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Post #1951 (isolation #1) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:08 pm
Postby Dannflor »
Okay, so I think Ircher like... kinda knew he was gonna die as soon as he came back to the thread for the first time.
When he first comes back after his initial 3 posts in 451, it feels like he's already on anti-spew mode. He picks one (presumably) townie to tunnel and then elaborates on no other reads. He limits his interactions with other slots and in general just feels incredibly interested in not giving out a lot of information. I think this makes sense that with 9 votes on him that while he's hoping to dissolve the pressure, he also probably doesn't feel too confident in doing that and wants to minimize the amount of information he gives out.
That makes me think that Ircher is going to feel incredibly awkward about mentioning or interacting with his teammates from this point onward. That is, he's going to feel even more self-conscious than usual about it due to the amount of pressure he's under, pressure he's under while needed to develop his *very first reads* of the entire game. This might mean he avoids mentioning or interacting with them much at all.
Vivax is, I think, a random townie that he just picked to hard push until he died and hopefully make it look like he was bussing. He doesn't move off of Vivax until he dies and reiterates Vivax as a very strong scum read™ throughout the day. I think he wants it to look like a bus. And I feel he'd feel more comfortable doing this anyway than picking a scum mate to actually bus as he might not be able to do that convincingly. This is all ignoring the vig stuff that comes later which also probably makes Vivax town. (If Vivax was scum fake claiming vig I think it would have unfolded entirely different but that is neither here nor there)
So, what other slots does Ircher hand out?
petapan
uncrowned
mastina
roden
nerocain
These are all slots Ircher directly calls out as he's creating reads. None of them have much justification behind them besides Ircher reading and then calling it out. Honestly, my gut here is that all of these are actually town and Ircher doesn't feel the need to build associations between these slots. The most he talks about any of these slots (besides vivax) is mastina, and I don't really think calling her reads bad and horrible but still calling her town is the most intuitive way to interact with a scum buddy?
In post 803, Ircher wrote:I haven't read much from Titus. I see she is voting me, so that's minus points. I also don't get why she thinks there is guaranteed one scum between Smart and I. Despite that, given the sample size of evidence, I do not wish to give a conclusive read at this time.
However, there is one other (non)read he gives out which seems to stick out from these other ones? This is the most detail he gives for any of his reads besides Vivax and ends with being nonconclusive.
Spoiler:
In post 872, Ircher wrote:petapan - Town
Ausuka - Town
Malakittens - Null
Nero Cain - Town
PenguinPower - Town
Lukewarm - Town
furtiveglance - Town
Roden - Town
Titus - Scum
Uncrowned - Town
Vivax - Scum
Andresvmb - Town
mastina - Town
jjh927 - Town
Ircher - Town
RCEnigma - Scum
BlueBloodedToffee - Null
Klick - Null
Something_Smart - Town
Ydrasse - Null
fireisredsir - Town
These are my reads.
not very many posts later, Ircher has slid Titus into his scum reads without further explanation. *this* feels more like the soft distancing and awkward handling of his buddy's slot that I would expect from Ircher under this much pressure.
Spoiler:
In post 970, Ircher wrote:petapan - Town
Ausuka - Town
Malakittens - Town
Nero Cain - Town
PenguinPower - Town
Lukewarm - Town
furtiveglance - Town
Roden - Town
Titus - Scum
Uncrowned - Town
Vivax - Scum
Andresvmb - Town
mastina - Town
jjh927 - Town
Ircher - Town
RCEnigma - Scum
BlueBloodedToffee - Scum
Klick - Town
Something_Smart - Town
Ydrasse - Town
fireisredsir - Town
Spoiler: a case on titus
I will also say that a few posts later he revises this reads list to simply list Vivax, my slot, BBT, and Titus as scum. Generally, I think scum making scum team guesses tend to put at least one partner in there? I would expect that to be even more true of a slot that thought they were going to die. I know I'm not scum. BBT isn't scum. I don't really think Vivax is scum. Titus is not only the only slot left by PoE there but also the slot that has the weirdest trajectory by Ircher??
As far as Titus' actual posts go, they just seem overly careful? I get a sense of just being overly aware of how she's being perceived (and yes that extends to the more recent drunk posting.
