Hollow Knight Mafia [game over]

[Klick]

I think Traitor Gun Vendor is a very skill-expressive role that, notably, does not directly interfere with any potential scum actions

[Klick]

You really want to push a narrative of me 'pocketing furtive'

First of all, if that's what I'm doing, it's blatantly going pretty horribly

Second, why the

hell

is my plan as scum to 'pocket furtive' when that's literally like the least likely thing to happen in this gamestate and has been for ages

Why is that the play for Klick!scum? You don't have a sensible answer to that because there isn't one.

[Klick]

you don't win by having one person not vote you, you just don't lose. klick needs to advance his wincon further than having you on his side. what do you think he'd do instead as scum? just coast on that townread?

k i l l f u r t i v e

If it weren't possible last night then just after an easy no lim negotiation today

If I'm scum why the hell do I care about beating my head against a wall convincing furtive of anything

You're arguing that it would be necessary for me to convince furtive I'm town

If I'm scum I don't have to convince furtive of shit

[Klick]

I plan on discussing you!scum vs furtive!scum with fire and deciding the best course of action from there

[Klick]

I'm not going to have a lot of time over the next couple of days

When I am able to be around I want to discuss the details of whether Gimli is town or scum and why. I think Gimli is the slot where we are going to get a more conclusive answer to his alignment through deeper analysis, and that's what I'd rather discuss than furtive tbh.

[Klick]

Frankly just using this game day as a lens, I think I'd very much expect this continued tunneling from furtive!town, whereas Gimli's insistent scumread on me today is actually hard for me to rationalise without me assuming that Gimli is scum. The push today just makes a lot of sense if Gimli is scum and doesn't make a lot of sense if Gimli is town.

[Klick]

V/LA 2 days

Really longer than 2 days that I'll be on vacation, but I should be able to play enough after 2 days

Noted. ~D

[Klick]

Hi I'm here I exist. We're on vacation back in America to see my family.

I should have some time to dive in tonight. Main goal is decisively sorting between Gimli and furtive, and expressing my reasoning.

[Klick]

I came on prepared to argue for furtive!town and Gimli!scum but uh I think I'm starting to see furtive!Traitor as a reasonable solve.

The main block for that in my head at the moment is how the last two game days have played out. I think furtive has a rather not-scummy last couple of days, and I think Gimli has a rather scummy D9.

Right now I think furtive's early play looks particularly not like his town game. He isn't pushing hard, he isn't displaying confidence, he doesn't have the misguided WIM that exists in almost all of his town games. It doesn't quite look like his scum game either, but that can be explained by being a Traitor. He has *reads* but I'm not convinced he cares about them.

I really struggle to see why furtive's motivation is so low in the last couple of days though if he's scum. He looks a LOT like what I'd expect from demotivated town.

Gimli I have a lot of trouble coming to anything that I feel is conclusive one way or the other. A lot of my confidence in Gimli!scum stemmed from feeling confident that furtive made no sense as scum. I suppose there's a simple argument that just like I don't have to go to the lengths I've gone if I'm scum here to pull off a win, Gimli similarly doesn't have to try nearly as hard as he has if he wants a win here - he could have literally just pushed for no-lim->no-lim, killed fire, and won. He's done way more than that. I think ultimately I believe Gimli is *capable* of playing at the level he has played here if he's scum. But I don't know if he decides it's necessary or the path he chooses to take. He sees as clearly as I do that furtive is projecting zero intention of changing his mind.

Today's push on me feels really freaking weird from Gimli!town though. Like paranoia is possible, but there are a lot of things that Gimli is deliberately choosing not to consider to come to the conclusion that I'm scum in this position. I felt like the cleanest explanation for this was that Gimli was scum pushing it to solidify things with furtive, but I can see paranoia as an explanation.

I'm feeling even less confident than when I started rereading and now I've got to go again. Maybe I'll have more time later tonight.

[Klick]

If there's anything you want from me fire I'm happy to engage with questions or otherwise discuss ideas. I think we're at a point where you have more conviction in your beliefs on this game than I do. I think Gimli!scum is still an idea worth exploring, but at this point I don't know that I have the energy to play out that world.

