House of the Dragon - Game Over!


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Post Post #3238 (isolation #200) » Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:52 pm

Post by Andresvmb »

I’m very tempted to use that Trial by Combat mechanic - it looks fun. I just don’t think it’s a good idea for
me
to do it potentially, but if someone I SR challenges me, I may accept it haha
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Post Post #3250 (isolation #201) » Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:07 pm

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3249, VP Baltar wrote:Roden should challenge Johnny
Would you mad if I issue a challenge and die? Haha I really want to do it.
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Post Post #3253 (isolation #202) » Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:17 pm

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3251, GuiltyLion wrote:Andres you can't die you're our rock as obvtown captain of the kingsguard

you dying in the scum!Shea world would be a throw
Hahaha okay fine I won’t do it. But I was very close to issuing a challenge to Enchant.
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Post Post #3444 (isolation #203) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:21 am

Post by Andresvmb »

I’m VLA until tomorrow morning, but I’ll try to read throughout the day so I can stay up to date.
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Post Post #3447 (isolation #204) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:48 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3336, Datisi wrote:
In post 3161, Andresvmb wrote:@VP, @Datisi, @GuiltyLion, @Titus, I’m fine with a Johnny execution, and I will most definitely vote there if needed. I’m finding the argument that Rhaenyra wouldn’t try so strongly to put Town they seem to be solid as King to the point where they rage quit the game somewhat persuasive.
i don't think it's a ridiculous argument, but i do think it's inherently wifom and that the bad johnny stuff does not outweigh that. especially the council thread posting.

and they didn't ragequit the game, they got force replaced.

---
In post 3314, VP Baltar wrote:Roden, if GL is scum, why are you not voting him? Also, who else is scum? Why are you convinced Johnny is town?
oh hey, exactly what i was thinking about. very cool.

i skimmed the roden/gl argument. i didn't see anything from roden that made me want to change my vote. (and if he weren't arguing with gl, i'd even say i suspect this to be a walling svs fight meant to bore everyone to death.)

---

i tried to read their stuff + dann's wall in depth, but uh. big tired head empty. i'm around for like half an hour if someone wants to realtime about something, tho.
Datisi I agree, and I do think Johnny is going to have to pay with blood here. I just didn’t want to wholesale dismiss the argument because it didn’t come across as disingenuous. I am equating being force replaced with rage quitting because I do think they absolutely understood the impact of putting the vote that they did down. As in, I think they knew if they voted so quickly they would be forced to leave the game, and yet they did anyway in frustration. You’re right and I agree that it carries a lot of WIFOM, and Scum that’s disillusioned with how the game is going could have used that as an excuse to leave the game, but I would be very frustrated if I’m in a Team with someone and they’re playing like Rhaenyra and on top of that, they get force replaced because of something they did intentionally. But I don’t know them as a player and I don’t know what their boundaries are.
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Post Post #3448 (isolation #205) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:50 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3337, Roden wrote:
In post 3314, VP Baltar wrote:Roden, if GL is scum, why are you not voting him? Also, who else is scum? Why are you convinced Johnny is town?
What does voting GL right now do? There's no pressure from it, no one seems go he agreeing with here or in the PT but no one's really trying to stop me either. I'm more interested in discerning GL's alignment than trying to flip him outright, the same reason I wasn't voting him yesterday.

I posted thoughts on my reads in the PT but my other scum reads are LLD and Owen. Also not really opposed to an Andres elim. Dann's read on me is pretty bad considering the past few games and the PYP that just ended, but it would be weird if he were S/S with LLD. And this isn't necessarily a scum read, but my town read on Shea has lessened throughout today, I expected them to come at today at a different angle and haven't really seen that.

Johnny is town to me because Rhae felt super townie in the non-supporter PT. Dwlee forging associatives with unwnd on their way out the door also just doesn't make sense if they're partners. OTOH, Johnny doing pretty much nothing is a valid reason to want to vote him today, so I get why he's under suspicion. I just don't see much of a case on him right now.
I’m not going to let you get away with just throwing out there that you wouldn’t be opposed to my execution. If you have points to make about my alignment, make them here.
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Post Post #3449 (isolation #206) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:53 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3346, Andante wrote:So I was looking at stuff, saw this:
In post 346, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Dwlee99 [1]: VP Baltar
then went looking for the vote:
In post 237, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 227, Datisi wrote:lukewarm and baltar are overlooking the key difference between guardians and this game - an ic is always going to be a townie, the question is just whether it's gonna be me or another townie. here, king isn't guaranteed to be town. i know i'm town.

