Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Llamarble]

Hi all, will catch up tonight.

[Llamarble]

I'm not all the way through, but so far Darla and FF look town and Yos looks probably town (though I know he's good as scum). Whiskey looks scummy, but we'll see how things appear once I'm fully caught up. Also I have no idea who I'm voting.

Unvote

[Llamarble]

Added Fishy, DLG(maybe) and Broken to my townpile and Nikanor, Bobsnox, and Bidderskins to my scumpile. Still rereading ISOs and stuff, but I don't like the DBE wagon. I can see how Ender attracted some votes; he doesn't really make sense to me, especially the lynch me so Darla can die next stuff without a particular read on Darla. I'll just have to redeem this slot by CATCHING ALL THE SCUMS MWAHAHA!

[Llamarble]

Huh, maybe I was totally wrong on my first pass and Darla is actually scum. I don't see much attempt to figure out who the scum are coming from her; she seems to care more about convincing others not to vote her. On meta perusal I can see her being scum, but it's not very clear. How soon is the deadline? I need to read more.

[Llamarble]

Vote: Bub Bidderskins

He is tunneling/voteparked on DBE but doesn't like the other members of the wagon on her.
He has lined up Bobsnox or Whiskey lynches for D2 in the event of a Darlatownflip.
I'm not really impressed by his case on DBE.
Yosarian is also kind of scummy looking.

Then again Whisky is also pretty bad.
Why does everyone in this town have a lynch lined up for after Darla/Ender???

[Llamarble]

Yeah I really don't like Bub's "I don't care if Darla is scum let's lynch her for information so we can lynch Snox or Whiskey next" post.

Im actually starting to believe i got it wrong about ender.

I still think hes a newbie but Darla has used this to there scum advantage. FOS ender for after we lynched Darla.

So he thinks Darla is using the newbcard to defend Ender? Lining up a lynch for after a scumflip isn't as big a deal as lining one up for after a townflip, but this guy's scumhunting is not impressive. I don't see a lie though (please explain) and he looks like a pretty easy mislynch if town.

Yosarian is scummy because he's also preparing for a Darla townflip via calling the Darlawagon scumdriven and targeting the same members of it as Bub. Whisky, Snox, and Ender are all appetizing/convenient scumtargets if town and they make up his scumlist.

I'm not sure what scumteam sizes make sense with 14 players. 4v10 with a lot of town power? 3v3v8? It's kind of a strange number of players.

[Llamarble]

@FF: Wow, if that's the abbreviated version...
Concision is pro-town.

When I say I'm going to redeem the slot by finding scum, that doesn't mean "Find me town now" it means "find me town after I help us lynch scum."

My opinions are changing rapidly as I review the available information because I just joined and have only read through fully once. Calling me scum because I say my read isn't solid due to my not having read the whole thread is ridiculous.

When I say players look like appetizing scumtargets it means they look like they would be easy to push a lynch on irrespective of alignment.

Poker now, more reading later.

[Llamarble]

And so the scums reveal their growing fear by piling on... Muahahaha.

Darla was initially a town read because I don't see why Darlascum reveals townmeta for Ender the Easy Mislynch.
And her posts simply felt townie.
On review I didn't see enough scumhunting and saw a lot of self defense, though that may be simply due to having a wagon on her taking up her scumhunting time. Then I looked at her meta and found it somewhat ambiguous.
At this point I am leaning town on her again, especially since Bub Bidderskins is increasingly obvscum.
Elaboration on that last point next post.

[Llamarble]

@FF: I don't think making long posts is scummy. I think it is just less helpful. Being concise enables you to get across your ideas clearly.

Why I am convinced of Bidderscum:

Complete lack of towntells. I see nothing in his posting that looks difficult to believe from scum.

Tunneling / vote parking on Darla with a weak case.
The case he makes against Darla is that she was initially hesitant with voting and then starts moving her vote around. I see no reason for scum to be unwilling to have their vote on people, especially so far from lynchtime. This is totally inadequate to lynch somebody on, even D1. Those Darlactions read to me as townie not sure of reads due to lack of information so far, changing reads as more information became available.

I'll do the rest post by scummy post.

I really find whisky to be kind of strange. He has a... unique way of expressing himself that can be dificult to understand. Having said that, his vote on DBE looks really bad. Seriously, you vote for somebody because they say their on the phone? That's a seriously crappy reason to get on the biggest bandwagon.

Painting the bandwagon he supposedly believes is on scum as driven by opportunistic scum.

Nikanor is a VI plain and simple. A scum could not possibly be stupid enough to do what he did.

I'll post some more tomorrow, as my computer's acting up right now. Does that make me scummy Whisky?

Final fires seems to be a lot more pro-town now. I really like his post #130, and agree with him about both ender being suspicious and about whiskey being suspicious.

I'm kind of confused about the darla wagon here; she hasn't really done anything yet that looks suspicious to me. Can someone who's on the wagon explain why you're voting for her again?

I started the wagon, and I found her scummy for be non-commitant. She sort of buzzed two mini-wagons without voting on them. I also agree with you that Final Fires is looking like town. His honesty in some of his posts is what really makes me say that he's town.

Darla and Final Fires are scumbuddies. Calling it.

Unvote

Vote: Darla

Vote explanation fail. Please remedy. Do you mind providing any evidence for your claim? Or are you just calling shotgun on a fat, juicy wagon?

If we lynch DBE and she flips town, bobsnox and whisky should be suspects number one and two.

OMG LINING UP LYNCHES MUCH?

So far my biggest suspect is Bobsnox, who on review of most of his posts/iso as been a total sheep and hostile when his actions are questioned. This screams scum to me and one that can easilly slip under the radar with the Fires/Ender blunders and me, apparently. Looking back over it he gives me the most uneasy vibes of anyone, and if you look at his ISO you'll see why. I also have an uneasy read on Whiskey but he's actually scum hunting which is much more beneficial to town than what Bob has been doing.

No content - no original thought - hostility when questioned - expecting everyone to just accept his actions or shut up.

vote Bobsnox

I agree that bob looks really scummy if you assume that you are town. Since I do not hold that assumption, I do not feel that bobsnox is very scummy. However, if it so happens that you are town, then bob is extremely scummy. I've already said that. I feel bad repeating myself.

Continuing to build cases against people he supposedly thinks are helping him lynch scum.

Darla, this is the 3rd time you've changed your vote since page 4. Comparing this to the start, where you played very cautiously, and were unwilling to even place a (serious) vote, you're play style really seems to be changing. You spent a lot of time ISO'ing Striker and Whiskey, and then out of nowhere you vote Bob? I understand that you said you were going to do more ISO's, but still, that seems really strange to me.

My thoughts exactly.

Both of which are pretty much exactly what DLG said. His posting style seems to take a much more aggressive tone once Darla pointed suspicion towards striker and whiskey (potential chainsaw defense? It wasn't that dramatic, but there definitely was a slight change in the attitude of his posts). He is someone we should keep an eye on, but right now I kind of think it's more just his meta than anything else.

I didn't notice that, *goes back to check out bobsnox*.

That leaves only one thing left to do, and I apologize in advance for this out of game outburst, but I just have to do it...

GO PACKERS!!!

My vote will stay on DarlaBlueEyes. I think that she is the most probable scum, and I have already demonstrated why. However there is another reason to lynch her, and that is the fact that we will gain the most knowledge based on her lynch.

I'MMA DISTANCE MYSELF FROM A DARLA TOWNFLIP SOMEMORE.

If she turns out to be town, then that seriously implicates both whisky (who has recently disappeared) and bobsnox. If we lynch bob and he's town, then that does not strongly implicate Darla.

Ender has slipped off the radar as of late, and he needs to get back into the game.

@Ender: At this point who do you think is more likely scum: Darla or bobsnox?

Vote: Bub Bidderskins

He is tunneling/voteparked on DBE but doesn't like the other members of the wagon on her.
He has lined up Bobsnox or Whiskey lynches for D2 in the event of a Darlatownflip.
I'm not really impressed by his case on DBE.
Yosarian is also kind of scummy looking.

Then again Whisky is also pretty bad.
Why does everyone in this town have a lynch lined up for after Darla/Ender???

Okay, so you said you're not impressed with the case on Darla.

Way to not respond to my case on you

But you also said:

Huh, maybe I was totally wrong on my first pass and Darla is actually scum. I don't see much attempt to figure out who the scum are coming from her; she seems to care more about convincing others not to vote her. On meta perusal I can see her being scum, but it's not very clear. How soon is the deadline? I need to read more.

So you don't like my case on Darla, but you think she's scum?

As I've said, I replaced into this game a couple of days ago and am still figuring it out. I never thought your case against Darla was good, but I thought she might be scum for lack of scumhunting effort. At this point she looks town and you look like scum.

Seriously, the whole purpose of this post was to deflect attention away from the Darla wagon. Before Llamarble replaced in, I had the suspision of a Darla/ender team. That's why I asked ender about the DBE wagon, to see his response. Unfortunatly I never got one from ender, but I got a contradiction from his replacement, which all but confirms my theory.

FoS: Llamarble

After some thought, I'm going to

unvote; vote: Llamarble

The Darla wagon seems to have fizzled out, and Llamarble's contradictions are perhaps even worse than ender's questionable play. As for more whisky, I don't know. I want to hear his response to some of the questions directed at him, though.

OSHI HE CAUGHT ME, LYNCH HIM FAST GUYZ! THE WAGON I WAS PUSHING THAT STILL HAS A NUMBER OF VOTES ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE, BUT I DON'T ACTUALLY CARE ABOUT LYNCHING SCUM SO WHATEV! I'MMA FENCESIT ON MOREWHISKY SOME MORE EVEN THOUGH HE'S CONTINUING TO HELP VOTE PEOPLE I SUPPOSEDLY THINK ARE SCUM

[Llamarble]

@FF: Wow, if that's the abbreviated version...
Concision is pro-town.

When I say I'm going to redeem the slot by finding scum, that doesn't mean "Find me town now" it means "find me town after I help us lynch scum."

My opinions are changing rapidly as I review the available information because I just joined and have only read through fully once. Calling me scum because I say my read isn't solid due to my not having read the whole thread is ridiculous.

All my posts have been long, but earlier you said you thought I was town. If it's the length of post that bothers you, you would've accused me of being anti-town straight away. Saying it now just looks like an OMGUS.

I understand what you said, but it's still a somewhat common tell. If it had only been that post I would've mentioned it, but not found it that suspicious. That in conjunction with the ender (and you now)/whisky buddy system, and all the other points brought up is what prompted my vote.

One thing that is going on in this town is that your better of not posting, I say that as this is what Darla is doing now(even if these reasons are very genuine) and its working! Im not scum im town, ive told you who the main cuprits are Darla and the new llamarble.

And llamrble i do like your posts very nicely done.

Earlier you claimed you never thought of darla/ender being scum together. Now you're claiming you told us that darla and llamarble were "the main culprits"? Lie #2. You even said ender was newbtown, not scummy!

I am happy with either a llama lynch or a whisky lynch. I thought about it for a little, and I think that they're both scum. However, if we lynched whisky the only thig we learn is to lynch llama next. If we lynch llama, we can look back at how people reacted to the ender bandwagon. (And of course lynch whisky tommorow

WHY ARE YOU PEOPLE TRYING TO DECIDE TOMORROW'S LYNCH TODAY... ALSO DID YOU JUST REVEAL KNOWLEDGE OF MY/WHISKY'S BEING TOWN? NOW I HAVE TO REREAD YOU.

).

Unvote

Vote: Llama

One more to hammer.

[Llamarble]

@DLG: WHY WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THE LYNCH OF ANY OTHER PLAYER THAN ONE YOU CAUGHT LYING? YOUR PLAY IS CEASING TO MAKE SENSE FROM A TOWN PERSPECTIVE. AND WE HAVE A WEEK LEFT AND I HAVE PLENTY LEFT TO SAY, SO NOBODY HAMMER ME WITHOUT AT LEAST GIVING ME TIME TO TELL YOU WHO ALL THE SCUM ARE.

ALSO RESPOND TO MY CASE ON BIDDERSKINS; IT'S EASILY THE STRONGEST PRESENTED AGAINST ANYONE SO WHY ARE YOU IGNORING IT?

[Llamarble]

Huh, I still don't see where Morewhisky is contradiction-lying (please make this clear somebody who thinks he is).
But he has done absolutely pitiful scumhunting, and is bandwagoning like a champ. So he's a likely Bidderbuddy.
That would make sense with Bidderscum's play; Lynch town today, FOS a buddy and a townie for tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

Also somebody please tell me what the case against me is; All I see is that people don't like my reads changing as I think more about the thread. If you could summarize the case against Ender so I can attempt to explain his play as well that would also be useful. Right now people seem to pretty much be bandwagoning me for no reason.

[Llamarble]

Meh, FF is still town I guess.
Also irritation is different from desperation.

[Llamarble]

Mostly bidderskins. I still need to ISO brokenscraps and various other people.

[Llamarble]

Okay Flinter (might be lurkerscum) and Broken and Nikanor and DLG aren't really readable today. I'll sort them out tomorrow. Fishy & Yos look like scum if Bub is, but that's getting ahead of myself.
And I get the morewhisky contradiction now, but I think he's actually just being sarcastic when he compliments Bob on his 'original' idea. Whisky is still scummy though.
At this point I'm confident Bidderskins is the best lynch for today.

Bub is scummy because he intentionally took it upon himself to criticize my play as scummy/poor while simultaneously acknowledging that he thinks I'm town. And all this while we're on the same wagon, trying to get Darla lynched.

Okay this Bobsnox guy looks town.

