New York 134: Planet of Hats (Scum Win!)

[Amrun]

Yeah, I'm pretty obviously not scum, Palisade. I spent 10 minutes ISOing one of the flipped mafia before I replaced into this slot because I didn't want a scum slot and that is how long it took me to figure out Parabollocks was town.

Is your reasoning that I would have forgotten to submit a scum kill when I replaced in? Fat chance.


Here's my plan of attack. I'm going to try something new. Before reading the thread in its entirety, I'm going to do these things:

-ISO each scum that has flipped (and its predecessor, if applicable) and analyze the posts to determine likelihood of buddies
-ISO each flipped town to glean what I can
-ISO remaining players by likelihood of being scum as per above analysis
-Finally, read the thread in context to help put the pieces together

I replaced into two games at once (why did I do this damnit) so I needed to break it down into doable sections so I can still be of use here.

Also, I have always wanted to try this and this game has enough flipped scum that I think it could be really effective.

[Amrun]

This is how this is going to go. I'll quote pertinent posts and highlight confirmed players in green/red respectively, then analyze how that player treats town and scum respectively.

I'm not going to do a giant annoying catch-up wall like

PBuG

did.

Reck and

thor

are obv-town
Jilynne is town
I can't read

sleepykrew

for shit, so I'm going to trust reck's read (which he seems rather confident about).

Taro

is town
Chkballin' is likely town
Peregrine,

KoC

,

Parabollocks

, and

JGDA

need to die
I believe Palisade's vig claim
Cele is probably town
I'll talk about hydras and

sancho

and whoever else I forgot to address in the next post.

I'm going to elaborate on the scum reads in my next post. If you guys want me to elaborate on a specific town read, ask, because I'm too lazy to do it without asking.

From this one post, I can surmise that Zebronic doesn't treat all of his buddies the same but likely tries to avoid saying anything specific about them.

Reck gets town points.
Palisade, chkballin, Celebloki get minor scumpoints

[Amrun]

I think that

NS

could possibly be Scum, but the big problem is wheter we can afford to lose a Town Cop. I also think that if we mis-lynch today, then it's possible that LYLO will come sooner then we all suspect. If

NS

is realy Cop, then we started the game with 2 Cops. Also, because there was no deaths last night, it is possible that the town has several other PR's. If this was the case, to counter-balance, it is possible that there would be a large Mafia (maybe as much as 6), causing an early LYLO.

I think it is possible Jilly COULD be lieing when she claimed PGO, and is useing it as a coverup so that no one will investigate. I saw a game 1 time when a Goon claimed that role, and because everyone was too scared to investigate, the Mafia won.

Thor

, please clarify when you say "Give your reads".

Mostly of note in this post is the part about jily. He is treating her exactly like he treated NS, ostensibly, but it bothers me...

[Amrun]

And on that note, I'll stop being an asshole.

This game just lost half the fun.

So, I'm up for a

DK

, jily, or

swag

lynch.

This combined with his early jily vote gives jily town points - but I'm a little torn on how valid this is because jily would be a perfect early bus and sk obviously had experience with her.


SK later fencesits on chkballin' wagon (scumpoints) and fully supports

PBuG

wagon.

KoC

=active lurker

PBuG

=scummymcscummerson

Conclusion: SK does not seem to bus. Townpoints for jily seem to be valid. Palisade also gets some (lesser) townpoints from SK's iso.

[Amrun]

Bah... it feels like we're all getting caught up in

DK

again instead of discussing scum.

Swag136

I'm not entirely sure about, but it does seem like an awfully stupid move regardless.
jilynne, however, still has these same contradictions surrounding her that she since she tried to explain away her vote on

DK

, and I

really

don't like them. IMO, thinking that L-7 is pressure doesn't really seem to make sense to me, and her constant flipflopping of attitudes towards

DK

in particular just reeks of scum. My vote stays.

And speaking of votes...
[edited out VC]

JDGA also doesn't seem fond of bussing.

Major townpoints for jily.

JDGA spends most of his time attacking chkballin, so townpoints there as well.

Minor townpoints for Palisade, too.

Very minor townpoints for Reck.

[Amrun]

Every flipped scum slot gives jily a lot of town cred, so with even with the sketch PGO claim, I think VinegarEater is town.

Reck and chkballin likely town. Palisade also probable town.

More analysis required for possible scumbuddies.

[Amrun]

Balance is not a simple equation. Is there an sk in this set-up, for example? I don't even know yet.

4 scum minimum for this size, I'd say.

