Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[catboi]

[catboi]

hi

nya

[catboi]

I want to relax and not stress myself this game, looking for a partner with low expectations

[catboi]

I want to relax and not stress myself this game, looking for a partner with low expectations

coward won’t pocket me

Who says I need to try hard to do that~

[catboi]

I want to relax and not stress myself this game, looking for a partner with low expectations

I've already settled for you once, might as well do it again.

I'm not a very demanding player in any case.

I'm glad the game started so I can finally say: LMAO I'm never dancing with you

[catboi]

I'm accepting the first proposal thrown my way. Maf don't even think about asking me, thanks! I'm here for a good time! We are having fun, and if you don't wanna have fun this game, don't ask me

Trying to look town?

[catboi]

Actually, I take that back.

You are 100% valid lmao

And here I was about to post an extended "lmfaooo" in response to you

[catboi]

FTR cat my plan has been to treat every gent equally without much regard for meta/history, it was the preemptive complete rule-out that I scumread. There is a lot of incentive to that pairing as town.

but also a gigantic negative and lmao @ the actual likely outcome.

For personal preference I find the prospect of pairing with someone I'm more familiar with

boring

, although in-game reads actually takes higher priority.

But of course, the answer to "Do I want to give the person who reads me incorrectly in literally every single game the power to instantly vig me at any point in time" is a resounding hell no.

[catboi]

i have a scumlean on one (1) gent right now

which is kind of useless considering there's 8 of us but w/e

Same, actually

[catboi]

prism obvious town~

[catboi]

The scumlean was marcistar but I didn't want to bully her right away in the intimidating world of theme games and I actually think 113 is decent enough that I don't hold the scumlean anymore.

[catboi]

okay now i read catboi as scum.

Yesss, give me your scumreads (ﾉ≧∀≦)ﾉ

prism obvious town~

I am very tempted to intentionally fail this.

cackling

[catboi]

catboi, answer me honestly, are you maf or town?

Why even ask me that question? I'm not going to answer anything but town.

[catboi]

I actually have liked firebringer so far, which is surprising and possibly foolish

[catboi]

NVM, I find both marci and guiltylion suspicious now.

[catboi]

NVM, I find both marci and guiltylion suspicious now.

why is marci back to scumreads for you?

193 was a rather generic sounding read adding suspicion to a person who was a popular target.

I don't particularly have a read on Andante yet but somewhat expect her to attract scumreads in the early game like a magnet based primarily on playstyle over anything else. In the case where she's town she's an ideal target for scum to pick on.

[catboi]

in 174, andante said "I SR a bunch of gentlemen, I wouldn't be surprised if 4/8 of them are maf". like, it's obviously saying that she has so many scumreads within the gentlemen, she wouldn't be surprised if all scum were gents. and what does guiltylion do? he chops off that part of the post, which is literally right there next to the part he does quote, and posts 180, which frames andante's post as a pure mathematical probability question when it clearly wasn't that, and the context was right there and he removed it and whyyy

but the reason I asked Andante that is because the idea that "4/8 of the gents are mafia" (which actually should be 4/7) is so probabilistically low that it's a ridiculous thing to claim to believe when you have no information at this stage. I don't care how many gents you're scumreading, the odds of it are so low in a vacuum that no one should be saying they think all the mafia are in the gentlemen, I can't grok that as an Intellectually Honest belief. I don't think the context changes anything about my question, that's why I chopped it off. I have a pretty math-y attitude towards these things and Andante's claim is extremely questionable, for me the context changes nothing about the part I quoted and I assumed it wouldn't for anyone else either.

for the record, if I'm mathing right, the odds of 4 mafia gentlemen is like 1%. it changes slightly from an informed perspective, but still

Is improbable speculation a sign of a mafia alignment? This feels like a gotcha more than a legitimate line of inquiry.

[catboi]

im sorry idont have many other opinions rn

I wasn't asking you to have more opinions.

[catboi]

speaking of scum have big incentive to partner with scum.
LLD said she wanted to. And bearing with the flame i will get for saying it.
I don't want her paired with Taly at all.

It would be -EV for her to pair with the IC as scum. But she doesn't have agency in the choice so it doesn't mean much to me.

Is improbable speculation a sign of a mafia alignment? This feels like a gotcha more than a legitimate line of inquiry.

not necessarily, that's why I used a motivating example and get a response from Andante. It's not a 'gotcha' it's a "is this

actually

what you think?". If absolutely nothing else I'd want Andante to look harder at the other ladies, because it's almost guaranteed at least one scum is a lady.

I don't like that you're acting like I was straight up pushing Andante over this, rather than interpreting my post as trying to sort her.

*shrug* I'm calling it like I see it, it looked like cheap tactics to me. Call out someone expressing a ridiculous belief, say "you can't actually believe this! It's improbable!", use that as basis for suspicion. I don't think someone suggesting an improbable scenario is more likely to be scum, at least in the early game.

[catboi]

wait should i leave the dance when my pair is made?

What? No. Shouldn't be a consideration at all in first dance.

[catboi]

catBOI, who do i propose to?

I think Prism's offer is fine (my earlier stated townread was primarily a joke meant to provoke her because I could not resist being annoying, but I do lean that way regardless for reasons I will absolutely not bother to explain)

I actually think the decision isn't worth stressing over as much as an IC, though. Aiming for a townread ultimately just means you'll be highly probable to be a nightkill anyway.

