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Post #2292 (isolation #200) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:02 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2282, Something_Smart wrote:I genuinely have forgotten. Is there a reason Ausuka wouldn't have been a vig shot?
Vivax said he would not have a shot last night, but I guess he could have been lying.
I don't feel like he would have shot ausuka tho, given he was one of the people who voted Titus yesterday I would have expected his shot, if it happened, to have gone there
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Post #2293 (isolation #201) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:04 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2275, furtiveglance wrote:This game is getting exciting, but also frustrating. I'm at a point where I think I have a broadly correct poe of Dannflor (it should be Dannflor not RC btw Datisi), Malakittens, Something Smart, maybe Titus/Ydrasse, but it's hard to get those votes going. Let's see if we can revive the S_S wagon.
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Post #2296 (isolation #202) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:06 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1498, Vivax wrote:Preference remains RCE > Roden
Taking tinfoil on Ausuka & Titus for the legacy analysis from Luke (Ausuka being sassy semi-openscummer and Titus having a marked difference in characterizing Ircher's reason of absence from FG earlier on)
In post 2292, Lukewarm wrote:Vivax said he would not have a shot last night, but I guess he could have been lying.
I don't feel like he would have shot ausuka tho, given he was one of the people who voted Titus yesterday I would have expected his shot, if it happened, to have gone there
He said "I have to holster tonight", but it's not clear whether that was a mechanical claim or a statement of best play. If it was a mechanical claim, it was a lie (or an error).
He also expressed concern about a roleblocker, so he presumably was not being totally open about his plans. Similarly, if he feared a scum doctor, he might not have shot the most obvious target.
My original reading was that his second shot was more then 100%, but on the flip that was wrong.
My second thought was he dropped down to 50% to try and stop the bonus kill. Have not looked at any numbers to see if it would make sense for them to get a bonus kill if he was running at 50%
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Post #2310 (isolation #205) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:21 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2306, Andresvmb wrote:I intend to spend most of my time trying to figure out whether Titus makes sense as an execution here, because odds are that they’ll face immense pressure (way too many votes have piled on there both yesterday and today, and there’s been a lot of discussion about the slot).
Is "way too many votes have piled there yesterday" really a concern you have?
Out of 17 living players, 6 players voted there at any point yesterday
In post 2306, Andresvmb wrote:I intend to spend most of my time trying to figure out whether Titus makes sense as an execution here, because odds are that they’ll face immense pressure (way too many votes have piled on there both yesterday and today, and there’s been a lot of discussion about the slot).
Is "way too many votes have piled there yesterday" really a concern you have?
Out of 17 living players, 6 players voted there at any point yesterday
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Post #2321 (isolation #208) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:37 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2181, Vivax wrote:So I'll personally just lock mastina scum and advise town to listen to Luke. Who for some reason isn't already being listened to. Seems familiar, but 5head enough to be paranoid about, so it's excusable for a while. But this is just Luke town imo and has more clue than anyone else.
Vivax is the scum kill which makes no sense from me.
It's Luke.
Even if he had you hard townlocked (he didn't), it is silly to act like you would not kill him as scum because there are 3 scum alive. So unless you want to argue he townlocked you and anyone you could hypothetically be partnered with, this is ridiculous.
(Which, btw, if I was scum I probably still would have killed him after his read changed around on me for this reason, so I am not saying his kill clears me in anyways - just silly to act like I in particular needed to kill him)
In post 17, mastina wrote:Hi y'all, I'm gonna be fully transparent with this:
I am setting my productivity to 0% today.
You may call that anti-town as much as you want; you can consider it suspicious as much as you want. Which is fair. The scum extra kill mechanism is ludicrously strong and I am fully aware of the risks.
But I have very strong reasons for doing so. I promise that by D4, you'll know why.
I won't go 0% more than once.
But for ~reasons~ I need to go 0% today. Let's just say I'll become a scumhunting GOD.
Full transparency, part 2/3:
I am setting my productivity to 50% today.
On D3, I will be setting my productivity to 75%.
On D4, I will go to 100% and fully explain why I have done what I am doing.
I have a plan. I legit think that I can break the game with this and I promise that I will explain everything on D4 and explain why I have done what I am doing.
It'll all make sense then, and the scum won't know what hit them.
Remember when I said that there would be a big huge reveal on D4?
...I lied.
PARTIAL CLAIM: I am an investigative role and I have a result indicating fireisredsir is scum.
