Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Something_Smart]

Damn.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, you probably won't be topping the Pine lynch from G&R II.

[Something_Smart]

Yes I got the pun, it just wasn't funny

[Something_Smart]

Guess you didn't look at the first two runs of this setup then?

There may come a day when town doesn't massively favor one option over the other. But it is not this day.

[Something_Smart]

Wow I wasn’t expecting to have already been betrayed twice 14 fucking posts into the game

You've taught me to lie without a trace
And to kill with no remorse
On the outside I'm the greatest guy...
Now I'm DEAD INSIDE.

Hi Aaron

[Something_Smart]

I saw G&R2, where there were only 2 roses. So why would I now expect only 2 guns?

Overcompensation!

Or something like that. G&R I had only one gun.

[Something_Smart]

Who won in G&R1?

Town did.

It was a smaller game (9:2), but the mechanics were all the same.

[Something_Smart]

Feels like just yesterday I was in a fakegod game. Odd

[Something_Smart]

but I feel we’re about to be on different sides of the shift.

Different sides of the what now?

[Something_Smart]

Claiming rose is not nearly as spicy when there are nine roses as it was when there was one...

[Something_Smart]

I think I get it?

Who knows with you, though.

[Something_Smart]

Whatcha thinking?

Salamence was in the FG game that just finished, lol.

[Something_Smart]

What alignment was he there?

Town.

[Something_Smart]

Who was he? I cbf to trawl through the endgame

Gentleman 5.

[Something_Smart]

Forgot to randomize it?

[Something_Smart]

I wonder if S_S randed scum again

I did not.

[Something_Smart]

Save it for postgame please.

[Something_Smart]

the whole point is that scum know how many scum there are and so if you forget or get it wrong then you're more likely town.

That wasn't the whole point; part of 106 stated that Datisi correcting the number of scum made her more likely scum. That part is relevant to Aaron's reply.

[Something_Smart]

I propose mass-claim, but only after we get a bit more action. I'm thinking around 2/3 - 3/4 of day mark. Thoughts?

No gun should ever claim earlier than the day before they can shoot, unless forced to (and even if forced, they should claim only gun at L-1 and not what night).

So probably wait until at least day 3 unless D1/N1 go disastrously for town and D3 could be LYLO.

[Something_Smart]

The rationale is that then they will die before shooting, and town will lose a chance to make a town-aligned kill.

[Something_Smart]

I guess I would then clarify that it's jokingly correcting Mena but then not doing anything else that I find scummy, not the act of correcting itself

Understood. Though that seems dubious.

But hey, when you're getting out of RVS, you take what you can get, I suppose.

[Something_Smart]

So GuiltyLion is going with the 'Datisi is scum because she knows how many scum are in game and corrected someone on it' approach?

No...?

[Something_Smart]

Posting stuff like 'waiting for smt to happen' while having a scumread that ur not pushing or engaging with is mehhhh

Who posted that?

[Something_Smart]

Anyone else think this is a weird question?

What's weird about it?

[Something_Smart]

@GL do you think 35 was genuine?

Why ask this of GL in particular?

Ask me this again later

Can you answer this yet?

[Something_Smart]

Who asks "Did you know how many scum are in the game?" in an open setup?

I mean, people knowing or not knowing the number of scum in the game has kinda been the primary topic of discussion thus far, and the answer to that question is very relevant to the discussion...

[Something_Smart]

Why do you think that Menalque wanted meta information on me for perfect masquerade?

I mean, presumably so he could take a look at your meta?

You should ask him this, not me.

[Something_Smart]

Then people are taking some posts way too seriously.

Is that a bad thing? We're pretty much out of RVS thanks to those people.

[Something_Smart]

I don't even know what skitty means...

Skittish presumably.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if you've read the thread you haven't missed anything.

Who was that addressed to?

[Something_Smart]

I find it weird that people are looking for excuses to TR me tbh

Towny paranoia

[Something_Smart]

I kind of think that opportunistic votes on page 2, even if serious, are not scum indicative.

[Something_Smart]

Opportunism is voting someone for a weak reason. For a player looking to vote in the very early game, they have no reasons but weak reasons, regardless of alignment. So if it's GL's nature to try to get a serious vote down asap, then it's completely expected for him to jump on the first scrap of content he can find.

[Something_Smart]

It’s the combination of it “being worth a non-RVS vote” but not really going beyond that that makes the opportunism seem scummy to me

What do you mean "not really going beyond that"?

[Something_Smart]

Okay so then why not say that when asked about it?

What do you call 121?

[Something_Smart]

Tbf i also have less faith now than I used to in sorting through meta if it’s not meta I have personally with people

Good call. Secondhand meta is a real nasty can of worms.

[Something_Smart]

Like being non-RVS implies to me that he thought there was something genuinely scummy about dats’ thing but I don’t think he’s followed that up

118, 135, 144 are following it up, no?

