NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[JacobSavage]

VOTE: Plan B

I don't think I really have to qualify this one....

[JacobSavage]

VOTE: Senjai Obv Chainsaw, you obnoxious teenager

[JacobSavage]

i would say mre piggy is probably nervous town than scrum but so far there really has not been enough to say either way with any sort of uncertainty

[JacobSavage]

senjai looks more like naive town.

VOTE: Senjai Obv Chainsaw, you obnoxious teenager

If you thought Senjai was attacking Toonfighter to defend Piggygal then you must've thought both of them did something scummy at the time? Or was that not a serious comment?

vote: addorkable

It wasnt serious im afraid?
On a related note, do you think one of them where acting scummy at the time?

[JacobSavage]

i would say mre piggy is probably nervous town than scrum but so far there really has not been enough to say either way with any sort of uncertainty

Setting aside the remarkable fencesitting nature of this post, where do you get "nervous"?

Nervous isnt really the right word is it, I mean jumpy thats the word in that immidatly going on the defensive.

#3 - I'd like to hear JS's arguement for voting me.

There is no argument other than I haven't got any strong enough reads to move it to someone else.

[JacobSavage]

Town have a lot to be nervous, there's people killing each other and I don't have a gun!! it's scary

Also where is this question?

[JacobSavage]

oh it was a joke vote (sorry I thought I had answered it? )

[JacobSavage]

Are we really going to argue about RVS?

VOTE: PiggyGal

This is a serious vote

DIAF

I want bacon

Just going through everyones posts, and found this.
Only post (Not that I am one to talk, also adorkable has one RVS post still....) not a serious vote but accompanied with a non-serious comment....

[JacobSavage]

OPIONION TIME!!! HORRAY

Demon Core

Not much to go on, a post about a chemical reaction and then a vote which he then said was non random (posts 43,44,45, and 62) Gave me scummy vibes, not so sure about them though.

Cletus + Brandine

See post above, I mean its only one post but I just don't like it. Its a very gut thing, probably scum.

Piggy

Overall rather neutral, but did seem to be buddying a lot to Senjai (post 29) so if Senjai does flip scum then a Piggy lynch should follow soon after (However if Senjai is town, dont discount Piggy)

Nero Cain

Probably town, seemingly wanting to avoid a mislynch, not much else

4nxi3ty

His question to me did seam like he was trying to find someone to band wagon with, and his refusal to move his vote was a little odd. Not scummy but odd.

Senjai

Having lots of difficulty reading him, hes not standing out other than that he posts a lot, I would call him a null currently

So overall If I had to choose a top 3 I would say:
Anxiety, Demon Core and Cleutus.

What does anyone else think?

[JacobSavage]

@Demon Core. 1, they're not in any order at all. 2, i read you post, didnt make any sense to me so I ignored it. Also I gave up giving null reads after about 2 as it was going to just get a bit repetative.
Also N has not really much (by my recgoning 3 post or something?). In regards to NC, I read #46 as town trying to avoid a mislynch, by being cautious. Caution is good.

@ToonFighter. I have nothing but shit unfourtunatly, there is really nothing much I can find, I have spent a good 2 hours going through each persons posts (don't think i got down to Tripod, I had to cook dinner and that took longer than expected) and it was difficult enough to try and justify my thoughs rather than just state what is my gut instinct.
Second of all, I havent moved my vote because currently there is nothing worth moving it too.

Also going to be away from now too Sunday evening, might have some access but not much. Will post when possible.

[JacobSavage]

@Demon I based my list on the first post then whent through each individual post in alphabetical order, and when there was much i skipped them.
I also based it on what my gut said as I was reading through the posts. Nothing more than that. In recards to why certain people didnt make the list, it was becaues there was nothing worth commenting on.

@Senjai I also think not much has really happened, yes its been 50 posts buts thats only like 2 pages. Most of that was just waffle.
In my experience it is generally a town tell, in my opinion although that was formed from games over two years ago so much might have changed. My view of NCs cautious post is twon because i have used that same line as town ages ago. That is all.

@TheAMateur, care to expalin why I am scum and NC is not or will you just hop on the wagon?
-------------------------------------------------------
Also here is my full list of observations, taken directly out of my document. Enjoy:
N (Null)
1. Questioning, no issue
2. Asking questions, good (slightly scummy?)
3. Caution, good

4nxi3ty (Possibly Scum)
1. Late to Party, Misunderstanding RVS (#51)
2. Looking for someone to start a bandwagon(?) (#64)
3. Refusal to move vote, not that scummy (#88)


Nero Cain (Probably Town)
1. Self Vote, RVS (#4)
2. Soft Accusation on Senjai, not really much, null (#30)
3. Showing Maturity, Agreeing with others rather than just looking for fights, seemingly wanting to try not to have a mislynch. (#46)
4. Angry towards Senjai, wanting a Senjai lynch. Must have reasons, unlikely to be doing it as newb scum.

