Antrax Returns: Game Over.

[mathcam]

Awesome, quite a few people I haven't played in many game with recently. All kinds of new info to digest.

And yeah, sketch is just asking to lose his title by letting Talitha write the scenes...

Cam

[mathcam]

Oh, then sketchwick should, um, give himself a run for the money this year then. Yeah.

Cam

[mathcam]

I think Antrax' argument against IS is pretty strong, but I think I'm going to

vote: jadesmar

, seeing as how he hasn't posted yet.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, in part

because

he hasn't posted yet, but my vote for him is not entirely random, but I'd be giving too much away about my role if I told you exactly why. It's not a guarantee, but it's enough that I'd like to put some pressure on.

Cam

[mathcam]

1) I never claimed Antrax' argument against IS was logically impeccable, I just said that it was relatively strong. IS saying "I wonder why Antrax didn't die" sure sounds like something he might say if he had deliberately avoided killing Antrax the previous night. Does the reverse implication hold (i.e. that IS saying that means he's scum and deliberately chose not to kill Antrax)? No, of course not. But is there a higher probability? Yes. And it's a

much

better argument than random votes, votes based on people's names, etc. I'll take what I can get on day 1.

2) Huh? I have nowhere near claimed, and a big

FOS: some people

for implying that I have, or (even moreso) for implying that I should. How am I "setting myself up for a fake claim later"? Wouldn't I be

better

set up if I hadn't just made a restriction on my possible later claims?

3) I want to be clear that I do not have definitive proof that jadesmar is scum, but it seems to me given what I know that he is our best option. Small FOS's for the quick bandwagon-hoppers.

Cam

[mathcam]

Can someone explain to me why anyone on the side of the town, would provide the mafia with clues to his role and keep the role secret from the town?

Maybe I have a crap role that can only do good once. Maybe

I'm very confused by the people who view the question as "Should we lynch jadesmar or mathcam?" Why on earth would you lynch me? No one has come out and said "Hey, I think I have info that says mathcam is scum." I'm not saying I'm a cop, but the idea of lynching (in, say, a newbie game) a claimed cop with no counter-claim just to see if he was telling the truth is totally ludicrous.

If you don't believe me, or don't trust my result, then fine, don't vote for jadesmar. I have respect for that decision...you have no reason to believe I'm telling the truth. Heck, I have my own doubts. But why do some people think that not lynching jadesmar implies that I should be the target? Maybe I'm mising something.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, good question. There isn't a lot that jadesmar could say or do that would seal or revoke my suspicion of guilt from him.

I guess my position now is that I stand before the town wondering aloud whether or not a half-baked piece of information is worh pursuing. If someone has a better idea, I'm all ears. Or we can just pretend I never said anything. I don't feel like I've given away much to the mafia, so if we think there's something better to look at, then no harm, no foul. At the same time, I'm severly handicapped as to what I can say about my knowledge (I know, I know, fake role claim, etc.).

On the other hand,

I

at least find out information about myself if we lynch jadesmar. That's a small plus. So yeah, I'm leaving my vote on jadesmar. The only other option I see is the IS-Antrax deliberation, and that's just something I feel will become more clear the more it plays itself out.

Cam

[mathcam]

It would be extremely helpful to me to hear from some of our less active posters. I can probably be of more assistance then.

Cam

[mathcam]

I just don't get this. How would hearing from the less active posters help you evaluate your results? I would like to hear from everyone before the day ends too, but the implication that results you've already received are somehow tied to participation today is very odd.

No offense or anything, but just because you don't get it doesn't mean it's not true.

Why can't we just accept that there are things in this game that some people currently know about that the rest of us don't? Is that

that

surprising for the Antrax returns invitational? I maintain my claim that certain people's inactivity is hurting my cause here.

Do people really feel that if I'm scum I've somehow

gained

something by going through this whole mess? We all know that if we lynch jadesmar and he turns out to be innocent, then everyone's going to be after me tomorrow, and while it's possible that I'll convince you all not to kill me, it's more likely that I won't. Why would I subject myself to that kind of risk if I were scum. Just to get rid of one innocent before I go? Hardly.

I'm trying very hard not to mislead the town, so let me come out and say that I'm neither a cop nor a gunsmith (nor, for that matter, a goober).

Cam

[mathcam]

Maybe we can just talk about something else for a while, i.e. Antrax and IS. I think it's probably I will get more information as the day progresses.

Cam

[mathcam]

mathcam: you still haven't answered my question. Why, since you weren't working off Antrax's logic, did you feel it necessary to mention it when posting a vote based on nighgt results?

