Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[Shanba]

/confirm

hi everyone

[Shanba]

Vote Izzy

Fun bandwagon is fun. Though it's no fun if you guys keep unvoting all the fricking time.

Shea needs to develop some threats with teeth.

[Shanba]

There's no reason to assume my threats don't have teeth, just because I choose to bite at a later date.

I was more referring to the fact that I don't think there are ten players on the site, let alone in the game, who would help you lynch korts if he didn't claim. Hence, empty threat.

[Shanba]

3) I like it. Will participate if it gets heated. Otherwise, I don't see a need for a page 3-5 probable mislynch. My vote means it's 1 vote away from an accidental/scumhammer. Don't want that.

I count six votes. That's, with 20 players, 5 away from a lynch, not 2.

Korts: do you think voting with dice is scummy, or just anti-town?

[Shanba]

My official position is I will not post until I see something I'm interested in saying.

So what prompted this post then?

What's your thoughts on the izzy wagon?

What do you make of TSQ and Korts?

mipe, was the (failed) vote for Anon serious or not? If it was serious, what makes you think it was a good choice? Please quote sections of his posts.

[Shanba]

VasudeVa, there's a point I'm having difficulty understanding in your response to korts/scotmany.

You seem to be opposed to scumhunting on day one (correct me if I'm wrong) yet you also seem to be doing scumhunting on day one in that you believe korts and scot are scum.

As a sidenote, if you have nothing on izzy and something on scot/korts, why are you keeping your vote on izzy?

You haven't understood our izzy wagon btw. No one wants to see her claim (except possibly tsq).

Unvote Vote: dahill

. I'm smelling strong 'othersitemeta' on VasVa and I need more time to properly evaluate his actions. (If you are from another site, ould you link to some games you've played there?). dahill, on the other hand, calls an action to our attention, then after it gets shot down as notscummy, tries to claim that was what he believed all along? I'm not buying it.

mipe:

mipe, was the (failed) vote for Anon serious or not?

Shanba should know me well enough that if any of my actions make you think "is he serious?" the answer is "no"!

Mipe, why did you vote me in 87?

1. It was semi-random vote.

2. I thought you were bit scummish.

What exactly about Anon did you find scummish?

Something about the fact that his first post was just a vote and didn't say anything else, well, I got a bad feeling about that <_<

+ something about how stupid it is to only have 1 wagon and one should have multiple wagons.

Why is it that when I ask you a question, I get voted and fobbed off, but when anon and scotmany ask you the same question, you give them an explanation? Also, how is semi-random the same as "serious? no!" since you were clearly at least partially serious.

[Shanba]

Vas -

yes, it is a "pro" move to suddenly turn and vote for someone without explaining why. Glork wrote a post in md somewhere about this, I'll dig it out for you if you like. But if you look at Korts' post, that's not what he's done. He explained why he was voting for you in pretty clear terms (I'll let him explain if you really can't get it, but it's not like he was cryptic or anything...)

Secondly, you appear to be under the misconception that you can just wait for stuff to happen and it will suddenly appear. No, you have to do stuff and that makes stuff happen. You jump on the little tells early on in the hope that they lead to something bigger, and at the very least a semi-serious wagon forces someone to make a stance.

Thirdly, it's not in the town's best interest to have people claiming willy-nilly. If someone claims townie, we are none the wiser - they could be a townie, or they could be a scum fakeclaiming townie. Except for the scum, if that person is not scum, they now know that that person is not a power role. So they can avoid nightkilling them to hunt for other power roles more effectively. Similarly, if someone claims cop or some other power role, tey could be doing that as the power role in question or as scum, and with nothing else to go on, we don't have any way of telling between them. But scum can tell because scum know who the scum are, and hence if that person really is a cop they then just get nightkilled. So we gain nothing and stand to lose rather a lot. Town tend to lose mountainous games.

Vas, we can't just go around randomly wagonning people until they claim and then move on from there. That's not how this game works. Surely there are other things you can find to comment on / scumhunt.

@GHP: do you think my post 95 (the one everyone's referring to) is a scum slip? if so, why?

Also, what people seem to be misunderstanding is that

I never thought GHP was scummy in the first place

. Furthermore, my "Did anyone else see this?" was not meant as a "Look here everybody! Someone scummy". When someone says a statement like "I don't scumhunt Day 1" that automatically sticks out in my mind, and no one had seemed to have noticed it so I asked that question.

No, what you are misunderstanding is that the people voting for you

don't believe

, or

are not totally comfortable with

this explanation of events. What it looks like is that you originally were going to push it, then after it was shot down, you turn and justify it retroactively.

You're being accused of retconning your motivations.

[Shanba]

New not othersitemeta equally explains the badtheory vibes I was getting from VaVa. Reading other games is an excellent way to hone your mafia instincts, imo, but it's not so good for learning basic theory, as most of the time that is simply assumed. Like the others said, MD is better for that.

dahill's jump on the VaVa wagon is silly and scummy. What's more, he hasn't responded to either scot's clarification of the case against him or mine.

[Shanba]

Eh, TSQ's logic is not why i think dahill's action was scummy. For me, it's more like this:

dahill's explanation:

Who said I thought GHP was scummy for it? I'm asking him why he thinks that because it's anti-town.

For a start, he wasn't addressing GHP. He addressed the town. Secondly, his motivation here is supposedly that he wants GHP to understand that this action is anti-town - if that were the case, why wouldn't he just explain to him in the first place rather than making a big song and dance about it?

It would make much more sense if he had thought that GHP was scummy - then he's bringing the issue to the town's attention. But he claimed that wasn't what he was doing.

So I'm left with either the explanation dahill gave, which doesn't seem to fit with his actions, or that he is lying about his motivations.

It's not great, and it's possible I'm misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. Plus, I already mentioned I don't like his move onto the VaVa wagon.

On the VaVa wagon - it got started because of shitty theory stuff. For me, that's pretty much a nulltell when coming from a newbie. I don't really like his reaction to the pressure he got from korts and scot, it seems somewhat over the top, but I have difficulty reading new players so I'm not confident in saying that that makes him scummy. dahill's jump, though, comes at a convenient time for him (when he's just beginning to come under some pressure and it would be nice for the conversation to move on to other topics) and seems to be based mostly on the shitty theory rather than the possible legitimate other reasons: see dahill post no 14 and a misinterpretation of vava's words in post 15. (I would note that VaVa's action in moving over to the dahill wagon is consistent with the theory he expressed whilst pushing the Izzy wagon.)

In particular, his unvote then revote on dahill looks fairly town to me - he originally is voting dahill because he still likes the claims idea, then he gets bashed around a bit on that theory and unvotes, then he votes dahill for a different reason (i.e. the case he originally dismissed before tsq spelt it out for him.)

[Shanba]

Eh, TSQ's logic is not why i think dahill's action was scummy. For me, it's more like this:

dahill's explanation:

Who said I thought GHP was scummy for it? I'm asking him why he thinks that because it's anti-town.