[Amrun]

I don't know why I colored you green, NS. Weird mistake.

From what I've read so far, I think I do believe your claim, though.

Vinegar:

It's possible there's a plausible case on Parabollocks, but I don't have any clue since I haven't read even one of his posts.

I ISOed Zebronic and Auckmid before replacing in since they were the scum in the game longest. I saw Zebronic list parbollocks and jdga in the "needs to die" category after concluding he treated his buddies differently and decidit was highly unlikely more than one scum was in the "needs" category.

To be honest, I then gathered that jily claimed pgo, which seemed like a classic jilyscum move, so I isoed you (vinegar), saw your extensive attacks on para, and concluded para wasn't scum.

Then when I did a more extensive analysis of the flipped scum, I concluded I was wrong and you are actually town (or at the very least, not groupscum). Pgo claim does increase chances of sk, though.

[Amrun]

NS, why so confrontational?

To the best of my memory, I was going to say something like I believed your claim (at this point of reading) and wanted to use that to look at how he treated jily's claim, but I was pretty tired. Your name was green, it shouldn't have been, end of story.

As for my "craplogic," it was something I did in literally 3-5 minutes to determine if I wannted to take the slot. It was never meant to impress.

You're being pretty vague. How about drawing some conclusions?

Vinegar:

As stated, this "iso" thing is bnoth an experiment and a method to help me be useful before I fully catch up.

I decided I wanted to try it after I replaced into an L-1 obvscum ( and yet town) slot simply to claim and be hammered. I expected that to happen and so didn't want to commit to reading the game. I ISOed thw singular flipped scum to determine which of the counterwagons to join. In doing so, I decided one player (one of my slot's counterwagons) was town and another was scum.

So in about 10 minutes, I figured out enough to declare one player town, another player scum, and pick the counterwagon that was on a player in the null category rather than town. My vote was on scum; my scum read was scum; my town read was town. Scum won the game.

A replacement's biggest value is the new set of eyes and the fresh perspective. I decided to expand the above concept and utilize that to its fulest.

Maybe it will work out, maybe it won't.

Either way, can the rudeness. It's uncalled for.

[Amrun]

Also there seems to be some type of evidence that shows Palisade is sk.

Wagonho.

VOTE: Palisade

[Amrun]

I thought ns claimed cop, not blocker?

[Amrun]

Why should dgb need to be replaced?

[Amrun]

Why does ns have to die?

[Amrun]

What evidence is there that he's fakeclaiming?

[Amrun]

I don't really think PeregrineV is scum due to my analysis, but it's only a vey minor townpoint for him. To be honest, I have a hard time reading him because I always read him as scum.

[Amrun]

^Second that weirdly confrontational metatell for scumbvoigt.

[Amrun]

Unless palisade turns out to be groupscum, no.
SKs don't have buddies.

[Amrun]

I'm a VT.

[Amrun]

Peregrine V shoudl claim.

Also I just realized I don't think pgo falls under normal guidelines. I need to check.

[Amrun]

Backup doesn't necessarily mean we have a no kill.

Idk about this game's balance. At least one of these claims must be fake.

[Amrun]

I mean that the RB cod actually be scum. It's happened before; check the original execution mafia (in wiki).

Town had a nurse; the doctor was on the scumteam.

[Amrun]

Peregrine:

Sorry, was a typo. I meant a town RBer. Idk wtf I was thinking of.

[Amrun]

No, the other way around. Of course, what you said is possible, but in the game I was thinking pf, the backup was town and the full PR was scum.

[Amrun]

No, you corrected it to "RB could be town," when I said the RB could be scum.

In any case, I think we understand each other despite me confusing my words.

[Amrun]

I mean that even if chkballin is town, the roleblocker could still be scum. I don't know how to make it any clearer than that.

[Amrun]

There are no rules against it in the normal guidelines. I'm currently hosting a Large Normal, so I'm fairly familiar with it.

[Amrun]

I didn't say it was popular. It is not.

I wouldn't have gone out of my way to say it was possible if it were a usual occurence.

I am still having a very hard time buying Hoopla allowing a PGO making it into a normal, even as a variant role.

Does anyone know if it's been done before?

[Amrun]

I have a townread on Vinegar, though. *sigh*

[Amrun]

Fakeclaims hardly count. Yes, but they must be based on roles closeish to Normal.

Oh well. I'm sick of pondering it. I don't think Vinegar is groupscum. I'll reconsider him for sk if Palisade isn't.

Palisade, your supposed scumteam makes no sense at all.

[Amrun]

Uh why would you try and target the pgo?

