Dichotomafia- Games Over

[ralphmerridew]

Day one list? Is that an arbitrary vote, or does it have any in-game knowledge attached?

[ralphmerridew]

Sorry if I've been quiet; I'm not as familiar with the people on mafiascum, so I'm observing until I have more of a feel for this game. I'm kind of suspicious of PB; he explicitly says his vote is "not random", then admits it was arbitrary.

[ralphmerridew]

I know that random and arbitrary mean different things; I just think it is odd that you specifically state it is not random when there isn't anything behind it. Most people, when they state their day one choice is not random, are making an indirect cop claim.

[ralphmerridew]

Question to MMCL:

Is your information about Talitha such that, were she innocent, she would have a good idea what sort of role would see her as suspicious?

For example, if she were an investigator who had check TSS last night, she could guess that you might be a tracker.

Alternately, if you were a tracker, had followed X last night to Talitha's, and decided to vote here to see if X joined the bandwagon, she would have no idea what sort of information you had.

[ralphmerridew]

MMCL, you're being very evasive. Which of these is the case:

a) Your information marks Talitha as definitely being scum, but your information could be wrong (i.e., you are a cop, but you could be insane).

b) It is possible that Talitha is innocent but your information is correct (i.e., you are a tracker who followed Talitha to tss).

Also, is your information binary (you get one of two results, guilty / innocent) or not?

[ralphmerridew]

MMCL, you didn't answer my question. Which of these is the case:

a) Your information marks Talitha as definitely being scum, but your information could be wrong (i.e., you are a cop, but you could be insane).

b) It is possible that Talitha is innocent but your information is correct (i.e., you are a tracker who followed Talitha to tss).

Also, is your information binary (you get one of two results, guilty / innocent) or not?

[ralphmerridew]

To FD:

But fair enough once again you push me to claim my Role-

I am a roleblocker---I obviously do not know for fact wether the person I blocked or not is scum. I had hoped time to figure it out but alas no such luck.

The person I blocked was Uraj45

- I mentioned him once when he jumped on Talitha but actually hope to just mull around with my vote and figure it out. But know once again a diversion toward me worked and you out a role player.... HAPPY?

(Bolding mine, all else PB's.)

[ralphmerridew]

Apologies for getting behind; I'm doing a bit too much right now, and this fell behind.

Ordinarily, my reaction to this would be "follow the cop", but MMCL is giving off bigger "scum vibes" to me with his refusal to say ANYTHING definite about his role.

[ralphmerridew]

MMCL, you didn't answer my question. Which of these is the case:

a) Your information marks Talitha as definitely being scum, but your information could be wrong (i.e., you are a cop, but you could be insane).

b) It is possible that Talitha is innocent but your information is correct (i.e., you are a tracker who followed Talitha to tss).

Also, is your information binary (you get one of two results, guilty / innocent) or not?

[qupte="MMCL in post114"]Also - the calls for me to reveal that I am a cop. What do you want me to say? At this stage I won't say I am and I won't say I am not. Just that I believe I have the town's best interests at heart and that I think it is highly likely that Tally is scum. [/quote]

B cannot be correct ralph... I am not saying if A is...

This is the main post that's making me suspicious of MMCL.

If he's a standard cop, why hasn't he just said so? What does he gain by being mysterious?

If he's a less specific information role (like tracker or gunsmith), I can understand his refusal to give a specific role; it would tell the scum what sort of lie to tell. But why refuse to give any sort of response?

When I was Miss Infrared (tracker) in Clue Mafia, I followed the SK night 1. Day 1, I tried to subtly push for his lynch; when that failed, I directly claimed that I'd investigated DP, that my result had given me good reason to believe him guilty, and pushed for him to role-claim. As it happened, he claimed townie; after that, I would have been willing to state my information directly contradicted his claim, and that the town could lynch me or vig-kill me if his claim proved true. (Unfortunately, I flubbed the play at that point, and didn't post as well as I could have.)