DoomYoshi (Nullish)
1. Reasonable points, not much else (#66)
2. Pressuring N to vote? (#85) Scummish?

Theamatuer


PlanB
1. Looking for easy wagon? Or Town with tell?
2. Hunting for clues?
3. Just questions
4. Hmmmm need more info
5. bALnk (#38)
6. Question to me (#50)
7.

Number Six


PiggyGal15
1. RVS (#5)
2. RVS (#11)
3. Descides Senjai is town (NB: If Senjai Scum, Piggy likely to be Scum too) (#29)
4. Post about Snejai Town, defence
5. Waffle
6. Waffle
7. More Waffle
8. Yawn!


Cletus + Brandine (Scum)
1. RVS? (#41)

Untrod Tripod


Adorkable (Neutral)
1. RVS Post, train noises (#17)
Toon Fighter


Demon Core (Slight Scum)
1. Confusing triple post about a displacement reaction and (#43-45)
2. Stating vote was serious (#62)

Senjai

(never got around to do)

[JacobSavage]

no I admitted that my reads were based on gut and I am terrible at explaining my guts.
Also that's is my best attempt I'm sorTy if it's not acceptable. p s. I was first on your wagon I think

[JacobSavage]

@Demon that's my point, he must have a reason because hrs unlikely to be newb scrum.

[JacobSavage]

Thate the point I'm making. We're both saying the same thing. My logic is exactly the same as yours!

I am saying that he can't be a newb scum attacking anything that moves as hes not a newb so he must have a good reason for it.

[JacobSavage]

no as in he's not acting like newb scum therefore he must have a valid reason behind it.

[JacobSavage]

It was a gut based on his posts in general. I cant really explain it anymore than that really.

[JacobSavage]

I'm just on my way to bed but I thought I should say 1. Cleuts is giving off scum vibes to me already and not in OMGUS. His argument on Mrs piggy is weak and mainly resting on the fact defending people you think are town is bad.

I'll reply to the rest of you in the morning but Inflatable Pie, we have played before haven't we? 112?

[JacobSavage]

@Plan B, this was in responce to this post.

Theamateur, My top scum read was TF, but as of late I'm not so sure anymore. His response after my gambit was pretty solid and he handled it pretty well in my opinion. Even if my gambit wasn't the best. You say NC isnt scum? I want to know why you don't think so.

JS and NC were the last on my wagon, both with illegitimate reasons. If JS flips scum i'd say he slipped up and was trying to defend NC (which isn't really possible given his reasons for my vote) and or wagon with NC.

@MOD

Same thing, visiting family this weekend (I get to go to Cambridge and pretend I'm intelligent, whooo!) so wont be back until 6pm GMT on sunday

[JacobSavage]

You should look at my meta, it might be interesting to see the number of times i have been lynched because of defending another player as mafia..... >_> (hint its 0)

Im also still rather lost on what the case on me actually is, is it just that I defended NC?
Because I will always defend someone that I think is town, hell I defened anyone if Im bored enough.

[JacobSavage]

@C+B Is defending people the bondage of the mafiascum world.
@ Doom, first that was purely what I thought at the time. they're my notes if you have something different please share and we can discuss our difference of opinion.

Also the reason why my vote is on Senjai is the same reason that I've said every other time. there wasn't someone who I thought was defiantly town.
However now I have someone better to vote for
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cleutus

for vague posts, hopping on bandwagon and not really doing much. probably new scum.

[JacobSavage]

what where the reasons behind the piggy vote was it RVS or not? (i thought that you were voting me actually, sorry I lost track)
I was more referring to your reads would you care to expand on precisely your reasons on why people are town and scum?


@Doom, yes it is but I have a letter somewhere saying I have dyslexia so feel bad :p

[JacobSavage]

@Red, the reason why I ask for others opinions is two-fold.
1. I never trust my own reads, and as such I automatically assume they are wrong. So by asking other people's opinions it's not so much that I'm asking for others opinions its more that if a couple of other people are picking up on similar things then I can have more confidence in what I am saying.
2. I like having lots of information for me to anaylise. I would prefer to have about 30 decent posts from a player before I can be more confident in anything I say about them. So thus by asking people's opinions meams people will post more and what they post I can look at and mull over. I hope this explains so of what you found scummy.

[JacobSavage]

@All I will post more responses to people tommorrow, I just saw reds as I was going to bed.

[JacobSavage]

I for one actually believe piggy's claim, I mean she will probably be dead by the morning but she might have something interesting to tell us if she survives.

[JacobSavage]

hello I got prodded. I will read the thread and post more over the weekend.