If you have nothing else you really want to discuss then I'll probably sheep you and call it a day

[Klick]

Coinflips don't exist people do things for reasons

I largely ignored the furtive!Traitor reasoning because I thought it was wrong and furtive was acting like town
I started my readthrough by going through furtive's early play mostly with the intent of showing that it matched his town meta like I thought it did... only to find that that wasn't really true when I actually looked through furtive town games for comparison

The 'Klick was trying to pocket furtive' thing is still really poor as a theory
I think you have a really warped vision of how I'd choose to play as scum

When you're not confident it's better to follow someone who is town and is confident. This is something I believe and can verify that I believe.

[Klick]

When solving a game it's important to have a valid perception of how confident you actually are in your solve
Often the answer for me is 'rather confident'

Right now the answer is 'not nearly as confident as I'd like to be'
In which case it is correct to trust others

[Klick]

I am getting the impression that fireisredsir reads you as town with higher confidence than I'm currently feeling about either you or furtive
I think 'coinflip' is a silly description of this regardless because it's meant to imply randomness when there's no randomness involved

If you believe all of those things about furtive here I think it's hypocritical of you to use them as an argument against me and give them all up because I'm 'ignoring' those things
'Ignore' needs to have a consistent definition when you use it in this context; I didn't really acknowledge those things about furtive to my memory but it's not like I just haven't thought about them at all, just like you have thought about them but chosen to believe they don't make furtive scum; I just thought there was stronger evidence that furtive was town, and diving deeper into furtive's meta and considering a furtive!Traitor world tonight made me think otherwise

[Klick]

what I feel is that you're now giving a thought to furtive traitor ideas because he is voting you

but anyway I'm off to bed

Yes, as opposed to all the other times I decided not to go after furtive because he was projecting any willingness to consider I wasn't scum

[Klick]

I didn't follow what fire was trying to say in 6195 because I have trouble generally understanding people's arguments when those arguments consist of quotes, emojis, and no further context
This is part of why I often ignore the general thread narrative in games, because I need arguments to be explained to me clearly and directly and it's very rare on this site for people to explain something clearly and directly enough for me to follow and also present an argument worth engaging with

I hadn't considered the thing that fire was apparently implying as a potential argument because I thought it had been previously stated in the OP that roles were unrelated to flavor and that matched with the scum flip and therefore 'Traitor Lord being a Traitor' isn't something that I thought made sense as a conclusion, especially without any actual argument being made to express that

Literally every boss in Hollow Knight 'blocks paths' it's far from exclusive to Traitor Lord

[Klick]

what do you think of furtive squeezing in a reason to post something that contained the word traitor, though?

I think since we're in this situation it's pretty sus! It was sus earlier as well and I said as much like D3 ish?
It's not conclusive though and I don't like weighing evidence that isn't conclusive
Firebringer did the same kind of nonsense and was town (Although he is known for a degree of that nonsense and furtive isn't)

I haven't played the game so I didn't know all bosses blocked paths

Okay not ALL as in 100%. But it's not unique to Traitor Lord at all, a key part of the game is that bosses block paths to continue further in the game

[Klick]

the daystart message and follow up posting is an example of how something that only makes sense from a scum standpoint can be reasoned out to the point where at least one player thinks klick is even more likely to be a townie just for doing it.

you'd only overthink your daystart message this bad if you're scum

The problem is that you have a conclusion - that I would only approach the daystart the way that I did if I were scum - that you cannot properly support

What I'm doing is telling you specifically with detail what my town approach was to daystart as a counterpoint to this

My approach is consistent and non-contradictory and unnecessarily messy from a scum perspective
It always would be, because I'm town in this game

'X could ONLY happen if Y is scum' is the traditional method of scumhunting but it's fundamentally flawed in that it falsely conceptualises an 'objective' way that all town would play

Town have a massive range of potential actions, it's scum who are far more limited in how they behave

[Klick]

The Venn diagram of town behaviour and scum behaviour is a very big circle with a smaller circle inside it

[Klick]

Town have a massive range of potential actions, it's scum who are far more limited in how they behave

no its the opposite

scum controls NAs

scum knows what narratives to push and when and how if they're worth their salt

These things... limit scum behaviour

[Klick]

you'd make a daystart message as scum just to let small hints that you thought we were going to 3p but we were actually not cause you know what happens in the night and you use your message to play around it

there that's how unlimited scope scum has

That's the difference between 'scum can technically do this' and 'scum actually choose to do this in practice'

[Klick]

I feel like I still don't have a satisfying explanation for why you believe I was trying to 'pocket furtive' when everything about the gamestate suggests that would be a really stupid thing to attempt as scum AND my actions don't align with that in any way other than believing you were scum and furtive was town

[Klick]

you still defend yourself from a position of WIFOM of 'me scum wouldn't do that' immediately after doing it

Literally everything is WIFOM if you think hard but not too hard

The key piece of information you are not considering when you call this WIFOM is

Assuming I am scum and furtive is town

I am aware enough of how furtive plays to know that that kind of WIFOM would ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT ACTUALLY BE EFFECTIVE.