VOTE: fireisredsir
I'm not claiming what the result is until
after
fireisredsir claims here.
I'll be fullclaiming once fire has been locked into a claim.
LOL no you don't, hard counterclaim
im a reddit moderator, i can check if someone carried out a night action. i used it on mastina both nights and both nights she did not carry out an action. i just triple checked my results to make sure
25% + 5% each use
VOTE: mastina
For reference someone claiming to have targeted mastina the night Titus complex claim did, and if real would ha e caused it to fail
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Post #2446 (isolation #224) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:22 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2418, fireisredsir wrote:im a reddit moderator, i can check if someone carried out a night action. i used it on mastina both nights and both nights she did not carry out an action. i just triple checked my results to make sure
In post 2418, fireisredsir wrote:im a reddit moderator, i can check if someone carried out a night action. i used it on mastina both nights and both nights she did not carry out an action. i just triple checked my results to make sure
In post 2458, Lukewarm wrote:So Titus is claiming she has a role that failed, so nothing happened, but she fumbled 3 times trying to get that out there before landing solidly.
And it appeared to shift as we learned more about the exact way ydras ability worked.
Kinda sad we likely have to kill inside fire/mastina before we can kill her.
You're just desperate to kill me because I know you're scum.
Yes. So desperate you just quoted a post where I said I doubt I am trying to kill you today
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Post #2494 (isolation #231) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:39 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2489, Andresvmb wrote:Btw just so we’re clear - Titus always dies today. It’s fine if we all want to express a view on mastina and fireisredsir, but we’re not executing between them first. That would be ridiculous.
When mastina was claiming to have a result and fire was claiming to have an investigation result saying she did not act, we were going kill between them.
In post 2482, Dannflor wrote:Yeah I think it’s somewhat likely mastina could be town and also lying here
Dann/Titus/mastina lol
Please outline the scenario where mastina is scum, and fire it town, and got these results in a game with no multitasking
In post 2418, fireisredsir wrote:im a reddit moderator, i can check if someone carried out a night action. i used it on mastina both nights and both nights she did not carry out an action.
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Post #2523 (isolation #235) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:54 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2519, fireisredsir wrote:my bet is actually that scum have a watcher or something and she originally claimed to bait PRs to target her, and when they got a watcher result that i visited, and i started the day saying she was scum, she suspected i had some sort of guilty and tried to get out in front of it
huh.
this is actually a reasonable answer.
But that makes the scum team goon + goon + watcher + Ircher's fairly useless role, which feels wrong.
In post 2519, fireisredsir wrote:my bet is actually that scum have a watcher or something and she originally claimed to bait PRs to target her, and when they got a watcher result that i visited, and i started the day saying she was scum, she suspected i had some sort of guilty and tried to get out in front of it
huh.
this is actually a reasonable answer.
But that makes the scum team goon + goon + watcher + Ircher's fairly useless role, which feels wrong.
why are there two goons?
in your scenario:
Mastina did nothing.
Someone did the kill
That someone is then also a goon, or has a role so useless they decided not to use it in order to set up this gambit.
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Post #2538 (isolation #238) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:00 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2529, mastina wrote:Yes, but fire's claim seems awfully like he knew I couldn't have a role result on him and that he is making up a roleclaim to justify that--why target me twice especially when I didn't visit N1? When I said the reveal would be on D4? I made it clear I wasn't acting until N3-at-earliest, and the proof that I wasn't acting would be found in a genuine N1 result on me.
Based on his vote to kill you towards the end of the day, I think that the easiest answer is that he thought you were scum and was trying to catch you in a lie.
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Post #2550 (isolation #239) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:08 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2, Datisi wrote:players are not able to multitask unless otherwise specified, with one exception: if a non-town player has the ability to use more than one kill in the same night, the same player may carry out more than one kill.
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Post #2556 (isolation #240) » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:10 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 2548, mastina wrote:I had claimed the reveal would be on D4, not D3.
mastina, I will say this again. Based on your play, I predicted that if you were town the reveal would actually be day 3, because announcing day 4 and it actually being day 4 feels like a pretty silly move for you to make.
So, solving from the mindset that scum would not have seen through your lie there is kinda silly since they would have had 4 minds responding to your opening post, and at least 1 of them could have easily come to the same conclusion that I did.
Fire and klick (and maybe others, idk) said they thought that mastina was scum that did zero actions night 1 and night 2.
which seems unlikely in a game with no multitasking because would require her to do nothing and someone else to do the kill, so 2 goons with no actions + ircher's role feels unlikely to me.