---

In post 200, VP Baltar wrote:
VOTE: dwlee

why dwlee? i was starting to feel they're kinda scummy
On the IC part, idk, feels like you're splitting hairs. King is going to be a lot of responsibility I assume, and the feeling seems like it would be similar since, as you confirm, you know you're town.

Are you advocating for yourself to be king now seriously?

On dwlee, voted there because I felt like it. I don't have a scummy vibe there at this point, and I think it's pretty unlikely I follow Mastina's proposal.
And I'm not too sure what I think here, cause I think Datisi and VP just feel odd here, I could see both talking about a scum partner!Dwlee, like, idk that interaction just reads weird to me knowing now that Dwlee was scum.

But I know I wanted to call Datisi twn for the Dwlee flip, however reading this makes me want to go back and see what actually cause Dwlee to call Datisi maf, cause suddenly I'm thinking it's probably not a good reason to call Datisi town.. idk, that's probably my next line of thought to look at, but it's not happening tonight
Andante sorry to do this, but you’re not getting VPB or Datisi executed today, and I will definitely fight you to the death if you start making these cases. You’re just plainly looking in the wrong place. VPB tried to get DW executed quickly to avoid a potential shot from the King - are you arguing that was theater? Why does VPB (and Datisi for that matter) insist on pushing DW the next day when the NK was done to maximize the damage to GL’s standing in the game? This should be obvious to you.
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Post Post #3450 (isolation #207) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:56 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3363, ProfessorDrapion wrote:
In post 3281, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 3280, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:My spicy scumread is Andante because of the Dwlee town case they made in the disenter QT
Is that spicy?
Sorry but I really don’t like this post.

Did VP Balter ever indicate a town read on Andante?
Cause if they did this is a pretty damn clear wolf slip.
@Andres
VP’s reads you got?
What are you asking me?
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Post Post #3452 (isolation #208) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:58 am

Post by Andresvmb »

VOTE: Johnny
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Post Post #3453 (isolation #209) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:11 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3369, ProfessorDrapion wrote:I don’t think the wolves “hopped on” I think there was a wolf that started it.
Rather it be the original day 1 wagon or the reformed wagon on day 2.
Out of all of the bad takes in the game (and there are several), this one is right up there. The Scum started a wagon on their Partner because what? What makes you believe this was the case? The first vote for DW btw is this one: . DW had been pushed to the brink, and Rhaenyra (after voting for DW as the 4th voter) moves away from them to start a vanity wagon on VPB. The part that’s curious though is that I don’t know that if you absolutely think DW is going down there, that you move away, making you look so transparently bad (I was expressing skepticism and could have hammered, and there were several well explained reads going against DW there).
Andante’s is also Scummy looking there.
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Post Post #3454 (isolation #210) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:11 am

Post by Andresvmb »

^
@Pooky can you fix my references?
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Post Post #3455 (isolation #211) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:19 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3400, Enchant wrote:
Prince of Dragonstone: unwnd
Hand of the King: Datisi
Lord Commander of the Kingsguard: Andresvmb
Master of Coin: Firebringer
Master of Laws: Andante
Master of Whisperers/Grand Maester: Mathblade

There's only 4 council members alive. Every player can't hold more than two roles. So if you can:
Don't give Master of Whisperers to anyone
. At this point you forced to grant Grand Maester (too important). If you also grant Master of Whisperers, then there will be two players with two PRs. And they could't replace if someone else die.

Atleast i don't think you can revoke someone power without killing them. Tsk...
How does this make any sense? Don’t give PRs to players (regardless of read) because they might get shot? I can’t say I think there’s a lot of logic to this. I think the approach that favors Town is to let TSQ hand the roles to players we TR, and we do our best to take advantage of the PRs. Unless you’re arguing that there are only Scum in the Council so handing roles out is detrimental, I can’t say I’m tracking the logic here.
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Post Post #3458 (isolation #212) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:31 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3425, ProfessorDrapion wrote:Another reason why those 3 voting Johnny contains at minimum 1 wolf cause the Kingsguard is definitely not all town and can contain more than 1 wolf.

