NY 118 - BBM's Large Normal Mafia (Game!)

[Wraith]

If we get this completely wrong, we'll be in kingmaker tomorrow. Keep that in mind.

[Wraith]

@Antihero: The "Kingmaker Situation" I refer to is a situation where there are two killing parties still alive with town in between. If we mislynch today and the scum/SK don't kill each other, the situation will be:

2 Townies
1 Scum
1 SK

At that point the town can't win, because they will lynch one party and the other will kill+endgame the other townies. It's basically the killer-parties voting for each other and the town playing "kingmaker" in crowning who wins the game.

[Wraith]

@pacman: common sense. With an SK I highly doubt there's more than one scum left. If I'm wrong and we mislynch, we lose anyways, so I really don't care.

[Wraith]

I think I might, since Prozac was pretty bent on lynching me yesterday.

[Wraith]

Ugh, just do it. I'm tired of waiting.

[Wraith]

I don't think the SK is bulletproof. If he's any variation, I'd bet on investigation-immune.

[Wraith]

Oh wait, forgot this was a normal. He's probably just a vanilla SK.

[Wraith]

???

I wasn't? I don't know what you're talking about.

And Antihero has had PLENTY of time to end the day.

[Wraith]

^
Anti can go either way though.

[Wraith]

If there are two scum left, flinter is one of them. A No Lynch is the WORST POSSIBLE THING to do right now.

[Wraith]

If we go by your assumptions, flinter, and there are 2 scum+1 SK, then we have a 50% chance of lynching any scum today. Better to go with our best reads and hope we hit. Also, I failed to take the second kill into account. If we lynch today, there will be two kills tonight, and a three-way kingmaker (if the scum don't crosskill one way or the other)

[Wraith]

Let me put it in math:

Assume 2 scum, 3 town, 1 SK

No Lynch
scum kill town
SK kill town
Scum Victory

No Lynch
scum kill town
SK kill scum
1 scum, 1 SK, 2 town

No Lynch
scum kill SK
SK kill town
Scum Victory

No Lynch
scum kill SK
SK kill scum
1 scum, 3 town

Lynch scum
Scum kill town
SK kill town

1 scum, 1 town, 1 SK -> kingmaker

Lynch SK
scum kill town
Scum Victory (that's...disturbing)

Lynch Town
SK kills town
scum kill town
Scum Victory

Lynch Town
scum kill SK
SK kill town
Scum Victory

Lynch Town
scum kill town
SK kill scum
1 scum, 1 SK, 1 town->kingmaker

Lynch town
scum kill SK
SK kill scum
1 scum, 2 town

Assume 1 scum, 4 town, 1 SK

Lynch scum
SK kill town
3 townie, 1 SK

Lynch SK
scum kill town
3 townie, 1 scum

Lynch town
SK kill town
scum kill town
Kingmaker

Lynch town
SK kill scum
scum kill town
1 scum, 1 SK, 2 town

Lynch town
SK kill town
scum kill SK
1 scum, 3 town

That's almost every possibility. If your assumptions are correct, town has very very little hope of winning no matter what. If my assumptions are correct, town has high chance of winning no matter what. No Lynch is simply the worst possible option, and town would only win on sheer dumb luck.

[Wraith]

@flinter: I did the math. Based on YOUR assumptions, scum will win most of the time if we No Lynch. Are you saying you no longer thinkg there are two scum left?

@pacman: Hydra is when two players create a joint account where they both know the passwor and play together.

[Wraith]

I don't think the SK is bulletproof, this is a normal.

[Wraith]

Oh shit. I was totally convinced flinter was the last scum.

Vote: Antihero

Damn good game, dude. I didn't suspect you much until about Day 5.

[Wraith]

I'm so glad I managed to nail two scum this game. My play's been pretty shit in almost all my other games.

Also, I KNEW in my gut that something was up with ConfidAnon. I thought CA was scum for a while, but once dana got shoved in my eye I practically dropped him.

[Wraith]

Xite should not have defended dana so hard D3. If he had been scum I could cite it as the epitome of chainsaw defense.

I do have to say that the singersigner lynch was not my finest hour. My gut was nagging me from the moment I put my vote down on her. I never should have gone alone with it.

I thought it was Gorrad and SHanba first, but once they flipped I was pretty sure it was Antihero or flinter. Near the end of D7 I was pretty certain flinter was the fifth scum and Anti was SK.

[Wraith]

It's a compliment silly

You had us so convinced that you were town. I think he thought flinter was the last scum too.

[Wraith]

@Anti: In kingmaker I would have crowned you. No question. I think I made it pretty clear that the scumteam made some pretty poor kill decisions. Reading the quicktopic, the one thing they definitely got right was their keeping me alive for a mislynch, which was very viable all game.

As for me, my Day 1 and Day 6 play was pretty atrocious, but after that I think I did very well, especially my case agaist dana D3 and D4.

Evilpacman was the only scummer who had be entirely fooled. Nhammen might have too if he had lived longer. Benmage would have been lynched eventually, especially with all the lurking he was doing. I had DH pegged on D6 and wanted to lynch him then (I think), but I don't think the town would have gone for it.

[Wraith]

Third Party is very difficult but can be veery fun.

[Wraith]

I'm kind of with flinter on that issue. DH did make quite a few posts that just rubbed me the wrong way, but in the end I primarily lynched him because of Reck's play early in the game.

[Wraith]

TBH, when DP ended up dead D2 I should have immediately pegged Dana for sure. But I wasn't convinced until D3.