Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[Iecerint]

Leia is town. I am weirded out at people complaining about RVS when RVS ended on page 4. In particular, NPOM's "RVS is evil" comment is dissonant with his having already posted reads. Additionally, I think the post is defensive about being voted + trying to blend in as a response to that, which I think are scummy reactions to scrutiny.

VOTE: NPOM

[Iecerint]

@Mod: My vote is missing

Fixed

[Iecerint]

Catching up

[Iecerint]

I don't think anything they [Leia] have done is alignment indicative.

I saw their early posts as evidence of scumhunting. It seemed like they were making saliently bad but superficially well-reasoned cases. My guess is that town would be more likely to notice that the cases were bad, because town are more motivated to actually evaluate if someone is scumhunting. This pattern kinda faded away as we got farther from their first posts, though.

[Iecerint]

i cc raving lunatic

Kinda surprised by this because IIRC IKS softly endorsed one of Leia's such posts ala above.

[Iecerint]

Dripping Goofball makes a lot of sense to me, I think that's worth a sheep.

VOTE: Princess Leia

I know it's slightly in-optimal for me right now, but it's a long term investment.

Goes along with Leia voting in favor of the NAI view of Leia's slot.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: Leia

I am done with the self importance.

I am curious about what was going through Titus's mind at the time of this vote.

[Iecerint]

I do not understand all the TiphaineDeath votes on page 16.

[Iecerint]

339 is satire. Some of youse are scum reading Leia for having fun and some others of y'all are scum reading TD for something nai.

I think Leia is scummy as of this point in my readthrough because I think she switched from legitimate (albeit unconventional) scumhunting early on to zany, distracting behavior after people starting saying "she's so zany it is NAI." In other words, rather than being a "random" change, it seemed like people making that interpretation led to a change in her behavior. I interpret the change as based on self-preservation at the cost of scumhunting => scummy.

But, I think I am maybe alone in thinking her behavior ever changed, or at least I don't see that anyone else commented on it. It occurred to me at the same time that Titus voted Leia, but Titus said the vote was for other reasons (e.g., a response to the zaniness itself) and has repeated this a few times, so. I had wondered if she had picked up on the change from before a few posts ago, but I think she's already attended to it enough times in-thread.

[Iecerint]

339 is satire. Some of youse are scum reading Leia for having fun and some others of y'all are scum reading TD for something nai.

I think Leia is scummy as of this point in my readthrough because I think she switched from legitimate (albeit unconventional) scumhunting early on to zany, distracting behavior after people starting saying "she's so zany it is NAI." In other words, rather than being a "random" change, it seemed like people making that interpretation led to a change in her behavior. I interpret the change as based on self-preservation at the cost of scumhunting => scummy.

But, I think I am maybe alone in thinking her behavior ever changed, or at least I don't see that anyone else commented on it. It occurred to me at the same time that Titus voted Leia, but Titus said the vote was for other reasons (e.g., a response to the zaniness itself) and has repeated this a few times, so. I had wondered if she had picked up on the change from before a few posts ago, but I think she's already attended to it enough times in-thread.

[Iecerint]

I think NPOM (and to an extent TPhaine) are both playing emotionally reactive games after being prodded by Leia/Pooky.

My own suspicions for not thinking NPOM is scum, relate to the flavour of my role, and his desire to pretty much be killed regardless. Also, look at #292.
I have a hunch about the game mechanics, based on my role and flavor. The question I have asked of NPOM, T, and Looker are directly related to trying to figure if my assumption is correct or not.

1. His #292 doesn't match "I'm outguessing the mod."
2. "I'm outguessing the mod" doesn't match what you've been posting for the past 10 pages.

[Iecerint]

I think there is not prerequisite for entering this game.

[Iecerint]

I have hacked the system °˖✧◝(⁰▿⁰)◜✧˖°

Lavender, this post shows that you are reading the game.

Tell me what you think about the game.

[Iecerint]

@Pisskop, what made you change your mind about Leia/TD?

[Iecerint]

Iecerint, can you show me where you think that Leila were scum hunting.

Specifically, I remember thinking that Leia's post 76 was scumhunting disguised as "joke" scumhunting.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: Leia

I am done with the self importance.

I am curious about what was going through Titus's mind at the time of this vote.

During my speed reading of Titus I didn't have any trouble figuring out what it meant.
Do you want the outsider's view or wait for her to explain it herself? Or perhaps you can read some context clues.

I would be interested to hear your perspective at this point. She ended up saying more about it multiple times later in the thread, so it's not as useful for her to explain it herself (i.e., I have a lower suspicion that she would give new information because she has already said a lot about it).

Tbh I'm less interested in this bit atm. I think I might have had an idiosyncratic experience of Leia's early posts that I overvalued and projected. But, that's what my mind was doing at the time.

[Iecerint]

Drawing a blank on who it is I've seen use those elaborate ascii art / extended emoji / whatever you call 'em.

To the best of my understanding, Lavender isn't an alt, but rather is actually a newer player. My hypothesis is that she might be personal friends with Baker outside the site.

[Iecerint]

TOWN

Iecerint
TiphaineDeath
A50
Titus
Doctor Drew
Pooky
a2rudeboy aka Hypnotoad
Galron
Pisskop
Gamma
BrightEyed
Starbuck
Princess Leia/REPLACEMENT

Lavender
Nono

Looker
DGB
IKS
Walter
Bambi
NPOM

SCUM

[Iecerint]

Wait who did davesaz replace

[Iecerint]

Oh, he's Leia.

That slot moves up to just below Pooky.

[Iecerint]

Is that addressed to me? I don't think he's scummy. I think he's townie. When I realized he was Leia's slot, I moved the slot up 6 levels.

I think he's townie because I think he is approaching the game like someone who wants to solve it.

[Iecerint]

TOWN

Iecerint
TiphaineDeath
A50
Titus
Doctor Drew
Pooky
a2rudeboy aka Hypnotoad
Galron
Pisskop
Gamma
BrightEyed
Starbuck
Princess Leia/REPLACEMENT

Lavender
Nono

Looker
DGB
IKS
Walter
Bambi
NPOM

SCUM

uhhhh

REASONS?

I'm happy to answer specific questions you have. You can see my thoughts from the posts I made as I caught up with the game.

[Iecerint]

I don't get the Looker read with so little content. Actually, without some explanations, this entire list looks fishy. Someone made a point of saying how can you have reads on 20 players. I subscribe to that. I'll ask what's your process here?

pedit: Ninja'd

1. I copy-pasted the list from page 1
2. I went through each player and divided them into TOWN NULL SCUM WHO? lists
3. I read the iso of everyone in WHO and tried to put them into TOWN or SCUM.
4. I read the iso of everyone in NULL and tried to put them in TOWN or SCUM.
5. I re-ordered all players within each category from town to scum. So, after this, the entire list is ordinal.
6. I posted the result.

Looker was NULL and then placed into SCUM in step 4. I placed him there because he posts and does not scumhunt. IIRC he's close to the null side of the SCUM section. He does have a post where he says something like "people are bored I think" (one of his last ones) which felt vaguely town, which accounts for the weaker read (not to mention that there's not much content, as you say).

I think most of the rationale for my reads should be pretty clear from reading my catch-up posts (with exceptions for a few players like Looker).

[Iecerint]

At this point- the only way i can see NPOM getting taken out is lynch or Vig.

Uh. So he CAN be shredded, even via your /outguess?

[Iecerint]

This is really distracting. You're being really vague, but I do not understand why you are being vague. Then it makes me want to be really roundabout about it, because I infer you're being vague for a reason. But if I read into your posts correctly, it seems like there's no reason to be vague about this.

[Iecerint]

Let me just put it this way.

ASSUMPTION: Even in bastard games, the fundamental structure of mafia is present (e.g., uninformed majority vs informed minority, and the day-execution is the main tool to manage the informed minority).