[Llamarble]

My reads are getting settled in at this point, so I'll summarize with a list:
Town:
Llama
Jahudo
Bobsnox
Darla
FF

Null:
Broken
DLG
CMAR
Flinter

Somewhat scummy:
Yos
Fishy
Nikanor

Scummy:
Whisky

Scum:
Bidderskins

I'm going to go back and look for the case against Ender now and try to deal with it.
I want responses (Preferably votes in agreement) to my case against Bidderskins.

[Llamarble]

IF YOU BELIEVE A PLAYER IS CAUGHT LYING, ANY OTHER LYNCH IS UNACCEPTABLE.
That said I don't think Whisky's supposed contradiction was anything other than sarcasm even if he's scum.

We have more time and as I have only had a couple of days to get caught up I find quicklynching me to be the move of scared scum. Yosarian was talking about wagon growth speeds; this one on me has been TURBOSPEEDY as soon as I pointed out bidderskins as scum. DLG has climbed several places on the scumminess ranking for trying to make this lynch happen ASAP, trying to gloss over the fact that I have caught Bidderscum, and for claiming to believe somebody is lying but not seeking to force through their lynch (maybe cause you're buddies?).

I have already explained that my reads were evolving as I read more. It's not as if ANYTHING AT ALL happened between me stating a read and updating it that would provide a scummotive to flipflop.

OMGUS isn't a scumtell. If somebody voting me is scummy, I say so. If they're not, I don't. I'm not going to avoid attacking someone because they're attacking a town player (me); that makes no sense.

Bidderskins is scum because he spent more time attacking the wagon he was voteparked on with a weak case as scummy than pushing that wagon. What does this have to do with knowing my townflip?

Ignoring a case against someone because you have a townread on them is ridiculous. If you're town, you should be reading other players' cases to try and help you figure out who the scum are. Simply dismissing my case against Bidderskins as "not good enough" is garbage. Do you want me to elaborate further on why trying to lynch somebody for bad reasons and then having other players lined up for the next lynch who he thinks are helping him lynch scum is scummy?

I'm shouting that we should lynch Bidderskins because I am confident I have caught scum and I have about a week to convince a whole town whom I just met and don't particularly trust me yet.

[Llamarble]

I'll claim when I get reads on Bidderskins with explanations from around half the town or when we have 4 days left. There's no pro-town reason for me to claim right now with so much time left.

[Llamarble]

Yosarian is scummy because he's also preparing for a Darla townflip via calling the Darlawagon scumdriven and targeting the same members of it as Bub.

And you're claiming that the wagon was scum founded and tunneling that founder, what is your point here?

His behavior fits with an apparent "lynch Darla then Snox/Whisky" plan shared by a Yosarian/Bub scumteam. Yos wasn't on the Darla wagon but wasn't really making a significant effort to derail it either and was voting Ender instead of one of the wagonmembers despite calling the wagon scum driven. Since this is partially associative, I'm not seeking to lynch Yos today.

Whisky, Snox, and Ender are all appetizing/convenient scumtargets if town and they make up his scumlist.

I know you're capable of better than this HORRID, HORRIBLE reasoning that makes me cry. People are preparing for a townflip? Why would going after scummy players be scummy unless you had the flips that told you those players were town?

Some players are easier to lynch than others irrespective of alignment because they are abrasive or careless. If a player puts a large number of them into their suspect pool it is more likely they want to push mislynches. How is this reasoning bad? I am also certain Ender is a mislynch and have a townread on Snoxie, though at this point Whiskey looks pretty scummy. Going afters player who are actually scummy is fine; scum are incentivized to go after players who will make attackable mistakes regardless of their alignment.

So he thinks Darla is using the newbcard to defend Ender? Lining up a lynch for after a scumflip isn't as big a deal as lining one up for after a townflip, but this guy's scumhunting is not impressive. I don't see a lie though (please explain) and he looks like a pretty easy mislynch if town.

Just how much setup information do you have?

With the whole "Bud is scum because he is supporting a wagon he thinks is scum driven" yes this might be worth looking at after today but nobody should be overly expected to dismiss an individual tell for an associative tell with zero flips and zero set-up info regarding multiple scum groups etc. that you'd make these connections now is just revealing more and more how much insider info you have.

Wait what? SUPPORTING A WAGON YOU THINK IS SCUMDRIVEN, VOTEPARKING WITH A BAD CASE, AND LINING UP LYNCHES FOR AFTER YOUR TARGET FLIPS TOWN ARE INDIVIDUAL SCUMTELLS. My entire case on Bub is based on individual tells. What is this multiple scumgroups stuff? I am not trying to deal with multi-scum shenanigans because that causes all kinds of weird stuff with scum legitimately hunting for the other faction (without insincere scumhunting what are we supposed to look for...) but trying not to draw NKs.

When I say players look like appetizing scumtargets it means they look like they would be easy to push a lynch on irrespective of alignment.

No it doesn't, why would a player who was scum look like an appetizing target to scum? Could be a unfortunately needed bussing target, but your argument depends on them being town which with zero flips is a garbage case.

I already explained this. Obviously scum don't want to lynch their buddies, but seeing a lot of players who would be easy to lynch on someone's scumlist suggests they care more about lynches being easy to push through than about them actually being on scum.

Why I am convinced of Bidderscum:

Complete lack of towntells. I see nothing in his posting that looks difficult to believe from scum.

You'd need to have town tells from an enormous number of players for this to be valid at this stage, which you don't (I'm counting 10 players you don't think are town right now).

Most players have at least done something that looks kind of weird under the assumption that player is scum. Scum of course normally do this intentionally, but Bub apparently hasn't bothered to this game.

Tunneling / vote parking on Darla with a weak case.

Can I ask why your reasons for finding DBE suspicious were so much better than everyone else's? And why you've only dropped her for an associative tell when there are zero flips (I keep repeating this, but you keep relying on scum knowledge)?

PLEASE, for the love of all that is good in mafia do not place your comments inside other people's quotes, it is annoying to read and even more annoying to quote.

Okay, not inside your quote anymore. I specifically disliked BubB's logic, which discussed DBE's hesitancy with her vote and moving around, both of which seemed perfectly reasonable behaviors from town. There is a HUGE difference between tunneling somebody all day until a near lynch with weak reasoning and simply expressing suspicion. My reasoning was based on a general lack of scumhunting, which is a more reliable tell since the primary difference between town and scum is that the town is actually looking for scum, but I ended up deciding she had given off enough sincerity/towntells and the wagon on her was scummy enough that Bub is a vastly better lynch. AND WHY DO YOU KEEP SAYING I WANT TO LYNCH BUB DUE TO ASSOCIATIVE TELLS?? THAT IS SIMPLY FALSE.

Fishy & Yos look like scum if Bub is, but that's getting ahead of myself.

Oh yeah, saying you're getting ahead of yourself totally dissolves the fact that your already privately setting up lynches while publicly attacking others for doing the same.

As I've said, trying to figure out who a successful lynch of scum would implicate is not a scumtell because it does not play to the scumgoal of achieving multiple mislynches in a row. Obviously a Bubtownflip would force me to rethink things totally. Bub wants to lynch somebody, and then had already said who he wanted to lynch next if she flipped town. This does play to the scumgoal of getting mislynches in a row.

OMGUS isn't a scumtell. If somebody voting me is scummy, I say so. If they're not, I don't. I'm not going to avoid attacking someone because they're attacking a town player (me); that makes no sense.

So scum and town can both vote the same player?! And others can't believe this why?

Scum and town can certainly vote the same player... I have no idea what you're saying here.

[Llamarble]

It's not as if ANYTHING AT ALL happened between me stating a read and updating it that would provide a scummotive to flipflop.

Still rereading ISOs and stuff, but I don't like the DBE wagon.

Very next post.

Huh, maybe I was totally wrong on my first pass and Darla is actually scum. I don't see much attempt to figure out who the scum are coming from her; she seems to care more about convincing others not to vote her. On meta perusal I can see her being scum, but it's not very clear. How soon is the deadline? I need to read more.

What happened, the only thing that happened, in between these two was a vote-count which showed DarlaBlueEyes with 6 votes. Scum motive to flip-flop? Blend into the crowd. Don't stand out. Stay off the radar.

I'm going to go back and look for the case against Ender now and try to deal with it.

Except, you already knew what the basis of the case was.

I can see how Ender attracted some votes; he doesn't really make sense to me, especially the lynch me so Darla can die next stuff without a particular read on Darla. I'll just have to redeem this slot by CATCHING ALL THE SCUMS MWAHAHA!

This was just a buy some more time strategy.

Okay this Bobsnox guy looks town.

Based on the fact that he posted an objection to Bub Bidderskins play before you subsumed it as part of your "best case against anyone" in the game so far?

Ignoring a case against someone because you have a townread on them is ridiculous.

I didn't ignore it. I read it and wasn't impressed.

We have more time and as I have only had a couple of days to get caught up I find quicklynching me to be the move of scared scum.

I find begging to stall town momentum the move of a player who replaced into a scum slot that was played horribly by the first occupant.

ALSO RESPOND TO MY CASE ON BIDDERSKINS

It isn't even really yours, though.

The way BB is already blaming other people on his wagon makes me feel he knows it's a mislynch (157 and 200) and is already trying to shift the blame.

Add to this bobsnox's critique of Bub Bidderskins and we have

your

case in a nut-shell.

Lawl @ DLG "SOMEBODY QUICKHAMMER PLEASEPLEASEPLEASE BEFORE HE FINDS US ALL SO I CAN LYNCH YOU REAL EASY TOMORROW HEHEHE"
I was asked about the Darlawagon as soon as I showed up, so I was fully aware of it during both of those posts. Hence my statement that NOTHING happened between those two posts.
I've produced more content in 3 days than most players in this entire game. Why do you want to lynch me again?
I want the specifics of the Ender case so I can go back and deal with it more precisely. It seems to me that Ender believed other players were convinced Darla was scum if he wasn't and so was willing to die to get her lynched if she was scum (Obviously this doesn't make sense but townies are confused sometimes). He apparently didn't vote her because he didn't understand why other players seemed to be convinced of this. He was a confused townie.

I pointed out that Ender did strange stuff and stated my intention to redeem the slot by good scumhunting.

Because people who think the same way I do usually have the same perspective on the game. This is by far the most reliable town-tell I know of.

Explain what's unconvincing. Is it the part where BB voteparks with a weak case, or the part where he posts more of a case against the people who are on the wagon he's pushing than against the wagonee and explicitly states that they're targets for tomorrow after a DBEtownflip? Or is it the part where he has failed to give off towntells, or has switched wagons off one he was pushing most of the game for the pathetic reason "meh my Darlawagon only has 4 votes so I'd rather lynch this guy cause he's caught me?" HOW WAS THAT WAGON "NOT GOING ANYWHERE?" THAT IS A GARBAGE EXCUSE. Or where he says "let's lynch Darla for information" so he can justify his staying on the wagon after her townflip by saying "Oh it was just for the info?" Or where he ignores my case against him and instead tries to get me quicklynched? I haven't even destroyed his most recent post yet, but basically he now is attacking me for using capslock and based on a misrepresentation of my stance on Darla. And he compares me wanting to lynch him D1 with DLG wanting me quickhammered with substantial time remaining before the deadline. Oh well I'll get to that next.

I want time so I can scumhunt, as I've already stated. HOW ON EARTH CAN YOU POSSIBLY THINK NOT WANTING TO BE QUICKLYNCHED IS A SCUMTELL????

And while Fishy and Bob did indeed notice that scumtell from Bub and deserve credit, and that is a central reason Bub is obvscum, my case goes substantially beyond that.

By the way if anyone is curious how my Darlaread evolved, I found her town on first readthrough, somewhat scummy on second readthrough and then by the time of my next post on had put her back in the town column where she has stayed. This was all in my first 2 days in the game.

[Llamarble]

Did you even read my case against BB?

[Llamarble]

I thought maybe darla and llamarble are scum buddies, but ive now gone off that idea, im not gona join the Bw on llamarble.

Just in his last post:

The reason i complimented Llamarble on his posts is because i do believe ender and Darla are on the same side,scum. So llamarble had/has an uphill struggle taking over from ender. And hes doing a nice job of it.

Just a few posts ago you felt confident ender and darla were scum. You even claimed you pointed out that they were the "main culprits" to us! Why the sudden change of heart?

One thing that is going on in this town is that your better of not posting, I say that as this is what Darla is doing now(even if these reasons are very genuine) and its working! Im not scum im town,

ive told you who the main cuprits are Darla and the new llamarble.

And llama, a lot of your points against bub were that he tunneled in the darla wagon. But with that being said, at the time people were mostly torn between two votes: Ender and Darla. If you're assuming that he's evil, then why was he spending so much time making sure ender didn't get lynched? Wouldn't assuming bub is evil allow us to assume that he was just protecting a fellow scum buddy?

Bub is one of those people who I feel like I won't have a solid read on until after the first lynch. However if we were to assume that Bub was lynched and did flip scum, then you would be one of my top target for a day two lynch. Maybe the reason you feel so confident that he's scum is because you actually do know? It seems kind of like a bus attempt, because it was so out of nowhere. No one had been excessively suspicious of him before; the fact that you pick up on things that nobody else does suggests you know more than us.

Oh yeah Bub has been trying real hard not to get me lynched... Scum don't care which townie they lynch. D1 they want to be thought of as trying to scumhunt and they want to get a townie lynched. Bub never said anything like "we shouldn't lynch Ender because stuff." Bubscum has been fine with either lynch all along. And you saying I'm probably scum if Bub flips scum is RIDICULOUS. I am voting him because I see his play as scummy, and as has been pointed out I was not even the first to notice his scummy behavior.

