Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

[Iconeum]

if it's not lylo anymore im not even gonna try to fight my lynch

im past the point of trying to obv town my slot any more than ive already tried

my flip should GUILTY cephrir

[pb, Mena, Ico, cephrir] solve

If I’m wrong on one it could be Maria

I have a hard time believing her town read on cephrir

why aren't you pushing mena for his reads like yesterday? giving up because we have a mislynch and you might be lynched now seems weaksauce

[Iconeum]

@ what's left of Pine's scumteam: I can feel you circling around me, looking at me like i'm a mislynch. Let me tell you right here and now that's not gonna happen

[Iconeum]

what if we let him boycott a lynch today

what if we just don't bargain with him, and especially not for a fruit from which he previously said is scared to give out

and is now giving out

from which we do not know the drawback

[Iconeum]

Ico / i'm a town dragon
Dunn / mason confirmed town
SS / mech conf town
Wooper / pretty much mech conf town
PB / My top townread - if there's popular demand i can case this
Dann / i don't think the Dann v Krazy battles were S/S. It got heated way too much for that, ending up in Krazy leaving. I know Krazy a little, he wouldn't tactically replace out to 'fake' this. Probably.
Ceyphir / replacement for Krazy. Same story, and I think Ceyphir has only added to my townread since his replace in. Scumreads me, but of all players scumreading me, I feel Ceyphir actually came to this conclusion instead of

wanting

to scumread me

Maria / I don't know. Doc? Fake claim doc? I suppose fake claimed doc because the tracker said going nowhere. If Maria is actually a doc then...
GE / Has to be scum, don't know who else could be scum unless i'm really wrong with my townreads. However, if Fire flips scum I think this is most likely town.
Menalque / more PoE then anything else, tho I don't like how he's been interacting with Pine to get the Informed Fruit.
Fire / His push against me today screamed 'I think Ico is a more realistic lynch then GE'.

[Iconeum]

Spoiler:

Penguin and Ico are probably both scum lynched as well

Scum are probably:
Gamma
Iconeum
Penguinpower
MariaR
The worst

And either mena or dannyboi
And I am leaning on mena but only because I love dannyboi

so btw since there are only 5 scum left i am revising this to:

gamma
iconeum
penguinpower
mariar
mena

How good am i!?!

We're lynching in PB/dann or at least I am. I guess I'd vote fire too but only those 3

we are lynching iconeum, u frickin noob

VOTE: Iconeum

how is iconeum not in ur poe?

ICONEUM MENTIONS PENGUINPOWER, ONE TIME IN HIS ENTIRE ISO!

Wait, did iconeum call that out? I should go look at that. Town!iconeum def would have called that out and if he didn't that just confirms to me this is scum!icon

honestly he probably points it out if it IS theater.

shut the fuck up. Iconeum calls that out if he is town.

So alisae ur telling me u think Iconeum, sees a player scumread him. And by all accounts penguinpower is just drifting in the game not doing much, and just ignores that completely and puts him in "I see nothing scummy from this". That is what you think town!iconeum does?

This is the story we go with?

Like, I think that after PP's lynch, the scumteam is ready to buss FB and FB is ready to throw us some curves before dying. Ico is that curve, I don't remember FB talking about Ico until now.

Ico has been in my lynch pool since day 2

i am thinking of doing icon next because he has the fewest posts and i saw one post of his during dann iso that i didn't like

I also made a case for how penguin and ico make sense as a team.

what, because they both lurked?

i may be interested in reading this but not before i do any isoing i'm going to do

No, ico gave penguin a townread while penguin pushed ico. It’s just not in line with ico not to push back against that as town unless they are teamed and doing some shitty bussing

Most of this is shading over actual scumreading.
He made is scumlist of
gamma
iconeum
penguinpower
mariar
mena

and now has to push whoever he thinks is more likely to get lynched today

the only posts that hold substance is how he thinks i should react to the scumread PP had on me
which is WIFOM to begin with

[Iconeum]

So you think Fire/GE aren't w/w - GE town before Fire I'm guessing?

