Hollow Knight Mafia [game over]

[fireisredsir]

what about that seems natural or difficult to fake when it was something that he had prepared overnight (pretty clearly, as either alignment. those were his first posts of the day)

[fireisredsir]

i think the CSF kill probably makes the most sense as being due to the fact that she had shea as her top suspect (and nobody else did, i think), and probably whoever is scum here isn't groupscum

so that was the only read that mattered to shea, who made the kill

[fireisredsir]

sorry klick i don't see it

i don't think it's gimli

[fireisredsir]

i kinda am thinking that if klick/gimli is t/t the most likely way we win is by clearing one of them

[fireisredsir]

and if they're not then it's on me

[fireisredsir]

i dunno maybe i should be seeing that if it really was t/t you'd find each other eventually and not just get more and more convinced which is what it seems like is happening

[fireisredsir]

in my heart i think i know that furtive's role makes the least amount of sense mechanically but i just keep reading klick and gimli as town

[fireisredsir]

im not built for this

[fireisredsir]

the good news is that if it's 3p or traitor then the dead scum might not even know who it is

so the dead thread isn't spoiled

so hopefully not too many people are yelling at me for being dumb

[fireisredsir]

my most concrete thought about it was that i thought you were town from it moreso than being convinced by it

i think it's believable and i can kinda see where you're coming from but even taking into account that maybe replacing in + playing a support role lessened his play in previous games, there's moments here that just feel so far out of that range that's it's hard to imagine

not that i think he's necessarily incapable of it. it's just that when he has been scum i feel like his mindset slips through sometimes and he kind of TMIs about the position that he's in. and i really haven't felt that at all

especially in the last few days where there's been a lot of back and forth from multiple angles and various shifting paths to victory that he would have to be keeping tabs on as scum, it's really hard not to slip up and let your motivations be visible

[fireisredsir]

i know he says that he was in a losing position in white flag and so he didn't really have the energy to fight it (plus oog stuff). but i think his position here was way worse. i think a wolf confident in their abilities could have won white flag from his position

but i think he would have to be way more confident and assured in himself to make the choices that he made here and play the way that he's played

[fireisredsir]

gimli come here talk to me

[fireisredsir]

what are your thoughts rn

let me see into your brain pls

[fireisredsir]

do you think we win this game

[fireisredsir]

hm

[fireisredsir]

expand

[fireisredsir]

how sure are you

[fireisredsir]

100% transparency please

[fireisredsir]

i don't think you understand how klick thinks at all tbh

[fireisredsir]

like whether he is scum or town i think his mindset is consistent and makes sense here

[fireisredsir]

he does think it's more likely to be you but he is never winning a 3p against you and furtive

if i make the decision that i will not vote you then he basically has to accept that if you're scum you win in that moment regardless of what happens after that moment

and the best chance of town winning would be resolving that immediately so that if you aren't actually scum, we have more to work with and might actually win rather than klick just getting elimmed in 3p with you two for a loss

[fireisredsir]

its really very difficult for me to believe that you don't understand that town klick always dies in 3p here

if nothing he has said to this point has changed the mind of whoever is town between you and furtive then nothing will

[fireisredsir]

i know you think that

[fireisredsir]

you asked me if it makes sense as town

it does

[fireisredsir]

furtive is the only one here who is hesitant to engage with people and be transparent and explain thought processes

[fireisredsir]

elo is hard for scum. it's hard to maintain solving, it's hard to keep your thought processes consistent and show progression and explain yourself without ever slipping up in your mindset. it's hard to realtime with people and talk to them and make sure your reactions are what they will think looks town

you and klick have both dove headfirst into doing all of that

because you're trying to solve the game and it's genuine

furtive hasn't

[fireisredsir]

Fire I explained enough

The questions you asked me were a little too socratic...it's like cmon we're going over the same ground again and again

you barely explained anything lol

[fireisredsir]

that literally isn't true though

you were so unsure that you said it was a toss up for you and that "klick was just a guess and a feeling" and insisted on a no elim

[fireisredsir]

and the times at which your opinions have changed don't seem to track to anything that has actually happened in thread

[fireisredsir]

i know that what you said was strictly accurate, i am saying that your progression is unsupported

you said "I've thought it was klick for a while" as if that should be all the explanation you need and your suspicion has never wavered

but it did

[fireisredsir]

i just don't really believe that you have this anemic of a process as town

[fireisredsir]

i literally just explained how it makes sense are you even reading the game

[fireisredsir]

i would probably do more or less exactly what klick did if i was in the same position as town

[fireisredsir]

it's not like he's at all 100% locked in on thinking it's gimli anyway

[fireisredsir]

i would be an awful lawyer ngl

[fireisredsir]

the thing is im not even 100% that it isn't klick

i just think that a lot of the things that you're suspecting him for are actually things that make total sense as town to me

if he's scum he's playing a very good game and idk maybe you both can just see right through it and not doubt things but it feels wrong to me

i don't really get what furtive has done that has you convinced he's town either

[fireisredsir]

Right, it did, but for most of the time it was on Klick

Fire, if you vote me here, Klick will join. He said as much. And that makes zero sense if he thinks it's Gimli like he said he did! It's very clearly desperation. I know it's hard to see when you're the one getting pocketed but you are.