[catboi]

You should find a partner that enables how you play the best

So that really depends

I'm also assuming that town gets zero say in all the flips before intermission on this btw

I think it's more or less optimal to skip first dance

[catboi]

Okay then, tell me why I SHOULDN'T find Catboi town right now.

I don't actually think I've posted anything I wouldn't/couldn't do as scum. Maybe one thing but not something I would expect people to read me off of.

But also I would be hesitant to share a PT with you for hopefully obvious reasons.

[catboi]

what crossed your mind when you guys first saw this post?

I laughed, mostly.

Back later, don't spam up the thread too much while I'm gone, ciao~

[catboi]

hopefully obvious reasons.

I'm all furry ears.

Let me work this through:

as a self-described "poison apple" in neighborhoods I've watched you run games from behind the scenes as scum despite low output in the game thread, including a game in this very format where you endgamed because you had the wool pulled over your dance partner's eyes.

In the recent anonymous dance format games, I found there was a tendency for scum to buddy up to highly visible town early. My own preference was to hold back until I found a partner I felt decent about.

Obviously if I were dancing with you I'd be on guard. But no one ever heads into these games expected to get fooled. And I think the gap between skepticism and overconfidence isn't actually that big - believing you won't be conned just makes you more vulnerable to being conned. And I know that ultimately I'm actually pretty easy to manipulate. I'd also expect you'd relish the opportunity to try to put one over on me.

So consider me apprehensive.

(I do hope the meta/personal history talk isn't too impenetrable to those unfamiliar with it, I hate when that sort of discussion dominates games because it inevitably ends up shutting certain people out. I've tried my best to make it legible to others).

[catboi]

I didn't belabor the argument with GuilyLion because it was an early ping from a singular post and any justification was mostly irrelevant. Was also wary that he seemed to surrender the read a bit quickly. But I like 380 392 and 395, so...not as suspicious anymore.

[catboi]

azround if ppl want to talk

Hi how's it going

Do you have feelings on *waves arm* all of This

[catboi]

taly
galron, gl, lld
datisi
catboi, prism, andante
rh9, dragons, cabd, mala
alyssa, fb, marci

top 3 + bottom 3 only ones that have thought behind rest is kind of hand wave

...Galron? I don't think this is a Heart Shape performance (and I think that was probably an off game, anyway) but I struggle to see how he's done anything particularly town-indicative.

hey guys ^^ just finished my microbio exam and I'm going to be reading everything that's been posted. It'd be nice if someone could give a brief explantiaon of what has happened though


(17 pages also?!?!)

Hello! (*＾▽＾)／

Not much has happened, really, there's been some back and forth between people, some preliminary suspicions, but only one pair so far, mostly standard day 1 stuff.

[catboi]

Catboi
I also saw catboi was sus of marci ;( you probably explained it, but could I get your thoughts on her as of now?

I've played a few games with marci now (I was an SE in her first newbie game! Which was close to a year ago now, my gosh time flies) and I've played with her a couple times since then. My general feel was that she started this game awkwardly and her reads since then have been a bit cautious/trying to fit in with what other people were saying. From what I've seen she has more enthusiasm early as town. Perhaps that's an unfair expectation to be placing on her in a large theme game with many experienced players, some amount of increased hesitation would be understandable from a town POV, but the game is young and my preliminary suspicion is on her.

[catboi]

Let's set Marci aside for the moment.

What's your read on the ladies? Who would you like to see left out in the cold?

I have very few reads on the ladies. I think Prism's town. I think Andante is probably town. Those are two of the names I'm more familiar with. Everyone else is TBD right now. I wouldn't feel comfortable naming a target for elimination. (although I do understand your dislike of that GuiltyLion post)

[catboi]

Let's set Marci aside for the moment.

What's your read on the ladies? Who would you like to see left out in the cold?

I have very few reads on the ladies. I think Prism's town. I think Andante is probably town. Those are two of the names I'm more familiar with. Everyone else is TBD right now. I wouldn't feel comfortable naming a target for elimination. (although I do understand your dislike of that GuiltyLion post)

To be honest, if you really HAD mind melded with me on my dislike of the GL post, I'd feel a lot better about your alignment.

Since you're awake right now, this is your one special chance. There's not a lot of other people you can ask in a scum PT to try and read my mind.

Why do you think I disliked the GL post and/or why did you dislike it?

Answering in immediacy provides you some potential mindmeld stuffs.

Initial reason for me was that he looked to cede ground on his read of me, coming up with reasons to reverse it when he'd gotten some egree of pushback on the scumread, somewhat similarly with Andante.

Has a bit of an overly constructed feel where it's trying to hit commentary on multiple people but making trivial distinctions that ultimately don't mean that much?

[catboi]

We are going to win because Taly is the best but then I remembered that Mafia might try to get rid of you and then I was sad.

am I being too naive in thinking this just feels tremendously fake in an obvscummy way

RH9 do you have any completed scumgames anywhere you can link to?

He has written a lot of posts as town that sound tremendously fake. (I do not have a read on him in this game)

[catboi]

I have decided that I think Alyssa is the most interesting lady. This is not a read.

[catboi]

I think you're scared of me.

That is, ah, a pretty wild assumption.