@Andres
I don’t care how much you have fantasies thinking you’re the best and can pick all town, you didn’t. End of story.
I don’t know if you have access to any of the posts I put out there were I was convinced it was difficult to pick an all Town Kingsguard, or why certain actions are difficult to get through the Kingsguard since I didn’t have any confidence that the Kingsguard was all Town. But you can ask me. This is beyond annoying.
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Post Post #3459 (isolation #213) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:33 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3457, Enchant wrote:
In post 3455, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 3400, Enchant wrote:
Prince of Dragonstone: unwnd
Hand of the King: Datisi
Lord Commander of the Kingsguard: Andresvmb
Master of Coin: Firebringer
Master of Laws: Andante
Master of Whisperers/Grand Maester: Mathblade

There's only 4 council members alive. Every player can't hold more than two roles. So if you can:
Don't give Master of Whisperers to anyone
. At this point you forced to grant Grand Maester (too important). If you also grant Master of Whisperers, then there will be two players with two PRs. And they could't replace if someone else die.

Atleast i don't think you can revoke someone power without killing them. Tsk...
How does this make any sense? Don’t give PRs to players (regardless of read) because they might get shot? I can’t say I think there’s a lot of logic to this. I think the approach that favors Town is to let TSQ hand the roles to players we TR, and we do our best to take advantage of the PRs. Unless you’re arguing that there are only Scum in the Council so handing roles out is detrimental, I can’t say I’m tracking the logic here.
I refuse to talk with someone who can't read.
There aren’t enough people dead on the Council where you are forced not to allocate PRs. So again, unless you’re completely ignoring how the mechanics of the game work, why would you choose not to allocate a role now because it may not be possible to allocate them in the future? I could be wrong but don’t you have the same problem whether you allocate the PR or not if Town in the Council gets shot?
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Post Post #3466 (isolation #214) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:02 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Why don’t we work through an example, because I’m not understanding your point @Enchant.

The current Council is this:
King: TSQ (as they make selections, I presume they cannot be picked for a PR, but I don’t remember reading that anywhere, though I would also think that logically that makes sense)
Prince: Johnny
Hand: Datisi
LORD COMMANDER: Andrés
Master of Coin: Firebringer
Master of Laws: Andante
Master of Whisperers / Grand Maester: [Empty]

Scenario 1: You allocate Grand Maester to say me (since you do not want to allocate Cop + Doctor to the same person), you do not allocate Master of Whisperers. I get shot holding two PRs including Doctor (since I cannot protect myself), but force the Scum to not shoot Datisi as the Hand (since we care that they get a result again tomorrow). Okay, then Lord of the Kingsguard is up for grabs, and so is Master of Whisperers + Grand Maester. You’re left with 4 other players on the Council (outside the King), and 3 roles to distribute which can all be handed out since no one is holding two PRs then.

Scenario 2: You allocate Grand Maester (to me again), but you allocate Master of Whisperers to Datisi as the Hand. Okay, I get shot. So Lord Commander + Grand Maester up for grabs, and one player (Datisi) holds two PRs. You now have 2 roles to distribute, and everyone in the Council but Datisi can get an additional PR (3 players). How is this not strictly better than the situation above?

Note, this is NOT me advocating to get Grand Maester. If anything, I don’t want it because it’ll get me NK’ed, but I’ll accept it if strictly necessary. But I don’t see how you don’t end up in a better place if you distribute the two PRs that remain instead of just one.
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Post Post #3467 (isolation #215) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:04 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Does anybody think I’m missing anything?
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Post Post #3471 (isolation #216) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:29 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3470, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 3466, Andresvmb wrote:Why don’t we work through an example, because I’m not understanding your point @Enchant.

The current Council is this:
King: TSQ (as they make selections, I presume they cannot be picked for a PR, but I don’t remember reading that anywhere, though I would also think that logically that makes sense)
Prince: Johnny
Hand: Datisi
LORD COMMANDER: Andrés
Master of Coin: Firebringer
Master of Laws: Andante
Master of Whisperers / Grand Maester: [Empty]

Scenario 1: You allocate Grand Maester to say me (since you do not want to allocate Cop + Doctor to the same person), you do not allocate Master of Whisperers. I get shot holding two PRs including Doctor (since I cannot protect myself), but force the Scum to not shoot Datisi as the Hand (since we care that they get a result again tomorrow). Okay, then Lord of the Kingsguard is up for grabs, and so is Master of Whisperers + Grand Maester. You’re left with 4 other players on the Council (outside the King), and 3 roles to distribute which can all be handed out since no one is holding two PRs then.