OTOH, MMCL won't even say, "Yes, I have an investigative role." That strikes me as a way to keep open a day 2 defense of "I'm not a cop; I just I was voting based on her behavior."

That sets my scum-o-meter off completely, so until MMCL can commit to

something

,

Vote: MMCL

and FOS: Everyone who's following MMCL despite his wishy-washyness.

[ralphmerridew]

Now that you've finally committed himself to something, I will

unvote: MMCL

.

Also, is your information binary (guilty / non guilty)?

In response to your comments:

Yes, Talitha has given me cause to believe she is probably good. Combining that with your (IMO) suspicious refusal to commit to anything led me to believe you were lying. Because you have since claimed, I'm going to have to carefully think it over.

[ralphmerridew]

Well, I had looked through all the posts for such a message, but must have overlooked it; where did you specifically commit yourself?

[ralphmerridew]

I remember Improbable role mafia; if you're referring to mith (Spanish Inquisition), he was actually lynched the same day (his ability could cause somebody to die at day with three votes).

[ralphmerridew]

well the standard werewolf roles are seer, angel and werewolf-

norinel has indicated that he changed the names of the roles.

Angel apparently is called healer

Seer is called ??

so those are straight basic roles.

Angel is the werewolf name for the mafia-hunting cop.
Archangel is the ww name for mafia-protecting doctor.
Seer, IIRC, is the ww-hunting cop; sorceror is the ww-protecting doc.

[ralphmerridew]

How many votes are there on PB? With most players, when they are town, I can rely on them to at least try to act in the interest of the town. But with PB, I can't be sure. So, in the absence of any information, I feel fewer qualms about lynching him. And, PB, I think that I'm not the only person who feels that way, so that's why you tend to get lynched so much.

[ralphmerridew]

The reason I'm voting Fuldu is because I've noticed that when people say in games that they are not going to roleclaim when they are so close to a lynch are usually scum.

I don't know about usually, but last time I saw somebody refuse to roleclaim despite being so close to a lynch, that person turned out to be a doctor. Dichotomafia, Town Day 1, remember it?

[ralphmerridew]

Well, Lepton MMCL, would you care to explain your actions yesterday?

[ralphmerridew]

That sucks.

[ralphmerridew]

From MMCL, we know that there's at least one unreliable cop in the town; we probably have at least one in the village. Any signalling that willows_weep did yesterday would have been on the basis of one investigation.

[ralphmerridew]

Why even guess at willows' results? We're in Dichotomafia, remember?

[ralphmerridew]

Well, the fact that you helped to lynch a doctor, a cop, and the fact that there was no kill on the night you were blocked does make you look a bit suspicious.

[ralphmerridew]

Vote: Flying Dutchman

Just following others.

[ralphmerridew]

There was another person with just as much votes, care to give a reason?

I have a reason for voting you over Wacky, but it would not be useful to the town. For now, all I will say is that, from my POV, it is slightly more likely that you are scum than that Wacky is.

[ralphmerridew]

"The Giant Flying Pumpkin That Shoots Laser Beams Out Of Its Butt":

First mentioned by Antrax as a joke in Veggie Mafia, then appeared in Improbable Role Mafia.

Each night the pumpkin must shoot at, or aim at, another player. If it shoots at, it has a 75% chance of killing the target, and is immune to night kills. If it aims at, nothing happens that night, but if the target was evil, it will die the next night.

[ralphmerridew]

You were lynched in the town, but you're alive in the village.

[ralphmerridew]

Since the bandwagon against FD seems to be falling apart,

Unvote: FD, vote lulu

[ralphmerridew]

Still here, and I'll wait until lulu says something.

[ralphmerridew]

A no-lynch is generally bad for the town, so we need to pick somebody. And with all your votes this close to the deadline, it might as well be you. Do you care to claim?

[ralphmerridew]

I'm still watching.

[ralphmerridew]

We need to lynch somebody, and AFAICT, Coron is as good as anyone else.