Could you case as many of {dann, ceph, GE} for me as you have time for? I've been swinging away from the holistic solve for a good year now but if Ali's and Dunn's most compelling cases are correct your PoE is

Maria - Ali meta clear
Mena - Dunn meta clear
Fire - not w/w with GE
GE - not w/w with Fire

which makes me think you're townreading roughly 2-3 scum

I think Fire had to choose between Ico/GE as best options for lynch today, thus yeah I think GE is town if fire flips scum. They are not S/S.
I know I might be wrong in Dann/Krazy battle, and I haven't forgotten your thoughts about Krazy's ill minded push. I just didn't read it like that

[Iconeum]

I believe in your towngame so much dude
I watched you turn SC:LotV from a stomp into a town win
like you picked the game losing mislynch, turned their frown upside down, and lead the town into an hilarious win when an unkillable scum stump had basically wrecked town WIM

you're wrong here and I think you know that readpost you just dropped down isn't up to scratch. I think town gaining a day has probably fucked scum WIM pretty hard. I expect Pine is scrambling for a clutch play to turn the gamestate back around. You coasting through with a crap solve and hoping we lynch into a PoE which clearly has 1+ town in it clearly fits better with a scum agenda than a town agenda.

If you're town this is the time to flip it around so you can claim endgaming TWO unkillable scum stumps


pedit: note I explicitly didn't ask you for a fireb read - I'm not interested in a fireb read, I know his d6 has been shite

It was a hilarious win and I had a lot more influence and correct reads that game then average. But I just don't feel it, here.
You consider it a crap solve, that's fine. But I strongly feel like we can't get this town straight with a full solve, and need babysteps. 1 day at a time, who is the best lynch, let Ali work his magic, repeat.

[Iconeum]

ok so we had Dann pushing Krazy

a major part of the push was that Town!Krazy would be pushing own cases and reads a lot more
During the 1v1, I could see Krazy getting into the game and started actually doing this. There were also a couple posts I clearly remember that reallly felt like town because I could relate to them

10997
10833

From 11329 he starts walling v Dann, and I don't see how you scumread that. Even worse, I actually don't understand how Dann didn't revaluate after Krazy did 'was expected'. Sure, scum could fake that I suppose, but I feel that comes more from a town defensive reaction.

11351 is another good post from Krazy, where he questions the timing of GE's callout.
11352 is the exact feeling I'd have in his position as town

11364 is a good summary of the feelings actually

After this, stuff got heated and I can see a town!Krazy melting down when he's finally invested and efforting, to no avail. Scum can easily vent in the scumPT and probably get calmed down by the team. I don't really wanna go there but: I don't think he would replace out as scum.

[Iconeum]

Wooper, if there are specific items you wanna go over wrt Krazy, throw it at me.

[Iconeum]

Ceyphir only added to my townread on Krazy slot, coming into this game with an open mind and I feel he would have been more informed? by the scumteam about his slot and gamestate then he was.

11599 is the beginning of his focus on gamma, who seemed adamant on convincing Ceyphir he is scum
11641 presses the issue that GE seems adamant on convincing Ceyphir his slot is confirmed scum and that he should just lay down. Or at least that's the feeling.

After a lot of pressure, Ceyphir does towncase his own slot which I didn't really catch anything out of (11739).

His tone throughout his ISO is chill, much more then what I would expect from scum. GE for instance is a lot more twitchy now that scum need mislynches and the PoE is getting smaller. FB is also working a lot more towards this, I feel.

This dude has also been actively sorting, went through the LLD ordeal, yeah I townread it and definitely don't wanna lynch here today

[Iconeum]

I think both of their play makes sense as scum trying to lynch Krazy. Krazy's slot has been up for lynch for as long as I can remember, and now that scum *need* that lynch, Ceyphir drops in and towns it up a lot. That forced Gamma to take a more direct approach, and is a result of Dann's pushing without willingness to reconsider.