[Llamarble]

I find quicklynching me to be the move of scared scum.

Oh really? I find writing in all caps to be the move of scared scum. Case in point.

@DLG: WHY WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THE LYNCH OF ANY OTHER PLAYER THAN ONE YOU CAUGHT LYING? YOUR PLAY IS CEASING TO MAKE SENSE FROM A TOWN PERSPECTIVE. AND WE HAVE A WEEK LEFT AND I HAVE PLENTY LEFT TO SAY, SO NOBODY HAMMER ME WITHOUT AT LEAST GIVING ME TIME TO TELL YOU WHO ALL THE SCUM ARE.

ALSO RESPOND TO MY CASE ON BIDDERSKINS; IT'S EASILY THE STRONGEST PRESENTED AGAINST ANYONE SO WHY ARE YOU IGNORING IT?

If you have to write in all caps in order for people to pay attention to your substance, then that must mean you don't have much substance. Oh, and we can see how your case on me is the strongest of anybody with all the people jumping on my bandwagon. [/sarcasm]

Do you know why it is weak? Because it is birthed from desperate scum and built on a contradiction. You say that you don't like my case on DBE, then you say that you find Darla to be scummy. Then you vote for me and call me the scummiest player around. You think that Darla is scummy and yet you think that the main pusher of the Darla wagon [me] is scum. Your default stance on Darla is that she is town, and yet when you look back at her posts, you realize that she's been posting scummy. So you panic because she's your partner and you chainsaw me.

Also...

We have more time and as I have only had a couple of days to get caught up I find quicklynching me to be the move of scared scum. Yosarian was talking about wagon growth speeds; this one on me has been TURBOSPEEDY as soon as I pointed out bidderskins as scum.

and yet in the same post...

I'm shouting that we should lynch Bidderskins because I am confident I have caught scum and I have about a week to convince a whole town whom I just met and don't particularly trust me yet.

Look who's wanting a speedlynch now. And keep in mind that your player slot has been scummy from very early on. I'm not sure if he ever got a real proper wagon on him, but there have been people voting for him for pretty much the entire day. The reason for the speedy wagon is that your play has been especially scummy lately.

Okay, not inside your quote anymore. I specifically disliked BubB's logic, which discussed DBE's hesitancy with her vote and moving around, both of which seemed perfectly reasonable behaviors from town. There is a HUGE difference between tunneling somebody all day until a near lynch with weak reasoning and simply expressing suspicion. My reasoning was based on a general lack of scumhunting, which is a more reliable tell since the primary difference between town and scum is that the town is actually looking for scum, but I ended up deciding she had given off enough sincerity/towntells and the wagon on her was scummy enough that Bub is a vastly better lynch.

Wait, what? So now you think DBE is town? But didn't you say this:

Huh, maybe I was totally wrong on my first pass and Darla is actually scum. I don't see much attempt to figure out who the scum are coming from her; she seems to care more about convincing others not to vote her.

What's with the rapid swings man?

Caps lock is not a scumtell. Have a look at some games with Fate in them.
"PEOPLE AREN'T VOTING ME SO THE CASE MUST BE WEAK HERPADERPA" IS HORRIBLE REASONING. CLEARLY THE EARTH IS 4000 YEARS OLD.
I don't think DBE is scum. On my second readthrough I found her lack of content scummy-ambiguous, then read some more the next afternoon and decided she was still town and Bub was scum.
QUICKHAMMERING ME IS NOT THE SAME THING AS LYNCHING YOU SOMETIME BEFORE THE DEADLINE YOU MISREPPING SCUM.

[Llamarble]

Lawl @ DLG "SOMEBODY QUICKHAMMER PLEASEPLEASEPLEASE BEFORE HE FINDS US ALL SO I CAN LYNCH YOU REAL EASY TOMORROW HEHEHE"

Everyone recognizes that

you

have only been in the game a couple of days. Your slot, however, has been here all along. Quit trying to blur the line. Plenty of time has passed for reads to be solid enough for a lynch. No one is asking for a quickhammer play. As you, yourself pointed out

I've produced more content in 3 days than most players in this entire game. Why do you want to lynch me again?

Your reliance on an invalid defense of players trying to quickhammer is scummy. The contradiction between you posting a significant amount of content and claiming players are trying to quickhammer you is scummy. I want to lynch you because you and your slot look scummy enough to justify doing it.

Yes, my slot has been in the game a long time. I however have demanded enough time to read the thread and discuss other players, which you have tried to prevent by hammering within the next day despite the better part of a week being left. There is no protown motivation of any kind for that. This post is a TERRIBLE justification for lynching. I am not "relying on complaining about quickhammers as a defense." I am criticizing the idea because it is bad play. I am defending myself by posting good content and being pro-town and explaining actions that have confused other players.

@CMAR: please read and comment on my case on Bub. I intend to claim only after a good number of responses to it or on Tuesday, whichever comes first. That will still leave 4 days for post-claim discussion. RUSHING THE END OF THE DAY IS PRO-SCUM. Various players haven't even posted a stance on my wagon as it currently stands. Why do you want to let them get away with lurking and producing minimal content?

Posts 0, 1, and 2 of my ISO are before/during my first readthrough. During that readthrough I felt Darla looked town and Bub looked scum. In post 3 I have been doing my second readthrough and am having doubts. In my post 4 I have more thoroughly read Bidderskins and decided he is almost certainly scum. There is no contradiction here; I read through, put down my reads, read through again and had some doubts, and then after doing some more ISOing decided Bub was obvscum. A contradiction would be holding multiple conflicting viewpoints simultaneously, which I have not.

WHY DO YOU PEOPLE NOT UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF HAVING AN INITIAL READ AND UPDATING IT AFTER DOING MORE READING???

BB's latest post is more obvious strongarming garbage. He wants to lynch me because I am using caps, that I have said I am producing content, and because I updated my reads as I read more. The first two of those are obviously null and the third one is a town tell (scum prefer to read all the way through before posting since being honest and thinking aloud might get them or a buddy lynched). HE DOES NOT CARE ABOUT LYNCHING SCUM BECAUSE HE IS SCUM. HIS REASONING FOR HIS BOTH HIS DBE VOTE AND NOW HIS VOTE FOR ME IS TERRIBLE.

Bub is OBVIOUS STRONGARMING SCUM. LOOK AT TH

[Llamarble]

Heh, I started that last paragraph twice while I was in the middle of other paragraphs after getting fired up by Bub's scumtasticism. This town is in bad shape; Only having 2 legitimate D1 wagons to think about tomorrow leaves us with way less information than normal. Bub continues to fail to actually respond to the case against him; This is because my logic against him relies on FACTUALLY TRUE statements unlike his misrepresented garbage against me trying to paint rethinking my reads as contradicting myself. I think I'll summarize my case against Bub concisely and then claim after a couple responses. If you all lynch me today you had better sheep my town corpse tomorrow to a bublynch.

[Llamarble]

@FF:
Scum have a STRONG disincentive to lynch their scumbuddies since their buddies dying is what makes them lose the game. Thus if I drive a Bublynch from no votes to completion and he flips scum I will have demonstrated my towniness more thoroughly than any other player and will probably get killed tonight. Lining up lynches is scummy because scum want to execute a sequence of mislynches, and it is convenient for them to have their next target all prepared for the next day. It also often causes a vig to shoot their target at night instead of hitting scum. Saying you want to lynch somebody for information is distancing from a lynch because it prepares excuse-making in advance for after that player flips town. Town don't care about preparing excuses; we just want to lynch whoever is scummiest. And tunneling with a weak case is a scumtell because a player who is sincerely scumhunting will vote along with the best cases instead of sticking to a lynch that they do not have a good reason to stick to.

[Llamarble]

@Bob: Much of my scumhunting time is being spent answering cases, but forcing people to fully state their reasons for voting me will be useful for analysis tomorrow whether or not I'm lynched. Also I think I've found scum at this point and am spending a lot of my time explaining why BB is scum. Who's listing you as scum with people you think are scum? I agree that that is silly (hence my statement that FF's BB/Llama are buddies stuff is ridiculous). Also does all the Ender/Darla interaction really look scumonscum to people and why???

Fishy & Broken:
You're the two I played games with before. In my game with Broken I was killed N1 after pointing out two of the scums and catching a fakeclaiming mason (who happened to be a VT unfortunately). Fishy I was scumbuddies with in a pretty dominating win. So both of you can respect that I'm reasonably good at this game and might be worth keeping around? I find it very frustrating being lynched D1 when I feel I can contribute a lot in this town. At least read my updated case on Bidderskins that I'm going to post tonight.

[Llamarble]

Meh, I've already said my points against Bub in posts 8 and 20 of my ISO (and scattered other places but the main stuff is there.) It's not like there are going to be oodles of new things to dig up; I already read him pretty thoroughly. So basically just go read those. Repeating myself won't really be useful. Hopefully I've raised enough hackles and generated enough content to help you guys dig yourselves out of this situation tomorrow.

ROLECLAIM: VANILLA TOWNIE

Summary of response to case against me:
Ender was a confused townie who apparently thought his townflip would somehow prove Darla was scum despite the fact that she wasn't even really attacking him. And he didn't vote her despite this belief because he apparently didn't even understand why he held it himself. This behavior makes absolutely no sense from either alignment, but here it happens to have come from a townie.

My reads changed around early after my replacement because I was getting new ideas about who the scum were during my first couple rereads. Things became coherent and settled out shortly thereafter.

There's still plenty of time till deadline though so if anyone has questions etc. I'll answer.

@Broken: lynching productive scumhunters D1 tends to reduce town's chances of winning (though obviously lynching scum is paramount). I find you accusing me of spamming the thread offensive, but maybe you're just playing to a scum wincondition.

[Llamarble]

By the way it'd be anti-town if somebody hammered before Flinter, Yosarian, DBE, and Nikanor weigh in. We don't want scum lurking to victory without having to even talk about the day's lynch. There's plenty of time before the deadline for prods to force all of them to post.

[Llamarble]

I'm tired tonight, but I'll be around tomorrow.
I don't really care about potential multiteams D1. If the scum are scumhunting sincerely (for another faction) then we don't really have anything to go on anyway except associative tells among small groups.

I'm not sure why Broken is still voting me. Please address viewtopic.php?p=2760740#p2760740

So far my biggest suspect is Bobsnox, who on review of most of his posts/iso as been a total sheep and hostile when his actions are questioned. This screams scum to me and one that can easilly slip under the radar with the Fires/Ender blunders and me, apparently. Looking back over it he gives me the most uneasy vibes of anyone, and if you look at his ISO you'll see why. I also have an uneasy read on Whiskey but he's actually scum hunting which is much more beneficial to town than what Bob has been doing.

No content - no original thought - hostility when questioned - expecting everyone to just accept his actions or shut up.

vote Bobsnox

I agree that bob looks really scummy if you assume that you are town. Since I do not hold that assumption, I do not feel that bobsnox is very scummy. However, if it so happens that you are town, then bob is extremely scummy. I've already said that. I feel bad repeating myself.

Darla, this is the 3rd time you've changed your vote since page 4. Comparing this to the start, where you played very cautiously, and were unwilling to even place a (serious) vote, you're play style really seems to be changing. You spent a lot of time ISO'ing Striker and Whiskey, and then out of nowhere you vote Bob? I understand that you said you were going to do more ISO's, but still, that seems really strange to me.

My thoughts exactly.
[/b]

I missed how awful this was before. HE THINKS HIS TOP SCUMREAD IS DOING GOOD SCUMHUNTING. AND HE THINKS HER CHANGING HER VOTE TO THE PERSON SHE FINDS SUSPICIOUS BECAUSE OF THIS SCUMHUNTING IS A SCUMMY MOVE. THIS IS _NOT_ TOWN LOGIC.


Reply to Bub's most recent post:
1. As I've said, most players do at least _something_ that feels weird under the assumption that they're scum.
2. Voting who you think is scum is fine. Tunneling/voteparking with a weak case isn't since it suggests you're not actively looking around for scum.
3. Cautiousness is not a strong enough scumtell to justify your behavior toward the DBE wagon. I read her as town trying to find the scum but not getting strong positives yet and thus being hesitant / moving around, which is how she described herself as well.

I agree that a ton of players appear to be lining up lynches; your example was especially blatant but in general it's not a good sign to be saying "tralala when my current target X flips town I'll go after Y."

Your reasoning for switching to Ender is all by association with Darla. If you think Darla is independently scummy and Ender is likely to be scum if Darla is, then why switch wagons? The reasoning there was just very weak. You simply being afraid of Darla's replacement catching you and OMGUSing to get me out of the way makes much more sense as your actual reason.

[Llamarble]

Welcome Werewolf!

On a reread it looks like DLG may actually believe what he's saying, so he moves to somewhere between null and town.
I don't particularly like Yosarian's ISO but I've never played with him and it's certainly not in the same scumminess league as Bub.
That scumslip of Bub's I pointed out most recently needs comments.
Do all you people not voting Bub really buy that he's a townie who was most suspicious of Darla in spite of her making what he agreed was a respectable case against Bobsnox? And then he immediately turned around and said that it was notable she was continuing to move her vote around?? When was it ever bad to make a reasonable case against somebody and move your vote to them?? When I read that post of his I felt like he knew Darla believed what she was saying, which does not make sense if he thinks she's scum.

