New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[mastin2]

Hi, all.

Guess who's waiting to get their PM to start playing?

[mastin2]

Vote: SubSith

. How can you be only half a Sith?

[mastin2]

Who is online
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^The first one there has been there for well over five minutes. Might we expect a wall? (It aint coming from the second one, ironically enough.)

[mastin2]

(unsure if his vote on SubzeroSith was random or not, just replaced in so he missed the RVS stage though)

Totally. Dead serious, in fact.
SubSith's SO Scum. Seriously.

[mastin2]

(unsure if his vote on SubzeroSith was random or not, just replaced in so he missed the RVS stage though)

Totally. Dead serious, in fact.
SubSith's SO Scum. Seriously.

Alright.. sub is town.

UNVOTE:

Actually. SubSith was a townread. Hence scum. So you can vote SubSith.

[mastin2]

It really does. Unlike most of my posts, that one was made while I was perfectly coherent. You need only understand the history behind it. Nhammen, Pine, Silver, and Wraith are the ones besides me in this game who'll get it.

But yeah. SubSith was Serious. Totally mean it. Honestly. (Don't give me that look!)

[mastin2]

Dang cold. I meant to work on this game last night, but a sore throat at 2 am was my body's signal that I needed to sleep. >_< Looks like I'm out of time, and have to post this, 'cause nobody's paying attention to me. :/

---

Now I realize my vote on Sub

Zero

Sith is extremely poor, and gives off the appearance of a horrible RVote past that S.

But it actually does have a purpose. I'm typing this at 6:18 (the post SAYS 8:17 'cause I haven't fixed my time zone), to show how I'm not BS'ing when I choose to post it.

Essentially, I'm looking for specific reactions to my post. Everyone who knows me should realize that I don't like the RVS--hate it, even. And that I'd recognize better than anyone else when it's over.

And I did.

But I'm after those reactions. I'm actually quite concerned about SubZeroSith. I've played with DarthYoshi's half before. (Technically, I believe I've played with ICEninja once or twice two years ago, but didn't really pay any attention to those games. :P)

And this doesn't look like the Yoshi-town I remember.

Granted, he was a newbie, then, and he was also a Cop, then, (and hydra'ing is different than normal play) but it's still concerning enough to me that I'm looking specifically for reactions.

Spoiler: My overall reads in the game were essentially

jmurph--null, lean town.
Silver--null, need meta review.
Wraith--null, need meta review.
Amor--null; fluctuated. Seemed like scum, but also looked like an easy mislynch.
nhammen--null; need meta review. I've seen him as both town and scum, and think I can tell the difference.
DeityKabuto--null, leaning town.
Pine--inadvisable to read him, so null.
Zepher--null, slight town lean.
Surye--seemed town enough, but I'm not sure.
Nobody Special--Null.
Thor--Null. Fluctuated between scum and town.
Uite--got a town-read, somehow. Will need review.
Subzero--as mentioned, weak scumread.
Toon--Null; fluctuates. I see the case against Toon Fighter, but at the same time, Toon seems like an easy mislynch.
Maxous--town-read.
Knight of Cydonia--null; fluctuates. Seems scum on first impression, but gut says town.

...In other words:
Worthless. (I was thinking originally, "how hard could it be?" Then I tried, realized how many null--therefore worthless-reads I had, and screamed, "GAH!")

I need to re-read the thread. And I decided that in the mean time, I might as well leave something with a "WTF?!?" factor to get in good reactions.

Oh, and some time in the future--a few hours, a day, I dunno--I'm going to respond to any "is that serious?!?" with a response of,

"Totally. Dead serious. Sith's So Scum."

...To get more reactions.

I know, kinda confusing, but it makes sense as play from me.

So, yeah. Is it random? Semi. It's not a strong vote. But it's a vote enough for me to get started in the game.






Now, for my catchup post:

Spoiler: hopefully, will be my only wall

I'm going to quickly run through my first impressions of posts.
Do note, this IS just my FIRST impressions. As in, my initial view of the thread. These reads are obviously going to change some more when I look at things in more detail.
Dislike.
Dislike.
Like.
Like.
Dislike.
Double Dislike. The reason is not what I'd expect from a town-Pine who played with nhammen as scumbuddies.
Dislike.
Dislike. (Thor now has two.)
Dislike.
Flip-flops. No RV is bad, way he answered the questions seemed good.
Dislike. KoC now has two.
Like. Hard to explain why. It shouldn't be a "like". It's nearly identical to KoC's, which I dislike. But I'm calling it as I see on my first impression, and somehow, this post was a like rather than a dislike. (And theoretically counterbalances the dislike from Toon, earlier.)
Like. THIS is the type of post I expect!
Like. There's something very subtle in this which makes me like it. I'd prefer not to explain it, but trust me, it's there.
Dislike.
Double Dislike. Again. (That said, I would prefer not to attempt to read Pine. It ends badly. :P)
Like. Despite the fact that there's no RV (which SHOULD make me dislike it), I somehow still get a likable impression out of it.
Dislike. This is my second dislike on SubSith.
Flip-flops. First paragraph I disliked, second I semi-liked. Has that scum lean, considering the second paragraph seemed like it was weaker, but still, far from solid.
Dislike. This is Thor's third dislike...
Flip-flops. Seems like it should be town, but a gut feeling--can't pin down where; might be the last sentence--prevents it from being a like.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Like.
Flip-flops. (Told you it was a bad idea for me to read Pine. :P)
flip-flops. Seems like it SHOULD be town (for the PS), but something seems off.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops.
Like.
Dislike. This is SubSith's third dislike.
Like. Though that might just be due to me laughing so hard. :P
Flip-flops.
Dislike. This is SubSith's fourth dislike. I think you can understand why I'm concerned about 'em. (Though, again, I'd like to remind you that these ARE initial impressions only, and that when I review the posts more, and look at interactions between people, I might change my mind.)
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops. There's something in there which makes me think Pine's town, but that same exact thing the very next second made me think Pine was scum, and then the very next moment made me think... ...Yeah.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops. Seems like it SHOULD be town, but gut's acting up. >_< (Pine, I hate you. :P)
Flip-flops. Slight town-lean, but not sure; too heavily doubted for me to like it.
Like.
Like. Under the assumption both NS and Thor are town, though. If either of them aren't, I'd be suspicious of this post.
Like.
Like. Albeit only just.
Dislike.
Like. Also a post which assumes Thor's town, this time also assuming silver's town. If either aren't...
Like, though see above.
Flip-flops. I thought, at first, that I liked it: he was spot-on, and that was pretty much my opinion. Why not a like, then? Because Thor's vote remained on Max and wasn't switched.
Like. Albeit only just.
Dislike. What is this, the fifth?
Flip-flops.
Like.
Flip-flops. Would be dislike, but the question to KoC (which makes me doubt the Like) prevents that.
Like. Though only just.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Like.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Dislike.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Like.
Dislike. For multiple reasons, too. This is SubSith's sixth dislike! (I'm...a bit worried I might be tunneling...)
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops. Part of me likes it, part of me hates it.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops. Why? 'Cause he doesn't trust nhammen specifically, rather than nhammen AND Pine. If it were both, I definitely would've liked this post, but only one makes me doubtful.
Flip-flops. With a slight town lean. ("...What." Just calling it how I see it! :/) Justification seemed somewhat suspicious, but I liked his vote. ("...But it was an OMGUS." Yes, but it was done in a way which gave me the initial town impression.)
Flip-flops.
Like.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Dislike.
Flip-flops. But has a town lean to it.
Dislike.
Flip-flops. With a slight newb-town-lean.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops. With a

very

slight

town read.
Like.
Flip-flops. But does make me think that I need to revise the dislike I had for Pine's attitude before, since he explains it here.
Flip-flops, but has a scum-lean.
Flip-flops.
Double dislike. This is the seventh. (

Am

I tunneling? :/)
Flip-flops.
Like, and this also makes me like the original, since he (presumably) has only seen scum-Pine once, as opposed to scum-nhammen twice.
Flip-flops. Though it's quite hilarious.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops, though it has a strong town-lean.
Flip-flops.
Like, but only on the condition that KoC and Thor are both town.
Like, albeit only just. Also, see above.
Like, though see above. (Funny, how so many interactions with Thor look town, but only if both the person involved and Thor are town...)
Dislike. What is this, eight?
Flip-flop, but slight town lean.
Flip-flop.
Like. Despite the incoherence.
Dislike. Number nine for SubSith. This is fluff. (...Yeah, pretty sure I'm tunneling on SubSith. :/)
Like. Albeit only just.
Like, though that might just be due to me laughing.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Dunno. (Flip-flop implies that I've read it as town, and read it as scum, and can't decide. "Dunno" is flat-out "have no read either way; Null".)
Flip-flop.
Like.
Dislike. Thor's Dislike count has been pretty nullified by the number of Likes, so I'm not going to bother to count what number this is.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flop, though has a town-lean.
Flip-flops, though again has that town-lean.
Flip-flop, with a slight scum lean.
Like.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops.
Flip-flops, but actually has a town-lean. ("...What." Points out what he sees as hypocrisy; that looks like good, solid [albeit of questionable strength logic] scumhunting to me.)
Like, but that might just be due to how much I'm laughing. :P
Flip-flop.
Flip-flops.
Dislike. Tenth strike, yer out? :P (Alright, it's official. I'm tunneling on SubSith. :P)
Flip-flops.
Flip-flop, but with a town-lean.
Flip-flop. Made me laugh, though. ;)
Like, though that might just be the fact that I am absolutely laughing quite loudly. :P
Flip-flops, but scum lean.
Like.

And as of 8:15, that's the last post in the thread. So, I'll begin my reads of the game in more detail. Starting with VCA (cooked up as I was doing the above).

Some VCA:
DeityKabuto, MrZepher, Maxous <--I'd expect one scum, here.
Amor, Thor665, Nobody Special <--'Nother scum here, I'd expect.
I'd also expect one to two scum in the (1) voters, nhammen, SubSith, Surye, silver, Wraith, and KoC.
But with 17 players, that's pretty much only 4-5 scum, likely only 4. Might be one scum in the (2) wagon, but doubtful.

I'm a bit concerned at how many of my scumreads are in particular areas, since there's a maximum amount of scum for said places, a limit dangerously close to being exceeded.

DeityKabuto, MrZepher, Knight of Cydonia <--I'd still expect one scum in there. :/
Thor, Amor, Nobody Special <--Same.
Additionally, with two (2) wagons, I'd expect one scum in {Surye, silver, Pine, Toon}, too.
Which, of course, means that I'd expect one more scum to be within {nhammen, SubSith}.

SubzeroSith, Pine, MrZepher, DeityKabuto <--Another concerning wagon, I'd expect to see one scum on here, yet there are multiple scum suspects present...
Wraith, Maxous, jmurph3, Surye, silverbullet999, Toon Fighter <--I'd expect 1-2 scum in here.
Which leaves 1-2 scum in the remaining wagons, and that'd be one scum in {Thor, NS, KoC} and/or one scum in {nhammen, Amor}.

NOTE: As of 5/10 at 5 PM (just before I leave for Tae Kwon Do), I did the totally serious. So far, I'm being called a bit of an active lurker. (By Toon.) This is promising. "How so?" It is promising because it might give me insight into Toon. Initial read is good, but I'll be observing the reactions it'll get soon enough.

In the mean time, I've still got to work on reading posts in more detail, observing the interactions. I've got pretty much only a day or so to do so. ("Why that deadline?" 'Cause that's about how long I can get away with this style of posting: half a week or so. If I exceed that limit, then I become an actual active lurker in the eyes of others, despite the fact that I'm typing up notes and contributing secretly behind the scenes. :P)

(As for my 9:18 message about SubSith being a town-read? Not a complete lie. SubSith looks kinda like an easy wagon.)

You'll also note in my 2:15 message a trend I've intentionally been using: lack of smilies, something I always use. Really hoping somebody catches on to this. I mean, look at the above! :P That's normal for me. ;)

Yeah. There's one word for my total contribution to this game, even with the above:

Fluff.

And lots of it. Sorry, guys. Thought it'd be easier. But, eh, I meant it when I said this'd be my only wall. What am I going to do?

Open a private QT, to store my thoughts in, and post only the conclusions from it.

I've got to click on every single one of the links I made, see why I thought what I did at the time, review it, and come to a final conclusion on the matter to get a solid read. (Which would be another huge wall, hence, me wanting a QT*. :P)

*Hey, it works when I'm in Calcifer! :P When I use a QT, I wall less. ;)

Vote will momentarily stay: SubSith IS a suspect of mine, despite the fact that they appear to be an easy wagon. I'll be pondering whether I think they're town or scum, but since (to my knowledge) they're nowhere close to being lynched, no harm in keeping my vote there.

[mastin2]

I'm not sure what you hoped to accomplish with your vote on me, but if it's something that you normally do then I'll just have to wait for some real scum hunting from the end of the day.

Ice, I assume?
(By lack of familiarity. Not surprising, considering I barely remembered that name, and the memory's probably mutual. )

I clearly explained everything in the post.

Spoiler: Initial Reads

I say these are my initial reads, which are pretty much my first thoughts on that post, and that post alone. Not taking into account the bigger picture, so to speak. Also VERY largely influenced by Gut, which I explained probably is the reason for similar posts getting a different rating. (I don't know why for sure, since I'm not sure myself why; I just know I felt that way. The reasons why I have no clue--only an educated guess.)

Spoiler: Rambling on VCA

The VCA makes sense if you've seen my play in any of my games and know how I analyze it. It's Mastin-style analysis. (I wrote a guide on it. "Mastin's Guide to VCA", if you're interested. It still has some quirks to work out, and is somewhat controversial, to say the least, but eventually, I'm going to perfect it!) I've found that it actually tends to be more accurate than my reads on people. For instance, in There Will Be Bloodshed, I correctly called out there being one scum on the Pine wagon. I thought it was Evil, and when Evil died, thought it was Empking. I wasn't wrong--it was that the confirmed town, TwoHeadedBoy (both via Neighbor and Cop) wasn't actually confirmed town. Had I trusted the analysis instead of my reads, I would've nailed 'em. (I was also dead at the time, though theoretically, it would've worked!) Like I said. Still has glitches I need to work out. But it'll eventually be my best scumhunting tool.

So, yeah. TL;DR version of everything:
My mind works on a different wavelength than most people's.