[JacobSavage]

PROD DODGE YAY!!

That and I really dont know what to make of the past few days.
For starters piggy's claim, yes i think we should belive it for now and move on.
I would lkie to know what is the reasoning behind the NC lynch firstly and the N lynch.
That is all for now. Will update more later.

[JacobSavage]

i think the plan of watcher on roleblocker may be the only solution bit if they turn out to be both mafia...

[JacobSavage]

I honestly can't see another option give we have a watcher and a role blocker,
I can't think of a test that 1. the mafia cant fake.
2. Would be able to tell the difference between alignment

[JacobSavage]

Thats L-1 by my recogning, just for everyone's information.

[JacobSavage]

I always prefer not to lynch PRs until at least D2 preferable, yet I have seen some games where they have turned out to be scum.

@Mod

My vote is still on Cleutus, does that mean we can have a site wide lynch of him....
But I still am liking my vote where it is, the only time I saw any activity on this slot was when I started questioning him, and since then he's kind of fallen away, even the replacement has had 24+ hours to get back and he still hasn't (I know I am not one to talk though). Other than that currently I am seeing nothing realy about either of the main two wagons, although if I had to choose one I would say Piggy has been more scummy overall but I will probably do a wall at some point tuesday/wednesday (I did not realise how close the deadline was oops...)

And @Piggy, the same as it is now F-16

[JacobSavage]

is anyone a little concerts that they went for Demon core?
Also should NC claim who he targeted last night?

[JacobSavage]

I still want to see a plane get lynched so;
VOTE: F-16

[JacobSavage]

@Nero don't claim. I assume you know this but don't. save it for later

[JacobSavage]

It gives about 4 mislynches assuming 2 kills a night where as 4 would give 3 mislynches. that and we don't know for sure that we don't have two scum teams, it could be 11v2v2. or 10v3v1

[JacobSavage]

For starters I would just like to say that is the first time I’ve ever had three men fight over me… I could get used to it…
Secondly I couldn’t sleep so I decided to do a quick overview of the thread so far, and then I got to

Toon Fighter

First of all I noticed that over all 24 of his posts he has changed his vote in 8 of them (not including his #18). Also ironically he in this post he questions Senjai for the reason:

Senjai,

why do you change your vote every post

, selfvoting even?

Looking back over the 20 vote counts we have had I found this:

15 times he has been on the largest wagon of the day (excluding ones where it was on himself)
4 times he has been on the second largest wagon of the day
Once he was not voting when a vote count was made.

Compare this to Demon Core, who we know is town, for an example: Out of 15, 4/9/0 leaving 2 that he was not obviously following the towns desires. And 6 of these times was on the N wagon which he pretty much started (#283 following Red Coyotes earlier post).

Now from this there are two possible conclusions one can draw without being too ridiculous about it. 1. He is just a scum looking for an easy lynch. Or 2. He’s is a just a townie who doesn’t like to draw attention to himself. I couldn’t find much in his posts to indicate an alighnemnt, although in fairness I couldn’t find much of his posts. So I’ve been doing some digging, firstly one of his most recent completed games Mini 1371 he was scum,

8 posts

and he was lynched D2, the posts themselves are very lacking in content, although the occasional half-hearted longer post if pushed. Again Micro 36 a grand total of 5 pretty content – less posts.

His town meta looks very similar e.g. NY 154 But if you just compare his two play styles you can see a couple of differences. He tends to post very little (much like he has been doing recently, and jumping on wagons without much thought, (i.e.#82 a post which is very much devoid of any real reads and instead just) Compare that to his town game where he at least tries to mount a defense, note how angry he gets when the town doesn’t listen and how much he looks into the theory (I don’t know the full context as I haven’t read the game but to me it seems that he is more than likely to be scum)

PEDIT: Screw it, it seams to be pretty much decided anyway, I'll stop here for now. Loves you all x

[JacobSavage]

I'm going to assume you have some sort of result that or some analysis you've done over the night.

Its quite interesting that there was only one death tonight, but that's something for later speculation.~

[JacobSavage]

^I'm going to assume that was sarcasm. .. but yeah I see your point.
Anyway do you have anything to announce?

[JacobSavage]

Ahh well done! You should be so proud!

[JacobSavage]

...