[Something_Smart]

him being scummy doesn’t necessarily mean he’s scum

I mean this is true of everyone lol.

[Something_Smart]

Generally people who are easier to mislynch are easier to mislynch across most of their games.

[Something_Smart]

I think part of the problem is that my scum leans don’t make sense with each other unless they’re playing like a super distancy game

I don't think this is a problem, since the odds that your scum leans are all correct are probably similar to the odds that scum decided to distance a lot for shits and giggles.

[Something_Smart]

Like not aggressively so but it seems like a lot of whatever anyone is posting you’re shutting down before it gets off the ground

No I'm not, why would you think that

That's kinda my MO, especially early-game.

[Something_Smart]

Can you say what the cologne gambit is?

It's literally nothing. He asks people if they wear cologne and then pretends like he got something out of it.

I suppose the gambit is just him gauging how people react to something they don't understand.

[Something_Smart]

because if anyone actually thinks I’m mislynch bait, LOL.

I mean if your track record in Guns & Roses games is any indication...

You had a scum wagon on a silver platter and somehow ended up lynched instead

[Something_Smart]

Your brain must be very disordered.

You can say that again.

[Something_Smart]

@SOmething_Smart, any reason why you didn't RVS? Just curious.

I almost never do, for a variety of reasons, but mainly that I don't think random votes are necessary to leave RVS (lol), I don't think early wagons generally help to sort people, and I use my vote very sparingly so that it carries more weight.

[Something_Smart]

Also, I just looked through all your posts again. You post very neutral, answer and ask a bunch of questions but haven't drawn any conclusions from them.
You have too many posts for me to link all of them, but I encourage everyone to ISO SOmething_Smart up to Post 310.

I think thats a very strong scumtell.

Ooh, I could take this in a lot of different directions.

For now let's go with this one. Let's assume that town-S_S draws plenty of conclusions, even early on. Since this is something very noticeable, obviously I'd be aware of it. Now, when playing in this game, with tons of people who know me, do you really think I wouldn't attempt to replicate that?

[Something_Smart]

This post strikes me as scummy for not wanting to commit

Why's that scummy?

[Something_Smart]

But tbh I townlean him because I think he’s actually trying to work with me, even if I still think he’s been a bit overly oppositional

My apologies. Better to be overly oppositional than overly conciliatory, imo. I'd rather people have no reads than bad reads

[Something_Smart]

Also I like that he didn’t hop onto the ‘mena townslipped’ thing and actively called it out

Why do you like that?

[Something_Smart]

SS Probably should get some pressure and make some actual moves instead of seemingly fencesitting.

Good luck with that one, I work on my own schedule and not anyone else's.

Is there anything specific you want my opinion on?

[Something_Smart]

Also fencesitting is not NAI, its opportunism which is scummy.

Fencesitting and opportunism are literally opposites...?

Fencesitting is refusing to commit to a stance, even if there are good reasons. Opportunism is taking a stance without a good reason.

Both are context dependent, both can be scummy in some situations, and both can be personality indicative. But they are not the same thing.

[Something_Smart]

But you can also add the seemingly random vote on me in 169 as well.

What do you think is scummy about that post? Is it purely the fact that he voted someone you know to be town?

[Something_Smart]

Example: "I think SS is town but I'm not completely sold at this time" *SS gets wagoned* "Imma vote SS cause I think he could flip scum" *SS Flips Town* "SS was town it wasn't a good wagon guys"
(Thats assuming its coming from scum btw)

Well yes. Of course that's a scummy behavior. But just because I'm not committing to anything now, it doesn't mean that when I do commit to something I won't have a good reason for it.

Like fencesitting is part of that scum equation, but it's only part of it, and it's not the bad part-- the bad part is sheeping onto a bad wagon without a good reason.

[Something_Smart]

I just don't know where it came from.

But it must have come from somewhere, regardless of his alignment, no?

It's not like he's scum and made that vote knowing that if asked to justify it all he could do was stare blankly.

[Something_Smart]

If he's being secretive about his reasons, ask him about them. Don't assume they don't exist.

[Something_Smart]

*It, lol.

Sorry for some reason I thought Iconeum was a he.

[Something_Smart]

Right now? Nobody.

We're not even 48 hours in.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sure I could point to something that I think is slightly more likely scum than random.

But it hardly seems like a good idea to vote based on something little now, when I could wait and vote based on something bigger later.

[Something_Smart]

And to compound that, I don't focus on finding scum in the early days; I focus on finding town. Who I end up voting on D1 is usually someone outside of my townreads who is being wagoned. Though this obviously varies from game to game.

[Something_Smart]

God youre so fucking boring. "Look at me being all safe and cautious with my vote" UGH. Wheres the excitement. The Action? THE DRAMA.

Id put a bullet in you right now not because youre scum, because shit like the above is one day going to fuck me over when you do flip scum, whether it be this game or another.