[ralphmerridew]

bump.

Confirm vote on Coron

. We can't make this omelette without breaking somebody's eggs; this game will die of stagnation if we don't lynch.

[ralphmerridew]

First, yay about the dead werewolf.
Second, we wait for willows_weep to share her results.
Third, then we decide who to lynch. (Though I seem to recall you were a top candidate for lynching; it's been a long night.)

[ralphmerridew]

Mod, could you prod everyone who hasn't posted yet today, specifically including but not limited to willows_weep?

[ralphmerridew]

Vote: Nanook

I don't buy it.

[ralphmerridew]

MGM: You can't vote for Wacky; he was just killed.

Talitha: I think willows had two innocent results (any cop in her situation with opposite results would have announced that fact). While PB isn't certain to be innocent, he is, at least for now, more likely to be innocent than a random townie. If, later on, we lynch the GF, then PB can move to the "very likely innocent" list; if, after a large number of lynches, we've failed to catch the GF, that's cause to reexamine PB.

Vote: STD

for acting completely differently in the two games.

[ralphmerridew]

I'll be away for the weekend, so don't lynch me in the meantime.

[ralphmerridew]

You've been feeling confused? I started having that "Excuse me, my head just exploded." feel back on town day 1.

[ralphmerridew]

Until I can be replaced:

Unovte: STD

[ralphmerridew]

(following Talitha)

Vote: SpeedyKQ

[ralphmerridew]

With the deadline approaching, I'd rather not dilly-dally. Don't vote for me. I'm a mason.

[ralphmerridew]

Unvote: Speedy, Vote: Fishbulb

See his post 763:

Why am I being prodded? I just posted last page. Everyone just posting to complain about others not posting is just as bad as not posting. At least add some content if you're going to do that.

Oh well, I don't see Coron as scum. I find it more likely that all the scum are already on his bandwagon, hence the lack of discussion. They don't want to change the subject, and the rest of us have nothing to go on.

I guess at this stage, it would be best to just lynch him so we can move on. But like he said, why get rid of an active player just to move the game along? Why not get rid of an inactive so at least we will have a better chance at continuing tomorrow?

Fishbulb is voting for me now, there's a vote on him now, and he was specifically against lynching scum Coron. It's not much, but lynching a mason is bad, and the best way to avoid my deadline lynch is starting a counterbandwagon, and he's the best target.

[ralphmerridew]

If the game is large enough for a mason lodge, and the claim is not challenged by another person also claiming mason, the town generally does accept the claim, at least temporarily, without corroboration. Scum generally don't claim mason because it's too risky.

If numbers close up enough later without producing another mason, the town
may ask for some confirmation.


That is, for now, I'd rather not give the werewolves any more information than necessary.

[ralphmerridew]

Reluctantly?

FOS: Speedy

[ralphmerridew]

Why towns generally take mason claims with out corroboration:

- Assuming there's one mason group, any scum who claims mason will get challenged by a member of the lodge.
- Scum don't benefit that much from IDing a mason. (In strongly themed games, scum may claim roles which are sure to exist, like Sherlock Holmes, because they benefit from learning who holds that role.)
- If a person has an uncorroborated and unchallenge mason claim, his/her hands are tied. When the town shrinks to a small size without revealing any masons, the town then asks the claimant to identify a fellow member. A real mason can identify his lodge, a lying scum will have to identify fellow scum, or get denounced by whoever he claims is in his group.

Therefore, once a scum makes that claim, an eventual lynch is inevitable.

A fake claim of mason is bad if there are masons, and gains little even in the best case. As a result, towns generally accept mason claims. (See Rock & Pop 2 on GL, where mason Dan was forced into a claim early on, but did not identify either buddy until the endgame.)

(And I'm feeling better; cancel the search for replacement.)