[Llamarble]

I feel like there should be all kinds of scum on Bub's wagon by now if it's a mislynch. I would be the easiest D2mislynch ever, and I've provided PLENTY of justification for people to jump on the Bublynch.
*Checks*
Just fishy, who looks highly protown these days. The main reason I had him as a scumread (associative with Bub) before was that when he mentioned Bub's behavior he didn't class it as a tell, and I thought he might be subtly advising Bubbuddy to get his act together, but that is looking pretty darn unlikely at this point and in retrospect that wasn't a good reason at all anyway. And his scumhunting simply looks good.
So I'm feeling more and more confident about Bubscum.

Also I thought I had mined Bub dry of scumtells but I guess I glossed over this on previous reads:
There was a midgame Bub-Nik interaction where Bub FOSes Nik and asks him questions, then simply calls him a VI and too silly to be scum a bit later without a response in between and leaves the situation at that. Nik points out the weirdness of this and Bub ignores him.

Can we please lynch this guy today?

[Llamarble]

How is "We should be cohesive" a good reason to lynch somebody AT ALL? Scum have a bunch of votes that they want to use together to get somebody lynched. Therefore scummy wagons are often "cohesive." It is obviously much easier for scum to agree than for town. The most important goal of a lynch by far is to kill scum.

At the risk of more "look he changed his mind!" complaints:
I reread Whisky and I no longer think he's scum. He makes a lot more sense in ISO and that "Wow I'd never have thought of that but it seems to make sense. Top idea Bob I'm gonna look into that some more." Post looks _way_ more like sarcasm than like self contradiction. Who says "wow I'd never have thought of that" or "Top Idea" nonsarcastically?? I believe he thinks what he says he thinks.


And I do find accusations of "spamming the thread" offensive; I've been responding to accusations and looking for scum.

AND DLG FISHY DOES DISLIKE THE LATECOMERS (BUB BIDDERSKINS WAS L-2)

It is a good point that we have 3 days remaining. Everybody should be voting me, Whiskey, Bub. I don't think there's a serious possibility of lynching anyone else at this point.

[Llamarble]

Okay, those responses both make sense. It was the implication of worthlessness that bothered me.
I got yelled at by Parama in my newbie game for too many walls and have made effort to be more concise in games since then, but it's definitely fair to say I relapsed here so far.

Now it's time to do a more thorough investigation of Whiskey since my previous results on him were pretty conflicted.
I'm almost certain the "top idea" thing was sarcastic regardless of his alignment though.

[Llamarble]

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

[Llamarble]

VT is very "pure." I play because I like trying to read people and I like trying to get people to agree with me, which is all a VT does.
Also I like that if I draw the scumNK I have done a good thing.
I certainly enjoy other roles too though.

Still figuring out Whiskey (and reading other games).

[Llamarble]

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?
I looked through everyone's cases, and it's basically because of this post:

sorry guys on phone here, gonna try to get to what I can see

@DLG - My stance on ender is simply Meta. The other game we participated in he acted exactly the same, blatant scum moves, and ended up we killed our doc due to other factors which I don't want to elaborate on due to the game being on going. If you want to see it yourself it's Newbie #1045. I am not disregarding his actions but I know this is how he plays as town, and granted I haven't seen him as scum either, I honestly just see him as a n00b and do not like his wagon. My guess is that we have at least one if not two scum on that wagon because he's made himself the perfect target for a scum push. As for Fires I don't know, I just get a noob vibes off him. Between he and ender I'd be more inclined to do an ender lynch, but again, I would need something more blatant from him to make me think he wasn't actually town given the meta I have.

Whiskey - thank you for elaborating and to everyone jumping on me for using a vote to get that answer out of him, pardon me if I felt that something needed to be done to get his attention since he ignored me twice

unvote

I am still not sure what Whiskey sees as so scummy about Yos, and not Bob / Jahudo who're also on the ender wagon, but it's worthy of a look back at Yos' posts for me. Maybe he's seeing something I'm not, (although it'd be helpful if he articulated it more clearly if he is town.)

Right now I'd like to see more from Albie. So far his posts have been primarily fluff, o/t or one or two lines.

more coming when i am not on my phone. and apologies if autocorrect did anything wonky in this post, no time to check it.

I really dont like this post you seem to be all over that place finding someone to pin the scum tag on. I also dont like how u ask someone a question about there actions on other players, normally this is sort of ok but here im sure this is another tactic to deflect the chat from you.

And whats all this phone business? we all have stuff to do. have some more time on the phone

vote Darla

I agree that this case is weak. I also think he believes it. "Pinning the scumtag" means the same thing as "fake scumhunting." So he thinks she is fake scumhunting. I disagree, but I don't find it difficult to believe TownWhisky believes a pattern of moving votes around indicates scumminess. The phone stuff is null. He thinks she's making excuses, it gets explained, and he later apologizes.

The contradiction business is explained completely by realizing he's sarcastic there.
I'd let him defend himself but there isn't really time.

[Llamarble]

Yikes, looks like I'm getting lynched again. Precisely how soon is the deadline?

Okay, insincere scumhunting is basically the best tell we have. All others are secondary. So assuming the scum are scumhunting basically throws out 80% of the information we can use to find scum. This is why I don't worry about multiscums D1.

And we should lynch Bub because:
FOS Nik with questions followed by Nik is too VI to be scum with nothing in between from Nik
Voteparked on Darla with weak case. While voteparked there, he
A. Attacks the people he supposedly thinks are helping him lynch scum.
B. Says Darla is doing good scumhunting.
C. Says that changing her vote due to good scumhunting is scummy.
Specifically he says that Bobsnox is probably scum if she is town and calls her out for moving her vote to Bobsnox...
Then suddenly he jumps onto my BW after I call him out as scum simply because the "Darla wagon isn't going anywhere." Hardly a town reason to change wagons, and incredibly insufficient reasoning to stop attacking someone you've been calling scum for a long time.

[Llamarble]

Also new reads because I have to go and may be dead before I get back.

Town:
Llama
Fishy
Darla
Whisky
FF
Bobsnox
Jahudo

Neuteral
Nik
DLG
Broken
CMAR

Scum:
Bub
Werewolf
Yosarian

[Llamarble]

I would vote Whisky to prevent a no-lynch.
And I gave my updated reads without my reasoning because I had to leave and thought I might be dead before getting a chance to post again.
Yos and Werewolf are a ways behind Bub on the scum totem-pole, but Werewolf showed up and voted me for no stated reason after flinter basically just joined the Darla wagon.
Yos seems too experienced of a player not to have town on me at this point (haha burden of proficiency), and he has been voting the enderslot the entire game. Also many of his arguments have a twisty feel to them.

But Bub is really miles ahead of these two in obvscumness.

[Llamarble]

Okay at this point it looks like Bubscum will have to wait.
VOTE: Morewhisky
Hopefully I'm wrong and he's scum.

[Llamarble]

Unvote

Go ahead.

[Llamarble]

Uh you're presumably at L-2 now.

[Llamarble]

Oh actually L-3, it looks like.

[Llamarble]

No way 2 scum are outing themselves to quickhammer you. We don't have time for more hemming/hawing.

[Llamarble]

Also morewhisky is voting himself in that votecount so you're at l-3 once you unvote yourself.

[Llamarble]

Gah I hate this situation. Either me or a claimed PR I have a townread on is getting lynched today...
Why couldn't we just have lynched Bidderskins obvscum??

Scum almost always claim PRs D1 because it sometimes stops them from getting lynched when they would otherwise.
This makes a claimed PR a lot more likely to be scum.
Also FF softclaimed, meaning the odds of randomly hitting a town PR are reduced further.
I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.
VOTE: MoreWhisky


By the way I reread Jahudo and don't have a strong townread on him anymore.
Too much clarificationy posting. The main scumhunting he does is finding Ender scummy for the FF unvote, which is easily explained by Ender just not thinking to put his vote back on, and the Whisky contradiction, which was pretty obviously sarcasm.

P. Edit: Mod fixed that votecount, which is why the last couple posts look weird.

[Llamarble]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted much recently, but real life got in the way of my mafia.

Vote: Llamarble

Obvscum here. He was able to deflect his wagon unsuccessfully onto me, and successfully onto More Whisky.

Whisky's claim was pathetic. I can't believe he would do that.

WHAT?? SUDDENLY I'M OBVSCUM? THIS IS GARBAGE. I didn't "try to deflect my wagon onto morewhisky." I SAID I THOUGHT HE WAS TOWN. THAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF DEFLECTING MY WAGON ONTO SOMEBODY.

VOTE: BUB BIDDERSKINS
My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

[Llamarble]

My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

Well, you and the whole damn town were reading FinalFires as town. Not quite so scintillating in that light is it? And, when you had that little interaction with MoreWhisky just prior to him being lynched, here's what you said.

I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for MoreWhisky as Captain McTownie.

I detest "I told you so" posts. Ones that are so blatantly misleading are even worse. Celebrating the deaths of two townies to prop yourself and your reads up is ultra-scummy.

UNVOTE: Fishythefish
VOTE: Llamarble

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS. I specifically stated in the sentence you quoted that I had a town read on him which was weakened by his PRclaim, which turned out to be fake anyway.

@Jahudo: Who are your suspects and why? I find it hard to tell based on your ISO. Which is not a good sign. And you got on the Whisky wagon for the contradiction-logic, which looked like obvious sarcasm to me.

im joining the escaped prisoners tonight as a prisoner traitor.

This sounds like a traitor role, except traitor is a scum role. If you are not claiming scum, Whisky, how is your role different and why shouldn't we lynch you at this point?

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

[Llamarble]

GO LOOK. THAT WAS AFTER HE SAID HE HAD POWER BUT BEFORE HE MADE HIS RIDICULOUS FAKECLAIM. I stated that because he claimed a PR, and scum near lynch do so a large fraction of the time, he was now substantially more likely to be scum than before. I also STATED THAT MY PRIOR READ ON HIM DID NOT SUGGEST HE WAS SCUM so I adjusted the odds he was scum down by a significant amount. I obviously didn't believe his ridiculous claim when it actually appeared. And I voted him because he was at that point the only alternative to lynching me, the only player I know to be town.

[Llamarble]

My vote was on him because he was the only alternative to myself.
I also thought he was more likely to be scum because he claimed an unspecified power role. I prefer to lynch scummy players who claim PRs unless they're confirmable because scum typically claim PRs, especially D1 when it typically buys them a night. I wouldn't normally want to lynch a non scummy claimed PR, but it was the only alternative to lynching me. See Mini 1105 for me (as llamagod hydra) lynching a claimed cop D1 (he was scum) if you don't think this is something I normally do.

[Llamarble]

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

ONE PERSON DIED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE GENUINE SCUM HUNTING PROBABLY MEANS TOWN. BUT IN SPITE OF THINKING I'M GENUINELY HUNTING FOR SCUM AFTER A NIGHT WITH 1 KILL, YOU STILL VOTE ME???

AND WHY ARE BOBSNOX AND WEREWOLF VOTING ME?? I SEE NOTHING IN THEIR ISOS TO EXPLAIN THAT. ESPECIALLY WEREWOLF'S.

[Llamarble]

YES. I VOTED FOR SOMEONE I THOUGHT WAS TOWN BECAUSE AT THAT POINT IT WAS ME, WHO I KNOW IS TOWN, OR HIM.

Gah I hate this situation. Either me or a claimed PR I have a townread on is getting lynched today...
Why couldn't we just have lynched Bidderskins obvscum??

Scum almost always claim PRs D1 because it sometimes stops them from getting lynched when they would otherwise.
This makes a claimed PR a lot more likely to be scum.
Also FF softclaimed, meaning the odds of randomly hitting a town PR are reduced further.
I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.
VOTE: MoreWhisky


By the way I reread Jahudo and don't have a strong townread on him anymore.
Too much clarificationy posting. The main scumhunting he does is finding Ender scummy for the FF unvote, which is easily explained by Ender just not thinking to put his vote back on, and the Whisky contradiction, which was pretty obviously sarcasm.

P. Edit: Mod fixed that votecount, which is why the last couple posts look weird.

AGFUDTNKIBGDTKKTT
The reason we are talking about whether I had a townread on Whisky or not is because Bub claimed I "Tried to push my wagon onto Morewhisky."

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?
I looked through everyone's cases, and it's basically because of this post:

sorry guys on phone here, gonna try to get to what I can see

@DLG - My stance on ender is simply Meta. The other game we participated in he acted exactly the same, blatant scum moves, and ended up we killed our doc due to other factors which I don't want to elaborate on due to the game being on going. If you want to see it yourself it's Newbie #1045. I am not disregarding his actions but I know this is how he plays as town, and granted I haven't seen him as scum either, I honestly just see him as a n00b and do not like his wagon. My guess is that we have at least one if not two scum on that wagon because he's made himself the perfect target for a scum push. As for Fires I don't know, I just get a noob vibes off him. Between he and ender I'd be more inclined to do an ender lynch, but again, I would need something more blatant from him to make me think he wasn't actually town given the meta I have.

Whiskey - thank you for elaborating and to everyone jumping on me for using a vote to get that answer out of him, pardon me if I felt that something needed to be done to get his attention since he ignored me twice

unvote

I am still not sure what Whiskey sees as so scummy about Yos, and not Bob / Jahudo who're also on the ender wagon, but it's worthy of a look back at Yos' posts for me. Maybe he's seeing something I'm not, (although it'd be helpful if he articulated it more clearly if he is town.)

Right now I'd like to see more from Albie. So far his posts have been primarily fluff, o/t or one or two lines.

more coming when i am not on my phone. and apologies if autocorrect did anything wonky in this post, no time to check it.

