Sushi Mafia! Game Over

[Jahudo]

Hello. I'll get to reading and post tomorrow.

[Jahudo]

I'm done reading but I have to go back and look over PiP and the recent wagons more closely before I place my vote. A couple things...

1. - I think it's unlikely that each night an action prevented a second kill from happening, because that would mean over 7 nights there was a double kill, doc, rb, or something to that extent. Given that this is a large theme game I have a feeling that there is something going on besides fish flavored names, so a kill-less mafia is possible.

2. - I think that we have a second scum group, either a second smaller mafia (2-3 members) or an SK, that can kill. The majority of these night kills do not look like the work of a vig. I think going over PiP's posts will be valuable because I think he was actively trying to scumhunt the other group and he may have been truthful instead of just BS'ing.

3. - I would not rule out the possibility of one more pre-cooked mafia member (depending on whether we have an SK or a second mafia).

4. - To me the Knife Cop indicates someone that is told whether a player has a knife or not (See: Flavor Cop). Until we see a second kill flavor I assume that means any night killer (mafia, SK, or vig if such exists).

Questions:

DGB was scum. We'd better not trust her information.

FoS for this post. Could be a way of protecting a scumbuddy.

Assuming she's correct, this leaves us raiderscum and tonyscum. Seraphim looks pretty town so we don't even need to look into that.

Actually I'm willing to test this.

Unvote, Vote WhereIsTony

@hp leaves: What about DGB's bet made you vote Tony? She wasn't saying that he could be scum.

If there are two scum groups, chances are it would be 3:3:18 in order to be balanced.

@Seraphim: What made you think of that setup balance? I remember you were in Mafia 86 but you were replaced early on. Did you ever read the end of that game?

[Jahudo]

Mafia 86? Was that Dead Rikamaru's game?

Yeah. Here's the link. The anti-town forces were much larger than people expected.

[Jahudo]

RBT has as much as posts as OGML, which is semi-lurking. Also, her posts usually consist of agreeing with other people.

She also doesn't mind being the deciding vote if a choice has to be made!

Eh? Where'd OGML come into this?

Having as much posts in Day 8 as a person who died Day 2 is pretty much lurking imo.

That's true but maybe OGML was posting alot more than average. I'll try to dig up RBT's other games around that time and how often she posts.

[Jahudo]

My read on millar

Post 1334 - Votes Seraphim to L-1 on his second post as a replacement, doesn’t give any tangible reasoning behind the vote. Acts defensive in that vote post, as if he expects to get flak for his vote.

I don’t like that he votes without giving examples of why he thinks Seraphim is scummy. That is something everyone should do before they put someone to L-1. I don’t like that he preemptively creates a defense for himself, it looks like he’s trying to plan a way to get Seraphim lynched without getting heat for it. It looks like bad intentions.

Post 1337 - (not a very elite post) but doesn’t explain why Seraphim is most scummy. I don’t like his defense that as a replacement he is impartial…that just doesn’t make sense. He’s in the game to win it. He has a win condition. He can’t be impartial.

Post 1341 - looks like an excuse not to provide quotes. To me it looks like someone that doesn’t want to take the extra effort and time to back-up his actions. Maybe he didn’t read close enough and it would take too much effort to really justify his vote. Maybe he isn’t worried that his win condition isn’t going to be achieved.

Post 1353 - Says he doesn’t have his own opinion because he hasn’t been playing inside the game enough to get a vibe. I can agree with this to an extent. It is hard to read a game that was months in the making and get the same perspective as people who have lived through it. But that shouldn’t prevent someone from explaining such a critical vote. It is too late in the game for a gut feeling.

I’m not getting a feeling that either millar’s accusation of OMGUS from Seraphim or his self vote in post 1414 is an accurate measure of his alignment. It looks more like frustration because he isn’t taking steps to hide his frustration. Post 1470 is more frustration.

Post 1376 - WIFOM. Also you would unvote because lynching him today would increase the chances of your own lynch tomorrow.

So far people want me lynched...because I am vague or just random. No real signs of scum has actually really mean shown at all

Even though I don’t like that he’s leaning on this defense instead of trying to find scum, I am getting the same feeling. He wasn’t being open so plenty of people jumped to suspect and vote him, and he closed up even more, enhancing the feeling that he is scum.