I hate you so much. UGHGHGHSG

We'll have plenty of time for drama in later days, lol. The current site meta may suffer from many problems but I wouldn't really say a lack of drama is among them

Besides, there are 14 players in the game, of which I am but one. Given this playerlist I'm sure there will be plenty of fireworks anyway.

[Something_Smart]

I think I've lost my ability to read Creature, not sure if I've forgotten or if his town and scum playstyles have evolved to be more similar.

I'm not having a hard time imagining him as scum here, but I don't know what that counts for.

[Something_Smart]

Sally's post on SS is super awkward

Maybe a bit, but he's definitely not the first person to react to me this way. Pops said a very similar thing in G&R I, and she was town.

[Something_Smart]

Okay guys, you heard him. Everyone unvote, and use your votes very sparingly so that it carries more weight.
Wait a second......

Don't be a smartass. Not everyone is the same, and different playstyles work for different people.

[Something_Smart]

Um.. wtf kinda response is that? fuck meta mate I haven't even played a game with you.

Not a meta response! It deals exclusively with this game-- how I would hypothetically play in this game as town, and how I would hypothetically play in this game as scum.

Those are quite obviously relevant in reading me, and if you have an opinion on my alignment, it must mean you think there's a mismatch between the two-- I would fencesit as scum where I WOULDN'T fencesit as town.

With me so far?

Right, so what I want you to answer is, if I'm scum, do you think I'd be aware of the fact that as town I'd be making commitments, and then choose not to make them, transparently revealing myself to anyone who's ever played with me before?

[Something_Smart]

fencesitting. Like you.

I didn't ask for a

description of the behavior.

Obviously I know what fencesitting is.

I want to know why it's scummy.

[Something_Smart]

Lets go further with this.
If you were to suddenly die, we would gain 0 information regardless if you were scum or town. That's how you've been playing so far. Thats more scummy than NAI or towny.

Maybe.

But don't pretend that this isn't true for anyone else. Just because someone made a vote, or got voted, and then flipped town, doesn't mean their vote was right, or that there was scum in the people voting them. (Inversely, if they flipped scum, it doesn't make the person they voted nor the ones voting them town.)

Information doesn't magically spring from flips. It springs from discussion. You have discussion, you form reads, you get flips, you look back and analyze.

If you wanted me to generate some reads, of course I could. I could pull names out of a hat, or maybe look at the alignment of the stars. Or I could try to read heavily into early game posting. All of these would have the same result: the reads would be garbage. And don't try to tell me that garbage reads are valuable post-flip.

I will share reads when I want, and not before. End of discussion.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I don't like it either, but it doesn't make him scum. Do you think it does?

[Something_Smart]

You think Aaron is town? How come?

[Something_Smart]

I'm good with my current vote

Why? Because Amrun voted Aaron whom you townread?

[Something_Smart]

they appeared to be much more sure of their vote of Aaron at first and then did were like "might be scum might not lol"

Wouldn't scum be more prone to do the opposite? Put out a tentative scumread and then if people agree they can pretend to get more confident, and if people disagree they can back off?

I don't really see this headstrong behavior as scum indicative.

[Something_Smart]

Amrun wagon is hot garbage.

[Something_Smart]

Actually no, most other people we lynch we'll get more info than you. THe way you're playing is very scummy.

Hey, I can make random statements without backing them up too, but that doesn't help anybody.

Of course, I see the hypocrisy here because I just gave my Amrun comment with no explanation, but I posted that in a spare moment during a busy night.

Essentially I think that Amrun's criticism of Aaron was both reasonable and consistent with aggressive town looking for someone to put pressure on. I don't think that scum would really be searching for a mislynch target already, and certainly in my experience people who start a new wagon early on in this way are not scum more often than random.

And in addition to all this, the actual reasons people gave for joining the wagon mostly amounted to "why not." That reasoning might hold when we're 12 hours from deadline and struggling to build consensus, but it is pretty weak at this moment.

[Something_Smart]

Tbh I haven’t explored the alim/SS stuff as closely as I should have so I’m going to be ISOing you both today.

I mean I can sum it up. Alim is narrow-minded and has decided that since he doesn't like how I play, I must be scummy, even though he can't give any reason why I'm more likely to play this way as scum than as town (and indeed doesn't even understand what I'm asking when I ask for this), and literally everyone who's played with me before can confirm that the way I am playing is indicative only of my personality.

[Something_Smart]

I mean almost half the game has made votes of that quality or worse.

[Something_Smart]

I, uh, have an abysmal track record at reading GL and I'm pretty sure it's worse than random.

[Something_Smart]

He's been very proactive with his votes and was pretty much the one who kick-started us getting out of RVS. And his Amrun vote while sheepy was based on a large mass of townreads which I think is reasonable.

So I wouldn't exactly say I townread him, that's asking for disaster given our history, but I definitely see how his posts could be coming from a town mindset.

