New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[Uite]

Hi guys! I'm back from my trip and ready to play!

[Uite]

I'm sorry about not being active earlier, I've been very tired the past two days. So far, I've only been able to skim the thread, but I can say that I don't trust Thor one bit. I'll have to do a proper reread to get a real opinion about him and everyone else in the game though.

[Uite]

We should probably all just policy lynch Uite for being a lurking lurker.

Uite lurking is typical town Uite

Lurking is bad, Uite is bad, Uite, get the fuck out here and post please.

Sorry guys, I know I should be more active, but I don't really have much to say right now, because I'm still catching up, and it's going a lot slower than I'd like. I put in a couple hours this afternoon, and I'm up to page 5 with plenty of notes. Another session like that and I'll be completely up to speed. You can expect me to be more active when that happens, but it probably won't happen until tomorrow.

[Uite]

Like I said, I spent a few hours catching up this afternoon, but I only got up to page 5. I'd have liked to have gotten a lot farther than that, but for some reason my reading speed is really slow.

[Uite]

Okay, I just can't seem to get myself to do a proper reread, so I'll just dive right in now.

I'm getting seriously bad vibes from Toon Fighter, and Thor's play seems off to me as well. The former weighs more heavily than the latter, so:

VOTE: Toon Fighter

As for town, I'm looking at silverbullet and Pine. Everyone else is either neutral, or I don't really have an opinion about.

[Uite]

I'm very interested in people who haven't really said much about the silver case. I'm looking at you, Uite.

In case you didn't notice, Silverbullet is on my list of town reads. It's mostly based on meta, but he's really playing like town-SB. I know he's usually a bit random and out there, which always makes him look mildly scummy. Now the trick to deciphering whether he's town or scum is to look at how much sense he's making. I've found that when he's scum, he'll just say whatever, without any coherence at all, but if he's town, you can easily see the thought patterns behind his posts. This game is an obvious case of the latter, so much so that he's one of the few I'm willing to confidently say is Town.

I'm sure there's scum on this wagon, taking advantage of SB's default scumminess. Looking at voting patterns, DeityKabuto clearly stands out. He's placed three votes so far, and all have been on well-developed wagons. He was the fourth vote on the Toon wagon, third on Pine, and fifth on SB's. Looking at his iso, it's a menagerie of stating the obvious, without much thought or analysis, like he's not actually trying to scumhunt.

UNVOTE: Toon Fighter
VOTE: DeityKabuto

[Uite]

That is some reasonable logic there, but I am more of what the "town" wants. If the town wants a certain person lynch, then I will overview the case and gather my own reasoning. Scumhunting itself can make you look scummy, if you don't know what you're doing, which I've experienced in past games.

That's an interesting take you have there. I think you're confusing being scummy with being wrong. What you're doing right now is just throwing your hands up and saying: "I can't play this game, so I'm not going to try." Mafia doesn't work that way, and what you're showing us now is that you're far more concerned with "what the town wants" instead of your actual thoughts and opinions, which is classic scum play.

That being said, however, the timing of Uite's post seems odd to me, especially since if I read the deadline right, we only have 4 days left, and Uite's trying to start a completely different wagon? It just seems a bit suspicious to me.

I can answer that one easily: I didn't realise the deadline was only four days away. The last few days have been sort of a blur for me, and that coupled with my earlier absence led be to seriously underestimate the time left.

[Uite]

jmurph3, I never said that, you are trying to make me look bad. I am just saying, in a game, not everyone can scum hunt, there is the "prey", and there is the "predator". If every single person was the "predator" then things would be really hectic. So instead, there are some townies who actually want to play it safe, instead of turning into the "prey". But in general, I am not good at scum hunting, I don't want to ruin my reputation here.

Again with the thinking more about yourself. This is just not what you do to win as town, but it's exactly what you need as scum.

[Uite]

I'm sorry I had to be prodded. My mind has been elsewhere the last few days, and with all the recent activity I'm not sure I can catch up in time. It's really late here (3:20) and I need to sleep now. If you haven't lynched anyone by the time I wake up, I'll try to throw in my two cents worth.