1A. I really really don't think a mod would put a jester into a large theme. It has too high a risk of ending the game before N1, which is contrary to the mod's goal when making a large game (which is to have a longer game with more players).
1B. If there IS a jester in a large game, let's shred the jester so that the mod can learn their lesson.
2A. Phantom Saul/Judas /outguess should not preclude shredding scummy players
2B. If players (like Rudeboy, in my psychic reality -- though maybe it was not his intent) DO propose phantom Saul/Judas set-up /outguess, it's probably because they infer they are in a Saul/Judas dyad. In that case, either they are town (and then they SHOULD want us to shred the other one, so they're hedging their bets and shouldn't be taken seriously), or they are scum (and shouldn't be taken seriously).
3. Scum are not unlimited-shot shredproof (cf., Assumption above). So, if NPOM is shredproof, it's worth shredding him if he's scum, because he's N-shot shredproof.

This is why I think that Rudeboy's allusions should not preclude a NPOM shredding.

[Iecerint]

@they may have thrown
why are following players in your list on positions they are in?
Galron, Pisskop, Walter, DGB, NPOM, iecerint, starbucks.

Galron: I townread him for his 339. This was his "people are attacking Leia and TD for NAI" post. He was the only one saying that kind of thing at the time.

Pisskop: I actually scumread him on his initial replace-in, but I didn't trust my scumread because I townread him (when he was scum) in our last game we played together (Baker's last game, now completed). His play in this game IS different from that game, so I wondered if I needed to turn my readhead upside-down. Then, I realized that the difference was mostly caused by his having replaced in, and I wondered if I needed to have my readhead put back. When I read his replace-in posts a couple more times (during my initial readthrough I paused and read his catch-up a couple of times), I eventually decided he was town. IIRC at first I was puzzled by a dissonant read he listed, which led to a scumread, but I was able to figure it out when I read it a second or third time. So, this one had a lot of back-and-forth mostly based on his replace-in posts. Overall, he has seemed like he wants to solve the game.

Walter: Went into my NULL pile originally and then re-sorted to scum when I read his iso and realized that (at that time) he had posted no content whatsoever while also having a fair number of posts. This differentiated him from someone like Lavender. He went lower on the list than Looker because Looker had a handful of townie-seeming posts in his iso.

DGB: I usually have a really strong townread on DGB when she is town. I don't have a really strong townread on DGB. I put her directly into scum without having to sort her from NULL. Also, I am surprised that she has totally ignored NPOM, because I would expect her to really focus on the whole "set-up outguessing" premise that Rudeboy mentioned, since she usually crusades against this kind of thing (e.g., the same Baker game that was just completed -- in that game, it was about "oh maybe this 3p will be townie" that she crusaded against, but it's a similar overprivileging of /outguess over scumhunting). But, it's more the former than the latter, because I think that associative tells are usually not helpful D1.

NPOM: This should be obvious; most of my iso is about NPOM. He made multiple early scumtells and his posts since then have been either brazenly without scumhunting, or fake scumhunting (e.g., posting a readslist that lists Leia when at that point Dave had replaced in and been active for awhile). [INB4 He posts pointing out that I did the same thing in my reads post but.] The main case for not shredding him is that Rudeboy says he's *possibly* a phantom jester (or some other shred-shenanigans role).

Iecerint: I embody the Iecerint.

Starbuck: I just think she's town. Prolly because she saw the thread the same way as me for a lot of the game I think. Townread has gotten stronger from content since I posted my readslist.

[Iecerint]

I want lecerint to psycho analysis me too.

I kinda had a weak town gutread on you while reading the thread, but nothing worth commenting on. Then people started calling you scum around the time of the end of my readthrough. So I put you in NULL because I wanted to read your iso before I made a decision. When I read your iso, it did seem like you were active but not scumhunting (similar to what some people were alluding to). I think I had been weakly townreading you because your style is pretty light/breezy. So then I put you in scum. Your noise/signal ratio was unusually high, so I put you lower on the list. I've never played with you haven't meta'd you yet.

[Iecerint]

I think [Iecerint's] answer in 931 was odd in that [Iecerint] had extended commentary for each one of [IKS's] selected players.

What do you mean by "odd"? How is "extended commentary," either in general or as reflected in my post, related to "oddness"?

[Iecerint]

I think [Iecerint's] answer in 931 was odd in that [Iecerint] had extended commentary for each one of [IKS's] selected players.

What do you mean by "odd"? How is "extended commentary," either in general or as reflected in my post, related to "oddness"?

Having deep reads on 19 players just a few days into a 20-player large is extraordinary. For IKS to seemingly pick seven random players, and you able to come up with extended reads a little more than an hour later on all seven is, well, unusual. Now, one of the players was yourself, so it wasn't really extended reads on seven players, and IKS has since, coincidentally, also addressed my question (in 927 -- explaining how he came up with the list of players), but you have come up with an extended read of Bambi since. I find the whole effort commendable. I'm curious as to why you didn't just put those reads into your list to begin with?

1. That's not the intuitive meaning of "odd."
2. Thanks I guess.
3A. Way too many words (especially in a post where the intention is to summarize the effect of my catch-up). No one would read that shit.
3B. I actually did briefly work on a post that had explanations within a spoiler'd button, but decided against it after I'd done 1-2 people in an extended way like that, because I realized that no one was going to read that shit.
3C. Now at least a couple of them may be read.

[Iecerint]

I dunno what "deep reads" means, though. Like, my list is ordinal. The top is most town, the bottom is least town. The town folks near the NULL section are progressively weaker townreads.

[Iecerint]

I mean, it seems like he's claiming that it wasn't a push at all? I'm waiting for him to say more.

[Iecerint]

Well if they were in last game I'm guessing they're waiting until Goofball bites the dust. Or they aren't gonna pull an Alch and make their wincon unwinnable by revealing too early.

Wait, are you an alt, or did you just watch/read the last game?

[Iecerint]

WTF

[Iecerint]

Do they always play in these respective ways? Have you played with them under both accounts?

[Iecerint]

Bambi Jay identity is mostly scum in completed large games from what I can tell, so it's hard to do a decent meta dive. Play as Near (looks like Town, the one example I found) in DeathNote shows high engagement and lots of participation in set-up speculation, but that's probably caused by being Near in DeathNote. As scum they tend to start kinda like this (though they're a little breezier than is typical in this game I think) and shift more into Elsa-posting/split object relations near endgame.

Not a super useful meta dive. Maybe I missed some games.

[Iecerint]

@Mod, please update OP with replacements when you're set.

[Iecerint]

It makes sense in hindsight, but did not occur to me until it was pointed out to me. I had read the thread assuming you were not related to Elsa in any way.

I think you did allude to a non-alt account during the last Baker game (as Elsa, in the context of my asking if it was an alt account with a deliberately abrasive style), but I don't remember what you said that account was named, and I still can't remember specifically whether Bambi was that account, or if it was a third account.

[Iecerint]

I also never saw your sig til now. XD

[Iecerint]

It is accurate on the lack of action. Not the scum part though.

What is the meaning of your inaction?

[Iecerint]

Titus, have you played with A50 previously?

[Iecerint]

They've played more than once with me in the playerlist, why?

I think A50 is very different here relative to in Redneck Mafia, where he was a traitor. It's related to my townread on A50. Since Titus alluded to coming back to the site recently, I thought she might not have experience with A50. But, it sounds like she has more experience than I do.

[Iecerint]

Elaborate [on DD's idea that NPOM is scummy but should not be lynched].

Rudeboy has vaguely implied that we "don't want to," while also it's not because NPOM is town. He's said this is based on inference from the flavor.

[Iecerint]

Also, can you quote the Death case for me? I didn't catch it when I skimmed through and it's too late for me to try to find it again. I need to crash.

IIRC it was more like "Your [sic] annoying vote: TD" than like a case and happened right when people started to call Leia a troll (so it looked to me like Leia was playing into what people were saying about her at that point), but for some reason it led half the active players to vote TD. Part of it was that TD was like "I will try to scumhunt in this game" and then everyone was like "lol vote: TD." This was in the mid-teens.

