Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Fishythefish]

It's true!

I'll read up later today.

[Fishythefish]

Read, mostly. One of those reads that gets rather patchy towards the end, as my eyes complain that they've been open for far too many hours.

VOTE: ender

Prefer this to a DBE wagon, although that's by no means awful. More on both of these and some other stuff tomorrow, too tired tonight.

[Fishythefish]

ender (Llamarble)

1. I didn't like his early vote for FF. By then, I think FF looked much better, and I think ender's line of FF looking like he knew what he was doing isn't a credible line of thought. FF's story of being thrown by coming from another rings really true, and I don't see how you could interpret it as scummy. After unvoting, not voting again until it was pointed out might betray that he was thinking more about his image than about his target or what his vote will do. Which is a little bit scummy - townies think about both.

2. His post 150 - "feel free to lynch me to show Darla's scum". You see these kind of appeals, usually from noobtown. But this one really doesn't ring true. When you see this from town, it is from tunnelled town who have shouted themselves hoarse about the object of their tunnel, to no avail. ender, on the other hand, had given DBE a middling FOS, since when he had voted MW

for his reasons for voting DBE

. This doesn't add up. He explains with "I think if everyone thinks Darla is scum that it would be a wise choice to kill her, if i have to be killed for a scum to be taken out then i am willing for that to happen." That doesn't sit well with me. If he doesn't really think DBE is scum, there's just no way that can feel like a good trade from where he's standing.

3. After an absence, ender comes back and throws an accusation at bob, a popular target at the time, for no stated reason, and does not vote him. A move which scum might well have made (it's a shame we can't ask him why).

Darla

0. Really can't decide whether to abbreviate to Darla or DBE.

1. Play related to ender. First (64) meta says noob and Darla Fosses. Then (77) it seems ender is just a noob. Not very inconsistent - just can't decide how much to trust "ender looks scum all the time" meta. On the other hand, DBE says she feels this is a

reliable

meta - which doesn't square well with the change. DBE moves away from this stance when ender attacks him, and it feels like she's trying to influence his play when she accuses him of OMGUS. This happens rather fast, and afterwards DBE seems keen to justify it - she keeps emphasising that ender is

getting scummier

, not just that he is scummy. I don't think that's true, and more to the point I think the amount of emphasis DBE puts on this idea is unnatural. See posts 120 and 127 - ender's play is getting "progressively worse", his defences "weaker and more hostile-emotional", his behaviour has got "increasingly scummy" and his actions "progressively more scummy". Since Darla had posted this:

@DLG - My stance on ender is simply Meta. The other game we participated in he acted exactly the same, blatant scum moves, and ended up we killed our doc due to other factors which I don't want to elaborate on due to the game being on going. If you want to see it yourself it's Newbie #1045. I am not disregarding his actions but I know this is how he plays as town, and granted I haven't seen him as scum either,

I honestly just see him as a n00b and do not like his wagon. My guess is that we have at least one if not two scum on that wagon because he's made himself the perfect target for a scum push.

As for Fires I don't know, I just get a noob vibes off him. Between he and ender I'd be more inclined to do an ender lynch, but again, I would need something more blatant from him to make me think he wasn't actually town given the meta I have.

until 120 and 127, this is the sum total of all of ender's posts:

Knowing what I do about Ender's META coupled with what he's done so far here, I'd say he's suffering from uber-n00b syndrome even still. That or he really just is not good at this game. Either way, I was a bit unsure whether or not to take his actions as noob or super scummy and then he re-voted seemingly only out of pressure. Now I lean more towards scum.

FoS Ender.

You change your mind quickly, first it was "yeah that's his meta", not someone has said something about it quick mind change onto thinking i'm scum...

FoS DarlaBlueEyes.

For me, this post just does not justify DBE's change of stance, and her insistence that ender has got much worse. In 120 DBE also undermines her previously firm meta on ender.

Other points on DBE from others: early fence sitting on FF. Meh. Perhaps something scum do a little more, no stronger than that. Iso of Striker looking forced to try to build another wagon - yes. Definitely looks like she is positioning herself in case that takes off.

@DBE: comments on any of the above would be welcome, particularly any clarification about how your stance on ender changed. Also, you mentioned suspicions of Striker and MW. Where did they go?

BB

The way BB is already blaming other people on his wagon makes me feel he knows it's a mislynch (157 and 200) and is already trying to shift the blame. But I'm not quite sure whether that's something scum actually do or not. So, yeah. Not sure there's much point to this section.

@BB: if you dislike the votes of some of you fellow wagonners, does that change your opinion on DBE? Why would DBE's flip seriously implicate MW or bob? Consider that if bob/MW is town, they do not know the alignment of DBE. Town are just as capable of making crap cases against town and scum. If their cases are scummy, you don't need a flip to confirm that.

@brokenscraps: who is scum? Do you have any strong feelings about Darla or ender?

On the scale of day 1 certainty, I think it's quite likely exactly one of Darla and ender is scum. I think the ender wagon feels more like a scumwagon - difficult to get going, not so many easy votes on it. Reading the game thinking "the scum don't want ender lynched" feels better than reading it thinking "the scum don't want Darla lynched". I think good reasons for voting ender have attracted remarkably little attention, which you wouldn't expect if the rival wagon was on scum. So I'm leaning ender, and my vote stays there.

[Fishythefish]

@fishy: I knew you'd replace in strong, that's good to see in this game. Do you have a strong opinion about bobsnox yet? He's been the second or third wagon most of the day.

I read bob fairly thoroughly, since he's a popular target. I don't remember what I concluded, but I know it wasn't overwhelming. I'll go through the arguments more carefully and actually comment on them (some time this weekend).

[Fishythefish]

@fishy: I knew you'd replace in strong, that's good to see in this game. Do you have a strong opinion about bobsnox yet? He's been the second or third wagon most of the day.

I read bob fairly thoroughly, since he's a popular target. I don't remember what I concluded, but I know it wasn't overwhelming. I'll go through the arguments more carefully and actually comment on them (some time this weekend).

Further to this, I'm certainly not up for a bob lynch as things stand. DBE and ender are both vastly superior candidates for the noose. Something I would like clarification on:

@bob: I know you've talked a lot about this already, but I'd like to know exactly what you hoped to achieve, or what else you were thinking, when you asked first Darla and then FF to lynch you/try to lynch you. I'm not quite clear on what reactions you hoped for or expected, and how those reactions would help you determine their alignment and/or persuade others of your cases.

I've got some comments on MW, but I think I'll leave them until he answers DLG. Which he should most definitely do.

[Fishythefish]

UNVOTE:
I'm sure I don't want a claim or a lynch until I've given this game a look with an eye more awake and more sober than either of mine are right now.

[Fishythefish]

Noone hammer Llamarble. From a skim, the last few pages are good stuff, and there is absolutely no excuse for cutting this day short. There is no urgency about this lynch, and the only reason for a hammer now is for scum to curtail discussion.

[Fishythefish]

I'm sure I don't want a claim or a lynch until I've given this game a look with an eye more awake and more sober than either of mine are right now.

You are the only player who lost their nerve when I insisted I would place the hammer. Were your eyes sleepy and drunk when you posted this?

ender (Llamarble)
1. I didn't like his early vote for FF. By then, I think FF looked much better, and I think ender's line of FF looking like he knew what he was doing isn't a credible line of thought. FF's story of being thrown by coming from another rings really true, and I don't see how you could interpret it as scummy. After unvoting, not voting again until it was pointed out might betray that he was thinking more about his image than about his target or what his vote will do. Which is a little bit scummy - townies think about both.

2. His post 150 - "feel free to lynch me to show Darla's scum". You see these kind of appeals, usually from noobtown. But this one really doesn't ring true. When you see this from town, it is from tunnelled town who have shouted themselves hoarse about the object of their tunnel, to no avail. ender, on the other hand, had given DBE a middling FOS, since when he had voted MW for his reasons for voting DBE. This doesn't add up. He explains with "I think if everyone thinks Darla is scum that it would be a wise choice to kill her, if i have to be killed for a scum to be taken out then i am willing for that to happen." That doesn't sit well with me. If he doesn't really think DBE is scum, there's just no way that can feel like a good trade from where he's standing.

