New York 152 Niiightless Game Over!

[Psyche]

PS: BK accusing Mogri (or whever) of flailing actually is DEFINITELY a scumtell. The statistics only

corroborate

that fact.

[Psyche]

CF is town. VCA unnecessary.

[Psyche]

Except you didn't do any real work there, you just quoted Ythan a lot and color-coded. I see no actual insight, or attempts at making inference.

Also, that's at least the third time Psyche's said that I've misrepped him for "the seventh time." It's getting annoying. Stating my opinion on your posts is not misrepresentation, and it isn't lying. Lrn 2 mafia.

Opinions and facts are two different things. >.>

psyche why does what color another team would be make any difference? it's just an arbitrary thing. If you disagree, explain why? And is purple your favorite color or something? Or is that a crumb for after your scum team gets caught?

Purple is the same color as your avatar, my darling noraaa. <3
I'm kidding. (Sorry, just finished reading some sweet, beautiful yaoi.)

Yes, purple is a pretty beast color. I was totally expressing my weirdness in my talk about faction colors. Arbitrary certainly is the word.

[Psyche]

Woah woah. Give me a second the deal with that blegrh.

[Psyche]

The only decent argument for BK scum was that he was on all of the RedFF counterwagons. Your phony statistics still suck.

That was the only argument I needed for him, and it's all I need for Psyche too.

In case you missed it, I gave BK201 a pretty fucking strong ultimatum, and after that, he stopped posting except for 2 last posts, the first of which didn't come until nearly 3 pages after my ultimatum. He knew he was scum, and he knew it was over.

So you can shut right the fuck up, whenever you're ready.

And here's the case on Psyche since you're wondering. According to my vote count analysis, Psyche stayed on BBmolla for the whole fucking entirety of Day 1, and then hopped over to redFF when it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he'd be lynched.

redFF flipped scum. Rinse and repeat.

Psyche stayed off all wagons for the entirety of Day 2, never once having a vote anywhere other than the Not Voting category. At the very end of the day, he sees that the Techno lynch is a foregone conclusion yet again, and hops on with a well-timed hammer. Fantastic.

Techno flipped town. Rinse and repeat.

On day 3, Psyche was off all wagons until Mogri had 5 votes. On the wagon Psyche goes. Sixth vote and counting on Mogri. Followed swiftly by BK201 (what a surprise), and then a hammer.

Mogri also flips town. Rinse and repeat.

But this time it becomes clear that Psyche's getting a little bolder; a little more comfortable with himself. He's only the (gasp!) *fourth* vote on Nobody Special, and he's followed by CF Riot, noraaa, and Pine is the hammer there.

Congratulations, another townie.

The next day, things aren't so easy. Psyche has a couple of votes on himself, and is even the leading wagon at one point, with 3 votes on him. BK's wagon grows and surpasses his though, 5-4. It's neck and neck coming around the final turn, both galloping and foaming as their jockeys do their damnedest, but Lucky Sevens manages to eke out a nose on The Back Nine in the final stretch, and BK201 finishes just milliseconds ahead of Psyche in a stunning upset. What a photo finish ladies and gentlemen!

Surprise. BK flips scum.

But the interesting part, which I had already predicted beforehand, was that Psyche and BK are scum together. The reasons Psyche quoted for voting BK were shit, and the reasons BK quoted for voting Psyche were pretty much nonexistent. It was pretty easy to piece the two together, given their interactions with each other throughout the game and the pattern of their voting.

For the record, Nightless games rule.

I will make it a point to join every single one I can from now on. They fucking rule for one reason. There's no danger of being night killed, and so you can say whatever the fuck you want and as long as people think you're town, you get to live forever because the only way scum can kill you is to mislynch you. So I can act however the fuck I want and not have to worry about attracting a night kill. Fuck yeah.

And the flip side of that is, scum don't have night times to sit there and discuss their play in private and get coaching sessions from more experienced scum buddies. So the dumb ones will obviously fall right away (redFF), the slightly less obvious ones will fall after a few misfires (Techno, I'm sorry, it had to be done. Nobody Special, you deserved it. Mogri, I knew you were town and tried to stop your lynch, but it was scum driven; and there's no doubt there because the proof is in the vote counts I posted), and then the final scum can be wrapped up into a nice neat little handbasket of FUCK YOU SCUM, DIE IN A FIRE, thanks to accumulated associative tells and vote/wagon analysis.