Ydra and mastina up in my reads for the way their claims played out.
Mala also up (is based on the preflip of Titus)
Not a fan of Klick and Fire's reaction to Mastina's full claim, and both fell down. Klick probably more so then fire. lean scum klick, fire down to null feels about right. (I buy Titus's sudden scum read on Klick as her attempt to distance before she goes down, although her comments on klick have little to do with my shift there)
I feel like a reread of today will be needed for the middle crowd, was moving fast and was on my phone until just now. The middle crowd is largely people I ahve had no real thoughts on their alignment, and I feel like there are things to give me thoughts today from some of them.
In post 2513, fireisredsir wrote:mastina is the one who altered her claim after hearing my results
I made no alterations.
You did alter your claim today.
In post 2380, mastina wrote:PARTIAL CLAIM: I am an investigative role and I have a result indicating fireisredsir is scum.
In post 2487, mastina wrote:Last night, I targeted fireisredsir, but my N2 Cop Result was My Action Failed; I got not result.
I know you are already firing up your keyboard to say "BUT TECHNICALLY those are the same, because in the second one I said my RESULT was that my action failed"
But I really don't care about that technicality, because the information that you presented to the thread altered. From "I have a result implicating fire" to "my action failed, which I believe implicates fire"
So, in your head feel free to believe it did not alter. But from anyone elses pov it did.
In post 1302, Something_Smart wrote:Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).
For the exact same reason I know jjh is town and knew Ircher was scum and know Roden is scum.
So, yes, it is a form of TMI, but in this case originating from town. The town who have paid attention that are in the know, are in the know and basically are a gigantic masonry as far as I'm concerned. {Vivax, jjh, Something_Smart, PenguinPower} is a pool which never contains scum if I'm right, here.
jjh probably knows what I know. He may or may not agree, mind you, but he probably sees what I am seeing at least.
You and PenguinPower, if I am right, might be able to figure it out, too. But obviously, the less said, the better, because I don't want to give anything away which would let scum infiltrate the holy masonry.
mastina can you explain this yet? especially since you were wrong about Roden
Oh do you really want me to?
If you insist.
You're scum or a PR, period.
There's no way you're a VT in this game and if you claim VT I'm instavoting you.
In post 2331, Ydrasse wrote:i have a role where i can check to see if people have pts(EXCEPT THE MAFIA PT) and join them if they do
titus doesn’t have any pts
I am waiting for the mod. Technically accurate. I had a conditional action to masonize mastina if no one visited her. It resolves last in nar.
Furtive and myself (maybe others who knows) ask why she original claimed she had a partner who she was hiding, if she knew from her role pm that failure was an option for her role, and there was also a lack of PT.
Titus responds that really she just meant that she crumbed her Target, not her Currently Confirmed Mason Partner. *Totally Normal Mafia Things*
maybe it was supposed to be another claim originally
In case I died. I am loyal.
------
But here is the thing.
Her "conditional" part of her ability is a plausible way out of this situation if she is a scum who role blocked Mastina, and knew mastina was getting ready to reveal that she was roleblocked
This makes this series of posts make way more sense btw -- She was not waiting for the mod to tell her if her ability worked. She was waiting for mastina to tell us that she had been roleblocked, so she can be like "OHHHHH, THATS WHY WE DID NOT GET A PT"
In post 2411, Something_Smart wrote:If he's on mobile I can see him having trouble adding to PT's right away, even if he can answer questions. But he should be able to tell Titus the action succeeded.
No. I could have "succeeded" but no pt be made because of my conditions. Datisi cannot tell me.
In post 2416, Titus wrote:No. I could have "succeeded" but no pt be made because of my conditions. Datisi cannot tell me.
Oh I was assuming that would be considered failure. Ask him if he's going to make you a PT, he should be able to tell you that at least.
Fair. I'll do that.
[quote="In
Because,
"The mod said I get a PT if my ability succeeded, I don't get a PT if it fails, the day started, but I didn't get a PT, and i still started posting today under the assumption that it succeeded, but also the mod didn't/can't/won't tell me if my ability succeeded or not, and so I am just *waiting* -- indefinitely I guess -- for the mod to just open up the PT (because again, the only out come I am considering currently is that the mod must be too busy to open the PT for my ability that totally succeeded, and not ruminating on the fact that apparently my ability failed)"