Spoiler: More Rambling

It makes communication incredibly frustrating, and sometimes, I have extremely difficulty getting into the game (which I apparently am having right now). But when I DO get into the game, and lock into solid reads, then I become a pretty darn good scumhunter.

I'm working on briging the gap, so to speak. Making myself capable of getting into the game. No scumhunting? Yeah, unfortunately not. But I've got time set aside, right now, to get things straightened out, get my head into the game, and let's see if I can't pull the classic Mastin Move:

Nailing the entire scumteam on the first two pages. (Okay, so that was a fluke of nature on my [technically, though I consider it second] third game on-site, but that later moved to first five pages!)

The Yoshi half of you should remember

that

Mastin. The Mastin who knows how to scumhunt well, who finds the vital subtle links separating town from scum. Let's see if I can access him. (I hope so.)

TL;DR of that? Scumhunting Pending. Hopefully, I'll get something solid in by tonight.

[mastin2]

Also--I notice that you're referring to both us and Toon as "easy wagons" or "easy lynches." But one of the two (us) you think is scum and one (Toon) you think is null despite you apparently seeing the point of the case. Why the discrepancy?

While I SEE the Toon case, there are a few things I have observed from Toon which look town.

When I look at you, I don't see that town view.

But, admittedly?

I think I'm tunneling on you, so I need that re-read to revaluate things. See if I'm really tunneling, or if you're just that obvious scum.

[mastin2]

Just finished some VCA. It pretty strongly implicates both Silver and SubzeroSith as scum, actually. (Along with Amor...) Since I haven't done the reread of the thread, yet, I haven't thought out these reads in more detail, but their interaction certainly looks like it COULD be bussing...

(Still trying to analyze the VCA to make some initial conclusions. I've got some ideas for townsfolk which might surprise you, and some which obviously won't. Same goes for scum. Interesting note, is that in pretty much all the votecounts, Amor is someone who COULD be scum, and fits pretty well.

Yes, this means {Amor, SubSith, Silver} are my three main suspects right now based off of preliminary findings. Not sure on anyone else, though, and again, these reads might change. If I had to take a wild stab in the dark as to a fourth member, it'd be one of Zepher or {Surye,

Wraith

*}.

Just initial findings. But will ponder if this scumteam makes any sense by anything other than the VCA.)

*Working off of four scum, which seems right. Five's too many in a game this small.

[mastin2]

Yeah. Initial VCA might not be the most accurate tool, but I think it's done its job:

I have something to work from, something which--while not conclusive--is at least a starting point, to help me better my reads. We'll see how things go once I start the process. (It's rather complicated, what I have planned. But the end result might end up with me nailing the entire scumteam, if I'm correct. For instance, an alternative to Amor being scum is Thor being scum, but I simply found that slightly less likely by my initial findings paired with the VCA. If I complete my planned process, that theoretically could be reversed. We'll see...)

[mastin2]

Yeah...sorry, Silver. But you really look like you're bussing SubSith, who's bussing you back. That's just my impression on reading this page nine, but the reaction between you two seems quite forced.

[mastin2]

-Mastin
In our other game... what did VCA have you reading pine as (I honestly don't remember and want to know)?

Confirmed town before I DID VCA, so called confirmed town IN the VCA.

...Okay, so not quite.

...Actually, if memory serves, I was beginning to get suspicious as to just how many times the VCA showed evidence Pine'd be scum.

My town-read was degrading on Pine from 100% to something like 95%. The VCA which implicated him multiple times bumped it down to its final level, like 80-90% sure he was town.

In other words, yes, it caught Pine. I just didn't realize it until it was too late.

[mastin2]

So, yeah. I'm going to probably be wasting hours of my time in the future analyzing the VCA I did. It looks accurate, but my conclusions (while they seem to be backed up from what little I've seen) might not be correct as of now. I'll know in a couple days or so (in-game time), but for now, I'm going to put it aside. It's served its purpose for now; I've got my head in the game.

[mastin2]

Essentially, what I'm saying?

I think my VCA nailed it, is dead-on what the scum are this game. And if not, is pretty darn close.

My conclusions, however, FROM the VCA, I am not as sure on. There's only so much I can learn from it without wasting countless hours (with no guarantee that'll work) and/or a flip (which usually helps, but doesn't always).

Current conclusions (give or take--it's not an exact science ) implicate Silver and SubSith, along with {

Amor

, Thor} and one of {

Wraith

/Surye,

Zepher

/Deity}. Bolded my current choices of the choices. We'll see how these conclusions look when compared to actual in-thread evidence.

[mastin2]

-Mastin
that's fine, but what did you read pine as in VCA in there will be blood (Yes i'm basing your whole logic from that game and yes that will obviously affect me).

Wait a sec.

Just hit me.

If my VCA implicated Pine (which it did), and you're curious about my VCA this game (which implicates you)...

...Is that a scumclaim?

(This...probably makes more sense in my head than it does to anyone else, but the chain of thought is there, if you understand my wavelength of thought. )

[mastin2]

And for the record?

Yeah, my vote is now, honestly and legitimately, a serious vote, if you couldn't tell. It's not much, but what I've seen thusfar would leave me happy with a lynch on either of 'em. (Silver, SubSith.)

[mastin2]

...Yeah, that looks like a scumclaim to me.

[mastin2]

My vote's currently on Sub, Silver. Who I believe to be scum more than I believe you to be. I still believe both of you are (currently, at least), but SubSith more than you. If someone's chances of being scum start at 25%, you'd be at 50 or so, whereas SubSith is a good 60.

("...That doesn't look too bad." Keep in mind, I aint goin' above 90 without a role result. I am not going to exceed 80 without having done a thorough read, which I'm in the process of doing. Considering 25 is the baseline--instead of some people who start it at 50--that means that SubSith is a full 35% more likely to be scum than the default. Which--for those who like to start at 50--is actually an 85% chance of being scum.
THAT is pretty high up, for so early in the game. Hence, keeping my vote.)

[mastin2]

Users browsing this forum: mastin2, MrZepher
^Another wall incoming, I presume?

[mastin2]

So, based off of my reads so far...
silverbullet999 (2) - Maxous,

SubzeroSith

<--Good wagon.
Amor (2) - nhammen,

Surye

<--Fairly good wagon, but not the best.
Pine (3) – Wraith, jmurph3, DeityKabuto <--This wagon needs to die, believe it or not.
Thor665 (1) – Knight of Cydonia <--Lesser alternative to Amor.
SubzeroSith (2) –

Surye

, silverbullet999, mastin2 <--Winwagon.
Toon Fighter (4) –

SubzeroSith

, Pine, MrZepher, Thor665,

Amor

<--Yes. This wagon DOES need to die, believe it or not. It's not the best wagon.

More or less. (Though, again. Initial reads and analysis might not hold accurate when I look at things in more detail.)

[mastin2]

For the record, Zepher's chances of being the fourth scum (if my initial reads are correct) just increased.

[mastin2]

Also, why am I scum exactly?

You're not. You just have above-average chances of being scum by the

V

ote

C

ount

A

nalysis. (This is answering jmurph as well about what VCA stands for.)

Pine: you're obviously ignoring my posts, where I mention my VCA has actually quite effectively pinned you as scum, and me IGNORING the VCA caused my read to be wrong. (Also, I have the sneaking suspicion my VCA is far less accurate in two-scumteam games. >_<)

Wow, mastin, you sure made a lot of walls.

^Not reading the thread, but probably not scum. I only have one wall. Rest of my posts have been as short as I can possibly make 'em.

Interesting, how Thor goes after Amor. Interesting because my VCA suggests that if Amor isn't scum, Thor would be. Makes my town-view on Thor slightly larger, 'cause he'd know by now that if I thought he was scum, he'd get lynched pretty quickly.

[mastin2]

SubSith, I stopped reading your post when I realized you were leaving out the second half of the quote, which changed the entire meaning. (Maybe not an intentional misrep, but it's at the very least a misinterpretation, and when I realized that the assumption behind the post was wrong, I decided to ignore that entire rant.)

Yes. I think my VCA nailed all the scum.

No. I don't know all the scum without flips. Because my INTERPRETATION of the VCA isn't perfect.

I made that quite clear. (I did, didn't I? I certainly thought I mentioned that at some point.)

[mastin2]

Right. I did.

My conclusions, however, FROM the VCA, I am not as sure on.

Context is your friend!

[mastin2]

Spoiler: ANOTHER ramble about my VCA

Baseline for how I do VCA. This was made quite some time ago, so it's evolved somewhat since then (I made that before I had put it into use. Now that I'm actively employing it, it has gotten to be far more refined), but the essential formula is there.

It works. Really, it does. I already explained what my mistakes in using this have been. That I ignored the VCA--which had things RIGHT--and went with my reads OVER the VCA.

So, yeah. I'm going to be trusting that VCA a lot. Not so much now, for the reasons I've mentioned--I'm making educated guesses right now, essentially, as to who the scum are in the VCs. Without flips, there's only so much I can learn. If so much as a single assumption I make is off, my interpretation of the VCA changes entirely. I've learned as much as I can right now without making too many assumptions.

VCA is my most lethal weapon, what has most reliably caught scum for me. I have the process of CREATING the VCA down. That's why I say it's nailed the scum. I think it shows clear patterns, patterns which help condemn some individuals far more than others. However, I am still working on my PROCESSING of the VCA. My interpretation of the VCA has been far from perfect in past games. Incorrect assumptions change everything about the VCA. Assuming someone's town/scum when they aren't has historically been my largest mistake, for instance.

If that made sense. Don't make me ramble about VCA for a third time!

[mastin2]

You know, you two really aren't doing a good job of convincing me I'm wrong about the whole bussing thing.

[mastin2]

This is literally like the debate with me and Friend in TWBB except more extreme which commonly happens with me.

You and Friend were Town, so it was Town vs. Town.

You imply that this is the same, which'd mean it'd be town on town as well.

Yet your vote clearly indicates knowledge to the contrary, that you're thinking SubSith is scum.

Small contradiction, but noteworthy enough.

[mastin2]

Hey, guys, quick question--
Does Silver have a meta against bussing? (I mean, there are some players who don't bus. Like me.)
...No?
...Okay, then, how about DarthYoshi? No meta against bussing?
...Alright, then, how about ICEninja? Is he against bussing?

...Yeah. Unless any of the above were "yes", then I have one final question for you guys:

WTF MAKES YOU THINK THAT ONLY

ONE

OF THEM IS SCUM? >_<

Bussing's the new norm. This looks a lot like bussing.

Sure, I suppose it's possible only one of 'em is scum, but it's not CERTAIN that only one is scum. It's pretty much certain AT LEAST one of them is scum, but

not

certain that ONLY one of them is--that's what bussing is for, people! Especially mutual bussing--to make people think "nah, only one of 'em could POSSIBLY be scum after they fought like that..."

(Still need to read, though this is again what I am seeing: bussing. That's what it looks like. Not town-on-town. Not town-on-scum. Scum-on-scum.)

[mastin2]

I guess it's time we decide who's more scummier, Silver or Sub. I will expect the rest of you guys read thoroughly examine their actions, and I will do the same. Failing to do so, reads Anti-town.

Both?

But, yeah. SubSith more than Silver.

Since I've been sick, the time I was supposed to be using reading up on the game in more detail was instead spent sleeping the cold away, so unfortunately, I still have yet to even start my reread. :/ But when it's finished, I'll see about my conclusions.

[mastin2]

[b[Unvote, Vote: Silver[/b]
^Intentionally broken, as to 1: keep my vote on Sub, and 2: Not risk hammering Silver before I'm ready for the day to end, but consider that an honorary L-1, Silver.

In other words:

Claim Time, Silver

. Or it becomes real.

[mastin2]

I realized that as well immediately after I made the post and was thinking, "oh, crud, I hope I didn't just get myself modkilled". In Hindsight, probably shoulda been something like

HoS: Silver

.

(Also, to clarify--I don't want anyone hammering yet, even after Silver claims. I don't want a premature hammer to happen, and my experience is that when someone's put to L-1...they're almost universally hammered, anyway, despite the request not to. Sometimes it's the player at L-1 in question, too, if scum [or really emotional town]. Or it could be dumb-town. You get the idea. Lots of reasons why I prefer not to put someone at L-1 so soon.)

[mastin2]

My vote remains firmly parked on SubSith.

[mastin2]

silverbullet999 (7.5) – Maxous, SubzeroSith, Pine, | nhammen, DeityKabuto, Surye, /\ Knight of Cydonia <> mastin2
First three on last official votecount.
Second three within rapid succession of said votecount.
KoC hopped on a little bit later than that.
I never joined, but am an honorary member of this wagon, too.

The first group likely has one scum in it. (SubSith would be my guess.) The second group ALSO likely has scum in it, due to the size of the wagon. (Ditto.) In a game of this size, I'm assuming four scum, so that's pretty much a maximum of two in a wagon. (Admit it: as scum in a 4-man scumteam, you hesitate to join a wagon which already has two of your scumbuddies on it.)

This has me inclined to believe that KoC's placement was a town-placement, though I'm not positive. By that same logic, I believe nhammen joined at a time which wasn't scummy, too. Deity and Surye, on the other hand... (Only ONE of them, though--not both.)

"Why are you convinced there's two scum?"

Because it fits, regardless of Silver's alignment, 'cause on an L-1 wagon, I'd expect two scum. ESPECIALLY if Silver's town, but still EXTREMELY likely if Silver's scum due to a little thing we call, oh, y'know...

BUSSING.

*coughcoughsubsithcoughcough*

[mastin2]

Ah, lots of content. Love when that happens. Sorry, guys. Since a lot of it is directed at me, I'll have to wall a little.

Deity: My normal way of scumhunting is wall-posting. That's more anti-town than my current method, because it kills the game. Gives better info, sure, but it's not doing any good if nobody reads it. So, I am developing this method. (Consider me kinda like a newbie--I haven't settled down into a posting style, so to speak, since my return.) Simply put, my way is a different form of scumhunting, neither superior nor inferior to the normal way.

Spoiler: How many times must I ramble?

"this is right regardless of silver's alignment" thing.

And why wouldn't it be right? On a L-1 wagon, would you honestly expect only ONE scum? On an L-1 wagon, would you expect THREE scum on it when there's only four?

No and no.

Silver's alignment is irrelevant.

This was the case in TWBB, too--Pine was scum, and got wagoned to 7. I accurately predicted the number of scum present, and it didn't MATTER if Pine was town or scum.

