Warrior Cats Mafia [Game Over!]
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hi friends
i have something like,
duck
freedom
lukewarm (apparently dann disagreed p heavily with this bc he thought val's entire iso was ali-theatre)
ss
furtiveglance
cephrir
a like cursory glance tells me that cephrir is probably most likely (underwhelming action around scum wagons, poor reads on flipped scum), but i don't really trust Nor's contributions and furtive kind of feels like they're kind of just hangin out and i don't have a read on it.
can we jam about ss a little? i think this resembles his towngame and if anyone has a stronger read than me i'd love to hear it.-
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there's some weird magic going on where i don't actually think scum have really been bussing? flipped scum had decent theatre d1 w [fire,catboi] and [ali,everyone] but none of it has beenantagonistictheatre. i feel like if val was theatre, it was almost like, deliberately bad theatre which doesn't really fit my vibe for this scumteam. consider, if you will for a moment, that scum have really not bussed in a meaningful way
In post 3139, Ydrasse wrote:
math was p caught out so i'm not sure this is super meaningful. interestingly while i'm rereading this i don't actually feel like toog's defence of math feels all that aligned? anyone feel like cross checking this?In post 4243, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 4390, Ydrasse wrote:In post 5263, Ydrasse wrote:
now that i'm thinking over this i feel like we're probably actually looking for a solitary busser who bussed reasonably well but i thought it was pretty interesting that both t3 and fireisredsir had 0-1 bussers!
one thing i'm really wary about w nor is that he had a wagon for most of d1, but then at the 11th hour the mastina wagon sprung up which has been revealed to be p heavily scum motivated. i'm on the fence about whether it's actually worth scum coming out to play this hard this early to save nor but it's got me thinkin.
i'm kind of deliberating whether there was another scum on kitty or another scum on mastina, they were both pretty surreal wagons in retrospect so i'm not really sure.In post 1872, Ydrasse wrote:
sorry this is probably not the explosive start anyone was expecting, i'm washed up and this game is hard.-
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thanks for reading, basically
- if anyone has any strong reads on SS/[nor,bnd,lukewarm] slots i'd love to hear them. if i had to gamble the game on it on short notice i'd call SS town.
- if anyone feels like going over toog's comments around the mathblade guilty i also don't really feel like they look particularly aligned with mathblade. that feeling surprises and alarms me.
i'll be back later!-
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sorry, it's not easy having so many thoughts arm wrestling in my brain. i am interested in thoughts on both of your slots i suppose, i did mean nor/toog/furtive there tho.-
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er like, most of it, in disconnected chunksIn post 5279, Lukewarm wrote:How much of the game did you manage to read over the night?
any reason in particular for this question-
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i noticed that you were on point yesterday but didn't clock you being so significant, thanks for that!In post 5284, Lukewarm wrote:
It seemed odd that the basis for sorting my slot in your posts were revolving around Val's interactions with Ali instead of me, yesterday, single handedly stopping your slot from being eliminated and killing Junko instead.In post 5282, the worst wrote:
er like, most of it, in disconnected chunksIn post 5279, Lukewarm wrote:How much of the game did you manage to read over the night?
any reason in particular for this question
Seems like the More Alignment Indicative Thing lol
So I was trying to see if you had read that part of the game yet.
i'm actually pretty wary of a busser atm so that isn't like massively helpful in keeping me comfortable abt you, sorry. a lot of stuff scum do late in the game is to try and squeeze through *just* enough elims to be the last person standing, so unfortunately i think that seems like a sensible thing to do regardless of your alignment (lest risking town chaining junko=>you, in a world where you're scum together).
that said i don't really think it's you anyway. hopefully this explains why i'm more focused on earlier in the game tho-
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yeahhhh this is basically where i'm atIn post 5288, Cephrir wrote:If we think this scumteam decided to run weird_interactions.exe then furtive as scum fits best
Or we can go with this "weird interactions except we ignore cephrir entirely" option I guess
like, it's super easy to vote you and push you and assume you're scum. you've had some off associations and i can't really find anything clearing.
that said the more i drill down the more i just feel like it's kind of a default and i don't feel great about defaulting given how sneaky this scumteam has been >_>-
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alright since i'm doubling down on pocketing ceph - i've seen that you think it's him or me, but can you talk thru why you actually think ceph is the last scum?
are you going for him first because it's easier / i'm a big scary duck, or do you think he's genuinely higher scum equity?-
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oh interesting. 2243 is kind of paradoxical (like, over-justifying a null scum read on someone because they aren't really going anywhere is..very funny) in a way that feels like it actually has fairly limited cognitive load.
