FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Is there a reason you threw that vote down in a p-edit?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Was planning on doing it at the end. It ended up in a pedit because I'd gotten done writing the last paragraph and previewed and saw a billion posts.

Hmm.

Do you think Beast is busing? Or is there a reason you haven't recently talked about Beast's attitude towards Shielder?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh. How did Archer's flip affect your reads?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Are you asking because you think it's unlikely Rider is scum with, say, some combination of Lancer/Ruler/Saber/etc? Or are you just trying to figure out where my head is at?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If Rider is scum, I think both of his partners are in his scum reads (with maybe the exception of Saber, not sure). I don't really think Rider has much choice (if he is actually scum).

I mean the town reads consist of pretty much universal town reads plus me (which is odd in itself because apparently it's not based on interactions and Rider had problems with me last I checked but uh... that changed, I guess? Even though I'm not really sure why someone who was previously scum-reading me for playing a certain way would change their mind when I haven't really changed the way I've been playing?)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Like I said, I have a lot of reading I want to do but haven't done yet. I don't have a hard scum read on Rider (or really anyone at this point, which is disappointing, but meh). I've just seen zero reason to town read Rider based on what I have read.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Shielder v2's play looks bad for surface-level reasons, yeah.

But I'm struggling to come up with a good reason why she as scum did what she did with her claim unless she thought it would make her seem town for some reason? I don't really know why she felt it necessary as town either, but I can at least theorise it was silly-gambit-to-bait-reactions and see it making some sense. I don't see why scum outright lies about it though. This is why the whole "Shielder lied!!!" angle doesn't convince me in any way. Though someone is free to point out where my thinking is incorrect here if they want.

As far as the rest of Shielder v2's play is concerned, eh. I honestly can't follow a lot of the reads and reasoning but there are still _some_ things I think seemed town about the way Shielder was talking to people. It wouldn't be the first time someone has had completely nonsensical reads for nonsensical reasons and ended up being town so I'm trying to look past that and think about what angle she was trying to push as scum vs what she was trying to do as town, and I see more things that point to the latter.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The amended claim was less plausible though rofl. I guess maybe she (and assuming day talk, the rest of her team) thought differently? But eh, I still don't understand the motivation behind it and "she's dumb" doesn't fully explain it

[Servant Moon Cancer]

When I say I don't understand the motivation behind it, I mean the amendment. As in, why not just claim she had the standard mechanic and was just reaction testing or something? Why 'come clean' with another (less plausible imo) lie?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What are your reads, currently?

I townread you and assassin. I scumread moon cancer and shielder. I do not have much of an opinion on anyone else.

this is interesting because i scumread archer and assassin and to some extent moon cancer, so one scum in each bucket of a scums reads? hmm

For the sake of it, I'll just link this quote and say I thought this was an example of a town thought process from Shielder.

(I am aware that scum can say things like this, but I think most of the time scum don't think like this D1.)

(I am also aware that you could argue it looks like she had knowledge of Archer's alignment. I could theoretically see that being the case but I also tend to think scum try to be less, like... blatant, I guess is the word? Drawing attention to that when she was one of the people in the scum reads just seems pretty bold.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Not every use of hmm is equal and it wasn't because it was at the end of the sentence, it was because he wrote it after a question that implied something without coming to any conclusion about said implication in a way that looked like he was trying to gauge public opinion with committing, if that makes sense. Archer's hmm was just awful.

Shielder's use of hmm looks more like she found something interesting in tandem with her reads. Like, I'd probably hmm too if my scum read did something like that with my other two scum reads.

*shrug*

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Lancer's posts are interesting, original takes. That feel sort of cribbed from other people's thoughts in other games.

Heh. Interesting is a word I'd use too.

I'm reading it from the perspective he knows both of the current wagons are on town but he thinks Shielder's is the one going through today. (I don't think he expected Assassin to hop back on Caster.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I mean, he isn't technically wrong that I don't mind the Shielder wagon going through to prove that I'm right.

My selfish motivations aside, even if I felt confident enough to try to bulldoze through a wagon I'd prefer, the current game state (i.e. people's thoughts about Caster/Shielder) probably wouldn't permit it without a ton of effort and I don't have the time to commit to that atm even if I wanted to.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Your question makes no sense, Lancer. There's no difference. Did you somehow miss the conversation I had with Assassin about town indicators in Caster's posts? The one where I gave very specific examples (although made it clear that I'm not going to go through everything).

If you think what I was doing was trying to derail the Shielder wagon then lol. Yeah, I regularly try to derail wagons by posting a single quote and saying I think it's town.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I should note, I don't plan in playing like this for the entire game. I'm mostly just trying to get back into a mafia mindset and making sure I haven't completely forgotten how to scum hunt before I start ramming wagons down your throats. I think I'm on the right track. I want to verify that before I start trying to take any sort of command of the game state. Or at least that was the original intention. Now I'm just time-strapped and other than skimming recent pages I'm just doing ISO dives when I have time. (I should get less busy soon but we'll see.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

*shrug*

Do you think Lancer is being genuine in his recent posts?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Now we get to wait for Cabd to realise there's a hammer. FWIW, I do kind of hope I'm very wrong about my current Shielder read, since that would somewhat alleviate the process of pulling my head out of my ass.