Scenario 2: You allocate Grand Maester (to me again), but you allocate Master of Whisperers to Datisi as the Hand. Okay, I get shot. So Lord Commander + Grand Maester up for grabs, and one player (Datisi) holds two PRs. You now have 2 roles to distribute, and everyone in the Council but Datisi can get an additional PR (3 players). How is this not strictly better than the situation above?

Note, this is NOT me advocating to get Grand Maester. If anything, I don’t want it because it’ll get me NK’ed, but I’ll accept it if strictly necessary. But I don’t see how you don’t end up in a better place if you distribute the two PRs that remain instead of just one.
Why don't we make Johnny the Grand Maester, tell them who to give potions to. If they're Town they become a likely nightkill target which solves their slot, and if they're Mafia they have to help us with the potions or we vote them.
@furtive I don’t agree. I thought about the strategic point of giving the role of Doctor to the Scummiest person on the Council, but if you scrutinize the logic, it fails I think.
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Post Post #3475 (isolation #217) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:43 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Well we want the Cop to investigate. If we hand over the role of Doctor to a player that’s Scummy (which, if they’re broadly viewed as Scum, they’re probably decently likely to be Scum, or at least I would give it a > random chance, though I don’t know that this is a > 50% chance), and they’re
not
Scum, they will protect the Cop and we get an investigation. Okay, that’s great. But I’m not convinced the Scum shoot there necessarily, solving the issue of having to sort them. They shot Lukewarm N1 and Luke was Town, and Junko was Grand Maester and was also Town, so you have some evidence that depending on the game circumstances, it will not be as straightforward as letting the Scum do the job for us.

If, instead, the Grand Maester is Scum, they have the optionality of either (i) sabotaging the Cop if they think the investigation they will perform will be catastrophic (though this outs them), or (ii) letting the Cop make the investigation while arguing that them not being NK’ed isn’t necessarily definitive since like I said, you already have evidence that the Scum won’t necessarily shoot the Doctor. At the end of the day, the Scum know that there’s going to be investigations most nights until such time as the Council has shrunk to the point it needs to be reconstituted - they can only slow the process of investigation it seems to me (and the management of Coin also determines this). But if the execution of the slot holding the Doctor PR feels inevitable, they will certainly sabotage the Cop, who btw is a broadly TR’ed player in Datisi. I don’t think it’s net beneficial for us to do this.
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Post Post #3476 (isolation #218) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:46 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Basically you’re risking giving Scum the optionality to stop the Cop (by failing to protect them or poisoning them), when it doesn’t give you the benefit necessarily that the slot will be sorted by the Scum. In fact the lack of a shot on the Doctor is entirely WIFOM. I’m not seeing it.
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Post Post #3477 (isolation #219) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:50 am

Post by Andresvmb »

On the other hand, if you give Grand Maester to a Towny slot, and they’re Town (which, decently good odds and probably > 50%), if the investigation the Cop will make is catastrophic to the Scum, they can’t do anything to stop it. That’s a lot of upside you’re giving up for not necessarily sorting the Scummy slot.
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Post Post #3478 (isolation #220) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:56 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Like the logic for the PRs in the Council I strongly feel should be: give coin to Cop, protect Cop, get results (and profit). By taking any actions that may derail this, I feel we’re putting ourselves at a disadvantage. The Scum can always outsmart the Town if we give them optionality because they have more information than we do, but they can’t go around investigations.
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Post Post #3482 (isolation #221) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:16 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3479, Enchant wrote:
In post 3466, Andresvmb wrote:
Scenario 2: You allocate Grand Maester (to me again), but you allocate Master of Whisperers to Datisi as the Hand. Okay, I get shot. So Lord Commander + Grand Maester up for grabs, and one player (Datisi) holds two PRs. You now have 2 roles to distribute, and everyone in the Council but Datisi can get an additional PR (3 players). How is this not strictly better than the situation above?
Okay example:
You get Grand Maester.
Firebringer get Master of Whisperers.

