Mafia 119: MURDER AT HOTEL DEATH(GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1068 (isolation #0) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:47 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

Hello everyone.
I have replaced Pom in this game. Since you all know that my role implies a night shot, I need to start with a short post to explain what just happened.
I have shot someone last night, but apparently my target was either saved by a protective role, or was nightkill immune, or I may have been roleblocked. In other words, my target is still alive.

I now wonder if I should or should not make his identity public.

Also: do you guys want me to produce a wall commenting into detail the first 43 pages of game? I am leaning towards doing it, but you gotta give me a little more time. It's a long game.
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:50 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

Just a quick post.
Normally I wouldn't, cuz I'd risk outting a clear; but the situation here is not normal, so I want to reveal the identity of the target and I will explain why.

I shot a2rudeboy, because I thought he was the second scummiest player after prana and that if he flipped scum, then prana was very likely to be scum as well.

The reason why I am revealing this is simple: I find it hard to believe that a pro-town protective role would have felt like saving a2rudeboy last night. If I were a protective role, I would have a list of 3 or 4 not at all scummy or at least less scummy players I'd save. Anyway
please, if there is a doc and doc was on a2rudeboy, DON'T CLAIM


But let's think of the other options: is a2rudeboy nk-immune? And if he is, wouldn't it be too optimistic assuming that he is town-aligned? Town has already a lot of pr's... and anyway, if he were a town-aligned nk-immune role, then he could not be killed by scum, so why not claim before?
And if he isn't, how about a mafia-doctor?

I feel this is stuff we can work on, so you guys think about it while I fill a wall with my words.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:06 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

I have another short consideration, sorry (I promise that I will also comment on the rest of the game).

How the hell does a hider die??? In my experience, there are three ways:
1) he hides behind a targetted player;
2) he does not hide and gets targetted
3) he hides behind a scum/killer

Who was he hiding behind in your opinion, and how did he die? I am sincerely interested in the answers by Jack, a2rudeboy and pranadevil.
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:38 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

curiouskarmadog wrote:lewarcher, why did you chose rude over PD?
1) I am convinced that Jack is town and I am convinced that both rude and prana are scum,
2) I am convinced that town is more inclined to lynch prana than rude,
3) rude is somewhat "in the middle" and would have a double effect, meaning that if he flipped scum, then I would have felt even more sure about Jack's townness and at the same time prana's scumminess would have become even more evident.

This three reasons combined made me go for rude.

(the fact that I had 2 days in the middle of the week to read 43 pages do not help me answer this kind of questions, tho. I have to admit that I had to be very quick in order ro read all the main events before shooting. Still, even now as I re-read, I remain fond of my choice and I would do the same)

Also, before I forgot:
English Second Language
. I apologise for any mistakes and typos :-D
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #4) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 5:11 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

vollkan wrote:
lew wrote: 3) rude is somewhat "in the middle" and would have a double effect, meaning that if he flipped scum, then I would have felt even more sure about Jack's townness and at the same time prana's scumminess would have become even more evident.
I may be misunderstanding you (I note you said English isn't your first language), but are you saying that you think PD is scummier than a2, but you want to lynch a2 because you think his lynch has more information value?
More or less. I had the feeling that both players are scummy: I wouldn't say that a2rude is less scummy than prana, but I had the feeling that the other players seem more receptive of prana's scumminess. Therefore I decided to shoot a2rude. Because I held both for scummy, and a2rude flipping scum would have had more information value.

I apologise for my English, it is normally better than that. I am very tired and busy these days. I also apologise for not having posted more, yet. It is the first time I replace in a game on day 4: I guess I underestimated the amount of stuff I have to read.
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Post Post #1099 (isolation #5) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 5:28 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

PranaDevil wrote:
Jack wrote:prana do you have any comment on what lewarcher just said?
I don't know really. It seems a long winded way to say "I shot a2rudeboy even though Prana was my biggest suspect", in which case I wonder why he didn't target me.

In fact, it sounds like a very nice way of saying "I kept someone I thought would be an easy lynch alive and took out someone who may not have been, only to find they lived".

