Cultafia: Game over

[the silent speaker]

Vote: blazerunner

for being second on the armlx wagon.

[the silent speaker]

Actually, I have a perfectly good reason for focusing on the armlx bandwagon rather than the mnowax one. And even if I didn't, I can only cast one vote, so you need to show a reason why armlx is

less

deserving of attention than mnowax. Blazerunner's and Occult's reaction to my vote, therefore, coupled with some of Blazerunner's other questionable comments since that Yos has already called him out on, firms my conviction that Blazerunner is someone who needs to die.

[the silent speaker]

I don't really get what the big deal is about what I said. I think Blazerunner is scum, thus I want to lynch him, thus I feel that best play for the town is to make him die.

I have seen nothing to make me want to change my vote, and mnowax's statement inclines me to keep it where it is.

[the silent speaker]

Armlx continues to confirm my opinion of him. Indeed, I was starting to wonder along similar lines to those I think he is wondering, but am content to hear out mnowax before doing anything drastic.

[the silent speaker]

It's unclear whether his evidence is just a tell from one of Blaze's posts, or is the result of role-based information possessed by mno.

Well, mnowax did say that if Blazerunner is town that he should die in Blaze's place. If all he had were tells, no matter how convincing, he wouldn't put himself in front of the firing squad like that, I don't think (whether he's town

or

scum[/i]).

What I have on Blazerunner, OTOH,

is

tells. I am very confident of them, and more so with mnowax's assertions of role information backed up by tells of his own, but nothing like a mod-revealed smoking gun. My tells are generic to scum. For my money Blaze could be SK or Cult Leader (taking mnowax into account rather more likely SK, but those aren't

my

tells).

[the silent speaker]

Armlx, I find it interesting that you say mnowax can't be the recruiter. I had been thinking that maybe he

was

the recruiter, and he tried and failed to recruit Blazerunner last night and that's the vague role info he was claiming. If he hits a sK, he looks like a genius; if he hits an opposing Cult Leader, his coast is clear; if he hits a steadfast, he'll need a lot of fast talking come Day 2 but at least he gets one steadfast role down. I fail to see what a plain recruit would know about Blazerunner; surely he wouldn't claim mystery information on his own recruiter. (After all, if he succeeds in getting him lynched, mnowax becomes strictly weaker than a vanilla SK.)

With mnowax's continuing recalcitrance -- and Blazerunner's points on how much a pro-town role would know about the SK's activities -- I'm uncomfortable enough with him to

unvote: Blazerunner

.

Blaze, it is not WIFOM because faking it is suboptimal play for both town and scum equally to make. It costs either side too much, against too little gain, to be volunteered when the alternative is simply not volunteering it. It can't

be

used for brownie points, not once established that he's got nothin', so it is not a case of WIFOM. And remember that I found you scummy regardless.

As for my 'single-mindedness' on Blazerunner, I sent out a probe and it struck gold. (I remain convinced of this.) What's there been for me to change

to

?

[the silent speaker]

You could say the same about yourself...

I'm not claiming info. I'm claiming suspicious reaction to light pressure.

Plus you seem to be distancing yourself from Mno all of a sudden. You went from trusting him pretty fully to now your uncomfortable with him.

Not only is this unfair as my supicions on Blaze predated mnowax's assertions of info, it is untrue as I expressed support of armlx when he cautioned

against

trusting mnowax fully.

And I thought you were upset that I was single-minded? Which am I, too dogged or too switchy?

TSS: I can't even explain how bad that play would be.

I never said I thought it was

good

play. Just that I can't imagine what a recruit would hope to gain at all.
[/quote]B) there's most likely more than 2 (SK+ other cult leader) steadfasts so its losing odds on hitting the SK [/quote]
You think so? I guess one townie and one mason. Even odds on good/evil, if not on SK/non-SK (but he might be gambling on the town celebrating too much over hitting a cult leader to lynch him, or something) and if it

is

a hit then he stands a good chane of driving Blazerunner into a panic.

and C) he is claiming it so poorly people wanted to lynch him.

No argument here, but that's after the fact.

Also of note: You still vote Blaze despite all the evidence of why he's not a good lynch.

Look again.

[the silent speaker]

Our lynch is Occult.

I'm also just curious at the sudden drop off in interest to lynch him. I personally am finding it a bit ridiculous. He pulls a gambit and we seem to be letting it work. Before he claims, he is the perfect lynch to a good portion of the players:

Guardian wrote:
Blazerunner [6] (the silent speaker, Greggo, armlx, mnowax, malthusis, vikingfan)

and now after he says, "well you got me, I'm in the cult." everyone suddenly drops their vote?