[Iecerint]

My last post was @starbuck galrond.

This looks like you spelled Galron's name wrong intentionally which would in theory make us think you and Galron are less likely to be scum together, but in this case I don't see how you honestly make that spelling error.

This is very possibly failed distancing and a Tiphaine + Galron team.

Yeah, I am 1000% done with this. VOTE: Leia

this is a solid point

VOTE: TDeath

i can smell the fear from TDeath

he hasn't replied yet

VOTE: Tiphaine

I had a feeling he would omgus. I'm finally onto something solid!!

I am actually also 100% ok with me dying so I don't have to listen to either of those two anymore xD.

[Iecerint]

More case than I remembered I guess. But, in context it is not intended to be taken seriously, and in context TD is annoyed because he has been trying to actually scumhunt.

[Iecerint]

IIRC Titus made a post where she was upset that someone meta'd her "just after I came back, so of course it was different, that's just the way it goes" or something like that. That's what led me to think that.

[Iecerint]

Weakest Link isn't my only town game since I've been back and frankly, I'm not sure why my first game back on site (after like 3 or 4 years) is the one you're going to anyways if you're going to meta. I was getting back used to things, so of course, now that I've been back about 4 months, it's not going to be similar. That's just how it goes.

Yeah, I was thinking of your post. Oop.

[Iecerint]

I feel like rudeboy has some insider info that we should trust since I don't believe scum would stick their neck out for a buddy so directly.

RudeboyTown does not entail RudeboyCorrect.

[Iecerint]

I watched that catchup in real time and noticed that he was head down on the catchup and failing to notice my replies on material later than the catchup point. That implies a much higher degree of attention being spent than a quick read.

Titus is town. Unsure of davesaz.

Is his assessment of your catch-up accurate?

[Iecerint]

Most of the wagons have been abs shite.

Then why do you join them?

[Iecerint]

NoPowerOverMe (1): Iecerint

These all need explaining or movement as well.

1. This has been explained in like half my iso.
2. My reads are mostly unchanged since page ~30. My #2 is probably Walter right now, based on his facile approach to the IKS wagon, and NPOM's attitude toward IKS. IKS meta could have a big effect on this.

[Iecerint]

I watched that catchup in real time and noticed that he was head down on the catchup and failing to notice my replies on material later than the catchup point. That implies a much higher degree of attention being spent than a quick read.

Titus is town. Unsure of davesaz.

Is his assessment of your catch-up accurate?

I'm talking about your catchup.

Oh. OK, nvm, that makes more sense.

[Iecerint]

And iceprint is TRing him?

TRing?

[Iecerint]

Does IKS just roll scum every game?

Is this you signaling that you are trying to evaluate his meta?

If so, what did you find when you did so?

[Iecerint]

IKS has no completed games. That was fast. <_<

[Iecerint]

And iceprint is Townreading [him]?

Eh. I'm conflicted about him. I think his pattern of engaging with the game has included testing motivations, which I think is a towntell. He has also made posts that (I perceive as) being motivated to reduce noise, which is another towntell. On the other hand, when he does the former, my sense is that he's mainly focused on whether he gets buy-in from everyone, rather than whether the finding affects his reads. For example, when he cast vague suspicion on me, but then people pointed out that his premise was bogus, he simply dropped it, but he did not engage with people who pointed out that his premise was bogus or revisit this. I think the pattern of thinking about motivations feels town, but how it ends up playing out feels kinda scummy.

This kind of pattern is one that can usually allow alignment to be discerned later in the game, because the pattern of engagement and following-up is modified by associative information if the player is scum. So, between being conflicted about Galron and feeling confident his playstyle will betray him if he's scum, I don't think he's the best shred today.

By contrast, your playstyle and IKS's playstyle doesn't lend itself to "self-correction" in this way. Of the two of you, I think you are more likely to be scum, based on meta+scumtells+how players have responded to both of you.

Right now I think I want to shred in NPOM/IKS/Walter. Players who I think might be scum but I don't particularly want to shred include Galron/DGB/Lavender/Bambi. This is based on the above for Galron, and based on affection for the others.

[Iecerint]

[Him in the quoted NPOM post above = Galron]

[Iecerint]

How did you go from townreading him to being conflicted?

Read the paragraph that starts "I'm conflicted about him" to get the answer to your question. Or, ask a more specific question if part of it isn't clear to you.

Or is it just because rude posted a case?

Rudeboy doesn't figure into it. I'm aware that Rudeboy has said that his only votes for today will be Galron or one other player (I forgot who), but I didn't otherwise have a sense of his thoughts. I looked at it in response to your question. I think it's facile. Someone else posted something else that I think is also kinda facile, can't remember who.

Starbuck has posted some stuff about Galron that jives with my POV.

[Iecerint]

my push on Iecerint, which was just as much a push on IKS as it was on Iecerint

Huh? I'm reading this as about your posts about finding my reads "interesting"/"incredible." Are you talking about that, or something else?

[Iecerint]

(I'd be fine with TD's slot being V/LA for a week (so he doesn't have to replace out) given that night is coming up.)

[Iecerint]

I just pressed the quote button and submitted. Blame the site not me.

You quoted my post, not Galron's. It's clear because I modified a pronoun to make the context clearer in the one I quoted, hence the brackets.

[Iecerint]

my bad then.

What were you doing such that you made the post that way?

[Iecerint]

@chkflp:

A. Regarding NPOM's alignment, I think he is scum based on:

1. Scumslips in game (cf., an allusion to idiosyncratic mod communication).
2. Active lurking as a response to scrutiny (rather than scumhunting or outrage)
3. Switching to facile "scumhunting" after players started to point out that he was not scumhunting (e.g., Galron's comment about NPOM's quoted thing on this page is related to NPOM doing stuff LIKE that repeatedly and reflects that it has been an ongoing pattern).

Tbf there is pretty broad agreement in thread that NPOM is scum to scummy (I think BrightEyedFish is the main exception that comes to mind). The main reason NOT to shred NPOM has nothing to do with NPOM, and is instead based on how much credence you give to Rudeboy outguessing the mod. Here's all of Rudeboy's posts about this topic:

Spoiler:

NPOM- you don't care about being voted.

Are there other people in the game who are aware of your role flavour?

Gamma- I have my reasons.

And I highly suggest everyone unvote NPOM

I'm telling you guys. You don't want to lynch NPOM

Anyone fancy a good ol' fashioned massclaim?

if locktown is a band. it is a ska band, and i have dibs on drummer/

once more, get those votes off NPOM

Clarification- Not protecting NPOM. Information and a hunch makes me think there are more beneficial people to lynch.

And it is connected to why I'm saying don't vote NPOM, and why I asked looker the same question.

I think NPOM (and to an extent TPhaine) are both playing emotionally reactive games after being prodded by Leia/Pooky.

My own suspicions for not thinking NPOM is scum, relate to the flavour of my role, and his desire to pretty much be killed regardless. Also, look at #292.
I have a hunch about the game mechanics, based on my role and flavor. The question I have asked of NPOM, T, and Looker are directly related to trying to figure if my assumption is correct or not.

If you get lynched, and it verifies my assumptions, I still can't tell if that's positive or negative.

If only there was a way for someone to not care, give up, get lynched, and win...

god damn NPOM. you reaaaalllly aren't doing yourself any favors. which makes me think my assumption is more correct.

So, Rudeboy has basically been implying that based on his flavor he thinks NPOM is a jester, so we shouldn't lynch him. (In some of his posts he broadens this hypothesis to thinking that it's a role with an idiosyncratic response to being shredded more generally, but most of his posts imply jester.)

Now, I DO think that there's something that Rudeboy is reacting to, and that a person who is looking at whatever he's seeing can understand what it is. The reason for this is that apparently multiple players in the game (e.g., Looker and TiphaineDeath) are connected to it (cf., Rudeboy's posts above saying as much). The other players have not engaged with Rudeboy around this really, but they would have obviously said "lolno" if Rudeboy were totally fabricating whatever he's reacting to. So, I don't think that Rudeboy is fabricating it.