He posts his reasoning further down, but I don't buy it. It's plausible it's scum distancing from each other. Plus, considering a2 didn't die it would be a lovely way to excuse why lew didn't "act" last night. Because he was taking out the tracker.
peole have convinced me that the best explanation is a roleblocker. You must make sure you protect him, prana, cuz if the dies and it's not you there is not much you can do to wake up on day5.
Also: I never said you were my biggest suspect. I said you were the biggest suspect of the other players. As for me, as I clearly said, I am convinced that you are both scum.

I shot a2rudeboy. What is the other option? I shot the tracker and the hider behind him (or the hider died some other misterious way) and scum did not shoot? You don't even make a little sense. Try something better next time, cuz this is almost embarassing.
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Post Post #1109 (isolation #6) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:18 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

This post will be the first of a series of posts that aim to tentatively explore the possible identity of further mafia members together with a2rude and prana, on whose guilt I almost have no doubts left (but I will add something about prana, as well).

An important question to everyone: referring to post 989, why did you all vote silver? reading it now, it seems pretty obvious that it was not a scummy reaction. It is obvious that he was not sure if he could reveal what you were asking to him. He even said he was going to look for mod.

I am surprised by the general reaction, but I will also say something more on the single voters:

Prana: you switched from evil, after a real crusade against him, to silver without even raising any doubts... this is scummy as hell, at least to me;

Jack: it was my understanding that you might know something about post-restrictions, and you knew it since a very early phase of the game, this is at least what someone inferred. Now the question I am asking myself, rather than asking it to you, is: if you do, and you are perhaps a post-restricted townie, too, why didn't you assume that silver was a town-fellow of yours? Did you have any reasons to believe that a player with post-restrictions should have been scum?

Volltron: there was no bw on silver, so it is correct to state that you actually started the events that lead to his claim and to his death. Why
shouldn't Icall you a fisher?

mod: is it too soon to ask for a2rudeboy to be prodded?
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #7) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:19 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

evilpacman, u put prana at L-1, not L-2
,just so you know LoL
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Post Post #1112 (isolation #8) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:25 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

u did not unvote jack, look at 1106
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Post Post #1114 (isolation #9) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:49 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

aww, misread the votecount. Sorry. It is L-2, my bad
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #10) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:47 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

EBWOP: vollkan, not volltron, in post 1109. sorry, it's the name of a player from another game LoooL
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #11) » Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:29 am

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evilpacman18 wrote:Vollkan, the double negative in my post is confusing you.

Those two people are jack and PD and my point was that you have supported voting for them so why do I become stupid when I voted for them? Because it would be contradictory of you to tell me I'm VI for voting them, I must be VI for voting you and "You're an idiot" is an extremely scummy defense.

So you and PD are a scum team. A2 and LMP are town. Jack's alignment will come if I see either PD's or a2's flip. And that's everybody I can think of without looking at the OP.
If I was roleblocked, it would naturally *not* imply that my failed target is scum, cuz scum would not know whom I was shooting, especially considering that I was replacing during the night, so no1 could anticipate what my readings of the game would have been.

Still I have a question to everyone. Why are we assuming that only two players are scum? This was a 18 player game, 2 scum died, I see no reason to assume they were just 4. if they were 5, then we would be on a near-mylo situation (I call near-mylo any situation in which mylo's risks are mitigated by the presence of a living vig).
vollkan wrote:
lew wrote: Volltron: there was no bw on silver, so it is correct to state that you actually started the events that lead to his claim and to his death. Why
shouldn't Icall you a fisher?
I accept that it was because of me that he claimed. I don't think I acted unreasonably, though:
- Jack's D1 play strongly suggested that the presence of a post restriction would indicate scum; and he specifically asked anybody who spotted one to point it out
- Silver appeared to have a post-restriction
- Accordingly, I pointed it to Jack

"Fisher" has negative connotations, and it implies that a person is chasing power roles for no good reason. While the consequences of my pointing out Silver's PR to Jack were bad, my motivations weren't.
yes, "fisher" was written to provoke you a little :-)
my problem is, however, that it seems
really really evident
that silver was not *shaking head* out of the fear that revealing post-restriction related information was forbidden. Also note that Jack is constantly referring to his own insider info, but he did not enter in any details, probably for the very same reason. So how come you guys did not realise that before bw'ing him?
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Post Post #1130 (isolation #12) » Sun Oct 31, 2010 9:36 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