[catboi]

made me want to rant about the people me and lily play with.. but i wont.

i think i generally get more sarcastic when im stressed/bored tho, i dont think its a main part of my personality usually
in the way ur looking for guilty lions.. if its typical marci style..
shes gonna compare it to people who i fucking hate. people who i purposefully get snippy at because theyve done too much, that i cant be nice.

in the me + lily era there, i ignore their "main bandwagons of the day" and their "town cores" and just vote who i genuinely sus, meanwhile nowadays i do sort of the same thing but i literally just..
vote and then leave and only explain if someone asks :/

For what it's worth, I would advise not overreacting to expressions of suspicion in pre-dance, it's not worth worrying about until votes are on the table. (let's call this the Roden effect). Just keep playing and doing your own thing, and if you are town I should be able to figure it out eventually. ( ﾟ▽ﾟ)/

[catboi]

I actually don’t understand anyone townreading me and yet I’m not concerned that much about any of them. Kind of strange usually when I don’t understand I get like fos eyes and right now I’m like “meh”

Maybe scum think it won’t matter to throw town reads at me because they expect me to suicide anyways
Who knows

You just can't help yourself from being towny. That or you're on a highly motivated scumteam.

I agree with this so much. Mindmeld moment! Andante is so getting a TR from me.

This is going to sound extremely dumb but I feel like the exclamation mark is the scummiest thing RH9 has posted.

Catboi -the heavy (guy actually has larger scumrange from my memory and could pocket a lot of people and I’m watching him….well a bit. I read most of what he is saying)

>He doesn't know

I have a bunch of things I want to try on this setup as scum but sadly have not been given the opportunity to this game.

[catboi]

i know it's not exactly the topic of discussion right now, but before i forget, i do wanna point out that i liked galron's 665. kthxbye

Eh, I could see that thinking on a conventional setup, but in a quasi-nightless game?

[catboi]

Nice, I think I have a hard scum read already

And no it's not Firebringer

I also don't think it's useful to out immediately

How would you feel if I asked you to dance right now

[catboi]

Dancing with catboi seems like it would be really similar to dancing with mariar

Sounds like a fun challenge

Lmao, I asked that right before I got to this page.

I don't think I am remotely similar to her but the idea intrigues me.

[catboi]

I should say I actually did have similar concerns to GL with the one particular line from LLD's 566, trying to more self aware about these things and pressing me to win her favor at this point in the game gave me a bit of paranoia because I

could

see it as an attempt to make me view her favorably.

I have not had a problem with anything else she's posted, though.

[catboi]

i wish i could dance with a gentleman

same tbh

[catboi]

I have not had a problem with anything else she's posted, though.

can you give an earnest reply to the points I raised in 678? Namely:
- LLD saying her confidence was an exaggeration as a "test" yet then somehow not liking my reaction in stating that she had no reason to be so confident that it wasn't a town post,
- LLD saying my subsequent posts were "flailing",
- LLD's dislike of the post somehow only amounting to "GL didn't explain his consensus-y reads" - reads which I actually ~have~ explained in greater detail in other posts in my ISO, some before any consensus was formed!, instead ignoring those posts to zoom in on one particular hipfire snapshot reads post I gave in response to Datisi explicitly asking for one.

You really don't see any issues with any of that? I'm kinda tilted seeing LLD get towncred for these pushes

Pushing with exaggerated confidence as a test is entirely within her wheelhouse as town, and I feel like you're being a tad reductive in how you're summarizing it? I don't think you asserting that you'd write that post as town somehow invalidates her "so-so scumread" becoming stronger based on you writing that - I can absolutely see someone not liking the way you responded.

Using exaggerated language isn't significantly AI either (I know psyche had some MD post that scum were slightly more likely to accuse people of flailing but this was eons ago in site meta and flailing isn't even that common in the lexicon anymore)

I also feel like your issue of her summary of her reads is reductive?

IDK. I'm still chewing things over.

[catboi]

okay ydra. not sure about u right now but ill revisit u later for tea and crumpets

@catboi u said i dont know earlier in response to my weak reasoning on why i think u could be scum here. do u not think u have a large scum range? I remember seeing u replaced into a scum game and u did fairly well (i think u died cause u couldn't salvage the slot but if u were in at beginning i thought ohh catboi could have nailed this game) wish i could remember the game from my memory >.>

No I do have a wide scumrange, it's funny for other reasons. Don't worry about it.

You're probably thinking of Hectic vs. FL, where I was in from the start as scum, managed to fool most people into thinking I was town, but FL had an unassailable scumread on me and there was a million mechanical claims from people that people were getting towncleared for. When the clear town in a stump game is correctly tunneling you you can't really do jack shit about it.

But also, my posts were

way

worse than they are here and I resorted to talking about anime just to derail that game

[catboi]

Potentially exposed to the new variant at work.

Marking myself vla for a bit, apologies but I'm gonna be a psychosomatic nervous wreck even though I'm pretty sure the positive coworker was negative last week when we had overlap with in office time.

More tonight.

best wishes hope you're all right

[catboi]

i expect more pairings soon we actually have a lot of people with alot of opinions at this stage which is a crazy to me. Feels like we are way ahead of where we would be, maybe i haven't been shitposting enough.

Lots of gents here too shy to send out offers of dances tho.

Game has a lot more serious nose to the grindstone tryhard type players than past dance games, from what I've skimmed of them.