I

was

working off of Antrax' logic with respect to the IS stance...I thought Antrax made a fair point with respect to IS and though I would concur with him. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding your question.

Cam

[mathcam]

Ah, no particular reason other than it didn't really make sense to double-post my two distinct thoughts. (I know, 2 at once?)

Cam

[mathcam]

(irtcam)

?

Cam

[mathcam]

This quote makes me believe mathcam more. I think there was something odd going on last night, and if there was, you should at least know why there could be confusion if you're not mafia.

Agreed, I now believe me more too.

I'll keep my vote on jadesmar and am now a little more confident that I'm right.

Cam

[mathcam]

jadesmar, how much info

do

you want me to give your mafia buddies?

Cam

[mathcam]

I don't really see how you can get more confident with what's been said here

That's because there's stuff you don't know. I realize I'm being annoyingly vague, but I really do feel like this is the town's best interests.

I am medium/mediuim-high on the confidence scale that jadesmar is scum. If you have a strong opinion for someone else, I highly encourage you to go after them. If you're wandering around aimlessly looking for someone to vote, then why do it randomly or on a "hunch" when you'll get a lot more information about me by following my lead.

Cam

[mathcam]

How does that follow at all?

Cam

[mathcam]

Do we know this for a fact? Or are we just thinking this because we didn't get any info on the Gambinos?

Cam

[mathcam]

Fair enough. I agree that there's absolutely no good to come out of lynching jadesmar before he's had a chance to talk.

Cam

[mathcam]

Now

this

is a game of mafia.

I agree that it was pretty clear from context that Antrax' "You are scum, you killed mith" form of attack was merely suggestive and not fact-based.

I agree with Cadmium, however, that his post wasn't really a "filler post," and that even if it was, it doesn't harm the game.

I still think TSS is, in general, clever.

Cam

[mathcam]

I agree.

Vote: Antrax

.

Cam

[mathcam]

Who said I was voting you for the same reason Yaw is? I'm nearly positive you're scum.

Cam

[mathcam]

Bwaaaa? Doesn't lynching Antrax, by the exact same argument, also give us info on Yaw? Plus, I don't really need more info on Antrax.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, I should have included a huge

FOS: TSS

for that last remark.

Cam

[mathcam]

I have in no way of cleared Yaw in my mind. Second, even if we got slightly more information from lynching Antrax, which I'm not so sure about, the fact that he's scum seems to counterbalance this. But I would like to hear your thoughts if you can remember them.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm totally with you against the "lynch all liars" policy. On the other hand, following a proven-to-be-correct-once-so-far investigator is less of a stretch.

Cam

[mathcam]

mathcam, it is very ironic that you, of all people, based on the information you received tonight, vote for me, on this day. If you persist, let me know, and I'll claim.

Is this what you were referring to? I didn't ignore this, I just didn't realize it needed a "yes" or "no." The information I have about Antrax is much less ambiguous than that about jadesmar, so I guess you can take this as a confirm vote if you want.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, given your last statement, I'm positive I'm being inadvertently obtuse (or you're scum and just messing with my head). Allow me to re-read, and I'll get back to you.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I reread all your posts, and I don't

think

I'm missing anything. For what it's worth, I think most of the arguments against you are crap (at least the IS-based ones), and to me, it's totally up in the air as to whether or not you were scum with IS.

I feel like you're referring to the "it is very ironic that you, of all people, based on the information you received tonight, vote for me, on this day." I just don't see the irony, or what I'm missing, so if I'm being a dunderhead, I apologize in advance, but I can't help but feel you're just trying to set up your fake role claim.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm PMing the mods. I might be being deliberately misled...let me find out what I can about my role.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, I don't know what to think any more. I know that Antrax belongs to a "mafia family." Sigh.

Cam

[mathcam]

mathcam, I think what this means is that in this game you're a paranoid cop, pretty much.

Well, if your claim is valid, then I'm even

less

than that. I can basically determine if a player is still alive or not. Of course, you could still always be full of crap. I suppose that will have to be determined later..maybe a

competent

cop could investigate Antrax tonight?

Unvote: Antrax

Time to go hunting on the bandwagon trail.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry if I was unclear. All I know about Antrax is that he's part of a "mafia family." I'm as unsure about what this means as everyone else.

Cam

[mathcam]

Oh, then what did you mean by this question?

Oh, and Mathcam -- since you're doubting your results...what were they?

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm finding Antrax' claim sketchier and sketchier, and my new suspicion has nothing to do with "mafia families," as that whole issue is perhaps a red herring.