It's great that you can wave this away with 'lol WIFOM' but putting it in the context of this game, if I were scum here, one of the people I'd need to convince if I were trying to 'pocket furtive' is... furtive.

WHICH WOULD HAVE VERY LOW ODDS OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING IF FURTIVE WERE TOWN.

When, instead, I could just play to a Klick/Gimli/fire ELo, which has actually realistic odds for a Klick!scum victory.

[Klick]

How about the last two game days?

[Klick]

Hell, if I were scum here I could still choose to just kill furtive anyway. It'd probably be the better play.

[Klick]

I take offense on how easy you think it is to 1v1 me, even if we'd go up against fire

Not easy, but compared to convincing furtive of anything? If I were scum I'd certainly choose a 1v1 with you over 3p with you and furtive in this position

[Klick]

I think Gimli!scum is far more likely to outright refuse to consider this perspective than Gimli!town because Gimli!scum only needs to get to ELo with myself and furtive.

I'd like your opinion on the above reasoning fire

[Klick]

let me put this in a way you understand: if I'm scum then it makes so much more sense for me to push for no elim again and then kill fireisred and then take you to f3 with furtive. which is what you're using to defend yourself from accusations of being scum, that you'd push no elim and kill furtive. do you see how your defense is hot air?

if furtive is scum then he has no reason not to push for no elim again and then kill fireisred and then win with me

oh jee it works with everybody

The key difference being, again, the part you've chosen not to consider

The key piece of information you are not considering when you call this WIFOM is

Assuming I am scum and furtive is town

I am aware enough of how furtive plays to know that that kind of WIFOM would ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT ACTUALLY BE EFFECTIVE.

[Klick]

And I'm telling you it's not and giving you evidence for that claim

What is your response to that evidence?

Specifically, I'm talking about the quoted part of 6338

[Klick]

This part here, specifically

The key piece of information you are not considering when you call this WIFOM is

Assuming I am scum and furtive is town

I am aware enough of how furtive plays to know that that kind of WIFOM would ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT ACTUALLY BE EFFECTIVE.

[Klick]

I wrote this to Gimli a few hours ago but lost WiFi
I haven't read new stuff yet. Having a nap, will read it later.

Right, let's break this up more fundamentally

[6349]

Could you push for no elim, kill fire, and then go ELo with me and furtive? Yeah.
Is that Gimli!scum's only realistic method of winning? No, you have a few options. Gimli!scum is generally fine in the current gamestate and has been for a while.

[6350]

Could furtive!scum push for another no elim, kill fire, and then go ELo with me and Gimli? Yeah.
Is that furtive!scum's only realistic method of winning? No, furtive has a few options. furtive!scum is generally fine in the current gamestate and has been for a while.

Now, could Klick!scum push for no elim, kill furtive, and then go to ELo with you and fire? Yeah.
Is that Klick!scum's only realistic method of winning? YES. Because if I'm scum, furtive is town, and he's been consistently stating a scumread on me, and I know how he plays and am aware that he won't realistically change his mind against the evidence of this argument. This argument has potential to have impact on you, on fire, or on myself, but it is completely unreasonable for Klick!scum to stake his game plan on this argument swaying furtive, because it's not an argument that furtive would be convinced by.

[Klick]

I think Gimli!scum is far more likely to outright refuse to consider this perspective than Gimli!town because Gimli!scum only needs to get to ELo with myself and furtive.

I'd like your opinion on the above reasoning fire

mmm maybe

i think you could argue for anybody that continuing the stalemate is fine/good bc then they can just kill whoever they don't like and get a favorable 3p. but i think that scum could take other paths

i think you have different opinions on what gimli would/could play like both as town and as scum than i do and not knowing where those are coming from is actually one of my bigger hesitations with you

cause the whole line of "i have a lot of respect for gimli's abilities" and talking about how much you like the way he solves or whatever felt kind of out of place and pockety at the time but then that high level of respect seems like it's also being used to keep considering him as scum at a point where i think he's miles out of range, and also doing things that i would expect him to do as town

it has felt at times to me like stretching things a bit past the point of reasonableness. but if you're town then clearly we have different thoughts on gimli and maybe one of us is wrong

maybe you can explain what experiences you had with gimli that led you to feel the way you do?