[Iconeum]

I know it doesn't really add up to my readlist that I posted just now, but I can see a scum strategy that was focused on getting me or GE lynched today. It makes so much sense that scum are becoming bolder in their pushes because they actually need to push their lynches now instead of playing a reactionary game.

[Iconeum]

i don't believe in meta-cleared tho

[Iconeum]

Dann shouldn't have been on that spot to begin with, and you already pointed out there's mistakes in there. I put him there on the wrong assumption that I strongly feel Krazy is town, and that doesn't make Dann town. On the contrary.

It might come across as using the same read, but it comes down to what I see the scumteam trying to do now: push the mislynches they want. That feeling I get from Dann's push (and continuation of it) on Krazy, and Gamma's focus on Ceyphir (trying to force the slot to scumread itself)

I realllly wish I could provide you with Iconeum*TM* reads, but I just don't have those. The game has been brought down to manageable levels, and I'm trying to help here, and I'm sharing my honest thoughts, but Fire wasn't wrong when he said I was still 'catching up to the game'.

[Iconeum]

My main motivation right now isn't to lead this town to victory, like I did in the game you referenced, but at least make sure I'm not mislynched if at all avoidable and take away any doubts the town leaders have about me. You'll just have to take it :s

[Iconeum]

i'm keen to see why you think mena is scum in particular

I... don't really have a scumread on Menal...

[Iconeum]

I don't really recall any particular towny or scummy stuff about him, other then his D6 interactions with Pine that feel over the top

[Iconeum]

wooper you go and bring the worst in here - he can actually read me

casually hopping over what you think is scummy is a meh argument, I clearly gave you my thoughts behind the townread of what I think is important (Krazy). I asked you to present me the bits you wanna discuss if you feel the way you do.

Again, me 'hopping over' what has you worried is me not reading what you are reading there

[Iconeum]

At least I'm glad you are also seeing town there and that ur not adamant on him being scum

[Iconeum]

why are we not doing Cephrir?

i think he's town

[Iconeum]

also you're sticking to this despite admitting that you don't SR me

if your SRs are wrong (and I know they are) that means that you also have a mistake somewhere in your TRs

if you don't actually see me as scum then why don't you reconsider your TRs and decide who the more likely scum is out of dann/ceph

i've already said as much earlier to the wooper

also, between Dann and ceph, dann came out a lot uglier then Krazy. I've went through this already.

My prefered lynch today is in FB/Dann

[Iconeum]

I'm fine with lynching dann

I think we should ignore the fruit

why not iconeum or me?

it's ok fire just bus me

u wish we were on the same scum team

we weren't supposed to give away that this game was multi ball yet

Ali said I haven't even seen scum theater yet

I think I just did now

[Iconeum]

Wait Ali, you said that if Dann flips scum, Ico would be clear?? It wouldn't work the other way around? Let's lynch Ico then

You seem afraid of 'having me cleared'

[Iconeum]

> eternally locked out of game and playing catchup> no reason to be apathetic given the recent scum lynch, but is playing as though he is.> interactions with players don't make sense in a general kind of way of solving.> he could be playing to the crowd, I see that in general ways like just this page he is agreeing with alisae on 'scum theatre' when that isn't even scum theatre. > and yeah heavy on the never mentioning engaging with penguin except to call him town, and nothing when he got voted by penguin. With a iso as empty as penguin, if I was iconeum, I would be heavy looking into that and iconeum been very reactionary with my vote. So that's a huge red flag.

i'm not locked out of the game
i'm not playing catchup (anymore)
how am i agreeing to Ali wrt scum theatre here?
pretty sure there's a bunch of players that I have only referenced a couple times or probably even not at all lol

[Iconeum]

Maybe you should compromise and lynch no one.

VOTE: Dann

[Iconeum]

Or actually (dann, ceph, fb, Gamma, Pb) having all the remaining scum

Take ceph and gamma out, add maria. That's probably the closest I have to a solve right now.