Simply put, under current site meta, the alignment of the wagons doesn't matter. It still contains the exact same amount of scum. (At least, in a game this small. In a larger game, sure, maybe it's different between town and scum. But the smaller the game, the less likely there's any dang difference.)

This effect is easily provable. Just look at smaller games. Newbies, Minis, smaller Larges. Look at who is wagoned. Is there less scum on them because they're scum?

No. The main difference between townwagons and scumwagons isn't that there's more scum on a townwagon than a scumwagon. It's that the scumwagon has a tendency of falling apart faster than the townwagon.

I know that my mind works on slightly different wavelengths than most people, but to me, this is just effing common sense speaking. Others might not think about it, but I dare you to make a serious argument against me, a serious argument that I'm wrong.

It's just not possible, because I'm right:

Silver's alignment has no relevance on the number of scum present.

As for Silver's claim--put bluntly, I wouldn't have believed anything OTHER than Vanilla. If he was desperate scum and claimed a PR, I'd lynch him then and there, end the day early. Since he claimed VT, it's possible (albeit unlikely) he's town. I still think he's scum; he's just not as scummy as SubSith is.

SubSith: The only way my vote is moving is if I find someone scummier than my current vote.

Have to depart; will return shortly and resume from page 14.

[mastin2]

To elaborate:
I never intended to move my vote from SubSith to Silver unless Silver claimed to be a Power Role. It was always meant to be on--and remain on--SubSith, who I feel has a greater chance of being scum than Silver. (Even though I think they both are scum, still.)

[mastin2]

@Mastin2: Can you give us some non-VCA reasons why Silverbullet and Subzero are mafia?

Working on it. Mainly, it's VCA, and a feeling which isn't quite "gut", but has no other word to better describe it. This is deeper than gut, more meaningful. That whole "different level" thing coming into play--it's subtle, perhaps even subconscious.

I'm trying to explain the read in more traditional terms, but have slacked off due to being sick.

[mastin2]

For the record, I have started my reread. But it'll take a long time for me to finish it. I'm trying to do something which I haven't done in a long time. (Nail the scumteam on day one. I've done it multiple times before, but always in a newbie game. It's harder to do with double [four] the amount of scum, but theoretically possible. A lot of the assumptions I make might prove to be inaccurate in the long-run, but I think the risk of miscalculating is worth the potential reward.)

[mastin2]

For the record, progress has been kinda slow for me, sorry. I'll inform you of any reads in need of updating, since I believe I've gotten my thoughts out there already. (SubSith, Silver, Amor/Thor, and one of {Wraith, Surye, Zepher, someoneelseIdonotrememberoffthetopofmyhead}, if memory serves. It's still my current read.)

[mastin2]

From you? Kinda used to it.

[mastin2]

Alright.

List of those I think are Scum: SubSith, Silver, Amor,
\/ one of the below which isn't Thor.
List of those I Suspect: Thor (in place of Amor), Wraith, Zepher, Surye, Deity? (was that my fourth? Can't remember >_<) (but only one of them IS scum).
List of those I think are Town: Nhammen, Pine, NS (yes, really), Uite, Toon, Maxous, KoC. (To varying degrees, of course. Some of the names are obviously stronger than others.)

[mastin2]

I will not take part in a Silver lynch. I'm having one of those feelings.
One of those moments which say, "STOP!"

Last time, I listened to said feeling, it was correct. And my original suspect was scum.

I'm gonna go with my history on this one. That is, I refuse to join the silver wagon and will continue to push SubSith. I'll accept the consequences if I'm wrong. But you're not getting me on there. Even though Silver was a scumread. I'm not going to go against this feeling.

Confirm Vote: SubZeroSith

.

[mastin2]

That's not the opinion I was expecting. I was kinda thinking that if Silver flipped scum that people'd suddenly be suspicious of me for not following through.

But, yeah. I know it makes no rational sense, but when I have one of those feelings, I can't go against them. Meaning I'd rather no-lynch right now than see a Silver lynch. Not the smartest play, but, well...it's just that feeling. I have no words to describe it. It's something which just hit me. Something clicked into place, snappeed, which made me suddenly against the lynch. And I have no clue what. It just happened, and I'm sticking to it.

[mastin2]

Whoah, really?

You have 'em, too?

Heh. Thought I was the only one.

But, yes. I have faked it before. Once.

When I first Hydra'd with Nacho as Calcifer, in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2. I faked a strong town-read on my scumbuddy.

I tend not to try and fake them that often, because I don't really understand them when I'm town. So, when I'm scum, I don't know how I'd act well enough if I were town to pull it off very often.

This read isn't a fake, though. I meant it. If I had the time to figure out why I felt this way, we might be able to understand things a bit better.

(Sorry. Feeling a bit incoherent at the moment.)

[mastin2]

Silver's at L-1. This does not amuse me.

[mastin2]

Hey, guys?

Guess what?

I investigated Silver as innocent during the day!
Yes this is a serious claim of using a daycop ability.

Now get off that wagon, 'kay?

[mastin2]

I am not willing to vote for Toon.
He's one of my surprising town-reads.

I AM willing to go on Amor, under ONE condition:

If Amor flips town, lynch Thor

.

If people agree, then they have my support.
Otherwise, it's still SubzeroSith for me.

Just not Silver.

[mastin2]

If mastin survives tonight, I propose we lynch either him on silverbullet tomorrow. he may be pulling a gambit here and be scum with silverbullet

Good Idea, I suppose. Of course, for this to be valid, we must ensure no protective roles are on me.

Any Protective Roles: Do NOT be on me OR silver tonight.

Let's see if the scum have the guts to kill me or Silver.

Trust me, I know what I'm doing.

[mastin2]

Mastin, can you explain why you investigated someone who was, at the time, a strong scumread for you? How is that in line with your discussion article on cop methodology?

Silver gained respect from me in TWBBS after becoming a Neighbor as being a competent player. My scumread was also weakened by certain posts. More than that, Silver's opinions this game looked like--while not necessarily correct--they were on to something. And Silver isn't likely going to be NK'd, not even after this claim. Silver's only risk was lynching. That's why I debated the target (Silver) before I got a result, as well as whether to claim after. Inevitably, I decided the smartest play was to claim, because I felt that if I didn't, I'd regret it more than if I did.

More or less.

[mastin2]

Please no Toon lynch. Toon's one of my few town-reads which have remained strong town-reads.

It should be Amor or SubzeroSith today, in my opinion.

[mastin2]

STOP LYNCHING TOON!

[mastin2]

Here's an idea, SubzeroSith--
Why don't you claim, then we'll start talkin'. Otherwise, we start by hangin'. You, that is, not Toon.

Toon shouldn't HAVE to claim. You SHOULD.

[mastin2]

silverbullet999 (2) – nhammen, Knight of Cydonia <--Leftovers.
mastin2 (1) - Nobody Special <--NS is a lurker, but is town.
Amor (1) –Thor665 <--Thought this was a larger wagon!
nhammen (1) – silverbullet999 <--Worthless wagon, Silver.
DeityKabuto (1) – Uite <--While there has been some INTEREST in a Deity lynch, it is not the course of action we need to take today.
SubzeroSith (5) – mastin2, Pine, Toon Fighter, Surye, DeityKabuto <--Consider this L-1, SubzeroSith. You're the lead wagon, and that means you die when time runs out.
Toon Fighter (3) – Maxous, SubzeroSith, Amor <--Please don't do this wagon.
Not Voting (3) – MrZepher, Wraith, jmurph3 <--Alarmingly, I believe I've seen pretty much all of these people post/be online recently...and they have no votes... :/

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Cop Play

Any other cops out there would do well to check mastin out, if they exist.

This is horrible, HORRIBLE Cop play. I've essentially taunted the scum, dared them to attack me and silver, specifically asking protective roles to be off of me and Silver to ensure the Mafia have a clear shot if they have the guts to take it.

Meaning that I'm painting a target on my head, which'll get me killed during the night. Something I specifically warn cops to try and avoid.

And let's say I don't die.

I'll be suspected for the whole dang game for this. Meaning I'm ALSO at risk of being LYNCHED, unless the Cop outs their innocent on me to protect me.

Which means, I fail in BOTH aspects to Good Cop Play. Be it lynch or kill, I've sealed my fate with this claim, within the next, oh, five or so phases. I won't live past then. I can almost guarantee it. Hence, wasted Cop investigation.

It MIGHT be acceptable to investigate Silver, but doubtful.

As for the contradiction:
Explained already. Silver's a competent player, and one who has a bit of an unusual, slightly-unorthodox brand of logic from what I've observed. Who won't be NK'd unless the scum take my taunt, and preferably won't be lynched, either. Sound kinda familiar? Silver's not at, say, a Pine level of similarity to me, but he's still similar enough that having him clear seemed like a good idea at the time.

[mastin2]

I'd still prefer a SubzeroSith lynch, and even if I didn't, it looks like a SubzeroSith lynch has more support than an Amor lynch. But if it came down to it being a Toon Lynch or an Amor lynch, I'd definitely go with the Amor lynch and join ya. Otherwise, my vote is still where it needs to be.

[mastin2]

Unvote, Vote: Amor

. Please not Toon.

[mastin2]

DK is nullish as he gets a pass for the moment on grounds of cluelessness (no offense, dude), but among the other three—Pine/Toon/Surye—I am dead certain you will find at least 1-2 scum.

You're correct, in that your wagon likely has 1-2 scum in it. But you're incorrect as to who. It's Deity and/or Surye; I'm pretty sure of that. Mainly because I have a town-read on Pine and Toon.

Speaking of which, with Thor AND Jmurph ALSO as confirmed town, this really helps me with my own analysis, which'll help me conclude how to play tomorrow. (Regrettably, it looks like I will not be nightkilled in this game, at all. Three masons is a solid three nights of nightkills. ) Help me analyze the situation better.

We get the flip today (if it's Toon, it'll be town, if it's Amor, it'll be scum), plus the info from all the confirmed town, and can use it all to find the scum.

I know, it doesn't look like that good of a situation, but trust me, this puts us at a far better advantage than you might think.

[mastin2]

Why? Maybe it's 1 AM speaking, but I don't recall you ever giving a good reason for your vocal opposition to Toon's lynch.

He's been a town-read since pretty much my entrance into the game? More or less, yeah, that.

[mastin2]

Mastin, I claimed. Let's talk.

Alright. Which ones were those, again? I might not be able to answer before deadline, but I will be able to answer Day 2. (Since there's no way the scum are letting three mutually-confirmed-town live the whole game. )

[mastin2]

But WHY is Toon a Town read?

Asking me to explain my town-reads doesn't end very well.
He just is one. I have trouble explaining it, but from the moment I saw Toon, I thought Town. Scummy, but town.

Kinda like you, I suppose. Was initially suspicious of you, but later thought things over and concluded this was the town-you. (This also addresses Thor, sort-of.)

Put bluntly--
I CAN

explain

my town-reads on Pine and Toon, but not within the alloted time. It'd have to wait 'til Day 2, since I can't write out the reasons why briefly. There's no way to do it without a long wall, essentially, something which takes too much time for me to finish today.

To answer Thor about Zepher:
Right now, my suspects are Amor, One of (possibly both) {Deity, Surye}, and POSSIBLY Zepher. But I need to review the game during the night. That's the perfect chance for me to make sense of this mess.

Put simply, I think the town got off on the wrong foot, but that we can turn this around into a guaranteed victory. Let's hope I don't slack off.

[mastin2]

So, brief rundown of reads for all (theoretically) possible lynches today:

4. Wraith <--Possible suspect, but very weak. Overall has been a slight town-read, but that was when all the confirmed town were still suspects.
5. Amor <--I'm around 75% sure Amor's scum, right now.
6. nhammen <--Ditto.
7. DeityKabuto <--Slight scum-lean before, bit stronger now.
8. Pine <--Town-read.
9. MrZepher <--Slight scum-lean.
10. Surye <--Same as Deity.
11. Nobody Special <--Weak town-read. Still holds. If Amor flips town, I'll be thinking NS is possible scum, but my opinion is that most likely, town.
13. Uite <--Ditto. Was a slight town-read.
15. Toon Fighter <--Town-read.
16. Maxous <--Old town-read. Still holds, I guess.
17. Knight of Cydonia <--Ditto. Has gone back and forth a lot today. I've overall been leaning town, though.

[mastin2]

Reduced (as in, eliminating my town-reads), that's

4. Wraith <--Current Super-Weak-Suspect.
5. Amor <--Scum.
6. nhammen <--Neutral.
7. DeityKabuto <--Scum?
9. MrZepher <--Scum-lean.
10. Surye <--Scum?
17. Knight of Cydonia <--Neutral. (Small town-lean.)

Seven names. Four of which'd be scum.

I'm thinking there's something wrong with my scum list. So many of these names are far too weak of scumreads. Amor's the only strong scum-read I have, right now. And he better flip scum, because if he doesn't, literally nothing makes sense anymore.

[mastin2]

Actually, they're not strong town reads.
They're town-reads, which happen to have persevered throughout all of the things which should've weakened 'em to be neutral/scumreads. So they're stronger than any other town-reads, I suppose you could say.

(But yeah. It's more of a technicality than anything else. If I considered them strong town-reads, I'd list them as "Town." rather than "Town-read." Small subtle difference, which in the long-run doesn't make much of a difference, but still something which I feel is best to have clarified.)

[mastin2]

Not sure I've got these quotes right, as I moved thjings around a bit to categorize 'em into spoilers.

Spoiler: Why The Scum Are At A Disadvantage

The chance of town winning now that 4 power roles are outed on day 1 is, well, I'm not really putting much worry in to this game anymore.

An incorrect attitude. While the situation is far from ideal, there's a significant chance of catching scum, right now. That's almost a quarter of the town being confirmed, on day one. The scum really, REALLY hate that, because it essentially has screwed them over by narrowing down our lynches far more than they would prefer. Like I said. They have to waste THREE NIGHTKILLS IN A ROW to get rid of three mutually-confirmed-town, leaving other power roles alive to do their thing. Either that, or they leave the Masons Alive and we narrow our lynch pool down every single day, by both them killing unconfirmed town and by us lynching unconfirmed town.

Simply put, it's lose-lose for them.

Spoiler: Pine Stuff

See, that post makes me think that the presumably-impossible might actually be true; that scum claimed Mason, and dragged their buddies along with them.

Indeed, it's scary how you and I seem to think alike. Since I had thought of it being possible, too.