So starting point: I know that I have a lot of respect for Gimli's play as town. That largely comes from this game, where Gimli replaced in and consistently gave correct takes and argued them effectively. His townread on me was right for the right reasons, as were several of his other reads. He demonstrated really strong levels of critical thinking and using it effectively. (Notably, that game started after this one did - these are thoughts that have developed about Gimli as this game has run its course.)

The thing is, I agree with you that Gimli's current play more closely matches what I've seen from Gimli's town meta than from his scum meta, on a surface level. It's been a while since I did the meta dive on Gimli's scum games, but I agree that what he has done thus far on site has been rather limited as scum and he has surpassed it in this game.

Here is my current theory: if Gimli is scum in this game, it is the first time he has had to play the role of 'carry' as scum, and thus that's making him level up his scum game individually. A large part of every scum game Gimli has played on-site has been his ability to set his partners up for success; I noticed that in reading over his games, T-Bone notes it in his recent nomination of Gimli for a Scummie when they were partners together (found here). When Gimli and I were scum together in our first game together, his intention was to get himself eliminated in a way that set me up for endgame, before realising that we were playing White Flag and therefore he shouldn't have been playing that way (link). Overall it seems clear to me that Gimli chooses to play scum as a support role, where he props up his partners for endgame instead of himself. I think this is something he would acknowledge as true.

In this game, that kind of play fundamentally would not be possible for Gimli!scum. The first three scum all were eliminated in the first three Days. If Gimli is scum here, he couldn't play by his normal game plan, by what you or me have seen before from him as scum. He had to carry the team. Which is why we're seeing leveled-up play compared to what we'd expect. The idea is that Gimli is

capable

of playing a rather strong individual scum game (and is doing so here), but normally chooses not to do so in favor of propping up his team. (My support for believing this is plausible is that I know Gimli highly values teamwork in this game in general; he has frequently praised me for being a 'team player' in my town games so I know he cares about that; and the previously mentioned high-level critical thinking skills that he has.)

The thing is, in Gimli's scum games, even though the

output

that he gives in-thread isn't super towny-looking, he is clearly thinking really hard about how to set up the carry and you can see it in how he communicates in scum PTs. He plays scum at a high level, it just usually isn't with the ultimate goal of getting him to endgame. Since it would be necessary for Gimli to endgame in this game from very early on if he's scum, I believe that would necessitate a massive change from his usual play.


Typing this out into words has given me a bit more conviction in it as an idea than I had beforehand. The thing is, the main reason I'm considering it at all is because we're in a situation where one of Gimli/furtive is scum choosing to go after me, and the other is town who is misguided on me. Between those two options, my interpretation of what's happening right now is that furtive has been wrongly scumreading me all game and refuses to reconsider, and Gimli is scum who has locked onto me as a win condition. It feels a lot more likely to me than Gimli wrongly deciding I must be scum today and all of his posts pushing that idea forward, and furtive being scum benefitting from this push. Furtive feels like town today and Gimli feels like scum today.

[Klick]

Spoiler: When it Klicked for Gimli

I think its klick with a traitor role

MT can u go over everything that happened in hood with u and rest of dead townies?
I feel like there could be something there.

Absolutely.

Grimme Troupe (Black + Peta)

Black knew he was going to die. He said well-played to me if scum, but also said I should have been replaced so im a little confused what exactly he was saying about me.

Peta said that smart cash money $$$ is on Klick, he thinks.

Black questioned whether Klick was trying to find scum -- pointing out for instance that Klick votes for wagons even if he thinks they're town (Alisae for instance). He concluded off with saying that he thinks it's either FB or Klick, but expressed dissatisfaction with himself

I agreed with Black regarding the Alisae point (I thought E was obvtown immediately after the cakez flip, so much so i healed em) but I dont think he could tell what i was saying lol.

Petapan says that he's been turned off to the game for a while (mood) but thinks from gameplay and role perspective, klick made the most sense

Black said that he didn't understand why scum isn't killing Firebringer.