That last post was at Avenger.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I mean, you can answer it if you want, I don't care.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Can anyone tell me why Lancer is town-reading Shielder? Because I see references to awkward behaviour and not seeing scummy behaviour, but I do not see where he explains how that developed into a town read over, say, a null read.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Shielder town is a gutread prompted partially by what seems like most of the game scumreading him for not a good reason.

(Oh, and this.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Moon Cancer, claim your full action list from last night including results from abilities. Or die.

There's a third option. I ignore you and don't die.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I was not roleblocked and nothing I did last night was interfered with so that's a no.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Do I really seem like the type of player who cares about whatever you're trying to suggest?

If you want to talk about something you think I did last night, then talk about it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Berserker, I think you should work on the assumption that I'm not going to tell you anything until you talk about why you think it's significant.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'll make this simple for you: you tell me what you think you know (my target(s), my ability name(s), etc) and I'll judge whether or not I care enough to clear up whatever misunderstanding you seem to have.

We both know you don't have a guilty on me.

There is quite literally nothing I did last night that would have given you any sort of guilty.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

OK, best of luck with that, I guess.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I have no PT outside of the notes PT. Not a miller, nothing about my role would give a false positive. Nothing I did last night would have triggered any sort of false positive. I know for a fact that everything I did last night succeeded.

She can go ahead and out whatever she has. Or we can continue playing this game where neither side budges. I don't really mind.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Actually, technically I do have an ability that makes me ascetic when I use it, but I didn't use it last night.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

So we can run you up and we'll see if you're really okay being executed instead of claiming your full role and actions list and seeing what happens.

Oh, do you think I was bluffing when I said I had zero intention of fighting against my own wagon if I happened to be run up in this game?

lol

[Servant Moon Cancer]

*shrug*

I'm not particularly concerned with your opinion about my play or whether you choose to play with me in future lol.

She clearly doesn't have any sort of guilty on me. If this town is dumb enough to run me up as a result of that, then I'm fine not being in this game.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Look, I know that what I did last night succeeded (as in hit any intended target(s) I intended to hit and gave me the expected outcome).

So yeah, there's no subset of roles I can possibly think of that could have not directly interfered with my action(s) AND given you any kind of guilty.

But go ahead and claim you have information to the contrary if you want.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Heh. It amuses me because I think I know what you're hinting at, but I just don't feel like indulging you.

(And to be clear for anyone reading this, nothing in my role would give her any sort of real "guilty".)

I think she knows something about my role, but has zero clue what it means.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Maybe my guilty has nothing to do with what you did last night.

I mean, you quite literally only asked me to claim my night actions last night, which tells me that this actually is the case.

And it amuses me because if I had to guess you know who I targeted and the ability name(s), but you don't have any idea what I actually did.

I'm fully aware I could just claim and clear up this mess, but it's more amusing to me to see how far you'll go with this "guilty" and what you'll say about it if my wagon actually does go through.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

There's no "ultimatum" lol.

She doesn't have a guilty on me, and if I'm right in my guess about what she does actually know, I'm pretty sure I could clear it up just by claiming.

I'm just too stubborn to care enough about the way she's approaching me to give her the satisfaction.

So if the wagon goes through, it goes through. If it doesn't, it doesn't. So be it. *shrug*

[Servant Moon Cancer]

*shrug*

Don't blame your inability to find scum on me, thanks.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Also the fact that I could just claim to clear up the entire mess should tell you how weak her "guilty" actually is.

Yet people are treating it like a guilty.

But apparently I'm the one playing badly, haha.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh, and not to mention I think I'm like the only one in this game that's 3/3 in terms of flips so far. Maybe. There may have been someone else? In any case, I'm yet to have an incorrect read, but I'm the one playing badly, haha.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

OK.

Just assume I'm not going to claim anything and be done with this day.

We both know you don't have a guilty. And we both know that you're not going to be humbled by being incorrect on every single read you have in this game (bar Archer, don't remind me you were one of the 13 players that were correct about Archer, please).

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Hey now, archer doesn't count.

Technically right, it doesn't count, but if it did, it would count for me more than anyone else. Find another player who called him scum for as long as I did and didn't just pile on to the popular read after everyone else.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

>Incorrect on every read
>Only person actively defending Shielder all Day 1.

Okay my dude. Okay.

I mean every single one of your scum reads outside of Archer is incorrect.

No duh you'd get some town reads correct, this game is 10:4, by default even if you got 4 incorrect scum reads, you'd still have 5 correct town reads rofl.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

i think the way to handle this is as follows

berserker unvotes at some point so she can cast the hammer vote

berserker claims what her info is in the hammer post

this allows us to validate that she was not lying without giving moon cancer a chance to wiggle out

Oh, I don't think she's lying that she knows something about what I did last night.

I just think it's amusing that she thinks she has any kind of "guilty".