But use common sense. Even if they DID do that in a massive gambit, it's far more likely they're masons. If all three are still alive Days 3-4, then we can talk. (Sice, y'know, it's a bit unusual for three mutually-confirmed-town to be still alive so late into the game.) Otherwise, they're going to be dead soon enough without us wasting a lynch on 'em.

this is actually the first where I think we're both Town and we agree on most things.

And that's what's so frightening to me. >_<

I think you're probscum buddying up to a town PR so that he doesn't investigate you.

I've considered Pine being scum, but don't think so. My history of reading Pine is horrendous (so far, I have yet to read him as the correct alignment ), so I'm definitely not ruling him out as scum, but there's a lot pointing to him being town. (Just don't ask me to leave the site if I'm wrong. )

I still think nham is the way to go.

You have no support for this. Nhammen's neutral to most people, it seems.

Spoiler: My Play

If he is town, his play so far has been really quite poor.

Indeed it has been. It'll take a massive leap in levels overnight, though, because I have a plan, and I think it'll work.

The town SHOULD be wondering right now whether it is in their best interests to be so quick to follow his lead.

Following my lead is a horrible idea. I'm not omnipotent; I'm just as likely (if not moreso ) to be wrong as anyone else. Taking my opinion into good, long consideration (and maybe concluding that you agree) is definitely a good idea, sure, but not blindly following.

but you're likely to die soonish

Heck no I'm not. Don't get me wrong--I'd love to die and confirm Silver as innocent with my flip, I'd love for the scum to kill me during the night because they're afraid of me, I'd love the scum to take my taunt and kill me, I'd love to stop the scum from taking out three confirmed town...

...But the scum are (presumably) not that stupid. If I die any time soon, it'd be by lynch, unfortunately.

Not saying Mastin is a bad person or a bad player (my first game here was with him as an IC and it was an extremely enjoyable game, and he actually DID correctly call the scumteam on D1 then), but, at least sitting from my vantage point, it is difficult to see how Mastin's play has helped the town particularly if we still end up lynching a townie.

I'm a pretty likeable guy, actually. But, yeah. I'm thinking that some time during the summer, I might go back and do a Newbie Game or two, since it seems to be the only place I'm NOT a bad player.

I agree, that Day 1, my play probably has been terrible, and it'll likely get me lynched within the next three days. But I'm not going down without taking out all the scum with me. By which, I mean that I'm going to find 'em all, prove I'm right, and hopefully get 'em lynched.

either Mastin is scum, or Mastin is town. If it is the former, well, y'all will probably lynch him before LyLo anyways. But if it is the latter, his play has not, imo, been good for the town, but y'all are following him anyways. So, we are trying to get town to rethink that.

Mostly true, 'cept for one detail:
I'm pretty much lynched as the latter before Lylo, too.

@Everyone - who has a town read on Toon Fighter and why?

I do, and can't explain within deadline.

[mastin2]

I can see it being Rolefishing, but currently do not believe it was.

(To clarify about Thor being the voice of reason: his thoughts on the whole debate last page seemed pretty dead-on.)

[mastin2]

As ISOs can make someone look scummy when taken out of context, so too can they make someone look town when taken out of context.

[mastin2]

Is Scum Mason a bastard-only role?

Indeed. Deemed illegal in the new Normal Guidelines.

[mastin2]

This is a better Day One than I was expecting. I'm thinking of breaking up opinions in a read.
Pro-*this lynch*
Pro-*other lynch*
Fine With Both
Not Fine With Either

Because this game has had multiple times when there were two leading wagons. Silver/Sub, Sub/Toon, and Amor/Toon, among others. I'll also be looking at the difference between where there mouth is (what they say) and where their vote is. (What they actually did.)

I'm going to have a long, sleepless night. 22 pages of reading, multiple reads of the game in different ways, taking different things into perspective...

Well, at least it's not 42 cases!

[mastin2]

Right. So, I can almost guarantee the scum are in {KoC,

Zepher

, Uite,

Surye, Deity

, Maxous,}
There was another name in there: Wraith. We have a good vig, 'cause I was planning on lynching Wraith today.

Now, here's why:

I've determined there's 1-2 scum within {Wraith, Zepher, Deity}. With Wraith flipping town, that means that one of--possibly both of--Zepher and Deity are scum.

I also determined that Surye has an 80% chance of being scum.

Which means--if I am correct--that the scumteam is {Amor, Zepher, Deity, Surye}.

Unfortunately, I haven't finished this, so I'm not confident enough to build a case. However, some things I CAN tell you:

-Toon is confirmed town.
-

Vote: Deity

is a good wagon.
-nhammen's town, too. He was after Amor for most of yesterday, if you recall. (Admittedly, I haven't checked the tone of his posts to see if it's bussing, but I don't think it is.)
-Nobody Special is also town, so don't wagon him.

We've got this game won.

[mastin2]

Also: if I am wrong about the scum, in order from most suspicious to least suspicious from the rest of the list (roughly, anyway), it'd be KoC, Uite, Maxous.

[mastin2]

I am willing to explain my reads if necessary, but I didn't finish my analysis, unfortunately, so my conclusions are not as concrete as I would prefer. My confirmed town would be Toon (100%) and NS (95%), though--as in, those names aren't going to change by my more detailed analysis at all.

[mastin2]

Why no protection? Why did you predict the mafia wouldn't kill you?

Simple, really. We had three mutually confirmed town. Protecting me would be a waste, because killing me would be a waste. If that makes sense.
My plan was my strategy for re-reading the game and getting solid reads. It was quite elaborate, but I unfortunately did not have the time to finish it.

. In this post, Amor seems to be using an associative tell by addressing two now confirmed town and then DK. DK is almost without doubt his buddy from that alone.

Whoah. Hadn't noticed that. It's a solid tell, to say the least.

I require explanation of why Toon is Town to you, Mastin.

Alright, brief summary:
1: VCA. Toon looks favorable on it, pretty much the whole way through.
2: Being the Counter-wagon to Amor yesterday. Tell me, Pine, when was the last time you saw BOTH the lead wagons going on be on scum, in a single-faction game?
It doesn't happen. Toon is Town, because his wagon was the counter-wagon to a scumwagon, and therefore he is town.
3: Mislynchable. Toon has been acting a bit like an idiot (no offense meant, Toon), so is an easy mislynch.
4: Scumhunting. Toon is doing some quite legitimate scumhunting.
5: General reads of the game. Look at who've been pushing Toon as scum--Amor was one of them, for instance.
6: Gut. I know, the weakest of my reasons by far, but still a legitimate reason.

Toon's town for so many reasons it's not even funny; this is just a summary and I could ramble all day about why Toon's not scum.

If one of these is actually incorrect, it is Zepher.

This is my view as well.

Toon, myself, jmurph, Pine, and nhammen all vote Deity.
I share Toon's view. I think all people there are town, but the weakest town on the wagon are Pine and nhammen, just for the record.

I'm pretty sure this is a scumclaim. Let's review, shall we?
1: I know, this is general mod meta, but roleblocker is a far more powerful role in the hands of scum than it is town. Which is why so many mods give scum one--it works.
2: He used it on me, the guy who claimed a cop result on Silver. This sounds an awful lot like an attempt to block me from doing something last night.
3: His claim is actually that of a Jailkeeper, not Roleblocker.
4: I specifically told no protective roles to be on me. The fact that half his role is one is reason enough for me to want him dead itself.
5: Just feels wrong.

I can see it as potentially being wrong (it IS a fast wagon, after all), but I still think Deity's scum.

Nevermind. The lynch today is either Deity or Pine, now that Pine's counter-claimed. And guess who has no reason to counter-claim as scum? (Hint: their username ends with the letter "e".)

Bussing. Deity's giving us one confirmed scum, likely one buddy, and probably one townie. (If that really was the scumteam this game, well, then, quadz will have to call the game ruined. >_<)

Conclusions:

-Deity's scum.
-If Deity truthfully named his buddies, the game's ruined.
-If Deity's WIFOM'ing us, he still likely included ONE buddy, and it's almost certainly not Pine who just CC'd him.

[mastin2]

Haven't decided, yet. Considering you, Pine, but that's kinda a wasted result, in my opinion. Considered confirming Toon for ya, but that seems more like a way of spitefully saying "I told you so". Considering nhammen, since his reads this game seem good and I'd love to have him be confirmed town. Only concerning thing about him is that he's likely to get NK'd.

Yeah, probably nhammen.

[mastin2]

For the record:
Deity's our lynch for today, and then we vig Surye. I'll be telling the town what to do D3 depending on Surye's flip. (Since we still have confirmed town alive, and therefore I still will not die.)

[mastin2]

Alright. I have a result. I'm not going to say on who, or what it is. That's for Day Three.

Once again, I'll stress that no protective role be on me, and dare the scum to kill me. Because if they don't, I'll be leading the town tomorrow to victory. Pure and simple.

[mastin2]

And who's to say my result would be lost?

[mastin2]

I did no such thing, Pine.

My results are real, but I'm confident they won't be lost. That does not automatically mean something like Oracle. Like I said. Scum are free to NK me if they choose to, since I'm specifically telling the protective roles to be off of me.

I'm just 90% sure the scum have better targets in mind.

And anything beyond what I've said right now will be explained Day Three.

'Sides. Our vig's busy. Let 'em do their work. They did an excellent job killing Wraith (who woulda been a real risk of being lynched today had they not). They don't need to waste time on me. Not yet, anyway. Not when they've got the best target they possibly could: Surye.

Really, there's only one way Surye could be town--and that way will wait until Day Three, when Surye has been vigged.

Honestly, though, I don't blame Deity for essentially giving up: Godfather lynch Day One, scum lynched day two (presumably their roleblocker, leaving night roles free to massacre them), many confirmed town alive...we really can't lose this game, right now. It's a guaranteed victory.

[mastin2]

Sure. But I'm not going to.

With Deity's scumlynch today,
And Surye's flip overnight,

I'm quite confident I can win this game, regardless of what Surye DOES flip. If he's town, I know the scum. If he's scum, I still have a good idea who the last scum is.

Like I said. We can't lose this game, anymore. So if I end up dead some time within the next few phases, no big deal.

And I still maintain that it'll be by lynch, rather than kill, because the scum aren't going to kill me.
1: Better targets are alive.
2: There is interest (albeit extremely weak interest) in a mastin-lynch. Scum aren't going to kill someone who could be lynched.
3: They think I'm bluffing, though I'm not. Honestly, I think most people right now would think I am bluffing about being able to win the game Day Three. But I'm dead-serious, and I'm looking forward to the scum's horrified looks when they fail to NK me and realize I'm right.

[mastin2]

Indeed. Walling is a consistent problem for me.

Spoiler: Past Games

If you want a list of my games, it's on my Main's account, Mastin. They're all two years old, of course, since I took a long hiatus. (My recommendation is to view them on the old forum rather than the archives, by replacing the "http://www.mafiascum.net" with the "http://67.222.17.61". It's a little work, but it makes for far better reading. The archives are...a bit messed up. )

The only time I didn't wall was in the games I got lethargic in. As in, lazily lurked around somehow managing to be more anti-town than WALLING. (I know, hard to believe, but I did it. As both alignments, too! Yes, I was a VI two years ago. )

My more recent games are also under the Wiki. Forget what section it's called. "New Games", "I'm Back", or something like that. Fair warning, it only covers up to TWBBS, since after that, I switched to mastin2 (long story--ask Pine ) and have neglected to put my new games on there since then. (It's on my to-do list? )

Spoiler: Other Ways To Meta Me

Alternatively, just look at almost every single Large Game which is running right now, or has recently ended. I'm in every single one I could get into. The oldest being Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, as a hydra with Nacho, Calcifer.

I've got exactly two games which aren't Large Normals since my return: both Newbies. One where I met Nacho, the other where I met DarthYoshi (nhammen was present for that one). I don't keep track of Newbie Game Numbers nearly as well as I used to, though, so their exact numbers elude me. (I can tell you all about 688, 735, 742, a few in the 760s, and that general range, but that's about it. The older the game, the easier it is to remember its name, since it holds a lot of significance.))

Thinking of where I'm most concise, it'd probably be the games like this one: where I lock on immediately (alright, so I didn't lock on immediately in this game, but I DID lock on! ) and don't get emotional. If I don't get solid reads, I wall. If I get emotional, I wall. If I have neither, I tend not to. The newbie game with Nhammen and DarthYoshi is a good example of what happens when I lock on and don't get emotional--I had maybe two or three long walls there, if memory serves, and the rest of my posts were quite short. (Then again, my memory's terrible. )

Spoiler: Rambling About How I See My Play

I have NO clue how he plays, at all, either town or scum, or 3rd party.

A brief description of my style is that since I am so fresh out of retirement, I haven't settled down INTO a style, yet, and that it's changing with every game. HOWEVER, it is honed with off-site experience combined with wisdom of my time away and time spent reading MD along with refining my methods of scumhunting, so my play is slowly improving in every game as both alignments.

Yet some general trends: as scum, I start out calm, cool, and logical and am generally seen as town by most people. I try to put myself into my town meta, and it works beautifully. (However, I often feel trapped by it, and lock into a course of action which I feel I cannot back out of as scum more often than I do as town.) Initially, at least. Sooner or later, the facade cracks, and my mask comes crashing down when my emotions start to pour in--for instance, insulting me in certain ways has a funny way of making me quite sensitive as scum, whereas when I'm town, it seems to not bother me. (I dunno why.)

As town, I'm extremely impulsive and have certain compulsions. For better or for worse, it means that I tend to take a lot of risks that aren't exactly optimal play. While I do gambit on occasion as scum, I much prefer gambitting as town, for instance. That's pretty much as much as I know about my town meta. (When I'm town--like this game--I have trouble describing my town meta, since that's what I'm doing when I AM town. Only when I'm scum can I go into greater details about what my town meta is, since the better I get the details down, the better I perform. )

I have only one game as a third party, and I do hope it stays that way for the rest of my mafia career, given how disastrous it was. The Large "Normal" run by Jebus, with Llamafluff as the backup mod, which is one of the reasons we have such strict normal guidelines today. I was a Lyncher, outed Day One by a JOAT who Rolecopped me.