I don't see one single unvote after he claimed. All the unvoting was before. The only shift is that now that Blaze is an acknowledged recruit, Occult has voted him -- when recruits are exactly what we don't want to spend our time lynching. (Yes, Blaze *could* be a Cult Leader, but Occult gives no reason for him to be more likely to be one than anyone else. In fact, Occult himself says that recruit is by far the more likely: "I personally think there is a

slight possibility

that he could be more then a recruit.")

Blatant falsehood and an action long shown to be not in alignment with the best interests of the town. Ergo, Occult is trying to drop his now useless asset like a hot potato.

Vote: Occult

[the silent speaker]

Another thing to consider is that sometimes lurkers need to be lynchedsimply to weed out deadwood that is preventing the active fraction of the town from having a lynch quorum without resorting to lurkers (who aren't voting anyone) or scum (who aren't voting their own). But generally I agree with Yosarian.

I am a vig, and if blaze was pulling a gambit as a leader, then he get s lynched tomorrow, because he wont die tonight if i vig him.

We have only your word for it that you're a vig. If you're not, you won't vig him, and he won't die regardless of whether or not he should be lynched.

I am not stupid, ya know. I do know what i am doing

I tend to disagree.

[the silent speaker]

More lynching of Occult please.

[the silent speaker]

I don't really care, either, as no matter what his alignment is he's likely to be dead tonight after that claim; if he's a vig, the SK will likely kill him, if he's not, the vig will likely kill him.

Er, no, Yos, if he's SK or Leader he's got a nightkill immunity and will live to tomorrow.

Of course lynching cult leader is best, but lynching recruit is not so bad if there isn't a better alternative.

There is always a better alternative: best guess for cult leader.

[the silent speaker]

But but but... if I vote for Springlullaby then I'm not voting for Occult! But then voting for Occult keeps my vote away from Springlullaby... ARGH!

[the silent speaker]

Furthermore, you list the many people who are cult, but forgetting the fact that so far, only one recruitment can possible have been made.

With two cult leaders, two recruits can have been made, plus two cult leaders makes four. And "cults stick together" obviously meant "...against the town, even though they're not allied with each other."

FOS: Vikingfan

[the silent speaker]

VF: I read his comment as clearly expressing frustration that more people than could be allied with each other seemed to be mutually linked, and throwing out a hypothesis to explain it away: multiple cults sticking together.

[the silent speaker]

I tend to think that the most likely explination is that Armlx agrees with me on some stuff because I'm making sense, because you're not, and because you just look scummy, which is the same reason that lots of other people seem to agree with me on the same things.

Count me as one of them. In fact, count me as one agreeing spcifically with both armlx and Yos by name.

I would switch my vote, but it would be insta-lynch, so I'll hold off until spring has responded.

[the silent speaker]

Hjallti, I have seen nothing to change my opinion of yesterday, so yes.

Mnowax's play has been so completely erratic that his alignment is completely a crapshoot, but I wonder if the fact that he hasn't been modkilled for making a threat that would if carried out get him banned indicates that he has a role that in fact cannot be recruited.

A happy Passover to one and all.

[the silent speaker]

Can we get a modprod on Occult, please?

[the silent speaker]

Skruffs, why is it owed to you to "work with the crap case to put pressure on Hjallti"? Why is he more worthy of being pressured than, say, Occult? Especially since, and here's the point you're missing, from the standpoint of any third party the fact that crap cases are being made against Hjallti in the first place may suggest that scum wants him dead. Now I don't think this is a strong point against in this game -- for one thing, more unrecruitables are scum themselves than town, and there's not that much reason to want people gone for their rasoning at this point in this game if they aren't unrecruitable -- but armlx isn't completely wrong.

My main suspect from yesterday was Occult, and I still think that is a fruitful line, For the other? Idunno. I'll need to separate vikingfan and vollkan in my head to better sort out what each one said yesterday (I'm sure I suspected viking, who is now dead town, but I may have been wary of vollkan out of misattribution). But vollkan is right about the 'conspiracy theory' objection.

[the silent speaker]

Skruffs: it was based on his sudden shift to BlazeRunner after Blaze claimed recruit, which I felt at the tim was done in a paramountly scummy way. (It is somewhat less so now that we know Blaze wasn't Occult's recruit, but still very bad IMO.)

[the silent speaker]

But I think it's incredibly scummy for someone to focus on players putting out fake cases, demanding more from them *And not offering cases of their own* - they put themselves in a position of zero risk by trying to get other players to do their dirty work

I don't know that I would say "incredibly scummy," but fair point; it is much easier to destroy than to create. Still, putting out deliberately fake cases seems like it wll only sow the town confusion in the long run.