3. After an absence, ender comes back and throws an accusation at bob, a popular target at the time, for no stated reason, and does not vote him. A move which scum might well have made (it's a shame we can't ask him why).
...
On the scale of day 1 certainty, I think it's quite likely exactly one of Darla and ender is scum. I think the ender wagon feels more like a scumwagon - difficult to get going, not so many easy votes on it. Reading the game thinking "the scum don't want ender lynched" feels better than reading it thinking "the scum don't want Darla lynched". I think good reasons for voting ender have attracted remarkably little attention, which you wouldn't expect if the rival wagon was on scum. So I'm leaning ender, and my vote stays there.

I saw my votee was at L-1, with a lot of posts and a LOT of votes since I'd last seen the game. I wasn't up for reading all that, so I unvoted. If you want to call that losing my nerve, that's just fine with me. As for the other quote - I meant every word of it. But a quickwagon on Llama is potentially

very

significant to my read on him (particularly given the last paragraph). I'd be a fool to ignore it.

This wagon feels wrong to me. Really wrong.

BB moves onto Llama for contradiction when Llama was clearly catching up. Weak. Very much not in keeping with any of his opinions through the game. From his posts up until Llama attacked him, you couldn't ever have guessed that BB was thinking about going after Llama. This change of stance is not at all convincing for me. Also, read post 339. It's a triumph of rhetoric that I really doubt BB actually believes:
1. Tries to undermine Llama because the latter writes in capitals. Painting your opponent as desperate scum is always easier than actually analysing their play.
2. Calls Llama's case on BB weak because it's built on the contradictions of Llama changing on DBE, and of disliking both DBE and BB. This is

incredibly

weak. First, he makes no attempt to address Llama's (entirely believable) claim that his reads changed while he was catching up. Second, Llama's contradiction, or lack of it, is

totally irrelevant

to his case on BB. It's totally valid to call both DBE and BB scummy, and be more certain about either than the other. Thirdly, BB simply doesn't bother to defend the actual points! Trying to discredit the attacker instead of defending yourself is a scummy way to go about things.
3. Accuses Llama of trying to speedlynch him! He is comparing

trying to build a wagon in a week

with

demanding claims and hammer

. These are clearly incomparable, and this is just BB trying to win an argument.
That's really what that whole post is about. BB is trying to win an argument. Not to defend himself, not to rebut Llama, but to get Llama lynched - and he's happy for truth to fall by the wayside to achieve that. It's a very scummy attitude.

DLG is massively trying to strongarm a Llama quicklynch. Very disturbing, considering Llama was his third option not long ago, and the others (DBE, MW) are possible lynches. Points he's since used against Llama:
- Saying he doesn't want to be quickhammered, and that people pushing that line are scummy.
- The contradiction (?) between Llama posting content and accusing people of trying to quicklynch him. Not sure I understand this, but that's what it says.
- Not having an entirely original case on BB.
- Saying he's "go back and look for the case on ender" when he's already mentioned ender.
- Accuses Llama of trying to stall the momentum of the town by asking for a couple of day.
- Changing mind during read of game.
- Llama basing an argument on BB knowing he was town. That's a line of argument used

all the time

. It's a common scumtell that scum know what flips are going to be, and going after Llama for using it is totally ridiculous.
These points are

awful

. DLG is trying to throw absolutely anything he can find at Llama.

Why would scum being going after Llama? Who would they be saving? Not DBE. The main options are MW and BB.

Llama's case on BB is ok:
- Weak vote on Darla. Doesn't look like a particularly scummy vote to me.
- I agree about identifying scum on his own wagon, although as I've said I'm not sure how reliable that is. I think it's a pretty unnatural thing for townies to do - what I can't make up my mind about is whether it's something scum would do often.
- Saying DBE is a good information lynch. Yes, I can see that's a way scum would push a wagon without having to commit too much to it.

VOTE: BB

To the town on Llama's wagon: I think you are feeling far too comfortable on that cosy wagon of yours. You've got some nice company, and you're having a lot of fun shooting Llama down. He's ranting, and looking rather desperate, and you have the warm glow of being in a majority. There seems to be a bit of a consensus that Llama is scum. This is

fun

.

But none of that means he's scum. Read his posts. Read them thinking "would this make sense if he's town"? Read the posts against him. Read them thinking "is this

really

a fair point against him"? It's all too easy to see the arguments that reinforce your opinions, and not question them enough. I think there are some pretty terrible arguments going around against Llama right now.

Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps he's scum. But the last few pages do not look that way at all. Llama is reacting very much like I'd expect town to here, and his wagon is the scummiest thing we've seen in the game so far. Don't be a part of it.

[Fishythefish]

To be clear, my BB vote is based entirely on his recent play on Llama. The points from before that are minor in comparison.

[Fishythefish]

Noone hammer Llamarble. From a skim, the last few pages are good stuff, and there is absolutely no excuse for cutting this day short. There is no urgency about this lynch, and the only reason for a hammer now is for scum to curtail discussion.

Meh. I don't like this kind of stalling. If you don't think Llamarble is scum, that's fine, but if you do, extending the day just to get "more discussion in" is useless, and is more likely to make a good bandwagon stall out and die then anything else. There's no reason that every day has to go all the way to the deadline just because we can; it's not especially helpful to the town to drag out a day once we know who we're going to lynch, and once that person's been given a chance to claim.

That was stalling while I did some serious reading. I wanted it strongly worded so I could definitely get that done. Having done that, I'm totally unconvinced that Llama is scum, and I want the people on the Llama wagon to have every chance to reconsider their position. Did you read my next post?

Fishythefish - if we lynch Llamarble today and he flips Vanilla Townie, then you have some good targets for the lynch tomorrow. Right now you're just killing a darn good bandwagon.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good if and only if they are on scum. If Llamarble flips Vanilla Townie - which I think he will - this day is a

failure

. The information from his lynch is not nearly enough to make up for lynching town. I have some good targets for the lynch

now

, based on this terrible bandwagon, and I don't feel the need to wait until the mod confirms that it's wrong as well as terrible.

What do you think of BB and DLG's parts in this bandwagon (see my previous post)? Same question to everyone.

[Fishythefish]

Damn, lost this post.
@DLG:
Re: "strongarming". You're quite right - I picked that term up from a post of BB's and it's the wrong one. Doesn't change the points; you're pushing a wagon very hard for very poor reasons, and trying to get a lynch quickly.

Re: "quicklynching". It's not about how much content Llama has produced, it's about how much he's currently producing, and what's happening. Here's why I think it's bad for you to threaten to hammer: even if Llama were equal with DBE and MW, you should want to firm up your reads on all of them, particularly when the others are possible lynches. It's not natural to just go after one candidate and threaten to lynch him immediately.

Re: BBscum -/> Llamatown. Quite right, actually, I have been making that assumption and it's a bad one. It doesn't change all that much. A terrible wagon does make Llama more likely town, and BB's attacks are still incredibly scummy. You don't address my actual point here. Llama said BB was scum for knowing Llama was town. You said that makes no sense because BB wouldn't know that. But scum

do

assume other people are town, and it's common to use that as a scumtell. I was criticising your point against Llama.

After all, by that reasoning, you must be scum for attacking and classifying that same slot as scum when ender241 was playing.

Your stance is confusing me. You replaced in, found a convenient spot to place your vote, then got very involved once the slot you voted was about to be lynched. Why weren't you pushing Bub Bidderskins as scum earlier instead of parking your vote on this slot?

I don't understand the first sentence here. I don't see how any of my reasoning says that.

I replaced in, and decided who I thought was scummy. When I came back to see a terrible bandwagon on one of those people, I decided the bandwagon was worse than the person it was on. I can hardly believe you are actually asking why I didn't push BB as scum earlier - it's totally obvious. BB's scummy actions came

after

my original vote.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good if and only if they are on scum. If Llamarble flips Vanilla Townie - which I think he will - this day is a

failure

. The information from his lynch is not nearly enough to make up for lynching town.

This is tripe.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good. Period. No qualification needed.
We get it, already. You flip-flopped on your read of that slot. That doesn't mean everyone else did, also.
A "

failure

"? Really? Can you say Appeal to Fear? No townie is ever 100% sure that they are lynching scum. Lynches advance the knowledge available to town, regardless of the alignment of the player lynched. Lynching scum is always better than lynching town, but lynching town is nothing near to

failure

on Day 1.