[Something_Smart]

Also what exactly is wrong with 604? I read it again and it seems pretty reasonable to me (aside from the unexplained vote which is pretty much par for the course this game).

[Something_Smart]

If it's worse than random you should just inverse your reads SS

I mean, if that trend is accurate (and it's only a handful of games so I wouldn't say it is necessarily), that would just be adopting a different method of reading him, and wouldn't actually fix the problem. Paradoxically that would mean that no matter which conclusion I came to, it would be likely wrong.

I guess this paradox shows how weird it would be for someone's read to actually be worse that random. It's likely it simply is close to random.

[Something_Smart]

I don't rly think anyone is town reading me for my "not a townslip" vs the fact that I'm actually solving and sorting people, how caught up are you at this point?

Would it count if I'm townreading you for your insistence that the supposed townslip wasn't towny?

Purely hypothetical question, of course.

[Something_Smart]

stahp

That was actually a serious (and genuinely hypothetical) question to gauge your reaction, but I went and checked and you actually never really did insist that the townslip wasn't real unless I'm missing something?

I mean there's 200 which is mildly towny, though I think your towniest post is 220 and even then that's pretty weak considering you feel pretty tonally different from past games. Might just be that the context is different though.

[Something_Smart]

How am I tonally different?

I think primarily you seem more confident in your opinions.

[Something_Smart]

There should be no reason for DW to vote GL if the bolded parts are true.

... Doesn't one of the bolded parts say that the GL wagon is town driven?

[Something_Smart]

She said the amrun wagon is scum-driven and yet voted it.

She said the Amrun wagon was scum driven after unvoting

[Something_Smart]

Thank you phone for shifting the page down a moment after loading it and making me hit submit lmao. That was a half-coherent thought and so I considered leaving it and pretending it was intentional but I won't, lol.

She said the Amrun wagon was scum driven after unvoting

Amrun and saying she was getting second thoughts about the wagon.

[Something_Smart]

Oh also I don’t rly think this is true but okay

Maybe not, but you're definitely giving the impression.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think it’s AI?

Having no firsthand experience with your scumgame, it's entirely possible that it is.

Would you say that you act more or less confident as scum than you do as town?

[Something_Smart]

More probably

I forget that I’m meant to not know everyone’s alignment

Yeah that's what I guessed, and why I was a bit uneasy about you.

But that's minor stuff, I expect my read on you to work itself out eventually.

[Something_Smart]

Datisi has a pretty bad Amrun progression but otherwise unremarkable.

Iconeum 169 and 223 seem pretty genuine.

[Something_Smart]

I think activity is a lot less often alignment indicative than people think it is. I don't really see what would be wrong with those behaviors.

[Something_Smart]

What do you think is bad about dats’ amrun progression?

It was totally unexplained and then when she did explain it she didn't really explain it, if that makes any sense.

[Something_Smart]

Like when I pressed her about it she finally gave 462 which for the most part just described behaviors and didn't say why they were likely to come from scum.

[Something_Smart]

what games have there been where you've townread me when I was scum? From my recollection you just pretty much always scumread me and then are wrong most of the time because I'm town most of the time

I think I townread you for most of the game in Team Mafia, though I might be mistaken.

I guess maybe more generally my pattern of reading you is often roughly "townread -> paranoia -> scumread" regardless of your alignment.

[Something_Smart]

It's actually pretty much why I'm scum reading Alimdia in fact, they spend more of their time riffing on S_S (a completely non-existent wagon) than posting anything relevant to the likely lynchs and flips at hand

I don't really think this is a scumtell in most cases?

Like there is a specific type of player who would take refuge in this kind of single-mindedness as scum, but I think most people wouldn't. Do you know or suspect that alimdia is like that?

[Something_Smart]

If we lynch anyone else, it won't even matter what they flip, Amrun is still gonna be hot tomorrow.

Fun fact, when I read this post earlier my half-awake brain read it as "Amrun is still gonna be

shot

tomorrow" and was like "shit that's a good point" and now I'm realizing that (a) that's not what you said and (b) there are only two guns so it isn't even true.

As it stands it's kind of a dumb argument though? Like obviously if Amrun remains widely scumread for the entire game she will be lynched or vigged at some point. There's no reason to believe she would remain widely scumread though, especially since the case on her was pretty weak to begin with and most of the votes on her were sheepy.

[Something_Smart]

Firstly, I want to apologise if I was tunneling on SS.

Apology accepted. And like I said, it's totally reasonable for you to not understand or agree with my playstyle.

But bear in mind that I didn't just randomly decide to play this way, and it's also not out of apathy or lack of investment; it's the result of four years of seeing what works and what doesn't. You overestimate how anti-town it is, I believe, probably because you have a preconceived notion of how town generates "information."