I am never confortable with letting one day finish with one player who didn't even post a single line, and at the same time I do not like to be a non-voter for such a long time. I am not hammering, but I rather place my
vote: a2rudeboy
and wait for the prod-time to expire.
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #13) » Sun Oct 31, 2010 11:09 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

Welcome back prana. Since you are at L-1, may I ask what is your opinion on the number of mafia? In other words, is it mylo or do we have a ml?
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Post Post #1135 (isolation #14) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:40 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

vollkan wrote:
lew wrote: Still I have a question to everyone. Why are we assuming that only two players are scum? This was a 18 player game, 2 scum died, I see no reason to assume they were just 4. if they were 5, then we would be on a near-mylo situation (I call near-mylo any situation in which mylo's risks are mitigated by the presence of a living vig).
A game with a 13:5 (town:scum) setup has 27.78% scum. The standard normal game has a 9:3 setup, which is 25% scum. If the setup was 14:4, then there'd be 22.2% scum. Since this game appears power-role heavy, it follows that it's even more likely to have a higher proportion of scum than a normal game. Thus, it follows that it is more likely MYLO (5:3) than not (6:2).

So, you've made a good point :|

That said, I don't think No Lynch is a good idea in the circumstances, even though it is most likely MYLO. Even if we No Lynch, there is still a risk of insta-loss (if both the scumkill and vigkill hit town). Ie:
A) If Lew is scum, then No Lynch basically equals a loss
B) If Lew is town, then No Lynch still carries a risk of loss. The only way to eliminate that risk would be for Lew not to kill but, in that case, there is a high likelihood that, come tomorrow, our situation is exactly the same as now minus Lew, which has negligible information-advantage.
I agree. The whole analysis is very much correct. Anyway, I am not suggesting nl. I only think that the reactions of some players to this problem may be extremely interesting. For instance, if I were town and I were at L-1 on mylo, I would be posting a lot more content and a lot more protests and complaints than prana is doing... wouldn't you?

Moreover: if the absolute majority of town (4) asks me to nokill, I will not shoot. You guys decide.
Just an observation, tho. Assume we are on mylo: if we mislynch and I nk, tomorrow it is 6 with 3 scum, which means gameover.
Wouldn't it be better to say that I will nk if and only if we lynch scum? Cuz if we mislynch, I may be the only chance for us to have a tomorrow...
vollkan wrote:
Lew wrote: my problem is, however, that it seems really really evident that silver was not *shaking head* out of the fear that revealing post-restriction related information was forbidden. Also note that Jack is constantly referring to his own insider info, but he did not enter in any details, probably for the very same reason. So how come you guys did not realise that before bw'ing him?
I can't see how any of what you've said amounts to fishing. You seem to be assuming that, despite the three points I raised in my previous post (which, in sum, said "Silver is very likely scum"), I should have hesitated on the purely speculative basis that "He might be a power role".
Your answer is satisfactory. As a matter of fact, I am the kind of player who is very nervous about forcing pr's to claim, so the first thing I noticed as I re-read was: omg, silver was obvpr!!! But I can understand how your points regarding him being scummy also make sense. I can call myself overcautious and temporarily withdraw the question. On the other hand, I did not get real answers by prana on this very point. :nerd: :nerd: :nerd:
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Post Post #1143 (isolation #15) » Mon Nov 01, 2010 9:11 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

apparently we have a hammer, so yes, evil
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Post Post #1148 (isolation #16) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 1:17 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

since we lynched mafia, I decided not to shoot, according to what discussed in post 1133 and 1135.