[the silent speaker]

I was convinced that armlx was town yesterday, but have been getting worrisome vibes from him recently, particularly the post where he says that mypenguinkat's posts reveal that he (later Hjallti and now springlullaby) is town. Given penguin's actual amount of posting, this seems... troublesome, to say the least.

[the silent speaker]

... Kat's posts were consistent with practically anything. He hardly posted.

[the silent speaker]

No, we are not. If a cult leader killed, someone would be found with a brain omelet. All we've seen so far are lead sandwiches.

Mnowax is playing like an idiot, but I don't think he's the right lynch until we have some more people identified. We'll never be able to identify him based solely on himself, because if he doesn't know what he's doing himself, how can

we

infer it?

[the silent speaker]

Guh. Sorry sorry. Will reread and post content soon.

[the silent speaker]

Only that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, since Blaze said he would roleblock him. Not that I have a better explanation other than "mnowax is nuts".

[the silent speaker]

vollkan, the problem with that thinking is that he QED

was

that careless, as whatever he may be.

[the silent speaker]

Vote: mnowax

I have reservations about this, since I agree with Nab that insanity

per se

is a null tell. But Beep inherited the role I thought was most likely scum yesterday, and with him

and mnowax

and

Yosarian on the same bandwagon, I think that's a bandwago to avoid. (I don't have anything much against Yos except the minute chance that mnowax is somehow in positive IQ territory, but if he and Yos are agreeing on the lynch when mnowax is sure that Yos is scum, I think better to stay away.)

If he's a non-recruited vig, why destroy a power role?
If he's a recruit, why 'waste' a lynch on him; for every recruit that is killed, there is possibly two more being made the next night..
If he's SK, why get rid of a Known anti-town role that can't be recruited and thus has to try to help town kill cult recruiters.
And if he's a cult recruitor, the SKs and cult recruitors BOTH want to kill him, he is an emergent threat specifically against the both of those other factions, as well as town, so it is likely that one of them are going to bite the bullet nad aim for him tonight.

That last line only works if the cult recruiter(s) know he's a recruiter himself. If they don't know that, they aren't forced to aim for him to destroy the "emergent threat specifically against" them, and so there is no such certainty as you imply.

[the silent speaker]

EBWOP: Also, like the man said, a bad choice is better than no choice at all, which also factors into my casting a stone here.

[the silent speaker]

Exactly, that's the point. Skruffs is saying that he had doubts about CKD being a mason.

[the silent speaker]

... That said, the mason wagon is a good place to look for recruiters, since they can get him dead with a lynch without having to spend two recruits (one that doesn't work if CKD is steadfast as he claimed, and one to kill him instead of recruiting someone). Conveniently, one of the wagoners is Beep, my hitherto best bet.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

[the silent speaker]

There is no question now, SL was steadfast and CKD wasn't.

This is true, but the recruiters wouldn't have known that at the time.

[the silent speaker]

I didn't see anywhere aioqwe claimed recruit seriously (posts 873-4 looked pretty obviously sarcastic to me, naming as he did all the people accusing him) but well said, Skruffs. If aioqwe turns up cult armlx should probably be next. I have a hunch Yos might be allied with Beep, also, which gives me a theory to guide a reread with; I will want to see whether that holds up, and if it does, who to round out the cults with. We could be close to a breakthrough here.

[the silent speaker]

... I was all set to propound a theory that Beep and Yos had as a third partner Vollkan, and then Beep posted one of the most absurd reasons to vote in a long time. I suspect he may be trying to deflect the aioqwe wagon with that vote, which makes my suspicion of aioqwe go way up too. But boy am I glad of where my vote already is.

[the silent speaker]

Sly, I'll freely admit that I have nothing on Yos but hunch, which is why I have mentioned it exactly twice (and even if I'm right I figure him for recruit rather than recruiter). But why do you say my suspicions of Beep are unfounded? Remarkable certain you sounded about it, too.

[the silent speaker]

So first we have to decide if aio actually is cult who got spooked by insta-pressure or townie who got caught theorizing. One thing is certain, he's not standing up there and saying "I'm a recruit, don't lynch me" (which is what some people are basically boiling it down to)

QFT.

[the silent speaker]

You assume, Yos, that Armlx isn't trying to derail a bandwagon on

his

recruit. I could see that just as easily.

I will probably vote aioqwe once I see another votecount. Beep is still a cult leader though, IMO.

[the silent speaker]

I think Vollkan's death suggests that I am right about Beep. I think Aioqwe's death suggests that armlx is the other cult recruiter.