I truthfully told the town everything--my true target, what I was planning on doing, how I was planning on winning (my target was RedCoyote, I wanted to claim cop with a guilty on him day two since I couldn't have RC die before day two else I'd lose), everything. And proceeded to try and legitimately scumhunt...but people did not take well to me calling myself an "honorary townie". We fought, for...was it 30 pages or 50? Well, we fought for a lot of pages, to say the least, and I got distracted, emotional, stopped scumhunting and worked on defense. It didn't work; I got lynched Day One. When the game was over and it was revealed I was truthful about my targets (the scum won, by the way), I grumbled an "I told you so!" about my play having town's interests in mind.

So, to summarize my third party play: I try to play third party identical to town, but when people attack me, I react exactly as scum, so it's the alignment which is kinda a bridge between the two sides, ironically enough.

Hope that helps.

[mastin2]

Oh, almost forgot.

This is my first game with him (if memory serves).

Technically, I replaced into a game where you were already dead. But yeah, you're after my time. '09 was my year, '10 was my hiatus.

I'm getting a tad uncomfortable with his Absolute Surety that we're going to win.

Call it arrogance if you like. But I simply see no way we do NOT win this, right now. We're in that excellent position, where everything's perfect for a win.

No matter how the night goes. I wouldn't care if we lost two PRs during Night Two. We'd still win the game. It's that simple. I'm confident we're going to win.

Let me know if you would or wouldn't mind me taking the time to explore his meta and see what (if anything) I find.

A brief summary of me is that I'm a messed-up guy.

Something I also neglected to mention in my above post is that I frequented MD for quite some time. You can see a lot of the threads I started in MD on my wiki, or you can even do a search limited to discussion with my name (that is, Mastin, not mastin2) as the author--you'll find plenty of posts and a good insight into my mind that way.

[mastin2]

Sad, but true.
As the saying goes, what works in theory...
(Doesn't in reality.

...
......

Though that doesn't mean I haven't tried!

)

[mastin2]

Since I'm a sentimental guy, I decided to further my ramble about my past with links. On my wiki, it's the section Games Completed. Also worth a look is games and MD.

Spoiler: Old Games

Games not linked on my wiki are Phables Deathnote, Stars Aligned I, MtG Parallel Universe Tar's Subgame, Open 155 Jungle, Large 92, Large 96 Emerald, Large 98 Apennine, and Newbie 804.

In Chronological Order:
Newbie 688.
Technically, anyway. As my wiki says, I don't count it as my game. It's important to note, however, in that it molded parts of my general playstyle and also influenced my view on Mafia.

Newbie 735, my first real game.
Newbie 742, replaced in as the same role soon after I did in 735. This game was faster-paced, though, and my part in it ended sooner, ironically. I got my arrogance mainly from my success in this game.
Newbie 763 was both good and bad: my play was taking a turn for the worse, but I had a great player to snap me into my senses, at least, temporarily.
Mini 760--Bleach Mafia. My first non-newbie, I actually got one scum! (...Before they were scum. ) Mediocre play by me, not good, but not bad.
Newbie 762, started just before 763, obviously, but ended later. Interesting, in that it was my first game where I tasted the bitterness of defeat. Far from my last, though.
Open 141, one of my lowest points in scumhunting, where everything went wrong for me, but my team still won. I certainly didn't deserve it.
Open 145, first scum game completed. (Though not the first scum game I got.) I was under limited access and stretched far beyond my limit, and it cost me, because I refused to replace out like I had in 688.
Lynch All Lurkers, same exact problem as Polygamist Mafia above.
Newbie 779 is me as lethargic scum. It actually happens more often when I'm town.
Mafia 91. A mediocre game, but I think I did fairly decently in it.
Minin 791 is a more typical example of lethargic-Mastin.
Mini 767, my greatest success. The ONLY time I've been to 3-p lylo. More than that, this is the method I adapted for reading games I replaced into after that, because it worked: I caught scum! We won. Of note, I seem to be rather cautious in lylo, baiting--trapping, you could say--the scum into voting first.
Open 148, where calling out a scumteam backfired horrendously on me. Especially since said "scumteam" was Yosarian2 and iamausername. They were on the same team, though! (...As Vanilla Townies. )
Newbie 748, my first scum game. (688 doesn't count.) Also one of my greatest. I claimed cop, because I have a fondness for that role and realized my play fit perfectly with me being one. (And, yes, I bussed back then but it was a different me. Keep in mind, this was my FIRST scum game, before I realized I couldn't win as scum when solo'ing and that I therefore couldn't bus.) Probably one of the games with the most content by me, as I REALLY wanted to win that game, but slowly saw it slip away, piece by piece.
Mean Mod Lovefest. Run around the same time as my modded game, for the curious. I suffered from reverse-tunnel-vision on Kai, but I think I woulda overcame it, had I not sacrificed myself to stop the lynch of a strong town-read of mine. (And it was right, unlike with Pine. )
Bleach Mafia Soul Society. I was getting increasingly irrational as my games went along. I also was flaking at about this time, due to access issues which resulted in my year-long hiatus.
Mini 778 shows how me getting emotional can happen as both alignments. My emotions got the better of me and I never scumhunted, because I got distracted. To put it mildly. Interestingly enough, in this game I made an avatar bet. We mutually lost. I had an avatar I hated on, and because I flaked before the deal was over, it stayed on until I could fix it three months later.
Boost Mafia 2, an absolute failure on my part.
Open 131. Lethargic-town-Mastin strikes again! With predictable results: sucking.
Mini 808. I started out this game with the intention of not walling--first time I had ever done that! By now, I was well aware of the destructive tendencies my posts had, so I tried to put a stop to it. Unfortunately, I did so a little too well. I wasn't lethargic this game, but I was unobservitive, missing a lot of things I would have it I was paying closer attention. The fact that this was on the time I was at the verge of flaking certainly didn't help.

I should also mention that in Stars Aligned, I was a Cultist (Mafia), in MtG, Tar made a post restriction specifically for me which limited both the words/post I could make as well as the number of posts (it worked, too! I was more concise than I had ever been! ), Emerald City is the often-talked-about game which got Khan his nomination for Khan Man (among others) for the Miller play, Apenine Mafia is one of my most lethargic games, and Open 155 was a fair scum performance by me--still one of my top plays--until my lack of access meant I had to be replaced. Oh, and 804 was a complete failure. Rather (if it's the game I'm thinking of, anyway), I had reads which were SPOT-ON, but I didn't get caught up until half-way through lylo, well after I should have, and got replaced by someone who pretty much had the exact opposite viewpoint of things as me, so they lost. It had someone who had a similar playstyle to me, which meant I knew they were town, but everyone else thought they were scum. (Kinda like Pine, but unlike Pine, I was actually right. )

Spoiler: Newer Games

Newbie 1024. My first game since I returned, which Ironically ran with parallels to both 688 and 748. 688, in that I was replaced, I don't consider it to be one of my games, my replacement did better than me, their partner (Nacho) was experienced, and their partner's slot had three players. 742, in that my playstyle was quite similar. Though here's a key defining moment in my mafia career:
I had the chance to hammer Nacho, but I didn't think I could pull off the win alone. I was 'suspicious' of him, sure, but I couldn't do it. I just couldn't, because I knew that if it was just me, I wouldn't be able to pull off a win by myself.

It DID introduce me to Nacho, though. Which lead into my first game as Calcifer, Outdoosmen Mafia 2. The rest--as they say--is history.
Though I should link you to 1048, which led me to my cop-play article, and is the game where I met DarthYoshi.

Rest are all in New York right now, I believe. Not a single one put in archives, so you can observe my play in all of 'em quite nicely.

Part of his meta IS TO RIDE ON META.

Oh, right. Sadly, this is true. I've been trying to get rid of this element in my play, but it keeps on coming back. I've done thinking on it before, and my working theory is that I am a sentimental guy who likes to ponder the past and what he's done well and what he's...umm...not done well.

He uses reputation as a weapon to enhance his reads and words.

Not sure about this one, though. Seems like a different thing entirely. While I admittedly have taken advantage of my style to get away with things on occasion, I do hate that kind of play. I fail to see how I enhance my reads or words with my reputation. If anything, my reputation lessens my words because people expect me to ramble and wall so they ignore me. :/

Spoiler: More Rambling

I'll sift through what he said and comment when I get home.

You'll find it's about as accurate as a self-assessment as I can give. I'm far better at reading other's meta (when I research it enough) than I am myself. I wall, always have, and--despite efforts to get rid of them--likely always will. It used to be that if I didn't wall, I was lethargic or dangerously close. (Thankfully, I have since overcome that problem.) I was extremely anti-town then, and have tried to stop that from being me right now. I was a VI, who has become more wise with experience. (Another thing--while it used to be limited to cop play--or faking cop play--I evolved over time to become someone who tends to get strong reads, perhaps to the point of tunneling quite often.)

I've truthfully observed that games I wall less in are ones where I don't get emotional and where I have a strong read. My play is changing every game. There's certainly some things remaining the same throughout all my games, but a lot of what "Mastin2" is hasn't been decided, yet, because I'm still trying to work that out, myself.
As scum, I start calm and then freak out, getting emotional. I also tend to feel trapped, boxed in, cornered constantly.
As town, I play impulsively, following my feelings far more often than my head, doing whatever the heck I think I should do/need to be doing in order to win. I'm prone to overconfidence (related to my confirmation bias tendencies and the inverse, reverse-confirmation-bias), and I often am very slow to accept I am wrong. I love MD, love theory, but am bad at puting theory into practice, especially as a player.

All in all, a messed up guy.

Don't think there's really anything in there which isn't true.

Ah, rambling. I should get some sleep. It's 4:30 in the morning, and it's long-past the point where I can get anything productive done. As this massive wall of nothing will show.

[mastin2]

Yeah, need sleep. That post looks like it has some things in there which I could explain better, might need clarification, etc. In other words, is a bit inchoherent. Also, the number of typos I'm making is skyrocketing.

[mastin2]

Alright. So, that was not the way I was hoping things would go. But I meant it when I said we had won this game. And I meant it.

Yes, I was fakeclaiming. I was going to say as much today, because I had a plan. KoC was part of it, though. :/ (Rather, his role.)

But note how I SPECIFICALLY told the protective roles to NOT be on me. There was a good reason for that.

(Pine knows me too well. Remember when he said I could be fakeclaiming to protect a strong gut town-read? That's exactly what I WAS doing.
Then I realized and hatched a plan: if I continued to keep on living, then the scum would know I was faking. Either they figured it out--possible, but honestly not very probable--or they KNEW.)

Now, for the plan.


It relies on me having fakeclaimed, as well as Surye being shot and flipping town or scum.

Specifically, how the scum reacted.

I have consistently failed to die, despite the fact that have been taunting them. Now, with confirmed town alive, that would mean they simply had a better target in mind.

Their KoC kill, however, confirmed that it wasn't because of that. Jmurph was still alive.

So, to me, that meant one thing:

They had to have concluded I was fakeclaiming. (Since I was.) It's possible some players as scum could've figured it out. But in particular, there are two people, only two people, who I can GUARANTEE would've figured it out.

Those to being Silver and Pine.

So. I conclude from this,

One of Silver and Pine is very likely scum

.

More than that. VCA to me suggested one of Surye and Silver to be scum. (I later confirmed this was more than just a VCA suspicion.) Remember that list I posted yesterday? The one with Surye, Uite, Deity, (wraith removed), Zepher, KoC, Maxous, etc.? There was another one besides Wraith I removed: Silver.

What does this all mean?

With Surye having flipped scum, it suggests that Silver is, in fact, scum. PROBABLY with Zepher, though not guaranteed.

My reads:

jmurph3 (0) – Confirmed Town.
silverbullet999 (0) – Very likely scum.
nhammen (0) – Close to confirmed town.
Pine (0) – Town.
MrZepher (0) - Pretty likely buddy to Silver.
Nobody Special (0) - Town.
Uite (0) - Ditto; still possible scum.
Toon Fighter (0) – Town.
Maxous (0) – Possible--but not probable--scum.

So, the lynch order?

Silver, Zepher (unless Silver flips town, in which case, it should be Pine), and if the game is still going after that, probably Uite. But I don't think it will be. We have a doctor and a vig alive. A town roleblocker means the scum might not have one.

So, I really did mean it when I said we couldn't lose. Half the scumteam dead, a vig, a doc, a confirmed-town mason, all alive? That's 3/10 town. Assuming Pine's claim is legitimate, that's 4/10. I, personally, know I'm town, making it 5/10 for me, which is theoretically half the town by itself. Adding in my town-reads (which admittedly probably overlap with the roles ), and I'm getting a majority. With effectively a double-lynch (via our vig) along with good lynches, we've got this game set.

Which is one of the reasons I said I didn't mind if I was lynched: I knew it didn't make one single bit of difference. If I'm lynched, simply replace one of the names I mentioned for a lynch and instead have 'em as a vig.

I'm admittedly a bit incoherent at this moment, but I am perfectly willing to explain.

(My original plan was to have the real cop claim today, since we know there's a doc. Evidence? Jmurph is still alive, despite being a mason [which we now know to be LOVER mason] with SubSith and Thor.
The cop would've likely been safe from roleblocks, and had they NOT been, Pine woulda been lynched, as a "just in case" kind of thing. And coordinate the vig with the cop. Effectively, it would have granted us not one, not two, but THREE lynches in a day--Investigation to clear, vig to shoot unclear, lynch to get rid of more unclear...it was perfect until KoC died. >_<)

I'm going to look over things a bit more, to confirm everything. But for now,

Vote: Silver

.

More on this when I'm a little more coherent and can present the plan in a better manner.

But I do think I have this game won, despite KoC's death being a setback.

[mastin2]

Brief rundown of my reads:
Nhammen is close to confirmed town due to the Amor vote. I haven't double-checked, but when I last checked and read the interaction, it didn't seem like bussing.
Pine was a townread before his claim, and pretty close to confirmed town after it.
NS as town is a little harder to explain, but I'm quite sure of it.

I've already done a brief case on why Toon is town.

Which means--of the ten alive--there are only four people I consider possible scum:

Silver, Zepher, Uite, and Maxous.

Maxous if scum has played extremely well. Uite is null, pretty much. Silver and Zepher are my scum choices.

Between lynching and vigging, these four can be dead in two days.

I've been doing the math, and I'm not seeing how the town can lose this. Even if I'm lynched, that'll still give us a very good chance of still winning the game, by simple process of elimination.

[mastin2]

All that said, I would much prefer the town be four-for-four in our lynches. We're two-for-two right now, so that's why I'm trying to figure out who is MOST likely to be scum--and I believe right now it's Silver.