Post 201 has a weird LAMISTy phrase in "generates wagons so not gunna fight this," and 204 "dude's not town" feels overly explainy. Like Titus doesn't want to be misconstrued as defending Ircher by accident?
221 is nonsense and I KNOW Titus is known for her town moon logic but I really don't think this is real thought that town has? Like I don't think town thinks in terms of such agenda, especially when the simpler solution of someone new coming to the thread is right there. This feels more like an attempt to make the push against Ircher a little softer by splitting the attention with SS. And frankly, if you're not buying into the slip argument, I fail to see how you have a read other than null on a 3 post slot, which Titus implies is scummy in 243.
More recently, I don't like 1804. It doesn't really make sense to post this to someone you just voted. I don't have any sense *why* Titus is bothered by Roden shading mastina. It's not like Roden has any power in thread, and as far as I can tell Titus is onboard with Roden!scum? It feels more like an attempt to pocket Mastina and mastina is someone who is very valuable to pocket like that.
I also don't like 1813 or 1814 because again they feel more LAMISTy than anything else. It feels more like she wants people to interact with her while drunk so she can get town credit rather than actually wanting to solve the game while drunk. If she was in drunk mafia playing mode I would expect more like... idk rants about what she currently feels passionate about in game - not fishing for interaction?
anyway I've been writing for long enough so I should probably move on to thoughts about the rest of the game.
===============================
@LUKEWARM
I want to hear from you about your read that Mastina is "actually always scum here." That feels like unearned confidence on a slot I find to be an extremely difficult read. I read your case on how she interacts with her scum buddies, but it seems to boil down to "she had too confident of a read too early." And I don't really get why that doesn't apply to any of her other reads? Like I feel mastina always puts on an air of bravado with all of her reads and her being right on one doesn't necessarily convince me that she is always scum here and was TMIing. Do you feel like her push on you is particularly disingenuous?
Spoiler: scattered thoughts on other players
Furtiveglance I think is Just Town for his interactions with Ircher and what I find to be general good posting. I think Vivax hard pushing that as scum start of Day 2 is so wildly unintuitive that scum would be unlikely to even think about it. I guess Vivax does in general have an unintuitive playstyle so maybe I shouldn't town read him for that, but there are other reasons to town read Vivax anyway.
I town lean Penguin. It's not a very in depth read, I just have felt like he was slightly higher effort D1 than I've seen from him before and I'm ascribing towniness to that.
Roden, I really really thought was scum D1. His pop ins only to talk mechanics and ignoring what was actually going on felt forced and like he was struggling for ways to contribute content. But I have a hard time seeing scum play this day phase the way he has? I'm not sure why he feels the need to claim in the first place? It just seems overly risky and I would think that scum after a rather horrible D1 would be feeling more risk averse than not by today? He's also the counterwagon to Titus so there is a little bit of that factoring in here but all of his play today just feels really counterintuitive from scum. It's not consistent or polished or agreeable in the way I would expect scum to come into this day behaving.
I'm trying to think of other people who made a strong impression on me.
I remember being vaguely unimpressed with jjh. I find 1888 kinda LAMIST and it's the sorta stance that I would expect scum to be taking if Roden is town here. I also find 1887 kinda weird because it seems like all of these slots are at odds with each other right now and I would expect jjh to be playing more of an intervention/mediator role. I feel like he's spending a lot of time on Roden but it's more just meant to look like he was trying to figure out Roden's alignment instead of actually convincing anyone else or defusing the situation.
My feelings there aren't that strong though and I fully admit that some of that could be paranoia.
Klick I remember finding somewhat performative but otherwise *fine*
Andres I think has bad associatives with Ircher (largely in that Ircher did not mention or interact with Andres and the way that Andres interacted with Ircher felt very much like a bus to me) and I would be interested in wagoning here but only as like a pretty distant second to Titus
I don't super like Ausuka this game but I can't tell if that's because of outside influences or not. The interaction with Roden kinda left a bad taste in my mouth but I haven't really been able to put my finger on why.
I have surprised myself and liked fireisred's posting this game.
I remember liking ydrasse.