If both of those are correct, then Skruffs is not likely to be a recruiter. He could, of course, still be recruit or SK, but I note that mnowax has yet to kill anyone, and night 2 he jumped to the conclusion that Yos was scum

even though he was roleblocked in-thread.

I do not like assuming my co-players are morons.

So here's my theory. Mnowax was recruited N1 or so by that fuchsia-king armlx; this explains why he was allowed to threaten to betray any cult that came a-calling -- because no cult could successfully recruit him thereafter. Yos was probably recruited by the ceruler the same night, if he's not unrecruitable altogether himself. I mention Yos here because N2, armlx tries to recruit Yos, fails, infers badguy; next day his henchman tries to drum up some enmity against Yos to get rid of a thorn in his leader's side while keeping armlx some deniability. N3, armlx recruits aioqwe. And thus to last night, when Armlx tried to target Skruffs and failed, and mnowax claimed the targeting himself on armlx's behalf again.

With that theory, everything snaps together in a neat little box.

Vote: armlx

.

[the silent speaker]

The reason I had armlx pegged for a specific cult was who he was associating with and who appeared to be protecting him. By then we already knew what aioqwe was, so I placed armlx's group by matching it with him.

I actually did label a potential recruiter for vollkan, so your claim that I was "only focusing on aioqwe" is bogus. It is even more bogus becuase we now know the answer to the question of who recruited vollkan:

aioqwe (Replacing malthusis) (Fuschia Cultist, previously Townie) - lynched Day 3
vollkan (Replacing Ration) (Cerulean Cultist, previously Vigilante) - shot Night 4
<snip>
armlx (Cerulean Cult Leader) - lynched Day 5

Vote: Skruffs

and your friendly serial killer says you're welcome.

[the silent speaker]

Yes. I suspect armlx tried to recruit me early on, based on an attitude shift toward me. That's one reason I shifted my attitude toward

him

.

Mnowax was roleblocked the night he says he tried to target you; the real vig targetted Blazerunner. (Not to say that Mnowax isn't necessarily a real vig, but he tried to fire night two, and was rbed, so his kill didn't go through regardless)

You seem remarkably sure that mnowax isn't cult. He hasn't killed yet, you know. Cult!mnowax explains that very nicely. But you don't want attention drawn to your recruit, do you?

[the silent speaker]

A very clever frame-up, Skruffs, but you missed only one itsy point.

There are two vigs.

Mnowax could have killed n1 and vollkan n2. My target was Occult that night, and it failed.

[the silent speaker]

EBWOP: Yos, unvote now before it's too late.
(Also, "that night" in the above means n1, obv.)

[the silent speaker]

which assumes that first of all, there are two vigs (when there have only been one of every other role)

Skruffs, vollkan was exposed as an ex-vig on death. Either there are two vigs or mnowax is lying. Give me one halfway plausible reason for mnowax to claim vig day 1 as a fake.
As for the bolded part wher mnowax claimed not to have shot yet, he hasn't told the truth about any other targetings, why should n1 be any different?

If you thought Beep was the CL, why didn't you shoot at her?

Because armlx came up the

wrong

CL for my theory. That caused me to rethink a few things, just in time as it turns out.

[the silent speaker]

Yos, please please unvote me. My account of events makes sense: n1 armlx targets you, fails, mnowax shoots DGB, I target Occult, fail, Blazerunner blocks me; d1 mnowax claims vig, I start gunning (in-thread) for Occult; n2 armlx recruits the newly claimed vig, I shoot the newly claimed blocker, mnowax can't shoot, vollkan targets scummiest remaining player in vikingfan; d2 newly recruited mnowax claims to have targeted and failed the person his leader couldn't recruit, hoping to get a threat lynched (this is why I infer that an attempted recruit of you failed); n3 armlx targets vollkan, who can't shoot because he shot last night, and mnowax lost his gun on recruitment; n4 armlx tries to recruit Skruffs, fails; d4 mnowax goes after his cult leader's failed recruit hoping to get a threat lynched.

My way, everything fits together. It even answers armlx's objection of yesterday about mnowax being an unlikely n1 recruitment target, since you are definitely a likely one. Skruffs's way makes no sense.

[the silent speaker]

mnowax, I've claimed serial killer. Lynch=lose for me either way.

[the silent speaker]

mnowax hadn't performed a kill he had copped to. I spoke shorthand.

Can you explain why you would have intentionally shot a town rber?

Hello? Anti-town? Already been blocked once?

And are you saying that you, by your own story the sk,

didn't

shoot the blocker? That the

vig

shot the

claimed pro-town roleblocker

? That vollkan shot the claimed pro-town roleblocker

who another vig had pledged to shoot already

? Yeah, that makes a whole lot more sense.