But COME ON. There's not a jester in a large game! There just isn't! That's not the kind of "bastard" that 2020 "bastard" mods put in large games. Micros, sure. Minis, maybe. Large? No way! If it does end up getting used, the mechanic either doesn't come into play, or it ends the game in an anticlimax! It's a silly idea to think about (e.g., in the sense "Oh man, wouldn't it be hilarious if the large game ended with a jester win. LOL!"), but it's not a thing that actually happens, because of the attitude that mods take toward their games. Further, as the day has gone on and players started to comment on NPOM not scumhunting, instead of continuing with his active lurking behavior and garnering votes, he started with the "fake scumhunting" pattern I described above, and that Galron alludes to on this page (e.g., because it's part of a pattern). So, over time, his behavior has diverged farther from the "jester" formulation and closer to the "blending in/meeting needs so as not be scumread"/scummy pattern.

B. Regarding why I am voting NPOM, regardless of what I think about his alignment/hints that now is not the time for a vanity wagon, etc:

1. I am honestly still optimistic that we could shred him, because I think his behavior continues to evidence a scum alignment and players continue to post that they recognize it, even though at the time that you quoted me I was voting him alone.
2. I think he's the most likely scum.
3. The difficulty of his wagon despite the rhetoric against him further supports his likely scum alignment (this is partially explain-awayable by Rudeboy's phantom jester).
4. I am not afraid of the phantom jester.

I've stated my preferred alternative shreds (Walter > IKS). I have a subtle preference for Walter because I think he's more likely scum than IKS, but IKS will be less likely to contribute to the game in a useful way (kinda the inverse logic of what I said about Galron), and I think NPOM is more likely scum than either of them by a fair margin (due to play, wagon speed, reasons listed above, etc).

NB: If NPOM flips scum, I would be REALLY suspicious of DGB. It's VERY UNUSUAL for her to ignore someone who protects someone for outguessing flavor on D1. Her avoidance of NPOM all day is out of character for her.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: NPOM Yeah, sorry rudeboi, I'm no longer sufficiently impressed by your "information," to continue to allow this to live.

VOTE: TD
This vote is garbage.

I was looking at Titus's iso based on her post to chkflp on this page to check her NPOM history and saw this, which reminded me that TD (who presumably has access to the same information as Rudeboy, based on Rudeboy's posts) doesn't buy it.

Titus, wanna join me? Feel any different by now?

[Iecerint]

my bad then.

What were you doing such that you made the post that way?

I know what it looks like to me. Not gonna muddy since the actual answer could be different.

(Same.)

[Iecerint]

I agree on 1354 there plus if npom is jester I assume he just wins as a separate wincon.

If you agree that NPOM is the most likely scum and can be lynched, vote for him with me.

[Iecerint]

I see people have FINALLY deciphered rudeboy's read on MPO<. That is one step forward. What I don't see is why we are considering the elimination of a Jester on D1.

So, unless it's crunch time and that is the only viable wagon I don't think I will join it.

1. BECAUSE HE'S NOT A JESTER. Jesus, did you

read

the post you described as "one step forward"?
2. I posted about this (admittedly more vaguely because I felt awkward due to Rudeboy's vagueness) about 20 pages ago! This isn't new!
3. And like...if it's been obvious to you all along, surely you get that?

[Iecerint]

The people voting me are doing so on personal bias(starbuck) or OMGUS(ice). Let's lynch actual scum.

This is demonstrably false.

1. Starbuck was the person who noticed your allusion to aberrant mod communcation, which is not personal bias. She states the vote is based at least in part on my post. Neither of these is "personal bias."
2. I voted you based on your scummy response to scrutiny from Starbuck before you had made any comments about me (cf., my long post above). Your attacks on me have been subsequent to that. Therefore, my scumread on you is not OMGUS -- instead, your attacks on me are an OMGUS pattern. (I don't buy OMGUS as a scumtell, so it's not mentioned above. YMMV.)

[Iecerint]

Lavender was about the same as this (as town) in the last Baker game, where we shredded her D1.

I doubt her play as scum would be significantly different, but FWIW.

She was much more active (and funny) in the dead thread than in the game itself.

[Iecerint]

Because the case on pisskop is that he asked for claims 2 days before deadline.

NoPowerOverMe (7): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip
I Keep Siteflaking (9): Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, davesaz, pisskop
pisskop (4): NoPowerOverMe, I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gamma Emerald
Not Voting (1): a2rudeboy

That's likely an IKS shred, since I assume NPOM and Rudeboy won't vote NPOM. Wish TD were around.

I'll be around once later today, but I won't be around right at deadline tomorrow morning.

Pedit: Rudeboy is here. Unless you're going to surprise us, I think IKS should claim.

[Iecerint]

Chkflp voted NPOM based on my case -- it wasn't policy. Walter should know this, because he also voted NPOM based on my case. At minimum, I would expect him to remember that it wasn't policy.

[Iecerint]

Here's our back-and-forth.

[...]
NoPowerOverMe (1): Iecerint

These all need explaining or movement as well.

1. This has been explained in like half my iso.
2. My reads are mostly unchanged since page ~30. My #2 is probably Walter right now, based on his facile approach to the IKS wagon, and NPOM's attitude toward IKS. IKS meta could have a big effect on this.

Idk how you could've missed it, but yeah I didn't read any of that. You can quote it, reiterate your case, or tell my why your vanity wagon is more important than majority.

Thaaaaanks.

@chkflp: [MY NPOM CASE]

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

I'm good with this.

1389 is in the context of multiple players (including you) endorsing my 1354 and voting NPOM. I put 1354 together in the first place at chkflp's request (as above).

[Iecerint]

^ That's @Walter

[Iecerint]

First one chkflip
Quick question, Npom was also a policy elim, yes?
Though we know he was the cw to a scum.

So, uh. Did you forget the reason that you voted for NPOM?

To me this reads like you generally thought NPOM was policy, rather than that chkflip specifically thought so.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: NPOM

This vote is based on my case D1, plus similar behavior from him today (e.g., not scumhunting, making irrelevant comments, trying to get others off-track). I think his behavior is best explained by a scum wincon. He does not behave this way in his games in general. Pisskop's wagon having been an anternawagon on such flimsy grounds supports this.

Re: TD's comment, the chance of picking 2 players accurately as scum is low, but it doesn't follow that learning the alignment of one player changes the likelihood of the other player's alignment (except insofar as scumhunting affects that probability due to relational tells or similar -- and the opposite is true in NPOM's case due to various factors).

I'm also suspicious of Walter. I am weirded out by his "serious" posts at the start of D1 that simultaneously revealed he is not thinking very deeply about his own votes/posts in the game. I wondered if he could be a hydra, but it doesn't seem to be the case. @Davesaz, the circumstances of his move to NPOM from IKS yesterday was that he agreed with my case (where I said that NPOM was scum and could be lynched), I pointed out that he should vote NPOM with me in that case, and then he did so.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: NPOM

This vote is based on my case D1, plus similar behavior from him today (e.g., not scumhunting, making irrelevant comments, trying to get others off-track). I think his behavior is best explained by a scum wincon. He does not behave this way in his games in general. Pisskop's wagon having been an anternawagon on such flimsy grounds supports this.

I think its unlikely that both were scum. Where does that leave scum before the wagon on me?

I think both of them being scum ACCOUNTS FOR the wagon on you (e.g., IKS and NPOM voted for you and tried to get others to vote for you).

[Iecerint]

Walter, what do you make of people suspecting you?

I have noticed that you almost totally ignore it.

[Iecerint]

I would search up beetlejuicing but I can guess the context. *o*

It means you only show up in the game after someone says WHERE IS LAVENDER. This makes people think that you are reading the thread, but not contributing to it, because if you weren't reading at all, you wouldn't notice people commenting on you. This means the explanation for your low participation is other than ignoring the game. Scum are more likely to have low activity than town on average, because town have a mystery to solve using the game, and scum already know the answer to the main mystery of the game (or at least to part of the mystery). So, your pattern of behavior leads people to infer you could be scum.