I think I'll stop the post here and engage in real time now because I kinda doubt the reads I just got from bingereading this game in a single afternoon are the most valuable reads I've ever produced
also what exactly are your concerns about malakittens? I did start skimming towards the end because its getting later, but I feel like you'd have more success and feel less "hopeless" if you articulated some worries here
because right now this is just a vanity wagon and I'm not entirely sure the reason for it beyond "uh oh here's a slot with less thread presence"
In post 347, furtiveglance wrote:I don't think I'm doing mental gymnastics when I say that I originally assumed 16/5, but now that Ircher assumed 17/4 without acknowledging that they were assuming that, I am now considering a 4-player mafia team with Ircher as one of those.
No, that's reasonable. I don't want to say too much before Ircher gets a chance to respond, but I think this is a plausible scenario, if not super likely.
In post 760, Something_Smart wrote:Ircher, please pick a productive line of thought instead of whatever this mastina shade is.
I don't find his posts about/towards Ircher super partnery. The latter feels like something that would be said in the scum PT if it were to be said.
It's not really strongly leaning either way though and obviously associatives aren't everything
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Post #1965 (isolation #9) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:31 pm
Postby Dannflor »
In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
I guess it kinda bothers me if you have something you feel strong about in S_S because I sort of doubt Titus and S_S are scum together?
which means I think one of us is wrong
Maybe it's too much of a jump to just assume that Titus would never make this post so early about two of her buddies but it just seems so brazen if so
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Post #1974 (isolation #11) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:44 pm
Postby Dannflor »
In post 1858, mastina wrote:Because in this game, I wouldn't have. It's that simple, really. I didn't say I couldn't, or that in general I wouldn't. I said that in this game I wouldn't.
I meant exactly what I said. I might bus to set Ircher up in general. But in this game I wouldn't. In this game Ircher would explicitly be worth less than me. And I don't bus scum who are worth less than me; I only bus scum who are worth more than me. So in this game specifically, I wouldn't have bussed Ircher. I would have strong reason to not have done so. (Specifically, because of knowing about CONTROL. A big, big thing about my scumgames is that I avoid doing the same ploy twice. I bussed Ircher in CONTROL, which means that I couldn't bus Ircher in this game because everyone would know about how I did so in CONTROL. Bussing the same player the same way in two scumgames would mean that if the game has literally any of the same players or literally any player who looked at the previous game, they'd make the connection. It's surface-level stupidity to think I'd do the exact same move twice for the same scumbuddy.)
ah your post reminded me of this that had stuck out while reading. this post seems to ignore the reality that I don't think anyone could've prepared for Ircher's apparent scum slip and the subsequent storm that followed. who is to say mastina would have continued with the ircher push if that would have happened? like it just ignores the reality that there are situations where it would've been optimal to bus ircher as mastina!scum and I think mastina should have enough self-awareness to know that
I don't think that's a big point against her because she makes these types of arguments a lot but this argument in particular bugged me
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Post #1978 (isolation #13) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:01 pm
Postby Dannflor »
I see your points - I think unfortunately the rather stubborn push on you isn't immediately alignment indicative. I think Mastina tends to dig in her heels early and often as either alignment, and it only becomes apparent over time how genuine her stubbornness is.
Definitely not a slot that I'm just not going to reevaluate until D4 or whatever
One, but not both, of {Lukewarm, Dannflor} are scum.
They are
not
scumbuddies, but they are
not
both town.
Their interactions already have me sure that they're not partnered together but both look like scum interacting with town, if that makes sense. One of them is town being interacted with by scum; the other is scum interacting with town.
This doesn’t make sense and you should be reevaluating more if you simultaneously see us both as scum interacting with town and as not aligned
Either you are just seeing exactly what you want to see or you are intentionally trying to create this narrative that shouldn’t make sense from your perspective
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Post #1994 (isolation #18) » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:55 pm
Postby Dannflor »
Like right now you’re discrediting both me and Lukewarm by calling us both strongly possible scum but simultaneously saying you can’t sort us right now
It feels like you’re only doing this because we disagree with you
If you really believe one (or as I think both) of us is town, why the hell aren’t you more curious about finding that out?
In post 1999, Dannflor wrote:Mastina I have this sinking gut feeling that you are town and that scum is currently playing around you specifically and pocketing you
Name names and I can humor you but I'm not going to respond to Titus/Vivax/Something_Smart as options.