On night one I protected myself, and much to my shock, I was not informed I prevented a night attack, meaning people actually refrained from attacking me on night 1 in a game that has my name on it. That was part of the reason I thought IS had planned to lynch me instead of kill me in the first place.
In night two I protected you, and was informed I saved your life. I was hoping that the mods have informed you similarily, but apparently they have not, meaning I've had to claim.

Why would you be shocked that you were not informed that you prevented a night attack? Even if someone

had

attacked you, the vast majority of doc roles on this site dont' let the doc know if they've been successful. Consequently, I'm also very suspicious of your second claim, that you were

told

that you saved my life. For me to believe this, I have to believe that a) Someone targeted me, meaning there were 3 kills slotted for last night, b) They did this despite the fact that I was clearly the most likely choice for doc protection, and c) You have this very unusual doc role that gets told when they're successful. While neither of these, clearly, are impossible, taking them together means that I think you're the best lynch for today.

If you're looking for other reasons to be suspicious of Antrax, I think there are many cues that he's BSing the town. Every time he says he's shocked about something or that he can't believe how stupid someone is for something, it feels like he's just overdoing it to get us to back off.

Finally, lynching Antrax gives

me

further information about my role, so I can make a better judgement with what to do wih any information I get for tomorrow.

Vote: Antrax

(Yes, yes, I'm retarted, Antrax, etc. etc.)

Cam

[mathcam]

Tigris, your main point was that you were bored with following the investigator! The only thing you've point you've made since then is the rather obvious one that if Antrax was telling the truth, the mafia would want him dead.

I, quite bluntly, do not think he's telling the truth, either about being a doctor or about being a Gambino (well, possibly a scum doctor, I guess). I can't imagine that with the mafia we've seen, that I could possibly be as weak of a role as that would imply.

So, let's go for another angle. Since none of you seems to care that I:
1) Caught a mafia on day one.
2) Claimed a role that fit the investigation result before hearing it.
3) Gave you all the info from my role, even the parts that would make you more suspicious of me.

1) That doesn't mean anything in a game with multiple mafia groups,

especially

when there's suspicion that you may have done this to one of your co-mafia anyway.
2) Your role had nothing to do with it...it's not like I knew you managed to miraculously match my info by claiming "doc." Your claimed

name

is the only thing that fits. And while we're at it, doc is one of the easiest claims to fake. You're trying to make it more believable by adding on whistles and bells, but the unlikeliness of these additions just makes it less and less plausible that your claims is anything but BS.
3) So? This is obviously something mafia could do also when they were making up their claim. If you're appealing to the "Lynch all Liars" strategy for your reasoning here, keep in mind that you've already confessed that you occasionally making stuff up as part of your claim even when you're town.

Cam

[mathcam]

In response to all of Antrax' points: Fine, whatever. We're all idiots. But you still claimed a ridiculous role, and even

if

you're telling the truth about your abilities, your alignment is another issue altogether.

As for the game theory, if it's advantageous for scum to be alive longer, it's disadvantageous for the town to let them live longer. So if the algorithm were to always let claimed docs live, it would always be advantageous for scum to claim docs. Always lynch docs instead? Of course not. But lynch claimed docs who appear suspicious for other reasons? By all means.

I see no reason to reveal my info on jadesmar...this is a type of information I will likely be getting again in the future, and it may or may not benefit scum to know what to expect. My suspicion on Antrax is now very much independent of my "investigation" last night.

Cam

[mathcam]

You're asking why it's better to lynch mafia sooner rather than later? Because who knows what's going to happen between "sooner" and "later." Lynching a townie one day and scum the next is not the same as lynching scum one day and then a townie the next. Sure they might end up being the same a good portion of the time, but what if between day 1 and day 2 you find another scum? It's now going to take you an extra day to get rid of them, and in close calls, that might make the difference of a game.

Cam

[mathcam]

No, you asked a more general question, my answer to which involved illustrating one example when this was particularly clear. The general principle is the same.

And good point, CoolBot.

Cam

[mathcam]

What I'm really curious is, since it's clearly so obvious, please explain to me why you have to lynch scum IMMEDIATELY.

You know very well there can be no explicit proof of this, precisely because it's not true: It would be very easy to construct counterexamples, so badgering other people for a proof is being completely disingenuous and you know it. Instead, this is a rather intuitive notion that is seen to be true in some very simple examples like the one I provided. And with some reasonable assumptions on the possibilities of the roles in the game, I think it applies in particular to our current scenario.

Cam

[mathcam]

Plus, lynching Antrax is still rude (possibly correct, but rude).

a) Huh? Why would that be rude?
b) What difference would that make?
c) Would that stop Antrax from doing it?