And for Example Datisi dies.

Now Cop can go only in hands of Johhnny or Andante.


Giving another investigative to already investigative is silly. It depends really if
you can multitask
, but regardless it's silly.
It's also stupid to give Datisi power of Doctor as he can't nurse self.
If I do my job right, Datisi never dies. Otherwise I’m likely Scum and you should execute me.

I honestly do not know and we would need to check if the Town can multi-task, but I’m still not seeing your point. Why is giving an investigative to a player that has an investigative silly? If anything, if the Master of Coin for whatever reason is unable to provide sufficient Coin to activate the Cop, but can activate the Tracker (without damaging the long-term prospects of using the Cop on future Nights too much), then why wouldn’t you want exactly that? Particularly since the Doctor as we know is already very likely to be sitting on that player? And this is even if the Town cannot multi-task.

Yes you never give the Doctor to the Cop but that’s obvious.
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Post Post #3483 (isolation #222) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:18 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3480, Enchant wrote:If we really need Tracker for some reason some day, always can grant it again.

But why holding this position now? It's unlikely we will give it money instead of Cop.
And you don’t know this, only the Master of Coin truly knows the money and debts of the Crown. You’re speculating, and even if your assumption was true, it still strikes me as well since we’re unlikely to make use of the role, we shouldn’t have it. When, that makes no sense to me. Why not have it, in case we get to a point where we can make use of it + the Cop? That’s very unclear to me.
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Post Post #3548 (isolation #223) » Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:33 am

Post by Andresvmb »

To be fair, Andante wasn’t really getting their way and they didn’t have tremendous influence, so it could be that just as it could be the back and forth.
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Post Post #3652 (isolation #224) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:09 am

Post by Andresvmb »

@fireisredsir let’s have a conversation about your reads because I’ve liked your entrance but we don’t agree at the bottom.
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Post Post #3653 (isolation #225) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:10 am

Post by Andresvmb »

It might help me with Kingsguard selections if I can avoid some slots I may be misreading. I have furtive on the outside of my Town core. Not quite Scum but in my POE. But I don’t see them as a priority. Do you TR Johnny here?
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Post Post #3654 (isolation #226) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:13 am

Post by Andresvmb »

And I’ve selected UNOwen twice I think? For the Kingsguard? So we’re disagreeing there a bit. I had him as my weakest TR but I may have to reevaluate. I felt Titus was likely Town upon re-read (I felt they had a lot of “accurate” takes, except for their shade of my own slot, which I don’t know how to interpret since they literally have SR’ed me the last 5 times we’ve played as both alignments, and I know one time before at least).
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Post Post #3655 (isolation #227) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:14 am

Post by Andresvmb »

And I have Enchant as one of my top SR and you have them as solid Town. That one I’m just not seeing, but obviously there’s a lot of commentary about how they’re in their Town meta. Which I’m sure is possible, but I’m not feeling.
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Post Post #3656 (isolation #228) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:18 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In any event, I liked your entrance since you have a few reads that are not consensus that I think could shake up the game.
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Post Post #3658 (isolation #229) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:22 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3633, fireisredsir wrote:hm hard disagree? the confidence is surprising

i thought a lot of both his d1 and d2 felt more performative than natural, and the places where he chose to focus his attention seemed motivated to me, by something other than just normal townplay. there's specifics but i kinda want to reread (and catch up on council pt, haven't read that yet) to see if i still feel the same before going into it too much