Honestly, more than anything else in a mafia game, I would love for this to happen, just to imagine the look on her face if she does a big hammer post outing what she knows, then Cabd immediately closes the thread and posts my flip.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I don't react well to people doing what she's doing today.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You're asking me to claim my role because you say you have a "guilty".

We both know you don't have a guilty.

So no, I'm not going to play along.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Like, literally, all you would have to do if you really had a guilty is say "he's lying" about anything I've said today and voila, you'd be done with this.

I have EXPLICITLY said that I know my action(s) went through, hit the intended target(s), I do not have a PT, no miller aspect of my role, nothing that would give you a guilty of any kind, etc etc.

If you had a guilty, you could just claim any one thing I've said there is untrue (including the fact that NOTHING in my role would give you a guilty - I am explicitly stating this).

We both know you don't have a real guilty.

So tell me why I should care about what you're doing right now.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I mean, how often does this not work out versus how often does it work out?

To be fair, this is the first time it's been done to me - it's usually more me berating people for stupid secrecy and gambits they try on other people.

NONE OF THOSE CLEAR UP THE PROBLEM, ASSHOLE.

OH WOW

I KNOW SOMETHING YOU DONT?!?!?!?!?!

THAT THOSE THINGS DON'T CLEAR YOU FROM MY ROLE?!?!?!

AS IF MY ROLE IS UNIQUE?

IN A ROLE MADNESS GAME?!?!?!?!?!?!?

fuck you

OK. But this just drives the point I was making home. You don't have a guilty on me, or you'd be able to say with absolute certainty that at least one of the things I've said is untrue.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Like I've explicitly stated that NOTHING about my role would give you a false guilty - not my role, not my actions, not my results. That should be all the evidence you need to point out that I'm lying if I'm lying.

So do it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You don't even need to out what you know, you just need to say that I'm lying about anything I've said.

But we both know you can't.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Once again, I am EXPLICITLY saying that nothing about my role, my action(s), my target(s) or my result(s) would give you a false positive.

That is as much as I'm claiming.

Feel free to call me a liar.

Instead of constantly asking me to claim (which I'm not going to do), all you have to do is point out that what I'm saying is false because you somehow got a real guilty on me.

But you won't. Because you can't.

So stop pretending like you do have anything that even remotely comes close to a guilty.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

And if you turned out to be wrong about that above statement, it's not on me.

It is 100% on you lol

Don't pretend like whatever information you have tells you anything about my alignment.

At least in twilight, be brave enough to admit that you have nothing that remotely comes close to a guilty.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

There was your Assassin read?

I mean, my initial reads on Assassin and Shielder were shit lol. I'm only really counting final pre-flip reads. If notes PTs get released, you'll see me giving, for example, my final verdict on Shielder that I stuck with pre-flip. Or see where my Assassin read reversed (and remained) for the master phase. *shrug*

I've asked Cabd not to spoil me even if I die mostly because I wanna see how accurate I can be for the rest of the game.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh, and that I didn't for one second believe the flavour trap that PA tried to pull lol. Actually, it just made me sure about my read because I thought "huge troll, def town".

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh, and if Lancer is scum, just be aware that your stupid "guilty" shenanigans are the reason he wasn't the wagon today, Berserker. That's also 100% on you.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

*shrug*

I mean, I'd rather be right and have my play seen as "bad" than have abysmal reads or think Berserker has a real guilty rofl.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Let me guess the conversations tomorrow:

"It's not my fault, he should have just claimed and I would have clarified I didn't have a real guilty."

"It's his own fault for playing in a 'scummy' way, it's not my complete inability to read people correctly beyond random chance."

"Good riddance! Even if he was town, it doesn't matter. Let's go back to being shit at this game while calling what he was doing 'bad'."

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Bersker, you're currently 2/4, but I'm still 3/3 (I'll be generous and not count my own flip for the maths here).

So uh, 50% accuracy vs 100%. I guess you better hope you're right about Caster/Foreigner and I'm way off lol

(I'm not claiming I pushed anything yesterday - it was never my intention to push anything yesterday, just be correct.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

PS: If you honestly believe that Berserker has any sort of guilty on me that could be cleared up with my claim, perhaps you should spend a few more months in Road to Rome before you try thinking about harder games.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Nothing about that was a personal attack. Just a statement of fact.

If you even spent two seconds thinking about it, you'd realise how obvious it is, given Berserker's insistence that I claim, even though I already said nothing about my role would give her a guilty.

Which should tell you she doesn't really have a guilty.

If you don't understand this and can't reason your way to this conclusion, you're probably not well-equipped for a game like this.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You said you don't care about who reads you as what.
But this is contradicted by your consistency and being very upfront.

I like being correct and I dislike seeing incorrect lines of reasoning thrown around. That about sums me up as a mafia player. It's nothing to do with how people are reading me so much as why.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Berserker, I really don't care what your role is.

At best you're making some sort of assumption about something related to a night action last night. That could be anything. You could have a similar ability to my own.