if you're scumbuddies those are really good posts-
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i'm like, super washed up. he's definitely tired w this game so it's kind of hard to get a vibe check and i'm a fair bit less confident than i'd like to be >.>
who do you have down as town?-
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ss doesn't vote much, but he vote camped kittytacky pretty heavily - need to check to see how satisfied i am that he really really wanted that lim. unless nor is scum he's also exclusively voted town / nobody this game which is ... something to note, i guess, given i would regard his town game as better than random.
other than a vanity vote from shiidaji/t3 on d1 and the fake guilty shenanigans he's also hardly been voted (and basically all by town). i need to compile a list of who actually reacted to the fake guilty, flow trap did obviously but it was kinda whatever.
In post 4514, Ydrasse wrote:
his reaction to the faked guilty was kinda towny as wellIn post 4449, Ydrasse wrote:
ruhuhgeuhg i'm trying to critique my nulltown read but i don't feel wrong-
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i'm town if that helps. freedom is my strongest tr for sure, i feel like furtive should be more readable than he is
any feelings about luke?
pedit: i do not blame you my brain is knots-
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this gamestate is so weird too, like
you're burned out and unsure where to go
ss seems burned out and largely surprised we hit scum yesterday
furtive seems burned out and has largely decided it's you or me
luke seems engaged and obviously influential in hitting scum yesterday which is.. significant, i think
freedom is just rly towny i think
pedit: are you saying we should clear you for pushing junko through?-
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honestly, i don't think scum!you has a responsible action planotherthan bussing junko.
i also happen to just think your slot is town though so like. i think this is largely moot.-
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interesting - i'll bump my d7 reread up the priority list. i think assuming that dannflor of all people rolls over and that you can pull off another miselim without losing junko seems kind of ill-advisable. i think losing junko without correcting associatives a bit makes it very hard for you to survive endgame.
mostly just a thought exercise tho it just didn't seem like a great reason to lock you in the first time around-
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cool, we're of like minds
you don't seem upset rn cephrir, so i'm going to say it then move on: this setup sure has a lot of hoods.
i think regardless of the solution there's an asymmetrical element which is really cool, etc., etc.
i do think there's a better than random chance of at LEAST the leader chat having scum influence in it, being [me, freedom, furtive].
that's all. this is a stupid argument and in no way useful for finding scum or damning. i'd just feel remiss not saying it ever.-
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if i had two bullets right now i guess i'd shoot furtive then myself. or honestly weirdly probably ss. this game is very surreal.
@luke hbu?-
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i disagree with this but i think that you believe it and i think you're creeping up in my reads loolIn post 5323, Lukewarm wrote:
Then you and I have wildly different views of the game state, because a Melo with me and junko both alive, needing 1 miselim inside of you or SS to seal out the game seems like it would have been a cake walk of a game lolIn post 5318, Cephrir wrote:
You replaced into a slot that needed rehabilitation and you rehabilitated it but I haven't shaken yet the idea that you were in a spot where you had to do thisIn post 5309, Lukewarm wrote:I am really struggling to see how anyone has me anywhere other then their single highest town read right now tbh, so seeing both of you not have me there is pretty shocking ngl-
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reverse-reverse-reverse psychology strikes again-
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money where my mouth is, i guess.
VOTE: furtiveglance
pedit: aw u <3 get in here-
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mmhm mhm that's really validating because i was kind of wondering about windclan interactions given my fear of scum density in there-
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did you feel like junko really cared all that much about your response?In post 5067, JunkoChan wrote:@Lukewarm, thanks I did feel like it was fake interaction, maybe because i'm missing what happened in their hood
(I haven't read my hood btw) that shit is 30 pages long but I'm guessing from expereience that if something iomportant happened there it should be a reference to it in the OT so I'm not reading there for now-
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not a loaded question - reading back i don't really have a solid read on junko's tone. how much she cared can be an indicator of being opportunistic or being relieved etc.-
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yeah. i do think that's within the realm of s/s interactions and is probably slightly more likely to be s/s than what i was considering.
that being saiddddd i don't have many choices other than indulging you, so using freedom as a sanity check is a solid idea. lol.
pedit:thatis interesting. i was also very wary that catboi hand-waved nor pretty early as "returning player, likely to be less excited if scum" without addressing the fact that nor was clearly having an absolute party itt.-
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sigh,.... what if i'm just assuming val is town because i'm a lazy human and i don't want to outguess the one and only alisae.