For me personally, I've been slow to pair in the recent anonymous minis, but also a significant portion of the ladies are either people I don't have a read on or people I'd have trouble working with

I resorted to talking about anime just to derail that game

anime opinions tell u all u need to know about alignments

Post ur 3x3 and it will determine my read of u

[catboi]

Nice, I think I have a hard scum read already

And no it's not Firebringer

I also don't think it's useful to out immediately

How would you feel if I asked you to dance right now

I'd consider it but I wouldn't accept immediately

Alyssa, would you dance with me?

[catboi]

I was a fan of cat but looks like that's not happening.

So no clue. I'd be happy to pair with the former, unclear on the latter, but my point was just that Taly is even

more

insistent on PT activity.

I was serious with the stuff about our general incompatibility as players and finding it boring to pair with someone I know very well. (I prefer novelty in games, if the prolific alting wasn't a giveaway). You're also way more likely be demanding of me in a way I would find tiresome

I do still believe you are town, though.

I'm not paired yet, so nothing is settled. Were you serious about wanting to dance with me? If so, why?

I am honestly surprised that cat hasn't latched onto a scumread of me for the low effort; constant delays and indifference to play is historically an exclusively scum move for me. My motivation as town can flag but I am nowhere close to even meeting the baseline, and I'm surprised he hasn't commented on it.

I haven't noticed it being the case, you being V/LA explains at least somewhat not having 100 posts already

Was there a reason you mentioned this?

[catboi]

I have found myself agreeing with a lot of GL's analysis outside his response to being pushed by LLD. Felt similarly on angielily, for instance. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[catboi]

I was not referring to our pairing, which I long ago ruled out, in 801. I was referring to you/Taly, before remembering you/Cabd was better and you're both gents anyway.

Oh, missed the context of that being a reply to 800

[catboi]

Was there a reason you mentioned this?

Eh, that's the least restrictive part. I have hours blocked out entirely because of that, but the killer is having to divide my attention 4/5 ways. I like depth, not breadth. All of this is a me problem, though.

Pondering whether to scumread you for it but not really sure.

Nothing would bring me more joy.

[catboi]

I think if LLD is town who simply misfired on me, marci/galron are both playing like scum racing to see who can live off her coattails the longest lol

uh, why? assuming you flip town, a lot of heat is gonna be on lld. why would scum WANT to be tied to her there?

you think Marci and Galron are less suspected/likely to be limmed than LLD?

I don't think pairing with a townread player is likely to increase someone's longevity if they are scumread.

[catboi]

1 and get the beyond meat orange chicken

dang

[catboi]

That's something to come home to, all right.

[catboi]

I agree with this so much. Mindmeld moment! Andante is so getting a TR from me.

This is going to sound extremely dumb but I feel like the exclamation mark is the scummiest thing RH9 has posted.

catboi, explain.

Why do you think that it is 'going to sound extremely dumb'? You have like a 100% readrate on me.

First of all, I determined your alignment accurately in a total of two games, hardly a definitive sample. And I think the particular tells I used for those games are no longer applicable - they were essentially one time only deals.


In regards to this game, it sounds dumb because zeroing on a single mark of punctuation as something alignment indicative is basically a ludicrous idea. But the way you wrote that read extremely fake to me. I went back and checked your first game and you did make statements with exclamation marks several times, so I am almost certainly reading too deeply into the tea leaves in that regard.


Now, what does my read rate on you have to do with me thinking my read sounds extremely dumb?

[catboi]

Something_Smart replaces Cabd

Oh, it's definitely a sum slot now

[catboi]

*scum

[catboi]

lets all vibe with one piece intro/outro themes

You posted the wrong video

[catboi]

I felt like you would be more confident like you usually are. The words 'extremely dumb' felt insecure, which felt unusual. I felt that combined with your readrate, you would confidently read me.

That is a satisfactory answer. As said, I felt it was dumb because it focused on something incredibly minute that was unlikely to be convincing to most people. You not being able to keep current with the game has made it harder to read you. If it slows down it might be easier. But as said, the things I read you off in those other games are no longer valid.

[catboi]

the thing i do wanna throw out for him to discuss (and realistically for anyone else too) is my lily read. so, she was apparently struggling to get into the game. which like, fine, i get it, i've been there too. so marcistar says she's gonna make a readslist to help her get into the game, fine, and she posts 477. lily's response, 481, is just bland vague agreement. this rubs me very much the wrong way.

This is a good observation and somehow passed me by when I was reading. I had initially given her a pass for her initial catchup because even though there wasn't a lot of analysis because it felt like ~an attempt~ and I'm inherently going to be softer on a newer player in a game like this and give them a pass for the early game. But the reply you highlight does strike me as being very empty.


I don't thiiiink marci/lily are s/s, possible marci's response to pressure was genuine and I simply jumped to conclusions on her prematurely.

[catboi]

catboi should prob go as well since his reads have been pretty bad and thatll only help scum he could prob be someone who goes deep.

What reads of mine have been bad aside from my one on you?

[catboi]

I want catboi to answer my 929 first. Though, catboi does feel less heroic than usual. Usually, catboi is great to be around, but in this game, I am finding it hard to keep catboi out of my nullreads. I find that catboi is hardly doing anything indicative of Town or scum. I will be fine if catboi just ends up with Cabd. I trust Cabd to be able to properly sort catboi and help us figure out if catboi is scum.

This, however, is a completely baffling statement, on multiple levels.