I am pretty sure you're town and am 100% certain you have absolutely nothing that tells you anything about my alignment.

I do think you're horribly misguided in your assumptions. I don't care to clarify the matter.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I play mafia to get to know and learn from people and because I have a minor obsession with discerning the truth.

I'm stepping lightly here.

Isn't that why everyone plays mafia? Other than having something amusing to spend your free time on. If you're just playing for the W/L, you're doing it wrong.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm gonna ask you a point mother fucking blank question.

Are you a fucking Rolecop.

Nope. But this tells me what you think I did. And why you're wrong in your assumption.

I'll clarify something just because you were nice enough to reveal this: I get a copy of something IF that person is something, and I used my role offensively (on a scum read) in an attempt to catch that something. If this doesn't tell you what you need to know, then *shrug*

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Actually there's probably no harm in revealing this: one of my abilities is I get a copy of the investigative results of whoever I target (if they're an investigative role). And I'm using it offensively in an attempt to catch a scum investigative since I'm guessing one still exists.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Actually, I started thinking you have a similar role to me, which was why it was so amusing.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh, I guess it should be obvious from the way I phrased that, but my target did not receive any investigative results last night. And I know that I wasn't roleblocked because I would have received something slightly different if I were. (Whether or not my target was roleblocked, I don't know.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

don't sign up for mafia games if you are going to be like this

"I don't really want to suffer another day of this though."

- Caster, 4 RL days ago

[Servant Moon Cancer]

don't sign up for mafia games if you are going to be like this

"No one ever finds me persuasive; that is why I don't bother."

- Caster, 4 RL days ago

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I was just going back through ISOs and felt like being petty because I had a chuckle when I got there. You can ignore that if you want.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'd compromise on Lancer but based on today's developments I think Caster, Moon Cancer, and Beast are better lynches.

Which 'developments today' led to those three names?

(Preferably an answer with something more than "Berserker's claim")

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Taking a contrary stand against the Shielder elim doesn't look bad on them at all, given the flip.

That is why it's a good thing for scum to do and why I wouldn't give anyone credit just for thinking that Shielder is town (and actually, why I started being more wary of Lancer, because I'm pretty sure there was probably scum somewhere among the voices being contrary). I'm not looking at what he did, but whether I think he really had a good reason to think that.

Do you believe the things he was saying he thought about Shielder?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

From what I remember, the voices being contrary were: Berserker, Lancer, Rider, me. The rest of the game was some mix of iffy to certain, but nobody else really outright called Shielder town. (And Rider is uh... well Rider didn't outright call Shielder town, but Shielder wasn't in Rider's scum pool at least and the reasoning for that was interesting enough that I'm including that name here)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I guess the question for anyone who really cares to think about it is whether or not you believe zero scum thought about having a contrary opinion on Shielder.

(My POE pool is small enough that I sincerely doubt both Lancer and Rider are town outside of this perhaps flimsy reason anyway.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Heh. #2540 would pretty much be my POE pool if I took Rider out.

(I'm considering whether I'm giving Beast too easy a town read but currently thinking Beast is town.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What's your scum pool, Lancer?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If it turns out Assassin was trying to impersonate me in the early game, I'm going to lol

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I kinda don't like the way they talk about my slot, like they're not sure if they want to townread me or not because I'm being heavily scumread, and then today they call me consensus scum pretty confidently.

Is this the only reason you think Saber is scum?

What posts by Caster changed your mind on that read?

And which of Rider's "takes" do you like?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What even prompted that?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Pretty sure when he said playing dumb, he was referring to what he thinks you may have been deliberately ignoring rather than calling what you are actually saying dumb.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Do you have a read on Rider?

Not much has changed since I last talked about it. I could see Rider being town. I don't think Rider has done anything that actually seems town.

(I disagree that scum would never do what Rider did on the last page. My initial instinct when I read that outburst was 'performative'.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Yes, yes, we get it, you have a super secret neighbourhood with Rider and you think Rider is town because of it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I don't really follow what you're saying, Avenger. Or rather, I don't see why you think scum can't do that.

"Sorry, channeled my inner X there" is a pretty common line when you know you overreacted to something? At least, it's more a personality thing than anything else.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If that's not what you're hinting at then I don't really care, Alter Ego.

So...

Why does it bother you? It's not like I'm trying to get rid of Rider.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I haven't used my notes PT today outside of musing about what Berserker might think she knows.

Maybe I'll start again when I

am not lazy

have time to start doing more ISO work.

Still, would be surprised if anyone's ranting has come close to mine in length.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

She's not saying it's literally a masonry. She's saying the progression of the read and the reason for the strength of it is visible in thread.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Alter Ego seems fairly obviously town, though.

Rider doesn't.

Doesn't really matter though, since I don't see a world in which either of them is wagoned in the near future so not an issue for at least a couple day phases probably.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Wow, I'm reading into the blank spaces there and I'm seeing the manual for a beginner's guidebook to playing mafia with friends.

I also feel like I'm maybe being an idiot who's reading too deeply into 2685.