Are we only supposed to overcome the fear of mislynching if you lead us to the lynch? Or, can we use our own reads and minds to get there?

There's no appeal to fear here. I was saying to bob that what we need to do is lynch scum, and nothing else. He seems to think that the information content from this lynch is comparably important to the result. A bandwagon on town at this stage of the day is

bad

if we can lynch scum instead. We have a whole week, and someone being at L-1 is a very poor reason to lynch them. bob seems content with lynching Llama and seeing the outcome, and I think he should be thinking harder about the situation. Obviously I expect people to use their own reads and minds to make their votes, but equally obviously right now I've got a fairly strong opinion I want people to agree with.

You haven't defended any of your points on Llama.

@bob: I was quite sure about Llamatown, but as I say above that's a little off. What I'm now pretty sure of is that the recent wagon is scumdriven, which certainly reflects well on Llama. BB looks

terrible

from this wagon, and the recent points against Llama are generally pretty awful. That makes BB a better lynch than Llama.

@FF: quite right that I forgot about MW (as you may have noticed, I got a bit distracted). I'll do a full post on that later tonight. The main point wass a fairly strong MW-ender/Llama link, which was more interesting when I wanted a Llama lynch.

BB claims to have voted Llama based on a BB/Llama scumteam. This doesn't explain why move from BB to Llama, and it doesn't explain trying to justify that move with some extremely bad points and posts.

[Fishythefish]

@bob: DLG accused me of trying to direct the lynch, and turn the town into a flock of mindless sheep. I simply said the obvious thing - I want to persuade people of what I believe to be true.

What do you think of BB's and DLG's cases on Llama?

[Fishythefish]

I have no idea. I probably do tend to assume one (in my head this game feels like a mini), but that assumption is not necessarily good. It doesn't really matter for anything I'm saying. If there are scum driving Llama's wagon, that makes it more likely he's town either way - then there is at least one scumteam he can't be on. And BB is much scummier than Llama at the moment, which is really the crucial point. Whether Llama is townish, null or mildly scummy isn't that important.

[Fishythefish]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Fishythefish]

Eliminating half the ways a player could be scum makes it half as likely they are scum. In fact, not being scum with BB eliminates

more

than that - because there's a decent chance there's only one team. It's crazy to say that just because there might be two scumteams, one player being scum can't make another

more likely

to be town.

Even if I knew there were two scumteams, so what? BB is scummier than Llama. Nothing I'm saying relies on there only being one scumteam.

What do you think of BB's and DLG's cases on Llama?

[Fishythefish]

I will do what you ask on ender, later today.

Where in Llama's posting does he say that attacking townies is scummy? To be clear, that is not a position I support in any way. Llama being town is neither here nor there to this terrible wagon.

@Jahudo: have you looked in detail at the cases of BB and DLG on Llama? What do you think of them?

[Fishythefish]

@Nik: I would gladly lynch DLG.

[Fishythefish]

I don't see it is any more likely than a BB lynch, and I'm up for either about equally.

[Fishythefish]

Please explain how my play is "antitown". AFAIC, my play is antitown if and only if Llamarble is scum. It is not automatically antitown to try and derail a lynch that looks like happening. Cohesiveness =/= scum lynch. I saw a consensus I strongly disliked the origins of, so I went after it.

@DLG: I made a post where I criticised every (or nearly every, not sure) reason for which you have voted Llama. You have made no response.

[Fishythefish]

Please explain how my play is "antitown". AFAIC, my play is antitown if and only if Llamarble is scum. It is not automatically antitown to try and derail a lynch that looks like happening. Cohesiveness =/= scum lynch. I saw a consensus I strongly disliked the origins of, so I went after it.

@DLG: I made a post where I criticised every (or nearly every, not sure) reason for which you have voted Llama. You have made no response.

Your play looks scummy if Llamarble is scum. Your play is anti-town for helping to destroy what consensus had been achieved. This is particularly true because

your vote was part of the origins of that consensus

. I never said cohesiveness is equivalent to lynching scum. You saw a consensus that you disliked the target of. At best, you could claim to dislike the late comers to that wagon, not the origins.

I responded to the points I wanted to. I didn't respond to the others because I was unwilling to engage in a debate designed solely to distract attention from the main focus, Llamarble. Classifying what was going on as you versus me perfectly illustrates the point. It was me versus Llamarble if it was anything. Who appointed you Johnnie Cochran to Llamarble's O.J. Simpson?

@ Jahudo
Are you willing to share who you are willing to see lynched, then? By process of elimination, I'm guessing Bub Bidderskins or me.

There is

nothing

antitown about helping destroy a bad consensus - and I think this might well be a bad consensus. By "origins" I really meant "reasons". It is indeed the late comers I dislike.

When I see terribad arguments, I will attack them and call them scummy, whoever they are on. Llama was making a lot of the points I was making, but he was rather overwhelmed and was looking a bit desperate. I thought that weighing in was necessary, so that people could see how disastrous the arguments against Llama really were. If that makes me his lawyer, then that's fine with me.

If Llama is scum, obviously there is lots of scum motivation for my recent play. We'll cross that bridge if it turns out to exist.

[Fishythefish]

Things for me to definitely do tonight: talk about MW. This is long overdue, and there's no good reason for that.

[Fishythefish]

Thoughts on MW and MW's wagon:

- Didn't like MW's very first content post (iso 1), fencesitting on FF. However, in iso 2 he comes down on the right side of the fence, saying that FF's explanation was believable.
- MW points to some ender behaviour, but calls it null. Feels potentially like coaching a scumbuddy. Yos jumps on the same points and attacks ender, and MW goes after Yos. Not sure about this. It feels good - like MW believes in his reads. On the other hand, it could be a chainsaw defence. Not scummy for me, but does contribute to an ender-MW link.
- This bothered me, after Yos called ender scummy:

I totally agree with you saying Ender is more bothered with his apperence, but i see that more of a newbie act than scum. I suspose we will eventually find out whos right.

Doesn't really feel like a townie attitude - if you agree with someone about some facts, but not the conclusion, then it's not natural to be content to find out later. I'd have expected MWtown to continue the argument, particularly as he had found Yos's side of it scummy. Again, fits pretty well with an ender-MW team.
- Phone business is totally null for me.
- The lie. I've been waiting for MW to clarify this (just in case I was wrong and MWscum had genuinely slipped) my reading of that post was definitely as sarcastic.

Wagons, in order of how much I like them:
BB = DLG (horrible jumps onto Llama)
DBE (nothing much has changed - still pretty scummy)
Llama (much better information lynch than others, and could definitely be scum if we are in multiscum or I'm wrong about BB/DLG)
MW (really only scummy if Llama is scum)

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DLG

[Fishythefish]

Currently there are 3 ways for Llama to be scum -
- There is one scumteam, and Llama is on it.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam A.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam B.

Suppose

the mod came down and declared in a voice of thunder that BB was scum, and Llama was not his partner. Then two of these three possibilities disappear. Just because it is

still possible

that Llama is scum, doesn't mean that it is

just as likely

as it was before.

In the case of multiscum, to put it one more way: let's go with the (probably good) assumption that if there are two scumteams, they each have two scum on them. Under the same assumption (BBscum, Llama not scum with him), Llama has had an interaction with a scumbag that rules out his being partners with that scumbag. A town player has 4 opportunities to have such an interaction (one for each scumbag), and a scum player has 2 (one for each scumbag not on his team).

I understand that this kind of thing is not obvious, and some of the reasoning (particularly in the multiscum case) is not particularly "intuitive". It is right, though. I withdraw calling your statements crazy, actually - that's totally unfair of me.

I agree that people doing scumhunting is not a towntell in multiscum. I don't believe that has entered the argument.

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,
VOTE: Llama

[Fishythefish]

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,
VOTE: Llama

I cannot even begin to explain how many things are wrong with this.
Somebody vig this guy.

There is no way I'm getting a lynch on my preferred targets. I'm voting for the most scummy player I feel is realistic to get lynched. I don't particularly like it, but it's better than any of my other options. I don't see your problem.