1. It implies a higher level of confidence in Cabd as town than me. Even if you find it difficult to get a read on me so far, I have posted a

significant

amount more alignment indicative content than Cabd. I have no possible idea how you could be more trusting of him than me at this moment in time.

2. Cabd entered the game by declaring I was "obviously town" in his first post. What gives you the confidence he would be able to read me correctly, and if you have that confidence, why did you not comment on his stated read of me?

[catboi]

Part of me wants to play my IC role like a cop invest,

Datisi

!town suggested so

I don't think scum refrains to NK a town/town pair just for WIFOM... do they?

It's been discussed so much that now it will absolutely happen for any town player who isn't a threat to post themselves clear. (;´Д`)

[catboi]

going to be extremely difficult not to look at this game through a different lens

yeah

[catboi]

ily norwee how do you feel about an IC as a partner

Don’t sound bad.
But i’m not 100% in the game yet. So i won’t accept anything until i know what i’m doing.

Uh

[catboi]

Why do you think that it is 'going to sound extremely dumb'? You have like a 100% readrate on me.

First of all, I determined your alignment accurately in a total of two games, hardly a definitive sample. And I think the particular tells I used for those games are no longer applicable - they were essentially one time only deals.


In regards to this game, it sounds dumb because zeroing on a single mark of punctuation as something alignment indicative is basically a ludicrous idea. But the way you wrote that read extremely fake to me. I went back and checked your first game and you did make statements with exclamation marks several times, so I am almost certainly reading too deeply into the tea leaves in that regard.


Now, what does my read rate on you have to do with me thinking my read sounds extremely dumb?

whats ur read on rh9, this confuses me

I don't know. null-scum? I liked the post you quoted here but then ran into another one I had issues with and the body of work isn't enough for a townread.

also I did want to say, marci I'm going to reset and make sure I'm reading your posts in good faith and not just blanket ignoring/discrediting you, I get how that would be frustrating and despite a lack of ~pizazz~ in your early game, I don't think anything you've done has been especially disingenuous or unfair

I'm not sure we should be dance partners, I don't want to just accept and then stay tunneled on you and leave, that seems like it'd be a bad experience for you if you're town and it was unfair of me to try to use your slot as leverage to bully LLD into things I think would be suboptimal for her if she's scum

i was gonna say its a bit weird how u made a plan abt dancing w me and leaving right away and didnt wanna go thru with it, but this makes sense so nvm.
who do u think i should pair with, if not you?

im kinda attached to the idea of dying now tho like idk how to explain but i think sometimes theres town who, when left alive, make it so impossible to solve for scum, and i feel like thats me, so i wanna get rid of the obstacle. is this stupid idea?

I don't see why you'd assume you're such an obstacle that you need to go this early. For what it's worth I'm not interested in getting rid of you at this moment in time. Remember, don't give up! (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧

catboi should prob go as well since his reads have been pretty bad and thatll only help scum he could prob be someone who goes deep.

What reads of mine have been bad aside from my one on you?

565 "andante is probably town", 733, maybe 853 im not too sure on that one, ur (410, 454) and then never really talking to her again :/

I don't want to litigate every read here, but GuiltyLion has also expressed that he townreads Andante, and you don't have a problem with him. Why is it bad from me and not him?

The Prism read is, ah, under review.

With regard to Ydrasse, I questioned one read of hers I thought was odd and left it at the answer. There's too much backstory to go over in a post but mostly I'd rather leave her to her own devices and see what she does rather than try to get a read on her from conversation.

But, ultimately, is me having reads you disagree with a reason for me being scum? There's no reason I can't be town who just disagrees with you. In particular in the early game I'm still feeling things out and poking at people for the sake of seeing a response and will quickly change my mind based on new evidence. I don't care about being right in the very early game, I just want to get conversations started.

[catboi]

Norwe am I townreading too quickly

Correct

[catboi]

I would endorse GuiltyLion accepting marci's proposal at this point in time, but I also wouldn't mind her pairing with her friend anymore either.

[catboi]

I will probably be dramatically curbing my posting volume for the next few days to allow us to hear from other people. Hopefully Malakittens is able to catch up if she hasn't abandoned the game.

[catboi]

Are you kidding me

Who fought with cabd that’s he’s out of the game

;——;

Wasn't anything in-thread. Might not be game-related. Or might be. Who knows.

---

i'm reading catboi's posts and they all seem fine and dandy but there's this voice in the back of my head going "what if he's scum though??? huh??? then what???" and i don't get it aaaaah

Realistically that's probably always going to be there for me, I don't have to be in an endgame pair. (not having to potentially deal with ELO would be very welcome, actually. My track record in such situations is miserable)

---

now that i think about it, i'm a bit nervous about norwee declining to pair with the ic

the town norwee i know is reckless and he lives on the edge

scum!norwee knows that pairing with the ic is Bad

The way he phrased it looked like fake nuance. He claimed to not want to accept until he knew what he was doing. That would make sense for a normal pair. But for pairing with the IC, town shouldn't

need

to know anything - their partner is confirmed town, everything else is irrelevant.

---

I think both our current pairs are probably T/T. Somewhat less concerned with how other pairs shake out.

I think that if Titus is scum then GL is definitely town, and I think I always flip Titus before GL. Not saying she should be left out of the dance. I probably put that on something_smart at this point, don't strongly want to leave anyone else out.