*shrug*

It's not hard to predict how the next couple day phases are going to go, barring flips or some night action changing the course of events.

Nothing to do with anything outside of reading the flow of the game.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

<j>Rider's play seems really town, now that I think about it.</j>

Like that?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

That's OK, I've read that post a couple times now and know which one you're talking about.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

To be fair, most of my notes aren't really notes so much as me just rambling on about stuff, sometimes game-related, sometimes not.

It's more a blog than a notes PT.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

At one point I theorised Cabd was a huge troll who just chose the scum team alphabetically. All the As.

Anything you wrote is probably less embarrassing than that.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Only thing I'd rule out is both being scum.

Interesting, because I started thinking IF they're both scum, they're not in the greatest of positions here and that sort of performance is what they would basically need to do as a distancing act.

(Whether that is or isn't what actually happened, I don't really see any strong negative interaction in those posts.)

(But I'm also pretty set on my POE pool, so I may or may not be biased.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Is this the only reason you think Saber is scum?

It's enough that I'm happy to push Saber and see what he does.

The way you phrased #2602 made it seem like Saber was your strongest scum read rather than a vote-and-see-what-happens read.

Saber, and some combination of you, Beast, and Ruler right now.

Saber isn't part of the "some combination" which made me think it was your strongest scum read.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Pretty sure it's mostly due to the Caster read.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You don't seem to feel too bad about voting off my townread though.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Moon Caster is because of the guilty and the scummy reaction to it.

Uh huh... You think my reaction to what isn't an actual guilty was "scummy"...

Right...

What specifically was "scummy" and why was it "scummy"?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

As far as I am concerned, no claim = guilty.
No claim = scummy.
Just lynch me = scummy.

Your whole attitude was scummy.

Using a blanket term like "scummy" to describe generic things is facile at best and not what I was after when I said specifics.

To be clear though, you're saying you've never seen town refuse to claim? Or in your experience, scum is more likely to refuse to claim?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Also, I'm literally like the first person that claimed an entire aspect of their role in this game (my Noble Phantasm).

You think I refused to claim because I was scared of something? Or what do you think was the scum motivation behind refusing to play along with Berserker?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Even though I literally claimed an entire aspect of my role at the beginning of the game. In my first post. You think I'm scum who was unable to come up with a fake-claim or just didn't plan ahead past outing my Noble Phantasm or what?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Also I've pretty strongly hinted at what the rest of my role does anyway, including outing the fact that one of my abilities makes me ascetic when I use it and a lot of my role is negative utility.

You think I locked myself into that but I was somehow flustered and unable to come up with a fake-claim?

l o l

[Servant Moon Cancer]

My entire role is basically negative utility with potential to blast open the game in a positive way if I use it correctly. I figured my Noble Phantasm had the same potential to someone else since I don't give two shits about it.

Literally me locking myself into my claim early on.

But I somehow struggled to come up with a fake-claim and was flustered.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I never quite understood why you did this in the first place.

It's useless to me. It may have had utility for someone else. I talked about that at some point.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm not saying it gives me any "cred", Saber.

I'm saying literally your reason for thinking I'm scum is that I didn't claim and not claiming is "scummy".

I was the first person in this game to claim an aspect of my role. I've hinted at other aspects of my role, essentially limiting the amount of things I could fake-claim if I were scum. I've explicitly claimed certain parts of my role even prior to the Berserker shenanigans.

Your entire reasoning is flawed.

This isn't about me getting any "cred", it's about you having one of the worst arguments I've ever seen and your entire reason for scum-reading me is based on that so I want to see you acknowledge that.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Cool, it's useless.
Why bring up a useless thing.

Not sure where the disconnect here is. It's useless to me. It may have had utility for someone else. I talked about that at some point.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

There never was a guilty.

But sure, let's play your game.

I have a guilty on you.

Full claim.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

So if it's clear someone isn't claiming a guilty, you won't full claim?

Is that what you're telling me?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

It was and still is pretty clear Berserker had a result on you.

Berserker has already claimed she thinks she'd get a false positive on herself if she did whatever she did last night to herself.

That should tell you how much of a "guilty" it was.

I was never going to claim anything until I knew what she wanted me to claim specifically and why.

That's why I cooperated when she outed the part that she was actually confused about.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Maybe you should just read what I wrote instead of making me repeat it then?

Maybe emphasis would help?

It's useless to

me

.

It may have had utility for

someone else

.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

To be clear, I had zero intention of deliberately charging my noble phantasm or using it at all unless someone says "hey, knowledge of that would help me in some way"

[Servant Moon Cancer]

That's the scummy thing. Town don't need to wait and see.

Town don't need to wait and see why a person wants them to claim?

Are you shitting me?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The conversation (abridged) went:

"Claim"
"Nope"
"Claim"
"Assume I'm not going to until you say why"
"I have a guilty on you"
"No you don't."
"Claim"
"Not co-operating with you until you say why"
"OK die"
"Sure whatever"
some time later
"Are you a rolecop?"
"OK now I see where the confusion came from. I'll claim to clear up the confusion."