If you're not voting Psyche right now you're just being silly. And by silly, I mean you're being a fucking moron.

Good day.

Okay, let's consider this in the context of my inactivity, which was widepread in ALL of my games at the time.

Day One, I HAD to change to redff because of the momentum of the game. I was already losing interest and pating less attention to the thread. Where is the scummy there?

Day Two, I obviously was not paying attention at all. I would have stayed out of it altogether to avoid adding a badly informed element to it, but Techno had claimed scum! What townie doesn't vote a player who claims scum?!

Day Three, my vote was a completely legit experimentation with the reliability of gut reads. I can't help that it was wrong. I had a read and I went with it. I don't see how it was scummy.

Day Four, my reasons for voting BK were NOT bullshit. They were based on a huge sample of data (relative to the samples you guys use to draw your own conclusions) and upon the supposition that BK had committed a major scumtell, which he did.


And about the last part. You do know they have daychat, right? Because it seems pretty clear that they used daychat to get you to draw these incorrect conclusions.

[Psyche]

I know in every nightless I've been in, there's been daychat. : /

[Psyche]

Psyche, I could be mistaken, but I thought your meta argument was for Pine. How did you apply it to BK201 also?

That's just bad statistics

meta argument for pine, stat argument for BK

[Psyche]

By the by, UberNinja's ultimatum at the end of her last post reads as scared to me. Especially considering that she was defending and chainsawing for Psyche barely a few days ago.

Saying "If you're not
Keepin' on bringing that up, eh? Well I can't say I blame you. If town keeps lynching scum, whether there are two teams or not, there won't be much left now will there? And that's a scary thought... for scum.

Vote: Psyche

BK wasn't scummy kthanks.

BK was

scum

. I'm interested to know how you think that's not scummy?

Day One, I HAD to change to redff because of the momentum of the game. I was already losing interest and pating less attention to the thread. Where is the scummy there?

You only voted scum because you HAD to? uhhh

Day Two, I obviously was not paying attention at all. I would have stayed out of it altogether to avoid adding a badly informed element to it, but Techno had claimed scum! What townie doesn't vote a player who claims scum?!

Are you really saying that you would have avoided a townie lynch because you didn't want to look scummy, but then he claimed scum so you felt like you had a legitimate excuse? Because that's what I'm reading.

Day Three, my vote was a completely legit experimentation with the reliability of gut reads. I can't help that it was wrong. I had a read and I went with it. I don't see how it was scummy.

"I don't see how it was scummy?" You're using this game to experiment? At the end of the game, I'm not going to be happy with "well at least Psyche tested his gut reads;" I much rather to

win the game

. And you can't win the game by lynching town. Not to mention, someone with consistently wrong gut reads is either shamefully worse-than-random, or they're scum and they're trying to be wrong on purpose. And Mogri was so obviously town it was ridiculous.

Day Four, my reasons for voting BK were NOT bullshit. They were based on a huge sample of data (relative to the samples you guys use to draw your own conclusions) and upon the supposition that BK had committed a major scumtell, which he did.

Defending the reason you used the one time you actually voted for scum? Are you serious?

And about the last part. You do know they have daychat, right? Because it seems pretty clear that they used daychat to get you to draw these incorrect conclusions.

Pretty fucking sure this is a scum slip.

-_-

First psyche quote. Yes. I thought redff was town. >.>

Second. No, I was not saying that. Reading comprehension, man! I hadn't been paying attention to the game, so I thought it antitown to weigh in with a (totally misguided) vote. However, when I read that Techno had claimed scum, I thought, "well, I guess I don't need to be well-informed now to make a good vote." It really seemed like rational thing for a lazy person to do.

Third. Mogri was not obviously town and you're being disingenuous saying so. CF and noraaa are "obviously town". Mogri was a whole lot of alphabet soup. And I don't think my gut reads are worse than random. But it's a hypothesis to test, I s'pose. I HAD to go out on a limb and vote under uncomfortable conditions in that case. I really had no better reads. The experimentation was just a plus.

Fourth. I voted for scum more than once, thanks. But yea, I'm serious. Is that a problem? How?