@DLG: I did miss SK. That's totally irrelevant. Point is that ruling out options for Llama to be scum makes him less likely scum. brokenscraps is right about the statistics, but that's even more irrelevant.

@scraps: I don't like either of these wagons. I like the Llama one a little more.

[Fishythefish]

Why is that?

VOTE: DLG

Extremely poor vote on Llama, which he refused to defend. Cannot be explained by tunnelling; he never had Llama as the most scummy player. See my ISO for details; this guy is scum.

[Fishythefish]

Are you given to running entirely misrepresented cases against other players as town?

What, specifically, are you trying to claim I didn't defend? I demand some evidence or a retraction of this crap.

I never did have the ender241/Llamarble slot as the most scummy. I did have that slot in my top 3 scum reads. I was willing to hammer that slot, and even voted to move it back to L-1 when Nikanor unvoted to keep positive pressure on a scum read. Since my play was the consistent one, and yours most closely resembles a yo-yo, what is scummy about mine?

I'm not ignoring this, I just don't have time to respond now. It's going to need quotes. I think it's pretty clear if people read my ISO.

Fishythefish is the player with a terribly unjustified vote on Llamarble at the end of Day 1. I cannot imagine a town motivation for selling all out to defend another player, then being willing to be part of potentially lynching that slot. Add in the asinine case against me for good measure.

Didn't like MW's very first content post (iso 1), fencesitting on FF. However, in iso 2 he comes down on the right side of the fence, saying that FF's explanation was believable.

How did you know MoreWhisky's conclusion was correct regarding FinalFires? We all know that, now. But, at that point, how did you know?

VOTE: Fishythefish

I voted Llama because I still felt there was a decent chance of his being scum - particularly after you noted that BBscum -/> Llamatown. Attacking the people going after him does not mean I have a strong town read on him. By "the right side of the fence" I mean that MW's read of FF's posting was very much the same as mine; FF's posting about being from another site rung very true.

[Fishythefish]

I kind of assumed that if you believe in your case, you’ll offer a response to someone calling it uniformly rubbish.

It is simply untrue that you didn’t defend any of your points against Llama. My apologies. You did only defend 2 out of 7. 3 out of 8 if you count pointing out my misuse of the word “strongarm”.

Of your points on Llama I attacked in 365, you defended the second – saying why lynching Llama quickly wouldn’t be a quicklynch (I massively disagree), and the last – although see below.

So, here’s what I see in your play, going through your iso:
[Throughout, the lynches you favour are MW, DBE, and Llama, and at some stage also me. Llama is never top of that list]

33 – case against Llama. I’ve argued why the case is terrible, but let’s go on a little about the points you’ve defended.

1. Quicklynch. You called for someone to hammer Llama when he was clearly producing content, and discussion was very much ongoing. I call that a quicklynch. Your stance seems to be that it isn’t possible to quicklynch someone who has produced some content, which I find ridiculous. If that’s not what you mean in post 36, please clarify.
2. Point on BB. Here is my take on this conversation:
Llama: BB knows I’m town. That makes him scum.
DLG: Since BB cannot know you are town, that’s a false argument.
Fishy: Wha?
Knowing people are town is used

all the time

as a scumtell. It’s an extraordinary thing to argue against, and really looks like you are more interested in attacking Llama than what’s actually true. Your later post saying BBscum -/> Llamatown, while true, does not actually address this.

36 – you asked me why I hadn’t attacked BB earlier. The answer was obvious enough – everything he’d done that I found scummy had only just happened. This question makes me think you didn’t really care what I was saying – someone who had thought about my posting could hardly make that error.

Actually, it gets much better after that, which I’ll admit I hadn’t realised. You argue with me a lot, and I haven’t changed my opinion on anything we argued about, but it’s not in the slightest bit scummy.

So, to summarise. The case on Llama was awful, and in the follow up I really didn’t get the feeling you were trying to determine Llama’s alignment. The only townie picture it fits well for me is “really tunneled town”, and it fits really badly with someone who should be trying to decide between their three top scumreads.

Hmmm. I thought you and BB made terrible moves onto Llama, and were both likely scum. You argued with me, BB didn’t. Your arguments read ok. I’m voting the wrong guy.

UNVOTE: VOTE: BB

[Fishythefish]

That quick switch came because I noticed a looming deadline. It had been in the back of my mind, but I wasn't thinking about it when I voted DLG.

[Fishythefish]

1. Quicklynch. You called for someone to hammer Llama when he was clearly producing content, and discussion was very much ongoing. I call that a quicklynch. Your stance seems to be that it isn’t possible to quicklynch someone who has produced some content, which I find ridiculous. If that’s not what you mean in post 36, please clarify.

The idea that a Llama wagon was a "quicklynch", at a point where most of us had already been wagoning that player slot for something like two weeks, when he'd had a chance to respond to everything, and when he had claimed, is kind of crazy.

In fact, if we had lynched him then, like we should have, we wouldn't have had the kind of random deadline bullshit that we did that prevented him from being lynched for no good reason and lynched Whiskey instead. That's why you don't always wait right up until the deadline;

when you have a good case on someone, you give them a chance to respond, you give them a chance to claim if they want to, and then you lynch them, you don't stall for another few weeks.

Fishy's overall posting here is bizzare. He was willing to lynch Llama at deadline, after defending him for days, but is upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline when DLG had clearly suspected Llama for most of the game? However, we can't let ourselves get sidetracked again today here.

Vote:llarmable

After we lynch him, like we should have yesterday, and he flips scum, then we'll deal with Fishy's crazy attempts to distract from the wagon again; Fishy managed to derail the Llamarble wagon yesterday with a lot of frantic handwaving, I am not willing to let him do it again today.

Bolded mine. Read when DLG asked someone to hammer Llama (344). Llama was quite clearly in the course of responding to the case on him - the argument hadn't settled nearly enough for a lynch to be a good idea. He also hadn't claimed. We had a long time before deadline. It was totally premature.

I'm not in the slightest bit upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline (not that he was - he voted MW). That is a total misrep. I'm upset that he was willing to lynch Llama when
1. Llama wasn't his top suspect
2. Llama was actively responding to the case on him
3. We had some days until deadline.
(The point of 1. is that it makes 2. and 3. important).

@DLG: with the opinions in the game, there was zero chance of a DLG or BB lynch in the time we had. Llama was the best option who might get lynched. Denying that would have done no good.

Re: why only you and BB. Your votes were the worst. BB has the added bonus that he's the obvious reason scum would want to go after Llama (Llama was attacking him).

[Fishythefish]

You are upset about how DLG voted for some who wasn't his top suspect, but what do you think of Llamarble voting for someone he had a "town read" on?

First, there is more context than that on DLG. I am upset that DLG tried to get the lynch of someone who wasn't his top suspect, while that player was clearly doing things that were relevant to a read on him, and the other top suspects of DLG were eminently lynchable. These are all important.

I have no problem with anyone voting at deadline to save their own skin. I don't see that Llama did anything else.

@DLG: there is no contradiction between thinking it's bad to lynch someone when there is relevant stuff happening a week before deadline, and voting for the best of two bad options with no other lynch possible. I was trying to shift the lynch in what I thought was the best realistic direction.

From a theory standpoint, I think the benefit of lynching scum massively outweighs any other benefit you can have from a day. If I think something increases the town's chance of lynching scum, I will do it. I agree that we ended up in the worst of both worlds in this case, but I believe that if I consistently attack bandwagons I see as scummy - however popular they are - in the long term I'll do better (although in this case I've obviously either totally misread the situation or royally screwed up in my posting, since everyone suspects me).

Here's why I find you wanting Llama's lynch bad. In your position, I'd see Llama replace into the game, and start producing content. I would believe that there was at least a decent chance that this would affect my read on him significantly, and I'd want to hear what he had to say, so I could better decide between the options for the day. It's a bizarre situation to try and rush the day in - it was still very possible that one of your three similarly strong reads would become the clear favourite or fade away. From the point of view of trying to get a scumlynch, it just doesn't add up. The weight you say you put on having a united town does make it make more sense, I suppose.

I really feel like I'm drawing more flak here than my posts warrant. If there's anything I can explain to anyone, please do ask. Or just say what you find scummy.