if you and GL do really hard townread him ill take that into account, its possible i tunneled since i didn't have any direct investment in the game or anyone to challenge my reads (altho tbh i find my reads are usually better from that position)
Like yes at times I felt Datisi was performing a bit. Explaining in detail their read of TSQ as Town
after
TSQ had been named King felt pockety. But I’m not sure that Datisi has been focused on places that carry an agenda. That I would like to see some more analysis for. In the back of my mind there’s a possibility that Datisi and DW were doing some serious distancing with DW insisting so consistently that they were Scum (and Datisi is on the Council, so you would certainly trade DW for Datisi’s standing in the game here). But Datisi has interacted with a lot of the game, so I think I need more before I change my read there.
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Post Post #3659 (isolation #230) » Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:39 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3657, Enchant wrote:On what your SR even based on
What have you done that you would describe as Town positive? Put it in your own words. Because from where I’m sitting, you (i) started shading me aggressively when I entered the game, and engaged me in bad faith (see , , and the latter being annoying in particular since the game is mountainous to start, so the attack makes no sense); (ii) made a dubious argument about questioning why people weren’t self-voting for King in ; (iii) shaded VPB aggressively (who I TR) for making recommendations and trying to get consensus (see for example, or , or ); (iv) softly defended against a DW execution (see ), though did waffle later in , , and voted there towards the end (, in what could be a potential bus vote); (v) and despite shading VPB and Datisi aggressively for most of the start of the game, have almost completely ignored those reads after ~3400, voting the Johnny slot in instead (which makes me think your shade is fabricated or you don’t really believe in it), and Andante in . So I can’t say I even understand what you’re trying to accomplish.
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Post Post #3767 (isolation #231) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 2:50 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3754, Enchant wrote:If we execute Johnny, will Grand Maester power even work or we have no protection for next night?
They do work. This was confirmed with the Mod. We wouldn’t be implementing this plan otherwise.
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Post Post #3775 (isolation #232) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:07 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 3686, ProfessorDrapion wrote:Also I ask people.

I mentioned how Dwlee was a
Planned Buss

Does anyone disagree?
If you do, say you do, explain yourself and then I’ll explain how Dwlee knew he was gonna be executed day 2 without a doubt.
I mean C’mon the dude would have been voted out day 1 if it wasn’t for the king.
What we can do here is compare the early wagon for DW with the one that ended in his execution to see if you have a point. I think this has been done already in part but perhaps not in light of this question, but I’ll do it (i) for my own benefit but (ii) also because I have been disagreeing with you in my head, but I don’t think I’ve tried to arrive at a more definitive answer.

This is the early quick wagon on DW after the King selection:

With twenty one players alive - it requires eleven votes to make a decision. Failure to reach a majority results in no execution

Dwlee99 [9]:
VP Baltar, Datisi, GuiltyLion, Rhaenyra, Dannflor, PenguinPower, Junkochan, Firebringer, Unowen
Lady Lambdadelta [1]:
Thestatusquo
Datisi [1]:
Dwlee99


not voting [10]:
Titus, Andresvmb, Lukewarm, Andante, Charloux, mastina, Lady Lambdadelta, ProfessorDrapion, Bellaphant, Enchant

This is the height of the Charloux CW:

With twenty one players alive - it requires eleven votes to make a decision. Failure to reach a majority results in no execution


Dwlee99 [6]:
VP Baltar, Datisi, Dannflor, PenguinPower, Firebringer, Titus
Charloux [6]:
Furtiveglance, ProfessorDrapion, Unowen, Junkochan, unwnd, GuiltyLion
GuiltyLion [3]:
Lukewarm, Thestatusquo, Enchant
Enchant [1]:
Andresvmb
VP Baltar [1]:
mastina
Datisi [1]:
Dwlee99
Titus [1]:
Andante

not voting [2]:
Charloux, Lady Lambdadelta,

And this is the wagon on DW D1 prior to the execution of MariaR:

With twenty one players alive - it requires eleven votes to make a decision. Failure to reach a majority results in no execution

Dwlee99 [9]:
Datisi, Dannflor, PenguinPower, Firebringer, Titus, MariaR, Lukewarm, GuiltyLion, VP Baltar
Furtiveglance [3]:
Junkochan, thestatusquo, unwnd
GuiltyLion [2]:
Enchant, mastina
unwnd [2]:
furtiveglance, Andante
Enchant [1]:
Andresvmb
Datisi [1]:
Dwlee99
VP Baltar [1]:
ProfessorDrapion
MariaR [1]:
Unowen

not voting [1]:
Lady Lambdadelta,

This is where DW and GL are both being considered D2:

With nineteen players alive - it will require ten votes to eliminate a player.

GuiltyLion [5]:
Junkochan, Thestatusquo, Firebringer, mastina, ProfessorDrapion
Dwlee99 [5]:
GuiltyLion, Titus, Datisi, Andresvmb, VP Baltar
Firebringer [2]:
Enchant, furtiveglance,

not voting [7]:
JohnnyFarrar, PenguinPower, Andante, Dannflor, Unowen, Lady Lambdadelta, Dwlee99

And to cut it short a bit, this is where the wagon ended at the end of D2, executing DW:

With nineteen players alive - it will require ten votes to eliminate a player.