Fifth. Pretty (fucking?) sure you're thinking poorly. Nightless and daytalk, in my experience, have usually gone hand in hand.

[Psyche]

I know in every nightless I've been in, there's been daychat. : /

How many nightless games have you been in?

Uh...At least 2. I think.

[Psyche]

I really have bad long-term memory.

[Psyche]

384. There goes one.

[Psyche]

Are you sure there's nothing you detest more? Because that sounds like a pretty pathetic thing to detest more than anything else.

[Psyche]

L-2??

Ugh. And then there's Pine and CF...I'm doomed. -_-

[Psyche]

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE DON'T LYNCH ME, GUYS!

Ah. That's all I got. Oh, and you'll be sorry. Seriously. Oh, sure, you'll rationalize the sorrow away with some cocky, "HE SHOULDNTVE ACTED SO SCUMMY" crap, but you will be.

Let me read up on d3

[Psyche]

VOTE: Psyche

Part of this is because I'm annoyed by his statistics, part is because I just don't see any point in them, but it's mainly just annoying.

If you promise me that you will not make any more crazy meta statistics, I will unvote you.

-_-

But kairyuu really did seem pretty fine. =\

[Psyche]

you fucking idiot vote defender or i'm hammering you

That's pretty persuasive. Annoyingly.

vote D3

[Psyche]

But over the long term, I really doubt the efficacy of that wagon and my position on it. Gah.

[Psyche]

you fucking idiot vote defender or i'm hammering you

That's pretty persuasive. Annoyingly.

vote D3

what the fuck is this shit

obv VI counter-wagon to scum counter-wagon is obv

Okay, I'm town, and I don't want to be lynched. Point out the incongruity in those two propositions.

[Psyche]

(If I'm unvoted, I'll probably switch back to Pine.) >.>

[Psyche]

<3

[Psyche]

you fucking idiot vote defender or i'm hammering you

That's pretty persuasive. Annoyingly.

vote D3

what the fuck is this shit

obv VI counter-wagon to scum counter-wagon is obv

Okay, I'm town, and I don't want to be lynched. Point out the incongruity in those two propositions.

[Psyche]

This whole "tunnel vision" thing is getting annoying.

Allow me to refer to this again, since it works so well as a response to your post:

you fucking idiot vote defender or i'm hammering you

That's pretty persuasive. Annoyingly.

vote D3

what the fuck is this shit

obv VI counter-wagon to scum counter-wagon is obv

Okay, I'm town, and I don't want to be lynched. Point out the incongruity in those two propositions.

[Psyche]

AND EVEN IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU SHOULD STILL REALIZE THAT YOUR LYNCH GOES 5000x TIMES FARTHER THAN DEFENDERS LYNCH BECAUSE YOU ARE A FUCKING CONTROVERSIAL BAG OF DICKS AND SHOULD DIE IMMEDIATELY FOR THE GREATER GOOD

HOLY SHIT, ROCKET SCIENCE

I think lynching Pine would go farther. Lynching me would only lead to WIFOM.

Unless you think my lynch would lead to Pine's death when I flip town...

[Psyche]

I'm pretty sure I've defended myself with actual reasons throughout the game and will do so in the future.

[Psyche]

This whole "tunnel vision" thing is getting annoying.

Allow me to refer to this again, since it works so well as a response to your post:

you fucking idiot vote defender or i'm hammering you

That's pretty persuasive. Annoyingly.

vote D3

what the fuck is this shit

obv VI counter-wagon to scum counter-wagon is obv

Okay, I'm town, and I don't want to be lynched. Point out the incongruity in those two propositions.

No, it doesn't work well. AT ALL. You're either fucking retarded or you're scum.

If you're town and don't want to be lynched, you'd defend yourself with actual REASONS instead of just saying "herp derp I'mma vote the counterwagon"

/labels as misrep for future statistical studies and as rhetorical effect

[Psyche]

I'm pretty sure I've defended myself with actual reasons throughout the game and will do so in the future.

See, there goes me defending myself with reasons right there. Should I go through my iso for more examples?