@Yos: I feel your post 533 is misreps my positions quite badly - see 554. I'd like a response to that.

[Fishythefish]

Llama's play has become rather deranged. But when DLG voted him yesterday (344), and asked someone else to hammer, it was not. Really, go back to that point, and read what Llama was saying at the time, and note the ludicrous speed with which his wagon had built. Imagine Llama is one of your competing top suspects. I just don't see that you would want the day over.

The things I find scummiest in the game are some cases on Llama. It's pretty much inevitable that I'm going to look like I'm defending Llama.

Right. I'm not going to post any more on these matters, until people start voting for me tomorrow. For people who actually give a fuck what I've said, I've said it all many times now. I'm making zero impression on anyone, and I don't see that changing. Definitely time to start thinking about other things.

Bleh.

[Fishythefish]

That's some good replacing in.

I'm V/LA this weekend, Friday until Monday. I hope to do some reading get a decent post in tomorrow summarising where I am with the game.

[Fishythefish]

I'm feeling more optimistic about this game than I have in a long while.

@Fate: most of your case on Yos is that his reads on Llama and myself are not up to scratch, and with Yos's weighty burden of proficiency that doesn't ring true. I totally agree with you, but since his thoughts have been shared by the vast majority of the players I haven't been thinking of that as a scumtell. Having an outside perspective that actually agrees with me changes that somewhat.

I find it unconvincing that Yos simply labels all who argue with his view on Llama as scum. That seems far too simplistic - it's just totally unrealistic that there is a Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam whose strategy is to spout bullshit whenever Llama gets close to a lynch, and I struggle to believe Yos thought there was.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Yos

@mod: I'm V/LA from tomorrow until Monday

(I forgot to bold that before).

[Fishythefish]

Oh ok, "I dont haz a read on fate"

You had NO READ on me after my giant mass of a stream of thought catchup post?

At first, i thought you looked town-ish. Then you suddenly started defending an obvscum for no good reason, in a way that was disturbingly reminiscent of how Fishy derailed the wagon earlier, and I was starting to wonder if you were on the Llama-Fishy team.

BTW I COULD TOTALLY FAKE THAT AS SCUM.

Neah. You wouldn't commit yourself this deeply to a defense if you were Llama's scum buddy. If you had just kept being vague and spouting meaningless platitudes, though, you'd move up my suspect list pretty fast, especally if both LLama and Fishy flip scum.

Yeah, so I wasn't reading hard enough here, and missed the fact that this was hypothetical. Still, this says that at some stage you found Llama/Fishy/Fate likely - which I really doubt.

Looking for connections to the scum you think you've caught is ok - although there's no real reason to do it today. But I think the connections you were drawing here are odd ones - I can't see you actually thinking "if Llama and Fishy flip scum, Fate is a likely buddy". Aside from the fact that it's looking ludicrously far into the future, it's just not a likely conclusion from this situation.

[Fishythefish]

I am very confident Llama is town. His reaction to Fate replacing in rings very true, since it's pretty much exactly what I feel.

@Yos: give me one action I've made that has scum motivation if Llama is town. I think you know Llama is town, and after Fate dies tonight you want to go after me. Well, if you're going to reposition from Llama/Fishy to Fishy before your mislynch has even flipped, you're damn well going to back it up with some manufactured evidence.

I don't think my play has been bizarre, but the totality of your posting on me is "bizarre play designed to save Llama". Now, if Llama flips town you either have to claim that bizarre play is a scumtell, or that I had some reason to step in at L-1 and work my ass off trying to save a townie, while making enemies aplenty. Which is it to be?

Chainsaw defence is exactly what I've been doing. I see a wagon with awful votes. I attack those votes. Your analysis of my DLG case was deeply flawed; you failed to comment on the major point that his case on Llama was awful, and you claimed I was attacking him for trying to achieve a lynch on one of his scumreads - a simplification to the point of misrep. To say I moved on to BB is to ignore that I've always seriously disliked his vote.

What are my contradictions, and what are my odd priorities, and

why do you believe they make me scum

?

[Fishythefish]

I just don't think this is coming from Yos considering my posts and trying to determine my alignment. Things that Yostown wouldn't believe about me:
- That my vote for Bub was totally unmotivated. It's all there for anyone who actually read me; when I first attacked the wagon on Llama, DLG and BB were the people I found worst, and about equally so. DLG argued with me a lot, whereas BB didn't respond. When I took a step back, BB's reaction was way scummier.
- That setting up future mislynches is a plausible reason to be defending Llama. Is hypoFishyscum really in a better position than when I started going at the people on the Llama wagon yesterday? More to the point, was he ever going to be?
- That it's more likely I plan to NK Fate (think how

idiotic

that would be), and let that slip, than that I believe the Fate is going to be killed - which is 100% obvious from what I believe about the game.
- The assessment of my DLG case - this just sucks. See earlier posts.
- Just generally, that it's unlikely I'm simply convinced town - particularly if Llama is town.
Burden of proficiency is important to these. I don't think Yos's claimed picture of me makes sense, and I don't think that's coming from townYos. I don't think he would have misread everything I've done in the game so badly.

Things I don't think he'd believe about Llama:
- When under pressure on day 1, Llama just flooded the thread; all he cared about was saving his own skin. Read Llama prior to Yos's 463. This just isn't a fair assessment. Llama did post a lot. But it made sense, and he had been wagonned to L-1 while replacing in.
- Saving your own skin at deadline is a scumtell.

By the way, from Yos's last post:
- "The flip you made on whiskey after defending him all day, in a situation where we could have lynched Llama instead," - what does this mean?

On my move to Yos:
- Partly, it's that there is now a real possibility of this bandwagon going somewhere. Mostly, it's the way Fate's posting has affirmed my reads. When I first posted attacking the wagon on Llama, I fully expected Yos and Jahudo (players I know, and think can play this game) would agree with me. When they didn't, and noone else did either, that made me doubt what I'd been saying somewhat. To see Fate replace in, and echo what I've been thinking, makes me more confident in it, and makes me think that the players who didn't live up to my expectations are likely scum. It's also helpful that Llama's reaction to Fate's replacing in is something I really believe - he's either town or his reaction has been masterfully faked in a way that would appeal only to me. I think it's the former.

@Yos: a lot has been said about Llama, and a lot responded to. I think it would be helpful if you could get in one place all the reasons you find him scummy. Reading you, it's fairly unclear to me what is just you arguing with Llama and what you actually find scummy.

[Fishythefish]

Sure, you had said you suspected them both. The thing that looks suspicious is that after focusing on DLG for much of day 1 and then the start of day 2, you suddenly changed to BB, and from the timing it looks like you did it because you were being attacked for going after DLG. The reason you gave for the change ("DLG answered my questions and BB didn't") seems pretty thin, since the main reason you were going after DLG was that you didn't like the way he answered your questions. I think it's more likely that you changed tack because you realized it would be hard to mislynch DLG, and because you realized that continuing to try might get you lynched.

I realised that I'd found DLG scummy, and that lots of arguing with him had confirmed that suspicion for bad reasons. Surely that's something you've experienced? When I realised that I'd been suffering this confirmation bias, I moved on. I don't think the timing of that move coincides with a time I was taking more flak than usual, and I think it's pretty clear moving on to BB wasn't actually going to make me look better - all the same people disagreed with me for all the same reasons.

I can't imagine Fate is going to be killed. Assuming Fate is town, which he probably is, I'm sure the scum are going to leave him alive, because he's obviously going to keep tunneling me for no good reason for the all game here, and it's a huge distraction to the town. At the very least, they're going to leave him alive for 3 or 4 days until they manage to use him to get a Yos mislynch through, and then they'll probably try to lynch him for it.

Fair.

I do think it's unlikely you're simply convinced town, although obviously that becomes someone more probable if Llama flips town. Even if Llama is town, though, I still don't see town-Fishy completly giving up on real scumhunting for two days just in order to attack a series of fairly obvtown people because they suspect Llama.

I'm intrigued by this claim that I've been attacking fairly obvtown people. I don't think DLG, BB or you are obvtown, or anything close to it. Can you explain? Another thing - unless I've missed it, you've hardly if at all addressed the reasons I voted DLG or BB. What do you think of them? Why do they make you think I was attacking them because they suspected Llama, rather than because they voted Llama in a massively scummy way?