1/5

[catboi]

I probably put that on something_smart at this point

Is this because of Cabd?

Yeah. Going to be difficult to get over his entry to the game. But most of the other ladies I'd want to carry over more. I'm perfectly willing to give you space to post, but realistically it would be incredibly hard for you to ever reach the level of "okay I'm comfortable with S_S endgaming here"

---

Strongest townread among the remaining ladies is Alyssa but it's not a particularly confident one. I proposed to her mainly because I thought she'd be interesting to talk to. I think GL's flurry of posting under the possibility that he'd be left out of the dance was decent, but would gain more confidence in the read by flipping other players first. Basically none of the others are endgame material right now.

From the gents, Datisi is posting well, although he always posts well. Still probably top town for me among those remaining. I actually think marcistar is probably second behind him at this point. Then, I townlean Galron for reasons I'm not going to explain. RH9/STD are last for me, which is not a scumread but a "I am doubtful I am ever going to be able to confidently townread them in this game" read.

The math on this setup is slightly changed by going from 3 scum to 4 so that order of flips matters more. You need to hit at least once in the first 7 people you remove to not lose the game. Haven't put a ton of thought into the best way to go about determining that order.

2/5

[catboi]

Datisi is posting well, although he always posts well.

this is appreciated, but i don't recall you having experience with my scumgame?

>________>

[catboi]

if that was supposed to be just a compliment then excuse me because i have barely slept the past few days and i am iN TRYHARD MODE FOr now

>He doesn't know ((●≧艸≦)


No but really don't worry about it, I've seen some games is all


anyway I've already slipped up on my self-imposed post restriction with shitposting, going to step away from the game now, bye~ ┻┳|･ω･)ﾉ

[catboi]

I'm perfectly willing to give you space to post, but realistically it would be incredibly hard for you to ever reach the level of "okay I'm comfortable with S_S endgaming here"

From you or from anyone?

There are definitely people here who are capable of confidently placing me as town.

I can only speak for myself, if someone is sure you're town it'll be taken into consideration but there are not many other candidates for who I want to flip first right now.

---

maybe i should stop trying to tr people and just live on the edge and yolo propose to everyone

Without irony, I say go for it.

kinda disappointed in catboi's reads

Seems to be a running theme this game (also a good sign I'm town). What disappoints you? Do you think I should be townreading you?

---

I disliked Norwee gesturing toward marcistar in 1339 because it feels manipulative, like he's trying to win the favor of someone who won't want to leave him.

I feel like norwee would be getting more butthurt at getting incorrectly sussed as town. I hate that that's a Thing at all, but I can't really avoid thinking it.


I had exactly one Point of Concern with Prism before the exit from the game, which was her suggesting she'd be okay pairing me with Taly. Forgetting that we're both Gentlemen aside, it's a bizarre suggestion to make from her perspective because me being teamed with an IC is a totally guaranteed nightkill death if I'm town and basically a complete waste. (suggestion she'd be okay with me being with cabd was also a bit of a head-scratcher).

---

I think that Catboi is likely town from this, but I'm not entirely sure since I could see a world where Catboi could have pivoted towards attempting to pocket me using the Cabd thing as a springboard. I admit I'm also really not sure how to take the trajectory towards looking to pair with me in the first place.

You are probably the person I would be least likely to attempt to pocket given I have basically no experience with you and no idea of how you'd react to me.

For me, the thought process in proposing to you was motivated by not having many suitable choices. Some of the ladies were just outright someone I'd not want to pair with: Prism (too much baggage), LLD (too much potential for conflict), Andante (too impulsive). Know Andante had already paired by the time I had proposed but that was my consideration from the start. Cabd might have been okay if he was obvious town but he came on too strong, too quickly. Mala hadn't posted enough to bereadable, angielily in a similar situation - might have been interseting because I feel newer players are much easier to read, but would have liked to see more. Ydrasse was aggressively null at the time. GL I had scrapped with a bit early, had liked a lot of analysis, was somewhat puzzled by some of his response to LLD and was intimidated by the argument. Didn't solidly have a read on you, went and looked at some of your games to get a sense of how you play and if there was some meta I could use, thought it'd be interesting to talk to you. I didn't even really have much in the way of strategic considerations at the time.

3/5

[catboi]

I don't want to litigate every read here, but GuiltyLion has also expressed that he townreads Andante, and you don't have a problem with him. Why is it bad from me and not him?

anyone who townreads andante has bad reads,
i was working under the assumption me and guiltylions were gonna die together anyways so it didnt really seem worth the effort to point out his reads. does that make sense? (in world of me and guiltylions pair and then we instaleave, ull be alive still right..? so i wanted to give my read on u, and not waste my attention on someone who would die with me :3 )

That makes sense. But I wouldn't really want to flip you first at this point in time, think others probably feel the same - Don't go assuming things!

1307 catboi u seem more confident in ur reads on the gentleman list than the ones u have on the ladies list.. did u think all scum are ladies orrr..?

Not fully confident, but I would probably guess 0-1 scum in the gentlemen at this point in time. ( ｰ̀εｰ́ )


4/5

[catboi]

Math-wise, it is actually close to a conflip from my POV that there are 0-1 scum in the gentlemen, because I know my alignment and I know Taly's.

Galron read is the one I could most see myself getting bitten on because the reasoning is flimsy but I admit that, not saying he's locktown or anything.