I really dont like this post you seem to be all over that place finding someone to pin the scum tag on. I also dont like how u ask someone a question about there actions on other players, normally this is sort of ok but here im sure this is another tactic to deflect the chat from you.

And whats all this phone business? we all have stuff to do. have some more time on the phone

vote Darla

I agree that this case is weak. I also think he believes it. "Pinning the scumtag" means the same thing as "fake scumhunting." So he thinks she is fake scumhunting. I disagree, but I don't find it difficult to believe TownWhisky believes a pattern of moving votes around indicates scumminess. The phone stuff is null. He thinks she's making excuses, it gets explained, and he later apologizes.

The contradiction business is explained completely by realizing he's sarcastic there.
I'd let him defend himself but there isn't really time.

HOW THE ^#@$)! IS THIS "TRYING TO SHIFT MY WAGON ONTO MOREWHISKY???"

[Llamarble]

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

What, pray tell, are you saying here/trying to achieve?

Jahudo said something weird and seemed hesitant to lynch a potential claimed mafia traitor. I requested clarification of this statement along with actual stances / analysis from him. I am trying to achieve finding the scum.

I'm voting you for the same reasons I was voting you yesterday, plus the fact that you have ceased doing all that wall-posting/scumhunting stuff. Your behavior is scummy and your predecessor was scumtastic.

This response is totally inadequate. My point was that you didn't give any even vaguely decent reasons yesterday.
All I saw was Ender's votes on FF. Which while wrong apparently were due to FF playing the newbcard and softclaiming.
And my "lack of scumhunting" (and now suddenly he accuses me of having "stopped scumhunting" so clearly he thought I was before).

[Llamarble]

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS. I specifically stated in the sentence you quoted that I had a town read on him which was weakened by his PRclaim, which turned out to be fake anyway.

No. I never said anything about you would rather lynch MoreWhisky than yourself. My point was that you came out describing yourself as an oracle, when the FinalFires read was one everyone seemed to share and your more MoreWhisky read was not as strong as you implied in that post. I particularly note how you tried to use this flim-flam to support your Bub Bidderskins case.

ONE PERSON DIED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE GENUINE SCUM HUNTING PROBABLY MEANS TOWN. BUT IN SPITE OF THINKING I'M GENUINELY HUNTING FOR SCUM AFTER A NIGHT WITH 1 KILL, YOU STILL VOTE ME???

Let's be clear, although I know you want things blurry. I didn't think you were genuinely scum hunting after a night with 1 kill. I thought that before the night phase. How about the rest of that post that you truncated?

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

So there is no misunderstanding, I will have no hesitation hammering Llamarble if his wagon goes back to L-1. But, of the two, I think there is less reason to doubt that MoreWhisky is scum.

So, at the point where multi-factions seemed a reasonable possibility, I was willing to acknowledge that you seemed to be genuinely going after Bub Bidderskins as a scum suspect. Given the events of the night, a single faction seems more likely. In that light, I must have been mistaken about your sincerity.

The reason we are talking about whether I had a townread on Whisky or not is because Bub claimed I "Tried to push my wagon onto Morewhisky."

And because I called BS on your brag post. Convenient for you to try to shift the focus onto the easier to defend accusation.

These attempts to deflect the real points by misrepresentation are strongly indicative of scum desperation.

SO BECAUSE YOUR ANALYSIS OF MY SCUMHUNTING AS SINCERE NOW CONTRADICTS THE CONCLUSION THAT I AM SCUM, IT MUST BE WRONG??
CAN WE LYNCH MY ENTIRE WAGON PLEASE?

And in what way is "My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra." Remotely discussion-worthy? I complained about people not listening to me D1.
Trying to paint this as a scummy action is pathetic.

[Llamarble]

I apologize for derangedness, but look at the things people on my wagon are saying.
DLG:
"I must have been wrong that llama has been sincerely scumhunting because that would suggest llama is town" transcends normal confirmation bias.
"Llama is scummy because he professed townreads on the dead townies, which isn't a very impressive achievement."

Werewolf is on my wagon for no stated reason other than liking it. He has done absolutely nothing productive in this game so far. But for some reason Bobsnox thinks this play is so fantastically brilliant Werewolf must be buddying him.

Bobsnox has a list of 45326 people he's happy with lynching any of. He thinks I'm scummy because I'm no longer making walls. He asks how on earth I'm not dead yet, then asks who's up for a darla lynch.

Bub so far today has made a post accusing me of deflecting my wagon onto whisky. I called Whisky town throughout the period while his wagon was forming. He is trying to use the fact that I voted him, the sole alternative to lynching myself, as a reason I am scummy. He has accused me of not reading the thread, which I don't understand at all.

Yosarian has been voting my slot most of the game. He keeps picking out things and ignoring the reasons for them in a highly frustrating manner. He says I attacked FF then later said he was town. Well, FF posted something that didn't make sense to me, I reread him, and decided he was still town. He finds me scummy for attacking people who are voting me, when it is the reasoning or lack thereof that bothers me. He says Fishy is scummy for voting me to prevent a no lynch after defending me, when Fishy had explained why he thought I was more likely scum than whisky. He claims "deadline BS" was all that saved me from getting lynched when everyone who was on Whisky's wagon obviously preferred that wagon over mine. He says I avoided being lynched by flooding the thread with posts as opposed to because of the content of those posts.

I understand that not everyone on my wagon can be scum, but some of the reasons people are giving for voting me are driving me crazy.
I really think Bidderskins is scum though.

[Llamarble]

Okay, if Fate is on page 13 and thinks Bidderskins is obvtown...
*braces for scolding*

Interesting how Fate telling me I'm wrong makes me rethink things.

[Llamarble]

Yay, I was expecting Fate to see the truth!
He did indeed mislynch me despite me being confirmed town to him in another game.
Looks like we mostly agree on things other than Darla. So I guess I should go reread her.

And by the way I think Fate is town. Maybe I'm just susceptible to buddying, but his thoughts make all kinds of sense.
Also Nikanor was working his way toward the town list before Fate got here.

@DLG: Fine, having townreads on Whisky and FF isn't that impressive. I guess I got a bit arrogant after success in recent games and I was frustrated over my case being mostly ignored. My pushing of BB's lynch has however always been by pointing out actions of his that I think were scummotivated.

[Llamarble]

Darla still looks like town to me on reread.

[Llamarble]

I think "being Fate" is an investigative role.

@Broken: Neither is a lie. I voted Whisky

before

his fakeclaim because he was the only alternative to myself. When I saw his claim later on, it looked obviously fake. Considering Jahudo was already voting Whisky, I would have expected him to reach a "that's obviously a lie; it's lynchtime" conclusion like the players before him. My suspicion was that he didn't because he was afraid he was lynching a traitorbuddy. He could also have assumed whiskey wasn't lying due to knowing whisky's alignment.

VOTE: Yosarian
I've felt like he's been twisting things to make me look like scum for awhile. Specifically stating actions while ignoring the reasons for them.

[Llamarble]

First of all, in justification of my vote, I've been suspicious of Yosarian for awhile, then Fate came out and said he was suspicious of Yosarian for some of the same reasons I did (twisting to push his case on me (see below for example), not seeing that I'm town (AKA OMGUS except I know Yostown doesn't suck -> Yos isn't town), having an Enderwhiskybobsnox scumlist) and said that Bub is less worthy of lynching. I think Fate is town, and I know Fate is a strong scumhunter, so I am willing to follow him here.

That post (463) is one that made me feel like yos was twisting my actions.

@Yosarian: Can you give some examples of llarmable doing what you mentioned here:

It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage,

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

It really does look like when his back was against the wall, Llamble's response was to just try to flood the thread with posts; the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him. Also some weird stuff going on here with him and whiskey, he keeps swinging back and fourth between calling whiskey scum and defending him, and this continues.

It all looks to me like a scum trying to fight his way out of a corner. I'm trying to avoid using the word "spamming", since he got offended by that and it's really not accurate (it was all game-related stuff, for one thing), but the key thing here is that posting a lot when he gets in trouble is not a town tell here at all, and it feels like people are treating it like one.

"Post 7 included a vague attack at scum piling" on my wagon as an aside at the sudden increase in my wagon's size after I started making my case against Bidderskins (and specifically the fact that Bidderskins himself joined). The bulk and main purpose of that post was an explanation of my reads on Darla.

Post 8 I attacked Bub. Yes.

Post 9 I found a recent post of FF's to be weird because he appeared to be dropping alignment knowledge and lining up lynches, so I reread him. Post 13 is the result of that reread, namely that I still found FF to be town.

Post 10 I attack DLG for voting me because he claimed to believe whisky was lying, which should have given whisky way higher lynch priority from townDLG's perspective.

Post 11 I do say Whiskey also looks scummy for bandwagoning and lack of scumhunting.

Post 15 I say I don't think the whisky contradiction-business was actually him lying but rather him being sarcastic but say I still believe whisky is scummy for the reasons I mentioned in 11. I defended the contradiction business because I believed it was simply sarcasm and that the town should be aware of this since several players were basing reads off of it. At that point I thought Fishy was scummy because the way he pointed out Bub attacking the people on his wagon made me feel like he was defending Bub in advance and trying to tell him to be less scummy. And Yos has been on my scumlist since my 5th post.

Post 16 I do include whisky in my scumlist. In agreement with 11 and 15. So the accusation of flipflopping there is simply inaccurate.

Presenting all the things I did without the accompanying reasons makes it sound like I am swinging around wildly. I did indeed analyze a lot of players and discuss a lot of things in a short period of time. Responding to the reasons people are going after me and analyzing players is not the same thing as "attacking anyone who attacks me." My primary scumread, Bub, joined my wagon after I voted him. For some reason Yosarian declares me scum trying to fight out of a corner instead of town doing so. I believe this is because he wanted to mislynch me.

[Llamarble]

As Fate already explained, the fact that FF softclaimed a nonspecific PR doesn't matter. Scum already know there are going to be PRs. And saying (as Yos did) that I didn't have time to make up a fakeclaim is absurd. All that requires is picking one of tracker/doctor/vig/jailkeeper/roleblocker/cop/JOAT/1shotvig/watcher/bulletproof or any other reasonable choice (hardly a cointoss) out of a hat and boom, you live at least an extra day in most towns. There hadn't even been a night for action-proving yet.

Now you think if llama is scum then llama must be a mysterious high value scumPR, which should further reduce the odds I'm scum in your mind, but you just don't care for some reason. And you also say Fate's theory makes sense and is supported by game events. And yesterday you thought my scumhunting looked sincere. Why are you still voting me again?

And I don't know if Bub is playing the newbcard at this point or what, but saying Fate hasn't given any reasoning is utterly false. This "the wagon chickened out" stuff is utter garbage.

[Llamarble]

My best bet, based on the timing of his claim, is that he just couldn't come up with a good fake claim that'd be believed and wouldn't be counterclaimed. Considering the fairly narrow range of roles allowed in normal games these days, that's not really surprising.

This is what I'm referring to. I think it's ridiculous to believe I couldn't come up with a proper fakeclaim.
A. Most of the methods of confirming you described involve letting the claimant live extra days, which significantly increases the scums' odds of winning unless a buddy gets lynched instead. Since Whisky was town you can rule that out.
B. You can say you got roleblocked, since roleblockers are a very common scum PR.
C. If somebody does counterclaim, you've outed a PR, which is better than nothing.
D. While I believe scum (should) rarely claim VT D1, I am also aware that this is not an opinion shared by many players, and that many players are reluctant to lynch claimed powerroles while claimed VTs are usually lynched immediately. Maybe once I have enough meta for people to realize I only claim VT (D1 anyway) as town I can start claiming it as scum to take advantage of that, but I haven't played enough games for that to be obvious yet (2 scumgames completed).

[Llamarble]

Cmar had recently stated intent to hammer following a non-PR claim. My wagon was twice the size of anyone else's. I had no reason to expect I would survive after claiming VT. Also scumpower often helps scum 'prove' their fakeclaims.
@Bub:

Marble has been fighting for his life for goddamn last 15 pages of this thread for what I can see.

SO YEAH, when I come in and see how town he is and I fight on his side, unlike Fishy who is a passive player, he SUCKS UP TO ME.

BECAUSE I AM THE SAVIOR OF THIS TOWN.

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.
Also your excuse that "FF softclaimed, so marble didnt want to claim PR" is BS because WHETHER FF SOFTCLAIMED OR NOT, scum knows there are POWERROLES out ther ein this setup.


Go back. Re-read the WHOLE pages from when Marble was at L-2, to when he was at L-1, to when he claimed. His LINE OF THOUGHT was CLEARLY town. He wanted to get as much information and debate out there as possible, BEFORE claiming VT which he knew would likely result in his lynch.

THAT IS OBVTOWN.

Another thing: Devil's avocado on "Llmabrble wont die at night cuz hes scum" is stupid and just arguing for the sake of it.

Another thing: Vote Yosarian, not Llmarble. Llmarble doesn't die as long as I am alive. Is that clear? Mislynch him tomorrow if you fucks want, but not today.

Another thing: Marble's train of thought when Whisky was being run up, then softclaimed, then BULLSHIT CLAIMED, was clear as day.


Oh and here I am, I basically just listed all the reasons Marble is town.

SO THEREY OU GO YOSARIANSCUM, YOU GOT WHAT YOU WANTED. LETS SEE HOW YOU TWIST THESE POINTS

I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

^This is not scum worried abotu self-preservation. He calls the counter wagon, that

we know was on town

, "not a good choice" and call Whisky TOWN, when he could've easily had a "scum" read on him to justify Whisky's wagon.

NEXT.