-----

My lingering questions:

The Firefluffer problem

Why isn't scum killing Firebringer? I understand that he hides behind people and clears them somehow -- so... why no kill that. The obvious answer to that would be "He's hiding".

i can hide behind someone to prevent my death. if they die that night i die.
alternatively if i hide behind someone who is performing a kill, i will die instead of their target.

Ah. That's a supremely good role, isn't it? Now that you've claimed that last bit and turned it into an investigative

But in order to do that, you have to announce your targets. So why hasn't scum shot one of those targets and killed Fire? Black's last thoughts and my own at this point.

Even if the target is nullish/scummy, it's more than worth it to shoot Firewoofer too. From what i can tell after he claimed, he said he'd hide behind either FireR or redFF.

Fire's role isn't gated like everyone else's. And it's so good. Get rid of him. Why aren't they?

It was a 50/50 shot, so scum couldn't kill him for sure, they had to guess between FireR/redFF (he didnt indicate which he was picking). So that could be why. Would be disastrous to miss that. That's probably why Fire's alive as town.

,,,,,,,,

Petapan's final remaining suspicion

Petapan said that role-wise and gameplay-wise Klick made the most sense to him. He didn't elaborate much on that but it is interesting to me he would say tgameplay and role -- what is Klicks role

Scum already know my role and I'm gonna get hero shot by furtive tonight so I'll jump the queue

Each night I can choose to write an anonymous message for the mod to post at day start
N1 I deliberately chose not to do this because I had nothing to say - I was hoping Cakez would be an investigative and I could out his results anonymously
N2 I just fell asleep before writing a message (evidence: it's 3:45am right now)

Bruh

So it's a reporter and functionally not very helpful. What were the other scum?

Cakez - nonconsecutive commuter
TSQ - 4-shot flavour/role cop
ActionDan - 3-shot combined roleblocker/rolestopper

Yeah i could see it. Klick could also have other power not claimed. Sure.

But what about gameplay-wise?

Spoiler: Klick on Cakez

TOWN
furtiveglance
Morning Tweet
Black
SirCakez
Alisae

LEANING TOWN
Firebringer
VP Baltar
Gimli

NULL
Mistyx
Asri Teroka
Aristeia
redFF
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
Lycanfire
Cat Scratch Fever

SCUM

TOWN
Morning Tweet
Black
Asri Teroka
Alisae
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
furtiveglance
SirCakez
redFF
VP Baltar
Cat Scratch Fever

NULL
Gimli
Mistyx
Aristeia
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
Lycanfire

SCUM

I'd really like him to explain why he's townreading Cakez though.

I've had thoughts on this since last night but I went to sleep instead of responding.

Basically, I think my Cakez townread was poor. Early in Cakez's posting I thought his forwardness and willingness to bring a lot of opinions to the table was towny. I think this was biased somewhat by comparing him to Lycanfire in my head and thinking, 'well Cakez is being pretty free with his reads and Lycan isn't doing anything so if there's a scum between them it's more likely to be Lycan.' Which isn't a well-thought-out point.
In my last reads list I brought Cakez down a bit because I kinda realised this but still wanted to give credit to my initial gut ping.

I think ultimately I townread what you are scumreading. I ISO'd Cakez late last night and felt pretty similarly to you, that what he was doing could pretty easily be scum projecting false confidence. I don't feel strongly about it but with you saying it's his scum meta I kinda want to sheep you on it.

VOTE: SirCakez

TOWN
Morning Tweet
Black
Asri Teroka
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
Cat Scratch Fever
Aristeia
furtiveglance
Alisae
VP Baltar

NULL
redFF
Gimli
Mistyx
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
{Lycanfire, SirCakez}

SCUM

Considered thoughts are closer to here
The whole list is ordered
At this point petapan being leaning scum is kind of a meme but I like it anyway

I'm going to make a reads list completely from scratch based on my very removed impressions of everyone right now

TOWN
Aristeia
Black
furtiveglance
Asri Teroka
Thestatusquo
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
fireisredsir
Cat Scratch Fever
SirCakez
Morning Tweet

NULL
Alisae
petapan
redFF

LEANING SCUM
Gimli
Mistyx
ActionDan

Klick has Cakez town early, reconsiders at the behest of Ari questioning the TR, has him in scum for a while, then he shifts back to being a townread but i dont see a discernible reason why anywhere

