DEFCON Mafia 5.0: GAME OVER - NEW AMERICA FORMED

[joqiza]

idk if anyone else ever feels like this but sometimes when i'm town i almost wish i were scum because i can see like this compelling narrative where i'm scum except it requires me to actually be competent at scumplay

[joqiza]

I suspect that kind of thinking is not going to be fruitful in this case, but we'll see.

[joqiza]

Thanks DV... I'm slightly meh about continuing but I definitely appreciate the gesture

[joqiza]

There's also the potential of crosskills in multiball so his play would be very risky as mafia. Risky =/= impossible but that's worth noting

[joqiza]

terrorist has no incentive to kill espionage unless they think espionage is controlled by mafia

They have an incentive to kill the battleship though, no? That role is directly counter to their win condition.

[joqiza]

Also, wait, yeah, espionage can sniff out terrorist too.

[joqiza]

Final two Russians have to be DeasVail and Johnny after that intercept, right?

He intercepted the nuke on me, not the nuke on Johnny.

[joqiza]

Nominally I'm fine with joqiza living another day because that's still an extra nuke in play when we start winnowing things down.

If this is your logic for keeping me alive, wouldn't it apply to Titus as well?

[joqiza]

Yea I am technically the more dangerous role to keep around as I have the option to lie about who I'm nuking in some endgame situations maybe.

Idk I'm not arguing to get limmed I just felt obligated to point out my warhead capability doesn't really work as justification to lim her over me

[joqiza]

Ah okay

[joqiza]

I'm not 100% sure--someone work through the math, but I think if you're determined to resolve in that 2.4 counterwagon, then there's a mechanical argument to lim IV.

Like first of all I don't think covert ops has much utility at this point. Given it just stops nukes and we want resolves.

Also leaving me/Titus alive isn't that dangerous even if you think we're scum because unless they kill DV, he's able to shoot down a retaliatory nuke.

Like basically the crux of the argument would be that me as inno or Titus as an inno is better than IV as an inno because we're dayvigs. And leaving mafia dayvig alive isn't quite as dangerous because DV has to shoot down any nukes on other conftown slots or else he scumclaims.

There might even be an objective argument to: lim IV, vax checks outside, and me and Titus just self resolve each other tomorrow. Obviously I don't like that in terms of my role pm / reads but that nearly resolves the whole counterwagon if that's the goal, and even if me/IV/Titus all town you'd still have a check outside on a silo from Vax.

I'm getting in over my head but I'm pretty sure check on silo is ++town. Assuming certain things like Vax town.

[joqiza]

I'm also counting myself as a silo here, but I guess I'm technically more like a spicy silo.

[joqiza]

you should not let someone with the ability to intercept nukes go to the next day

Why not? What am I missing?

[joqiza]

Can't we just say "hey DV tomorrow you're only allowed to use your intercept on gorilla, Bell, Vax, Vax's clear" or whatever, you can pick and choose, and if he goes against that it's a scumclaim? Like what's he gonna do? If he's Russian it means they only got one silo left max.

[joqiza]

When I say "use intercept on" I mean save them, to clarify

[joqiza]

Ugh I know I just made that whole argument but now I'm remembering some Koto posts about Mognet that really did not read partnered

[joqiza]

Okay here are my mech thoughts as bullet points:

1) I think Vax should check a silo claim, whether it's on wagon, off wagon, whatever but resolving those slots is super +town imo because of how powerful they are.

2) Toog goes on Vax obviously.

3) I think if IV doesn't get limmed then he should ONLY use his role to go on a non-silo claim, if I'm understanding how it works correctly? That way he only affects a terrorist who has a hidden silo and doesn't interfere with anything else, if he goes on a silo I think it's a scumclaim.

4) I think maybe there's some merit to just having a pool of people (maybe even limited to Vax/Vax's clear) that DV's allowed to intercept for tomorrow?

5) Despite the mechanical argument I made, which I still stand by, that it's better to leave silos alive, I do think we're more likely to hit scum in the silo claims.

[joqiza]

Lmfao if that marry slot flips scum I might get run off this site

[joqiza]

Church how certain are you that Titus is town? And are you sure that they're town or just not group scum?

[joqiza]

I still don't get why anyone SRs the JohnnyFarrar slot.