For a start, he wasn't addressing GHP. He addressed the town. Secondly, his motivation here is supposedly that he wants GHP to understand that this action is anti-town - if that were the case, why wouldn't he just explain to him in the first place rather than making a big song and dance about it?

It would make much more sense if he had thought that GHP was scummy - then he's bringing the issue to the town's attention. But he claimed that wasn't what he was doing.

So I'm left with either the explanation dahill gave, which doesn't seem to fit with his actions, or that he is lying about his motivations.

It's not great, and it's possible I'm misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. Plus, I already mentioned I don't like his move onto the VaVa wagon.

It's not this black-and-white, Shanba. It's not easily summed up as one or the other.

Well, the way I see it, the only possible options are as follows:

dahill is telling the truth about his motivations, and is town.
dahill is lying/misguided about his motivations, and is town.
dahill is telling the truth about his motivations, and is scum.
dahill is lying/misguided about his motivations, and is scum.

(a and b, a and not b, not a and b, not a and not b)

The first one I've already said why it looks unlikely to me. The second one - well, how is that possible? Is that what TSQ was referring to when he said dahill was a careless player? So careless he wasn't sure why he was doing something? Third seems the least likely of the bunch but the fourth fits the facts.

I need to reread to draw up a proper response to scot, so that will probably happen some other time.

[Shanba]

Shea, weren't you calling for the dahill wagon to be slowed up?

I'm up for a mipe wagon, though. His explanations of his vote on me are still bizarre and inconsistent, and shea's point is a good one.

[Shanba]

You know what? Let's get this wagon up and running.

Unvote Vote: mipe

[Shanba]

TSQ should move over, too.

[Shanba]

can we get a prod on theo?

on mipe:

Ive already highlighted his exchange with me, but I'm not sure people are taking it as seriously as I would like. I ask him why he's voting Anon (with the sub-question of "is it a random vote"), he responds that yes, it is a random vote and votes me for daring to ask him, and yet later when he's asked about it by scotmany and Anon implies that it wasn't totally a random vote and he did think Anon was scummy. When I questioned him about it he gave a total non-answer:

1. At that time, I thought you would be better choice to vote.

2. Your name starts with 'Shan' and ends with 'ba'.

I'm not sure why i didn't follow this up at the time; I certainly meant to. But better late than never.

Furthermore, his only other action in this game so far has been an incredibly lame wagonvote onto dahill:

For now, it seems like dahill was trying to manipulate the town votes without being noticed, but failed at that.

Unvote, Vote: dahill1

basically repeating what shea and others were saying and adding an icky as fuck disclaimer (I hate when people say shit like "for now". It's basically them giving themselves an easy out if they need to get off the wagon. I mean, if you're a townie, what does adding stuff like "for now" add? It's an abdication of responsibility. Yeah, it's possible it's just a verbal tic or whatever but I do think scum do it more than town.)

I'm not sure what to make of his little jab at quagmire. "Why aren't you looking at me?" is an unusual scum tactic to say the least (and you can accuse me of drinking the wine, but I'm not sure that it's that simple in these cases.) That's basically the only thing that gives me pause.

The dahill wagon is totally passé.

[Shanba]

With all that said, I still don't like Vasuveda, but not for the reasons Korts has tried to push. I'll reread him in iso and see what I can find.

I'm very interested in this, because the case you've debunked on VaVa is pretty much the case that we've been saying is bunkum for several pages (and against which the defence VaVa is new is fairly legit.)

I'm not convinced by your case on Korts, though. His thought process as regards VaVa (the second attack, not the first) pretty much mirrored my own; I saw VaVa's vote on izzy and thought "there's an opportunistic vote" before sitting back and thinking, well actually... why is Va voting for izzy? Maybe it would be better to find out before leaping all over it, and then Va came out with his bullshit theoretical justification which made perfect sense if he, for whatever reason, was really bad at mafia theory. And then Korts backs off with similar reasoning. So calling Korts' vote there transparent and lazy seems to me like a lack of perspective. For the other two I'm reserving judgement - I'm not as opposed to pressuring lurkers as you, quag.

in fact, my pet hate is getting to, say, day 3 and realising that all the guys who were active and expressing views and who I hence had reads on are now all dead and I'm left with a bunch of unknowns - that's when having a yos or whatever in the game really helps, since his playstyle of KILL ALL LURKERS does tend to get more people involved in the game. I basicaly have no notes on ksun, SL, FFFF, IHSIB or theo, and few on the two guys who replaced in. That's a quarter of the game. It's fine on day 1, but by, say, day 3 we could have a situation where more than half the players are virtual unknowns.

mipe - what do you make of the dahill wagon and the objections to it noted by quag and others? If you weren't voting dahill, who would you be voting?

[Shanba]

On the VaVa wagon - it got started because of shitty theory stuff. For me, that's pretty much a nulltell when coming from a newbie

and he's voting Vasuveda due to an error in his theory.

I'm not sure what you're whatting about.

[Shanba]

I'm not convinced by your case on Korts, though. His thought process as regards VaVa (the second attack, not the first) pretty much mirrored my own; I saw VaVa's vote on izzy and thought "there's an opportunistic vote" before sitting back and thinking, well actually... why is Va voting for izzy?

Umm this is one of the reasons why I'm voting Korts. Reread my post and try again.

Is this what you mean by "reacting to posts"?

See cause I was thinking that stuff like the unvote on VaVa later on when he says Va is probably just a newbie comes from the fact that he is actively thinking about the game and who is scum. In general, I don't see backpedaling as scummy.

I'm very interested in this, because the case you've debunked on VaVa is pretty much the case that we've been saying is bunkum for several pages (and against which the defence VaVa is new is fairly legit.)

what

The Korts case, that is, the one what got all the people interested in VaVa in the first place (well, Korts and scot) is the one that I, at least, have been saying doesn't really work. And the fact that he is making mistakes in theory is not so much of a problem because he is new; I would be far warier, say, if TSQ started spouting a load of bullshit theory.

mipe made himself into a supremely easy target with a couple of his most recent posts. In fact, from VaVa's vote onwards (and inclusive) the whole wagon has smelt of maggots.

Unvote

.

This is Ksun's third wagon; he's managed to get involved with both izzy and dahill before coming on to mipe. He's definitely not scumhunting. VaVa has done with more words what ksun is doing with few; he's also managed to be on all the wagons.

Korts: have you given up on pressuring FeFiFoFum?

TSQ: I want your thoughts on mipe and the mipewagon.

I'm currently unsure who to vote. Re-examining a few assumptions I had. ATM I'm thinking ksun, though.

[Shanba]

Actually, there's no reason not to vote.

Vote ksun

[Shanba]

mipe - are you really struggling this badly to play mafia in a forum environment? Could you at least put the effort in to tell us who you think is scummiest?

[Shanba]

Do you guys know what the objective of a wagon is?

Lynch or get a claim. Unless the player that is being wagoned does something remarkably protown or someone else does something remarkably scummy.

Neither of these situations have happened. And I see no mipe claim. And while Id love to see him replaced or at least try to do something, these possibilities are more remote than me getting sex in a church.

So, claim plz so we stop wasting time, can decide weather to lynch you or to move on.

Do you guys know what the objective of a claim is?

There are generally three options. It's part of a massclaim, to reveal information (like a cop investigation) or when it's the only option left before a lynch.

So, unless there are enough people willing to lynch mipe who aren't currently on the wagon to drive the wagon to a lynch should he not claim yet, there's no need for him to claim. As far as I can tell, there is no one who is not yet on the wagon yet still wants him dead. So you're three players short of forcing a claim.

Incidentally, you're wrong about the purpose of wagons.

[Shanba]

That makes sense actually. Although Korts' posts don't really register to me as lettuce posting. It looks more like typical D1 posting. Wagoning where ever and following arguments and stuff. Might read him in ISO.

Although, I really doubt that anything will come off this. Korts will have to wait till D2. Deadline is close enough for us to hammer. Any switch in wagons now will take too long for town to switch. Especially with this inactivity we have.

Never really thought large games would be this inactive. But w/e.

We're inactive because we're missing a number of players. I'm sure the mod will get on it *hint hint*.

(I'm serious here. If you're not on top of th lurker situation in large games as a mod, it quickly gets out of hand.)

I desperately want more input from shea, who (although he has a v/la excuse) was active at the dull end of the game and inactive now we're at the business end.

If we can't muster more activity, mipe will probably be lynched by default. I'm not entirely comfortable with that. I'd like to know that everyone who is on the lynch is accountable for the lynch. What's more, I think we can probably do a wee bit better than a mipe lynch. He might be scum, I'm wavering on it a bit, but some of the wagonny votes on to him have been terribad. Like ksun's.

~I am sorry and take the blame for inactivity. I am still searching for replacements, need four at the moment.~

[Shanba]

argghgh so many people i want to lynch

ksun how about you make a case for once and list your suspects instead of just going with the flow? you seem like you're just playing off of others' comments/arguments and not doing anything original.

help me lynch him?

[Shanba]

Information instead of Analysys. FOS.

What do you make of this, Paltry?

What do I make of his claim? I'd say vanilla townie is the easiest claim for scum, especially this early on. His claim did nothing to convince me and his lack of effort afterwards convinces me to keep my vote where it is.

The fact that no one seemed to notice he claimed? I don't know what that means really. It just struck me as odd really.

If we can't muster more activity, mipe will probably be lynched by default. I'm not entirely comfortable with that. I'd like to know that everyone who is on the lynch is accountable for the lynch. What's more, I think we can probably do a wee bit better than a mipe lynch. He might be scum, I'm wavering on it a bit, but some of the wagonny votes on to him have been terribad. Like ksun's.

Are you uncomfortable with mipe's lynch or the fact he might be deadline lynched?

I'm uncomfortable with the fact that a lack of activity almost makes him a lynch by default. I'd say we could get another lynch if we were a more active town, but as it stands we're almost locked in to a mipe lynch because there's no way enough people will be active in time to lynch anyone else. He becomes a lynch by default, rather than a lynch because of a majority of the town thinking he is the scummiest player, or even necessarily thinking he is scummy.

I would rather have him be lynched by majority vote, hence forcing more people to take a position on the wagon and ensuring that if he is a townie who scum would like to be lynched, the scum are forced to use up a certain amount of capital to push it past the endpoint. As it stands there are a number of people who haven't really comitted to

any

opinion of the mipewagon; and what's more, with no viable alternative, there's less opportunity in later days for significant votecount analysis. In terms of information, a default lynch because too many people are locked into a mipevote and no one else is in lynching threshold is about the worst possible situation.

Drawing it out by asking for a deadline extension is not ideal either, but it's probably the lesser of two evils.

Mod: can we have a deadline extension?

(It does say in your ruleset that you will extend the deadlne.)

[Shanba]

Hey mod: we appreciate it's hard to get replacements. no worries there. But prods would be nice on the players who are supposedly active (cough TSQ cough) but not actually posting.

[Shanba]

I don't think Paltry or ihim are really very good wagons right now.

[Shanba]

I'm fail, sorry. This school term sucks. If I can't get a read and a real post up by tonight I am going to request replacement.

You lure us in with promises of playing with you, then you pull out at the last minute?

Man, shea, you're such a cocktease.

[Shanba]

Elaborate?

inHim is giving me townvibes and paltry doesn't strike me as all that scummy.

[Shanba]

Vote:RichardGHB

I'd really like to lynch either RichardGHB or FeFiFoFum

ALso wouldn't mind lynching ksun

There's probably some other scummy lurkers, but I'm too tired to figure out who they are right now.

There's plenty of accusations you could level at RichardGHP, but I don't think lurking is one that you could make in good faith. He has 35 posts, which is about what you'd expect from 1 of 20 players in a 25 page game. I'm guessing from reading your posts that this isn't the sum of your case on Ricky, but it is possible to parse it that way.

Fonz: you say I should have been pushing the next most viable wagon; which wagon might that be? mipe was the only badwagon of any size at that point; the dahill wagon had exaporated and no one else had more than one vote. I don't think it was unreasonable of me to start another wagon. Since it's now up to four in fairly short order, I'm not sure I needed to do more to push the wagon. I'm slightly aggrieved to be accused of information instead of analysis: can you point to specific instances of that in this game?

(Also, there's no threat of a no lynch. I thought that that might be the case earlier, but rereading the deadline rules it's plurality lynches at deadline.)

If Shea really is gone, then I'm absolutely furious about that. There were a number of things I wanted him to comment on and him in particular to comment on. Now I won't get that opportunity? Grrr.

@Anon: I don't feel the need to justify in depth my opposition to wagons that never happened, and reserve the right to make vague statements about players who I am not voting for a number of reasons.

[Shanba]

Ok, this is a big important post.

Firstly, I confess I've been hiding some of my motivations this game. That's because the guy I want to lynch I don't have any evidence on beyond circumstancial and associative tells, and a paranoia in the back of my mind that I can't ignore.

Shea danced around mipe virtually all day. Early game, he was voting based on pretty much anything; a weak vote on Korts, then a bit of pressure on IHSIB. mipe is the first guy he accuses without voting. To be fair, it looks like dahill is by a long way his preferred wagon, but quite frankly the dahill case, whilst a solid one, is weak in strength. So when he states in ISO 57 that mipe is giving him a "HUGE ping on the scumdar" and also that "His stated reason for voting is like completely 100% incompatible with reality" it surprised me that he was not pushing the mipe thing harder.

So I push for more info. I get my vote on mipe and bluntly tell Shea to vote him, but rather than addressing either the case I made or the one PaltryExcuse was pushing, he just gets shitty that I told him where to vote. Seriously, I simply can't understand what his problem with that is when not two posts before he was pressuring mipe? It's like he doesn't want to vote mipe but isn't comfortable saying so outright.