[Servant Moon Cancer]

There's plenty of new information in this conversation if you're not too blind to read between the lines.

Let's put this simply: Do you think Saber is unable to read motivations and genuinely thinks about things in black and white terms like that? Do you think he thinks Berserker had a real guilty?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Your simplistic summary is ignoring the meat of the conversation.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Saber has a bigger wagon than Lancer and seems to be in your POE pool, Rider.

Any reason you're not voting or at least commenting on him at the moment?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

You want cred, help me lynch scum.

I found this part pretty funny though.

It's like an "I think I would say this as town" thing.

But he forgot he's voting me.

And that he thinks there's a guilty on me.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm somewhat busy at the moment, but I was thinking about that earlier, both in regards to how D1 played out and today.

I think scum wanted Shielder gone first (just to give breathing room). I think the Archer wagon came basically out of nowhere and _may_ have been entirely town-driven. I remember thinking it came hard and fast, but haven't had time to go back and check the exact timing of it. I don't think this means that scum were piling on Shielder before that, just that they weren't actively pushing anything counter to the Shielder-dies-first-today narrative that was floating around before the Archer wagon popped up. Archer probably wasn't long for the game but they also probably weren't turbo-busing him. The Archer wagon happening as fast as it did (if I'm remembering it correctly) probably somewhat surprised them. (Just stuff I've been pondering without going back and checking the finer details yet.)

As far as today goes, I'm more concerned with figuring out if I'm going wrong somewhere before I try to figure out what scum might be doing. There's a fairly large group of players that most people seem to agree is town. If they are all town, scum need to undermine that somehow but that may not be happening today. (Not making any real conclusions about what I think they're doing until I have some real time to sit down and read. This should be the last day I'm particularly busy for a while though so hopefully soon.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

That question is an interesting one to think about.

(The obvious answer is that he's not thinking about that because neither of us is flipping scum, so he never has to reconcile the two scum reads.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Did you actually want to talk to me about any of that spoiler stuff, Alter Ego, or can I just ignore it?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

It's probably easier just to point out that you have some correct guesses about my general play style and the confidence I used to have in my own ability to solve games. This is more of a get-back-on-the-horse game than anything, so while aspects of how I used to play might shine through, I don't actually know if I can correctly solve this game, even if I had more time to read. I'm trying to find my bearing again. This day phase has not been great for free time, unfortunately. I keep forgetting this is game has a 7-day deadline too.

I've been considering just dumping some of the free flow analysis I'd normally keep caged in the PT here since I wanna do some ISO work today.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

@Alter Ego, I should also mention I thoroughly enjoy playing mind games with people, so it's only appropriate to post the following. It is 100% true self analysis, but well... it is what it is. (If you care enough in post-game or after my flip to remember this, you're free to verify it for yourself.)

Subtly encouraging bad ideas is probably a good way to describe how I normally play scum - I like it when town implodes in on itself with little direct liability. And ending up, for example, at the bottom of Assassin's town list is _exactly_ the place I like to be as scum. Not too town that people wonder why I'm still around later, that sweet spot.

But uh, as pointless as it might be to say this in an anonymous game, there's a fair few things I've done here that I would never do as scum. I'm risk-averse scum and I tend not to say or do things that have a potential risk of backfiring,

even if

they have a larger potential payoff. Being as standoffish as I've been today is _probably_ a good indicator I'm not scum - at least, in my memory, I've never done that as scum, and blowing that kind of potential meta manipulation in an anonymous game against players who can't even meta me is uh... also not my style.



Anyway, time to ISO-dive.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I should probably mention, my final assessment of Shielder was basically: there are things that I think Shielder v2 said, both to me and about the game in general, that I think made very little sense as scum and that far outweighs the issues I still had with what Shielder v1 did, to the point where if I squint, I could maybe see Shielder v1 just being newbie town who thinks entirely different from me about the game.

Actually the shorter summary of my thoughts on Shielder v2 were: ass-backwards play but still probably town.

At the end of Shielder v2's tenure here, my biggest issue was that I was pretty damn certain she was fake-claiming about the master-upgrade aspect of her role, which uh... was true? I don't understand what she was trying to achieve, I was just pretty sure she was lying about it. That was why I was pretty adamant about people claiming that (to verify my theory that no one else had anything similar to what she was claiming) and also why I basically immediately 180d the read when Shielder v3 claimed it was entirely untrue and she had the standard master-upgrade.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Like, I'm pretty sure you could follow this trajectory™ from stuff I was saying in thread.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Most trademarks were probably words before I was born.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Mooncancer, weren't you pushing me to scum read Saber.
That sounds fairly in line with what you just said about your scum game.

I don't think I did that to you?

I know I'm pretty sure I said something like that to Rider though, mostly because I was interested in the reasons Rider had for choosing to vote or not vote among his scum pool.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh, you mean my comments about whether Saber was being genuine? For what it's worth, I am still thinking about that.

I didn't have time to read the game last night but I DID have time to muse about certain things I remembered reading.