[Uite]

Uite the lurker just weak endorsed the SZ wagon while washing his hands on it. Whoop-dee-doo, that's an awesome wagon, isn't it? I must be CrAzY to not be on it, amirite?

I can't comment on the rest, because I haven't actually read the last few pages yet, but it's stuff like this that makes me think you're scum. You have absolutely nothing to base that statement on, yet you insist on using it to paint me in a bad light. You've been doing it pretty much all game, and I know you're better than that. So why do you keep doing it?

[Uite]

Holy shit @ this game! But seriously, this is looking good, and I'd be all for hammering DeityKabuto if it weren't so early in the Day. I'm glad to see my reads from yesterday all but confirmed. However, isn't a claim like that against site rules?

[Uite]

I'd prefer that don't hammer until I finish re-reading Day 1, but that's going to take me a day or so.

I second this motion. I'm aware of what happened, but it's a lot to digest.

[Uite]

overall towniness, being on both wagons that led to scum, scumhunting throughout the game, being 100% sure I am town.

I find it very very hard to believe that, if DK flips scum, mastin is scum. He could, theoretically, still be a SK, if DK really is a roleblocker, as he claims, and he blocked mastin, maybe that is why the SK death didn't go through. Or maybe he killed Wraith.

Also, he could be taunting scum to kill him because he, as a SK, is NK-immune. If this is true, then mastin may be pulling a huge gambit towards a win as a SK

I have to agree with this. Useful as he may seem, he's making me a little uneasy, and I'd prefer if he weren't around for a LyLo situation, should we reach that.

[Uite]

I'm sorry for checking in so late, I've been sick for the past few days. Anyway, reading up on Today's posts, there's one player who gives me a really strong gut scumread. I find it hard to explain, but nearly every post seems to be written from a scum perspective. Who am I talking about? Well:

VOTE: jmurph3

[Uite]

Fuck, I totally forgot about the Mason thing. I confess, I'm stupid.

UNVOTE: jmurph3

[Uite]

Perhaps this scumslip will provide us with the compromise we need for today's lynch.

It's not a scumslip. I actually keep a spreadsheet to keep track of votes, claims and flips in all my games, but I haven't updated this one's since page 13. I know it's not an excuse, but that is what happened, I just lost track. It's kinda wifom, but wouldn't scum keep better track of who's who?

[Uite]

Fuck, I've been really busy the past few days (all good things, I assure you) and I'm behind again. It's too late at night for me to catch up now, so I promise I will do so tomorrow.

[Uite]

I took the time today to update my spreadsheet, and I'm presenting it here to you in all it's glory!



I take it most of you have encountered something like this before, and know how to read it. If not, ask and Ill explain. As far as I can tell, this is accurate, but please tell me if something is off.

Anyway, in the process of composing this, I skimmed over all of the posts from page 13 on, though I haven't read anything in depth. From my skim, there are two people I have a bad gut about: Pine and Toon. Pine's claim seems reasonable enough though, so my main suspect right now is Toon. I haven't actually analysed anything yet, so I'll hold off my vote until I do.

[Uite]

When VCA is used first, it is the basis for tunneling and justifying all evidence to fit that view.

When VCA is used to support an existing case, it is bent and twisted to justify that existing case.

Statistics, and VCA is just that, can be made to do whatever you want them to.

Except that that's not how I do it. I don't base my case on votecounts, but I try to analyse to find patterns and anomalies, which can serve as the basis of an investigation. It's one more tool in the toolbox, not the end-all-be-all of scumhunting.

An incomplete explanation is not helpful. How does one interpret it, and more to the point, how does one misinterpret it as badly as Uite seems to?

How have I misinterpreted anything about the votes? I haven't actually started analysing yet, and have said so. It this stage, it's just a big heap of data.

Are you claiming VT, Uite? In your VC, it says VT under your name

Might as well. I probably should have edited that out, but here we are.

Uite, have you looked at yourself? You had 3 bs votes (voted me, unvoted the day after, voted into a DK wagon that never went anywhere D1, failed to vote D2, and D3 same thing, a stupid vote on a confirmed town, and now no votes for a few days), never showed up to any decent wagon, lurked throughout the game, waited to hammer DK. Your scumhunting is resumed to basically the VCA post, and even that has no real comment to it, its just a collection of data. You think we should lynch mastin, Pine, me, jmurph, although you haven't analysed anything yet. You may have been sick, but it has been enough time to catch up by now. Also, you have an unexplained and unnecessary VT claim and a column seems to be missing from your VCA. Who was there? scumslip much?