I call people lynching one person when they could have lynched another "thinking and deciding another player is more likely to be scum."
I believe Bobsnox's point is that you referred to the players who got off my wagon as "townies" which may have been an alignment-knowledge slip.

[Llamarble]

THAT WAS L - 1

On Darla's votejustification:
Accusing me of lacking original thoughts does not make sense.
Yes, I am happy that a llama/Fishy/Fate townalliance has formed. Fishy's post about feeling more optimistic agreed completely with my feelings. Fate happens to be my favorite player on MS (true since well before I joined this game), so when he shows up, realizes I'm town, and it finally looks like town has a real chance of winning, I feel extremely relieved/vindicated/happy.

On sheeping accusation:
I am voting the same person Fate is voting, but it's not like I haven't given reasoning. In fact, a lot of Fate's own reasoning was exactly the same as things I had pointed out earlier. It's true that I value Fate's opinion highly and that him agreeing on those matters made me trust those arguments more (Fishy apparently felt similarly), pushing Yos over Bub on my scumlist. But by no means am I voting Yos simply because I was told to.

On Jahudo's votejustification:
First off, I said Ender, Whisky, and Bobsnox looked like easy scumtargets IF TOWN. So that doesn't conflict with my then scumread on Whisky.
I described what the situation felt like to me (Yosscum prepping to target bobs/whisky after a darlatownflip). Sure there are other ways to read that situation, but that was an explanation which made the world make sense to me. It's really hard to prove that sort of interpretation is "more likely than anything else," so I stated it so other players could see it and decide if they felt the same way.

This "attacking the vocal voices more than the swing voters" stuff is garbage. Vocal wagonpushers said more things, so I ended up responding to / raging at them more.

[Llamarble]

@Bub:
Those posts of Fate also pointed out that my line of thought while I was being wagoned D1 was townlike.
And that I defended the alternative lynch to myself, who turns out to have been town for certain.
Your failure to read even the post you quoted takes your play to a level of lousiness you didn't suffer from D1.
Your statement about me being more likely to be scum than whisky after his townflip is also awful. When I and others voted whisky, it was out of a belief he was likelier scum than me (at least for town members of that wagon). DUH. Calling this "chickening out" makes NO SENSE.

@Jahudo: When I settled onto a townread on whisky, it was because I read him carefully and decided that he _believed_ in the reasoning for which he was voting Darla (and doing his other actions). But yes, I did initially see his scumhunting as poor and his wagoning onto Darla as scummy until my more thorough investigation of him. I was not really considering multiple scum factions (since if scum are scumhunting sincerely they're really hard to find). I did consider various players as possible scumteam members though. I thought Whisky might have been thrown into the FOS list but not seriously attacked because he was a Bidderskins buddy. I specifically think it's weird that Bub was attacking players he should have thought were helping him lynch scum given his Darlatunnel.

I've already explained why putting a lot of easy lynches on a scumlist is convenient for scum.

@DLG:
I was simply making it clear that I wasn't going to wait until right up against the deadline or anything like that. And yes, even though I did not expect to survive after my claim I did want to at least continue discussion a bit more and hopefully get some more reactions out of it for people to read D2.

[Llamarble]

I've responded to much of what Yosarian mentioned already, but since he collected his accusations I'll collect my answers to them.
But first I'll take a moment to explain why Bub's latest post continues his D2 pattern of not making any sense.

Bub said "Fate only finds llama town due to his VT claim."
I responded by quoting other reasoning Fate had given. Now Bub is accusing me of hiding behind Fate and not defending myself because I gave examples from Fates posting to prove that Bub had not been reading at all carefully and missed a number of other things Fate pointed out. I have defended myself plenty in other posts which didn't have as their specific purpose proving Bub did not read Fate.

I've already said that I defended Whisky as his wagon was forming because I thought he was town and didn't want to lynch him, then voted him as deadline approached when he became the only alternative to lynching me. If another player who isn't confirmed town is the only alternative lynch to you, you vote them, period.

Accusing me of not reading is ridiculous.

Now onto Yosarian.

[Llamarble]

A long post demands a long response, so apologies for walltasticism.

-Ender started out scummy early. First, when FF implied he was a town power role (remember, he was the doctor), Ender jumped on his wagon really early, and then jumped right back off as soon as he realized this would make him look bad.

He jumped off because he thought it only took 5 votes to lynch, making it L-1. This would be a really really weird excuse for scum to make up.

-When people asked him about this, and started to get suspicous of him for his odd vote/unvote on Fires, his response was the scummy:

VOTE: Finalfires

Happy now?

His whole behavior on the early Fires wagon really looks like scum who wanted to lynch a town power role, but also was very worried about how he looked, and was very willing to give in to pressure in general.

My assumption is that he didn't immediately revote FF because he simply didn't think to. Then when it was pointed out to him he revoted.

His next few posts were equally odd. First, Ender defends Darla, attacking Whiskey for voting for her. Then a few posts later, he says:

I think if everyone thinks Darla is scum that it would be a wise choice to kill her, if i have to be killed for a scum to be taken out then i am willing for that to happen.

which is just a bizzare post. He keeps trying to do this self sacrificing theme "Oh, it's ok, if I have to die in order to lynch Darla, that's ok", and it dosn't make sense; he's not even voting Darla at this point, he had just been defending her, and in his next post he says he "dosn't have a reason to vote Darla.". All I can think about this melodrama is that it's an act by a scum to try to look more town, it doesn't make sense otherwise.

Lynch me then lynch X!! is a common enough thing for a newbie to say, though it usually involves a scumread on X. But Ender's wording consistently suggests he believes for some reason that everyone else has decided him being innocent would indicate Darla is scum, so he is willing to die if it will help catch a scum tomorrow.

He then goes quiet for a few days, and when he comes back, he says:

Sorry for not posting for a while guys.

At the moment i think it's bobsnox.

and then, half an hour later:

Unless i have to vote him i won't though, i'd prefer VOTE: Finalfires.

And then he never posts again, and is replaced.

Okay, he is suspicious of Bobsnox, then reads some more or something and goes back to his previous suspicions on Final Fires.

All of Ender's posts really look like newb scum to me. He wants to lynch a town power role, but doesn't want to get in trouble for doing it; he's really inconsistent and illogical in his posts, and he mostly seems to want to try and look town.

Ender was newbtown. He voted a player with an early softclaim, then unvoted thinking it was L-1 and not wanting a premature lynch, then revoted after it was pointed out that this wasn't the case and later that he hadn't put his vote back on yet. He is indeed somewhat illogical and inconsistent, but he believed the things he said.

Stuff against me in next post.

[Llamarble]

Llama:

When he replaced in, he was already in trouble, due to Ender's scummy behavior. He tries quite hard, and quite effectivly, to shake off the wagon on him, but he uses what I consider to be scummy means to do so.

I explained this before, but right after he got to 6 votes against him, he suddenly goes into flailing overdrive. He goes through, and in a series of fairly contradictory posts, attacks pretty much everyone who was voting for him. Rather then repeat myself, let me just repeat my earlier analysis of this series of posts here:

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

This doesn't look like a town person trying to find scum, or a town person trying to put together a defense. It looks like a scum with his back to the wall, trying desperately to find some kind of a handhold with which to launch a counterattack against the townies who have him close to a lynch.

I've talked about this already so I'll just quote myself.

"Post 7 included a vague attack at scum piling" on my wagon as an aside at the sudden increase in my wagon's size after I started making my case against Bidderskins (and specifically the fact that Bidderskins himself joined). The bulk and main purpose of that post was an explanation of my reads on Darla.

Post 8 I attacked Bub. Yes.

Post 9 I found a recent post of FF's to be weird because he appeared to be dropping alignment knowledge and lining up lynches, so I reread him. Post 13 is the result of that reread, namely that I still found FF to be town.

Post 10 I attack DLG for voting me because he claimed to believe whisky was lying, which should have given whisky way higher lynch priority from townDLG's perspective.

Post 11 I do say Whiskey also looks scummy for bandwagoning and lack of scumhunting.

Post 15 I say I don't think the whisky contradiction-business was actually him lying but rather him being sarcastic but say I still believe whisky is scummy for the reasons I mentioned in 11. I defended the contradiction business because I believed it was simply sarcasm and that the town should be aware of this since several players were basing reads off of it. At that point I thought Fishy was scummy because the way he pointed out Bub attacking the people on his wagon made me feel like he was defending Bub in advance and trying to tell him to be less scummy. And Yos has been on my scumlist since my 5th post.

Post 16 I do include whisky in my scumlist. In agreement with 11 and 15. So the accusation of flipflopping there is simply inaccurate.

Presenting all the things I did without the accompanying reasons makes it sound like I am swinging around wildly. I did indeed analyze a lot of players and discuss a lot of things in a short period of time. Responding to the reasons people are going after me and analyzing players is not the same thing as "attacking anyone who attacks me." My primary scumread, Bub, joined my wagon after I voted him. For some reason Yosarian declares me scum trying to fight out of a corner instead of town doing so. I believe this is because he wanted to mislynch me.

He also keeps going back and fourth with this odd "I don't know if whiskey is contradiction lying, but if you think he is, then you MUST NOT VOTE ANYONE BUT HIM" thing with DLG. It looks like he was trying to keep DLG voting for whiskey (instead of him) but at the same time wanted to set himself up as a defender of whiskey. In reality, I don't agree with that at all; if you catch someone lying about they're role, they're pretty much an auto-lynch, but while contradicting yourself can be scummy, it's not anywhere near in the same category. And again, in that few days, he swings back and forth of whisky a bunch of times; sometimes attacking him, sometimes defending him, sometimes doing both at once. For example:

DLG supposedly thought Whisky had said "I think llama and Darla are buddies" and then in his next post had said "llama and Darla? Buddies? I'd never have thought of that." If Whisky had actually meant that second post, he would have totally forgotten what his reads were, which doesn't make sense at all from town who are trying to figure out who the scum are. Therefore I found it extremely strange that DLG was voting me despite believing this behavior from Whisky. But I also stated I believed Whisky to have been simply sarcastic, so you are accusing me of trying to get someone to change their vote while explaining why the reason they should change their vote was bad??? How about I was pointing out DLG's behavior not making sense from a town perspective and explaining why I thought whisky was being sarcastic to clarify things and help the town make a better decision. I think that makes immensely more sense, and it so happens that's what I was actually doing.

I think he was trying to both get whiskey lynched and set it up so he could claim to be a defender of whiskey the next day. Llama denied this later, and Fate is using Llama's so called "defense" of whiskey as the major point in his defense, so let's look at what Llama actually said about Whiskey in some detail here.

Whiskey looks scummy, but we'll see how things appear once I'm fully caught up. Also I have no idea who I'm voting.

Unvote

Calls Whiskey scummy.

Vote: Bub Bidderskins
He is tunneling/voteparked on DBE but doesn't like the other members of the wagon on her.

He has lined up Bobsnox or Whiskey lynches for D2 in the event of a Darlatownflip.
I'm not really impressed by his case on DBE.
Yosarian is also kind of scummy looking.

Then again Whisky is also pretty bad.

Calls Whiskey a mislynch, but then IN THE SAME POST says he looks "bad".

Note "THEN AGAIN" which means I am considering multiple possibilities.

@DLG: WHY WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THE LYNCH OF ANY OTHER PLAYER THAN ONE YOU CAUGHT LYING?

Demands DLG keeps voting Whiskey.

Huh, I still don't see where Morewhisky is contradiction-lying (please make this clear somebody who thinks he is).
But he has done absolutely pitiful scumhunting, and is bandwagoning like a champ. So he's a likely Bidderbuddy.
That would make sense with Bidderscum's play; Lynch town today, FOS a buddy and a townie for tomorrow.

Disagrees with Bub's case on Whiskey, but then calls whiskey scum for other reasons. Ends up calling Whiskey scum with Bub.

My reads are getting settled in at this point, so I'll summarize with a list:
Town:
Llama
Jahudo
Bobsnox
Darla
FF

Null:
Broken
DLG
CMAR
Flinter

Somewhat scummy:
Yos
Fishy
Nikanor

Scummy:
Whisky

Scum:
Bidderskins

I'm going to go back and look for the case against Ender now and try to deal with it.
I want responses (Preferably votes in agreement) to my case against Bidderskins.

Calls Whiskey scum again.

IF YOU BELIEVE A PLAYER IS CAUGHT LYING, ANY OTHER LYNCH IS UNACCEPTABLE.
That said I don't think Whisky's supposed contradiction was anything other than sarcasm even if he's scum.

Demands DLG keeps voting for whiskey, but at the same time says he dosn't agree with the case. Then goes on to add "even if he's scum", again implying that Llama thinks Whiskey is likely scum.

His behavior fits with an apparent "lynch Darla then Snox/Whisky" plan shared by a Yosarian/Bub scumteam.

Then, with his absurd "Bub/Yos are trying to mislynch Darla and then mislynch Whiskey" conspiricy theory, implies that Whiskey is town again.

How is that an absurd theory? I thought the scum were setting things up so that snox/whisky would look bad in the event Darlatown got mislynched, with Bub actively pushing said mislynch. Hardly an extremely complicated idea and it makes sense of Bub's accusations toward Darla while attacking the people suspicious of her. And I also thought Whisky could be scum with FOS scumbuddy vote townie going on from Bub and/or Yos.

Then, after Whiskey defended LLama:

Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

Llama flips and starts defending Whiskey.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?

So, at this point, either Llama is now defending Whiskey since Whiskey is pretty much the only guy still on his side, or else Llama honestly did a re-read and changed his mind on Whiskey being scummy.

