pushing for a SK lynch. And if you notice, Zach counterclaimed you IN ORDER TO TRY AND SAVE MAE, since we were about to lynch her.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, there's a much easier way to do this.

Unvote: Zachrulez. Vote: No-Lynch.

Today everyone votes no-lynch. If Haylen is the vig, then scum would be crazy not to kill her tonight. Vig-Haylen should target Zach. If she's the vig, she kills Zach-scum. If she's scum, then killing Zach will reveal he's telling the truth, and we can lynch her tomorrow. If she's scum and doesn't kill Zach, we lynch her anyways. It's the safest possible solution.

No, we're lynching Zach today.

Any other plan loses if, say, Zach happens to be a bulletproof godfather or something.

[Yosarian2]

I would support an SK night kill, since i had originally put his name down in my action PM anyway.

Haylen: It's Mae. SK is not likely to be scum with Zach at all, look at how hard SK's been trying to lynch Zach all game.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway,

Vote:Zach

[Yosarian2]

Why do you think there's a chance that someone will counter Haylen's vig claim?

Oh, I don't think it's likely at all, but it was logical to wait; I was assuming Haylen was confirmed town, so long as she wasn't counterclaimed on the kill.

Why do you also seem to presume that no one will counter me?

(shrug) Irrelevent. You're scum even if no one counterclaims you. Only thing that could have gotten me to not lynch you would have been if Eli counterclaimed Haylen.

[Yosarian2]

Yup, we got them.

I set forth a plan where town couldn't possibly lose unless I was wrong about Eli or Haylen, involving lynching Mae, then vigging Zach and, if that didn't do it, lynching SK tommorow. Zach responded by fake counter-claiming. Zach and Mae are the scum.

[Yosarian2]

Hayle:

Neto, Kerri, Bogre

Neto, Kerri, Zach

Neto, Bogre, Zach

Neto, Zach, Yos

I stand by the above. Whatever Yos is saying I don't feel Maescum.

Meh. Zach wouldn't have counterclaimed there if I was scum with him; he would have sit back and let us lynch Mae. The counterclaim was clearly a desperation gambit because he was about to lose.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, at what point today where we going to lynch Mae?

SaintK, look at when he counterclamed. He did so RIGHT AFTER I said this:

Ok, so unless we get a counterclaim, Haylen has to be either Vig or Sk. (I'd say 80% chance of vig). I think Eli is town.

So, if there is a two man scumteam remaining, it has to be in the group of (# SaintKerrigan
# Zachrulez
# Maemuki)

I doubt SaintK and Zach are scum together, considering how SaintK's been attacking Zach all game, so assuming there's a 2 man scum group, the scum is probably (SaintK+Mae) or (Zach+Mae). Zach+Mae is probably more likely. In any case, I think today we lynch Mae, and then Haylen shoots tonight.

I had solved the game, and he knew it. The counterclaim, trying to get Haylen lynched instead, was the only chance he had left.

[Yosarian2]

[Yosarian2]

Uhh...my apologies to camn, Gayle, Glork and Yos...wait til you hear the logic behind your kill, Yos *facepalm*

Yeah, I really can't believe you vigged me, Haylen. That didn't make any sense at all; everyone knew I was town during the day there, even you; that was pretty much the least logical thing you could possibly have done. Of course, everyone also knew Glork was town.

Of course, Mae was town too, but if you had vigged Mae I think there's a decent chance me and Saint would have figured it out in endgame.

Just goes to show you, vigs are evil.

Anyway, good game, everyone. Very well played, Eli; I really thought Eli was scum earlier in the game; he did a really good job of looking pro-town later on, though, and he had me fooled.

[Yosarian2]

I thought I would find scum through going back to the first kill. I did and asked myself the question: Who has played with camn enough to know she's a good scumhunter and a pretty decent townie after day one? Who wanted want her living to other day?

That's pretty bad logic. If I was scum, pretty sure I would have killed Glork. Besides, I think it's pretty well known that Camn is a good player.

Then we have your vote.

You took your vote off Neto when you replaced in. He and Zach were drawing for votes. You then said if you wanted to save Neto, you would've just voted for Zach. I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't have wanted their buddy lynched that early in the game. So i thought you were scum with them both.

Argue with that!

So, you ignored the entire fact that I was first trying to get you to vig Zach, and then instead I got Zach lynched even when you were hesitating about it, just because I was wrong on day 1 about 5 minutes after I replaced into the game?

The really screwed up thing is, I was actually right fairly early in the game; I thought there was a high chance Eli was scum with Neto who had bussed him. Not sure why I dropped that.