like, i think freedom is advancing the game in a constructive way, i think.
the world that makes the most sense to me rn is [furtive,junko] and furtive was not banking on needing to solo through 3 miselims-
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gotcha. i'll change my mind at least 180237 times before this game ends, but right now i'm respectably confident that ceph is town fwiw.-
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ayy fingerguns
my goal is to find a solve that doesn't *necessarily* require me to be alive at endgame (aka. hard mode)
if this is one of those games that town wins by vibing into f3 then voting their townread, it's probably not a game that town will win.-
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gosh i know right, luke has this... voice, which is both commanding but also so soothing. i stand no chance.-
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@furtive would you mind expanding on this a bit too please? you've got it stuck in my head lolIn post 5036, furtiveglance wrote:
I find this more convincing than your quote post above. Val likes a big spam contest with scumbuddiesIn post 5034, JunkoChan wrote:
spewed townIn post 327, fireisredsir wrote:290
im not like super confident on it but i think he feels like town val to me
you seem very comfortable with freedom as well, do you think this is explicitly unlikely to have come from scum!val? bc this seems like it should kind of be a red flag?-
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how so?In post 5350, furtiveglance wrote:
The defeatist stuff fits with JunkoChan self-voting moreIn post 5292, the worst wrote:alright since i'm doubling down on pocketing ceph - i've seen that you think it's him or me, but can you talk thru why you actually think ceph is the last scum?
are you going for him first because it's easier / i'm a big scary duck, or do you think he's genuinely higher scum equity?-
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yeah look i get wires crossed REGULARLY, i meant to say you seem quite comfortable with luke town lolIn post 5352, furtiveglance wrote:Lukewarm replaced Val right? They seem town by play now, but they didn't yesterday.
can you expand on what you were talking about re. val a bit?-
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Do you think the scumteam are just like, folding? I think you're probably the only person who thinks that - do you have a read on Ceph otherwise?In post 5353, furtiveglance wrote:
Gamestate, some games have a real sad vibe in the scum PTIn post 5351, the worst wrote:
how so?In post 5350, furtiveglance wrote:
The defeatist stuff fits with JunkoChan self-voting moreIn post 5292, the worst wrote:alright since i'm doubling down on pocketing ceph - i've seen that you think it's him or me, but can you talk thru why you actually think ceph is the last scum?
are you going for him first because it's easier / i'm a big scary duck, or do you think he's genuinely higher scum equity?-
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i'm not sure i know how to solve while assuming mafia have given up. if they have i think it's you lol-
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The flipside is I don't think ceph's fatigue is a symptom of being defeated scum. I think it's similar to SS' fatigue. It's just a fatiguing time around here.-
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i'm concerned this is more of a tonal issue than a game solving issue, and i think cephrir (plus probably you) can be engaged by, like, communicating with whole real sentences and shit.In post 5390, furtiveglance wrote:
Still realistic, theworst could just be efforting as scum. But I'm sick of Cephrir's air of doomIn post 5389, Lukewarm wrote:Actually, I see you mean because he voted Dann first.
But like. Bell's solve was Dann + junko
i find it really hard to align myself with your view of "scum have folded, ergo the second-lowest energy player [let us not forget SS] is scum" when, like
scum have shown nothing but effort and intent to win this game
junko self-voting means there's a slightly >rand chance that scum was already on her wagon. that's all. self-voting because you think you're going to lose is getting eerily close to "playing against wincon" space and i don't think it's responsible to solve on the basis that scum got to f9 and abandoned their wincon.
i'm not even sure that you're scum if i'm being brutally honest?? i just can't align myself with your world view at all and that means you're either defeated scum or lowkey a liability
sorry this post is really harsh. if you are town & can like, just press a couple of levels deeper and un-tunnel on cephrir i think town is drastically more likely to win this game. you can still scumread cephrir, if you want. but i need something other than your disjointed gamestate read if that's real.-
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just to re-state: if we want to lim someone for freezing in f7 when scum are in a precarious spot, we should let SS live to exactly 0% of endgames.-
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more, but [fart noise]In post 5398, Lukewarm wrote:@Everyone
Can everyone please take a moment to tell me your thoughts, given this set up, if it makes more or less sense for there to be scum in the council?-
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starclandammit let the record show i tried to engage with furtive-
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furtive glance is such an aptly selected username i literally can't tell if this is scummy evasiveness or just, like, vagueness as a personality trait combined with *waves at 217 pages of migraine*-
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In post 5395, the worst wrote:
i'm concerned this is more of a tonal issue than a game solving issue, and i think cephrir (plus probably you) can be engaged by, like, communicating with whole real sentences and shit.In post 5390, furtiveglance wrote:
Still realistic, theworst could just be efforting as scum. But I'm sick of Cephrir's air of doomIn post 5389, Lukewarm wrote:Actually, I see you mean because he voted Dann first.