[catboi]

I had exactly one Point of Concern with Prism before the exit from the game, which was her suggesting she'd be okay pairing me with Taly. Forgetting that we're both Gentlemen aside, it's a bizarre suggestion to make from her perspective because me being teamed with an IC is a totally guaranteed nightkill death if I'm town and basically a complete waste. (suggestion she'd be okay with me being with cabd was also a bit of a head-scratcher).

Weird reasoning to me. What is different about a you-me pair that does not apply to any other pairing I have with town?

Seems tremendously wasteful to just consign me to get NKed if town, from her POV. Would think I'm more worthwhile than that.

Math-wise, it is actually close to a conflip from my POV that there are 0-1 scum in the gentlemen, because I know my alignment and I know Taly's.

Galron read is the one I could most see myself getting bitten on because the reasoning is flimsy but I admit that, not saying he's locktown or anything.

I mean, when I said "there's 4 gentleman scum" people lost their minds and told me that's impossible, so wouldn't it also be not likely all 4 are ladies? Saying 0-1 is like.. yeah nah what's the point?

I can explain the math to you if you really want (I assume most people in this game aren't big enough nerds to care) but it is significantly more likely that there are 0-1 scum in the gentlemen from my POV than 4 scum from your POV. 0 is unlikely but still possible.

Seems to be a running theme this game (also a good sign I'm town). What disappoints you? Do you think I should be townreading you?

no but i think you sus all my trs and tr all my suses

Go on?

---

I think marci has moved into being pretty clearly town from her recent posts, not sure if people are skipping them or what but I feel like that ought to be acknowledged more.

Last post from me for the night. As I said, I'm limiting my output from here on out (although I cheated a little today). Back tomorrow. Feel free to leave me questions.

5/5

[catboi]

I can explain the math to you if you really want (I assume most people in this game aren't big enough nerds to care) but it is significantly more likely that there are 0-1 scum in the gentlemen from my POV than 4 scum from your POV. 0 is unlikely but still possible.

Yes I want the math. I love math. Like, why isn't it more likely just 1-2 on both? like, I can see why the gentleman statistically would not be more than 2 (still could be) but, I'd say 1-2 there, and then that makes it 2-3 for ladies. Or it's just 2 and 2 and they're gonna pair with each other and call it a day

Okay. I like probability and statistics, will try to make this simple but I don't want to spend too much time explaining how this is calculated. The way you go about calculating possible scumteams is using combinations, since the order of players in a scumteam doesn't matter for determining the number of possibilities - a team of me/you/fire/mala would be the same as a team of fire/mala/me/you, for instance.

So, looking at it this way, from the POV of someone who is not Taly, there are 15 slots they do not know the alignment of (they know that they're town and taly is town). This means the total number of possible scumteams calculates as follows:

C(15,4) = 15!/(4!*(15-4)!) = 1365

Now, we can find the probability of any particular grouping of scum among the Gents/Ladies by calculating the number of possible teams that have that composition.

From your point of view in the game, there are 7 unconfirmed Gentlemen and 8 unconfirmed ladies. The number of possible 4-scum teams among those 7 gents is:

C(7,4) = 7!/(4!*(7-4)!) = 35

Now, 35/1365 = 0.0256, which is a pretty small probability.

From my point of view, though, there are only 6 unconfirmed Gentlemen and 9 unconfirmed Ladies, because I know I'm town and I don't know if any of you are town. The number of scumteams where there are 4 ladies from my POV is:

C(9,4) = 9!/(4!*(9-4)!) = 126

126/1365 = 0.0923

This is still unlikely, but it's over 3 times as likely as there being 4 scum in the Gents from your POV, and a 9% chance isn't really insignificant.

The possibility of only 1 scum among the gents is where the number of possibilities gets to be very big, because you end up having to multiply the number of possible scumteams among the ladies with each possible gentleman they can be teamed with.

6*C(9,3) = 6* 9!/(3!*(9-3)!) = 6*84 = 504

That give a probability of

504/1365 = 0.3692

Which is pretty big! If you add together the probabilities for 0 and 1 scum in the gents from my POV, it's 0.4615, which as I said earlier, is nearly a coinflip.

And based on how I'm reading the game, it

feels

right. None of the gents have been that scummy to me. And in a distribution where scum is concentrated more significantly among the ladies, it makes sense for the scum to try to directly push the town among the ladies to reduce the amount of possible town/town pairs. I get a sense of that happening.

---

What's your exp with him

I don't think I've ever played with him before

Presuming this means catboi. Catboi gives enough detail to where you know where he stands and what he thinks, especially at the start. I'm a bit worried he'll get drowned out because of the pace (my bad). While he's not the best scumhunter (but still decent), he's a great person to bounce ideas off of. If he's town and you're town, I think it would be a happy pairing.

I can keep up with the pace perfectly fine, I just choose not to contribute to the noise level at this point in time, especially when I find it largely uninteresting.

---

1/10

[catboi]

After some contemplation, I don't think I care at all who I'm paired with anymore.

2/10

[catboi]

After some contemplation, I don't think I care at all who I'm paired with anymore.

2/10

Like, I see this post and I can't tell if you just want to be out of the PoE for being left or that you don't have any strong townreads or incentive to interact with the ladies even though you think there's 1 scum max in the gentlemen.

I don't know what your goal is.

