Cultafia: Game over

[Hjallti]

Starting reread now. Content will be either for today or monday.

[Hjallti]

Before I forget

unvote

I read to this point, I will catch up the rest later I hope but I just want to give this comment. (and that pages 1 to 3 are pretty much nulltell fights to get the game started, as far as I can tell)

In a normal game, I would agree with you. But in a game like this, I could see a random cult recruit intentionally sacrificing himself in order to cause one random mislynch; it might not be a bad trade for the cult in this game.

In my first reread I was also thinking almost this when reading. If mnowax is recruited first night*, he might play this ploy to gain 2 more nights for his cult, at the cost of possible one casualty: Blazerunner is killed today, and if found innocent mnowax is killed tomorrow, but as stated before a recruit-lynch is no that much better than a mislynch for town.

The main question under this ploy theory is why choosing blazerunner?

*we can assume there were two** possible new recruits, and as there is noone killed by the cultleaders they recruited different players, and one recruitment could have gone trough (or 0 or 2)

**for the sake of the argument when we have two cult leaders, could be for instance 3 as well.

[Hjallti]

I just went throught the tread the whole way, and will try to get to real content tomorrow, after pondering over it a day.

I do have some comments I can make now anyway.

I still don't understand mnowax claiming he 'knows blazerunner killed DrippingGoofBall'. In fact it was a blatant lie at that point. I did read the explanation that blazerunner seemed to know there was a vig and a SK, but that doesn't make sense to me at all.

blazerunner is cult, and I would think at this point only recruit (although I can see occult 's point that it is a leader, I don't think it is valid), it does mean his leader made a wron recruitment... why? unexperience seems more likely than experienced player hoping to misdirect us (this would imply that we discovered blazerunner fast, which happened but was not necessary).

Springlullaby has been evasive rather than really defending against Yosarian's attack, and I don't believe her. I can see Yosarian's case, so I will put her on L-2:
VOTE: vote:springlullaby[/b]

[Hjallti]

ebwop:

vote:springlullaby

[Hjallti]

Just for clarification:

As I understand it the plan with the two claims is:

mnowax is asked to vig Blazerunner:

if he succeeds then Blazerunner will turn up to be 'a recruit (formally roleblocker) shot'

if he fails it means one of the following:
*blazerunner is protected against one nightkill (and thus cultleader or sk, the latter seems not really possible anymore)
*mnowax was blocked or blazerunner was protected. This could only be done by town powerroles which would be unwise
*mnowax was not vigging which should mean he isn't able to vig, therefor lying and thus scum (cl, cr, sk).

Did I miss something or is that the plan? If so, is it already decided to do it this way?

[Hjallti]

I think Yosarian2 made good points and don't see crap in his logic. The fact that your defense is a general remark about it being crap and a crap answer about every scum player plays alike I don't think I have seen a good enough answer to convince me Yosarian2 is wrong.

Could you answer this hypothetical question? I want to check if I understand your point correctly.

Would you play differently in a game where you are Godfather and in a game where you are just a goon? Would it be good or bad for a mafia-team if goon played differently?
What if that Godfather can kill one more player than a mafia without godfather, would that make a difference?

[Hjallti]

EBWOP: my questions are directed to springlullaby, in case you are wondering...

[Hjallti]

I am clearly agreeing that claiming for not steadfast townie power roles is even worse than in ordinary mafia, as a kill would result in loss of one townie as a recruitment (which is after that claim certainly succesful (I mean cult is certain that the player is recruitable)) is an overall loss of two: one townie less, one cultist more. Therefor a powerrole claim of a townie is a double loss. this is clearly no crap to me.

I hate it when people use the WIFOM is bad argument the way SL does in her reply. WIFOM makes a lot of arguments shady or impossible, but that is not a general fact: it depends on how Wifom triggers. If you say 'i can use wifom here so it is crap' than that statement is crap itself. I am convinced that a cult leader and a cult recruit will and should play with another angle. A cult leader dying is worse for the cult than a mafia godfather dying for a mafia, and a cult recruit dying is much less bad than a goon dying for mafia. That is why I asked you that question indirectly.

[Hjallti]

I am not really consider my question to springlullaby about whether different kinds of scum would play differently answered....

[Hjallti]

First thoughts, while reading the posts

mnowax can been blocked by blazerunner and prevented blazerunner to kill Yosarian.

having a vig that only can vig every two nights, the mod might have decided to include two vigs. They are together as strong as one and if one is converted the balance is not that much harmed compared to have both converted.

Conclusion:

scenario 1a

The following scenario fits in with all we know and all what has been claimed so far.

We have at least 3 shooting roles: it is most probable we have a Sk and two vigs (half powered). ((The latter could have been a good choice from our mod to balance the problem that a single vig conversion of kill early might tilt the game out of balance.))