[Something_Smart]

Just ISO'd DDL. I think he's likely town unless he has a history of not giving any shits as scum. This kind of extreme reactiveness and blatant sheeping seems like it would probably backfire on him is he were scum, the exception being if one of his sheep votes was onto a partner.

[Something_Smart]

I'm going to be watching very closely what SS/Pret/texcat do in the next few days.

Why that group of three specifically?

[Something_Smart]

This is a bizarre stance to take; however, I get the impression that you rely a lot on meta so I think that’s NAI from you. I, however, think meta is trash.

Heh, was reading stuff and just noticed this post where Amrun in the same breath makes a meta read and calls meta trash.

[Something_Smart]

What do you think of the fact that the DDL wagon isn't going anywhere but Amrun's did.

The Amrun push came at a point where very little had happened, and Menalque made an effort to solicit people to join it which added to its legitimacy. Whereas DDL push was quieter and people already have opinions by this point.

In other words I don't think it's because Amrun is town and DDL is scum, if that's what you're getting at.

[Something_Smart]

Because those votes are going to be important in deciding who gets lynched.

Oh gotcha.

Ngl I was afraid you were trying to call me a lurker

[Something_Smart]

Because those votes are going to be important in deciding who gets lynched.

Oh gotcha.

Ngl I was afraid you were trying to call me a lurker

Wait, hold the phone. Why texcat? She's already on GL.

[Something_Smart]

Threshold of what?

[Something_Smart]

@SS threshold of how town a player has to look before i call them town

Does that mean that you start the game scumreading everybody?

[Something_Smart]

Normally I like it when there are two competing wagons close to deadline, because it's interesting and there's a lot to read into both in the moment and afterward.

I don't like it this time, though, because pretty much nobody on either wagon has actually given a good reason for their vote.

Like here we are, probably most people are taking it for granted that no lynch outside of {Amrun, GL} is possible, and yet all I can recall about why Amrun is being wagoned is one post she made about Aaron and I can't recall anything about why GL is being wagoned.

This is concerning.

For the record I think Menalque adamantly pushing a third option is towny especially if Amrun/GL do end up being different alignments.

[Something_Smart]

I'll go for it.

Was considering Iconeum because 731 feels more agenda-motivated every time I read it, but I don't know if it would be that on the nose about trying to push through a mislynch as scum. It actually probably looks worse if Amrun flips scum because those bad optics are no longer an issue.

But it's been the better part of the day and I have yet to be impressed by Creature.

VOTE: Creature

[Something_Smart]

i dont know what you are trying to bait out here nor how its relevant but this question is scummy.

I'm trying to understand your scumhunting method, because it doesn't make sense to me right now. You implied that you townread someone once they post enough towny content, and you scumread Amrun because she had not yet posted that content.

To me, that seems to imply that if someone hasn't posted much, that would lead you to scumread them even if their lack of posting is obviously not alignment related.

[Something_Smart]

Why do you think GL is scum?

[Something_Smart]

So it wasn't the actual vote that looked scummy to me, it was the way he continued to defend it as serious.

Why do you think he would be more likely to defend it like that as scum?

[Something_Smart]

Ugh, don’t like texcat’s stance on me - if GL is indeed town, feels like lining up mislynches.

But on the other hand if GL is lynched and flips town your lynch has basically lined itself up. It's not as though that sentiment expressed by texcat is unexpected; she's just the first to say it out loud.

[Something_Smart]

My problem right now is that my two top scum reads don't make much sense together.

That really isn't a problem. Even the strongest scumhunters can't consistently call 2 out of 3 scum on D1. Your reads are hopefully going to change as the game goes on.

[Something_Smart]

Tell me this: for anything creature has done that’s scummy, has ddl not done the same thing but worse?

Being generally absent is (or at least used to be) a scumtell for Creature in a way that it's not for most people.

Granted I don't know if this is still true and I have heard that his scum and town games have gotten more similar recently.

[Something_Smart]

That’s the definition of lhf

You misunderstand then. It's a meta read.

Classic Creature meta, circa a year or two ago, was (roughly) "if he's posting, he's town."

[Something_Smart]

Yeah Im digging my vote rn

I'm actually not a huge fan of it myself but I do prefer it to Amrun or GL.

[Something_Smart]

The key words being “cerca a year or two ago”

What's your point? That's when the majority of my Creature experience is from. I've made a clear invitation for anyone who's played with him more recently to let me know if it's still true.

[Something_Smart]

Whats worse: not being here at all or being here and doing exactly nothing? Which is what ddl has been doing

Not being here is definitely worse. Just by posting you open yourself up to potential negative attention.

As scum I'm way more likely to think "I'm afraid of saying the wrong thing so I won't post" than I am to think "I'm afraid of being called out as lurking so I'll post some useless shit."

[Something_Smart]

that’s exactly what I’m doing rn??

Yes I see, I missed 812 in the flurry of posts, my bad.

What exactly changed in his meta?