It is the same logic that led me to think you were scum in the last Baker game. But, I know you were town in that game. So, I think it will be helpful to maybe give advice on ways to participate. (FWIW, I thought your readslist was fine. Your section about me showed that you were thinking about what you knew about me from this game and our last game and that you were trying to make something of it.)

Try posting about something on the page you just read whenever you catch up on the game. Here are some options, from lower-effort to higher-effort:

LOW EFFORT
1. Attachment: You can make a post expressing your positive or negative feelings toward a player
2. Suggestion: You can recommend that a player, or players in general, do a particular thing
3. Clarification: You can ask a player to explain something to you
4. Confrontation: You can point out a contraindication in someone's thinking
5. Interpretation: You can say that one or more things a player does suggests that player has a certain motivation (e.g., that they are town or scum)
HIGH EFFORT

[Iecerint]

NPOM, so far, is this based on a re-read, ad hoc isos, your memory of the game to date, or something else?

[Iecerint]

Walter, what do you make of people suspecting you?

I have noticed that you almost totally ignore it.

[Iecerint]

If you're going to poke holes in my reads you should just do it and not beat around the bush.

I actually like your reads a lot; they seem to come from a town mindset. I don't really

agree

with all of the reads, which is separate from that (sometimes unavoidably, as town!NPOM has the whole "secret flavor" piece that may be relevant to alignment ala BEF, but it doesn't seem to be 100% related to that ala Rudeboy). Your post also let me notice how many people TD has voted. I still think he's town, but it was a little startling to see.

Then, I had a paranoid reaction to how much I had liked them, because I thought it was weird that I would suddenly have a positive reaction to something you had done. So, I decided to ask you more about it.

[Iecerint]

so why wouldnt we elim NPOM?

Huh?

[Iecerint]

Are you planning to finish the last 5-6?

[Iecerint]

Still waiting on NPOM's last reads.

[Iecerint]

I don't like bringing this up but I am autistic and that may have something to do with how I come across in my interactions.

This does make me think about some of your posts differently, namely your behavior way back on page 4-5 that made me suspicious of you in the first place (i.e., your "RVS is evil" post). It also helps me understand the digression about whether it is appropriate for players to expresses wishes about replacements. But, I don't think it accounts for other stuff, including the pattern that Rudeboy described. Rudeboy seems to say that your roleflavor accounts for it, and you seem to townread him for saying so. But, I don't think you're town with a post restriction. So, I have a hard time understanding the dynamic between the two of you.

I am explaining this because I want to understand the motivation for your behaviors more clearly and also make clear my own stuck points.

[Iecerint]

Rude and I have the same role flavor. Rude asked me some questions to confirm it and I did. So now we are just trying to determine if we are both town or not, which I am leaning towards yes.

You answered by saying that you and Rudeboy have the same flavor. This makes it sound like you are saying that, to the extent that your flavor explains your behavior, the effect of your flavor on your behavior should apply both to you and to Rudeboy. Is that correct?

If so

, it would mean that your flavor does not help me to understand your behavior, because your behavior

differs

from Rudeboy's AFAICT. Also, Rudeboy seems to think that your behavior

is

explained by your flavor, which deviates from the idea that your flavor is identical. (It also calls into question why Rudeboy would steer away from your shred in the first place.)

If not

, help me to understand what your flavor has to do with your behavior. For example, it might be that your behavior has nothing to do with your flavor. If so, that would be helpful for me to understand, because it would let me simplify the possibility space.

The issue I am working from is that the possibility space where you are town appears quite small. So, I want to make sure that I understand the possibility space.

[Iecerint]

OK. So, which of the following is true:

1. Your flavor leads you to choose behaviors that non-intentionally do not align with maximally playing to your win condition (e.g., something like, if you drew "town Joker" in a Batman game and were a bit of a troll to have fun/crumb).
2. Your role has a modified win condition, and you are playing to the modified win condition.

[Iecerint]

Catching up

[Iecerint]

NPOM, why do you think Looker is town?

[Iecerint]

VOTE: DGB

DGB has been off all game. Before I thought it could be explained by being scum with NPOM, but it's been weird regardless of NPOM's alignment. Her behavior around the Looker wagon is particularly bizarre IMO -- she defended Looker without an earnest attempt to derail the wagon, then said she intended to hammer, then didn't do so.

I'm not sure about NPOM's alignment still tbh because whenever he does something townie he does something bizarre that makes me feel silly for second guessing myself in the first place, but his change to playing the game and interacting with players has changed my perspective on shredding him. His disclosure of ASD also explains-away some of what I couldn't account for with him.

/drunkpost

[Iecerint]

Yeah OK, "weird" but no explanation LOL.

Iecerint making lazy shit cases and claiming being drunk to avoid accountability.

I've discussed what's weird about your play already, starting as early as D1. And, I know you are aware of it because you've responded to it already.

[Iecerint]

I'm conflicted on weather to stay on Death or switch to Assemble

Why not switch to DGB?

[Iecerint]

There are so many good scum candidates(TD, Drew, Rude, Pisskop, DGB)

Why pisskop?

[Iecerint]

Catching up

[Iecerint]

Spoiler: Catch-up Thoughts

133: TD looks like the shred given the claim. I'd support it.

134: Chkflp proposing policy shred on Walter-slot is irrational. I'm surprised he would frame it as "policy" at this point, since the slot is a scummy slot. It's the sort of move that doesn't motivate any behavior, and making it ineffectual was unforced. This is the first thing chkflp has done that does seem scum-motivated to me; I hadn't picked up on the basis of people's thoughts about anything earlier. DD points out this is dissonant with D1.

135: Somehow the above makes Bambi vote Walter/Assemble tho. I do not understand Rudeboy's 180 right when NPOM starts playing the game. @Gamma, Walter's VCA on the IKS wagon was facile.

137: I found it alarming that everyone suddenly voted for DGB. I think I was totally alone on the wagon all day before a rush of votes here.

138: I agree with A50 about DGB, though I had not thought about her play that way up to this point (except that the difference in her playstyle counts). DGB's angry response is OOC for townDGB. She also misrepresents what A50 said (i.e., feigning reading is different from not reading at all).

139: @NPOM, it's more common that she uses humor than anger when wagoned. There's more aggression mixed with the humor when she's scum. The aggression:humor ratio on 138 for her is unusually high (which it sounds like she acknowledges -- she says it's due to a perception that A50's "waffly"). I've found her scummy since D1 based on my experience with her (I've played with her a lot, though I'd been off the site for the past 3 years in terms of playing mafia games). I delayed voting her mostly because I like playing with her, but at this point there's enough evidence and deviation from her town game that I can't ignore it. (NB: She doesn't really dispute this, but instead justifies the difference by saying that strong personalities are inhibiting her, which sounds made-up to me, because DGB shirking as she claims is OOC.)

140: @Chkflp: I think Lavender is probably town (re: your comment about players in the last Baker game not townreading her). FTR I don't know what [DGB]'s talking about in her iso. @NPOM 3510-3511 is more typical for how she responds to attacks when town (but she has not been doing that most of the game).

143: DD's hysterical and apparently unprompted confrontation of NPOM feels OOC. He's felt kind of constricted for most of this game, which has felt similar to the last Baker game. But then, good catch on DGB. GE unvotes DGB for it for some reason that I don't follow (???).

I think DGB is the best shred. She has been uncharacteristically disengaged this game and tends to be more disengaged as scum in my experience with her. I picked up on this way back on D1 and commented on it, and I mentioned it again D2. I deferred going into it early on mostly because I like playing with DGB. My only hesitancy is the rush of votes on 137.