I will not be able to post for the whole weekend, except perhaps tomorrow in the afternoon (Berlin-Rome time zone), so I will write a copule of things and hope we can focus on them:

1) scum killing Jack is weird. Could very well be an attempt at framing a2rudeboy. But I am still wondering how the hell he survived my shot the other night.
2) Prana was a GF. GF is a very strong role. It would be weird for scum to have a GF, a watcher AND a role blocker. So there are two further options:
2a) there is a town doctor who save a2rudeboy;
2b) there is a town roleblocker who did not want me to shoot.
3) Jack was a VT. Which means he was lying about his inside-information on post-restriction.
4) if there are 2 scums left, we are on mylo; if there is only 1, we have ml's. Unless I will find myself in utter and strong disagreement with the rest of you, I will keep night-acting according to what the majority of town expects me to do.
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Post Post #1156 (isolation #17) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:40 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

very quickly from the middle of a conference (I already apologised for that, I will post more tomorrow): I re-read my quick post from yesterday, and yeah, post 1133 is quite misquoted there; anyway in my post 1135 (an answer to voll 1133), I explained that I would have shot if we myslynched, in order to try and avoid a likely defeat given by a possible 3 vs 3 situation; otherwise I would not have shot.
There was no negative reaction to that, and I acted accordingly.

As for option 2c by CKD, according to which I would have lied about me shooting a2rudeboy yesterday: How would it be my interest to do it as scum? And how did the damn hider die? And what did scum do while I was "shooting the tracker"? I already answered this when prana moved the very same objection yesterday (great authority for you to quote). Go back and check it out; I will answer any question - and repeat my reasons - tomorrow.

Someone will be so nice to answer me about the weird "insider info" Jack claimed to have about post-restrictions? You cannot deny that it is an anomaly, so you need to have some thoughts about it. I am totally ok with massclaiming. My claim is obvious, but I will give more details.
Still, I suggest we claim in a given order. Lynch, who proposed the claim, chooses the first to claim, and so on. Standard procedure, anyone will know how it works.

If you want me to claim me first, u better answer in the next 60 minutes; after that I will be
V/LA for the next 24 hours
.
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Post Post #1159 (isolation #18) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:21 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

cuz if we were on mylo and mislynched, it would have been town auto-loss: from 5vs3 d4 to 3vs3 d5, unless I shot and killed scum. Is my post 1135 so unclear?

I claim
town vig
, I belong to the same neighborhood as Zetsch, namely the Shawshank Neighborhood. I am now the last living member of it.
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #19) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:15 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

very quickly as I haven't slept for 36 hours.

CKD: the fact that someone was jailed does not clear it, naturally. If pacman were mafia and had a mafia partner, his jailing would not prevent nk.

LMP: what do you mean "his claim is accurate"? My character in this game, Pom and then me, is a neighborhood member, still I (Pom) had no idea what the role of Z was, and Z actually fosed Pom for a short time at the very beginning of the game. So how would you know if his claim is accurate?

@Mod: sidenote for future reference (I am a kick in the balls, sorry): it is not a good idea to let a day become night and then day again with an inactive player. Now we can easily assume that a2rudeboy & pacman are not scumbuddies, as one was jailed and the other was inactive. This is an information we can use, but the way we got it is not fair.
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Post Post #1173 (isolation #20) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:20 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

EBWOP: I wrote "I (Pom) had no idea what the role of Z was", I naturally meant alignment, not role. Better get some sleep
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Post Post #1186 (isolation #21) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 11:10 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

CKD asked me if I agree on the fact that jack's posts about insider-info on post-restr. are the reason why he was lynched.
My answer in German would be jain, so "a little yes and a little no", because there is a high chance that jack was also lynched to make me (us?) become even more convinced that a2rudeboy is in fact scum. I am being devoured by doubts right now.
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Post Post #1189 (isolation #22) » Mon Nov 08, 2010 1:20 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

it does not, again sorry if I did not explain myself. I mean that since Jack has been attacking a2rudeboy yesterday, this could be an attempt at framing a2rudeboy.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #23) » Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:02 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

still, a lot has happened after that discussion, while you were active lurking. Does the idea of a town with little or no VTs still seems accaptable or even likely to you?

Also: about the number of mafias: you mean that you believe there is only 1 (which, as at least vollkan and I believe, would make the setup a little town-sided) and at the same time you believe tha almost all town roles have special powers? Isn't this a little hard to believe?