Have you looked at my actual posts? I grant that my jmurph vote was terrible, but the rest was definitely reasoned and deserved. My first vote for you, well pardon my french, but you're a fucking loony. There's no sense or structure to what you're saying, and I can't believe you're actually trying to do anything. I just looked at your iso, and this is literally your first post with more than three lines (excluding quotes), and your first with any independent accusations. As for my next post, I voted DK because I caught him scumming it up. Even under that little pressure, he already caved and nearly confessed, so why would I have taken my vote off him? And I didn't vote for him Day 2 because I wanted more time to actually think about what happened and what was going on. Which I'd explained multiple times.

Note also that, excepting jmurph, I have refrained from voting purely on gut and have looked for real reasons first. Concerning my absence from the game, mea culpa. Real life happened, and I didn't get to play as I would have liked. I apologise for that. By the way, I love how you're getting so overzealous in condemning me after standing on the sidelines the whole game, that you're actually using a blank column as an argument, even though you've seen your error there. To me, this all seems like you're just slinging mud on a relatively easy target, and that coupled with the flaws and major leaps in your assumptions make me think you're scum.

VOTE: Toon Fighter

[Uite]

You keep saying that, but as far as I can tell, you're the only one doing so. Why is Toon town again?

[Uite]

I require explanation of why Toon is Town to you, Mastin.

Alright, brief summary:
1: VCA. Toon looks favorable on it, pretty much the whole way through.
2: Being the Counter-wagon to Amor yesterday. Tell me, Pine, when was the last time you saw BOTH the lead wagons going on be on scum, in a single-faction game?
It doesn't happen. Toon is Town, because his wagon was the counter-wagon to a scumwagon, and therefore he is town.
3: Mislynchable. Toon has been acting a bit like an idiot (no offense meant, Toon), so is an easy mislynch.
4: Scumhunting. Toon is doing some quite legitimate scumhunting.
5: General reads of the game. Look at who've been pushing Toon as scum--Amor was one of them, for instance.
6: Gut. I know, the weakest of my reasons by far, but still a legitimate reason.

Toon's town for so many reasons it's not even funny; this is just a summary and I could ramble all day about why Toon's not scum.

I take it you're referring to this? That's just not cutting it. The only thing on your list I agree with is #3, and that's not actually relevant to someone being scum at all. Please try again.

[Uite]

Mastin, you're talking out of your ass. Two scum as the top wagons definitely happens. And let's take a look at TF's Day 1 wagons, which is all that was available when you made that statement:

1. 2nd on nhammen
   
2. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
3. 1st on mastin2
   
4. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
5. 8th on silverbullet999
   
6. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
7. 6th on Amor

Most of those are exactly in the "sweet spot" you've claimed for scum. So really, I want to see your reasoning, instead of you just declaring stuff.

Also, what is this scumhunting you speak of? Really, you've got to back up your claims if they're to be believeable, and you've already shown that you're a liar with your fakeclaim.

[Uite]

That's your defense? I mentioned lot of issues, and you're not answering any of them.

Also, Day 2 hardly tells us anything, since DK was already bloody obvious Day 1.

[Uite]

Mastin, you're talking out of your ass. Two scum as the top wagons definitely happens. And let's take a look at TF's Day 1 wagons, which is all that was available when you made that statement:

1. 2nd on nhammen
   
2. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
3. 1st on mastin2
   
4. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
5. 8th on silverbullet999
   
6. 3rd on SubzeroSith
   
7. 6th on Amor

Most of those are exactly in the "sweet spot" you've claimed for scum. So really, I want to see your reasoning, instead of you just declaring stuff.

Also, what is this scumhunting you speak of? Really, you've got to back up your claims if they're to be believeable, and you've already shown that you're a liar with your fakeclaim.

Answer my questions, Mastin!

[Uite]

@Mastin:

Off the top of my head I remember the two top wagons being on Mafia in ReBoot, so yeah.