[Something_Smart]

Regardless my more in-depth thoughts on Creature are basically "there's some chance that I'd be able to confidently call Creature town by this point, and I can't, so it raises the odds of him being scum."

For the record the above also applies to you Menalque but it's a lot weaker because I have gotten very fast and accurate townreads on him whereas I have not on you.

[Something_Smart]

actually maybe I misinterpreted the tone of that Creature post.

Still though, it's shading DDL without actually calling him scum, so my broader point stands

I was about to say that lol.

I don't understand why shading someone without calling them scum is scummy though; DDL appealed to Creature to defend his meta, and Creature responded with his opinion on DDL's meta.

[Something_Smart]

That's right I forgot I had put you as a townlean for the DDL push. Derp.

[Something_Smart]

if Creature thinks DDL's meta doesn't make him town here, why would he not go a step further than to just shoot down DDL's appeal to him?

I mean ostensibly that's exactly what he did? Creature is a minimalist. I thought it was pretty clear that he was suggesting that what DDL said was irrelevant.

[Something_Smart]

give me town cred, I’m the one who found scum!

Reading the names of your buddies in your role PM doesn't count.

[Something_Smart]

Pretty sure creature hated and disagreed with the meta tell.

I mean a slightly more advanced version of it (looking at the amount of content he put out) was pretty accurate for a while, imo.

Regardless, my read here isn't even tied to activity. It's entirely possible that Creature could have obvtowned himself in 41 posts. Because he didn't, it raises the prior of him being scum.

[Something_Smart]

SS, whats it gonna take to get you to move onto ddl?

The Creature wagon dying and/or Creature coming in and being towny, for one.

I'd also need to reread DDL and become comfortable with voting him.

[Something_Smart]

The posts are saying a lot of nothing

This usually isn't a scumtell q.q

[Something_Smart]

Why doesn’t he just do that as scum then?

I mean by definition he usually can't...

[Something_Smart]

It is when they’re posting in a way that makes it look like something

Why?

[Something_Smart]

Also Datisi is living to D2 unless mafia has a gun or shes the NK.

I mean mafia very likely have 3 guns.

[Something_Smart]

Classic Town Me.

You divert as scum too mr. "I'm masons with Cheeky"

[Something_Smart]

Do mafia always go gun though?

4/5 mafia members in past games have gone gun and the fifth was Firebringer.

It seems far and away better to get an extra NK than it is to maybe avoid getting shot if you're (un)lucky enough to be shot on the correct night.

[Something_Smart]

Pretentious who else do you scumread and would you vote them today?

FTFY.

[Something_Smart]

It was still a leading question.

[Something_Smart]

I think GL is town.

(And so the cycle begins again...)

[Something_Smart]

you didn’t seem that in danger of getting lynched

GL was L-2 and Creature has never been higher than L-4...

[Something_Smart]

Idgi. What's alignment indicative about that GL post?

[Something_Smart]

Evidence?

[Something_Smart]

It just looks bad. I dont know the percentages man.

Pardon me for remaining unconvinced.

I don't think scum-GL posts that while failing to realize (or succeeding in realizing) that he wouldn't make a similar post as town.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I don't particularly think he is either but I think he's the best out of the current wagon options.

[Something_Smart]

Wanna talk about 731?

Why does scumconeum post that if Amrun is town?

[Something_Smart]

(THATS SARCASM SS DONT FUCKING START)

Lmao

[Something_Smart]

Don't really like SS's adamant defense of GL.

Why not?

[Something_Smart]

Talk to me about this please.

I townlean GL just because he seems to be making a consistent effort to ask sorting questions and engage and the like, and if that sounds generic it's because it is and I have a very hard time reading him. But regardless I don't think he deserved that wagon.

As for Amrun I don't actually know; there have been posts of hers I liked but hell if I remember which ones. But I think her wagon was similarly undeserved and given the speed of it and the sheepiness of everyone on it I definitely don't feel confident about it.

Not that I feel confident about Creature, at the very least, there's a reason to be wagoning him (he's done jack shit).

[Something_Smart]

if it's actually gonna be between GL creature or Amrun I think you know which way i'm gonna fly

And all the trainers say I'm pretty fly (for a Dragonite)

[Something_Smart]

Iconeum is town.

[Something_Smart]

Town just like L5 was

Come on, don't compare Iconeum to TSE.

[Something_Smart]

EXCUSE ME?

TSE was just generally awful in Perfect Masquerade and got force-replaced, and Salamence just compared your play here to their (town) play there.

Which was unwarranted because a townie flying off the handle and getting tunnely like you did here is not the same as crossing lines and getting ejected from the game.

[Something_Smart]

oh i'm about to get extremely tunnely in this game alright

Yeah can you like not

Salamence is one of my stronger townreads.

[Something_Smart]

I dislike menal's ddl push fwiw

Dislike as in disagree with, or dislike as in scumread?