[ralphmerridew]

Why towns generally take mason claims with out corroboration:

- Assuming there's one mason group, any scum who claims mason will get challenged by a member of the lodge.
- Scum don't benefit that much from IDing a mason. (In strongly themed games, scum may claim roles which are sure to exist, like Sherlock Holmes, because they benefit from learning who holds that role.)
- If a person has an uncorroborated and unchallenge mason claim, his/her hands are tied. When the town shrinks to a small size without revealing any masons, the town then asks the claimant to identify a fellow member. A real mason can identify his lodge, a lying scum will have to identify fellow scum, or get denounced by whoever he claims is in his group.

Therefore, once a scum makes that claim, an eventual lynch is inevitable.

A fake claim of mason is bad if there are masons, and gains little even in the best case. As a result, towns generally accept mason claims. (See Rock & Pop 2 on GL, where mason Dan was forced into a claim early on, but did not identify either buddy until the endgame.)

(And I'm feeling better; cancel the search for replacement.)

[ralphmerridew]

Vote: STD

Explain yourself.

[ralphmerridew]

STD: You claimed you were a vig in the village. Would you demonstrate that ability by killing somebody who hasn't been cleared in the village?

[ralphmerridew]

He can't kill you in the village; you were just lynched there. And I'm not sure who STD should target; he's the only person I find suspicious village-side.

[ralphmerridew]

You can claim now, or you can wait for the issue to become moot.

[ralphmerridew]

Will this vest protect the player for that night only, or will it protect the player from the next attack, whenever it comes?

[ralphmerridew]

those who are publicly uncertain:
Mastermind of Sin / FD
Mgm
the silent speaker
halfpint (Replacing silgado106)
NanookTheWolf

those who I consider cleared:
PeaceBringer - good by willows_weep
Save The Dragons - vig (almost certain)
ralphmerridew - Mason (not challenged by Talitha)

I'm not identifying anyone else in my mason lodge for now.

[ralphmerridew]

Well, MGM, personally I don't see why I should consider you or Nannok to be a more likely innocent than anyone else; would you care to give your claim first?

[ralphmerridew]

I want to see Mgm claim first; he's been acting most suspicious to me.

[ralphmerridew]

I'll explain my reasons after you claim. But for now, since we know that masons are in the game (through Talitha's death), and she didn't challenge my claim yesterday, I believe I am the most cleared person in the village.

[ralphmerridew]

And I will confirm that TSS is the last mason.

[ralphmerridew]

In defense of Nanook, the town also had two cops. (Did willows_weep give her other investigation (but we can get that from her in the town)? It's also possible that she was naive / insane, in which would put PB at a less confirmed status.)

I'll augment TSS's suggestion: today we lynch MoS; tonight Nanook checks MGM and STD kills halfpint.

[ralphmerridew]

I'm a townie. As for my actions, I attempted to protect Talitha day 1 (being masons in village, we could converse out of thread; I believed her story); I was also voting Nanook and STD from the starts of those days.

[ralphmerridew]

There are indeed three masons in the village (ralphmerridew, Talitha (deceased), and the silent speaker).

[ralphmerridew]

With Wacky and MMCL both having investigative roles, I don't think we have any more investigators in town.

[ralphmerridew]

Fuldu, you're making me feel like Dave in http://crfh.net/d/19990302.html . I'd been sure for some time that the games only had one scum family each, with no SKs, and you have to go and stoke my paranoia.

[ralphmerridew]

Fishbulb? Uraj? ww?

[ralphmerridew]

Almost everyone has claimed:

Mastermind of Sin (Replacing Flying Dutchman)

claims Mason

Fuldu

claims Townie

Uraj45 (Replacing KingEnigma (Replacing Uraj45))

claims Cop

willows_weep -

???

Fishbulb -

???

Coron (Replacing lulu muumuu) -

claims Vig

ralphmerridew -

claims Townie

[ralphmerridew]

Technically, we're also missing PB's village claim. Also, I can't remember if ww gave her other village result.