[Yosarian2]

The loss is entirely your fault.

Fixed.

It's not your fault, Haylen. Eli primarally won because he played really well and fooled everyone, even though both of his scum partners were fingered as scum from day 1 by a bunch of townies.

Sorry if I came off harsh. I'm just getting really, really tired of getting vigged when I'm town, it seems to happen to me all the time.

[Yosarian2]

I think you actually worked pretty well as an honorary scum buddy Yos

Lol. Yeah, my day 1 play was quite a spectacular success at shooting myself in the foot. I managed to take a pretty much guarenteed scum lynch and at the last second rally the troops, get everyone to follow me, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, haha.

[Yosarian2]

Would now be a good time to tell everyone rather than sending in 4 kill PM's, I actually sent in 8. Each night I changed my mind to an entirely different person. Each night featured the same person in the first PM. Anyone hazard a guess?
I'm glad Incog turned off his email notifications...

Me, right?

'Cause I'm SK, encroachin' on yo turf!

Uhh...no...way more embarrassing than that.

I was going to say me, but that dosn't quite work.

Yourself?

[Yosarian2]

From Day effing One.

Stuff It. Haylen has some new rules of theory.

1. Logic is scummy.
2. Logic cannot be used to help the town.
3. If you want to kill someone cause their posts are in the 'wrong' format, do it. They'll turn up scum.
4. Showing Emotion Aint Scummy.

Actually, logic was how I figured out that both Nato and Zach were scum. My gut told me both wagons were wrong; my gut was wrong, my logic was right.

I agree with you on number 4.

[Yosarian2]

I think you actually worked pretty well as an honorary scum buddy Yos

Lol. Yeah, my day 1 play was quite a spectacular success at shooting myself in the foot. I managed to take a pretty much guarenteed scum lynch and at the last second rally the troops, get everyone to follow me, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, haha.

I'm still pissed that you pushed through that lynch, especially after I pointed out that we had moved from obvscumlynch to obvtownlynch.

Well, you could have, like, tried to convince me that I was wrong, instead of just swearing revenge against everyone on the wagon. There were enough people on that there was still time to swing the wagon back the other way after you got online, and I would have listened to rational arguments.

(shrug) I might have done better if I'd had more time. I donno. I was trying to get the best read I could based on a very rushed read-through of the game just before deadline.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to rely entirely on logic or gut and expect to win. Logically, I think Mae was probably the "scummier" lynch in endgame, but if anybody had bothered to go back and look at the end of D1 (and my observations of her on D2), she should have been VERY OBVSIOULY PROTOWN.

I thought so at the time, but there were also things she did that looked scummy, and the end of day 1 thing "I was the first on the wagon!!" thing wouldn't have been that hard for a scum to fake; I've done it.

...except that I have no idea who the fuck camn is (no offense, camn), and I certainly would have killed someone else (probably Mae or somesuch). I perfectly understand the reasoning behind Haylen's vig, and there were valid reasons to believe that you

could

have been scum -- especially after Neto/Zach was known. She just happened to get it wrong.

Eh, I understand people could have been suspicious of me after Zach flipped scum. I would have thought the way the last day went would have pretty convincingly cleared me, though.

A claimed vig, if they're going to fire at all, should generally be the town's second lynch, and not go off wily-nilly and kill some random person that no one was suspicious of during the day. Her Gayle kill actually was very helpful to the town, for that reason; even though he was town, he certanly would have been lynched if she hadn't shot him. Shooting me, you, or Camn, when no one suspected any of us, was not.

[Yosarian2]

I thought so at the time, but there were also things she did that looked scummy, and the end of day 1 thing "I was the first on the wagon!!" thing wouldn't have been that hard for a scum to fake; I've done it.

I've done it, too, but that doesn't mean that everybody thinks like you do. It's just like when you said "SK acting like vig is bad play." You and I recognize these things, but a large number of players don't.

Well, sure, but at the time I was mostly trying to convince you that I personally wasn't the SK, and therefore that I wouldn't have done that as SK. Because I wouldn't have made that play, and you know I wouldn't have made that play, and I know you know I wouldn't have made that play. I couldn't quite just come out and say THAT, though, even though it's true, or I'd be accused of OMGUSing, so I made it a general argument instead. I think you got the gist of it though.

You have to ask yourself, "Does it make sense for

Mae

as scum to fake championing a mislynch wagon?" No, it didn't. That's why she was protown.

(shrug) Yeah, I agreed with that argument, and it gave her some pro-town points in my book. I just don't think it's a 100% reliable town tell, from anyone.