I never said that at all. Trying to save your own skin is obviously a null tell. On the other hand, pro-town people shouldn't use their vote as a club to try to save their own skin; they should defend themselves to the best of their ability, but they should also keep scumhunting and keep trying to find scum with their vote. Only scum should OMGUS and try to use their vote as a tool to get people off their wagon.

Doesn't mean that town never do that, of course, but they shouldn't, and that makes it a moderately effective scumtell.

Llama just didn't use his vote as a club to try to save his own skin. It was only when it was vote MW or die that he voted MW. Before that, his vote was on BB, and IMO that was totally reasonable.

When you voted Whiskey, two days before deadline, you had a choice. You could either have lynched Whiskey, who you were SURE was town and had been defending all day, or you still could have gotten a Llama lynch through. Either lynch was still probable at that point. Sure, it was close to deadline, but I don't get why you made that choice.

Do you mean this with Whiskey and Llama switched? If so, I was by no means sure Llama was town. MW wasn't scummy.

Re: if scum, you'd have cruised to a Llama lynch. Before Fate showed up, that's exactly what you were doing. Now, that option's gone.

My take on the case on Llama:
- ender was scummy.

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

Post 7 includes that vague attack as an aside before saying - and justifying - why the biggest opposing wagon is on town. Post 8 he does, indeed, attack Bub. Post 9 he makes rather specific accusations of FF, and they are not that FF voted for him; he accuses FF of knowing he is town and chaining lynches. Post 10 he wants to know - quite reasonably - how on earth DLG can go after Llama when he has a cast-iron certainty that MW is lying. In 11, 15 and 16 he's saying who he thinks looks suspect, never actually showing any interest in a non-BB lynch. I totally fail to see how any of this is calculated to defuse a bandwagon on him. What I see here is a player who has just replaced in, is very much in the process of forming their reads, and is being attacked from all sides. That situation is pretty much perfectly set up for some OMGUS and desperate posting, and none of this looks like a scumtell.

Re: Llama on Whisky. Llama changed his mind a lot on Whisky. I see zero reason why that would benefit him as scum. You say that he was trying to lynch Whisky while appearing to defend him - but with your head on the block, there's no scum motivation to risk getting lynched for an elaborate way to look a tiny bit better in the morning.

By way of explaining why I totally disagree with you Llama's switch to you, let me run through the narrative of my play in this game as it appears in my head:
1. I replace in; the existing bandwagons (ender, DBE) look pretty good - of them, ender's has attracted surprisingly little interest. I vote ender.
2. Llama replaced in, and attacks BB. He is voted by DLG, BB, others. DLG and BB make very poor cases, and BB's vote in particular fits poorly with his existing stances. I unvote (although I unvote just on the basis of the quick wagon, in fact).
3. I make a post in which I attack BB and DLG's part in the Llama wagon. I think this post is very reasonable, and expect to get some support for it - particularly from Yos and Jahudo - but receive none.
4. Day 1 and early day 2 - I continue saying how bad the votes I'm attacking are. I fight with DLG, mostly - BB declines to comment on much of what I'm saying.
5. At this point, I feel totally crap about the game. I have a firm opinion - that the Llama wagon is crap. But

noone

agrees with me, or even really sees where I'm coming from. I've rarely felt this isolated in a game. I'm worried that I'm wrong about Llama (which for one thing makes me an instalynch after he flips), or that I'm right but not able to convince people. I can't work out what I'm doing wrong.
6. Fate replaces in. In his catching up posts, it's clear he agrees with me on just about everything. This makes me feel much more confident in my positions. It also makes me much more willing to go after the competent players I feel have screwed up their Llama/me reads so badly. I'm immediately convinced Fate is town, and happy to follow him onto Yos.

Your claim that that made you "more confident" is pretty pathetic. I'm sure it seems clear to any impartial observer that what really changed is that not the strength of the case on me or on bud, but that you think you can get me lynched now; it's a pure tactical move, with no real scumhunting involved. If you had stuck to your guns and kept trying to lynch Bud, your earlier suspect, you'd look a lot more town to me right now.

What Llama has been saying sounds like he is in the precise same situation as me. It would be an odd thing to think to fake as scum - you wouldn't become more confident about anything when you heard Fate, as you'd already know the answers. Llama's reaction to Fate replacing in is totally town - I know because I'm in the precise same position.

So. That's why I think Llama is town.

As for why Yos is scum; he's got the situation more wrong than I believe Yostown would. I don't think this situation is as hard to read as all that. I'm usually pretty good at knowing how I look in a game, and I don't think Yos's picture of me squares with reality. He doesn't seem curious about my alignment in the slightest - I've never got the impression that there's more he wants to know about my motivations or stances. All his comments on the game serve a single agenda, and this game is just not that simple.

Other people - BB and DBE are still knocking around as scumreads. Jahudo is also right up there. Another player I'd expect to have a better picture of the game. If Yos

is

scum, then scum had massive motivation to try to get Llama lynched asap after Fate replaced in. Fits well with DBE, and with Jahudo. If Yos isn't scum, and Llama also isn't, then the recent passage of play has all the major players town. In which case reads are much harder to come by. Here I'd be most confident in BB, probably.

@BB: why is Llama's late vote on MW something that Llamascum would do more than Llamatown? I think your "you voted for someone you called town" reason for voting Llama is just absurd.
You said that the townies on Llama's wagon "chickened out", and that's why he didn't die day one. What makes you think the people who moved off him are town? I'd have thought they looked like at least reasonably likely Llamabuddies.
Things you never explained to my satisfaction:
- Why you were so willing to drop your strong day 1 scumread on DBE so quickly - and why you never mentioned it again.
- It's a while ago now, but I didn't believe anything you say in 339. It just doesn't have anything that makes Llama scum.
- Your original vote on Llama was based on his "contradictions" - while he was quite clearly still reading the game. This weak reasoning makes it worse that you were happy to abandon your DBE wagon.

Overall, I feel confused about where your very strong Llamascum read comes from - I don't see what in your posting justifies it. You seem to mention a lot that Llama didn't get lynched yesterday, despite being at L-1. Is this a scumtell for you? Your arguments seem circular - Llama is scum because Fishy and Llama derailed the Llama wagon because Llama is scum.

@brokenscraps: you need to get your reads in order here. This day is looking extremely close, and you need to make a decision about who you'd rather have lynched.

[Fishythefish]

1. Tries to undermine Llama because the latter writes in capitals. Painting your opponent as desperate scum is always easier than actually analysing their play.
2. Calls Llama's case on BB weak because it's built on the contradictions of Llama changing on DBE, and of disliking both DBE and BB. This is incredibly weak. First, he makes no attempt to address Llama's (entirely believable) claim that his reads changed while he was catching up. Second, Llama's contradiction, or lack of it, is totally irrelevant to his case on BB. It's totally valid to call both DBE and BB scummy, and be more certain about either than the other. Thirdly, BB simply doesn't bother to defend the actual points! Trying to discredit the attacker instead of defending yourself is a scummy way to go about things.

Both of those points are incredibly weak, and fairly obviously so. Llama's insistence on doing MASSIVE ALL CAPS ANGRY OMGUS RESPONSES to people attacking him was actually scummy; it was a sign that he was desperate scum, and a pretty clear appeal to emotion.

Firstly, it's kind of odd to quote the first two points of a three point lynch. At this stage, Llama had written a few sentences in CAPS. I think that anger is a terrible scumtell; it's only a sign that's he's desperate scum if you're scraping around for signs that Llama is scum. The second point you don't actually say anything about. It's 100% valid. BB's criticisms of Llama's case here are terrible.

I'm not talking about the MW vote. I'm talking about how he's consistently used his vote as a tool to attack people just because he doesn't like that they've been attacking him. He's gone through and systematically attacked everyone voting for him, just like you've gone through and systematically attacked everyone voting for him. The only person who wanted to lynch Llama that the two of you guys realized you couldn't attack yesterday was Fires (after a quick, aborted effort by Llama when he realized it wouldn't work) , but he conveniently turned up dead instead.

Llama has seriously gone after exactly two people; I have gone after three. You just haven't shown that Llama's play was designed to stop his lynch.