Sorry. Suffering from a beginning-of-day rush. Happens from time to time.

[mastin2]

His Town walls are far more organized and don't contradict themselves so much.

Quite false. When I say,
"I'm incoherent",
I'm not lying scum. (I did remember to say that, didn't I? Though--honestly--you'd think I wouldn't need to for you to be able to tell. )

If that were the case, then I've drawn the scum PM in every single game I'm in!

When I'm incoherent, I barely make sense to myself.

I mean, how many times can he say that we need to lynch me, then follow it up with calling me Town?

If I wanted you lynched, I'd be voting you. If Silver's town, I think you're scum. If silver's not town, then I think you're town. I believe Silver to be scum over you, and therefore vote Silver. What's the issue?

Why'd he stick his neck put for Silver and now push him?

My town-read lasted on Silver until Surye flipped town last night. Had Surye flipped scum, I would've still thought Silver to be town.

Don't really see the problem, there.

Since Surye has now flipped town, does that at all changed your opinion of the presence of a buddy on this list? Do you still think it unlikely that Pine could be the buddy?

It's like I said. A silver lynch will answer this. If Silver flips town, then Pine's scum, pretty much guaranteed. If Silver flips scum, it's *possible* Pine's scum, but extremely unlikely.

This is just seeming like a big ol' buddying post, meaning that if MrZepher is scum, than at least one of Silver and Pine is scum. And I'm honestly not sure which at this point. Thus, VOTE: MrZepher.

We have a good vig; let them take care of it. Lynch one (preferably Silver), and if they flip town, the vig takes care of the other. A bit of the inverse of the way it's worked (lynched the scum, vig the scummy town), but still works. Zepher can wait until tomorrow.

So have you calculated the math of what would happen if everyone on your scumlist flips town?

If I'm doing the math correctly, if all of them flipped town, we'd have 6/10 dead and 4 alive, 2 of them being scum, town loss. This is following the pattern of lynch one, vig another, scum kill someone, lynch one, vig another, scum kill someone, they're all dead in two days, town's down to four alive. So, unless I'm wrong about every single one of my scumreads, it will work.

And I don't think I am.

I maintain Maxous is likely town, since his speculation doesn't sound like it'd come from scum.

Also, I haven't had an ounce of sleep in over 24 hours, so it'd probably be best for me to avoid posting too much. My post already feels incoherent.

[mastin2]

VCA is a bullshit method of scumhunting. It takes into account only some of the objective facts, and none of the subjective factors.

Why are you not lynching Mastin? He fakeclaimed Cop, causing the real cop to say something that got him killed, and saved someone from being lynched that almost half the thread wanted dead.

This is a gambit from Mastin.

PE: Mastin, why am I scum if Silver flips Town? You've said that a few times now, but have not adequately explained it.

VCA is not the only reason. VCA is what I used to get my initial reads. When I checked the thread and read in more detail, the reads were backed up by in-thread evidence. It was the start, the base, the foundation, sure, but it's not a holy scumhunting weapon.

It was, indeed, a gambit. One which has managed to work out after all, despite the flaws in it. For the scum to know my claim was false, they either had to deduce it (possible, but not in my mind very likely), or they had to KNOW it. If Silver's scum, they obviously knew I was lying. If Silver's town, however, that means it would be someone else who would just know it. That person being you, Pine. You figured out I was gambitting hours after I made that post. You weren't positive and decided to ponder it. (I believe the words were "ponder overnight" or something like that. I have the exact quote somewhere.) But you still managed to figure it out.

It suggests that KoC likely investigated Mastin on Night 1

Dear lord, I hope not. Smart cop play is to not investigate your counter-claim. Smart cop play is to gather other results and possibly 'crumb 'em.

[mastin2]

Town gambit on a strong gut read, maybe.

The exact words. When you realized I was gambiting, I knew I could use it to semi-confirm reads.

Agree with mastin on Nobody Special. WIlling to give him benefit of doubt on yesterdays inactivity.

I find this to be a more likely investigation.

Mastin is one of the main reasons I lend no credence to meta-tells. 'nuff said.

This quote implies possible suspicion of me, pretty much ruling me out as KoC's investigation, fortunately.

This to me doubly-clears NS who I already thought was town.

[mastin2]

First two paragraphs of that post: Attacking my general playstyle.

The reason I figured your gambit quickly, which you conveniently forget to repeat in your quotes, is that investigating Silver flies completely in the face of your Cop strategy manifesto.

Indeed, but (if memory serves--will need to check on the posts from that time period) only you managed to keep this suspicion up for a prolongued period of time. I think I did a good enough job of BS'ing a reason to investigate Silver. (The key to doing convincing BSing is to lie as little as possible. Preferably not at all, if you can get away with it. For instance, I legitimately have gained respect for Silver as a player, and I did see Silver's reads as being valuable.)

Also. I'm re-analyzing things right now.

There are significant connections which can be found with a lynch of Pine or Silver, connections I think will guarantee me to nail the rest of the scumteam for sure. For instance, I'm in the process of triple-checking it right now, but so far, evidence is suggesting that Uite is less likely scum than I originally thought, and Maxous is slightly more likely than I had originally assumed. ALSO for instance, there's evidence suggesting Zepher COULD be town. Admittedly not a lot of evidence, but enough to make me not want to lynch him.

I really want one of Silver/Pine dead. Simply because I really think I have this game in my control, and that with one of/both of them dead, I can call the scumteam tomorrow based on their flips.

[mastin2]

Oh, and to clarify:
While a lynch on both Pine and Silver will likely give me all the information I need to know, the lynch on Silver I feel would give me better information.

To answer Pine--I'm not finished with it, yet. I'm still working on it. The analysis is incomplete, but what I have so far has led me to believe one of you being the lynch today, and possibly the other as a vig (definitely if the lynch flips town, I-honestly-don't-know if the lynch flips scum) will clue me in on the alignment of Zepher, Uite, and Maxous, my working three secondary suspects. Zepher's been my classic choice for second, Uite's been pretty null, and Maxous I've had a town-read on. Zepher's currently "I-have-no-freakin'-clue", Uite's looking favorable, and Maxous is looking slightly more suspicious.

But that's as much info as I can gain from things right now without a flip. All I can do without a flip is continue the research to find out what I find to be the most probable.

It'll take time to finish, but I've been working on it since noon. (It's nearly 2.)

[mastin2]

So, in other words, you haven't completed any analysis, but you already know the result of it.

...Yeah? I haven't finished my analysis. I'm still working on it. But even with incomplete analysis, I can still form conclusions, can I not? The conclusions might change (even if they are doubtful to do so) when I finish my research, but it's not a crime to have 'em before I finish. I do it all the time.

[mastin2]

I did.
Answer's no.

[mastin2]

If I could just figure out which one's town ...and which one's scum.

It's possible we both are. And I know I currently do. Granted, my reads are incomplete, and I still think a Pine death will help tell me who the scum are, but doesn't change how I think right now he's town, albeit wrong town.

(And yes, I am highly incoherent right now. I will be getting to this game when I'm better.)

[mastin2]

Indeed. As my reads on Pine are not that good, so too are apparently his reads on me.

Still, though. Evidence I have makes me lean towards Pine as town. A few things. General interactions, some voting patterns, his attack on me, general read, etc. His death'd generate a lot of info, so that's why he's an okay lynch, but I'm less sure he'll flip scum than Silver. If both flipped town, something wouldn't be right with my reads and I'd need to reevaluate everything.

[mastin2]

Hey, personal favor, could we wait on hammering for a couple days? I'm busy elsewhere and highly exhausted, so if we ended the day right now, I might not have my thoughts fully processed and analysis completed when Day 4 dawns.

[mastin2]

I cleared Toon for multiple reason.
Toon's the closest to confirmed town other than jmurph we can possibly get. I can state the reasons why again, but it'd waste my time.

And an Uite lynch might be a viable option tomorrow, with information from today's lynch, but it's not viable today, since it doesn't give me the info I need it to. With Uite dead, I

might

be able to find the remaining scum. With Silver and/or Pine dead, I

definitely

can.

[mastin2]

There were a few pieces of silver's actions that didn't add up with him being scum

Explain. I sure as heck can find some, but I don't see any evidence in your posts showing you not seeing pure scum. If that makes sense.

In other words. List everything which you saw that didn't add up with him being scum.

[mastin2]

This game, I swear.

I'm with you on that.

Your read on nhammen is pretty much what I see as well. For not just against Silver, but also the whole game, essentially.

I can understand the reasons you might believe me to be scum with Pine, though I wouldn't know for sure, since it's wrong. (If I did know the reasons, then I'd be scum. Since as scum I'd be hyper-aware of those connections. )

And, yeah. I'm pretty sure not both of Pine and Silver can be town, though becoming quite confident one is. (I'm mostly busy elsewhere at the moment.)

[mastin2]

He's still town.

Right now (short of jmurph, of course), if every other single one of my reads were off (other than NS, who's probably cop-confirmed innocent), then my Toon read wouldn't be.

If that makes sense. Essentially, Toon's my most confident town-read.

[mastin2]

The speculation about me being third party's wrong, of course. The reason why I'm feeling different this game is because I for the first time in forever feel like, well, I'm playing how Mastin should be. Short, concise, strong town voice, leading the town, lynching the scum, you get the idea. It feels so right, so natural.

But even if I were third party, only third party allowed in Larges is Serial Killer, and as you can tell by the Vig Kills, if our Vig is really a SK, they've been doing a dang-good job of acting like a real Vig. Meaning even if I WERE the SK, I'd be scumhunting right now.

Someone other than Maxous or Mastin explain to me why we haven't been looking at Maxous lately? I seem to recall some very circumstantial evidence early on giving him some "clear for now" credit, but nothing since. Same goes for Mr. Zepher.

They're both suspects, actually. Zepher historically has been above Uite, Maxous historically below Uite. But those three are my tertiary suspects. (Primary and Secondary being you and Silver, Pine.)

Invert the findings on this list. You more or less get my view. Looks good for NS, potentially looks good for nhammen (not sure on this one), looks good for Toon, and 1-2 of {Pine, Silver, Zepher} are scum.

If that makes sense.

Bit incoherent, sorry.

[mastin2]

What?

No, really. That makes no sense to me.

[mastin2]

Lol. So, essentially, I'm a Third Party guy, no matter what my actual role is?*

*

Joke. That's a JOKE. I know that's not what Pine was actually saying.

[mastin2]

Also, Mastin did you remember to calculate scum night kills into your math before?

Indeed. I calculated we'd safely be able to take at least two of them out (preferably Silver and Pine) before we're in the danger zone. I forget the calculations beyond that.

[mastin2]

Zepher: Pretty sure we have only four scum. Like I said. I know we can get at least two deaths before the danger zone, but I forgot the calculations beyond that.

On me being lynched tomorrow: No objections, if Pine and Silver are both dead. I don't remember the calculations, but I do believe they pointed to tomorrow not being lylo, and if I nail the remaining two scum tomorrow, me being dead is worth it.

And with both Pine/Silver dead, I can do so if neither flips scum.

[mastin2]

While I'm not SOLD on Uite's townslip, it's convincing enough to make me think Uite's town. (Was thinking that, anyway, but still.) And so is NS. (For lots of things, among others, that KoC cleared him. ) As is Toon. And Jmurph, obviously. (And naturally me.)

What does that mean? Well, let's look at the remaining names.
2. silverbullet999
6. nhammen
8. Pine
9. MrZepher
16. Maxous

Five suspects.

Ten alive.

It's not a guaranteed win. But it's pretty dang close. If the vig shoots in those five names, we'll win for sure.

[mastin2]

Wait, nevermind. We've won this.

And of course, my preference would be Pine/Silver, as our lynch/vig. Leaving tomorrow with eight alive, and three suspects. Nhammen, Zepher, and Maxous. In the worst-case scenario where we mislynch today, have a misvig tonight, and mislynch tomorrow, that's seven going into night, with two suspects alive. One vigged, leaving five alive. Worst-case scenario, I'm wrong about one of my town-reads, we still haven't hit scum, and there are five alive, lylo. One being the last suspect in the list.

But I don't think any of my town-reads are wrong. So, yeah. We win.

Also, Pine, if you're a town RB like you claim, you need to block someone inside of those names. And a doctor if existing should protect OUTSIDE those names.

We do not want the vig's kill stopped.

[mastin2]

Maxous is a Meh lynch. Currently, Maxous is my # 3. (Not sure whether nhammen or Zepher would be # 4. Other's obviously # 5.)

You forgot the scum kill tonight

...
...

I, uh. Don't know what to say. >_< (Consider it a bit of Writer's Block. Best word I have to describe it.)

Toon's town, though. If he were scum, he'd be under no obligation to inform me of the fault in my plan. (Nobody else did so. Not even Pine.) As town, though, he had every reason to do so.

So, ten alive.
Seven alive tomorrow.
Six alive going into night.
Vig uses judgment as to whether or not they want to risk a shot. (Though probably not. We'll see when we get to there.)

[mastin2]

So I am #3 preference now?
And why am I a better lynch now rather than Zepher and Uite?

Uite, townslip. I had a town-read on him before, and didn't think he was scum. The town-slip has solidified that. He's not 100% town, but he's a good 90%. (Which is around the level of Toon. Toon's give or take 5% of Uite--95% town or 85% town; not sure which.)

Zepher was traditionally my # 3, but I've become more doubtful of that as of recently. To contrast that, you were always near the bottom, but have slowly risen up to currently be my # 3.

(And this answers Pine as well. Maxous is a "Meh" lynch because until recently, he was near the bottom of my scumlist. He's # 3 right now, sure, and had he been that way for some time, he wouldn't be a "Meh" lynch. But the fact that this is a recent development--meaning my recent read on him might not be as accurate as my read on him for the REST of the game as been--means he's not a very good lynch.
If that makes sense.
[Does to me! ])

[mastin2]

Uite, that's not a lynch happening today.

[mastin2]

Many reasons. I made a small case as to why. It shouldn't be that hard to find.

[mastin2]

No, they're all relevant. (Okay, so 6 isn't a point I can really use, but still... )

VCA's debatable, sure, but look at the votecounts and tell me Toon's placement is consistently scum.

I found the opposite.

In a single-faction game, Counterwagons when the main wagon is on scum are NEVER

also

on scum.

Toon's scumhunting might be a bit, well, VI'ish, but he's still doing so in quite the village way.

General reads of the game DO point to Toon as Town. Amor pushed Toon as scum, for instance.