Which is why I'm so amazingly annoyed that he's gone and likely is not coming back; with the dahill wagon disintegrated and the mipe wagon in full steam, what would he have made of it? Now I'll never know!

There was other stuff that fed my paranoia: for example, this is his stated case on dahill

The case lies in the motivations he had for doing it. My argument is basically this:

1) He pointed something out to the town
2) The only reason to point something out to the town is that you find it scummy.
3) Since the action was not scummy, it stands to reason that he was attempting to get a misslynch from it, IE get other players to jump on the noob.
4) The fact that he later disavowed himself from this position lends credence to the previous argument.
5) This is as good of something to go off of on day 1 as I've seen in a long while.

To which I responded

For a start, he wasn't addressing GHP. He addressed the town. Secondly, his motivation here is supposedly that he wants GHP to understand that this action is anti-town - if that were the case, why wouldn't he just explain to him in the first place rather than making a big song and dance about it?

It would make much more sense if he had thought that GHP was scummy - then he's bringing the issue to the town's attention. But he claimed that wasn't what he was doing.

So I'm left with either the explanation dahill gave, which doesn't seem to fit with his actions, or that he is lying about his motivations.

It's not great, and it's possible I'm misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. Plus, I already mentioned I don't like his move onto the VaVa wagon.

These are blatantly not the same, yet Shea later writes:

Pretty sure that Shanba just explained my position on Dahill better than I (aka the kid who has not slept in 50 or so hours and has completed 3 term papers in as many days) ever could have.

I don't care how tired you are; these two cases are fundamentally different. So why is he claiming that my case is the reason he voted?

So why am I not voting him, or at least mipe? Well, because of this:

mipe - PaltryExcuse,

Anon

,

VasudeVad

, Korts,

ksun482

, sorasagoof,

RichardGHP

,

inHimshallibe

(L-3)
dahill1-

Anon

,

Ksun482

, Thestatusquo, Mipe,

RichardGHP

,

VasudeVa

,

inHimshallibe

(L-4)

That wasn't what initially drove me off; in fact, I only noticed it now, but I did know that there was a certain amount of familiarity in the players I realised I was voting with and they weren't the players I thought were town; but what weighed more on my mind at the time was that the wagon grew suddenly and quickly. Anon votes (at the time the third on the wagon; I was the second) in post 316, VaVa in post 325, korts in 330, ksun in 335, soras in 336, dahill in 337, rickyghp in 350. In the space of two and a half pages, he goes from two votes to two votes away from lynch! That worries me, and makes me doubt my mipe/shea read, so I did a reread at that point and noticed ksun was also on the izzy wagon. What's more:

DizzyIzzyB13- Korts,

ksun482

, Shanba,

inHimshallibe

, dahill1, FeFiFoFum,

RichardGHP

(L-4)

All the players in red were on all three major wagons we've had today, mostly with either little reasoning or full on overblown PBPA "cases" with which you can justify just about anything.

Now you wanna see something else cool?

ksun482- Shanba, dahill1, The Fonz,

inHimshallibe

, iamausername,

Anon

,

RichardGHP

, DizzyIzzyB13,

VasudeVad

(L-2)

The two non-ksun triple wagon players are now on the ksun wagon! What's more, two of the bolded double wagon players are also on the wagon. In fact, these four players are four of the five who were bolded in my initial analysis. The only one who is missing? ksun himself. That's one hell of a voting bloc. I've never seen anything like it.

Unvote Vote: RichardGHP

[Shanba]

Using wagoning as basis for your vote fails.

That's odd, I could hae sworn that was the basis of the ksun wagon.

Oh hey, it was the basis of the ksun wagon!

Huh, you're on the ksun wagon. And you haven't given any reasons for why you're on the ksun wagon.

Maybe you might want to give some reasons for your ksun vote like now, to avoid possible accusations of hypocrisy. Cause that would be a shame.

[Shanba]

I just shrug off hypocrisy accusations. I really couldn't care less about them.

What I mean is, you're voting me solely on the basis that I'm wagoning. That fails.

Actually I think you may have missed a fundamental point of my post. It's deeper than just "LOLOLOL he's wagoning", though that's a useful strawman.

It's more like this: every wagon in this game thus far has been propelled by roughly the same group of people. There is a group of people who pretty much don't care who gets lynched today. They're called the scum.

You wanna know something else? None of those guys are on your wagon. Not one. They picked, en masse, the ksun wagon instead. Why did they pick the ksun wagon instead? I'm not entirely sure, but I intend to find out. That involves lynching you.

What's more, you're not simply wagoning. If we look at your iso on the mipe and dahill wagons you have implied that that is the best wagon for today. In other words, if I take your posts at face value, every single time someone has been the most popular lynch choice, you happen to have simultaneously decided that that guy was the best lynch. Wow, talk about coincidence! Please explain: are you voting for these guys because you think they are scum, or because you think they look like the most popular lynch? Or is there a third option I am ignoring? The first is scummy because it doesn't fit with the pattern of your votes. The second is scummy because it doesn't fit your stated motivations.

You're under serious pressure (second most popular wagon) and refusing to justify your actions. That's not scummy, though. It's just retarded. You should justify your actions. THis is th epoint in time where you start being super open and honest with us all. You wanna know why?
a) you might not have another chance.
b) it might save your life.

[Shanba]

IHSIB/Ricky spat is intriguing. Need more alignment info.

[Shanba]

Hey guys!

[quote=THE RULES"]1.) Deadline: The Day phase will last 3 weeks starting from the thread unlocking. When the deadline is up, the greatest majority will end up being lynched. If there is a tie, the one with the first vote gets lynched. If requested, I will extend the deadline. [/quote]

THe only way "greatest majority" makes sense in that sentence is if he means "plurality". So there's actually no need to vote anyone just to secure a lynch: a lynch is guaranteed! You can vote your conscience!

[Shanba]

Hey guys!

1.) Deadline: The Day phase will last 3 weeks starting from the thread unlocking. When the deadline is up, the greatest majority will end up being lynched. If there is a tie, the one with the first vote gets lynched. If requested, I will extend the deadline.

THe only way "greatest majority" makes sense in that sentence is if he means "plurality". So there's actually no need to vote anyone just to secure a lynch: a lynch is guaranteed! You can vote your conscience!

Theoretically, you should still vote for your favorite lynch out of the top candidates... for example, it'd make little sense for me to vote scot just to prove a point at this point. Better to go for someone I'd slightly rather lynch over the other two potential options.

Eh, I guess this actually makes sense.