If you're attacking me just because you think I'm wrong, then when we lynch Llama and he flips scum, proving that I was right all along, how are you going to respond?

If we lynch Llama and he flips scum, my perspective on this game is 100% wrong. I will need to rethink everything. I don't think that's going to happen.

Massive preview edit: oooooooh! That's exciting.

UNVOTE:

[Fishythefish]

@Fate: why did you post this:

Role related reasons. Marble is town. No more will be said.

[Fishythefish]

Well, Yos is blatantly telling the truth about the track (which is fairly null, alignmentwise).

Two scenarios:
- Fate scum. Here, he was planning to stick his neck out all the way to avoid a Llama lynch. When Yos called him on not being the cop, he tried to confuse the issue, but Llama decided not to back him up. I struggle to believe this without Llamascum, and that scumteam really doesn't fit with the rest of the game to me. With Llamascum, it's still an enormous risk.
- Fate town. Here, he was so sure about Llama being a mislynch that he was prepared to lie about his role to avoid it. This is horrible. If there is any experienced player I'd believe it from, it's Fate, but the odds are so bad - bottom line is, what if there's a real cop? You're mislynched, the cop's shot, no information comes of it, and you're the cause of an autoloss.

So. Neither of those seems at all likely to me. Which is obviously a problem, as one of them is true.

I won't be coming back to the Yos wagon today. Pondering the situation atm.

[Fishythefish]

OK, definitely going with Llama and Fate still town.

*cheers as DLG emerges from his tunnel*

I'm thinking about what I think of this DBE wagon. Ages ago, I had a bit of a scumread on her, and she's made very little impression since. I think I much prefer a

VOTE: BB

For most of day 1, BB voted DBE, and seemed happy with that vote, although he was already saying who the scum on it were. Llama attacked him, and he immediately dropped her DBE vote, never to be mentioned again, to go after Llama with a pretty shocking case. His arguments with Llama don't read like he is remotely interested in finding out his alignment, and he hasn't commented at all on DBE since he unvoted her, despite DBE's recent wagon. Made a scumslip in saying that it was the

townies

on Llama's wagon who chickened out day 1.

[Fishythefish]

Fun. After much effort, Fate finally succeeds in defusing the Llamawagon only when his fakeclaim is exposed.

[Fishythefish]

I'm around, but I don't have much to say right now. Waiting for BB to respond. And DBE, but no pressure - I hope things work out ok.

[Fishythefish]

Prodded! Sorry, weekends are bad sometimes.

I happy that my vote's in the best place for today. Nothing about BB makes me think he's town at all. His moves onto the Llama and Fate wagons yesterday and today were both timed strategically for scum, and I don't find the reasoning for either convincing. I like this wagon, and the company is pretty shiny as well - Llama and Fate are town, and none of my scumreads are on it. Let's lynch us some BBscum.

[Fishythefish]

Have I really not posted here for three days? Sorry. I'll post something other than this nonsense tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

I think the Fate wagon is a disaster of an idea. It's based around one thing: Fate pulled a crazy gambit. But I don't see FateScum (with or without Llama) thinking that gambit was a particularly good idea. Fate's play generally has felt really town. He's trying to push the issue. Also, from the point of view of someone who thinks the collective view on Llama was pretty terrible, his play there has been very much contrary to what scum would want.

The Bub wagon, on the other hand, is awesome and shiny. It's the place to be. Bub has no interest in actually defending himself. Instead he goes after Fate - without even trying to address Fate's play other than the gambit - and buddies Jahudo in the most blatant way possible. He's dropped reads on first DBE and then Llama the moment it was convenient (DBE when Llama attacked him; Llama when Fate became an easier wagon), never to mention them again. His play on Llamarble was horrible. This isn't play you see from someone trying to get scum lynched.

@Jahudo, brokenscraps:

it's decision time. We're not lynching brokenscraps today, and for some reason we're also going to let Not Voting live another day. Fate or BB?

[Fishythefish]

Good posting.

With Jahudo expressing preference for BB over Fate, it's definitely time for BB to claim.

[Fishythefish]

Yos, David can you give your up to date Darla read?

Fishy, Llama how are your views different now that Bub flipped town?

I'm floundering a little, and need to reread. I've got a few firm townreads, and no great scumreads - it's in the back of mind that DBE is scum, but I've almost forgotten why. I'm very tempted just to sheep Fate.

[Fishythefish]

@DP: why do you think Yos and Fate are scummy? Why haven't you been attacking them?

I didn't like DBE's day one play. Her read on me on day two changes oddly; at the beginning of the day, when I was being attacked a bit (particularly by DLG), she said I was "scummier than Llama", but I dropped to null pretty much exactly when interest in my lynch dropped off. She generally hasn't done a great deal in the way of scumhunting.

So. Moderate scumread on Darla. No other scumreads to speak of, but I've got a bad feeling about DP I must investigate.

[Fishythefish]

Tracking down my bad feeling about DP

I didn’t have much of a read on DP’s predecessors. They didn’t do anything to speak of. His replacing in was weird. He seemed to skip all of late day 1 shenanigans – which I now believe had

all four

of the most major players (BB, DLG, me, Llama) town. That’s weird, but unless Llama is scum there’s no scum motivation for doing so – those conflicts are exactly where you’d want to be stirring.

@DP: what did you think about late day 1?

DP then jumps on Fate. Fair enough, really. Fate was lying about his role, which is never good.

I never like last posts like that. It's not really a tell either way of whether you are town or scum, but if you do flip town I feel there is a lot of pressure to push a wagon just because you said to do so :/

This gave me a bad vibe. Just felt like DP was already thinking about what would happen after a BB mislynch.

What kind of explanation do you expect? It's evident you aren't scum buddies. I find you both inherently scummy on your own merits, but it doesn't seem a wagon on either of you is happening today, and there is no support for it. Fate recently has proven to be quite town; ie: I think you are likely scum. Broken saying you are a "confirmed power role" seems like some possible scum-defending, by implying you are town because of it. As it stands, I'd love a lynch of either of you two today, but I don't think it's all that likely, especially the lynch on you, which can wait, as there is time to catch you in your lie based on what you claimed.

Unvote, Vote: brokenscraps

This post is a bit horrible. Seems to be saying “I think Yos and Fate are scummy, but I can’t lynch them so I’m not trying”. It just doesn’t feel like DP is trying to convince anyone that Yos and Fate is scum – and that feels like scum who is content to jump on whatever as long as he looks ok. Although his other explanations why Yos is scummy – particularly in his last post – help a lot here.

So yeah, I’ve got a bit of a scumread on DP.

Jahudo made a good point on broken yesterday – he epically avoids committing to anything, keeping a lot of low level scumreads simmering. See Jahudo’s 954. My gut is screaming that broken is scum.

Who is scum, broken?

Torn between a vote for DBE and a
VOTE: brokenscraps

I am proud to be part of the Fate Fan Club.

[Fishythefish]

You know, that last post from broken is pretty solid. Makes me like broken more and DBE less.

I'm ready to hammer DBE. She should claim.

[Fishythefish]

Ahhh, actually I'm not. Feels like there should be a lot more broken hatred in this game than there is. And part of me wants to not be sheeping Fate to hard - after all, he has lied about his role.

Hmmm. Not sure about anything in this game right now.

[Fishythefish]

No ones claiming or hammering till Nikanor posts, I just remembered we were hydraing tohether oops. Ill repost this on the hydra.

Besides fishy, you act like my reads are less trustworthy cuz I lied. How's that mae sense? Lie or not I'm still town

Well, the lies make me wonder whether you are town. I'd feel particularly silly after the game if I turned out to be sheeping someone who's not only scum, but also made it obvious.

I should probably ISO you again to quash these doubts.

[Fishythefish]

So. Moderate scumread on Darla. No other scumreads to speak of, but I've got a bad feeling about DP I must investigate.

Jahudo made a good point on broken yesterday – he epically avoids committing to anything, keeping a lot of low level scumreads simmering. See Jahudo’s 954. My gut is screaming that broken is scum.

Why does your gut go from having nothing to speak of to screaming because of a post you read yesterday? Inconsistent, inconsistent.

I reread, focusing on you.