[Something_Smart]

No activity is more anti-town than activity.

Generally, yes, but generally anti-town behavior is not scummy.

[Something_Smart]

Aaron:

Don't really like SS's adamant defense of GL.

Why not?

[Something_Smart]

Like I'm confused what makes you think town!GL would ever post what he did in 845.

Because he wouldn't post it as scum unless he knew he'd also post it as town.

[Something_Smart]

Like I bugged Salamence for an explanation of why it was scummy and all he could give was "it feels bad." The burden of proof isn't on the one saying it's null; it's on the people saying it's scummy.

[Something_Smart]

You dont usually say things like it because it looks bad.

This much is true. It isn't a common thing to hear from either alignment.

But he certainly knows this and yet he said it anyway. Therefore he was willing to look bad. If anything, that's towny, though I do think scum-GL would say something like that too so it's not that towny.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

I would like to hear from Creature if at all possible and I don't want him lolhammered.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, I saw a wagon growing on me and tbh I wanted to see how it would go

[Something_Smart]

I'm down.

VOTE: Aaron

[Something_Smart]

He should have been here earlier

Yeah.

But who do you think was most harmed by him not showing up earlier?

[Something_Smart]

Town if he is town.

If hes scum, his scumbuddies who didnt bus

In particular, himself, regardless of his alignment.

If he's town, he thought he could make up for it by getting reads based on how people treated his wagon.

If he's scum, he thought... (Fill in the blanks. Why did he continue to lurk after being wagoned for lurking?)

[Something_Smart]

I don't think it's impossible for him to be scum but you should certainly not be that confident.

[Something_Smart]

I won't ever claim

Um

That's a bad policy.

[Something_Smart]

But you'll allow yourself to get lynched as town D1?

[Something_Smart]

Why are you on Aaron now when you had plenty of chances earlier? What is it about creature that made you think AF is scum?

I wasn't going to move off of Creature while he was still absent, I wanted to hear from him.

I was never a huge fan of Aaron, he's hovering somewhere around scumlean just like Creature was (though Creatures up to a townlean, because I have a hard time believing that Creature thought what he just posted would save him). Creature seems to know what he's talking about re: Aaron and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and lynch in the two of them.

[Something_Smart]

SS's sheep on Creature's weak meta case is awful.

Elaborate.

[Something_Smart]

So was aaron lying? Are you an alt of someone whos been in games with aaron?

What?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=30907

[Something_Smart]

yeah I'm a little surprised Smart didn't seem to bother to check the game and just defaulted to "Creature seems to know what he's talking about"

What would I have gotten out of checking the game? Meta from games you weren't in is dubious at best.

[Something_Smart]

Because if you truly felt this way about me, there were plenty of opportunities to put your vote on me.

Correct, I had many opportunities to put my vote on you, and I took one of them. I shouldn't have to tell you that I'm conservative with my vote, and you can't honestly pretend that nothing changed between when I voted Creature and when I voted you.

I can have multiple people I'd be willing to vote, but I nevertheless have only one vote.

Why would you, if you're town, give Creature (someone you were scumreading and have said was a decent wagon option) the benefit of the doubt and trust his read? Like it was so far out of left field.

Because Creature is a strong player who is often ignored?

Like, I don't know what gave you the impression that my scumread on Creature was at all strong (I said things suggesting the contrary multiple times), and I don't know what gave you the impression that it wasn't something that could swing quickly (I specifically said it was due to lack of anything towny so a single towny post could completely reverse it. Not that that happened, but he made me reevaluate).

[Something_Smart]

I mean you would have at least found the thing I found (that Aaron also brought up) where Creature didn't appear to obvtownread AF in that game

I generally assume people are telling the truth about easily verifiable things

Hell, even if someone says something inaccurate about something that happened in the current game, that I witnessed, there's probably only a 50/50 chance I actually catch it

[Something_Smart]

Much simpler to say compared to

I was trying to avoid breaking the rule myself.

[Something_Smart]

So I'm correct in assuming you now townread Creature? Do you think Creature is right on his read of me?

Townlean, and I think there's a decent chance.

Probably a better chance than any other wagon today had, including the Creature one.

[Something_Smart]

I still think my pre-Creature-returning-to-thread read of "nobody is bussing Creature if he's scum" is solid

Well man, if that's true, he should be probably town, right?

How often does an L-1 wagon rise that quickly with scum avoiding it?

[Something_Smart]

I still think my pre-Creature-returning-to-thread read of "nobody is bussing Creature if he's scum" is solid

Well man, if that's true, he should be probably town, right?

How often does an L-1 wagon rise that quickly with scum avoiding it?

Not that I understand how you arrived at a conclusion like that.

[Something_Smart]

Also: Setup Spec needs to come into play tomorrow. Why does town have so many roses?

I think even tomorrow's probably too early for that.

But eventually, sure.