Maybe he is scum but in reading his posts I believe he is more frustrated noob town that is also acting anti-town. I want to see him get in the game and give real analysis.

[Jahudo]

I've been reading Seraphim closer but I haven't been getting a scum vibe from him. I can elaborate later but I want to look at our lurkers first.

RBT meta attempt.

Sushi Mafia
She has been playing this game for 4 months in a 24 player game as a starter.
She has 36 total posts for a average of about .3 posts per day.
Most posts are 1-2 sentences long, only 2 are close to a paragraph long.
Her alignment is ???

Mafia 85
She played for 4 months in a 25 player game as a starter.
She had 79 posts for an average of .66 posts per day.
Most posts were 1-2 sentences but about 8 posts were a paragraph or more.
She was SK.

Mushroom Kingdom Mafia
She played for 3 months in a 24 player game as a starter.
She had 107 posts for an average of 1.18 posts per day.
Most posts were 1-2 sentences but about 10 posts were a paragraph or more.
She was town.

It is hard to make a conclusion from a small sample size of large games, but I think her post length is more a style preference than an alignment tell. For some reason she hasn’t had nearly the number of big posts in this game as others, but she also hasn’t had any where near the number of total posts in this game as others.

RBT: Can you explain why you were more active in these games than you are in this game?

My read on her:

-Self vote. I read it as a joke on her name, I don’t think the action or the timing is suspect.

-Her first vote on Seraphim. I read Seraphim’s vote as a prod of a lurker so I don’t see it as opportunistic. Her voting him back looks defensive and she sticks by her vote against his without looking at other people, which is what his vote was all about, so I see Seraphim’s point even more.

-Lurking. As early as post 212 she said she had some V/LA but it’s over now. Since that was only page 9 I don’t see it as an excuse to be this far below her mark for posts per day.

-Vote on Santos. She adds momentum to the wagon but doesn’t say if or how she feels about Santos; just about the wagon. She even maintains her suspicion of OGML in that post. It looks jumpy.

-Vote on Zwet. I like the pressure she adds along with her vote. I think her contribution to his wagon looks pro-town. But then she jumps on Jebus when she sees the zwet wagon has stalled. I don’t like the jump happening so fast and close to her feeling that zwets wagon had stalled.

What I’m seeing from her is a lot of wagon hops. It fits into her playstyle of posting 1-2 sentences at a time. If she sees a wagon she likes, she will add her vote but not much of an explanation. The momentum leads to faster lynches and she even said the days were happening too fast, but her playstyle continues to help the speed of the game and how quickly people are lynched.

The fact that she hasn’t been contributing full time and being visible, but her vote has been used full time to make the days go faster look like a scum lurking strategy. I think she is scum.

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My read on Minineko

In two months she has post 15 times for an average of .25 posts per day.

The only other game she has played since Feb. 22 was 5 posts over 11 days (.45 posts per day) and then he was lynched as scum. For that entire game she was posting .46 posts per day, so she maintained the same average in that entire game as she did in this most recent time frame.

I’m not sure what to make of that because she posted more in that game and she was scum. I don’t believe that lurking is an alignment tell in this case, but may be a result of having to replace in, read the game, and get a feel for it. A few of her posts make it seem that way and they look genuine.

So I don’t think it’s a scum lurking strategy but this could be as much scum trying to get into the game as town. My gut says town because early on she at least trying to look at many people’s posts in her few posts, when she could have easily limited her involvement to one viable wagon.

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In short, RBT looks scummy to me.

Vote: Riceballtail

[Jahudo]

Mod: Has Minineko been prodded? She hasn't posted in 9 days.

At the moment I really haven't seen anything. When I went over topic, Serpahim seemed scummy but his claim at L-1 seemed convincign considering he thought he was dead. All the others scummy looking players are already dead.

What about Slicey? Do you really think he is scum? If so, do you see anything scummy about him that doesn't involve him thinking you are scum?

[Jahudo]

millar needs to get into the game NOW because his lurking is anti-town.