[joqiza]

Pardon?

[joqiza]

Not sure if it's already been discussed but we should probs wait for the marry replacement as it gives us another resolve opportunity if she has a silo.

[joqiza]

Hm. I feel like I remember her saying she might want to nuke me.

[joqiza]

goodbye Sam I will miss you

[joqiza]

Ur not seppuku-ing?

[joqiza]

? what weird launch?

[joqiza]

wait for the marry-sub cuz we can maybe just nuke him instead yeah?

[joqiza]

the way i see it what happens now is, hopefully marry had silo, and we can:
- nuke IV
- lim titus
- check me

info on me gives info on DV too cuz he intercepted on my behalf. that takes care of the counterwagon and even if it's all town (which it very well could be) we're still in an okay spot

[joqiza]

church i agree w/ you about IV but vax has a huge boner for the slot and will just waste a cop check on him anyway if we leave him alive. also his role is functionally useless and i'm pretty sure it's optimal to leave more dayvigs alive all else equal.

[joqiza]

maybe i'm thinking about this wrong but i feel like having more dayvigs around is just more pro-town because it gives the equivalent of more mislims

like johnny's nuke wasn't even totally useless and i say this knowing it was going on me because it would have at least narrowed the PoE, that's what I mean

the only bad nukes are on conftown are people who we decide are consensus villager. and those we have the option to intercept

an inno on IV wouldn't be a total waste, no, but he doesn't have the ability to resolve anyone. he'd be useful as conftown only as an additional body. so i see it as better to resolve him using eliminations rather than the investigate. if you're really suspicious of johnny, have him checked. then you either get 1. conftown who can resolve another role, or 2. red check who can be intercepted and killed tomorrow.

[joqiza]

like you've decided that you want to resolve a player's alignment, and you have multiple ways to do that. you can just kill them, or you can check them, and you want to check those players who will have more utility alive in case they're town. that's the basis of my argument: resolve the useless PR's with kill versus resolve the dayvigs with checks. Obviously we only have one check but that's where I'm coming from.

[joqiza]

ugh let me just simplify this:

- vax should cop check someone who has nukes
- idc what you do with IV

[joqiza]

I really think it's optimal to wait for marry to get replaced and see if we can use an extra nuke. I'm inclined to try to squeeze every advantage out of the mechs that we can. But I get that people are impatient.

[joqiza]

Gorilla/Bell/Vax/Toog/Cephrir + Vax's inno if he gets one: I'll nuke whoever a consensus of these slots determines they want me to target tomorrow. Those slots remain in a tier above for me either via social reads or by mechs, every other slot I've found myself tinfoiling internally over the past few days even marry.

On the subject of Johnny, I still don't think Reckoner was scummy and I have such a hard time seeing it as aligned with Merlot because of reasons that are possibly rulebreaking to articulate fully. And on the one hand fuck me for angleshooting, but on the other hand if it's theater just blegh is all I have to say and I wouldn't think Merlot the type to play like that or utilize a subout to gain an advantage for her team.

That's all I will say though, at the end of the day I don't see him as a sacrosanct spot and if we play this right we won't have to make many of these hard decisions, we can just clear out the PoE, myself included, and if terrorist is still alive when the dust settles the survivors can figure that shit out since I'll be dead by then.

Still think waiting for the marry sub is mechanically optimal but there's a tradeoff between that and player apathy if Cakes can't find a sub, so I defer to my towncore as to who we want to lim and when.

[joqiza]

Hey Sam what animal do you think DV's avatar is. Asking for the sake of science

[joqiza]

I was on the way home from work today and there was a car in front of me with the license plate 112 MAF.

Not sure i like mastina's readslist either
~ skitter

Et Al (Skitter/SS)
scum.

I wonder why?

If only the universe had given me an unresolved slot.

[joqiza]

[joqiza]

that has to be the terrorist w/ the free pick right? there's no other possibility unless toogeloo was faking who he saved on?

[joqiza]

New plan: Vax cops someone that is not Toogeloo, Bell, Bingle, or Cephrir (obviously). We kill everyone that isn't one of those 5 and hopefully win the game.