[Shanba]

Ok. I'll do a more detailed read-through later. At the moment, I'd really like to hear exactally why RichardGHP joined the ksun wagon in post 604. The timing looks odd to me; with the deadline coming up, Izzy and Va join the wagon, pushing it into the #1 wagon and the likely deadline lynch. At this point, now that it looks like ksun-scum is about to get lynched, Richard joins the wagon giving no reason at all, and he never explaned it for the entire rest of the day. This looks like a bussing move to me, based on the timing. It could also be a simple self-preservaton vote, which would be null, but I don't think so, considering he only joined the wagon AFTER it appeared ksun was about to be lynched, not when they were tied at 6.

Richard, could you explain why you voted ksun here?

What do you think ksun coming up scum says about Richard's alignment, Yos?

[Shanba]

He's also ignoring something he usually picks up as town- being the main counterwagon to a scum lynch always makes you at least somewhat more likely to be town.

This was what I was trying to get at with the question I just asked yos, but there are a couple of factors that are complicating the situation in my mind at the minute.

The first is the presence of the mipewagon. While it was dying, it was still a significant presence at the time of the lynch. If Rickyghp is also scum, wouldn't it have made sense for the scum to have pushed mipe as the counterwagon to the ksun wagon instead of ricky? This makes me think that Ricky is even more likely town than normal.

Secondly, there was very little late movement in the wagons. The only movement there was was me off ksun and onto Ricky and zoraster onto ksun. In a twenty player game, that's almost nothing. While bussing is possible (and even fairly likely given the way ksun played on day 1) surely there must have been some scum who were not on the wagon - and what were they doing? Looking at the players who were not on the ksun wagon - tsq is inactive and probably needs replacement, Yos2 was pushing hard, mipe didn't post that whole time and neither did paltry or FFFF. Scot dropped his previously high posting rate about a week before deadline an basically stopped posting at all. So basically, everyone who was on the counterwagons dropped off the face of the planet at the crucial point.

I think it's likely there's a significant number of scum in that group. The disparity between the wagons of the two players was not so great that a couple of switches wouldn't have saved ksun (either through consolidation of the mipe/richard wagons into one wagon or through swaps off the ksun wagon); hence it's likely that some percentage of the scum missed that opportunity. People like FeFiFoFum were always posting very little, but people like scotmany and paltry excuse dropped their posting significantly at a significant point in the game, greatly hampering our ability to read them.

Paltry accused me of being scum for moving off mipe on to ksun, and then attacked the ksun wagon generally. Yet this "I find his wagon to be a mixture of policy / deadline lynching" is giving me a gut townread.

I need more time to think this over. These are some initial thoughts.

[Shanba]

Yos is worrying me. It feels like he's playing as if he were Sherlock Holmes or something. He has his pet theory (that richard is scum) and he's basing his interpretation of the facts around that rather than around the circumstances of the ksun wagon.

What do I mean? Well, look at the way he dismisses me as a possible scum because he thinks Richard is scum. I would expect a player looking for associative tells to go something like "here paltry excuse does an action that makes him look like ksun's partner, and here Shanba does an action that make him look like ksun's partner etc." But for Yos right now he is staring through the lens of Richardscum so that even though he thinks my actions look scummy, he doesn't think I'm scum.

Sure, he could say "well I think Richard is still scummy despite being the leading counterwagon and thus I don't think Shanba's actions are that scummy" but that's not what he's doing.

Also I don't really get the fact that he's voting Paltry over Richard (here's his stated reasons for that; his paltryexcuse case is further back in his iso).

Again, I have to say that you're just wrong here; the reasons I gave on day 1 for suspecting RichardG were and are 100% valid. Only reason I'm not voting him now is because I think the connection between PaltryExcuse and the dead scum are a stronger tell, but Richard is my #2 suspect, and if I had to guess I'd say they're probably both scum together.

I dunno. Everything he's saying is coherent, it just feels like the picture he is drawing up is stretched, dependent on too many things being just so.

There's something else that bugs me, too. He brings up a single example to show why we shouldn't assume that Ricky is town just because he was the counterwagon to scum. Okey doke, that's all fine and dandy, but a single counterexample doesn't stop something being a useful tell. And what's more, given Yos' playstyle, this should be doubly obvious/important to him. He's basically dismissing the tell on the basis of one piece of anecdotal evidence.

I see Fonz' WIFOM but in my experience with trying to read Yos, a Yos I find it hard to agree with is often a scumYos.

When I'm looking at the players, the vote counts and etc, I think FFFF is a good fallback wagon who is slightly more likely than average to be scum, but I think we have enough info from day 1 that we ought to be able to do better. Paltryexcuse is scummy, but I think Yos' case on him is somewhat overblown.

Basically, the way PaltryExcuse attacks me over swapping wagons feels town. It's like, I jump off mipe and onto ksun and he thinks "hrm, from one lurker to another? That's odd. I wonder what his reasons are," then asks me for my reasons, finds them insufficient and says it makes me likely scum. I mean, he does the same thing to Korts earlier on, so it's clearly something that he's looking for.

If he's scum trying to derail the ksun wagon, surely he would not be giving an explanation for attacking me where his possibility of attacking me is dependent on giving him a particular answer? The anatomy of the attack, the way he gives me an opportunity to defend myself, just seems town.

I think Yos is likely to be scum.

Vote: Yosarian2

Anon and Vas were two of the players I fingered yesterday in my wagon analysis. Given how that turned out, I'm a wee bit leery of assuming they're bussing scum. (A side note - all the players who jumped on every wagon that day also jumped on the ksun wagon rather than the Ricky wagon. One scenario in which the scum would rush to bus one of their members that would make sense is if they thought Ricky was a more valuable member of their scumteam than ksun, which is entirely possible given ksun's play yesterday. But ksun was a mafia power role, so yeah.)

[Shanba]

Mafiascum balancers typically put 3 scum in a twelve player game, mipe. Why would you expect so few scum in a large game? Even 3:1:8 is not unheard of.

(It's interesting to note that these games are unbalanced in mountainous, but largely irrelevant, as most games feature seriously powerful roles such as cop, which in the ms meta is almost always sane.)

[Shanba]

@Shanba: I'd like to hear what you think of the major wagons D1. Which ones were scum driven and which ones were town driven?

Izzywagon is null. dahillwagon... I dunno. ksun was on it. But then ksun was on every wagon that wasn't ksun. In general I don't like the people who were on it, so I'm going to say scumdriven.

Interesting, though, that it had so much difficulty taking off. Compare it to the mipe wagon which simply skyrocketed in comparison.

I still maintain that the mipewagon was at least partially scum driven. He was an easy target to justify a vote on and I suppose that the scum therefore found him an easier target than dahill, or perhaps a less controversial one, particularly after his reaction under pressure.

The ksun wagon was probably town driven, as is the case with any scumwagon. However, I think it's more likely than normal to have a few scumbags on - ksun was a prime target for bussing.

Ricky was a wagon I really liked and I can't blame people for supporting it. At least two players I know to be town who are relatively strong players (WOOOH EGO - me and korts) supported it, so it's hardly inconceivable that there were more town on that wagon.