I would also vote to shred TD, but this is a significantly dispreferred shred for me. I disprefer it because I had a pretty strong townread on them based on their play D1, especially around Leia way back on page 15, and I have learned to privilege strong early reads. But, more recently, a) they are spamming AtE in a way that is performative (e.g., as evidenced by their continuing the behavior while complaining that people say their behavior is AtE <--- which demonstrates that they are aware that their behavior is ineffective despite continuing it, which indicates an intent that is other than being effective), and b) they have already claimed. So, my perspective has changed.

NPOM's behavior has dramatically changed since late D2. I no longer support their shred. They have moved into the type of posting they do in their other town games, based on my meta dive way back on D1. I have been pretty weirded out by Rudeboy suddenly flipping on them (or alternatively, becoming exasperated by them) at this point. I don't understand why any recent behavior from them would lead to this sort of reaction from Rudeboy.

[Iecerint]

DGB is self-consciously paraphrasing the quote in her signature.

[Iecerint]

In very far into Tideath's ISO, but is a highly antagonistic tone common for Tideath to those who have played with him?

He's a bit emotionally sensitive in general, but it's outside his typical range this game.

[Iecerint]

I don't buy DGB's claim.

1. If her claim were as she says, she would have reacted differently to IKS's claim D1 (e.g., because townDGB would instantly infer that IKS was scum, for the same reason that people are now inferring that DGB's claim implies she is town due to scumIKS). This is particularly true because IIRC she was saying that IKS was scum while voting NPOM with me D1. This is why I think she is not town with the role she says she has.
2. Bambi already claimed another version of IKS's claim. Bambi's claim seems related to something that happened to multiple players N2 and is relatively verified (though it's not impossible that the action could be an omni-fruit vender). So far as I have experienced them, Baker's games are "bastard" in name only -- they're similar to ordinary Theme games on the site from the early 2010s. This is why I think the role is probably fabricated, rather than "the role that scumDGB has."
3. DGB's claim is an ideal scum fakeclaim. She can continue to fabricate it as the game goes on. Her note that abilities are "probabilistic" gives her even more flexibility in fakeclaiming as the game goes on.

[Iecerint]

You can't use recursive spoiler tags, if that's what's coming up.

Otherwise, it's [spoiler = "Nameoftag"][/spoiler] absent the spaces around the =.

[Iecerint]

Bambi already claimed another version of IKS's claim. Bambi's claim seems related to something that happened to multiple players N2 and is relatively verified (though it's not impossible that the action could be an omni-fruit vender). So far as I have experienced them, Baker's games are "bastard" in name only -- they're similar to ordinary Theme games on the site from the early 2010s. This is why I think the role is probably fabricated, rather than "the role that scumDGB has."

See this is why I asked about multiball a little bit ago. I was townreading Bambi for having a claim that seemed functionally similar to IKS’ role, and when DGB claimed similar (or more precisely, referred me to where she did, as while the claim was D1 I only acknowledged it today) I wondered if it could be possible for one of Bambi or DGB to be scum opposite to IKS. I think the things you noticed about how DGB reacted to IKS’ claim would make sense from an opposite scum, and the slip commentary still makes sense as opposite scum as well.

Points against opposite scum are:
1. No multi-death at night (so you'd have to imagine multiple successful protections, which is very low-probability).
2. I think otherscumDGB would relish shredding scumIKS (or !townIKS). I think her ambivalence around scumIKS (as evidenced by calling him scum and not voting him) is more consistent with being scum with IKS and being conflicted about bussing.

What's the "slip commentary?" I think I remember you saying you went back and reread her D1 and worked things out in a way that made sense to you, but I do not know what you found. Also, I thought you had concluded that it meant DGB was town, but your language here implies otherwise or at least that it was less conclusive.

[Iecerint]

I continue to support shredding DGB. Her claim did nothing to decrease the probability that she is scum. This is her scum game. She couldn't even resist apologizing for it when people mentioned it (i.e., she blamed IIRC chkflp and NPOM for how she was playing).

I reread her stuff D1 since multiple players reported that they read that and determined it meant she was town. If anyone who claimed to have done so actually unvoted by following along, I encourage them to read it on your own and come to their own conclusion. What she did is say that IKS was scum while voting NPOM on the basis of my NPOM case. Then, she tried to deflect away from IKS based on his CLAIM <--- which makes no sense for townDGB, because she would infer that IKS was scum if she were a townplayer who knew her own claimed role was in the game. This pattern of behavior is NOT consistent with DGB being town with the role she has claimed, and it is ALSO suspicious for being scum with IKS in particular.

[Iecerint]

which makes no sense for townDGB

Everyone is such an expert on me in this game. I'm learning so much about myself.

DGB, I really enjoying playing with you, both in person and on forum, hence my not voting you until today, but you do play differently when you are scum. Put simply, you are less engaged and more disruptive. (Granted, this is assuming your play hasn't changed since 2017. This pattern was stable 2010-2017.)

I think you are pretty aware that I have picked up your play looking scummy this game, regardless of your alignment, because we have had direct exchanges about this as far back as D1 this game. Hence, I am not buying the sudden outrage about this D3 when I finally vote you, when you have abundant context for where I am coming from.

[Iecerint]

I think you probably are aware of it and feel guilty about it, too, as evidenced by your blaming chkflp and NPOM.

[Iecerint]

I don't believe my play style has changed.

In this game, chkflip has been foaming at the mouth aggressive and unpleasant, I was put off by the Looker/chkflip hostilities, NPOM is a short post spammer, so in terms of game space, I feel squeezed on the sidelines more than usual. The game atmosphere isn't the worst I've ever seen, but there a lot if fun is being sucked out of it.

If you take a minute to iso me, I am just as spirited as ever.

If you take a minute to look at the reasons for which I am being, you'll see that there are none that stand even cursory examination.

Here's the relevant post.

[Iecerint]

DGB was essentially telling Titus not to ask for reads from someone who was likely to be eliminated.
It might mean foreknowledge that said reads could be incriminating.

I see DGB's comment as insinuation that there was something spooky about Titus's behavior re: IKS.

[Iecerint]

Which, again, is the opposite of people's reading of late D1 somehow clearing DGB.

[Iecerint]

So, at minimum, I think it should be clear that DGB's case is bullshit:

1. The main thing of possible substance in her case (i.e., the part that isn't a distortion) is an idea that I am paranoid and indecisive. I don't dispute that at all -- I do in fact play that way and kind of also am that way in general. DGB knows this about me and knows it is NAI. So, she knows that this information is NAI, but is framing it as if it is AI. This is a scummy thing to do.

2. She makes multiple sloppy, unforced errors that show that her case is something she hastily constructed just now --

not

something she has been privately thinking about for 2 game days, as she has since said. For example, she criticizes my mentioning a "case" on myself in a post, when I am responding to a post where IKS had

asked me to do so

. She intimates some kind of occult sinister reason for this, when it's obvious that I'm responding to with (scum)IKS's request. Another example is that she alludes to my pointing out the absurdity of the jester connotations of Rudeboy/NPOM, as if I were the one who was arguing that we forego scumhunting on those grounds (which is LITERALLY THE OPPOSITE of what I was doing!). These are examples of cases where it is VERY EASY to understand my posts, to the extent that I think 1-2 players even called her out on it. If she were really RUMINATING ALONE ABOUT HER PARANOID IDEAS ABOUT ME ALL GAME, as she intimates, she would not make these unforced erorrs! She made the errors because this was all done post-hoc, contrary to what she claimed. Misrepresenting the timeline of events for credibility is a scummy thing to do.