[ralphmerridew]

First, notice that nobody has claimed bulletproof vest. With only one scum group, those guys need to be lynched (requiring at least two scum to survive to endgame) or vigged (unlikely). While the games don't have identical distributions, I doubt something like that would be in one game but not the other. If there's a village blocker, please block halfpint.

Personally, I think Fuldu is the most suspicious person; right at the beginning of this day, he did his best to confuse the issues (throw suspicion on PB who had given us Nanook, suggest serial killers).

[ralphmerridew]

MoS: How strong is your hunch?

[ralphmerridew]

Tally: You have to keep your knowledge as Tally 1 (doc / mason) separate from your knowledge as Tally 2 (claimed nurse / seer). It doesn't matter that much in this case (I'd told the town all that earlier today).

[ralphmerridew]

Uraj: Who do you suspect?

[ralphmerridew]

I'll be away from my computer until after deadline; could

you lock my vote to MoS's

(that is, make me vote for the same person that MoS is voting for)? If that's not possible, set it as a

vote for Fuldu

.

[ralphmerridew]

Back from the fishing trip. PB, what's your role?

[ralphmerridew]

How about this strategy:

1) Today, town lynches MgM.
2) If the game doesn't end, STD kills PB; if PB is mafia, he can kill whomever he wants.
3) Next day, if game isn't over, town lynches STD.

I think the only way that plan will fail is if MgM and PB are werewolves, and STD is an SK. Since that would come to 5 maf and 1 sk out of 16 people, I think we can safely assume that won't happen.

Oh, MgM, before we lynch you, could you confirm that you and MoS were the only masons in town? (Not that there's any real doubt about it.)

[ralphmerridew]

Wait: before we lynch Mgm, PB: Who did you block each night?

[ralphmerridew]

Huh. Thought you hadn't mentioned it, but I searched and found that you had posted that you hadn't blocked for two nights. Oh, well. Nothing more to learn in village.

Vote Mgm

[ralphmerridew]

Well, it looks like PB's the last of the werewolves, and ww was naive.

[ralphmerridew]

First, Uraj is lying. I believe that Uraj has one other scum buddy, and they only need one more lynch to get majority; if the town lynches me today, the mafia will win.

Look at Uraj's claims from a balance point of view. The village had two investigative roles (ww/Tally2 and Nanook), and at this point I think it's clear that ww was naive; that gives the village AT MOST ONE useful investigator of 2. The town had two definite investigators: MMCL and Wacky (role name cop); Wacky was almost certainly a useful investigator (such roles either get correct results or some fixed value, and he'd claimed late enough that he'd have realized if he were getting constant results), and such a role is fairly powerful; Uraj is also claiming to be a useful cop, which would give the town AT LEAST TWO useful investigators of three, with one being extra powerful.

[ralphmerridew]

Alright, looks like it is indeed that time.
I'm a cop. My choices (as well as those of my replacement/replacee) have been as follows:
Night 1: Investigate Talitha. No result
Night 2: Investigate Fishbulb. Guilty
Night 3: Investigate Peacebringer. Guilty
Night 4: Didn't get my choice in on time so it was invalidated.
Not very useful, unfortunately, except to indicate the village counterpart.

[ralphmerridew]

Also, if your access to scum breaks again, you can try using guardster.com (or possibly .net or .org) as a proxy (or some other proxy). (Shortly after Rival Turf started, I had to go through them for a few days.) If you're worried about your password, create a secondary account.

[ralphmerridew]

The usual interpretation of godfather immunity and the like is "any cop investigating you will get the same result he would get investigating a townie. And I have seen roles with completely useless clauses before.

I remember one mini where the GF was told he had investigation and nightkill immunity, even though there was only one family and no vig (done to keep the scum nervous).

In another mini there were two families; in one family it mattered who made the kill (one member was a sharpshooter who could kill despite certain protections; in the other family the GF was protected from certain attacks. There weren't any roleblockers or trackers, so it didn't matter who performed the kill in the latter family, but the mod had both families name somebody as killer.