I got two working hypotheses for day 1. Suppose that a lot of the wagonny group I identified on day 1 were scum: in that case, the dahill wagon was almost entirely scum driven and dahill is v. likely town. The dahill wagon was not particularly strong, so scum can't drum up much support for lynching him from townies. Then mipe comes along and plays in a way that makes a lot of townies suspect him. That wagon then looks very much like a wagon on a townie that the scum suspect will be lynched, so they pile in on him. The difference in speed and size compared to dahill is because both scum and town are on the mipewagon and only scum are on the dahill wagon.

Then we have an issue when the ksun wagon sprouts up. In this hypothesis, the scum don't just bus him, they are the driving force that turns him into a leading wagon. Why would they do that? I guess the explanation that makes the most sense in that case is that they wanted to protect a more valuable Richardscum.

If the wagonny people are mostly town, then stuff changes. Richard almost certainly is town in this case, and the people voting him when the voting was tight (notably yos and quag, as well as myself switching wagons, I suppose) are very likey to be scum. In this situation, dahill becomes much more likely scum again (though given his pushing of the ksun wagon, I'm inclined to believe he's town either way), though mipe still looks town.

At the moment I'm running with the second hypothesis, hence the Yos vote.

[Shanba]

I got two working hypotheses for day 1. Suppose that a lot of the wagonny group I identified on day 1 were scum: in that case, the dahill wagon was almost entirely scum driven and dahill is v. likely town. The dahill wagon was not particularly strong, so scum can't drum up much support for lynching him from townies. Then mipe comes along and plays in a way that makes a lot of townies suspect him. That wagon then looks very much like a wagon on a townie that the scum suspect will be lynched, so they pile in on him. The difference in speed and size compared to dahill is because both scum and town are on the mipewagon and only scum are on the dahill wagon.

Then we have an issue when the ksun wagon sprouts up. In this hypothesis, the scum don't just bus him, they are the driving force that turns him into a leading wagon. Why would they do that? I guess the explanation that makes the most sense in that case is that they wanted to protect a more valuable Richardscum.

I'm a little confused by this assumption, Shanba. Why does "the scum were pushing the mipe wagon" imply "the scum drove the ksun lynch wagon"? Who would be scum in this case? And why is that more likely then the hypothesis I was talking about, which is "most of the scum stayed on the mipe wagon, went into lurk-mode for the last week or so before deadline, and hoped that mipe would be deadline-lynched"?

That's not my actual assumption. My assumption is that the group of wagonny players I isolated yesterday were scum. They were on the mipe wagon and swapped over to the ksun wagon en masse.

Your assumption fails because there were only 4 players on the mipe wagon at the end of the day and 1 of them is dead town.

This post feels very much like mafia trying to spam The Fonz's good post off the page. He also disagree with him within this post, and I feel that his goal here is to take away from The Fonz and Yosarian developing a sort of "town circle". He is also, through doing this, sort of saving Richard. I am apt to believe that Richard, inhimshallibe and shanba are mafia.

I can definitively assure you that I was not trying to spam the fonz' post off the page. I mean, what? The mind boggles...

As for your other accusation...

surely it would be easier to disrupt such a circle by killing one of them at night? In general, scum try and lynch people that are easy to get lynched. Otherwise they risk town ignoring them and starting to think for themselves.

Also Izzy is not a bad player. Disengaged atm though. Speaking of which, we need TheStatusQuo replaced. I don't see him coming back any time soon. Also, scotmany12 needs prodding. Badly.

[Shanba]

Fonz, possibly because you're looking at vote counts, you may have missed that dahill and I were both on the mipewagon at various points. What did you make of us?

Fur: YARFP NURGLE WHIPF TURGLE.

I just made as much sense as you did in your latest post. You don't have a case, you don't seem to have anything constructive to add to the game. If you want to push a case against me, then I'm almost certain there are receptive voices, but you currently don't have one.

[Shanba]

Ok.

For those of you playing along at home, this is the part where I did what I finally managed to do on day 1 and shake off my demons to post what I actually think about the game, and not what I think I ought to think.

I am paranoid about Yosarian. He shoved hard against a ksun lynch in favour of lynching a player of unknown alignment. He seems tunneled to a slightly disturbing degree on Ricky. To the extent that he's saying I am unlikely scum because of it. I guess what I was trying to express earlier was that this feels like a type of low grade buddying to me. I am under no illusions that my play yesterday around ksun implicates me; to see someone dismiss it like that felt off. Fonz' reaction seems a whole lot more natural; he thinks it looks scummy but isn't sure whether I'm scum.

But my gut is not backing me up on a Yos suspicion, partly because I actually think Richard is still scummy. His scumhunting attempts just don't seem sincere. I mean, take his approach to the dahill wagon; first he wagons on and takes some flak for that post, then he posts a case against dahill and takes some flak for that post. To which his response is:

Do you realise how hypocritical you all are?

If I bandwagon, you'd think I'm scum for jumping on an easy lynch.

If I post a case on someone, you go out of your way to find flaws in it, so you think that I'm scum.

I'm a little confused. Would you rather I just blatantly bandwagoned? Because any attemp at posting a case on someone will only get shot down by overwhelming opposition, I can almost guarantee you. Make up your minds about what kind of votes/cases you want to see, otherwise I'm just going to plough on regardless.

This reads like scum who has tried to gauge the mood of the town, or tried some tricks to shake us off, but still can't and is getting frustrated because it seems like we're being unfair to him - we're going to lynch him and he'll turn up scum, but that's just us being lucky because our tells don't make sense to him.

The other major point I have against him is less of a psychological one, and it's something of an elaboration of the wagonning thing I was looking at yesterday - it's simply that every time he has voted, he has coincidentally believed that the best wagon, the wagon on the scummiest player, that is, has always been the hot wagon - the one that has the most activity/votes at the time when he is voting. I don't think that sort of coincidence happens naturally with a townie who is thinking for himself. No one ever agrees with the town the whole time.

I have a few other minor points, at least one of which is WIFOMMY and debatable, so I won't waste your time with them here unless you want further elaboration. Know that they are weighing on my decision, though.

In light of Richard's scumminess, I can't vote Yos in good faith. so

Unvote

but I'm not voting Richard, because I think Anon is scummier.

Anon was on two of the three pre-lynch wagons yesterday, and was also on ksun. I don't think this is intrinsically scummy, but there is a nugget of something more: He is early on dahill - in fact, the first - and early again on mipe, but late on ksun. Early on town players and late on scum players is a pattern I would expect of a scum player. mipe and dahill are of unknown alignment and he was early on them. ksun was scum and he was late on him. The fact he was early on the wagons means I am not accusing him of wagonning like I am accusing Richard - but I do think the pattern of voting is scummy.

There's also an incredibly scummy posts which iamausername missed when commenting on the connections between Anon and Richard:

Or we could get a claim from mipe, specially when we are two days away from deadline.

Do people really think, shanba et al, that there is another viable wagon besides mipe and that the voters are going to look even at it without a claim or a lynch?