Weirdly, I'd rather bet on the less likely player being scum than get voted out and definitely lose

you're phrasing it in a way that could be interpreted as you saying its more likely furtive

since i'd be the less likely player being scum in this situation

No I clearly think you're more likely to be scum

so you phrased it wrong?

its just that then you looked more reasonable when you phrased it wrong, when you're actually saying 'I'm betting on the most likely player to be scum', which feels rather odd

klick believes furtive is less likely to be scum than you

klick is saying that he'd rather take the bet that the less likely player (furtive) is scum than just lose the game

it was phrased correctly

[fireisredsir]

Writing this in a van without WiFi

Here's where I'm currently at fire. These are the strongest thoughts that are currently going around in my head about the current position. These aren't really points I'm interested in having arguments about, they're largely things that have been discussed in some form already today, but they're the things that are most strongly influencing my current read on/playing in the gamestate.

- I am very surprised that Gimli is opposing my perspective on basically everything I say today as strongly as he is. I feel like he is locking himself into an opposing perspective from me, and there have been several points today where I feel like there would have been significantly more understanding from Gimli about where my head is at if he were town. I feel as though Gimli is

trying

not to see what I'm saying from a town perspective, and when presented with ideas that suggest my thought could be town thought from both me and yourself, he is unwilling to open his position to those ideas at all. This feels like it would not be happening if he is town and would be happening if he is scum.
- Regarding roles and mech: I think the evidence points to scum having some form of non-consecutive kill. This seems to have been widely accepted today. I think this clearly and naturally aligns with Gimli's role... literally being a form of non-consecutive killing ability. It makes a lot of sense to me for Gimli's role to be the unknown scum role that is killing non-consecutively.
- There's less than 2 days left. I believe day ending without scum getting eliminated is a loss condition at this point. I don't think my words are going to get very far with whoever between furtive or Gimli is town. We're at the point where if we're going to potentially make this game a win, the action to make that possible needs to be happening now. From a consequential point of view, if you assume that I'm town, a no lim today is essentially a vote against me tomorrow with where current positions are. (No, I do not believe that Gimli intends to reevaluate things in an ELo, regardless of his alignment. That's inconsistent with his words and behaviour for most of the Day.) If Gimli or furtive are scum, the window for making those eliminations happen is closing imminently.

i don't think that gimli would necessarily be more reasonable as town than he is being here. i tend to think that he makes up his mind on things early and then fits things to that view, and occasionally suddenly flips his pov. this feels like it more or less fits that pattern except that i agree he's a little more tunneled than I'd expect, just not to the degree that it outweighs me feeling like his play is town

i agree with the second point and it is probably the biggest thing that is making me feel like i will feel dumb if it does end up just being him

the third point is probably true

[fireisredsir]

klick believes furtive is less likely to be scum than you

klick is saying that he'd rather take the bet that the less likely player (furtive) is scum than just lose the game

it was phrased correctly

how does clearing me not lose the game for klick, unless the plan is to NK me?

having two clears makes the situation different enough imo that there is a possible way town wins in a town klick world

[fireisredsir]

i think that gimli prob would have played things differently if he knew that at some point it would be clear to all that there was a nonconsecutive scum killing action

i think he'd take it more for granted that it points to him and i don't really think he could or would pull off acting uninformed about that (not really talking about now, more earlier in the game)

[fireisredsir]

well yeah if I die

don't you think?

i think it might be better not talk too much now about what i would think based on who gets nightkilled

[fireisredsir]

alright i want to clear gimli, klick can you vote furtive? my fault if it's wrong

[fireisredsir]

Yeah fire we've both made up our minds I think.

Like I said, you can hammer or tie

this is a scum post

[fireisredsir]

ngl i didn't feel super great about my real time w gimli earlier but klick is correct that it's getting too late to keep debating about things

[fireisredsir]

that is possible yeah

[fireisredsir]

why would clearing gimli make us lose?

[fireisredsir]

@

[fireisredsir]

ok well

was waiting for gimli to be around but whatever

VOTE: furtiveglance

ill be around before deadline if game doesn't end while i sleep

[fireisredsir]

really well played gimli! and gj finding him klick

i think i dislike 4p elo more than 3p elo, it sucks

[fireisredsir]

Confidence. Confidence. Confidence. I know how to find scum, I just need to be more of an asshole about it lmao.

Realistically we needed to take action earlier in this game, like around the time we were eliminating Tweet who everyone knew was town

yea my main regret for this game is not doing anything to stop the chain of town elims that we rolled through and just not really playing for a few days. if that hadn't happened i think we have a better chance

trying for "autowin" and just rolling the dice over and over again is stupid

[fireisredsir]

it's unfortunate the dead thread got spoiled so early, was looking forward to reading it. spoiled dead threads are way less fun