Period.
Nor jjh, nor PenguinPower.
Name a name you think is scum playing around me/pocketing me outside of those and I will listen.
But not jjh/Vivax/Something_Smart/PenguinPower or Titus.
JJH is possible but I don't really scum read him, I'm just waiting for him to be more town. I'll admit I could be wrong on Titus.
I definitely think Klick fits the bill here. I think Uncrowned might possibly fit the bill here.
I'm not honestly sure beyond that but you have to realize that you are getting a bunch of passive support from people who aren't really chasing their own directions at all. Like Klick just seems to be in lockstep with you without any real unique pushes or thoughts of his own. Uncrowned has his own deal with Roden going on but I don't really understand what else he wants today.
I think from a game-state point of view its worrying that you're scumreading the entire Titus wagon or some combination of Roden/Lukewarm/Dann/Fire or whatever, because largely we're the only slots that are in conflict with you. And we all mostly town read each other. Fire hasn't popped in and didn't town read my slot before but whatever.
Generally, it's not that likely for scum to stick together in a block like that. psychologically, we would want to take slightly differing positions. and I think the passive support you seem to have points towards scum in that area rather than town because I think town tends to be a lot more curious
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Post #2111 (isolation #26) » Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:26 am
Postby Dannflor »
Klick, I’ll be honest I wasn’t really interested in engaging with you after you failed to engage with any part of my entrance to the game and instead just said “Dannflor scummy af”
That does not give me the picture that you are evaluating your reads in a curious way
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Post #2294 (isolation #31) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:04 am
Postby Dannflor »
In post 2115, jjh927 wrote:Now, Dannflor, do you want to talk about Klick
Anyway
I lean scum here. I find the way they developed reads throughout D1 to be a little performative? I suppose I should have done by homework to see whether Klick always does the giant list which they gradually strike out - but experiencing it for the first time I got the impression that Klick was "doing things just to do them"
I feel like there's a lot of posts that reinforce that to me too
Like 792 or 545 that are just observations? I think scum that goes unnoticed under the radar a lot are scum that are skilled at making observations without a lot of hard stances and reading through Klick's ISO I get the impression that they are doing stuff but not what they are doing? And the frankly the scum team of Dannflor/Roden/not-too-deep-deep-wolf feels... not very high-level for the amount of sorting Klick seems to want to appear to be doing?
I also find their Ircher vote, stating that they don't really have an opinion on the scum slip one way or another, a probable bus vote, but I realize I may be entering conf-bias territory with this point
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Post #2301 (isolation #33) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:10 am
Postby Dannflor »
In post 2298, Andresvmb wrote:Klick is such a bad push I don’t trust Dannflor very much right now. Their vote D1 in 269 is being forgotten all of a sudden, just as momentum was turning against Vivax?
Vivax had like 2 votes on them vs Ircher's like 7
I think it's perfectly sensible as a bus vote
I don't real as strong about this as say Titus and I'm willing to hear that I may be wrong
do you have other reasons for town reading them so strongly?
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Post #2315 (isolation #35) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:26 am
Postby Dannflor »
In post 2306, Andresvmb wrote:I don’t TR Klick “so strongly”, but a balanced accounting of Klick’s play D1 would have surely incorporated that vote. Instead, you’re focused on how performative the explanation for their reads was D1, and nothing else, which seems one-sided to me. And honestly, I intend to spend most of my time trying to figure out whether Titus makes sense as an execution here, because odds are that they’ll face immense pressure (way too many votes have piled on there both yesterday and today, and there’s been a lot of discussion about the slot). Klick just… isn’t going to get executed over several other suspicious slots today. So your push seems way out of place to me.
I did mention the vote - and I do not read it the same way you do. I don't think it necessarily indicates much one way or another, but I think it's completely viable as a bus vote. There's nothing about the timing that scream anti-partnery to me. Again, I mentioned this.
I am not pushing Klick. Hence my vote on Titus.
I am talking about my read on Klick because jjh specifically asked me.
I don't feel super strongly about my read on Klick so I'm putting what I think about Klick out there so that people can challenge me on that.
if you have other reasons to town read Klick I would genuinely like for you to explain them please