And I was planning out a game at one point with a sane/naive investigator who was searching for a particular SK (who, as it happens, wasn't a role), and a doc who blocked drive-by shootings (even though nobody performed drive-bys).

There's also the fact that roleblocker and role-name cop can prove their abilities; while I don't claim that there's a 1-1 correspondence of useful town cops to useful village cops, I do claim that the village would have something fairly good to balance out a second useful cop, and I don't see it.

[ralphmerridew]

Something I find helpful in mafia is to look over each player, and imagine "What would X do if X were pro-town / anti-town?", then compare that to what they did do. When somebody acts consistent with town or inconsistent with mafia, it could go either way (scum do pretend to be town). When somebody acts consistent with mafia, it's a weak scum signal; when somebody acts inconsistent with town, it's a strong scum signal.

Basic assumptions that I think everyone will agree with:

1) Anyone pro-town will tell the truth, to the extent of his/her knowledge. Anti-town may tell the truth or lie as they choose.
2) The roles are fairly normal. (In particular, there are no random cops, no scum who appears pro-town when dead, no second pro-town character who appears guilty to investigation, and no second investigation-immune role in a scum family.)
3) There are at most two scum left (or the game would be over), and probably two scum, for balance / symmetry reasons.

i) MoS is definitely a mason. (Confirmed by the mod and Mgm)
ii) Uraj claimed to be an insane cop. (From post 1135: N2 Fishbulb guilty, N3 PB guilty; from today: N5 rm good)
Note: claimed investigation of Fishbulb was while Nanook was alive. Even if GF-immunity were passed on, Fishbulb wouldn't have it yet.
iii) Fishbulb and rm claimed townie.
iv) Talitha claimed nurse.
v) PeaceBringer was pro-town.

Now, assuming the scum are limited to Fishbulb, rm, Talitha, Uraj and there are at most 2 scum has possibilities:
Fishbulb (ruled out by ii)
rm
Talitha (ruled out by ii)
Uraj
Fishbulb & rm (ruled out by ii)
Fishbulb & Talitha (ruled out by ii)
Fishbulb & Uraj
rm & Talitha
rm & Uraj
Talitha & Uraj

or R U FU RT RU TU

What would a pro-town Fishbulb do in this situation?
Fishbulb culd rule out FU, leaving R, U, RT, RU, TU.
He wouldn't have any clear idea of who is scum.

What did Fishbulb do?
He has said that he's not sure who to vote for.

CONSISTENT


What would a pro-town rm do in this situation?
I can rule out cases R, RT, RU, leaving U, FU, TU. In any case, I can be sure that Uraj is scum, but I can't be sure who is scum with him.

What did I do?
I've said that Uraj is scum, and haven't expressed an opinion who else is scum.

CONSISTENT


What would a pro-town Talitha do in this situation?
She could rule out RT and TU, leaving R, U, FU, TU, and deduce that Uraj is almost certainly scum, and if he isn't, then rm is the last scum (meaning that the town could safely lynch Uraj and then lynch rm if Uraj isn't scum. She should therefore favor an Uraj lynch.

What did Talitha do?

Post 1222: Talitha asks for Uraj's previous results.
Post 1223: I repost 1135

Is there any chance there is only one scum left? Just looking at the setup, the Town town seems like it might be weaker than the Village town. Ie, only 2 masons over here, no sane cops, the vig was only a one-shot.

If there's only 1 left then I think it has to be Uraj or ralphm. I'm still weirded out by the fact that they're not voting, but maybe that's just me.
So if there's only 1 left, lynching one today, and the other tomorrow if the game is still going, should win it for the town.

If there's 2 left then that changes things considerably. Excluding any funny mason business, it's ralphm & Fishbulb, or Uraj & Fishbulb, or ralphm & uraj. I think ralphm & uraj is quite unlikely, but I'll kick myself later if this is some double bluff.

I don't really believe Uraj's cop claim. If we've got 2 scum left it seems too convenient that he got an innocent result today. So the Uraj/Fishbulb pair is looking most likely to me.