[mastin2]

Actually, I've changed my mind.

Unvote, Vote: Maxous

. Maxous vs Zepher is not town-on-town. There's one scum in there.

[mastin2]

You mind explaining why Mastin?

Have you READ the interaction between you and Zepher? No way is it town-on-town. Heck, it's possible (albeit highly improbable) that it's scum-on-scum.

[mastin2]

I've never seen two scum as the top wagons.

Ever.

In 34 games.

Plus the countless I've read.

Sure, double-faction games have plenty. I'd quite frankly EXPECT both lead wagons to be on scum. (You're conveniently ignoring the fact that I've acknowledged it happens...in double-faction games. And could theoretically also happen in a single-faction game if one of the scum being wagoned was an SK. But short of that...)

But never, EVER in a single-faction game have I seen both lead wagons be on scum. Not in all my time playing.

I haven't used the Sweet Spot in VCA for a while. I concluded there was no need to do so, since at best it'd catch a single scum. Rather than catch the whole scumteam. In other words, I stopped thinking smallscale with my VCA and took it up to a larger approach. In that larger approach, Toon looks to be confirmed town.

Toon's the classic definition of "scummy, but not scum". He's by-the-book a VI, but he's still town. Read the tone in his posts. Read the intention in his posts. Read his motivation. Read him the way I do, and you'll see pure town voting, rather than scum. His actions admittedly are scummy. A blind man could see that Toon looks bad. But he's still town, no matter how bad he looks, still is the classic scum mislynch just waiting to happen. But Toon's been scumhunting. It's obvious if you look at his posts in context, and also observe the whole votecount my style rather than yours.

Toon is a mislynch. Toon is a misvig. Toon is not scum.

Don't force me to waste my time building a case as to why. Just refer to my shiney new sig.

[mastin2]

Have you READ the interaction between you and Zepher? No way is it town-on-town. Heck, it's possible (albeit highly improbable) that it's scum-on-scum.

This explains nothing and you have committed one of my personal top scumtells.
Why is it not town-on-town?

Because it isn't. Interactions between people is something I do quite well. I pick up these sorts of things. I know them instinctively. You versus Zepher is not town-on-town.

You ASKING why it's not town-on-town actually solidifies you as scum, too. Since if it WERE town-on-town, then your attacks on Zepher would be attacks on someone you were thinking is town.

In other words, from your perspective as town, it wouldn't BE town-on-town, and I'd be right. Just wrong about which one, in your town-eyes.

Since you DID ask, however, I know now for sure that you're scum, and a lynch on you will keep us three-for-three.

[mastin2]

So, yeah. Maxous just did a huge scumslip for asking why it's not town-on-town.

I might not be explaining it in the best way possible, but I'm sure I'm not the only one who can think this way. I've pointed it out, so when others see it, they'll realize I'm right.

[mastin2]

EXACTLY! And that's why it's a scumslip! From your perspective, attacking Zepher, you already should think it's not town-on-town. Asking me to explain why is a scumslip!

I'll see if I can give quotes to back it up.

[mastin2]

(I'm viewing from ISOs, so right now, I'm not looking at context, sorry.)

Zepher suspicion begins. Before that, Zepher was solidly town.

Zepher vote, through "process of elimination".

@Zepher - So have you concluded if I am scummy or not yet?

I'll need to check the context on this. Since from here in ISOs, it doesn't look like a question a town-Maxous would be asking someone they're voting at the time (which is a statement of "I think you're scum"). It does look like scum, however. (Like I said, I need to check the context to make sure.)

Zepher or Uite.
Zepher, and ONLY Zepher. "Everyone else seems town..." Effectively. He listed pretty much the whole town as being town, except for Zepher. No #2 suspect. At all.

Zepher or Toon. "Let's start compromising on who to lynch." Actually. I seem to recall Maxous defending his play as going AGAINST Compromise lynches. What quote was that, again?

Meh, I was unsure about Amor for all of day 1 and only voted him because I did'nt think there was enough support for 9 votes on Toon. He was a compromise wagon.
When I learned that we did'nt need 9 votes I went with my preferred lynch.

So, on Day One, he supported Compromise Lynches...until he learned that they weren't necessary.
And today, he goes for Compromise Lynches...despite knowing they're not necessary.

See the issue?

Furthers the Zepher suspicion.

(NOTE: Switching from ISOs to Context as of ISO 55/Post 887)

Unvote, Vote: Maxous. Maxous vs Zepher is

not

town-on-town

. There's one scum in there.

"Maxous-Zepher is not townVtown".

How convienent...

You mind explaining why Mastin?

"Why isn't it townVtown?" When Maxous's vote is on Zepher. When Maxous has been calling Zepher scum for days. In other words, "Why isn't one of Zepher or myself town?" When voting Zepher. I can't be the only one who sees this as an issue.

This explains nothing and you have committed one of my personal top scumtells.
Why is it not town-on-town?

Why is it not town-on-town. In Maxous's exact words. Why aren't both he and Zepher town. When he's voting Zepher. When he's been calling Zepher scum for quite some time. Why is one of them scum? He shouldn't be asking this as town.

Come on. Someone else has to see it, has to understand this BLATANT contradiction.

It's asking somebody to explain a baseless accusation.

I'm not so arrogant as to not consider the possibility I am wrong about Zepher.

And this? Saying that he could be wrong about Zepher? Only makes it worse. I'm saying it's not town-on-town, and now Maxous is beginning to try and make it look like he's not convinced it's not town-on-town, either. If that makes sense. Admittedly, this is my weakest point against Maxous, because I'm not sure anyone else will understand it. I wish I could explain how this point is personally my strongest, even though to others it's the weakest.

[mastin2]

Responding to Uite shortly, too. Just for the record, I've been reading Uite's sig for some time, and knew he was going to bring this up eventually. But reading my sig, understand that I know I'm right about Toon, and am probably right about Maxous, too. I just know for a fact that I suck at convincing people, personally, to follow my lead.

Toon's a mislynch. I am having trouble explaining why, but he is.

[mastin2]

Hi, Pine. You should come in here. I'm scum, bussing my buddy! (You still believe that, right, Pine?)

[mastin2]

Maxous is panicking scum. I need not quote the whole post and explain why. No, I can quote three words which tell the whole story about why he's desperate, trying so hard to dig himself out of the giant hole he made. What words are those, my friends?

unvote
VOTE: Mastin

[mastin2]

But, just for the lulz. Let's go through this piece by piece.

Oh no no no

This is by far the most truthful thing he's saying in the post. But it has a different tone than what you might think. I can tell, this is an "Oh, *beep*, oh, ****, oh $&!%, oh..."

You came out with there is "one scum in there". Implying either myself or Mr.Zepher is mafia.
I asked you to explain why.

1: And I did. You weren't listening when I explained that it's something I instinctively pick up. Something which is right along my bandwidth of scumhunting, my wavelength of thought.
2: And I've explained exactly why you asking that question makes you scum.

Eventually you come up with a post explaining why *I* am mafia. Not why

either of us

is mafia like you basically stated - why I am mafia.(which about half was information rather than analysis)

True, at the time I made that statement, I was not positive WHICH of you was the scum. I just knew one of you was. Your subsequent

response

, however, convinced me quite well it was you.

If you voted because you thought I am mafia for such reasons you would of said so in the first place. But you did'nt - you strongly implied it was either/or.

Indeed. I was not sure. I knew one of you was scum, but wasn't sure which one. I went with you rather than Zepher, though I don't remember why. (Might've been that I saw more potential support for your lynch, might've been that I felt you were slightly more likely. I don't remember. But it's not important. What's important is what I believe NOW, that Maxous has outed himself as scum.)

You then went through my ISO without looking at the context.

And I said as much, promising that I'd later confirm it by looking at it in-context.

*blah, blah, repetitive stuff essentially answered above deleted*

unvote

VOTE: Mastin

And you can't get more classic OMGUS than this, fellas.

[mastin2]

So, yeah. Maxous is panicking caught scum, who just realized exactly how screwed he is.

[mastin2]

[long ramble deleted and put in QT--short version short, no longer supporting Pine or Silver lynches and am in the process of finding Maxous's buddy.]

[mastin2]

Maxous (3) – Toon Fighter, jmurph3, mastin2
With several others having expressed suspicion of Maxous. Like Pine.

[mastin2]

Also. If Maxous ends up as scum, we have an effective cop. So long as you trust Pine to be town, he blocks suspects. Preferably announcing them before going into night. If there's no kill, we know he either hit scum, or scum NK'd to frame the player. And with them having sacrificed their kill, that means they have to leave confirmed town alive. In other words, we start confirming people by kills having gone through, or by having kills NOT go through and keeping confirmed town alive.

(I remember this strategy fairly well from a game I read. A classic one.)

[mastin2]

Post-game, Toon, sure. I'll link to my QT. Gives a nice insight into the Mind of Mastin.

[mastin2]

Why, Zepher? Who'd have hammered?

[mastin2]

Nhammen, I know it probably wasn't your intention, but when I read that post, it sounds like you're essentially saying, "I HATE YOU ALL!"
...Okay, not quite, but that's the first sentence I thought of.

A more accurate description of what I see in there is, "YOU'RE ALL SCUM!"

Am I the only one who got that tone from his post?

[mastin2]

I do it all the time.

I just devised a strategy which used it, if you noticed.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Typo Filled From A Tired MInd

Mastin clearly implies that it is reasoning from our posts.

Yeah, it's from your posts. Key words.

'I can't think of a reason why..ehh it's instinctive'

Does not contradict with "reasoning from posts". It's instinctive, but it's because of certain reasons from the posts.

...It's...very hard to explain logically. Because it feels so natural, so obvious, so instinctive to me, I find it extremely difficult to explain the whole thing in terms more familiar to people as logic. It makes logical sense to ME, but I really am having trouble describing it to others. Reasons are obvious to the point of instinct.

(Sorry. I'm tired. 5:30 AM, not an ounce of sleep. Inchoherence Runs Rampantly.)

If that makes sense. It's got reasons for me, reasons I know so well that I call them instinct, but I can't convert those reasons into better words, into something others would see as reasonable.

I can't explain it any better than that right now. It's the best way I have to describe this...unique way of looking at things. Instinct, Reason...no contradiction.

Furthermore if I had a gut read on something that was scummy, I would check why before I voted.

I am not you. 'Sides, wasn't gut. Was something else.

He voted me then looked for reasons why I am mafia.

Bit of a strawman. I voted you thinkin' you were more likely scum, then your reaction proved it to be true.

frackin admitting his sole purpose is to find reasons to justify his posts.

I do not understand this.

It's no longer instinct because he was called on it.
He is making this up as he goes along.

Nah. Was a form of instinct to begin with. You later rpovec yourself scum, so it begame no longer instanct. I wasn't making it up a sI went along. I was finding more evidence in front of me as time passed by.

'I had an instinct that either yourself or Zepher was scum so I voted. I did'nt check either of your posts to verify this feeling - why would I do that? And your response makes you scum'

First sentence true. Instinctive Reason. (Jard to explain.) I checked the posts witht eh immediate discussion, a page or two Ibelieve it was, and I confirmed it then. I figured oit sentially from only a couple poages that you weren't both town. Not that hard when you mmade it more blatant later-on. Whch of course mesn the last part of youyr statement is also true, that your resonse pade you more scum.

I voted you because you are lying here and I am honestly surprised nobody else has picked up on this.

Since there's nothing left to see. In psitions where you just revealed you were fakeclaiming, honesty is the best policy. No lies, not anymore, just undilluted pure truth. Always has been my beliekf, always will very likely be my belief.

Votes me stating myself of Zeph is mafia with no reasoning.

Didn't I say in the first post "There's no way their interaction is town on town", or something like that? That's not "no reasoning". That's giving a reason which isn't fully elaborated on at the time of the post, since it's a difficult thing to explain, but it's still a reason, nonetheless. (See what I'm saying? I'm sorry, it's 5:45; my mind's rapidly degrading, so this is probably bedcoming increasingly difficult to decipher, I';ll try to give a more cohjerent version later today.)

Two

(I'm gonna assume Mastin scum=

Zepher

town

)

townies arguing - oh there has to scum there.

This is quite false. I said that it WASN'T two townies arguing. You're flailing scum here, especially for the bolde.d And italicizer in [paticula. Oh and nderlined, too.

When one flips town let's just lynch the other one. This was the scumtell I mentioned, I have seen mafia do this a lot before. It is opportunistic bandwagoning.

[YUo forget we have a vig. Lynch one, flip town, then vig the other.

I advocated the same thing with Pine/Silver earlier and you had no objections. Only when it turned to YOURSELF tid you suddenly display suspicion of it, despitehow I had been doing this for the whole day without you objecting, from my memory.

Addthat to the list of contradictions against Maxous, shall we?

Implies there is a reason through posts. He has no reason. This comes from the guy that writes walls of reasoning.

False, as explained above. It has a reason, one which is obvious to the poin t of instinct for me, but which I have trouble explaining to others. It shold be quite obviousthat I have trouble explaining my reasons, but that they exist. I do nt lie about reasons. Ever. Does no benefit as either alignment.

He then changes it to instinct.

Change nothign. Reasons and instinct can overlap. Also explained above.

If it was truly instinct he would of checked why he had that feeling and most importantly he would of mentioned that in the first 2 posts. He did'nt.

Feeling and isntinct are not the same thing. They're common synonmys, sure, but they are not exactly the same thing. In this case, theres a quite subtle but vital difference between them. Being that a feeling would be closer akin to gut, whereas this instinct would not be. (Though this admittedly is based a ittle but on situation to situation. Sometimes feeling is loge logical, whereas instinc is more gut. it';s very hard to explain without rambling, okayt? I'll attempt it when cohjerence returns. It';s quite obvious I am in nos hape to elaborate right now. )

I will be re-posting this when I'm more coherent; just thought thisshouldn';t wait.

[mastin2]

(And, no, I am not druk or anything. I'm just THAT BAD when tired. )

[mastin2]

...I never realized it coulda been seen that way.
(If you couldn't tell by the above statement, that's a "no". )

Spoiler: Slightly More Coherent, Now

So it was from my posts? Or both our posts?
If it was the former - you would of said I think max is mafia here, not I think one of them is mafia.
If it was the latter - You would of pointed out what was scummy from Mr.Zepher's posts.