Specially when the guy HASTN done anything remarkably protown?

Come on

Shanba et al I can only assume are the people jumping off the mipewagon (i.e. me and dahill). The guy we jumped on to happened to be scum. This is what PaltryExcuse is being accused of, but much much stronger imo.

Vote: Anon

[Shanba]

@Furcolow: I was looking for an opinion on anything to do with the rest of the game beyond your cases. Yos2 and I were posting heavily and the only thing you can think of is us 'derailing' it?

In other news: Vas's last post was ridiculously empty of content, and then he joins a popular wagon. Guh.

---

@TheFonz: The Quag comment is odd, (as he actually mentions something along those lines twice, ISO 63 & 71, to hammer home the point). It's slightly scummy but I don't think that's enough to build a case on.

@Shanba: Your last post indicates a strong dislike of Richard's play but a talk of connections between Anon and Richard leads to a vote on Anon. Wha? Is it just the voting block and connections? Cause that's weak.

Typo. (Freudian slip? Possibly, cause there was also an

actual

richard/anon connection I had noted, though it was weak at best.)

This sentence:

There's also an incredibly scummy posts which iamausername missed when commenting on the connections between Anon and Richard:

Should read as "connections between Anon and ksun".

But that should have also been obvious from the context.

[Shanba]

IHSIB: ddi you ever think RickyGHP was scummy then? It's not clear from your post and I want an answer so I can question you on something.

[Shanba]

IHSIB, afer you had voted and then unvoted him because you thought he might have been a nervous scum, you then pushed him a little when I was pushing him and so I asked you what you thought his alignment was. You said you thought he was town, despite the fact that you seemed to agree with parts of my analysis and you had voted him earler, too, indicating you had at least at one point thought he was scum.

What's going on there?

[Shanba]

The case against Inhim is overblown and a bit silly. There's te nugget of something maybe FoSworthy there, but that's about it. I'm much happier lynching Anon.

[Shanba]

Hey Anon did you miss my addendum to iama's case?

Also people have responded to your response already.

To people not on the Anon wagon: why not? I'm pretty sure this is the strongest wagon we've had all game (yeah I know, ksun was scum and he was wagonned, but the case was not as strong as the case against Anon is, imho.)

[Shanba]

Firstly, I think we need prods for lot of people that haven't posted recently. I haven't checked the list against game posts or whatever but I'd guess it's around half the players or so. That ought to get us a bit of forced activity at any rate.

Secondly, I think that people not voting for a wagon (mr chaos, inhim, quag, anon) ned to man up and take a stand. Maybe if activity improves we can afford to have people striking out on their own, but right now we need to muster everyone who is still active in a useful place or we'll never get anywhere.

I don't like the furcolow wagon. It seems to boil down to him playing badly and some votehopping (at least, that's the impression I get from Ricky.) Compared to Anon, who has multiple links to the confirmed dead scum, and I'm very unenthusiastic.

InHim is a better wagon, and I like the reasoning behind it, but I have a strong gut town read on him so I'm not too interested in pursuing that.

I could swap to RickyGHP over Anon, but I don't think it's smart to do so when I think Anon is scummier and the Anon wagon is larger. So I'm happy to stick right here. I know I've already asked this question, but why are the people who aren't on the Anon wagon not on it? Only furcolow gave an answer last time and it was a shitty one. I'm thinking particularly people like Yos, izzy - I know you think Ricky is scum, but you're not convinced by the case on Anon?

Let's get moving people.

[Shanba]

well, i don't know is anon is quitting because he's suspected or not -- he provides no explanation, but I suggest we lynch Richard, who is scummy, today and let the mod find a replacement for Anon.

Or we could save the mod a trip to the replacement queue.

Eh. It's not ideal, but there's always the possibility of learning something from a replacement joining the game: how do they approach that roleslot? It gives a chance to reaffirm reads without the influence of possible personality bias.

But Anon/replacement are still the scummiest players in the game.

[Shanba]

After actually looking at Anon in ISO I see the case on him now.

Unvote: Furcolow
Vote: Anon

Also, to all those who say my case on Furc was an attempt to go through every post and find something scum-like about it, THAT'S THE POINT OF AN ISO READ.

I don't like putting words in other people's mouths, but I guess what they're saying is that your cases are contrived - your iso reads are bad, because you're making every post out to be scummy when they're not actually.

I'm really uncomfortable with Ricky's hop here, but I'm comfortable enough otherwise with this wagon that I'd quite like to see it hammered soon. Anon is scummy enough to deserve a lynch, and nothing gives a game a shot in the arm like a new day. All of us who are voting anon will have to re-evaluate if he turns up town, and everyone will have new stuff to look at if he turns up scum.

I can't really see any other way to kickstart activity in this game than a lynch. I think if the anon wagon broke down now, it would be a long, painful and soul destroying wait to get a new one and the new one porbably wouldn't reach lynch anyway and we'd hit a deadline. That kind of thing would kill town's motivation deader than it already seems to be. So I urge someone to hammer, despite the fact that we're extremely unlikely to get any kind of claim.

[Shanba]

Oh, I realise I didn't mention why ricky's hop makes me uncomfortable - it smacks of the thing I found scummy about him yesterday, that is, suddenly jumping on the largest wagon with the excuse "yeah he is scummy after all". It bugs me because it looks so fundamentally dishonest the way his top suspect always seems to be everyone elses top suspect. Contrived cases on people don't really help the feeling either. At every turn it looks like he is trying to get on the easy lynch.

Anon is still scummier by virtue of strong connections to dead scum, but Ricky is not off my radar list at all.

[Shanba]

Unvote

definitely worth keeping around for a while.

Vote RickyGHP

[Shanba]

I'm not short of time over the next two days. If that's the only game in town, fine, but i think it being the only game in town is a disaster.

I agree, but that doesn't stop mr chaos' point being true. We've had woeful activity thus far in this game.

Deadline rules mean it shouldn't matter too much, though, as plurality lynches. Only thing to look out for is a residual anon wagon being the largest one at deadline.

Fonz: what's your case on VaVa? I know there have been a few thrown around and I don't really agree with many of them, so I'd like to hear what you're thinking.

[Shanba]

oh gawd.

Way to throw a spanner in the works. If you're scum, I hate you, but

Unvote

.

Need to think before casting another vote.

[Shanba]

Mr. Chaos, this is what I was hinting at earlier. It was always entirely possible Richard would claim power as well- indeed, if he's scum, it was certain. Do bear in mind town even-night tracker is pretty the weakest power role there is- I feel Richard is actually more likely scum for having made this claim. Also note we've seen the existence of scum power roles.

We can't just keep letting off anyone who claims power, because then we're basically guaranteeing a mislynch, because the only people who will claim vanilla are those who genuinely are.