So taking into account both possibilities (one scum left or two) it looks to me like a Uraj vote is the best bet.

I'll be voting him shortly unless anyone wants to attempt to sway me, or point out something obvious that I've missed.

Ostensibly, she's favoring a vote for Uraj. But what does she do:
Paragraphs 1 and 2: She tries to support a single-scum hypothesis (the only possibility on my list where Uraj is pro-town, and the situation where the town is least careful about the lynch), and calls attention to the fact that Uraj and I aren't voting for each other (suggests RU).
Paragraph 3: She lists the cases, but includes FR, in spite of the fact that it's inconsistent with Uraj's results that SHE ASKED FOR on the previous page.

Within the area she has to argue, she does everything she can to suggest against an Uraj lynch (in particular, to push for an rm lynch).

SEMI-CONSISTENT



What would a pro-town Uraj do in this situation?
He could rule out U, FU, RU, TU, leaving R and RT. He could concluded that rm is scum, and that if there is another scum, it is Talitha.

What did Uraj do?

Alright, looks like it is indeed that time.
I'm a cop. My choices (as well as those of my replacement/replacee) have been as follows:
Night 1: Investigate Talitha. No result
Night 2: Investigate Fishbulb. Guilty
Night 3: Investigate Peacebringer. Guilty
Night 4: Didn't get my choice in on time so it was invalidated.
Not very useful, unfortunately, except to indicate the village counterpart.

Well I can tell you who the lest of the mafia is.
*points to ralphmerridew*
I got innocent on him, therefore he's guilty.
Not voting yet though. Want to hear a bit.

Uraj says rm is last mafia.

My primary reason for not voting at this point is because I still want discussion and I want to figure more out about the second scum that is probably lurking around somewhere. (snip)

Uraj says rm and somebody else is scum. (R, FR, or RT)

Why does Uraj need any more information to identify the other scum? If he's scum,

Cops who are unsure of their sanity remember their results.
Cops who are sure they are useful ABSOLUTELY remember their results.

INCONSISTENT.




After that, Talitha and Uraj are the most suspicious characters. Suppose they are scum, and consider their actions in that light.

What would Talitha do in that case? She'd have to know that an MoS lynch is out of the question, and a Fishbulb lynch today is unlikely. (I'd go for Uraj instead, and MoS probably wouldn't either.) The only viable alternative to an Uraj lynch today is an rm lynch, and she has done everything to keep that option open / leave holes in her argument for Uraj to poke at while not appearing to push for it.

CONSISTENT

What would Uraj do in that case? Lynching MoS is out of the question, and a Fishbulb lynch would be difficult (he'd have to claim paranoid). Pushing for an rm lynch by claiming an "insane innocent" result on me is best. He starts with "rm is lest (sic) scum" (town is not at lynch-or-lose). When that doesn't work, he moves to "rm and someone else", ignoring the fact that his results point to Talitha being said other scum.

CONSISTENT


Individually, Talitha and Uraj have acted inconsistent with the assumption of pro-town-ness. Considered together, their deviations have been aimed to protect each other. Talitha and Uraj are the last two scum.

Tally, Uraj, would you care to defend yourselves?

[ralphmerridew]

Uraj: Cop claims/investigations are probably the most unambiguous kind of information on living players the participants can get in a mafia game. Everyone can agree on exactly whether or not a set of role assignments is possible, given a set of claimed investigations. (Watch a dethwing or groza classic game to see how the town can assemble multiple levels of investigation.) The logic I gave above is about as simple as cop logic gets. (The only judgement call I used in the parts of what various players should be able to conclude are the general rules (which usually go without saying), and my suggestion that there are probably two scum left (which isn't essential to any other part of my argument).)