3. Her third point is a defense to my explanation that her dissonance around her playstyle is accounted for by guilt (guilt that does NOT come up for her as town). She basically says "I'm not projecting -- you're projecting!" So, actually, there's a bit of irony here that's mostly neither here nor there, because it IS true that I DO feel guilt voting/pushing her, and I agree with her that that is probably related to my picking up on what was going on in her bizarre post, because that is how affective empathy works in general. But, it is something that comes up for me WHENEVER I play with DGB, REGARDLESS of my alignment, when I think she is scum (and she's EXTREMELY OBVTOWN when she is town, which is why this comes up when she's scum), because I like playing with her. SHE KNOWS THIS IS A THING THAT HAPPENS FOR ME REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT. I think I even mentioned this in the last Baker game that we played together, too, just a month or so ago, where I was town and NK'd N1. (Wrench in things: I was wary of her that game and we were both town -- I died N1 so didn't have the opportunity to continue to evaluate her over multiple days -- this is part of why I have alluded to possible changes in her play since 2017.) But, regardless of that, she knows that my having this sort of emotion around her is NAI.

TL;DR -- DGB a) is lying about how her case was constructed and b) she is construing NAI information that she knows is NAI for me as scummy. She is lying scum; shred all lying scums.

Reminder of other evidence that DGB is scum:

1. She claimed almost the same role as IKS and Bambi. All 3 of these probably don't exist in the game. IKS flipped and Bambi's role has produced verified phenomena in the game. DGB is probably lying.
2. She took about 5 days to claim it in bits and pieces (unnecessarily -- and then she played the victim when people pointed out what she had done, saying that she didn't complete her claim because she had not been rung up). DGB wrote her thesis around how this pattern usually means that someone is lying scum.
3. D1 She

said

that scumIKS was scum while joining my NPOM wagon, apparently at the same time that she claims she was privately tormented about my alignment. THIS MAKES NO SENSE. Again, the timeline she is stipulating is obviously fabricated, because she is lying scum (cf., 2 above).
4. When IKS claimed his role, she tried to defuse his wagon by saying it made her think he was town! THIS MAKES NO SENSE. A reasonable person who had DGB's claimed role would immediately infer that IKS was scum after his claim. SHE DID THE

OPPOSITE

OF THAT. This is probably because she is scum, and she doesn't have the role she has claimed.

[Iecerint]

Ice do you think goofball takes advantage of your wanting to play with her as scum

No, that is not a pattern that I have noticed. If anything, there is a pattern that we rarely attack one another regardless of alignment. When she is town I usually get a clear sense of it D1 and subsequently engage with her a lot during the game. (She's not sociopathic in reality, if this is referring to acting to -- she is saying that in the service of what she's trying to accomplish, which is to derail her wagon and wagon me.)

Shred-1
Claim time baby.

I'll claim if someone tells me they're ready to hammer.

Ierint, I know you are busy, but could you do me a favor and answer if you meant Tideath is out of his wolf range? or if you meant out of the range of general behavior?

"Wolf range?"

TD having kind of hyperbolic emotional responses to phenomena in the game is par for the course. The part that's a little off D3, or at least during parts of D3, is that it started to seem like he was having emotional responses to such an extent that he did not do much else in the thread. THAT is unusual -- it's more typical that he will get angry and yell, but then become energized and kind of engage with the game (e.g., that's what I perceived around me and Leia D1, which is why I think he's town). His posts in the past real-life day or so are more similar to his baseline.

Pre-edit

Its claim time!

See above.

[Iecerint]

Ice do you think goofball takes advantage of your wanting to play with her as scum

No, that is not a pattern that I have noticed. If anything, there is a pattern that we rarely attack one another regardless of alignment. When she is town I usually get a clear sense of it D1 and subsequently engage with her a lot during the game. (She's not sociopathic in reality, if this is referring to acting to -- she is saying that in the service of what she's trying to accomplish, which is to derail her wagon and wagon me.)

(For an concrete example of this pattern, refer to Kingdom Hearts Mafia, circa 2010, which was also my first game with her IIRC.)

Also EBWOP: If this is referring to her self-description as sociopathic*

[Iecerint]

I don’t think previous Iecrint acted like such for claiming?

[Iecerint]

EBWOP I meant to also post a ?

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Around he [TD] and Leia D1.* <---- This one is for Grendal's quotepost.

[Iecerint]

Mmm, maybe my memory is acting weird again
Last game I thought you claimed without anyone claiming intent to hammer, I’ll has to check

Yep, I claimed earlier in that game due to a couple of factors.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, y'all can get rid of that. I'm tired of it.

DGB is scum, though.

I get that she is fun but. She's scum.

Let's shred scum.

[Iecerint]

Eh. I like Lecerints case on Drip better. Seems like it ain't happening though.

Lecerint I recommend claiming now so we get actual scum. You got 3 days to get a different person shreded, though honestly it'll only be 2.

So vote for DGB.

[Iecerint]

Goofball, tho? I keep flopping on her tbh. It isn't about entertainment value so I'm not entirely certain why you brought that up.

It's because I was projecting -- affection/entertainment is the reason I don't like to vote her when she is scum, so I infer that others are hesitant for a similar reason. The other possibility is that others aren't reading and are just kinda following players they trust (which fits with all the wagons being so fast). I thought I had remembered you having suspicion of DGB, though, so I inferred you were in the former group.

[Iecerint]

Do you think gender bias is in play here?

With regard to Lavender, or DGB?

I do probably feel a little more protective of Lavender than I would of an otherwise-identical player who used he/him pronouns tbh, upon reflection. So, maybe a little bit from me re: Lavender?

For DGB, I don't think so.

[Iecerint]

NPOM is probably scum. I think I have come around after doing some of my secret meta techniques here.

VOTE: NPOM

I only read 1 NPOM scum game but the correlations are very similar.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83882

A NPOM scum game for those wondering.

I've read like 3 NPOM games at this point.

FWIR He always starts the game doin the stuff he did on D1-2 of this game. As town, he shifts to this game's D3-NPOM-style relatively quickly. As scum, he switches more slowly or doesn't switch at all. So, I think meta ends up being kinda a wash for him, as he's between the two categories this game.

If your secret meta techniques is something else, please explain it.

[Iecerint]

Meta ends up being a wash vis a vie this game.*

[Iecerint]

At the same time, I good good feels from IKS because he claimed quickly, and his role description has some parallels with mine.

@All, reminder above. Read both parts of this, then think about a town player having DGB's claimed role (which she incidentally just changed again from what she implied earlier), and what inferences you would make about IKS in this situation -- especially in the setting where you were

already "scumreading" him.

[Iecerint]

Iecerint, if you were town, you'd have changed your mind and read me as town a long time ago.

1. I’m town.
2. You can’t change your interaction with IKS by posting scenes from Fargo, endearing though it may be.
3. I would have said that the only way you could be town is if your claim was a fakeclaim (which says a lot), but you’ve already reneged on that claim, too. So. Well. That was a bit of a mindfuck tbh.

[Iecerint]

"Wolf range?"

TD having kind of hyperbolic emotional responses to phenomena in the game is par for the course. The part that's a little off D3, or at least during parts of D3, is that it started to seem like he was having emotional responses to such an extent that he did not do much else in the thread. THAT is unusual -- it's more typical that he will get angry and yell, but then become energized and kind of engage with the game (e.g., that's what I perceived around me and Leia D1, which is why I think he's town). His posts in the past real-life day or so are more similar to his baseline.

This is such a damn non-read
No actual “I think TDeath is X alignment”, just saying “this is regular TDeath behavior”. Worthless.

1. Grendel is asking for me to clarify the TD meta I offered, after they asked for TD meta. This post isn’t intended to give any information about TD’s alignment this game. The intention is to give information that can help someone read TD in general.
2. Despite that, it actually DOES say explicitly that I think he is town, so you’re mistaken on both the gestalt and concretely what you said.
3. To repeat what I said, I’ve said multiple times that I place a strong emphasis on early reads and I had a strong early town read on TD from his interaction with Leia. This doesn’t mean I’m totally inflexible with them (e.g., I’ve softened on NPOM D3, which was another strong early read).

[Iecerint]

[Iecerint]

Please stop supporting scum claim stall, all that pussyfooting around and having to submit

Intent To Claim Form SP-1001

in triplicate only helps the scum.

The caboose is red for a reason.

The reason for waiting for claim+intent is that without, we get a bunch of unnecessary claims and wagon deflations (e.g., we will have had a total of 3 claims today, plus softs, based on unnecessarily excessive claiming).