Plus vinegar eater is town. So is Reck.

How is dgb confirmed?

[Amrun]

Why isn't chkballin scum and lying about his backup claim and being the RB a possibility?

Out of bvoigt, DGB, chkballin, I don't know who I suspect most. Chkballin comes out worst on my previous analysis but it wasn't a strong thing iiirc.

I have some reading to do.

[Amrun]

It would be a good way to avoid accountability.

[Amrun]

Wow, what the fuck.

VOTE: chkballin

P-edit: Reck, no.

Chkballin just claimed scum.


P-edit 2: there is just no way a changing wincon role got passed as normal.

[Amrun]

It's not my fault you keep ninjaing me. I tried to vote chkballin first but you stole my thunder. Stupid cellphone.

P-edit: If you flip town I'll be pissed. It wnt be your fault.

[Amrun]

Cease the wifom, scum.

[Amrun]

Cease the wifom, scum.

what wifom? I just claimed scum. There is no question...

"- don't think town will win" "my teammate left me hanging" etc

Reck, chkflip flaked, this head is gllowball.

[Amrun]

Well, the flip ninjaed a big post of mine where I analyzed chkballin. I saved it as a draft but I have no idea how to access it. (Anyone?)$

Long story short: no WAY is celebloki scum. Reck also gets townpoints.

Chkballin wifomed about dgb, but bvoigt was the only player chkballin didn't omgus.

VOTE: bvoigt

Their interactions were weird, and bvoigt's quick vote and few words yesterday make him stand out.

[Amrun]

That button doesn't show up. X.X

[Amrun]

Yeah basically.if it's not him it's dgb.

P-edit: VinegarEater is not scum.

[Amrun]

I really hope thi is it because nothing else makes sense.

[Amrun]

Also Reck, VinegarEater is not scum because I analyzed every flipped scum and they all attacked her with intent to lynch (mostly jily, obv). Every single one. They tried to sow seeds of mistrust about the pgo claim just like they tried to discredit the second cop claim. One scum might have bussed, or two, but I went through in detail and showed why I do not believe this to be the case, when I replaced in. All of them treating the slot as a potential mislynch means the slot was a potential mislynch to them.

[Amrun]

Oh my God. What.

What the fuck.

I am at an absolute loss.

I have good reasons to think everyone here is town.

I don't know. I don't fucking know.

I think at this point, we may be forced to disregard cop innocents.

Sjdjsjsjs

[Amrun]

I don't know what to do. I really believed your claim. Like, really. But the other two have innocents ... and I had reasons to believe they were innocent.

And I know I'm not scum.

I guess I have no choice but to vote for Vinegar Eater. But idk man. idk. Seriously I can't think of a time I've been at more of a loss.

If it comes down to me voting between reck and cel, it will be cel.

But I need to do some thinking about the likelihood of a godfather. I had previously decided it was unlikely. *sigh*

[Amrun]

I don't see the point in no lynching, no.

[Amrun]

I guess I should just do this.

VOTE: VinegarEater

[Amrun]

Wait, she claimed a nonstandard PGO. PGOs don't die when they're visited.

P-edit: I posted 99% of it in thread. I know you got stuck with a shit claim. Too bad.

[Amrun]

I had my wonderings... I really did. I had them about everyone.

I was thinking about it and decided if it wasn't vinegar eater, it had to be reck.

But it was hard to give up those cop results.


I should have trusted myself. I knew from my analysis vinegar wouldn't be scum. X.X but jily fucked up the claim. Or it was a nonstandard pgo.

Reck, why did you kill dgb instead of celebloki last night?

Despite totally copping out, glowballdid good distancing.

[Amrun]

I pretty much did this game a disservice by not reading it completely, but I did what I could realistically do.

I did get to test out my scum analysis theory and just as I thought, it works really well.

I wish I'd stuck by it. VinegarEater and Celebloki had strong clears by it; Reck only had a couple of minor townpoints from it.

It is not so useful in finding buddies, but VERY useful in clearing town.

I'll refine it and it will be of infinitely more use in a game I actually read.

Thanks for letting me play and not getting too mean when I couldn't read properly.

[Amrun]

Amrun -
Sorry, I was so rude about your playstyle. I still don't like it, but in retrospect it worked pretty well.

It's okay, but realize it's not really my playstyle, just a new technique I was trying out.

Ideally, it should be used when you have also read the game and can add it to and use it to inform more conventional methods.

I do think replacements are in a prime position to use it, though. They have fresh eyes and no preconceived reads.