[the silent speaker]

I saw ... springlullaby and vollkan as very possible cultists

Yes, so did I. Only I didn't say much about them, because I planned to SHOOT THEM.

Yosarian, Skruffs's recruit is probably Beep (elimination, since I think mnowax is Armlx's and I think you are unrecruitable per armlx's attempt). You can't possibly read the crap he's spewing in posts like his last one and believe it. Please unvote me before Beep comes back and Skruffs wins the game. Seriously, "mnowax never was a vig, and he claimed vig to try and out the real vig"? That's Skruffs's best guess? Ridiculous.

[the silent speaker]

Elimination, Yos. I think Armlx tried to recruit you and failed N1; I think Skruffs is the other cult recruiter; if armlx couldn't recruit you, Skruffs wouldn't be able to; I know you're not the serial killer. Ergo, yes, I am pretty sure you are town.

It occurred to me typing this that you could have been alarmist-protected N1, but that only makes Beep town and I can address all pleas that way. (If you both were cult, the game would be over.) But see below.

Who did Skruffs target? Me, once, probably. That could have been a tipoff for him that it was 'safe' to vote me today. If I had to pick which target would be more attractive but to recruiters in order to* have him fail them all, it would be Yos over Beep, which suggests that Yos over Beep is the steadfast townie (we haven't seen one of those yet). That's two misses. Beep (since I'm tentatively pegging Yos as steadfast, based on apparently failed recruitment of him specifically once and more likely to have been targeted twice) and aioqwe for successes. Five would have to be Nab, since he explodeded.

Skruffs, Sly is not a recruit for both me and armlx. Fail harder.

*- The mod didn't pick steadfasts

in order to

thwart the recruiters, obv, but I'm reverse engineering the choices and we know there must have been two failures.

[the silent speaker]

EBWOP: It makes no difference to me whether you're pulling some cunning ploy or not, Yosarian; I can't very well expect Skruffs to change his vote, and I have mnowax labeled as cult too, so you're my best hope of not getting quicklynched when Beep gets back.

[the silent speaker]

You think Skruffs and Mnowax are cult together?

No, I think Skruffs and mnowax are cult oppositely.

Skruffs, I eliminated Sly as a recruit because I already fill out both cults' rosters without him.

...

I hadn't noticed that Sly claimed mnowax non-cult n5. Sly, that doesn't make any sense from any standpoint. Explain.

[the silent speaker]

If Mnowax was in the other cult, then one would think he would be especally interested in getting rid of the other cult leader.

Maybe, but he would be at least a little more disinclined than you to help me. Also, he might feel that to preserve his cover he has to officially disbelieve me.

when do you think mnowax was recruited?

Early on, most probably right after claiming. He knew Skruffs was unnkable (or at any rate he educatedly guessed) because he knew that his leader had failed to recruit him. Remember that that guess came yhesterday, when armlx was still alive.

[the silent speaker]

It's on the first page of the thread, except for the names I've already given.

[the silent speaker]

There is nobody in the game that he could have shot who would not have died

after Mnowax shot me

,

See, I don't believe mnowax

did

shoot you. I believe mnowax went after youy because armlx failed to recruit you. And no, I don't have an explanation for Sly's claim, and have already asked him to explain it.

[the silent speaker]

EBWOP: What Yosarian said about me coming up innocent, but thaat is obvious to people who aren't trying to get me lynched so they can win the game. It is specifically Sly's claimed investigate of mnowax that I want an explanation for.

[the silent speaker]

I don't really know what else to say. I've laid out a plausible roster for Skruffs to have targeted; if you don't believe me, you don't. No one yet has presented a roster for me to recruit. I still don't think you are scum. Possibly Skruffs could have gone after mnowax once and failed instead of getting a hit on beep or whoever -- that would be consistent with him saying how mnowax "would be the logical target last night" -- and with three failures, he

could

be a bare cult leader. But the bottom line is I know he is one, bare or not, and I have to hope you can be convinced before beep comes back. I expect mnowax to be reluctant to give his own cultosity away by joining me even though he needs Skruffs dead, so I'm focusing my hopes on you. If you say no, what's left for me to say?

Also waiting on Sly. I want my answers from him. I don't see how mnowax can be plausibly not cult at this time.

[the silent speaker]

I implore you. Don't do this. It's the last mistake you'll make.

[the silent speaker]

I didn't target you, Nab. I can only assume armlx thought you were unrecruitable for some reason. That was the night I recruited Sly.

I actually targeted Yosarian twice -- once n1, when I was blocked, and once n5. When I think that virtually any other choice I could have made that night would have led to me winning...