Dwlee99 [10]:
GuiltyLion, Titus, Andresvmb, VP Baltar, furtiveglance, Firebringer, Unowen, Datisi, ProfessorDrapion, Enchant
GuiltyLion [2]:
Thestatusquo, mastina,
Datisi [1]:
Dwlee99
Titus [1]:
Roden
Unowen [1]:
Andante

not voting [4]:
JohnnyFarrar, Dannflor, Lady Lambdadelta, Mathblade,

You want to know what I see?

VPB, Datisi, GuiltyLion, and Firebringer have been consistently voting DW throughout D1 and D2. The Roden slot (PenguinPower) did D1 but not D2. Titus was on DW when the Charloux CW sprung up, and never wavered thereafter. Dannflor was an early supporter, but jumped off the wagon and doesn’t appear to have voted much of anyone later (which would be seriously odd behavior if you’re trying to bus your Partner as part of a plan, or failing that, defend them late with a vote on a CW), UNOwen was an early and late voter on DW (between D1 and D2), but jumped off in between and supported the MariaR counterwagon (maybe suspicious?), and the Rhaenyra slot (now Johnny) was an early voter on DW but never returned, with unwnd ending up on the Charloux CW in between, and the smaller wagon on furtive. That early wagon on DW looks mostly pure to me, and the late wagon? Not as much, with Enchant and you Drapion replacing MariaR (Confirmed Town) and Lukewarm (Town), and then the Roden slot (PenguinPower) and the Johnny slot (Rhaenyra) also being replaced by my vote and that of Titus (who wasn’t on the very first wagon but like shown here, jumped on a bit later in D1). So, when did the Scum plan to bus DW? Was it before the spontaneous wagon on them appeared after the King selection? Do you have any evidence for this? Because if not, then I think your idea is nonsense.
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Post Post #3776 (isolation #233) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:09 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Interestingly, the above makes me soften my SR of Roden btw. I’m probably somewhat wrong there and should reconsider. I don’t think the above does much to change my view on the Johnny slot, and it also gives me increasing confidence that Drapion is probably Scum here.
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Post Post #3778 (isolation #234) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:13 am

Post by Andresvmb »

If Drapion and Johnny both flip Town, we’ll have to flip Andante this game btw.
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Post Post #3779 (isolation #235) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:13 am

Post by Andresvmb »

^both flip Scum*
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Post Post #3780 (isolation #236) » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:14 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Who is now fireisredsir.
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Post Post #5311 (isolation #237) » Fri Dec 23, 2022 5:39 am

Post by Andresvmb »

In post 5303, Firebringer wrote:read lot of dead chat
@andres yes i know im very dumb for forgetting to submit action. It was even worse finding out after i worked over night and slept in to 10 am finding out i missed the grace period by literally like 40 min? I was like god damn pooky just let me submit it
You’re good. After I died, the Town played better not worse. I almost feel like I was a hindrance to unlocking the game. I did a few things okay, and I’m really glad I was right about VPB and GuiltyLion who would have been my Towncore. But I succumbed to Datisi Town (the mechanical argument LLD made btw absolutely swayed me - I would have voted there too when it happened and LLD deserves a lot of props for pushing the game forward despite their lack of motivation), and then my solve went to crap with the checks. I suspected Titus very strongly early on (called them outright Scum aggressively), but didn’t follow through because Datisi played really well. Drapion did Scum side bad, but others were still able to TR them (and I did early on, but I failed to stay consistent), and Enchant and I just couldn’t get on the same page. So I don’t think my reads were solid at all, and I’m really curious as to why the Scum decided to NK me here.
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Post Post #5312 (isolation #238) » Fri Dec 23, 2022 5:41 am

Post by Andresvmb »

But hey I tried and I put a lot of thought and time and I’m really glad the Town won. I think we deserved it. There’s times I feel we get lucky and I don’t feel that way about this game at all. We beat a motivated solid Scum Team and so many Town players actually cared about the outcome and played solid.
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Post Post #5314 (isolation #239) » Fri Dec 23, 2022 5:57 am

Post by Andresvmb »

Thanks @TSQ. Consistently selecting players with the hopes that we would protect you is definitely the better part of my game here. But my reads just weren’t that great haha and that’s okay.

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