Toon is not town. There is no town intention behind his posts. Read my sig and answer the fucking questions.

[Uite]

I'm thoroughly confused at this game. Mastin's fake was horrible and probably deserved the lynch. Toon's claim seems real enough, though that raises the question why he wasn't killed at night. Even if jmurph was a confirmed townie, shooting a claimed vig would have higher priority I'd think. Unless he could be blocked...

I'll need some time to untangle this mess, and for the meantime I'll park my vote on NS, because really, he's done even less than me this game.

VOTE: Nobody Special

[Uite]

EBWOP: That meant to say that if he's scum, he's doing a really good job of keeping a low profile, and I certainly don't want him around in LyLo because of that.

[Uite]

Same here. Sorry I had to be prodded, my mind has been elsewhere.

[Uite]

Sorry guys, I've been ill the past weekend. I'm starting to feel better now, but I'm not fit enough to slog through all the new posts. I'll try to have it done tomorrow.

[Uite]

b]@mod: Can you prod Uite with vengenace before the deadline please?[/b]

What is it you need me so desperately for?

[Uite]

Pine is scum. It's completely open and shut at this point. As for the buddy, nhammen is definitely the most likely candidate.

[Uite]

You know why

[Uite]

Uite never had the chance to hammer...

Actually I did. If you look at mu posting history, you can see that I was online after MrZepher's vote. I didn't have a lot of time, and I was still debating what to do, so I didn't post.

Uite why do you think Nham is the most likely candidate?

PoE. I know I'm not scum, I've had a town read on Silverbullet for the longest time, and comparing last night's shenanigans to the previous, you look pretty townie too. Besides, for all the many words he's used, he never seemed to really commit to anything, seemingly trying to avoid any responsibility or culpability.

And why did you opt to not vote?

Because that would end the Day, and lose us a townie at night, and three heads are better than two.

The lack of this game being ended already (assuming 2 scum) means either i'm scum or pine is scum... so let's think about this further... this also means that at least one of us is probably voting a townie (there is a possibility that there is bussing so both scum could be the lynch candidates.. or both scum could be possibly voting to... ) but at the very least again from the above fact... the most likely scenario is one of the two people with a vote is scum and one of the two people voting is scum... Which is the constant in the equation...

Exactly right. Either it's you/MrZepher as the team, or Pine is really, really scum. I'm heavily leaning towards the latter.

Pine's flailing is cute, now that he sees he has no way out.

[Uite]

Scum

[Uite]

Sorry guys, I'm going to be v/la until probably Sunday.

[Uite]

The extreme speed with which Silver and Zepher voted is indicative of scum confidence, not Town caution.

Town wouldn't ever dare to rush like that.

The caution of Uite and nham is exemplary Town behavior, but they've obviously been left alive for their dearth of strong reads.

(emphasis mine)

First vote of Day 5:

Pine

. Thanks for claiming.

[Uite]

I... don't think I find Pine/Uite to be very logical, but considering Uite's been lurking up a storm all game I'll take a look back.

I mean... I never had any sort of gut indication that Uite could be scum so I've pursued the possibility.

Liar

@silverbullet999:

Your QT argument is beyond silly. Lay it off.

You mean flailing because things are going the way he wants/needs him to?

It's becoming more and painful as the day goes by.
Uite needs to hammer nao.

Other scum can be found pending a flip, actually.

I don't need to do anything. Very tempted to vote for you now, but I'd rather wait for nhammen's promised wall.

[Uite]

For me, there's really only two possibilities, and one of those seems more and more likely.

[Uite]

Sure, I'll join you.

VOTE: silverbullet999

[Uite]

Meh, you deserved it. You seriously fucked it up the last day.

[Uite]

Uite, I would think that logically, the situation was the same for you as the fake-town me, but with Pine/nham replacing Pine/Uite. Thus, logically you should also have only been voting Pine or Zepher. What caused you to vote silver?

Actually, with all the information I had, I already knew it had to be you+Pine or SB+Zepher. I think I already said that at some point.

[Uite]

Also, the best way to get me to vote for your team? Lie to me.

[Uite]

Look at my first post of the day. I admit Zepher played a big part in it as well.