Whisky was suddenly looking like a potential lynch for the day, so I reread him more carefully and came out with a townread. I don't see what use defending him has for scum-me considering by doing so I was making myself more likely to be lynched.

But then, only a few hours later, he flips again, and starts setting himself up so he can vote Whiskey if necessary to protect himself.

I would vote Whisky to prevent a no-lynch.

Okay at this point it looks like Bubscum will have to wait.
VOTE: Morewhisky
Hopefully I'm wrong and he's scum.

He unvote whiskey again after this, but then after Whiskey claims a power role, he has this bizzare post:

Scum almost always claim PRs D1 because it sometimes stops them from getting lynched when they would otherwise.
This makes a claimed PR a lot more likely to be scum.
Also FF softclaimed, meaning the odds of randomly hitting a town PR are reduced further.
I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.
VOTE: MoreWhisky

Suddenly he's more suspicious of Whiskey, and more willing to lynch him, because Whiskey claimed to be a power role? That doesn't make any sense at all to me. Pro-town people are usually much less willing to lynch a power role. (Note this was before Whiskey's absurd fakeclaim).

I think a player who claims a PR is more likely to be scum than one who hasn't, especially D1 with a PRclaim from a probable townie already out there. But I still believed him to be town, and my vote was on whisky in spite of that because he was the sole alternative to lynching me. I would absolutely have preferred to lynch one of my scumreads.

Then, in Llama's first post of day 2, tried to use his "defense of whiskey" as a reason why he was town, and I really don't buy that. He went back and fourth on whiskey any number of times in the short period he was playing; he was inconsitant throughout.

In my first post D2 I pointed out Bub's accusation that I tried to deflect my wagon onto MW was garbage because I was defending MW, which is the opposite of deflecting your wagon onto them. I found whisky scummy initially and felt him being scum was a strong possibility until I reread him in depth as he became a possible lynch for the day, whereupon my read on him changed to town, where it stayed. I voted him when it became clear that he was the only lynch option other than myself. That's hardly "going back and forth any number of times."

This post of mine is already absurdly long, so I'm going to wrap it up here, even though there's more I could say. Let me just say that I also think LLama's day 2 posting seems OMGUS-ish, and oppertunistic. Based on his day 1 convictions, he should be trying to lynch Bub; based on his day 2 case, he should be trying to lynch DLG, but instead, he's trying to lynch me. Why? Because that way he can follow Fate, and that way Fate takes the blame when the wagon goes wrong, and because this way it looks like he can actually get a mislynch. Looking at Llama's posts, he spent so much time saying how sure he was that Bub and DLG are scum, but then just drops that as soon as he has the chance to mislynch someone else; I don't buy that at all as coming from town-Llama.

What made you think I should be trying to lynch DLG? I think I've raged at him more than anybody else, but whenever I cooled off and analyzed him he never really came up as near the scummiest player since it seemed like he might actually believe his case against me regardless how outrageously bad it seemed. It's true I'd probably still be voting Bub if Fate hadn't arrived, but Fate made me way more confident of my reasons for suspicion of Yos and shook my confidence in Bubscum with his early posting.

[Llamarble]

Of course I don't think I'm going to change your mind scum. You're already all-in to lynch me today. That post wasn't for your benefit. I do hope the town will understand that your case against me is based on twisting my actions to look scummy.

YOU ARE RIDICULOUSLY TWISTING MY "WHY IS DLG VOTING ME IF HE THINKS WHISKY IS LYING" STUFF.
DLG said he thought Whisky was lying about his reads on my slot/Darla. But he voted me. I thought this was a really weird move from DLG since if he actually believed Whisky was lying it would be extremely strong evidence of whiskyscum, so his stated belief didn't make sense with a non whiskyvote. I also stated I disagreed that Whisky was lying there and believed he was being sarcastic BECAUSE I THOUGHT WHISKY WAS BEING SARCASTIC. So I felt given DLG's assumptions his play didn't make sense but I also disagreed with his assumptions.

I found Whisky scummy shortly after replacing. That's where my opinion of him stayed until I reread him more carefully because it looked like he might be lynched. I then found him town-looking. That doesn't rule out me considering possibilities with him scum/not scum at different points.

I've never voted DLG. Bub I thought was scum BEFORE he jumped on my wagon. I AM VOTING YOU BECAUSE I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. I still think Bub is scummy, and his posting D2 has been AWFUL, but as I've previously explained after Fate arrived and agreed with my reasons for finding you scummy I became way more confident in them.

[Llamarble]

I didn't get anything telling me I was masonized or anything like that.

[Llamarble]

I reread Darla yet again and I still think she's town. Her thoughts just make sense from someone who is trying to find the scum.
DP also seems town so far. And town do make gambits sometimes. I'm not interested in lynching Fate today. Especially since claiming masonizer is so easily disprovable. I find it conceivable though quite unlikely that he's been bussing, but his reactions really make me feel like he shares my perspective on the game.

Town:
Llama
Fishy
Broken
DLG
Fate
Darla
Bob
DP

Scum:
Yos
Bub
Jahudo
WW

Jahudo's stance on Darla has been strange. Much of D1 he thinks she's town. D2 He asks her a couple questions, then votes her saying he'll hang out on her wagon awhile till he gets answers. Then he votes me because I'm the issue of the day, sad to leave the Darlalynch he was "gun ho" for. Then after a bit more he revotes Darla, his "fav wagon." The expressed strength of his suspicions on Darla don't really make sense with him asking a couple questions and expressing an intention to hang out on her wagon. It also feels like opportunistic scum wanting not to lynch his yosbuddy but being willing to lynch another townie instead of me if possible since my flip will make his buddies look bad.

[Llamarble]

Werewolf is scummy for voting me without giving any sort of reasonable explanation.
He replaced flinter, who basically just attacked Darla, Ender, and whisky while calling Jahudo a voice of reason.

Why is Darla town?
I think she's trying to find the scum. For example, her ISO section looks like legitimate thinking about those players.
@your question 1: She says in that post that she thinks whisky is likelier scum than me and she doesn't want to vote Bub either so she votes Whisky.
@your question 2: Getting confused about who votes came from due to not checking to be ultrasure seems very believable to me. She saw two wagons and two new votes for one of the wagons and assumed they came from the other / that the player votes were moving to was the viable deadline lynch. She also says she thought my slot was scummy but my scumhunting made her think I was at least more useful than whisky, whom she voted. Again, that makes sense. And she doesn't forget about her suspicion of Bobsnox; he's just not a viable lynch.

[Llamarble]

@Broken: I've explained that previously, I think. Basically Fate showed up and said Yos was scum for reasons that resonated with me because I had been thinking along the same lines previously. Yos' post assigning scummotives to my actions felt extremely twisty to me. He kept insisting the actual reasons for my actions were not believable in ways that felt unreasonable to me.

But I guess Yosscum would need either scuminfopowers or Fatebuddy in order to be so sure Fate was lying about me there.

UNVOTE: Yosarian
VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

[Llamarble]

@ Llamarble
Same question as the one to bobsnox, but even more I would have expected you to really go after this point as opposed to arguing about "chickened out".

I didn't think it was a huge issue; in that situation Bubtown thinks I'm scum and thus assumes the people on my wagon were likely townies. Or Bubscum knows they're townies. Or Bub is using townie as a substitute for "player" instead of "town-aligned player." I tend to care more about actions & logic than wording unless I see wording that strikes me as remarkably unlikely from one alignment.

[Llamarble]

Reread Rekirts->Cmar->DP and Bub. I now entirely agree with him being next lynch/vig if Bub flips scum.
And I remain quite happy with my Bub vote.

Reasons Bub & DP are buddies to follow. Some are individual tells & some associative.

Rekirts:
Pushed Darla wagon with Bub. Mentions Bub's "good observation."
Otherwise talks minimally about Bub.
Uses laugh defense to Nikanor's accusation of him.
Buddies DLG while DLG is willing to push on Darla.

CMAR:
"Bub has the same thoughts as I do (post 38), though not necessarily in a protown fashion" I think this is technically softclaiming Bub as a scumbuddy with a bit of distancing mixed in.
Continues team effort @ buddying DLG.
Posts similar scumlist to Bub's.
NEVER ACTUALLY MENTIONED ANY REASON FOR FINDING ME SCUMMY. Then put me on top of his scumlist and said he'd hammer if the town gave him permission, and followed that up by saying he agreed with Nikanor that I was townlike.
FOS: Bub Vote: Bob when Bub has more case made against him, is a more plausible lynch, and both look similar under his wagon analysis.
Next votes whisky saying he thinks I'm scum with whisky.
D2 Says there is scum in Broken/bub/me/bob as that's the early FF wagon, now Ender making the worst vote and Bob less scummy. So still it's FOS Bub, but now llama is a major suspect again despite his contrary interpretation of events yesterday. He replaces out before giving a decision between me/Bub.

DP:
DP ALSO thinks Bub is town and barely mentions him otherwise, making the slot 3 for 3 except for CMAR's unacted upon FOS. Replacements sometimes agree with who they replaced, but here it looks like they're simply all following the same plan.
Hops onto Fate wagon after the gambit is exposed, at a time when scum would be thrilled to get a free LAL lynch.
His werewolf vote sounds like hehehahaha this townie is soooo scummy! (which may mean WW isn't scum)
Hops chainsaw style back onto Fate for a weak reason when Fate begins to direct the wagon onto BB.

Bub:
A bunch of stuff already mentioned for individual tells.
FOSes Nikanor for his Rekirts vote & asks what the reasons are, then without any response from Nikanor dismisses Nik as a VI.
Doesn't really ever say anything else about Rekirts, Cmar, or DP, though to be fair he's pretty much spending all of his posts attacking me for awhile and only recently has switched to Fate.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I think it's about time we finally lynch Bub. I'll update my case against him next chance I get if people need help being convinced.

[Llamarble]

Bub's play this game, abridged version:
Vote: FFtown
Opportunistic FOS: Llamatown
Vote: DBE for hesitancy (Maybe good enough for a vote. Not good enough for tunneling.)
More case on DBE thrown in with "meh, I think Jahudo is town" (Jahudo is buddy #1?)
FOS: Nikanor for Strikervote-> no response from Nikanor or threat to striker-> Nik is a VI (Striker is buddy #2?)
Bobsnox & Whiskytown are scumspects #1 & 2 should DBE flip scum. (woo lining up lynches & the people helping me lynch scum are scum)
Attacks Bobsnox a bunch more, thinks DBE's scumhunting of Bob is good. (top scumread is doing good scumhunting; the guys on this wagon with me are real scummy)
I'mma stay on DBE wagon because I think she's the most probable scum and if not it's a good informationlynch. (distancing from darlatownflip and preserving lynch DBE -> Snoxwhisky lineup)
Posts a bit more DBE case, this time she's justifying lurking by mentioning RL. (have I mentioned that I wasn't impressed by the reasons he was giving for DBEscum?)
Moves to my wagon after I vote him and look like I may get lynched. (Yikes this guy might get me lynched if I leave him around too long. Quicklynch gogo!)
Tunnels me for a long time for bad reasons. Like, a long time. Barely discusses any other players at all. Lots of theatrics & minimal actual case.
Jumps onto Fate when my wagon is stalled and Fate's is growing on pretext of the gambit. Fate also happens to be the counterwagon against his lynch.

Also one or both of Jahudo / DP make perfect sense as scumbuddies, as I outlined before for DP.

The world just makes all of the sense ever if Bub is scum. So can we pleaseplease lynch him?

[Llamarble]

My brokenscraps suspicion up until recently has been a "I've got a bad feeling but I can't put my finger on it" feeling which I've been trying to develop before I explain, but I guess I pretty much understand it now so:

696 : broken thinks llama might be scum but focuses on his wagon being bad. He doesn't explain most of his reads (including my vote, werewolfs vote, darla's vote) in this post, which looks more like keeping his options (and his reasoning) open as long as he can. It looks like he's purposefully not taking a stance on whether llama or the llama wagon looks more scum.

This attitude helped me understand some of his Day 1 play:

443 : Broken unvotes llama, while still being wary of him, and then implies that scum might be responsible for the llama wagon falling apart. Its the same as 696, he feels like he wants to put suspicion on practically everyone.

The d1 post (443) makes sense. He does indeed unvote me while being wary of me because he finds whisky more suspicious. He explains that he finds it unlikely my wagon fell apart without all 3 scum already on it (one of them would likely hammer), which isn't wholly unreasonable. (though considering the alternative wagon that actually succeeded was also on town, they may have just been saving my mislynch for later or lurking or similar)

The d2 post (696) also makes sense. He is still wary of me but thinks the votes on me are bad, and gives concise explanations why.
Werewolf: Self explanatory. Darla: sheeping accusation looks like an excuse rather than honest suspicion.
Jahudo: wants to "join the arms race" while preferring Darla lynch to either and calling motives on both sides questionable.
Bub: spending a lot of time talking about how we should lynch me because I wasn't lynched D1 / complaining about chickening out.

I'm not sure what you find suspicious about Broken. I still think you're a Bubbuddy.

[Llamarble]

One Bubbuddymotive to not vote Fate is to avoid being caught on a counterwagon. The deadline is getting fairly close, so I can also see scum stalling for either a nolynch or a vote justified by impending deadline. I don't see any reason for town to vote someone who is not currently a plausible lynch without making substantial effort to push it.