Cakez stays as town for Klick a long while (i wont bother quoting the many posts where Cakez is around the 4th or 5th most highest TR for Klick) all the way up until the guilty. Klick tried to get Cakez to claim his role privately to him, which he did, and Klick believed it and defended cakez (until he got guiltied a little later)

Klick also has TSQ as high town during D1 before any deaths (2150, 2207) -- but as soon as TSQ gets guiltied, Klick says:

oh also i have another guilty - tsq visited csf

Makes me feel good about where my reads list was up to last night

Spoiler: reads

100% TOWN
petapan
Aristeia
furtiveglance

OBVIOUS TOWN
Alisae
Cat Scratch Fever
Black

VERY LIKELY TOWN
Asri Teroka
Gimli
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
redFF
Mistyx
fireisredsir

POE SCUMMY
Morning Tweet
Thestatusquo

Klick apparently TSQ as town but then started suspecting him the night before the morning of the guilty happened. Which is a little convenient, Klick's might be trying to get away with keeping Cakez and TSQ as high as possible until they can't anymore. Maybe because ActionDan got limmed so early in part thanks to Klick

I mean, I'm grasping a little bit here because my own interactiojns with TSQ and Cakez are YIKES because i recall townreading them both (Cakez primarily). But still seems very noteworthy.

Especially considering there is NOTHING role-wise that clears klick, and it *seeeems* to me based on about an hour skim that Klick didn't cause the thread to go in TSQ or Cakez directions, only ActionDans

I see what peta was trying to get at when he said role-wise and gameplay-wise he couldnt rule out Klick. So far I'm with him.

Firebringer - See: firefluffer problem
Aristeia - guiltied multiple scum
fireisredsir - INNOed by Firebringer
Gimli - Obviously suggested killing himself and me but also he just kinda seems towny. Also the giving guns ability, didn't need to give it to Ari and suggest shooting him with it,
furtiveglance - I actually forgot about furtive. Sorry. He's a Lazy Jailkeeper. I see he shot Misty. I skimmed and couldn't find the precise reason why it's not him. I assume it's night action based
Klick -
Morning Tweet - not in a PT with living players

My role for anyone that cares

I'm Hornet. I think it's like a tsundere type deal where i attack but also, i

protect

. I dig it.

I think it's Klick, but barring that, it's technically possible for it to be Gimli. And everyone is taking furtive as town for granted, I assume he did a jailkeep that was pivotal and i just cant bother to find it RN. I believe Firewoof/Aristeia/fireisred can safely be ignored.

peta and black were solving it as being just klick and then peta died and ari shot black

those conversations never had the relevant impact ITT, that's why klick is still here

VOTE: klick

I thought a lot about this game and this is where I'm at and sorry if I'm wrong

I think this stuff is town

I also think this is furtive genuinely trying to solve for Gimli's alignment

[Klick]

It could be fake

I just don't think it is

I think Klick's reactive vote and then him saying he thought it was Gimli all along looked sus

Okay, it 'looked sus'
Why does Klick!scum contrive this elaborate 'I thought it was Gimli all along!' stuff coming into today

to try to persuade you? I'm not dumb, I'm aware that you wouldn't find that towny
I said it because it was true

[Klick]

YES. Because if I'm scum, furtive is town, and he's been consistently stating a scumread on me, and I know how he plays and am aware that he won't realistically change his mind against the evidence of this argument.

I think it's interesting how much you're painting furtive as some kind of death tunneler who never changes his mind. the only times I saw furtive having a strong neverchanging opinion on someone, it was twice against me and I was scum and he was right both times. maybe your experience with him differs though so, okay.

speaking of which, if I'm scum I'd never keep furtive alive cause he knows me better than the rest of the playerlist, caught me real hard twice already and I'd be scared of playing it out with him around. if I'm scum I just take aristeia with me to d8. hell if I'm scum I keep peta around and kill furtive in n5. have you considered that these NAs make little sense for me to make as scum?

If you believe this then you should also believe that I never let furtive get this far if I'm scum either.

[Klick]

It has been a long while since I looked at Gimli's early game but I don't remember there being anything that feels outside of what I'd expect from him as scum from before D4.

[Klick]

Why does Klick!scum feel desperate?

[Klick]

If you believe this then you should also believe that I never let furtive get this far if I'm scum either.

No, I think you do since your opinion of furtive is that he is unreasonable when he is town

Why is this more significant than the massive flag furtive has been waving all game saying 'Klick is scum'?