If you get claim+intent, then that player should be shredded 100% unless they have a confirmable power role.

[Iecerint]

Icerint if you have a confirmable town role you should really go ahead and claim. Otherwise you're causing an unnecessary waiting game that will make EoD less effective in catching scum. Town needs enough time to access the claim, and time to consider if pivoting is needed.

1. I am hearing what you are saying. I am not claiming until the shred-1 and intent.
2. You have all the information you need to confirm that DGB is scum. My claim is not a foregone conclusion.

[Iecerint]

Shes really like this every game? :/

This is pretty similar to the last Baker game I played with her (where D1 was Lavender v Iecerint townvtown, Lavender shredded).

[Iecerint]

Obviously if any shred is going to happen besides Ice(leaning this way now tbh) I would highly prefer NPOM, and maybe Lav.

I am pretty surprised to hear you say you're leaning me at this point. What makes you think that? What do you make of DGB's behavior around IKS D1 in particular?

[Iecerint]

Ah anyways, I wanna say DGB is the big baddie, because they keep claim hoppin, well maybe not claim hoppin, but I don’t really understand aye.
How would their role correlate with IKS’s if it’s a Jack?

Will my record of incorrect readsu continue!

On to another thought!
Rudey is hmmm, well I don’t get Rudey, but I think they should understand...
Darn darn darn it’s not like I don’t want to post more!!!

OK so vote for one of them.

[Iecerint]

Why is it so hard to get people to vote Iecerint to get a claim?

I was at shred-1 sans intent from nothing in a span of something like 6 hours of paroxysmal insanity; people unvoted after they started regaining the ability to think.

[Iecerint]

@Lav, Galron, Drew, Iecerint: I can't really tell what you think of Grendel of have thought of the slot for a good while, can you expand on your overall thoughts on the Walter/assemble/grendel slot? This especially goes out to Lav and Iecerint.

Walter was scummy, Assemble flaking upon getting the role PM also skews scummy, sad to say. But, Grendel is engaging with the game in a way that will make the slot sortoutable via POE later. So, not anywhere near the table for shred today.

In contrast to DGB, who is playing her scum meta, has scummy interactions with flipped scum (i.e., more reliable than relational perceptions among unrevealed players), claimed multiple implausible roles over period of 20 pages of content, and came up with an OMGUS case on me after I voted her, claiming it dated from D1 despite that she followed my NPOM wagon D1.

[Iecerint]

Why is it so hard to get people to vote Iecerint to get a claim?

I was at shred-1 sans intent from nothing in a span of something like 6 hours of paroxysmal insanity; people unvoted after they started regaining the ability to think.

When were you at S-1?

Pretty sure I was when Grendel and someone else asked for the claim, but it was without intent. I declined to claim without intent. People unvoted me a page or so later, maybe based off content I posted around the same time. Pedit IIRC it was Chkflp who said something about wanting to avoid a lolhammer, and then some others.

@Iece the thing is until then your read on Walterslot had floated from scum to ???, it kinda read like you wanting to maintain a level of suspicion there but not wanting to put your money where your mouth was. The part about PoEing him later kinda affirms those thoughts, as the general idea of what I think you're doing if Grendel is town is trying to keep the slot for later.

1. The current thing on my mind is wanting to shred scum. DGB is scum. All this other stuff is a distraction from shredding DGB. When we are this close to getting a flip plus whatever night stuff, both of which will make the game easier to solve, it is more effective to focus on solving the puzzle in front of me.
2. You have accurately summarized my view of the Walter slot. My interval update on Walterslot is: Grendel looks better/moretown, as evidenced by it looks like they are trying to engage with players, catch up on the game, figure out what is going on, etc. (By contrast, Walter's main activity was at the start of D2, where he did some kind of VCA that was based on a facile reading of the thread (which tends to skew scummy, because scum are less motivated to read the thread because they already know the answer to who is scum).)
3. Something that makes Walter a little different from my NPOM/DGB/TD reads is that Walter was a later read, whereas I had a sense of the other three earlier. Walter was a lurker through the very early game. I self-consciously overvalue early reads and make myself work hard before changing them, because I tend to find that early reads are more reliable than later reads. So, if you are noticing the contrast in floppiness for NPOM/DGB/TD reads vs Walterslot, that may account for it. (I've mostly flipped on NPOM by now despite having had an early scumread tho, so it's not like they're totally inflexible.)

But yeah, I don't dispute the idea that I'm kinda waffley in general. I'm inclined to think back and forth about something dialectically when trying to reason what is likely. That's how I approach the game in general, except for self-consciously correcting it for early reads.

[Iecerint]

People who aren't on me or DGB should probably either say they think it's town v town (i.e., and justify your thinking), or consider switching:

TiphaineDeath (2): Starbuck, Grendel
NoPowerOverMe (1): PookyTheMagicalBear
davesaz (1): TiphaineDeath
Not Voting (4): Lavender, Almost50, chkflip, a2rudeboy

If you do think it's townvtown, please try to make a case for DGBtown in light of the evidence against her. I am making this request because I anticipate that you will change your mind about DGB upon examining the evidence. Or, maybe you will orient me to something I have not noticed.

[Iecerint]

Thing i won't do today: Vote DGB

Thing I'll consider: Iec

Thing I'd prefer: Lav (or, NPOM to a lesser degree)

So, this reads like you want to policy lynch. Is that correct, or do you think those players are scum?

Pedit Looks like you're pretty clear that this is still policy

If you do want to policy lynch, I infer that you do not make much of my case on DGB or DGB's case on me. Is that correct?

[Iecerint]

THIS game state confuses me and demotivates me. or should I say confuses me and

thus

demotivates me, and in a Large that's almost unsalvageable. (Is that a word?)

Even when I did eventually decide to make a stance and declare intent on Ice to force a claim; someone unvoted!!

So, let's make the game state simpler, particularly since we're at <48 hours.

1. Do you think DGB and me is town v town?
2A. If so, explain why you think DGB and me are town. Give exactly 1 preferred shred candidate.
2B. If not, who of DGB/Iec do you think is more likely scum?

[Iecerint]

OK.

I'm a Vanilla Shredder/VT.

[Iecerint]

Flavor is that I'm Josh Elmore, guitarist for a band called Cattle Decapitation.

[Iecerint]

Unvote

VOTE: a2rudeboy

Rudeboy is an acceptable shred given the game state.

My thoughts on Rudeboy:
1. His shift to tunneling NPOM today (rather than defending NPOM before), right when NPOM changed to a more pro-town playstyle and disclosed living with ASD, has not made sense to me, and he's not been able to clarify why beyond being exasperated with NPOM (e.g., but why

now

?).
2. The previous steadfast defense of NPOM based on flavor innuendo makes no sense in hindsight.
3. His focus on policy lynches D3 when we have flipped scum and related cases, and also declining to engage with in-game content, is consistent with scum alignment, especially if DGB is town. The alternative possibility (e.g., Rudeboy behavior being anti-town apathy) is dissonant with approaching the game with feelings of exasperation (i.e., his stated emotions around engagement).

Caveats:
A. There may be more that I still don't know that accounts for #1-#2, because NPOM/TD's behavior from D1/D3 implies there might be more to it.
B. For #3, it's not unbelievable that Rudeboy could move from exasperation to apathy (though I'd expect him to become less dysregulated re: NPOM in that eventuality -- but you could say it's kinda been reflected in some openness to Lavender).
c. Rudeboy's behavior makes more sense for scum!Rudeboy if DGB is town IMO, and I think DGB is pretty clearly scum for reasons I've stated multiple times.

I prefer DGB and will check for a resurgence of a DGB wagon before deadline.

[Iecerint]

RIP.

Don't forget about DGB.

[Iecerint]

The cult was really a recruiting masonry. It's a cult in name only.

[Iecerint]

maybe, but I had to earn my trust

That's true, except that the mod confirmed it for you in-thread.