Also, if you believe only 1 scum is left, how could it be pacman? I did not shoot and still there was a kill, and pacman was jailed.

Explain, please.
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Post Post #1210 (isolation #24) » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:57 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

...which has what to do with the fact that you voted pacman and quickly unvoted him? Your unvote is not explained by your post.
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #25) » Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:06 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

mod: Votecount please
It only takes 4 to lynch, so I think you should post a VC on every page, to make sure that everyone knows the meaning of single votes.

a2rudeboy: I think that you should comment on what happened while you was lurking. A whole day passed. A scum was lynched. A lot of people have being discussing your alignment.
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Post Post #1228 (isolation #26) » Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:07 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

So i see ckd who was interrogating a2, questioning a2's vote. A2 unvotes and lmp comments that a2 is scummy. Then ckd is bothered by lmp's post, and lmp votes him. A lot of stuff happened. I am a little bothered by lmp 1224 but I wonder if ckd and a2 couldn't scumbuddies... Actually, ckd' innocence is implied by all the posts of a2...
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #27) » Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:59 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

Mod: check the votes
, your votecount may be inaccurate. LMP is voting CKD, not A2, ad far as I see... and I thought a2 had unvoted... so lmp should be at L-3, and so CKD.

I doublechecked it; it's fine. LMP unvoted ckd and is not currently voting. a2 unvoted pacman then voted LMP.
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Post Post #1248 (isolation #28) » Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:27 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

it is interesting, vollkan. I had shot a2 back on n3. I had no idea why it didn't work, you let me speculate about town/maf docs roleblockers for 6 pages, and finally it turns out that I was jailed by you. And now you contemplate the option of us being scumpartners?

I did not shoot because I did not want to put town on 3:2 lylo. Already explained that.

I now post my priority chain, from the scummiest to the less scummy:
a2rudeboy
>
vollkan = evilpacman
>
LMP
>
CKD


I feel like LMP is a honestly frustrated town. He actually did a lot of work.

sidenote: it is stupid and anti-town to jail a town vig to protect him. It is not pro-town for a vig to shoot, but it is pro-town to prevent him from shooting?
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #29) » Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:17 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

vollkan did:
vollkan wrote:EBWOP:

Our Neighbourhood is the Alcatraz Neighbourhood

And the asterisks in my previous post are a typo left over from when I first typed out the history I had the explanations for each kill at the bottom:
ie.
LMP JKed me*
LMP JKed me*
LMP JKed Lewarcher*
LMP JKed pacman***


(* protective basis)
(*** scumhunting basis)

But then I decided just to simplify it with the two sentences at the end of my post.
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Post Post #1275 (isolation #30) » Sun Nov 14, 2010 6:29 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

vollkan wrote:
LMP wrote: If there is a night that makes one of us (vollkan and me) more likely to be scum, it is that night. The fact that we JK'ed a vig and the scum killed the tracker instead, is pretty bad. I'd think they'd fear a vig much more than a tracker, so the tracker dying instead is curious. Does anyone disagree with this?
I'd normally agree, but then we have to explain the kill of Jack last night. There was no suggestion that Jack had a power of any sort, making him an even less likely death than silver. So I'm not sure what is going on.
I do not understand the connection, vollkan. LMP is referring to n3, not n4. So how is your comment an answer to the post you quote?

@LMP: I naturally agree, n3 is a problematic night. How did you decide to jail me instead of the tracker? Who proposed it in the first place? Why did the other jailer agree? Where you both convinced that I am not scum? If so, why? I would like you both to answer extensively describing the events of that night. Quoting is forbidden, I guess, but a paraphrasis will do.
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Post Post #1280 (isolation #31) » Sun Nov 14, 2010 11:27 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

there is a chance we can get some results if we looked at n3 from a different perspective.

step 1: from my point of view, knowing my alignment is town, and from the point fo view of anyone who believes I am town, n4 can only be explained by the fact that mafia must have believed that Jack was a PR. This is very likely (I ddi believe he was, for instance), because of his posts regarding "inside information" on silver's restrictions.

step 2: killing a claimed tracker was a risky move for scum. In fact, even though the jailers had not claim, scum could not easily assume that town had no protective roles. A doc would have been enough to stop their kill. It was a risk, still they took that risk anyway, and they succeeded.

step 3: wouldn't it be more likely for scum to attack a PR if they knew that this PR was not protected? Knowing that there were jailers, would have made a town doc unlikely to exist, and knowing that jailers were jking vig and not tracker would have meant that scum could safely target the tracker.