Saber has very rigid reasoning for the way he's supposedly thinking about things and I'm still trying to figure out if that's just because he is that type of player or if he's just using it as an excuse to avoid analysing intent.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I think it's interesting, for example, that he said he had a town read on Shielder, despite the lying about the claim stuff - I think "lied about claim, therefore scum" is in line with the rigid thinking I'd expect from Saber and he never talked about his Shielder town read that he supposedly had IIRC (gonna check soon), so that stands out as weird if he really did think Shielder was town.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I thought Ruler *might* be scum just due to the fact nobody was trying to steer it towards him but based on play, not really seeing it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The same as I did before. I don't think he's done any real analysis (beyond the stuff I called "rigid" which is just... easy, not really an attempt to figure out motivations). The towniest stuff he's done so far is appeals lol - I'm weak to the whole "I've done all I can - it's up to you guys!!" approach even though I know it's not really a town approach.

I thought Saber v1 was OK but the towniest thing he did was the eureka moment but there was no followup to that.

Actually was hoping he'd claim just because I have some theories about what scum are going to claim in this game.

TL;DR is he's still in my POE pool, I just don't have 100% confidence on the read.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Also, re: the last minute eureka moment, I don't really believe he thought what he did about it unless he was sure scum picked up on it too? But considering he apparently only saw it at the last minute, it seems a bit of a stretch for him to suddenly go "oh!!! scum were definitely avoiding avenger" particularly when he was scum-reading avenger outside of that? That whole thing is a bit off the more I think about it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

The idea of trying to trap people who were avoiding voting Avenger only really works if all the people who were both avoiding voting Avenger and scum were doing it for the reason he thought they were doing it. But unless you think Avenger is town (he didn't at the time) and scum noticed it (he didn't until the last minute apparently), it's a fruitless avenue to explore outside of making note of it and coming back to it later if Avenger is town (from his POV). But he never really ended up doing anything with it anyway.

TBH I might just be wrong about Ruler seeming town purely due to POE (haven't really looked at whether I can construct a team that makes sense based on interactions that doesn't include him). But I suppose I'll talk about what I think he's said that was town in a bit.

It's mostly small things though that I doubt will convince anyone to change their mind. e.g. I thought Ruler v2 getting upset about being called deadweight scum (that ended with him saying "baby is good scum") was probably genuine and something I'm not sure he makes a point of as scum. I also got the opposite impression that Alter Ego seems to have gotten about his interactions with her seeming off. I need to go for a walk, I'll probably read and think along the way, but won't really be posting as much for an hour because I cbf changing my MS account on my phone.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Does Ruler know he was loverised? Don't see mention of it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

To be fair, I don't think it's the worst use case if Caster was assuming they'd be wagoned today.

And Ruler hasn't exactly been around much anyway.

Also doesn't really tell us much since literally no one tried wagoning Caster today but that may not have anything to do with the ability and just to do with the way the day started and the way Assassin's been voting...

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If if happened to me, I would have outed it if I thought it came from scum. Basically depends on his Caster read whether it even matters (I doubt it does). I am mildly surprised he hasn't at least talked about Caster in some manner though.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

They either need to die before it becomes an issue, or just always assume it's a lylo scenario if the game could be ended via them being NKed. (e.g. 6:3 should be treated as a potential lylo).

Not a huge issue at the moment, and I'm considering the benefit of leaving them alive. If they're both town, I figure scum probably has to gamble on whether or not Ruler's role can screw them over in some way if they wanna gamble on making people paranoid.

Depends on whether people think Ruler is scum or town though.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I am probably going to be around until the deadline.

(And am obviously pretty willing to vote Saber.)

Actually, this probably just saves me from having to do the reread I was planning on to make sure I got the Saber read right. I don't really believe the claim for a number of reasons; it looking like something scum

could

have isn't the biggest issue - it's more about the synergy of it. e.g. I don't believe he's a strongman vs an attribute with the only active ability he has being the NP, and that the NP is limited to even nights on top of that. Also, if I had that first/second ability tied in with that NP, I'd have made assumptions about what it means for the "man" attribute, but no mention of that. And finally, that upgrade is like... not what I was expecting when Saber v1 wrote:

My upgrade's pretty nice

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm trying to look beyond that, but yes.

I have an ability that makes me ascetic if I choose to use it (but it has an auxiliary effect if I choose to use it).

I probably won't be using it, but I reckon there are probably red herrings like that in a bunch of PMs.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Though the ability on its lonesome should probably be cause for concern, because I expect the red herrings, if active abilities, are probably similar in some way to my own. (e.g. I don't *just* become ascetic and I would have expected he doesn't *just* become a ninja if it was a real town ability - it's inelegant.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I mean, what does tracker/watcher immunity help with, there? He's not using night actions on anyone.

Yes, this is part of what I was referring to with my comment about synergy. It feels like stuff is being left out, obviously.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

as starting to increasingly dislike the way moon cancer has been approaching the last couple of phases

*shrug*

I've had much less free time to do things in mafia game during this day phase. I really still do have a lot of reading I want to do that I haven't gotten done yet.