I'm not really playing to endgame and I find the game as it is currently setup tremendously uninteresting to argue about. I'll pair with whoever, and if I think they're scum, leave automatically. Would be antitown, normally, but I think as things are people have mostly dug their feet in we need to see flips to provide any semblance of clarity and prove people's assumptions correct/incorrect.

Do you realistically think we will accomplish anything further with another 30 pages of bickering while the malakittens/angielily slots flake out? (,Ծ_Ծ,)

(I would almost never take my current approach as scum, not that I expect you to know that. I also am not particularly concerned with your read on me) へ‿(ツ)‿ㄏ

3/10

[catboi]

Cat

, what is your take on

SS

?

Th slot has barely done anything to be readable at this point. ┐(￣ー￣)┌

[catboi]

I've been traveling today and will have time to play for real later. Juet landed in Phoenix. I wanna say just based on the last page that Catboi/SS is a terrible idea it just results in catboi leaving early. S_S should only be paired with another suspected slot or preferably iced out of the dance entirely

My biggest concern at this point in the game is that there are a number of people who are looking entirely the wrong way and need to see some flips to get a better perspective. I would gladly pair with you at this point, but fear that it would potentially lead to a loss of agency in this game, which is my greatest concern at this point in time. I don't think it's too hard to see who's playing for survival but apparently not true for everyone. Feels like certain people are angling directly for having partners who will be advantageous to them.

I think there are interesting connections to be drawn from S_S based on the way several people have treated the slot.

5/10

[catboi]

And I don't really townread Cabd/SS but I do notice a trend that they're being pushed by several slots with understated reasoning. I also like the thought of pairing one of LLD/Prism/Cabd slot with Catboi because each of those three predecessors either had a strong townread or scumread of Cat.

I feel like any of those slots flipping scum would more or less clear me as town based on how they played around me, but again I'm not really that concerned with proving myself town here.

Running out of posts for the day, probably going to wait until later for further input

6/10

[catboi]

I'm he best scum player left in this game *blows on nails*

[catboi]

full day of halo infinity.
good use of my day.

how yall doing?

Not much, being bored with the game watching people spin in circles. Slept in and watched some football, went for a run

[catboi]

catboi, legit question:

hm. for what it's worth, taly, that does sound like decent reasoning to think alyssa is indeed town. i'm just wary because i think that she'd have an easier time pocketing me in the pt than guiltylion.

sorry x_x if i'm picking between guiltylion and alyssa, and i pair with scum, i think lesser damage will happen to town if that scum is guiltylion than if that scum is alyssa.

what do these two posts tell you about datisi's alignment?

Those seem...fairly consistent in their view? He's more wary of being fooled by you than by GL. Makes some sense given familiarity although I'm not sure why he'd be confident catching GL-scum given recent history.

I mean, it could easily be scum posturing to try to get the dance partner they want but I don't think it's impossible for town to write those posts.


9/10

[catboi]

something_smart should be the flip, in all likelihood. As said, I think the way certain slots played around cabd is telling. If it is indeed scum, I would flip Titus immediately and then probably norwee too. Still think Fire/Andante is T/T. Good luck.

[catboi]

GG Taly

Very happy for you to pull this one out

[catboi]

GG Taly

Very happy for you to pull this one out

Fuck I am too

Kind of on accident but I'm taking the mafia wins when I get them atp...

You might the right call in the end, that's what matters~ ٩(⸝⸝⸝◕ั ௰ ◕ั⸝⸝⸝ )و

[catboi]

alyssa not to be an ass, but ill say it anyway
u were not sane even with taly around, u and taly were both going crazy and u both formed like a junkie co-dependency of like "no we fine we going to quit drugs tomorrow its all going to be okay" before u both spiraled again and then came back to each other.

It was crazy to watch. I would never say u two kept each other "sane" lol.

(๑˃́ꇴ˂̀๑)

[catboi]

gg to gl and datisi for surviving the game long paranoia tunnel as well

[catboi]

The time I make up a cover story for my failed attempt to leave in the PT.

LMAO

[catboi]

This game was infinitely harder than it ever needed to be

It could have ended a lot sooner if we hadn’t gotten miselimed and you hadn’t ignored Titus’ dying reads.

don't

just don't

Sorry but I won’t ever apologize for speaking the truth.

could you possibly show the slightest amount of grace toward other players for once in your life

[catboi]

being misread in the game is not being treated poorly

it happens and everyone makes mistakes

you are absurdly abusive toward anyone who expresses the slightest disagreement toward you

it is utterly repellant behavior and you very clearly made multiple people uncomfortable but they don't speak up because they don't want to withstand a torrent of abuse from you

the absolute minimum amount of decency you could show is to show some kindness to people for getting it right even if they made mistakes. it's not like you were perfect. but you are incapable of clearing that very low bar because you are more concerned with being nasty to anyone you perceive as having wrong you. it is disgusting.

[catboi]

I considered holding my tongue out of decorum but frankly continuing to do so is just allowing her to get away with being awful unrebuked. I won't bog this down with further arguments, I have no doubt she will not change in the slightest, but I couldn't bring myself to be silent any longer and allow this to go unchecked. Apologies for the discomfort to anyone else.

[catboi]

sometimes I feel like I'm always playing with the same ~15-20 people just on a bunch of different accounts -.-

To be fair I don't really consider white flag to be a game I 'played'