Looking at things from this point of view, the idea that one of the jailers may be scum becomes very attractive. I find LMP townier than vollkan, as I already said. Moreover, according to the report by LMP, which was not contraddicted by vollkan, it was vollkan who:
1) first suggested to jk me;
2) seemed pretty sure jailers would not die.

vote:vollkan


I am very interested in reading the reaction by vollkan and pacman (and not only because he is voting vollkan; I will explain later). There was an earthquake in my scum-to-town list: post 1248 is not up-to-date anymore.
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Post Post #1285 (isolation #32) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:02 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

unvote


oh, dear. I misread LMP's post and thought you were the very one who suggested to jail me. This does not invalidate the rest of my post and I would like the others to comment on what I have written there. But the biggest reason to assume that the supposed scummy jailer falls with my mistaken assumption he pushed for my jailing.
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Post Post #1287 (isolation #33) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:14 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

I am at work and lunch-break is over, so I cannot read all your posts right now. I apologise. I will read them tonight and give all my cooìmments. Right now I just saw the part in bold and realised I misread lmp.
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Post Post #1302 (isolation #34) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 10:45 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

ok, there we go. I am going to conclude this wall with a vote and with the strong suggestion that we make a lynch follow that vote.

First, as I promise, I will comment on vollkan's posts in reply to my case on "him" (or, more precisely, on the jailers).
vollkan wrote: Scum routinely kill power roles even if there is the risk of a protective role existing. It’s always a risk, and I don’t think you can seriously argue that it is scummy in this particular game when the risk is taken all the time by scum (and, don’t forget, that they were able to kill power roles on Nights 1 and 2 which, if anything, would have made them less likely to think that there were protective roles).
This is correct. On the other hand, I was suggesting to use a bottom-up systemic approach to the problem. If there was a night in which the vig was less likely to be protected/watched/guarded
oder was auch immer
, that was the night that followed a tracker claim. Since no protective role ever died, and since scum had very powerful pr's (a gf, a watcher), then it would have been correct to assume that someone would have have been there to protect the claimed tracker (in my priority list, a tracker who is not cc'd is more dangerous than a vig)... therefore I found the idea of scum being informed on the protective activity of town(?) jailers very attractive.
But... there is a but:
vollkan wrote: Final post, I promise.

I just thought of a useful analogy that might better illustrate my problem with the N3/N4 argument:

Country X and Country Y are at war. X has 10 nuclear missile bases (numbered B1 to B10). X also has an anti-missile defence system (MDS) able to protect 1 base at a time. Only Mr Smith, a defence specialist of X, knows which base is protected by MDS.

In June 2009, Smith decides to use the MDS to protect B1, In that same month, Y decides to make an attack on X's nuclear capabilities and decides to bomb B2, despite it being the second-best base.

In July, Smith becomes fearful that there may be enemy agents working in B10, so he decides to travel to B10 and personally investigate its staff, leaving no base protected. That same month, Y decides to launch another attack, this time bombing B6, a mediocre base, of far less strategic value than B1.

In August, the media learn the background to the June attack. Smith is accused of being a traitor, on the basis that it makes no sense that Y would decide to target B2, an inferior base, over B1 - unless they knew that B1 was protected, which could only mean that Smith was guilty of treason.

Smith, fearing mob retribution, receives permission from The X Defence Department to go public with the information that, in July, Y destroyed B6, even though B1 was unprotected. In a press conference, Smith makes the point that if Y was being informed about the MDS's location and considered B1 a high-priority targeted, then they should have targeted B1 in July. As such, Smith argues, it makes no sense to hold Smith responsible for the June attack and, moreover, it appears that B1 is not considered a high-priority target.
you are correct here. We can paraphrase this and simply wonder: why wasn't I (Pom) killed on N4? Three possible answers:
1) answer 1: Because I am scum.
2) answer 2: Because scum was convinced that Jack was a PR. "Insider information" may have meant that Jack was in contact with Silver; they may have thought that he was some kind of deputy tracker. The second advantage of this option is that scum could easily invoke answer 1 and say: lew is still alive, he must be scum. I am surprised that they did not.
3) answer 3: Because they assumed I was probably going to be protected (knowing that they had not saved a2rudeboy, they knew for a fact that a protective role did exist). In this case, both jailers must be town.

Regarding LMP's reread post, just a few observations:
referring to Snake's accusation at CKD, LMP writes:
LMP wrote: Some of you may scream WIFOM at this, but I see this as evidence that CKD is town. For one, the scum watcher targeted CKD (presumably to catch a protective role that might try to save the vig) and for another, if CKD was scum, there is no reason scum-Snake would have come out like this and tried to push his lynch. I don't see how there would have been enough gain to bus at this point.
I am confused. Say CKD is not mafia. Even if he convinced town to vote CKD, there are two possible outcomes:
1) CKD turns out to be a visiting role: he lied about part of his claim, but he is town;
2) CKD is now just a VT.
In both cases, Snake gets lynched the following day. Or, more likely, I will shoot him at night. What was the advantage? Does it even make sense?

I am fairly convinced that CKD is town, too, and I think that this was just a noobish attempt by mafia watcher. But still I would not define it a proof of CKD's innocence.
LMP wrote: Everyone please pay attention to this: Tomorrow, if either of the JKs are dead, you cannot trust what the living JK claims the target was. I just want to make sure this is out there, so there is no confusion about it. If we're both alive, then of course we can use that information, since our role can only JK with both players consent (while we're both alive that is), but if either of us dies tonight, the other could be lying about who (if anyone) got JKed.
I'll have to agree on this. It is worth trying to save both JK's til tomorrow. I am confident they will be wise enough to know what they must do tonight, because there is a good pro-town strategy they can follow in order to minimize tha chances of a successful night for the scum team. I am not saying anything more, because both players are pretty good and I don't want anyone to see the cards before we bet.

Therefore, my vote and my suggestion is:
vote: a2rudeboy
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Post Post #1304 (isolation #35) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 4:01 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

well, I partly agree. But the first quote is not generally the most likely. Players who can play would have bussed like hell in that situation. But re-reading I had the feeling that Snake was really clueless. Summarizing, this is not an argument I would use to prove CKD is town, but it does not shake my feeling that CKD is in fact town, either.
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Post Post #1306 (isolation #36) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:01 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

by "bussing" I meant something like what you describe the first part of the second option:
LMP wrote: Ok, I know CKD killed DH. Let me accuse him with my results and hope that either A) we lynch him and I end up looking really good...
Anyway, as I said, I do not think this is what happened either.
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Post Post #1312 (isolation #37) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:48 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

Nope, he was not. It was day start and he decided to claim with his result. He prolly got the report at the end of the night - although I cannot be sure of that, because my role gets no reports - so he prolly had no chance to discuss a strategy with his team.

Which makes it even more likely that CKD is in fact town. Why bussing when no votes have been cast?

At this point, I would like to know what both jailers - in particular LMP - think of evilpacman.
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #38) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:43 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

Sometimes a little meta can help... It is funny, a2rudeboy, this is the only game in which you are lurking. In other games you posted regularly, for instance yesterday and the day before... How come?
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Post Post #1321 (isolation #39) » Wed Nov 17, 2010 9:00 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

if a town was voted on potential mylo, he would not just give up, because he would be aware that being lynched would mean game over... a2rudeboy is obvscum. I agree with CKD, I want this day to finish with a2rude hanging, and I see no benefit in keeping stalling.
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Post Post #1323 (isolation #40) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:21 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

I do not know Vezok either, never played with him, as far as I recall
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Post Post #1339 (isolation #41) » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:37 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

evilpacman18 wrote:nvm found it.

I refuse to support this wagon.
Then please contribute to the game. Because you know, it's not like you did much. No wonder all the scumpoints come from your predecessor, tbh. You wake up now that a2rude is at L-1, but you have been quite the lurker, too. Care for posting some content?