Torn between a vote for DBE and a
VOTE: brokenscraps

This post also continues the "darla is scum" cries while conveniently setting up a darla counter-wagon in me. Also "name partner as suspect, vote someone else".

Really, this is just assigning an arbitrary motivation to my actions. What makes you not believe that I just find you both scummy?

[Fishythefish]

Right.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DBE

I prefer this to a broken lynch. broken's post on DBE was pretty good, and his post criticising me doesn't have much scum motivation; I was considering moving to DBE, and attacking me seems counterproductive. The company on the broken wagon isn't good.

L-1

[Fishythefish]

Yep, I can easily see Yos tracking Llama here. Equally, it clearly doesn't in any way confirm anything. Yos probably

is

a tracker of some alignment - it's a dodgy fakeclaim for scum.

[Fishythefish]

Well, Darla is certainly not the lynch. May be SK, may be vig, and that's a question for much later in the game, if she's still alive.

Brokenscraps should claim.

[Fishythefish]

If it's any help, I am willing to cooperate with the town/majority in selecting my kills. Assuming at least we don't have a role-blocker in play on either side, especially on the scum team if the majority decides to target one of theirs.

Actually, I'd rather not direct you. Roleblockers are too common.

[Fishythefish]

The deadline is on Sunday??? I'm still voting for Darla!?!?!?! AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Let's get a lynch. Right now, I see no reason to think that ww is scum. Explain please Fate? I'll move to him if I have to, but I prefer a
UNVOTE: VOTE: brokenscraps

Everyone needs to get voting for broken or Locke, and to do it fast. We need a lynch, and there are no other plausible candidates.

[Fishythefish]

Excellent!

I'm actually on V/LA. I'll be back on Saturday.

[Fishythefish]

Red scum + Blue scum + Vig = 4 kills in 3 nights? No. DBE doesn't claim the Yos kill, so we can't have just Red + DBE vig (which would need rather cruel modding as well). Even if DBE is actually red with Yos, that's fine - it's unlikely we've got another mislynch whatever happens. So, DBE lynch looks good

I'll be rereading early next week to look for Yos and DBE connections. No need to rush this day.

[Fishythefish]

@Fate: 3-3 is just totally unbalanced in a 14 player game, unless town is more stacked than we've seen here. Also, if it's 3-3 we've lost, so we may as well assume it's not. So, 2-2.

And yeah, I suppose there's no particular reason to do analysis today rather than tomorrow. We'll have a lot more info tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Thank god for that - if Fate and Llama were both alive this morning I was going to go mad about whether they were a scumteam.

Shall we massclaim? You never know, it might actually help.

[Fishythefish]

Hooray! Today's lynch turns out to be an easy decision (thought tomorrow's is a toughie). More on this when claiming finishes.

[Fishythefish]

Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo that's interesting. We got a PR claim!

[Fishythefish]

What a totally bizarre claim. Sounds normal, though.

I'm a VT.

Cop + Gunsmith + Doc + Commuter overpowered in 8v2v2? Cop and Gunsmith each have ways to get a false positive, which helps. I don't have time to do much thinking now, but here's what I was going to post before massclaim happened:

We’re lynching Jahudo today.

1. Llama is town.

I got a ridiculously strong town read off Llama in the period after Fate replaced in. When that happened, I was feeling really down about the game – I thought the case on Llama was BS, but noone would listen to me. When Fate replaced in, aggressively and impressively agreeing with me, I felt much, much better about things. And I saw the same things in Llama’s play. Since then, his play has been good.

2. Locke and DP aren’t scum together

Two reasons here. Firstly, the DP/werewolf scrap, which starts around post 760. werewolf votes DP with bad reasoning. DP replies:

LOL.

I was about to go to sleep having unvoted one of my town reads and leave it there but that is too funny.

mega vote: werewolf

Are you serious?!?!? LIKE SERIOUS???!??!

Your partner distances from you and you mock his post completely? That would take serious balls. This whole argument just doesn’t feel like distancing.

Also very interesting is the aftermath of DBE’s vig claim. Fate (a very influential player) voted for werewolf. And then so did DP, making ww the only wagon. This could easily have led to ww’s lynch, and would be a really poor move from DPscum with ww.

3. Jahudo is scummy

It’s really just this: nothing Jahudo’s done has really made me think he’s town. Usually, from a player like Jahudo (ie. tries, makes arguments), if he’s town I’d expect to feel he’s made good, new points that I agree with, or that I’m convinced his perspective is a genuine one. I haven’t got that town feel from Jah in this game.

Add to this:

4. But Jahudo is a gunsmith?

I’d expect scum Jah, if pulling this gambit, to go all out and report a gun on DP or LL. It’s also inherently risky because there could be another investigative PR, which would cast serious doubt on Jah’s claim. All in all, a townish looking claim, particularly first up in massclaim without any massive suspicion on him – the classic time to claim VT. The Llama result fits his play perfectly, and he did go after DBE hard day 2 - if this is a fakeclaim, it's one he's been planning. Which is, of course, a possibility.

Questions for Jah:
Why didn’t you claim your result on DBE, given that you were prepared for her to claim/be lynched?
Why did you target Yos, when you knew he’d have a gun one way or another?
Can you give me a list of scum games where you reached massclaim, and if you can be bothered tell me what you claimed?

5. DP and Jah confirm each other, in that Jah visited the absent DP last night

Not sure how much to read into this. Explanations:
a) Both are town telling the truth.
b) DP scum, exploiting Jah's true claim rather brilliantly (seems unlikely tbh).
c) Jah scum, took another action on DP (rolecop? or just gunsmith, actually) that failed to resolve last night.
d) Both scum, with linked fakeclaims - quite a bold and unnecessary move.

I'm guessing a) or c), so DP is looking pretty good.

1b. Llama has no gun

And so is probably town.

Hmmmm. I guess we should lynch Locke. Everyone else is looking reasonably good right now - I'd be very surprised if there were two scum in LL/Jah/Llama.

[Fishythefish]

I just typed out a post about Jah's claim, DP's claim, who is scum, likelihood of both PRs being real, that kind of thing. But actually, I think it would be very silly to post it. Suffice to say that both claims are convincing enough that they are each less likely scum than Locke. As far as I'm concerned, the best lynch is Locke by a great margin, and I don't want to tell his partner who the best kill is.

I might go ahead and actually look at Locke's play later. It's traditional before you lynch someone. But the PoE is strong enough that he pretty much has to be scum.

[Fishythefish]

Using the same PoE you are highly-plausible scum as well.

Just saying. I'm all onboard a Locke lynch, but if your reasoning is "PoE".. then..... dunno what to say.

At the moment I'm inclined to believe Jahudo's claim.

I'm painfully aware of the bolded. I think my play in this game has been protown enough that the townies out there should be able to make the right decision today.

@LL: I'm not mixing DBE with Yos there. Jah claims to have investigated DBE before she claimed vig, and to have investigated Yos after he claimed tracker. I *think* that trackers having guns is the norm, so that would make Yos the surprising investigation.

Looking at Locke's slot, it's basically done nothing through a string of replacements. There's not much to say about it.

You know what?

VOTE: Locke

If Locke's town, there's no way we're winning this game; there's just no chance that we can get through today, let alone tomorrow, with neither of us being lynched. So, today we are either lynching him or me. Protip: him.

[Fishythefish]

(I'm not trying to rush things - while we are lynching either LL or me today, there's no particular reason to do so quickly. You can take your time realising that LL is scum.)

[Fishythefish]

I vote in LYLO and wait all night and noone reacts?

[Fishythefish]

A sudden and bad RL situation has cropped up, and I will be away until early next week. Sorry.

[Fishythefish]

Hooray! Well done Llama, and to the town for winning from 4-2-2.

MVP is pretty clear. Fate was obvtown, and his replacing in took Llama and myself right off the lynching menu, and practically formed a Llama/Fishy/Fate masonry. His reads on catchup were ridiculously accurate -
Town category 4/4 town
Scum category 3/5 scum
Neutral category 1 each
It's a testament to the standard of his play that he fakeclaimed, and only drew a four man wagon three of whom were scum.

@DP: out of interest, why the commuter claim? I feel it actually rather helped to confirm Jahudo, which was a pretty bad thing there.