[Klick]

Lock clear + discredit. You can't even sus him cause you'll need to kill him tonight

Please kill him tonight I would greatly appreciate it

[Klick]

Did Ari and furtive tunnel me because they were right and I'm scum or did they tunnel me because they have a pattern of tunneling me for my playstyle (something you acknowledge to be true)?
Why does CSF of all people die on N2 when she had a townread on me over someone like furtive or especially Ari?
Doesn't it seem much more reasonable to assume that peta and Ari were largely killed because they were basically clear than because of their scumreads on me? What regarding the decision of the scum to kill peta and Ari when they did strongly points to me being scum over anyone else in this game?

I think Arinis very similar to furtive in that if I were scum I'd want her dead, because she naturally scumreads me. So it's curious that CSF and petapan both died before either Ari or furtive. Petapan may have scumread me but I wouldn't fear him tunneling me to death like I would Ari or furtive.

[Klick]

sorry klick i don't see it

i don't think it's gimli

Do you have more concrete thoughts on 6374?

If you're in a place where you flat-out can't see yourself coming to the conclusion that Gimli is the correct vote, I'll put a vote down on furtive to clear-check him
I keep coming back to Gimli as my answer but I won't say I'm definitely right

[Klick]

elo is hard for scum. it's hard to maintain solving, it's hard to keep your thought processes consistent and show progression and explain yourself without ever slipping up in your mindset. it's hard to realtime with people and talk to them and make sure your reactions are what they will think looks town

you and klick have both dove headfirst into doing all of that

because you're trying to solve the game and it's genuine

furtive hasn't

I get what you're saying here and understand it

My main conflict I'd that I wouldn't expect different from furtive here if furtive were town
I wouldn't expect that kind of solving, furtive hasn't shown evidence to me previously of solving at that level

[Klick]

i literally just explained how it makes sense are you even reading the game

yeah but your explanation is thin, it's still far superior for town!klick to play f3 against two unclears than to give the win to who he thinks is mafia.

You are removing this from its context and it reads as incredibly intentional to me
You're providing zero evaluation of everyone's likelihood of winning in a Klick/Gimli/furtive F3 and just going 'lol obviously everyone has a better shot of winning as scum if they're against 2 unclears'

If I'm town, and you're town, and you've basically openly stated that you'd vote me at F3...
And if you're scum and furtive is basically openly stating that he just wants to vote me...

Then Klick's odds of winning, regardless of alignment, are basically nil in a Klick/Gimli/furtive F3.

Agree or disagree?

[Klick]

Right, it did, but for most of the time it was on Klick

Fire, if you vote me here, Klick will join. He said as much. And that makes zero sense if he thinks it's Gimli like he said he did! It's very clearly desperation. I know it's hard to see when you're the one getting pocketed but you are.

Weirdly, I'd rather bet on the less likely player being scum than get voted out and definitely lose

[Klick]

Klick: *says anything*
Gimli AND furtive: 'What a terrible and blatant attempt at manipulation, could you make this any more obvious?'

[Klick]

klick you haven't answered me if you have previous games with furtive and aristeia where they have tunneled you as townies, in order to properly justify what you were saying in #6390

I see you ignored my questions, then ignored that I said you ignored them, and you are now asking me other unrelated things

I have very limited time and I think you're scum
I've spent a VERY large portion of my time budget responding to your continued back and forth with me, don't pretend I'm just ignoring you.

Furtive does have at least a couple of games where he has had exactly this attitude towards my way of playing as town yes
Ari doesn't have more than that Micro. I think that Micro and this game is sufficient evidence for Ari having that reaction to my way of playing.

[Klick]

notice how the micro we played cannot be used as a justification to argue you'd kill ari over petapan, since ari didn't start tunneling you in that game at least one day after peta died in this game

I haven't verified if this is true or not
I don't think this is particularly important though!

[Klick]

i literally just explained how it makes sense are you even reading the game

yeah but your explanation is thin, it's still far superior for town!klick to play f3 against two unclears than to give the win to who he thinks is mafia.

You are removing this from its context and it reads as incredibly intentional to me
You're providing zero evaluation of everyone's likelihood of winning in a Klick/Gimli/furtive F3 and just going 'lol obviously everyone has a better shot of winning as scum if they're against 2 unclears'

If I'm town, and you're town, and you've basically openly stated that you'd vote me at F3...
And if you're scum and furtive is basically openly stating that he just wants to vote me...