Seconding this! my full mechanical thoughts in 4048

Once we're all ready I'll put down my vote

[joqiza]

I... don't think so? I think IV shouldn't target anyone? Johnny should still be able to nuke, but his nuke should essentially be leashed by the conftowns tomorrow? It's not like he can go really go rogue without scumclaiming, and even if he does we have DeasVail to intercept?

I might be missing something mechanically but if you assume Vax = town, then the game seems fairly close to being mechanically locked? Vax just finds another conftown dayvig and then the remaining dayvigs in the PoE resolve one another.

[joqiza]

I'll vote but I want to get on the same page with the IV night action first.

@Bingle, Bell caught VFP with Fallout Shelter n1, Vax has an inno (not Russian) on Ceph. I believe those are the results we have altho might be forgetting something.

[joqiza]

If those are your reads, shouldn't he just check Johnny instead? Isn't that inherently superior?

[joqiza]

My point is that IV stopping Johnny is actually bad if Johnny is town.... which is still possible.

Like yes if we stop him from nuking that's great if he's scum but it doesn't change the fact that we have to resolve him?

I feel like it's just straight up better to let him have access to a nuke but tell him exactly who he needs to nuke and if he goes against that then his missile gets intercepted?

He dies in every situation tomorrow unless he gets cop checked and innoed but we can still use his nuke if he's town

[joqiza]

Can Bell and gorilla engage me on this I want to hear from them

[joqiza]

Like I know I'm being a stickler / no funzo but I think we are pretty close to having this game won mechanically, now that scum only have 1 nightkill

[joqiza]

IV sabotaging Johnny's silo mildly improves outcomes in the case that Johnny's scum (doesn't even improve outcomes that much, because we can have Bell or some other locktown direct his nuke or else it gets intercepted)

IV sabotaging Johnny's silo drastically worsens outcomes in the case that Johnny's town (we lose an extra resolve opportunity)

it's about the expected return

[joqiza]

Church what do you think scum!Johnny does tomorrow if he has a nuclear weapon. tell me exactly what you think he is going to do with it

[joqiza]

here's the answer: he does exactly what a consensus of Bell/Ceph/Vax/Vax's clear tells him to do or else his missile gets intercepted and he fucking dies

[joqiza]

if johnny "forces" deasvail to use his intercept it's not a big deal

losing the intercept is not a big deal

because scum only have TWO MEMBERS LEFT

if johnny forces DV to use intercept, dies, and the last russian goes rogue?

sure, they can get their missile through

BUT THEN WE'VE WON

[joqiza]

Yeah, actually, you're right that having fewer nukes means we have to have 1 more person alive which makes endgame harder.

I also don't think vax's target should be predetermined, I don't think it's at all likely that mafia would choose to NK them over the doctor, but I think there should be flexibility so that can't happen. Maybe give him a pool of likely town to check?

Yep, exactly

And I agree, I think he should check in the pool of people with nuclear weapons capabilities (myself + all the silo claims)

[joqiza]

I'm not gonna harp on the check I don't think the +EV difference there is as big, but I will argue very strongly that IV should do nothing tonight.

[joqiza]

And unless there's a better action someone can think of for Bingle, I'd even say that Bingle should check IV to ENSURE he does nothing, given that Bingle can't track the nightkill.

[joqiza]

okay i'm off the mechs soapbox, sorry

[joqiza]

I suspect there's a breaking strategy here, if I can just sit down and diagram it out. Don't have the energy rn (was a big day for me) but will tackle it this evening.

[joqiza]

.__.

[joqiza]

i think we might have auto now?

[joqiza]

alisae i really enjoyed playing w you :3

[joqiza]

@DeasVail, when you read this, don't intercept the missile until we've had the chance to discuss. I believe we may have mechanical autowin, I'm just checking a few things now.

[joqiza]

PLEASE READ THIS POST AND TELL ME IF YOU AGREE -- IT IS ABOUT AUTOWIN

I believe we win the game if we enter the night with the pool of the following 5 people:

innocentvillager
Cephrir
Vaxkiller
gorilla(*)
JohnnyFarrar(*)

* mechanically, it doesn't matter which two unclears we take, as long as they have missile silos. I'd recommend gorilla/Johnny but it could just as easily be Titus/Save the Dragons. The conftowns should pick, of course.