You have basically three real options:

1) Lynch Richard anyway
2) Join me on Vasude
3) Lynch a lurker/flaker who was on mipe- Paltry, Quag, or Zoraster. My preference of these would be Zoraster since neither player in that slot has contributed. I've got reasons to think the other two town- I've never seen an actual scum state a willingness to bet money someone else is scum, and with Paltry, I've explained above.

I see what you mean, it's just...

eh. I don't really want to lynch a power role at this stage in the game - especially when he has the possibility of actioning tonight in a game where that's not necessarily the case.

Well, it's not a disaster if we lynch a power role. We can still win if we lynch a power role. I'm coming around to getting back on richard, but I'm just not sure here. Indecision, blaaah.

Preview edit: Vava, how does Ricky's claim make my attack on him any worse? Are you insinuating that I knew his role and was trying to get him lynched because of that? Or are you saying that Ricky's claim clears him? Both of those are ridiculous bullshit.

Secondly, I note you dismiss my analysis as a wall of text and a claim that there's a link between ksun, ricky and inhim. That's not true. My "wall of text" was looking at voting patterns in an unusually wagon-heavy day 1, and discovering that those who had been wagonning all day (which is a scumtell) who were also more or less individually scummy (like ksun or richard) were tending to move over to the ksun wagon rather than the Richard wagon. I am almost certain that there were scum in that group I isolated (indeed, as you note, ksun was scum and he was part of that group) and that group wanted ksun lynched over richard. So I wanted to vote the guy the scumgroup didn't seem to want dead. I know how that looks scummy in retrospect, but your post there is a blatant mischaracterisation of the post itself.

In fact, I think that's probably the best piece of scumhunting I've managed all game.

[Shanba]

I don't buy it. Explanations are secondary to the votes.

It's pretty damning that you didn't vote for ksun when you expressed interest in his wagon earlier in the game.

I did vote for ksun, and I unvoted him to vote ricky.

Explanations are secondary to the votes? Bull. It's true that scum can justify just about anything - but the thing is, those explanations frequently look or sound contrived. In fact that's one of the key things that I've found scummy about Richard in this game - the explanations that he has given for his votes look like scum trying to justify a move to x or y wagon, rather than a townie who is legitimately interested in scumhunting.

Now say what you like about my vote, I think my thinking given what I knew was sound - and I think that comes through in my post, too. I know I'm biased, but when I read that thing, it comes off as town every time, and that's because it's an honest account what was going through my head. I don't think a scum could have made that up, frankly.

Your point, that I wagonned off a scum onto a player of unknown alignment, is fundamentally true. But it is weaker unless you can give an explanation of why the manner in which I did it is particularly scummy.

I note you didn't reply to my point about the Ricky's claim thing.

[Shanba]

I'm here, after a wonderful weekend. :)

Anyway, looking at Richard's claim, I'm willing to at the very least wait a day and see if he can confirm his tracker claim tommorow. If he's telling the truth, it's very likely he'll have some confirming information. (Of course, scum trackers are also possible, ect.) Still, willing to wait a day on this, and if we're lucky we might get some information.

Unvote:Richard

Vote:Paltry Excuse

I'd like to do the same thing on Richard, but I'm not very enthused by the alternatives; I've already voiced my misgivings about lynching paltry, and I have some misgivings about lynching VaVa too. I guess the zoraster wagon looks pretty inoccuous, but I don't want inoccuous, I want scummy. :/ I'm debating getting back on the wagon, but I'm not there yet.

I don't see any point in responding to VaVa if he's stated that he's not going to read my posts anyway.

[Shanba]

Fonz: The reason is that I'm having a hard time distinguishing the legit scummy from the simpy bad play on VaVa. Most of the day 1 badtheory stuff was garbage and I spent a lot of effort arguing against it at the time. Particularly things like his wagonning and the bad reasoning for his votes - that smells of inexperience rather than of scumminess. I acknowledge that he claimed that wagonning is the optimal scum tactic day 1 and that does make him significantly scummier in my eyes.

The problem I also have is that I've only really started looking at him at around the time that he's started attacking me. I know I have a tendency to bias in these cases, so I'm doubtful of my ability to read him correctly right now.

I agree with you that his vote on ksun is not particularly unbuslike. I also agree that some of that group you keep highlighting are the most likely to have been bussing. But I still have lingering doubts about whether there was bussing going on at all; my assumption is "probably yes" if richard turns up scum and "not so likely - much more likely to have scum in the residual mipe wagon" if Richard is town. So I see the case on him as at least partially a connection between him and Richard, and it cuts stronger Richard-> VaVa than VaVa->Richard. So I'd prefer to be lynching Richard.

[Shanba]

The thing is, Shanba, none of those players you identified as uberwagonny, and probably scum, in justifying your move to the Richard wagon, could be described as 'good players.' So there's an issue in telling the scummy from the incompetent with all of them, and you you definitely were claiming to think that that group of players was scummy.

Note to self: Have completely forgotten about IAAUN and scot. Neither was particularly town.

Yeah, that's the thing about VaVa; he seems particularly new to mafia, hence the day 1 spewing. Someone like Anon, for example, has at least been around for a period of time and has some idea of the mores and customs of this site. Even Richard seems like a more experienced player, to me.

I am wary of the possibility that VaVa was playing up his rawness, but I'm fairly certain that it wasn't all faked; for example, just a few posts up he made another disclaimer type statement ("I'm a pretty gullible person IRL") - from my experience of new players or players lacking in confidence, that's exactly the kind of thing that they're likely to say. And the mistakes that he's being castigated for are also the mistaked of the new - a predisposition for following the crowd.

Richard has been far more independent in his viewpoints when he's not been wagonning; he's need far less hand-holding, which tells me he is more comfortable with the game, and makes his wagonning more egregious. Do you see? Similarly Anon and IHSIB.

IAAUN and scot have disappeared, and so has quagmire. IAAUN and quag were striking me as town, though, so I'm not too worried (though I'd like them back). Scot was reading neutral/vaguely scummish so I'd like to see more off him.

[Shanba]

I guess it's not entirely clear from my posts right now, but I do think VaVa is scummier than zoraster. My problem right now is that I want to be voting Richard (or possibly Anon, but now is not the right time for skhunting) and I'm not sure whether the tradeoff of more likely scum versus possible power role is worth it.

[Shanba]

Despite the fact that I want to lynch Richard or anon above VaVa or zoraster, I think the downside is bigger than the upside in this case this early in the game.

Zoraster is ok as cases go, but of the two I think VaVa is probably slightly better. My views on this are not fully formed and if I get a chance to review the cases later today or tomorrow pre-deadline I will, but given exams my time to do that is curtailed.

Vote: VasudeVa

[Shanba]

Fonz: funny you should say that. Do you remember my day 1 voting analysis thing? I picked out ksun, inhim and ricky in red. Hah, and then I went after ricky. Inhim was the worst wagonner of the lot, he just sometimes chose to wagon on scum.

There was too much town power. I was damn sure there would be an even night vig out there; I was going to use that when I came under some pressure (I figured that would happen eventually after my late switch day 1.)