Cam

[mathcam]

You know very well there can be no explicit proof of this, precisely because it's not true: It would be very easy to construct counterexamples, so badgering other people for a proof is being completely disingenuous and you know it.

While I love mafia strategy in general, right now I'm talking about MY OWN SITUATION. And in it, the correct move is to keep me alive, by and large. I expect people who dispute this to explain why.

Okay, well even in the scenario we have now, there are certainly instances where the distribution of roles mean lynching you is correct, and other distributions where lynching you is not, even if we knew for a fact you were scum. So my point here stands.

So...please....explain....how. I've gone through the trouble of explaining why keeping me alive doesn't hurt anyone, and how future events can prove my innocence. So why won't you give me the benefit of the doubt?

Honestly, I may have skipped over this when reading through your numerous posts, or simply forgotten. The "future events" that can prove your innocence is having a real cop investigating you and coming forward? Because if that's it, it

is detrminental

to keep you alive if we think you're scum... you're costing the town's cop an investigation that we would be able to use elsewhere.

Mods, we've got some pretty big lurkers here: MMCL, rite, MGIA, etc.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, if I was distributed the role of scum, it's a good move. Please enlighten me HOW you can tell about the role distribution in this game?

I thought it was clear that I meant the "distribution of roles" in terms of what roles were present in the game, not how the roles were distributed to the players. And your reponse has nothing to do with my point. You were asking for a proof that it was right to lynch you today. My point is that you're not going to get one, because the statement "Whatever people's roles are out there, it's best to lynch Antrax right now" is quite simply false, because we don't know what roles are out there. That doesn't mean it's not a good idea, though.

No, and you know it well. Please stop trying to put words in my mouth.

Please read my posts more carefully in the future.

Well, which is it? Am I knowingly twisting your words, or am I not reading your posts carefully? I guarantee you it's the latter, but attacking me for both is ridiculous.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm saying I can't

prove

it's the best move, though it is still my informed opinion that it is. If you can prove to the contrary, then I will of course remove my vote.

In the meantime, I find your role claim

incredibly

suspect, to the point that it will take a decent amount of information to the contrary to convince me otherwise. I'm not sure I've

ever

played in a game where a doc could self-protect, or where he/she was notified when they saved someone's life.

That last quote had nothing to do with politeness. You simultaneously accused me of doing two contrary things...uknowingly misreading, and deliberately misrepresenting. I mentioned that this was ridiculous. The fact that you are starting to put "please"'s in front of all your sentences does not change or enhance the merits of your argument.

Despite all your claims to the contrary, I am not rushing your lynch. I'm quite happy to wait until everyone sees it.

Cam

[mathcam]

You're saying Sherlock Holmes was a self-protecting doc? Even here, this is an a game

you

designed, which is just further evidence that it's a role you'd be likely to make up. You did it when designing your game, and I think you're doing it now.

Cam

[mathcam]

Deadline results in no lynch?

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I wasn't going to unvote Antrax if he was here, and I'm not going to unvote him just because he's not. I think, as I have said several times, that his role claim is highly unbelievable, and combined with my information from last night and the fact that I think he's lying about just about everything, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the right lynch today.

I'd like to hear from someone besides Antrax a reasonable defense for him.

Cam

[mathcam]

Perhaps the fact that it

is

less useful is already somewhat of a sign that I'm pro-town. A mafia cop itself probably isn't jerked around like this.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, tomorrow, I'm definitely going after today's quiet ones. People who are too afraid to give anything away by just talking in this game seem extremely scummy.

TSS, I see your argument, but I'm confident enough in the fact Antrax is full of it that my vote's not moving. Combine this with the fact that at least the connotation of my night-time investigation is definitely pro-scum, and I almost can't believe anyone's voting for anyone else. Let's save Yaw for tomorrow.

Cam

[mathcam]

LOL. This town is getting more and more sketchy by the minute.

Cam

[mathcam]

I got the same thing as I got on jadesmar, but for someone else. I'll need to hear more posting before I can say anything with confidence.

Cam

[mathcam]

While I'm thinking about whether or not to reveal, isn't it weird that we have no other information coming from anywhere? Surely

someone

else has something to say. In any case, there's a

ton

of information around from yesterday that we should be able to make use of.

Cam

[mathcam]

Some people I would like to hear more from: jaguar, mole, rite.

Cam

[mathcam]

Huh? Why? I was very up-front about what my info yesterday...that Antrax was from a

mafia family,

which he was.

Okay, I'm going to

Vote: MGIA

because I think he's scum.

Cam

[mathcam]

Nice try, gnome. Vote stays.

Cam