As for a2rude: I refuse to believe that a town player would act like a2rude is doing now, when he is at L-1 on potential mylo.
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Post Post #1341 (isolation #42) » Fri Nov 19, 2010 4:50 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

a2rudeboy wrote:CKD- Was that post really necessary? I've already explained there are only two ongoing games I am in where I am still alive. And I don't think you really needed to repeat the 'ass' portion.

Volky- Because I want to know who else, if anyone, people suspect.
sounds like a dying mafia who wants to help his partner figure out what to do at night...
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Post Post #1364 (isolation #43) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:46 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

vote: evilpacman18


this is a hammer
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Post Post #1369 (isolation #44) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 7:59 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

At this point, since I already hammered, and it is the two of us, it does not make any difference, I guess.

I am not mafia. I am a serial killer; my neighbor was a genuine town, but I (Pom) was a SK since the beginning. I sure hope CKD has no surprise-night-actions left.
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Post Post #1371 (isolation #45) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:44 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

no, no, I was a killing SK, bulletproof, but no1 ever shot me at night :-) as long as Z was alive, I (Pom) had to discuss the kills with him, after his death I was free to do what I wanted. I used a no kill on night 4 because I wanted to generate a little confusion... what killer would nk? I am just happy I was able to convince town that there were 5 mafias and not just 4 (which was liklier since I knew I was not town either). That turned out to be the winning strategy after all :-)

still, I wait for the mod's post before I celebrate with an outrageously loud "yay".
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #46) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 11:54 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

formally speaking, the game is not over until the mod posts...
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Post Post #1393 (isolation #47) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 3:16 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

guys, everyone played great... if vollkan were lynched earlier, it would have been harder ro convince everyone that in my neighborhood we were both town. On the other hand, I think that mafia made a big mistake killing the tracker (meaning they knew he was not jailed)... If I were you, I would have killed LMP on night3, and then I would have denied to be a jailer... that could have been a nice wifom...

well, anyway, a third pary win deserves a:

YEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!

@mod: I think that CKD and LMP deserve the title of "best town" ex aequo.
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #48) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:00 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

LynchMePls wrote:
evilpacman18 wrote:The whole game, vollkan was saying a lot but moving very little. It was like his posts arrived nowhere on purpose. That's how I knew he was scum. Too bad I was ignored the whole game. And I think even if vollkan was lynched, the outcome wouldn't have changed. Lew destroyed us.
You were ignored because you were manipulated into admitting that your case was a policy case. If you had responded to that argument with this, you might have had some ground to stand on. But when others said "Vollkan always plays like this" and you then said "Policy Lynch then?" you'd lost any credibility you had.
That is correct: it became impossible to support a vollkan lynch, which I enjoyed very much, because it was vital for me to have a scum kill happening on the last night. And I was convinced of vollkan's scumminess as much as evilpacman18, perhaps even more. I based my whole strategy starting from day 4 on that.
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Post Post #1408 (isolation #49) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:31 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

you find them all in the post by mod, in which he reveals the roles
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Post Post #1410 (isolation #50) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:55 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

yeah that was brilliant :-)
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #51) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 11:15 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

wait a sec, I won as SK against two scummy-awarded players? you should nominate me for the best replacement LoL

kidding, dun worry :-D :-D :-D
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Post Post #1415 (isolation #52) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:29 pm

Post by lewarcher82 »

omg, I was really joking, but thanks, I am overwhelmed :-)
besides, Pom had made an excellent job, so I had a good advantage
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Post Post #1421 (isolation #53) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:14 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

Thanks Pom, yeah, we played together a long time ago, I remember that. I was new, it was one of my first games, I think I was a VT and I was scummy as hell LoL
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Post Post #1423 (isolation #54) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:50 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

oooh, right, it was my very first game, I was not scum, tho :-)
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #55) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:17 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

huh, guys: I nominated Coyote and Sera for the best flavor scummy... I really think this game was wonderfully written. If someone cares for seconding it, I think they deserve. Last post by lew: thanks everyone for the fun and interesting game.
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