By contrast, balance is an intrinsicly fuzzy concept. The usefulness of various roles with respect to each other, which side the role distribution in a game favors, whether or not a particular setup can be made closer to even, are all debateable questions and subject to judgment. And not just "Is a game balanced?" but "Would the mod think this is balanced?" And inter-game balance is easily tipped. (For example, had Fishbulb been a regular werewolf and not an alpha, then it would be possible that PB was the alpha and ww was sane, or that the town had an additional useful cop to compensate for a godfather, or that the village had four scum, against the town three scum, one of whom is a GF.) Balance simply isn't precise enough to be able to surgically decide which of Talitha / Fishbulb was scum.

Talitha: You should be voting for Uraj. If you are pro-town, then either Uraj is scum, or rm is the only scum. (If you and Uraj are both good, then Fishbulb is good by Uraj's investigations, and MoS is good by masonhood.) Therefore, lynching Uraj today is a dominant strategy for a pro-town Talitha (either he is scum, or the town is certain to lynch last scum rm tomorrow).

[ralphmerridew]

My argument against Uraj and Talitha was that they overlooked a straightforward, purlely logical argument as to for whom Uraj / Talitha should vote, they both completely overlooked it, so they are probably scum.

Uraj countered that there was a fuzzy, balance based argument as to for whom ralphmerridew should vote, than he overlooked it and voted for somebody else, so ralphmerridew is probably scum.

Notice the difference between our two first steps. Overlooking a rigorous argument is a strong sign, while overlooking a fuzzy one is meaningless.

[ralphmerridew]

If MoS dies tonight, we lynch Talitha tomorrow. Otherwise, MoS decides who to lynch, and does not say so until tomorrow.

[ralphmerridew]

Vote: Uraj

[ralphmerridew]

w00t!

[ralphmerridew]

One thing that surprises me is how little effect the cops had on the game, especially considering how the dual-game gimmick made them more powerful than usual (they might be able to reveal results after being killed).

[ralphmerridew]

Assorted comments:

Right after village willows was killed, I IMed her, told her I was mason with Talitha and tss, and asked about her results. After hearing PB, Tally innocent, I did my best to delay the PB bandwagon until town day (oops). (thought I sent the IM logs to Norinel).

After Wacky's claim, I started to panic. Assuming matching distributions, then we had another cop, a nurse, three masons, and a roleblocker; we'd be hard pressed to get through those claims. Add to that the fact that Talitha was onto most of the other scum; up until the mass reveal, I was hoping just for the mafia to outlive the werewolves.

Village day 4:
I posted that I wanted to hear willows_weeps' results, and in the same post urged the town vig to kill in an attempt to get the vig to kill a non-scum. (This probably would have backfired; Coron would have wanted to shut her up.)

Town nights 4 and 5: Was feeling desperate. Decided to go for Wacky and PB, hoping that the nurse either hadn't been reading the village thread, or otherwise wasn't paying attention.

Town day 5:
For first time since Wacky's claim, I started to think we might be able to win.
Original plan: Remainder is Vig, RB, Nurse, Mason, Town, Maf, Maf. Go along with Fuldu's PB lynch, then try to get him lynched next day.
MGM revived, PB killed: Whoever replaces ww will probably get to claim last. When the nurse claims, press about why didn't he protect Wacky (claimed cop) night 4, or PB (blocker who caught Nanook) night 5. Hope ww's replacement is on the ball enough to see the opportunity and give the answers of "Didn't protect Wacky because I was protected the proven PB; didn't protect PB because ww was away and missed her choice." Try to get real nurse lynched as a result, ww gets lynched next day, and finally hope I can get Fuldu lynched the last day.
Uraj claims cop, and MoS says only two masons: with only 2 supported roles alive, and Talitha being believed, things are looking good.

Town night 6: I expect that tomorrow, whoever he investigates, Uraj will realize that Talitha & I must be the last two scum, and Tally & I will have to convince MoS the last two scum are FB/Uraj instead of us.


In addition to my above comments about how the cops proved less-than-useful, there's also the fact that several times, attacking a cop would have been a mistake (and I think was crucial to mafia win and wolf loss).