Though I do want to make clear that I currently don't think Ruler is scum and I currently do think Lancer makes a decent amount of sense as scum.

I'm still not entirely sure on who makes the most sense as a fourth (even though I want it to be Rider just to make things simple). I could just be incorrect on my Ruler read I suppose, but I do think there are certain things he's said and done that are less likely to come from scum than town.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Things on my to-do list:

- shore up Ruler read
- properly read through Lancer/Rider/Beast

Also, with Beast's unvote, Saber's at L-2.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm much less controlling of my scum mates than you might expect when I'm scum. I don't like telling other people what to do; I just give them hints and suggestions and explain why my way of thinking is (probably) correct. If they still do something nonsensical, then uh... oh well, I adapt.

But really, if you think my overall play here makes sense as scum, then uh... I'm not sure what to tell you.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

It's very tempting to hammer with something to the effect of "HAHA, good work guys, can't believe these idiots let me off with a guilty on me!!!"

Hmm.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Saber would probably support Lancer claiming too, may she rest in peace.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

That was more poking fun at Saber's stance on claims than a serious remark.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'd prefer not ending the day before Ruler checks in (though if this drags out for like 48 hours without him turning up then whatever).

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'm pretty sure he means he thinks scum have the ability to neighbourise someone as a counter to the PT cop ability.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Well, rather that it was a potential counter to the ability.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

#2837 suggests that's not the case.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

If Ruler is the final scum, I'm just disappointed that mafia in general these days seems to be more "solve by post count" than town doing anything particularly outstanding.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Though on that note, if Ruler does show up and does claim to you, make sure he claims actions too, if any.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Nobody is really waiting on Lancer to say something, and if Ruler doesn't show up in like, the next 16 hours (which is 96 hours if you include the night phase in which he apparently didn't talk to Caster), then just be done with it.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Did you action last night?

And how much of the game have you read?

(Also, should go without saying, but if you do happen to be town, can you be a bit more active than showing up once every 5 days?)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'd prefer Ruler answer whether he actioned last night beforehand, but it's not super necessary to know and I don't know when he'll rock up again in the near future so *shrug* whatever.

Just know that _if_ I happen to die tonight, as unlikely as it may be, I had a reason for wanting to know that.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Oh.

Nah, I forced Ruler to repeat whatever actions he took N2 (including no action if he took no action).

It was unblockable and also took precedence over any other action that wasn't of the same category.

So basically unless someone wants to claim responsibility for the lack of kill last night, it was probably that.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Any actions, as far as I'm aware. Including Noble Phantasms, regardless of their charges.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Also that night post was totally a feint for me not being able to do anything that night.

You know, if I were scum and saw town-Beast's post in thread, I'd assume Beast has an entirely harmless role.

This is why I like sticking to half-truths and unspoken lies.

If you're too direct, you make your goals obvious.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Slightly disappointed to see the "guilty" was just that I used an investigative action. *shrug*

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Actually, I think I thought Alter Ego might be Tammy at the time I wrote that, and then I started thinking it was ffery and then ffery said something about recent games and I was like "wait, maybe it's not ffery" and then I went back to: Alter Ego, who shall hence forth be referred to as "the ffery clone" or "I can't believe it's not ffery, the ffery substitute"

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Obligatory "neener neener neener" at muffin for thinking I was scum <3

Honestly, I never even got around to re-reading your posts. I got so lazy with it, I just stuck with whatever POE list I had D1 and never really bothered to check my thinking on you because it didn't matter.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I think I even said something to that effect in thread: "until I get something wrong, not gonna bother thinking about it" or something like that.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

From my POV, after putting Shielder/Caster in the town pile, it was basically just "figure out which of the Ruler/Rider/Lancer/Saber pile I'm wrong about because one of them has to be town" but it didn't actually matter so *shrug*

[Servant Moon Cancer]

What were the scum upgrades anyway?

(I still don't think 10:3 with a head start on associations is all that bad a concept, even if electing a town player was probably theoretically better in most cases.)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I just want to point out, btw, that I never once voted a town player in this game. Or any player at all, but it sounds better if I just say I never once voted a town player.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I started town-reading you due to your reaction to me thinking you're scum.

That's about it.

I thought the reasoning for your Lancer push very early on was pretty bad and uh... overly drawn out? But maybe it's because there seemed to be obvious differences between Avenger/Berserker.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

but i can't wait to see those posts in postgame lmao

in the spirit of this game i can't say anything but lol i would love to see it

This stuff mostly. Read natural and not what I think you'd have written as scum.

Actually a similar reason to why I reversed my read on Shielder, with the disclaimer that I was about 99% sure Shielder v2 was lying about the "with a master" upgrade and it was throwing me through a loop until Shielder v3 came in and clarified it was just the normal upgrade.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

it was just very funny you were threatening to meta-profile me, because, well, good luck going through 8 year old games i guess?

TBH I didn't even know who you were. I guessed incorrectly based on like 30 seconds of looking up something in particular. I was never gonna do that, I was too

lazy

time-starved to even read the posts in this game, let alone another one.