[JacobSavage]

Vote Count 2.05

Toon Fighter (5)- 4nxi3ty, Empking, RedCoyote, Gentlemen Bastards, N
JacobSavage (3)- F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Toon Fighter, Untrod Tripod
F-16_Fighting_Falcon (1)- JacobSavage
Plan B (1)- Nero Cain

Not voting: adorkable, Plan B

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

V/LA

Nero Cain
Adorkable- Until Saturday
Plan B- Until Sunday

Deadline

29th November, 6pm AEDT

I've been thinking. Why wait til now to kill the Roleblocker? For starters for scum that role can certainly cause problems for thier nightkill, afterall the watcher was dead so it couldn't be that. I can only think of three possible explanations for this (there might be more I'm tired)
1. Scum realised that NC could be quite an easy lynch to push for tommorrow given the early claim and the whole not dying in the night.
2. Scum thought that his reads where wrong enough such that he would be unlikely to target one of them
3. DemonCore posed a significant threat to one of their key members meaning that we should start looking at who DC didn't like which would be

VOTE: Untrod Tripod
(also sharmlessly hopping on the band wagon, might look into this in more detail Tuesday but until then. ~)

[JacobSavage]

EBOWP: ignore that quote its irrelevant.

[JacobSavage]

I think that includes both D1 &D2 wagons and who was on both. I think is what he did.

[JacobSavage]

Helllooo......

[JacobSavage]

Hello everyone...
Reading through and I personally think that we should wait for Nost to settle in before we start putting him to L-1, thats just a personal preferance. Secondly I dont think he is scum, a little confused yes, but not scum.

I still think that a UT lynch despite the fact he is my husband, is the best move for today.

@Mod

I forgot to mention, I will have limited access until Wednesday at 4pm GMT so won't be posting as much.

[JacobSavage]

UNVOTE:
I think given the current situation it should be a choice between Nost and Empking rather than UT for the time being.
Personally I would prefer to give the replacement some period of grace out of coutersy but at the same time Empking doesn't seem scummy enough to warrant a lynch.

Hmmm... Ill look over both of them soon.

[JacobSavage]

@N. yes, well I would certainly wait a little for some explanation.

[JacobSavage]

I think given the current situation it should be a choice between Nost and Empking rather than UT for the time being.

Why? Nost isn't claiming any role insight, and we (you and I) agree that UT is scum. Nost is still dumb - though "show me where you mentioned TF being scum at all before voting" being changed to "show me where you mentioned it three times before voting" does smell a little like scum wanting a dumb town read - which is null for Nost, and certainly null for me (I'm reading you correctly for your reason for wanting to narrow it down to me, right?).

No, not at all. I said that because, it certainly looked (at least for a time) that at least one of the two main wagons was scum (probably 1, not sure which though) and by encouraging everyone to be one of two wagons it means that anaylsis on the flip might be easier.

[JacobSavage]

I don't think so... I'm know really confused...

[JacobSavage]

EBWOP: now

[JacobSavage]

@Plan B

See I'm currently torn, see I totally see your case on Nost = scum, especially when it comes to the whole not having a proper set of reads.
I've tried looking through his meta but unfortunatly he hasn't got a single scum game so there isnt much to compare too in that regard.

But then there are some other bits and pieces about both of their plays that makes me think otherwise, I don't really want to say too much now, Ill explain in full tommorrow (possibly) but I have a theory.

However I've been looking through the VC's from Day 1 and it appears, to me at least that DY tended to follow RC's vote and vica versa. For example one of the first moves RC made was to hop onto my wagon that was going at the time. Then after sitting on piggy for a bit he followed RC down to DY to vote on N. To my untrained eye it certainly appears as both of them are just relying on safety in numbers to not get noticed.

So, UNVOTE:
VOTE: RedCoyote
If he flips scum, N should be regarded as town for the next Day or so, I can't see any reason why both scum would jump on their third buddies wagon so quickly.

[JacobSavage]

I would advise it . I mean its L-2 but looking at the activity levels it appears that we may get a deadline lynch.... So yeah a claim soon will be best for town in my opinion.

Also F-16 needs to post,

[JacobSavage]

16) No majority at deadline means no lynch occurs.
eliminated.

A no lynch is just as bad.

[JacobSavage]

@Nost, assuming a RC lynch goes through, who do you think is your strongest scum read if he flips town, who do you think is your strongest scum read if he flips scum?

@Plan B, I am more than willing to swap to Untrod if you think that he is more likely to be scum than RC, personally I think his insistence that Empking is scum does not seem like town play. Especially given that scum like being secretive and not drawing that much attension to themselves.

[JacobSavage]

UNVOTE:

[JacobSavage]

VOTE: Nost

Shameless sheeping of Gb and plan B.

Nost claim.

[JacobSavage]

Gah.... Go town x

[JacobSavage]

Well played Empking honestly thought that Arc was the SK .

Arc just for next time you don't vote in lylo til you have too, not that it would have made much difference

[JacobSavage]

Yeah.... not like both of them were scum

Im very impressed, although I have to admit when I was doing this post I had a horrible feeling that I more inital conclusion was wrong but I ignored it

Also GB why did you decide that I was town?

[JacobSavage]

^ adorkable?

In fairness this game was very slow, don't know why.