But my main point was that Jahudo's reasons for voting Broken are pretty weak. I do think DP is a more likely Bubbuddy than Jahudo.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, deadline is in maybe 4 days & I don't want to hear a claim up against the deadline.
It's important for Jahudo/DBE/Broken to weigh in on the issue of the day.
Most people seem to think that if Fate is scum then I am town because there's no way he'd have gone so far out of his way to protect me were I his buddy.
But there's even less reason for scumfate to protect townllama since after lynching me (easy enough considering the situation when he replaced in), Bub/Yos (who are currently voting Fate and thus relatively unlikely buddies) would've looked awful and been easy targets tomorrow.
I very much doubt Fate is scum unless he and Yosarian are buddies.
So let's lynch Bub.

[Llamarble]

~Two days until deadline

No excuses not to be voting someone at this point. And it should be Bub. Read my or Fishy's posting if you can't get past Fate's fakeclaim. There's just no scum reason for him not to take the easy llamalynch -> easy Bub/Yos lynch approach.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, it's not really about the "townies on the wagon" thing, at least for me. I made a summary of why I found Bub scummy a bit ago, and Fishy has made good points too.
*awaits Bub's claim*

[Llamarble]

... So you're suddenly back to wanting to lynch me after voting for Fate for a long time??
If you flip town I will be stunned and dismayed. Hammer sounds good about now.

I have a somewhat neutral-leaning-town read on Bub at the moment, but still willing to hammer given a deadline coming up if his wagon is larger than Fate's.

His wagon is obviously larger than Fate's; he's at L-1. And the deadline is tomorrow. A very strange post indeed. I hope Bub flips scum and we can lynch DP next.

[Llamarble]

Bub flipping town and 2 kills have kind of blown up my previous impression of what was going on.
I find DBEscum much more believable now. I was concerned about a lack of potential Darlabuddies, but Broken or Yos could be that and another could be bussing.

[Llamarble]

Flinter voted Darla D1, so I doubt WW/DBE are scum together. But I do think DBE is scum and that she should claim.

[Llamarble]

Yay, it's catch up night.
If Darla is scum with DP then both DP and his predecessor bussed her. I don't think Flinter would have bussed DBE. DBEscumbuddies would likely be one or both of Yos/Broken, with Jahudo a decent possibility for a "vote scumbuddy but don't try very hard to get her lynched" approach. DBE's initial wagon appears to have been almost entirely town. While she can usually explain herself she hasn't really gotten into melee. During her ISO flurry, she covers players who are now confirmed townies & Rekirts/DP (likely not her buddy). There's a lot of aspersion-casting from her and not much pushing, which makes sense considering two townies (me and bub) yowling for each others' lynches gives scum a substantial incentive to simply stay out of the way. Her D2 votes for me and for Bub both seem opportunistic & justified rather than read-driven. Yes, Bub was wagoning, and I was in strong agreement with Fate. But giving only those reasons feels like she went through to find a good excuse and then put it down and voted. Saying "why aren't we lynching llama" at the beginning of today is scumplaining.

I have no idea how to catch serial killers beyond the fact that they really really don't want to be seen defending scum, so they don't put themselves on the line for anyone, ruling out Fate & Fishy. DBESK could have flaked or doubleshot FF N1 and Bobsnox N2 for the "I wanna vig Darla," but then who are the scumteam?

By the way, Yos isn't a confirmed PR; there remains the unlikely but certainly not unbelievable Yos/Fate bushappy scumteam possibility.

I guess I should consider the "Suppose DBE were town, then what" possibility before running ahead with a lynch though.

[Llamarble]

I suppose I'm prepared to hammer DBE. Claimtime.

[Llamarble]

Unvote

Who are broken's buddies? At this point the number of players is small enough that we can start thinking more holistically.
I don't want to lynch someone I can't think of buddies for. (I'm not saying that's a problem for broken specifically, but it's something to think about)
Setup speculation:
There might be 4 mafia considering claimed copdocvigtracker. But somebody would have quickhammered DBE, so that's out. But then we have to buy 11 townies with copdocvig vs 3 scum.
That is also pretty unbelievable, so DBE essentially must be some flavor of scum. That leaves us with copdoctracker as town PRs, 3 mafia, an SK, and 7 VTs. Sounds good to me. If there's another decently strong town PR out there Yos is likely a scumtracker.
Town:
Llama
Fishy
Fate
Yos?

SK:
Darla

Scum: 3 of
Broken
Jahudo
WW
DP

I need to reanalyze those last 4 to see if there is a group of 3 I can buy as the scumteam. If not I'll have to look back into Fishy/Fate, whom I haven't checked out in awhile.

[Llamarble]

Do people think DP & WW could be scum together? I'm having a hard time deciding if the mega vote / he's not aggressive enough thing was distancing or not.

[Llamarble]

My townread on Fate is fraying a bit. I could see Fatescum using me as a pet townie.

I want more of a case against WW including potential buddies. I guess I'll try and puzzle together what's going on soon.

[Llamarble]

I'll do some more analysis tonight. I need to reevaluate my townread on Fate and decide which of the lynch candidates for today are best.

[Llamarble]

Gah, I was unable to reaffirm my townread on Fate. I kind of think he's scum now.
"Does anyone believe that 6 town players voted 1-nonmafia (vig/SK) with absolutely zero mafia getting involved?"
This happened on my wagon too, if you and Yos (my impression of the setup suggests Yos is town) are town, but this is a good point.
And if I remember correctly I thought Flinter was scum, and Werewolf too.
VOTE: Locke

[Llamarble]

I'm going to call hypothetical nonred mafia blue mafia.

I don't see how DBE could possibly not be some kind of scum at this point. Red mafia's kill clearly failed. DBE has claimed a failed kill.
Simplest explanation by far is DBE being red mafia and her kill failing due to some machinations.
If she'd claimed the Yos kill I'd have assumed she was SK and the mafia failed to kill her due to her immunity (or blue maf who survived for some other reason),
but that doesn't make sense now and would mean we should lynch her anyway.

I think we'll end up in 5-person lylo tomorrow if we lynch her with 2 blues left. Hard to win but not impossible, especially since DBE & Yos being scum and Yos being a framer mean we probably have some town firepower left.

We can keep her around to make crosskills / on the off chance she actually is a vig, but I think lynching her might be a good idea.

Certainly Darla/Yos scumteam is believable for me.

I need to look at the normal rules to see what could possibly be going on here.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: DBE
She's either lying or her kill failed because it was the redmaf kill.
Or some _weird_ stuff is going on that makes us get 1, 2, 1 out of 3 potential kills. Or redirection put someone's kill on Yos while stopping someone else's.
Neither of those alternatives are seriously plausible.

We can expect 5person lylo tomorrow, which while not awesome at least puts the game in our hands.

[Llamarble]

Bus drivers and redirectors are explicitly non-normal. The Yos kill did not originate from the redscum. The kill that originated from redscum is therefore the kill that originated from DBE as both were blocked. Or DBE is lying, but we would still lynch her in that case.

The only thing that bothers me is the 1kill N1, but maybe FF's protection succeeded or more likely both scumgroups targeted FF.

[Llamarble]

DBE could be SK and lying, but then we end up with 2 red mafia left instead of 2 blue so it doesn't matter much. If she's blue mafia that's also not really awful for us. She pretty much can't be town though.

[Llamarble]

As I've said, I'm almost completely sure DBE is scum and everyone else should be too.
Once we get to Lylo there will be few enough scumcombos possible (6) to analyze each possibility and find which team explains the game best; my finite reading time will be best spent then.

Does anyone think we should even consider lynching a player other than DBE?

[Llamarble]

Yes, we absolutely should massclaim. In case somebody has forgotten, I'm a VT.
Popcorn -> Jahudo.

[Llamarble]

The Fire & Ice setup has 1 doctor, 7 vts, 2 fire mafia, and 2 ice mafia.
Our minimum townpower is Cop, doctor, 8vts, 2 redscum and 2 bluescum. That's already a lot, even accounting for the framer & a mystery blue PR. So I think I can safely rule out Fishy/Locke scumteam, though I'll still check it when I go through the possibilities today.

[Llamarble]

Well Fishy going on V/LA with his vote on someone means that if there's no quickhammer over the weekend before he comes back either he or Locke are scum.

[Llamarble]

Huh, Fishy has played a FANTASTIC game if he's scum. I have decided I am definitely willing to lose if Fishy is scum.
Continuing reading.

[Llamarble]

All I got out of VCAs and minor perusal is that LL is still probably scum, Jahudo & DP are both the roles they say they are but of uncertain alignment.
WW seems to follow Jahudo on DBE a bit more which would make sense if they shared the result in their QT. And Flinter called Jahudo a "voice of reason."
But the 'Mega-vote' stuff looked kind of distancy to me too.

I haven't fully ruled out Jahudo/DP yet. But giving one scumteam protection and inspection roles vs the other getting just a framer seems very unlikely. Also they'd have hammered somebody by now. So yeah I guess I'll rule that out.

Anyway time to ISO the 3 of them to figure out if it's Jahudo/LL or DP/LL.

[Llamarble]

OOH!
LOOKS LIKE FLINTER CRUMBED GUNSMITH IN POST 4 OF HER ISO!
>> FLINTER (LL) /JAHUDO SCUMTEAM

GG

[Llamarble]

I'll keep reading anyway though.
Flinter calls Jahudo a voice of reason. WW barely mentions him. LL calls Jahudo town.
Jahudo's ISO was fully compatible with LLbuddy.
Major consistent decently well done distancing must be bought to justify LL/DPteam.
All three incarnations of DP had difficult to fake nonscumbuddyish interactions with the LL slot.
Not to mention Jahudotown would have tried harder to force his gunsmithguilty through.

I would be much more confortable with you if you weren't trying so hard to tell us you really aren't lurking and you actually tried to deduce things.

You are exactly the kind of person who would walk around at night with a gun, trying to kill innocent townies. Shudder.

I would be much more confortable with you if you weren't trying so hard to tell us you really aren't lurking and you actually tried to deduce things.

You are exactly the kind of person who would walk around at night with a gun, trying to kill innocent townies. Shudder.

I would be much more confortable with you if you weren't trying so hard to tell us you really aren't lurking and you actually tried to deduce things.

You are exactly the kind of person who would walk around at night with a gun, trying to kill innocent townies. Shudder.

WE GOT THIS. THIS GAME IS WON.
FLINTER, WHO IS NOW LL, _CLEARLY_ BREADCRUMBED GUNSMITH D1. TODAY JAHUDO CLAIMED GUNSMITH WITH PROVEN RESULTS.
THAT MEANS THEY SHARED RESULT/ROLE INFO IN THEIR QT AND THEN FORGOT FLINTER CRUMBED IT TOO.

VOTE LL THEN VOTE JAHUDO TOMORROW AFTER I AM NKED.

I am utterly confident Jahudo and Locke Lamora are the scumteam.

VOTE: Locke Lamora

[Llamarble]

Nice try, but Flinter said:
"You are exactly the kind of person who would

walk around at night with a gun

, trying to kill innocent townies. Shudder."
This is pretty clearly a gunsmith breadcrumb. Also everything else makes sense with the pairing too.

[Llamarble]

Uh, 7 townies + 1 doctor vs 2 pairs of goons is considered fair (fire+Ice setup)
So 8 townies a cop a doctor and a commuter vs framer/goon & Gunsmith/goon teams is absolutely fine.

Even weakened by the framer the cop is still better than useless, so adding that & a townie to the town is plenty of help.
There is definitely no need for another town cop-strength role.

And the point is she breadcrumbed what is supposedly _your_ role, so she could only have known about it via your scumQT.

Also the breadcrumb thing is pretty much hard proof, but the rest of your team's play absolutely makes sense as a scumpairing.
And you are the two independently scummiest players as well.

We've also at this point absolutely ruled out Jahudo/DPteam (no QH) and as I've said I will be stunned if Fishy is scum,
so lynching LL today is def. correct by POE too.

Kindly hammer your scumbuddy.

[Llamarble]

I'm saying you are a scum gunsmith. Flinter crumbed your power so either of you could claim it to avoid lynch and then prove it.
Or maybe she just got confused and misread her PM and thought she, not you, was the gunsmith.
I simply don't see that post coming from somebody who doesn't know there's a gunsmith.

Yos conveniently getting nightshot by your mafia faction the night after you learn he has a gun makes sense too, like everything else.

I'm confirmed town to you, and I'm voting Locke. You (hypothetically) are confirmed town to yourself. If Locke is town, then DP or Fishy must be his buddy. So DP will quickhammer sometime soon anyway if Locke isn't scum. So you may as well hammer yourself just to get on with things.

[Llamarble]

/Not a quickhammer

[Llamarble]

Locke flipping RB does change the situation substantially. Jahudo is probably not a scum gunsmith, though he could simply be not a gunsmith at all and have said something about gunsmiths pregame which caused Flinter to crumb it too. (maybe whoever got called first during MC was supposed to or something.

[Llamarble]

But DP said he went away the night Jahudo gunsmithed him, so Jahudoscum would have to have known his action would fail on DP? That doesn't make much sense. And if DBE promised to shoot DP that would have led to roleblock from Lockebuddy...

[Llamarble]

... This is hard. Both of you could easily be scum. And the fate of the world is on my shoulders.
Me being alive instead of fishy is interesting wifom; I'd think Jahudoscum would under no circumstances want me alive.

[Llamarble]

By the way DP, since I didn't hammer you I'm now confirmed town in your eyes and you should vote Jahudo.
And if you guys could make concise summaries of the most important reasons you can think of why you're town / the other is scum that would be helpful.

[Llamarble]

RESEARCH COMPLETE
VOTE: DavidParker

[Llamarble]

Yay!
Townalliancing is super powerful.
I was pretty seriously wrong on DBE & Bub this game.

[Llamarble]

Interesting night actions.
Nice protect by FF.
Was there a dead QT? Or a red one?