That's part of how we caught LLD in G&R I.

[Something_Smart]

Who here knows Boon well enough to fearkill him?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, I was.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I find it weird that you’re phrasing that as an open question bc I think that was a pretty major point of discussion in pfup

Aren't you and I the only ones here who were in that game?

I obviously know that you know him.

[Something_Smart]

So I kinda feel like you already know that FL is a good scum kill for me and that I have enough history with him to make that kill and it’s off to me that you’re choosing not to say that directly

Oh uh

I townread you so I was looking for an answer to that question other than you.

[Something_Smart]

Are you saying you didn't completely block the fiasco that was pfup from your memory?

(I remember it now that you mention it but mostly all I could think of was that FL was obvscum and nobody wanted to kill him but me.)

[Something_Smart]

I thought you weren’t TRing me bc you thought something was off?

Tonally yes but independently I townread your DDL push which was a vastly more substantial reason for a read.

[Something_Smart]

menal weirdly defensive of an open question

I don't think it's weird.

[Something_Smart]

Are we sure that Pret was a scum kill though? Because Salamence was mostly townread from what I remember so I think scum was more likely to kill him.

Interesting. You think that Boon was a vig shot because Salamence was the scum kill?

[Something_Smart]

Possibly, but probabaly unlikely with how little town guns there are

Please expand on this, as much as you can.

I'm not trying to needle you for a contradiction or anything, I just want to hear your thoughts.

[Something_Smart]

What?

[Something_Smart]

Are you suggesting that scum don't know if they hit a N1 rose?

[Something_Smart]

That's an unlikely situation. It's far more likely that a scum gun hit a town rose, which is something town WOULD want to know, although they have no way of finding it out.

[Something_Smart]

Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol

Different how?

[Something_Smart]

Okay, I’m thinking most probable is 2 on 1 off

That is statistically the most likely possibility (probably, haven't done the math).

I doubt it's any more likely than statistics say it is.

[Something_Smart]

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

Cooperation does not mean agreeing on everything

[Something_Smart]

I mean the level of opposition I'll hold against things people say varies from game to game based on several factors, primarily whether I actually disagree with what people are saying, lol.

Not sure if I do it more or less as scum. In fact I honestly have no idea what my scumgame would look like right now because my last scumgame was way different from any other one I've played.

[Something_Smart]

Had you already had the thought about 2 on 1 off?

No, I think that kind of unsupported VCA statement is garbage and a distraction.

I may read a specific player because I think their reasoning for being on or off the wagon did or didn't make sense, but trying to specifically hunt the scum who was off the wagon is a recipe for disaster.

[Something_Smart]

A2TGC

What does this mean

[Something_Smart]

Are you implying that my VCA was garbage and a distraction? Is this separate to my VCA?

Your statement that it was probably 2 on 1 off, while true, was a distraction, because then you go on to say there's a 33% chance of hitting scum in {texcat, DDL, S_S}, which is not supported by math, and you've given no evidence for it.

[Something_Smart]

Added to the group chat

Oh. No, it was Baton Pass.

[Something_Smart]

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

No. It's only true if we are completely positive that it's 2-on 1-off, which we aren't. Just because that's the most likely scenario doesn't mean we can take it for granted.

[Something_Smart]

It’s probably 2 on 1 off because of the wagon resistance on creature

Can you explain this?

[Something_Smart]

No I'm not being intentionally dense. The strongest wagon resistance to Creature was Creature himself, me, Pretentious, and you whom I townread. It was, by and large, TOWN resistance.

The fact that the wagon went through despite heavy town resistance should make it more likely than random that all 3 scum were on it, no?

[Something_Smart]

If all 3 scum are on wagon when we know it was being pushed by town (sally) then why was it so hard to get through

How was it hard to get through? The wagon only sprung up because Creature wasn't posting, and the he started posting, and nobody batted an eyelash and he was lynched anyway.

Just because it took a lot of time doesn't mean it was hard. There was no counterwagon and almost nobody on the wagon made any effort to create one, pretty much sealing his fate.

[Something_Smart]

What do you think of ddl and tex independently at this point?

Both could be scum. Boon expressed some suspicion of texcat and was voting DDL so I can see either of them killing him. There was something I mildly liked about DDL but idr what it is.

Texcat has had very little content, at least from what I can remember. Would have to look at her more in depth and I can't do that rn.

[Something_Smart]

Also I think there was at least one effort to create a counterwagon on ddl and I thought on someone else too?

Creature and I tried wagoning Aaron but nobody else left the Creature wagon to join the counterwagons, meaning they were basically only going to allow him to be lynched.

[Something_Smart]

It felt like it was hard to get through, and I think generally wagons stalling out is indicative that they’re not easy wagons

The wagon only stalled out once it got to L-1...

[Something_Smart]

Why would scum Amrun feel the need to ISO one of Icon's scum games?

... because that's what she'd do as town?