[Psyche]

AND EVEN IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU SHOULD STILL REALIZE THAT YOUR LYNCH GOES 5000x TIMES FARTHER THAN DEFENDERS LYNCH BECAUSE YOU ARE A FUCKING CONTROVERSIAL BAG OF DICKS AND SHOULD DIE IMMEDIATELY FOR THE GREATER GOOD

HOLY SHIT, ROCKET SCIENCE

Are you really trying to get me to self vote or otherwise accept my lynch. Is that really what you think the protown thing to do in this situation would be? What you would do as town in this situation?

[Psyche]

I'm pretty sure I've defended myself with actual reasons throughout the game and will do so in the future.

See, there goes me defending myself with reasons right there. Should I go through my iso for more examples?

you saying you've defended yourself with reasons, is defending yourself with reasons?

what the fuck are

you

on

Sure. You said it was a pretty protown thing to do.

I can go get other examples of me defending myself "with reasons". If you're incapable of (and/or deeply unwilling to for religious reasons) doing an iso or something.

[Psyche]

AND EVEN IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU SHOULD STILL REALIZE THAT YOUR LYNCH GOES 5000x TIMES FARTHER THAN DEFENDERS LYNCH BECAUSE YOU ARE A FUCKING CONTROVERSIAL BAG OF DICKS AND SHOULD DIE IMMEDIATELY FOR THE GREATER GOOD

HOLY SHIT, ROCKET SCIENCE

Are you really trying to get me to self vote or otherwise accept my lynch. Is that really what you think the protown thing to do in this situation would be? What you would do as town in this situation?

The pro-town thing to do would be to analyze the defender wagon, not VOTE IT TO PROTECT YOURSELF.

Already did evaluate the d3f3nder wagon.

[Psyche]

Better wagon than mine.

[Psyche]

In other words, the only reason people are voting Defender are because "well, it's not the Psyche wagon" and "because it's really not the Psyche wagon"

2 + 2 = scum driven counter-wagon

But then I'm preaching to the choir here. I want to know what people (besides the people I'm talking about) think of this ridiculousness.

I think it's a counterwagon to the lynch of a very important town player. :O

[Psyche]

I think it's a counterwagon to the lynch of a very important town player. :O

don't mistake us thinking you're town for us thinking you're remotely important; you are possibly the most useless piece of shit in this game.

I'm just joking. I sucked this game. Bad timing with school. And I may just be terrible at Large Game playing.

[Psyche]

And, of course, I may be terrible as town. >.>

[Psyche]

actually, looking back at things, crypto's voting history fits perfectly with what i'd expect scum voting history to be

also looking back at the vote counts, i see that BK201 was hardcore on Psyche's wagon the whole time, which means they probably weren't scum together

which means that psyche is on a different scum team.

which means that this lightning defender wagon is a last ditch attempt to save psyche

it all makes sense now

I lolled at that last sentence.

[Psyche]

I'm not flipping scum, you idiot.

Oh well, more free time.

[Psyche]

This game was enlightening. I learned something. I also learned that I suck.

I wish I hadn't let irl crap flub me.

[Psyche]

and fuck iphones I hope try die I hope everyone dies

This post is so crypto.

[Psyche]

i"m going to pull that nonsense again. More intelligently, but definitely.

[Psyche]

My failure with the stats included 1) trying to use past data to predict future behavior, 2) giving more weight to this data than merited, 3) using the data blindly and with confirmation bias (Pine never actually said anyone was flailing until after I had died, and he accused scum, which the data suggests might be called town tell), and 4) not acting with a sufficient degree of theoretical background.

I do need a better way of scientifically investigating mafia. I'll try focusing on doing case studies of strategies that worked and turn them into models instead of searching for correlations. Correlation searching is both too tedious and unproductive, since they're never strong or predictive enough to make a difference in my scum hunting.

Or maybe instead of searching for strategies, I'll look for 'scumhunting virtues', characteristics of protown play...
The work will be more theoretical and less quantitative, but until I get a good theoretical handle, I don't think I'll be able to organize any quantitative data intelligently...



A lot of you guys' complaints about it was pretty bullish, though. How can you complain about sample size when the data you use to make your own scumhunting decisions is MUCH more sparse? That seems like setting a double standard that I can't take seriously. Everyone gets a sense of what makes someone scummy from their knowledge of past games. What makes my attempt to do so regarding flailing somehow less meaningful?

[Psyche]

Even though you were scum, you found a lot of scum using a rather systematic method. I totally need to see if I can figure that thing out...