[Iconeum]

i don't really have a scumread there but it makes a lot more sense in my PoE

[Iconeum]

i'm fairly adamant in my cephir townread and I don't think Fire/Gamma are scum/scum based on Fire's play

[Iconeum]

I think I saw a number of, well, not desperate but close to, pushes that feel like scum actively trying to get their mislynches they need. They need them more now that Ali fucked them over, and I think they were getting cosy in their seat and got shaken into action.

I think Fire specifically was doing this.

[Iconeum]

i'm fine with either

VOTE: firebringer

[Iconeum]

Ali, you think Menal is town after his D6 play around that Pine deal?

[Iconeum]

Icon's take on Menalque as Pine's deepwolf

It all starts with a Pine bargain, and a push on FB:

Spoiler:

talk to me about fire tho?

What do you think of fb?

Ali you know how fire is also scum
Could we get a joint endorsement maybe?

Do u wanna vote urself then fire

Nobody in game was opposed to this lynch IIRC, so it's pretty safe.
However, the interesting part comes next

UNVOTE:

Menal comes clean about the deal and unvotes FB.

Ali, I did a thing

Explanations yada yada

I think the most worrying thing is that there was obviously no way for pine to stop me outing this even if I did really go for the deal once it got to twilight, which means obviously the most glaring implications need to be taken with a HUGE pinch of salt (namely, dann!scum and fb!town -- if you ask me dann probably is still scum, but I think it may not clear fb necessarily).

But in terms of movements: gamma actually comes out of this okay, I think. He doesn't seem to be that interested. I think it's worrying for icon's vote on fb, and I think, actually, the main concern for me is ducky. I don't think it's at all beyond pine to decide to NK last night in the hopes that the "conf!town" lands on one of the scum, especially if he already thought that ducky had a meaningful chance of being the save. I'm not sure about this, but I do think ducky needs to explain his movement towards fb in solid detail.

This post shades both Wooper and me wrt our voting on FB. Why? Because at this point scum know they can probably get a mislynch on FB, but need another one tomorrow (today). I'm 100% certain in the scum shortlist, but I think scum make this play to open up a possible lynch on Wooper through WIFOM. Menal uses his deepwolf status to do this.

fine w any of {Fireb, Dann, Ico}
think dann is vaguely better for gamestate analysis

think fireb removes a serious threat from the game who has been basically refusing to be readable up to & including xylo and has only started playing urgently now

don't think ico is likely to play harder or become more readable

I just realised fireb is the best lynch today LOL

this post worries me a lot tbh

More shading on Wooper

I agree Wooper is unlikely. But I'd still like him to elaborate more on what it was that made him shift his opinion to fb being the best lynch and how much of that was my case and why. I don't think he should be lynched until lylo, and probably not at all. But if he is in lylo, then I think it's something that needs to be considered as possible.

And now hedging his read on Wooper: 'He's unlikely scum, and he shouldn't be lynched. At least not until LYLO. Like, not lynch at all. Except in LYLO. Maybe'. This is an entire lategame minded post designed to explain his LYLO vote on Wooper.

VOTE: fb

Ends up voting FB anyway, after discrediting both myself and Wooper for switching votes there. You don't do this if you were baiting others into following him onto FB.

-----

I think scum are stuck in a PoE, despite having odds in their favour at this time. Menal is setting up the scum late game by this entire sequence, already justifying a LYLO vote on Wooper without actually going into a scumread at this time.

And also, if Pine offers you a bargain like this, you know something's up. Him coming clean can be town, but you don't end up voting on FB anyway in the end then.

[Iconeum]

ok but he's town

VOTE: https://media.tenor.com/images/0e05a372 ... /tenor.gif

[Iconeum]

[Iconeum]

Like, we can solve this. Scum got a head start on us in the early days which I think is normal for a game this size but we gonna PoE them down now.
For visual aid:

[Iconeum]

if he's suggesting I'm scum you have to accept that I pocketed Ali ridiculously well and then Pine voluntarily stepped out of XyLo

this is a good point

[Iconeum]

Incredibly low effort actual footage of me winning this game:

[Iconeum]

I stopped dying when I read this game

lies