First night our SK killed DrippingGoofball
First day mnowax claimed vig and blazerunner claimed recruited RB and eventually RB.
Second night: SK and vig kill : vikingfan and blazerunner.
((Both have been under suspicion day 1, it is hard to tell who decide to go for which. The vig might have thought mnowax to be blocked by blazerunner and go himself, but that would be stupid, since if blazerunner could block he still was town, and pretty safe for recruitment because he already claimed to be recruited. So either the vig did not believe mnowax to be another vig, or the he decided to get rid of vikingfan))

scenario 1.2

there could be another explanation but I don't see it, without using assumptions like 3 vigs, 2sks, ...

scenario 2

mnowax could be cult and claiming falsely:

In this case the real vig decided yesterday not to counterclaim yet. Did he guess there could be a second vig? Did he think it was wise to not claim?

Here something strikes me as odd:
mnowax first post today is also somehow surprizing in that scenario as it would mean he choose to go by his explanation while he could as well have claimed to have attacked blazerunner. As his alledged action was blocked it could have been any. The weird thing is that his conclusion doesn't make sense (My action didn't go through so Yosarian2 was immune). But getting conclusions wrong is no scumtell.

mnowax-scum at this point makes less sense than mnowax-town.

general thinking

We have meanwhile possible 2 3-member strong cults (although it is against the odds that all 4 recruitment trials went through, it is still possible), and a SK... this worst case scenario gives a 3:3:1:5 which means cults need to start to get rid of eachother...

I know second guessing the mod is bad, but what about second guessing cult leaders? We already saw yesterday that we don't expect blazerunner to be converted soon. Who will be converted soon?

I would guess experienced quality players like: vollkan, CuriousKarmaDog, NabakovNabakov are already possible recruits. I am not familiar with most of the rest to put them on this list, but Occult would be next. We may assume that 3 of our 12 started scum. (3:1:8 would also be possible in fact and balanced but I think there are two cults.)

[Hjallti]

Another possibility is that TSS is the SK, was roleblocked, and one of hte vigs shot DGB night one.

which would make the vig shooting two nights in a row, as far as I can see, or we have 2 vigs apart from mnowax (regardless if mnowax is vig)....
seems unlikely somehow.

skruffs and nabnab: I haven't seen/played that many games on the site and I put in the names I know are experienced, which is due to a small sample of games. vollkan has been in most of my games for instance. I just didn't see skruffs and Yosarian that much, but as explicetly said I am not enough familiar, and thus implied I think it might be an idea (but I understand the WIFOM fussing it up) to look by that criterium but I can't do it. My list is to arbitrary. It was as an example. (if I not had done that some would have asked who I would put in I guess)

@mnowax. Are you still happy with your vote on Yosarian2? I can see why you voted, I don't see why you are still voting... it seems your points are invalid and it was shown by other players. Do you have another reason to keep your vote?

[Hjallti]

I just read throught TSS posts' of day1. personally I don't see any problems with those posts, and I don't see why he would be likely SK. I can see why he is the most likely SK, but only with a small difference with all the rest. He had just a different angle to look at mnowax's claim and it might be due that he had more knowledge, but I don't see that as more than a small indication.

TSS: Do you think Occult has to be lynched?

[Hjallti]

cult can better recruit than vaporize any player because it makes the cult bigger. As an easy example if it is 8:2 (suppose here 1 cult) vaporizing gives 7:2 and recruiting 7:3. Moreover town doesn't know in the latter case what happened and does know in the former (due to mod explicitly stated the modus operandi of death of the cults).

[Hjallti]

???? If you don't want to play the game ask replacement don't self-vote, it is completely not in favour of your own faction.

I am pretty sure mnowax is not town, and not my faction. He played bad throughout, so bad blazerunner got spoked and started to act weird itself. But this is beyond it.

Look mnowax, you committed to a game of mafia. betrayal, suspicion, unbelieve are part of the very mechanics of the game, if you are not up to being disbelieved and called a liar, then you ought not to play this kind of game. I don't think it is fun the way you are acting now. As said before I can see how you could have wrongly concluded on Yosarian2 if you indeed tried to attack him, but the way you react to the people showing your mistake could be labelled as inmature, caught or stubborn, but it is hurting town anyway.

I also don't like why your vote stays on Yosarian2, it looks like you considering it now as a randomvote, and only in the very first pages a random vote can be benificial for town, I would like to see you removing it. I don't claim here I know Yosarian2 to be town, I only don't think there is reason to suspect him more than anyone else.

[Hjallti]

Skruffs, you are voting me for leaving the word 'thus' in a sentence in my third language. Nice.

I am pretty sure mnowax is not town, and

thus

not my faction.

Do you have any real leads.

I can agree with people saying that mnowax play doesn't make sense as town and as scum, but I wonder if it is a nulltell. his moves indicate he has the urge to do something. Maybe he is so misinformed that he thinks he should try to move things all the time. He might be thinking his ploy of yesterday was a good idea since it trapped blazerunner, but don't forget that blazerunner was a mislynch. I just don't seem to find an angle to understand how he is playing.

[Hjallti]

I am assuming if you have the luxury of demanding real leads, from me, that you yourself also have real leads?

No, how so? I used 'real leads' as opposed to the strange statement that I was scum first witout apparent reason, and afterwards for some syntactical argument. Even if you try to keep on disagreeing with this, you should find this very logical.

[Hjallti]

My demand for replacement has nothing to do with anything inside this particular game. I explained the mod why i wanted replacement.