- In the example above, Vaxkiller checks either gorilla or JohnnyFarrar. This establishes a CC between Vaxkiller and someone else. If he gets a red check on Johnny, then Vax/Johnny are CC'd. If he gets a green check on Johnny, then Vax/gorilla cc'd.
- We win the game from here because we have the ability to resolve both slots in the CC. In the case of an inno on JohnnyFarrar, gorilla nukes Vax, and then Johnny nukes gorilla. In the case of a guilty on JohnnyFarrar, Johnny nukes Vax, and gorilla nukes Johnny.
- It doesn't matter who the mafia kill--we still win. If the mafia kills Vaxkiller, then Johnny/gorilla resolve each other.
- In the craziest edge case, where Vaxkiller is actually scum missile silo fake claiming espionage, we still win, because he always gets nuked in every scenario, and he can't kill every other villager.

IF EVERYONE AGREES THAT THIS IS AUTOWIN, WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO REACH THIS GAMESTATE TODAY

WE HAVE ENOUGH ELIMINATIONS THAT WE CAN KILL EVERYONE EXCEPT THE POOL OF FIVE

PLEASE WORK THROUGH THE LOGIC AND LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK

[joqiza]

I confirm. Exact nuke order doesn't matter to me so I'm fine with following Bingle's proposal. Altho my prediction for second scum is StD... if I was right about Church/StD yesterday I'm gonna be stoked.

But yeah, let's wait for Alisae's flip and let everyone check in.

@Johnny once we've started, I think you just need to wait for me to shoot and then you can shoot me, you don't need to wait for StD's flip.

[joqiza]

Titus, to be clear, you confirm that you'll follow the plan, correct?

I don't mean to browbeat, but making sure that everyone is on the same page is basically the most important thing I can do from here on out because

it literally guarantees town victory.

[joqiza]

@Titus I challenge you to find a single scenario in which we enter the night with the pool of 5 people I proposed and in which we lose the game.

[joqiza]

......

Scum!Vaxkiller kills Ceph during the night, OK.

Vaxkiller will need to have a report the next day on one of either gorilla or Johnny.

VAXKILLER IS CCD WITH JOHNNY IF HE GUILTIES JOHNNY, AND IS CCD WITH GORILLA IF HE INNOES JOHNNY

HE GETS NUKED BY HIS CC

SCUM!VAXKILLER CAN NEVER ENDGAME

[joqiza]

Like Titus what you said is what might happen IN A UNIVERSE WHERE VAX ISN'T ESPIONAGE AND GORILLA AND JOHNNY DON'T HAVE NUKES

[joqiza]

I'm on my phone at work rn but just imagine I inserted that Jackie Chan wtf meme here.

[joqiza]

As much as I'd like to nuke StD myself, let's just stick with the nuke order that Bingle set out. This works as long as every villager understands and sticks to the script.

Oh, and we do have one "mulligan" during this day phase because we also have the elimination by vote. With all the nukes plus the day vote we actually have one more resolve opportunity that we don't even need. But let's not push our luck.

[joqiza]

Isnt the only reason titus is still alive chirch's magical townread on her

Yeah pretty much. If Titus flips scum I'll feel pretty dumb for letting that sway me. But I sort of think that might've been TMI spew. She should die anyway tho.

[joqiza]

Vaxkiller when you get a chance, I want you to review your mod PMs and confirm for us again that you have clears on Cephrir and innocent villager. Not that I really doubt you, but I want to absolutely preclude any kind of slippery oopsies/takebacksies on the final day.

I've confirmed on my side that there is no troop duplication outside of the terrorist, so since Robert died with counterespionage the Russians cannot have that role mechanically, therefore unless he gamethrew any reports could not be tampered with.

Just making sure we're dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's here.

[joqiza]

gg all! I enjoyed playing w/ and meeting many of you folks.

[joqiza]

i had fun too despite the toxic moments

[joqiza]

it was mostly in the first couple days then it got better

[joqiza]

i liked how samantha thought cephrir's avi was a deer that was my favorite part of the game

[joqiza]

Was it? *peeks again*

I forgot that Marry was eaten by a dog and was also scum.

*Pokes Joqiza*

Just as I said the whole time.