Both. I read the interaction between you and I realized that it couldn't be town-on-town. I realized that ONE of you two would flip scum from these interactions, and thought you slightly more likely, but wasn't convinced until you did the huge scumslip. That's what triggered me to go back and point out what was scummy from you, Maxous.

Which you only mentioned on your sixth post regarding the matter. If you were genuine you would of mentioned it in the first 2.

This is subjective, and assumes I play similarly to you.

Instinct and gut are the same.

[REDACTED--Angry Ranting and Rambling are not suited for in-thread arguments.] Short version short, they might be SIMILAR, but they are NOT the SAME. Subtle Difference between 'em is key.
(TL;DR--you're wrong.)

Indeed. I was not sure. I knew one of you was scum, but wasn't sure which one. I went with you rather than Zepher, though I don't remember why. (Might've been that I saw more potential support for your lynch, might've been that

I felt you were slightly more likely

.

Maxous's point of an inconsistent story doesn't hold, since this was one of the reasons.

This does'nt add up. If you checked it already you would of had the reasons you came out with in Post 899. But you never said that in 886 or 889

It was a skim, originally. It got what I needed to confirm, but it wasn't detailed. I later reviewed yours some more.

And yet after I asked 2-3 times you never gave an elaboration. Or any reason other than instinct.

And take a wild guess as to why I have trouble explaining things.
Is it because I'm scum, who BS'd an argument against you for no apparent reason but can't BS facts to SUPPORT said argument--no matter how outlandish they may be--or that I'm town, who simply has a very difficult time explaining my reasonings?

(Hint: One of these is just part of who I am.
Hint for the Hint: It's not the one which would be game-specific.
Hint2 for the Hint: To some extent, Occam's Razor comes into play, too.)

My point is if you flip mafia,I will be considering Zepher as town...

And this viewpoint solidifies you as scum, since your scumread on Zepher vanished the instant you thought I was scum, and you thought I was scum only AFTER I started attacking you.

Lawl.
That was a completely different scenario. You explained reasons why you thought either Pine and Silver was mafia. And crucially they were'nt arguing or connected to each-other in any way.
What you did here was see two people argue and declare one of them must be scum for no tangible reason.

I never explained Pine-Silver, not more than I've explained you-Zepher, at least. I gave general hints as to reasons, yeah, but I don't think I ever flat-out gave my full explanation, the full "logic" (it's logic to ME! ) behind it. The scenario isn't completely different. They're virtually identical. The contradiction between not caring and caring greatly (to the point of considering it a scumtell) still holds quite valid.

You did'nt even try.

6 am, not an ounce of sleep. Of course I didn't try.
'Sides, this is the kind of thing which I need to dump in my QT, first. Try and shorten it from a long-winded ramble for something which should be so simple, into something more concise. The process takes a lot of time, since it's VERY hard for me to do.

First of your updated reasons: addressed already.
Second of your updated reasons: It's BECAUSE it'd be a long wall, that I haven't, because I'm trying to think of a more concise way to put it.
Third reason: No change. It was an instinctive reason. Those two do NOT contradict, because instinct and gut aren't the same thing, as I (almost) rambled about in this post. You can have a reason, which is also an instinct, and I did.

=> He changed the reasoning he had of why he voted me. He first said he could'nt remember and it was maybe because my lynch was more realistic or maybe because he thought I was slightly scummier. This changed to he felt that I was scummier.(as in definite)

This is not a change. This is simply selecting the option which is more likely and going with it. I do it all the time.

=> He claimed he double-checked our posts before he made his vote but evidence shows that it is unlikely that he did.

I see no evidence of this. I checked your posts, essentially on a skim. Then posted my assersion after confirming things that one of you was scum. You confirmed my suspicion it was you with your reaction, so I looked some more into you. No contradiction, there. Simple progression.

Updated reasons why I am town

Maxous (5) - Toon Fighter, jmurph3, Mastin, Pine, Mr.Zepher

I maintain Pine is likely to be town - but who thinks this wagon is gonna flip scum?

*raises hand*
The wagon built slowly, over time, Maxous. While it's not 100% accurate, historically, that means it's far more likely to be on scum than a quickwagon.

But--just for the sake of argument--let's say you DO flip town. Well, then, we know there's likely one scum on you. (I wouldn't think both would risk it on a town lynch at this stage in the game. Too risky, since after the mislynch, we WOULD be analyzing the wagon.) And one of those names is Zepher. See where this is going?

But--of course--you're not going to flip town. So this is all moot.

Additionally. Things left unaddressed.

You forget we have a vig. Lynch one, and if they flip town, then vig the other.

I advocated the same thing with Pine/Silver earlier and you had no objections. Only when it turned to YOURSELF dd you suddenly display suspicion of it, despite how I had been doing this for the whole day without you objecting, from my memory.

Add that to the list of contradictions against Maxous, shall we?

Even IF your viewpoint on the middle paragraph was true, you fail to address the first paragraph, since you know I'm right about that point, that I wasn't going for two mislynched, but rather--as with Pine/Silver--a lynch one; vig the other if the lynch flips town.

I'll return shortly.

[mastin2]

(The TL;DR argument between us is that Maxous is flailing scum, who OMGUS'd me and suddenly had ALL other suspicion MAGICALLY vanish, going after someone he hadn't been suspicious of AT ALL, and is now stretching, desperately, to try and discredit me, strawmanning, catching me in fights, etc.)

[mastin2]

I'm not sure I agree, Pine.

While I, personally, am willing to gambit on you being town, it's far from 100%. If the scum kill you, it'd answer a lot of questions.

I'd much rather have the doc on Jmurph or NS, our confirmed town.

[mastin2]

Toon, you're confirmed town to ME.
But Jmurph and NS are confirmed town to OTHERS.

And Pine, my reasoning's pretty simple. A potential PR who may or may not be real. If the scum kill you, that means they're legitimately afraid of you. If they don't, it either means you're scum, or that they're hoping to mislynch you as scum.

Think about that for a second. I can't explain why this is important without ruining the effectiveness of this move. But I have a good reason to believe that--if the doctor is NOT on you--whether you live or die will further our ability to nail the remaining scum. The key is in my wording above. See if you can figure it out for yourself. It's something I believe that town'd know instinctively, but that scum can't figure out. ('Least, I'm HOPING it is something only town can figure out. )

Call it another gambit if you'd like. But a protective role--if existing--should NOT be on you, Pine. Let the scum have the option of killing you if they really want to. I, personally, don't think they will, but I am curious as to what they'll do.

[mastin2]

...Apparently not. Pine, you're not getting it. Look closer. You're reading too much into one part while forgetting the other(s).

[mastin2]

Well, then, I'll again say I'm not positive you're seeing what I am, based on your original reaction.

What I see is a lack of protection on you being a gamebreaker in our favor.

[mastin2]

Uh, Zepher? I didn't understand any of that.

And for Maxous. Like I said, interactions are hard to explain.

(Sorry, incoherent right now.)

[mastin2]

Yeah, so was I. L-1.

[mastin2]

mastin2 (3.5) – Maxous, Silver, NS, Pine (honorary member)
L-1 --> Maxous (4.5)– Toon Fighter, jmurph3, mastin2, Pine (about to jump off), MrZepher

Our lead two wagons.

And know what?

I'm fine with that. Since when I flip town, Maxous gets vigged. And if we SOMEHOW were both town, Zepher gets lynched.

Scum death, guaranteed.

[mastin2]

Also, for the record.

My case on Maxous was only for the short-term. Covering essentially the last five or so pages.

I easily could extend it to the whole game, but I don't think I have the time, given how close deadline is.

Heck, I could explain any of the reads I have in great detail, but the time wasted would be greater than the time provided.

Maxous is as obv-scum as obv-scum can get. And I'd prefer the town to go three-for-three on our lynches, rather than relying on our vig.

And, hey. I'm more than willing to accept the consequences of me being wrong, here, too. If Maxous flips town, then I deserve to be vigged, and then the town can lynch Zepher instead, without the distraction of me, and with the information that both Maxous and I were town who believed Zepher was scum if the other between us wasn't. (If that makes sense. Does to me! )

But I'm quite confident he won't flip town.

[mastin2]

Essentially.

We've won this.

Maxous and Zepher contains one scum. (And theoretically possibly two, albeit highly doubtful.)

I said it from pretty much Day One. That we couldn't lose this game, that we had it won from the beginning. And I meant it.

When I die, everyone will know I was town, legitimately scumhunting. And know what to do, instantly: Kill Maxous.

[mastin2]

L-1 --> mastin2 (5.5) – Maxous, silverbullet999,

Nobody Special

, Pine,

jmurph3

, MrZepher (waiting for claim)

If they think I'm the SK, it's VERY possible both scum are on me, lynching me for what they THINK will be free town-cred.
Since I'm NOT an SK, of course, that means that you definitely can see 1-2 scum in this wagon, no?

(And see below for why--even IF I were the SK--I wouldn't be the ideal lynch today.)

If it's not two, then I'd think Nhammen would be the second.

Toon continues to bleed town-tells with every post. In particular, his viewpoint of me, as well as pointing out what he sees in Pine.

On that same foot, a vig makes sense too, but IDK.

We don't have an SK. Look at the blasted freakin' kills. Wraith was my choice for being lynched Day 2; taken out Night One. Surye was also my choice for Day 3; taken out Night Two.

That's not an SK. Or even if it was, that's a SK who's actively hunting scum with their kills.

AKA,
-If they're a SK, they're aiming no differently than if they were a vig, and we shouldn't SK hunt until we're down to a single mafia member. (Come on, really, this is common sense; let the SK shoot scum suspects for us like they have been!)

-If they're a vig, they're aiming for scum. In particular, they hit people who were highly-probable mislynches both nights.

[mastin2]

Fun stuff. Actually, should be quite obvious when looking at the above. Killer, of course, but not scum or serial. Eh, might as well say

vig

.

(should be quite obvious who should not be the lynch today [myself!]--

if

it was a lie, the vig'd simply shoot me during the night.)

[mastin2]

(Bit incoherent, but yeah, I really shouldn't have needed to claim that.)

[mastin2]

F

un stuff.

A

ctually, should be quite obvious when looking at the above.

K

iller, of course, but not scum or serial.

E

h, might as well say

vig

.

(should be quite obvious who should not be the lynch today [myself!]--

if

it was a lie,

the vig'd simply shoot me during the night.

)

>_<
Spells out.
FAKE.

Shoot me during the night.

So, y'know, we can actually lynch scum today.

Maxous or Zepher.

I was going to take the bullet tonight.

[mastin2]

Essentially. Plan was, lynch Zepher/Maxous.
Regrettably get vigged; unavoidable consequence of the gambit, but a necessary one. Which might've doubly been effective, considering I stood a chance of drawing the scum kill as well due to all the people thinking I was the SK. With a claim of Vig, I obviously would get the real vig's, well, vig, but might attract the scum NK along with it, since they'd presumably not know me to be lying.

And with a lynch today on Maxous/Zepher (preferably with them flipping scum, but not guaranteed), and my death tomorrow, work from there.

[mastin2]

(Also, told ya Toon was town. )

[mastin2]

So, yeah. Gambit ruined by not reading the claim more closely and realizing that it was yet another move to try and get the real scum dead as quickly as possible.

[mastin2]

And, of course, I was hoping it'd be obvious it wasn't a scum gambit to get me targeted, since, well...
-Godfather dead. What other scum role would be kill-immune? (Answer: None.)
-Roleblocker, Pine--allegedly town. More than that, no way of knowing who the real vig would be. Hence, real vig's shot on me couldn't be stopped.

In other words, I was hoping that it'd be blatantly obvious I was town trying to get vigged, rather than scum trying to make the vig waste a shot on me.

[mastin2]

(So, no, not three-for-three, since I'm town. Had Toon saw the intent of the post rather than just read the surface and see me claim his role, it would've worked.

All experienced players know that if a player lies about being a vig, the proper Real Vig play is to SHOOT the guy claiming to be your role, NOT to lynch them and give yourself away.

I was hoping the vig'd know this, but apparently, I was wrong. :/)

[mastin2]

(In other words, to me, it was quite obvious that by claiming vig, I was broadcasting to the real vig, 1: "Not Scum! Lynch elsewhere; use judgement as to whether or not I deserve a bullet." And 2: "If you think I'm scum claiming your role, SHOOT ME. Don't waste a lynch on me!"

Obviously, I was hoping to be subtle enough that the scum wouldn't figure out I was faking, leaving the possibility of me being killed by them.

Apparently, was a bit TOO subtle. )

[mastin2]

And, yeah. I'll stick by it having been the correct play. The rest of the town can shout at me in the dead QT for fakeclaiming twice as town, but both times had a purpose, both were gambits which had a (in my opinion) low risk, with a (in my opinion) quite high reward.

In this case, lynching scum and being three-for-three (while potentially drawing the NK away from the real vig, too!), rather than the mislynch which just happened on me.

[mastin2]

So, yeah. Me lynched, Toon (presumably) killed by the scum (dang it, you really weren't supposed to claim, Toon. Paraphrased, it's been said by many players, "A vig CCs with a Bullet." Not a vote and dayclaim), Zepher/Maxous killed, hopefully flipping scum. But worst case scenario, is that they'll flip town, (ten alive now, seven alive tomorrow) and then we'll lynch the other in them. (Six alive in night, five alive coming out.) If they SOMEHOW were both town, lylo. Otherwise, not lylo. And I don't think they are both town.

Hence the gambit.

[mastin2]

Scum QT, nhammen, Paraphrased N1/N2:

"I HATE MASTIN'S GAMBITS! THEY'VE SCREWED US OVER BY NARROWING THINGS DOWN!"

Scum QT, nhammen, Paraphrased N3/N4?

"I love Mastin's Gambits."

[mastin2]

Yeah...

Gambits to protect someone (my Silver gambit, for instance) tend to be disliked, but usually work out well. (Silver WAS town!)

Gambits to get someone LYNCHED (my Vig Claim, Zepher claiming JOAT with a result contradicting KoC's obv-crumb), tend to universally get people shouting, "I. WANT. TO. BLACKLIST. YOU."

[mastin2]

Read the scum QT, Silver. You almost got NK'd.

[mastin2]

Mason-outing would have been done by me regardless.
Or if not me, SOMEONE. (And woulda been a good thing, but the lover thing...)

Masons pretty much always get outed on Day One.

Maybe it's the fact that their play is (if not consciously, then subconsciously) almost identical to scum play. I could elaborate on this, but it makes sense if you think about it.