Then Klick's odds of winning, regardless of alignment, are basically nil in a Klick/Gimli/furtive F3.

Agree or disagree?

you don't think I can find you as town if you're town all of a sudden?

I have been consistently presenting my perspective and you have insistently stonewalled the idea of reconsidering your perspective
You have openly stated that you aren't interested in reconsidering today, like, in the last page or two lmao

[Klick]

you were justifying that you wouldn't kill peta over ari cause ari tunnels you on style in #6390

but she tunneled you after peta died here

and you have no other games with her

so

Congrats you win this argument on technicality
When I was making the argument in 6390 I wasn't aware/conscious of the fact that that game's events happened after peta died in this game
And so that wasn't on my mind when I posited that as reasoning

[Klick]

Right, it did, but for most of the time it was on Klick

Fire, if you vote me here, Klick will join. He said as much. And that makes zero sense if he thinks it's Gimli like he said he did! It's very clearly desperation. I know it's hard to see when you're the one getting pocketed but you are.

Weirdly, I'd rather bet on the less likely player being scum than get voted out and definitely lose

you're phrasing it in a way that could be interpreted as you saying its more likely furtive

since i'd be the less likely player being scum in this situation

No I clearly think you're more likely to be scum

[Klick]

Klick: *says anything*
Gimli AND furtive: 'What a terrible and blatant attempt at manipulation, could you make this any more obvious?'

That's what it looks like to me, you're saying I never play well as town

I don't have a high opinion of your town play.

I'm sorry but that is a truthful statement of hoe I view your current town play.

[Klick]

Gtg bye all TTYL!

[Klick]

Writing this in a van without WiFi

Here's where I'm currently at fire. These are the strongest thoughts that are currently going around in my head about the current position. These aren't really points I'm interested in having arguments about, they're largely things that have been discussed in some form already today, but they're the things that are most strongly influencing my current read on/playing in the gamestate.

- I am very surprised that Gimli is opposing my perspective on basically everything I say today as strongly as he is. I feel like he is locking himself into an opposing perspective from me, and there have been several points today where I feel like there would have been significantly more understanding from Gimli about where my head is at if he were town. I feel as though Gimli is

trying

not to see what I'm saying from a town perspective, and when presented with ideas that suggest my thought could be town thought from both me and yourself, he is unwilling to open his position to those ideas at all. This feels like it would not be happening if he is town and would be happening if he is scum.
- Regarding roles and mech: I think the evidence points to scum having some form of non-consecutive kill. This seems to have been widely accepted today. I think this clearly and naturally aligns with Gimli's role... literally being a form of non-consecutive killing ability. It makes a lot of sense to me for Gimli's role to be the unknown scum role that is killing non-consecutively.
- There's less than 2 days left. I believe day ending without scum getting eliminated is a loss condition at this point. I don't think my words are going to get very far with whoever between furtive or Gimli is town. We're at the point where if we're going to potentially make this game a win, the action to make that possible needs to be happening now. From a consequential point of view, if you assume that I'm town, a no lim today is essentially a vote against me tomorrow with where current positions are. (No, I do not believe that Gimli intends to reevaluate things in an ELo, regardless of his alignment. That's inconsistent with his words and behaviour for most of the Day.) If Gimli or furtive are scum, the window for making those eliminations happen is closing imminently.

[Klick]

The first two points above were written a couple of hours ago, sober
The last one was written a couple of minutes ago, slightly intoxicated

[Klick]

i think that gimli prob would have played things differently if he knew that at some point it would be clear to all that there was a nonconsecutive scum killing action

i think he'd take it more for granted that it points to him and i don't really think he could or would pull off acting uninformed about that (not really talking about now, more earlier in the game)

How early are you talking? Before D3 I don't think it would be reasonably clear that this situation would happen because they wouldn't expect Gimli to have to endgame.

[Klick]

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Klick]

Don't be too worried if this is wrong. I think this is a very tricky endgame regardless of the answer

[Klick]

Gg Gimli <3 you played amazingly.

I'll at least take pride in arriving at the solve

[Klick]

Confidence. Confidence. Confidence. I know how to find scum, I just need to be more of an asshole about it lmao.

Realistically we needed to take action earlier in this game, like around the time we were eliminating Tweet who everyone knew was town