[Jahudo]

I don't mind if dead people replace back in.

I agree we need a claim from millar.

[Jahudo]

Mmm herring...

I still think RBT is most scummy.

If RBT is still around I want an answer from her on how she's been lurking more in this game than her other large games.

Vote: Riceballtail

[Jahudo]

There's 9 alive right?

How big is this damn precooked mafia anyway?

It feeds an entire family

Do you think we're dealing with only 1 scum group?
What have you noticed since you died that first time? Did you notice anything strange in the beginning that you only now see?

[Jahudo]

Yeah, I really don't see evidence of a typical SK. Only one kill each night.

What is your idea of a typical SK? How do you account for precooked scum dying in the night? Do you think there is a vig or another mafia?

sirdan and PiP didn't look like vig kills. Another mafia is hard to balance.

[Jahudo]

I'm on board for investigating this lead. Let's see,

Always going after DGB, even after it was confirmed she was scum.

I don't know what that refers to.

Constantly pushing hard for (townie) lurker lynches, constantly ignoring RBT and WhereIsTony.
Not bothering enough with the active suspects.

This is a good point of investigation. I want to see his answer to this.

His flip-flop on AK, his flip-flop on RBT.

I see both flips but don't read them as scum tells. Have to check them out more carefully I guess.

[Jahudo]

Mod: Can you prod Riceballtail?

[Jahudo]

I don't see the minimeko case that well, although her mild IIoA might build up into something solid if she continues that behavior.

PRUFT.

[Jahudo]

It's the same as QFT but Zwetschenized. I'm trying to steal his trademark.

[Jahudo]

ortolan, who do you find most suspicious today? Who would you vote for if you had to vote?

[Jahudo]

Question for everyone: Who thinks we are in danger of lylo soon? How many scum/factions everyone think are left?

There's probably a SK to account for the mafia kills but I don't think there can be many mafia members left. Three killing factions don't make sense with the low number of night kills unless one faction can't kill but how do you balance for that? That I really have no idea about.

If we think the mafia is mostly gone we could just lynch these lurkers and if we still have a game then we can have much more active game with scumhunting going on. Right now the lurkers are dragging this game down too much.

[Jahudo]

Consider me to have a provisional vote on him until this question is answered satisfactorily (I don't want a quickhammer).

No one is in danger of a hammer yet.

You bring up some good quotes that Mineneko needs to discuss. I think he needs some motivation to speak.

Vote: Minineko

[Jahudo]

There are six living original players. Why can't any of the others have performed the kill?

I never trust "gut reads" this late in the game; it's Day 9!

I went back and checked replacements, and noticed that even with some that have been replaced more often than not, anyone who has been replaced would seem to have missed a night or more for their chance to kill.

It's usually etiquette for mods to allow replacements to have the chance to use their power role before night ends. A SK could simply check the last vote count and go for someone not being voted if they didn't have time to read everything.

I highly doubt that Minineko is the one performing any kills. I don't see why after almost everyone thinks of him as confirmed town that he would have survived a night or three later.

Are you calling Minineko confirmed town or Seraphim confirmed town?

[Jahudo]

Isn't RBT voting Seraph?

Nah, she wasn't voting anybody.

[Jahudo]

Isn't RBT voting Seraph?

Nah, she wasn't voting anybody.

RBT just voted in her last post.

I meant she hadn't been voting him before that post. I think that was what Zwet was wondering.

[Jahudo]

I think the deadline is in 5 days. Let's get organized.

People not voting, why aren't you voting?

[Jahudo]

Minineko should claim in his next post.

[Jahudo]

Yes.

He already claimed so we might as well end the day. He's committed to not acting pro-town and there's enough confidence that he is scum, so it's possible he just gave up. He has no reason as a vanilla townie to try and hide so much.

[Jahudo]

We have a back-up mod. Sometimes flavor gets lost from original mod to back-up.

[Jahudo]

Yay!

Someone guessed the redirect role in our QT. I don't mind if we post the QT.

Are there some good examples of how the precooked mafia used their size to overpower a lynch? It probably helped them that 4 of the precooks bussed Santos because after that they weren't lynched again.

And yes, the photos were great.