But like. Bell's solve was Dann + junko
i find it really hard to align myself with your view of "scum have folded, ergo the second-lowest energy player [let us not forget SS] is scum" when, like
scum have shown nothing but effort and intent to win this game
junko self-voting means there's a slightly >rand chance that scum was already on her wagon. that's all. self-voting because you think you're going to lose is getting eerily close to "playing against wincon" space and i don't think it's responsible to solve on the basis that scum got to f9 and abandoned their wincon.
i'm not even sure that you're scum if i'm being brutally honest?? i just can't align myself with your world view at all and that means you're either defeated scum or lowkey a liability
sorry this post is really harsh. if you are town & can like, just press a couple of levels deeper and un-tunnel on cephrir i think town is drastically more likely to win this game. you can still scumread cephrir, if you want. but i need something other than your disjointed gamestate read if that's real.
not really a question but i did explain why i'm finding it hard to get anything out of our interactions. i was sort of hoping this might be a call to reevaluate or something.-
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hardclaim libra but my reads this hour are like,
tw
lukewarm
cephrir
freedom
ss
you
i don't see what you're seeing and i don't think cephrir makes sense as scum. i do think you're tunneled on that gamestate read, which is different from being tunneled on a single slot, but is similarly not very helpful for other people trying to solve the game.
i'm not really trying to roast you, just trying to highlight a flaw in our communication. can you explain to me why you're locktown on freedom?-
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but like. when does this ever work.In post 5422, furtiveglance wrote:idk it's like a gimmick to try and earn pity?
do you think he's scum trying to use a pseudo-AtE strategy to win, or scum who's kind of abandoned winning and is just groaning his way through endgame?
those are two super different things-
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i feel like i have a really warped view of this gamestate, might be recency bias or something thanks to replacing in. wild.
VOTE: SS
at this rate i do think furtive is the better lim today buuuuut
i want this to flip red so once again ydrasse can glare from the sidelines, unable to post (legally not connection-wise this time) while i steal all the glory-
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general like, vca thoughts (sorry (i'm not sorry i'll never learn)) - scum are much more likely to self-vote in game-critical situations if they've been correctly bussed.
not sure if that really counts for junko's situation tbqh but i'm just like the tiniest bit wary of freedom today :I-
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for the record i think i'm a fine, albeit very far from ideal, lim today. keep me alive til f3, crossvote and i'll nail this game. i'm an ELO god and i've never misvoted once ever, not even once.
here's the thing... that doesn't actually win sympathy in mafia games. like, ever. ceph has been around a long time and has a high level of social self-awareness and i really don't think he's someone who would expect a (sorry if i'm wrong and this is mean) super phoned-in AtE attempt to get him through to endgame against this plist.In post 5426, furtiveglance wrote:
They sound similar to me, you could be pessimistic and still try to win via being willing to die so people think you're town. I don't get why you think they're townyIn post 5424, the worst wrote:
but like. when does this ever work.In post 5422, furtiveglance wrote:idk it's like a gimmick to try and earn pity?
do you think he's scum trying to use a pseudo-AtE strategy to win, or scum who's kind of abandoned winning and is just groaning his way through endgame?
those are two super different things
i don't think he's likely to anticipate someone with my kind of upside-down world view to replace in and white knight the strategy either
i kind of understand where you're coming from but please look at who's flipped scum again. this scumteam has been absolutely dancing on the town for at least 4-5 phases. do you really think cephrir, a capable scum player who has just utterly non-engaged with the entire damn team, actually makes sense as their last partner?-
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alright ydrasse has probably had enough time to put a curse on me
VOTE: furtiveglance-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
i was misremembering it the same but i can't see anything that affirms it is the case
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
just verified for safety's sake this is not remotely trueIn post 5444, furtiveglance wrote:
I already flipped guys I'm town D_DIn post 5443, Lukewarm wrote:Would someone mind unvoting to get us off e-1, I am working on a wall post >.<-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
Wait are you drafting a huge case against me? Why did I unvote to help you what is wrong with me-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
I feel quite tepid about them
jokes aside me too-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36861
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond