Stars Aligned - GAME OVER

[Magua]

/confirm

[Magua]

I would encourage anyone with insanities to claim them now, yes.

As far as noise, I'm trying to work it through. If we can narrow the group of those who might've been fetishized (?) down, and someone resuscitates the cultist kill tonight, then we have a good clear for tomorrow.

Unfortunately, since we started with an equal number of medical kits and protective wards, I think it likely that if we mass noise claimed we would have too many noise claims to make it worthwhile. I think it would end up establishing only those people who we are sure will not die tonight. It would be more useful if, after the noise claim, we had the people who warded claim who they warded, but I think that d1 is probably too early to do this thing.

[Magua]

Anyone who performed the ward action will have heard noise, regardless of anything else. So if you warded someone last night, there's no way to tell if you were targeted by a cultist or not.

Likewise, if you heard no noise, it is obvious you did not ward anyone.

But the key bit is, if you warded someone, we need to know who. We then know that person is not in danger of dying tonight, so they do not need to be doctored.

And, since we seem to be noise-claiming: I heard no noise.

[Magua]

With Tuberkulos, we have seven people so far who have heard noise. However, Kise warded, so may or may not have been targeted last night. So at this point, I'd say anyone with a medical kit should give serious thought to saving someone from this list:

xxFabianxx
Drench
dramonic
arelian
Exalt
Tuberkulos

Once we know who Kise warded, we may be able to remove another name from the list.

I never liked random voting. I do not know Mastin. However, I know I do not like people who claim scum, even as a joke. It strikes me as excessively anti-town; since the scum already know whether or not Mastin is scum, the only people he could be WIFOMing would be the town. Why do that?

Vote: Mastin

If my vote count is correct, this puts Mastin at L-9, so I'm quite comfortable with joining the bandwagon.

[Magua]

BTW, in case it isn't obvious, using ward on someone that heard noise last night, but was not involved in a Ward is useless, because they can already be targeted for death. Also, if enough people equipped resuscitation kits last night, I believe we can prevent pretty much any death. If all people that heard noise use wards on those who heard no noise, and enough people use resuscitation kits to cover all of the people that heard no noise, town will be in pretty good shape.

If you mean "use resuscitation kits to cover all of the people that heard noise" rather than "heard

no

noise", I agree.

As far as fake noise claims: assuming that no one did something like resuscitate last night, any noise claims represent a stalk or a fetish. Anyone who stalked is pretty much going to try to murder tonight, so those people will either be saved or they'll be dead. Easy to verify either way. From the pool of the rest, we would have a good upper bound on the number of scum we're dealing with, *and* we get a better chance of doctoring someone. This seems like a win to me.

Tomorrow might be more difficult with a noise claim, as Resuscitate creates noise for the target if it's not successful, but we can deal with that later.

[Magua]

Based on what I know of Mastin from reading MD, I really don't think this is any different from what he normally does. It's scummy, but I'm not really suspicious of him.

Isn't that why he does it, though? So you won't be suspicious of him even when he's scum? It seems to me a tactic that only helps you when you're scum, and only hurts the town when you're not scum. That is, it is a 100% anti-town tactic.

What would it take to make you suspicious of Mastin, then?

[Magua]

Reactions.
It *kills* the RVS, which I hate with a passion. Like, really, really hate with an extreme passion. Like "kill the RVS before the game starts"-hate.

It works extremely well at getting reactions. From said reactions, we scum hunt.

1) There was no RVS going on. We were discussing strategies. It wasn't like votes were getting lobbied around with silly reasons. In fact, your post seems to have *started* another RVS.

2) All of the reactions seem to have been negative towards you. What have you gleaned from this?

[Magua]

I didn't even think about scum fakeclaiming having heard it, to be quite frank. Don't see any motivation to do so.

Really? Because it was mentioned at least twice already. Let me go look it up.

Nyx, in post 54
nhammen mentions Nyx's mention, in post 96
Magua (that's me), in post 103

Now, considering that you started off with faking insanities, I have to say I don't find it believable that the idea of faking hearing noise hadn't crossed your mind. The idea that you claim hearing noise halfway clears you (as you do in post 122) and then turn around and say you see motivation to claim hearing noise (from the quote of you up above) indicates to me that you're just blatantly lying now.

Also, in regards to this quote of yours from post 122:

That the scum are bandwagoning me. I'm already half-way to a lynch in less than 24 hours. No bandwagon builds that fast without scum support. Hence, we're going to be looking at those on the wagon.

You are asserting that voting for someone who has claimed both scum and soon-to-be-SK is in itself scummy? Or are you asserting that town should not be lynching people who claim scum/SK?

[Magua]

EBWOP: ...and say you see

no

motivation to claim hearing nosie...

[Magua]

Why could cultists not become murderers early? The other cultists have no way of knowing who betrayed them.

The murderer win condition includes being the only murderer alive. Going murderer early is risky -- if anyone else, in the 25 player game, does as well, it's going to be a long time before you win.

In fact, it seems like it's possible for murderers to get to the point where they cannot win. If you have a murderer who kills, say, 5 people, and is then themselves killed, a murderer would have to kill 6 people and be the last murderer alive to win.

But since murderers will have to rack up the insanity pretty quickly, and we can easily tell how many murderers we're dealing with from how many people die, I'm not particularly worried about them at the moment. I'll be more worried once we have more than one kill in a night.

[Magua]

I felt that anyone who would intends on becoming a murderer would do early in the game. The earlier they become a murderer, the more people they can kill, getting an advantage in # of kills compared to other people who become murderers later.

I was thinking this through -- since it requires at least three kills to win as murderer, if the town suspects that there is a single murderer, who is close to winning...it would really be in the town's interest to nominate people to "lose" and become murderers. Or, at the extreme, take the step where they all become murderers (since otherwise, the one or two people sacrificed are essentially giving up their win condition).

I do not think that becoming murderer is a winning strategy. It is too easy to become one, which thwarts the win condition.

[Magua]

People who claimed to have warded someone last night also have an insanity rating as per the action they chose last night. What does everyone think about the players with claimed insanity rating claiming the insanities they chose?

You only gain insanity if you ward twice in a row. As it is d1, no one can have warded twice in a row. Ergo, no insanity.

Look, I'm all for scumhunting and whatnot, but this is a different game with different mechanics, and I think it's important for town to understand these mechanics -- the rules are right there in the first post, yet this is the third mistake I've seen people make in how they work (others being "does every cultist need a fetish for the ritual", and "can we prevent cult kills with enough research").

I think a lot of our success as town is going to lie in understanding how the mechanics work, and using them to our benefit (such as the noise claim leading to a better use of resuscitation).

[Magua]

Look. If Mastin has an insanity, it's because he stalked someone last night. It doesn't matter what the insanity is; stalking someone last night, or laundering last night, are the only ways to have gotten one, and my money is not on laundering.

If he stalked someone last night, the only insanity that would be worth taking would be psychopath. Why take any other insanity?

[Magua]

*sighs*

Do you think Mastin has an insanity?

If you do, how do you think he got that insanity?

[Magua]

If he has an insanity he either started with it or is town who stalked. I think the former would be more likely.

I see no rule that says anyone starts with an insanity. Why would you assume that this is the case?

If he stalked, what insanity do you think he would take?

[Magua]

I think it's pretty obvious that Mastin could vote himself when he did even if were paranoid. Just read the rule, I don't see how it could be interpreted in any other way.

Magua, you do realize that you can kill N1 without having to take the psychopath-insanity N0?

I do realize this. However, if you are going to stalk someone, why would you take some other insanity instead of Psychopath? If you're going to play town, equipping is a much better N0 action than stalking. The only reason I can see for stalking N0 is to murder N1.

[Magua]

Pardon my triple post here. I'm not saying I'm 100% sure that Mastin has an insanity -- though I will say that his gambit of faking an insanity is 100% town. All I'm saying is, *if* Mastin does have an insanity, it is because he stalked. If he stalked N0, he should be lynched. Trying to divine what insanity he might've gotten from stalking is, IMO, useless.

[Magua]

There are many other options to a Mastin lynch that will give us more information. It's all about maximising our knowledge while minimizing the time it takes us to get said knowledge. A Mastin lynch will do neither. A Mastin vig will cut down on the noise, helping us to actually catch scum instead of pointing fingers and going 'OMGSELFVOTEAGAINHEMUSTBESCUMLYNCHLYNCH'. A Mastin vig will, in short, maximize our gains and minimize our time in which we get them.

This is the first argument for not lynching Mastin I've seen that makes sense, actually. I'm not going to unvote Mastin yet, because I don't think that anyone so far has acted scummier than he has, but I agree 100% with the sentiments expressed.

[Magua]

One point about researching is that we should be able to spread the researching out amongst many investigators, while the cultists can't do so as well with submitting the name -- end result is that cultists should gain insanity faster than the investigators (if a cultist submits a name every other night, vs an investigator researching every four nights).

[Magua]

where do you get the figure of researching once every four nights?

I made it up as an example.

[Magua]

Did you not pay attention? It would be vastly better to use our lynch to get information, rather then just getting rid of some noise. Also, this looks a bit like bandwagoning.

What lynch would you suggest gives us the most information?

[Magua]

Pardon my triple post here. I'm not saying I'm 100% sure that Mastin has an insanity -- though I will say that his gambit of faking an insanity is 100% town. All I'm saying is, *if* Mastin does have an insanity, it is because he stalked. If he stalked N0, he should be lynched. Trying to divine what insanity he might've gotten from stalking is, IMO, useless.

This statement is almost all wrong. Faking insanity is not 100% town. And if he stalked, that does not mean he should be lynched. Stalking can be used for the equivalent of a 1-shot vig.

Yes, I meant 100%

anti

town, but didn't feel like making a quadruple post to fix what should've been the obvious intent. Stalking for a one-shot vig N0 seems pretty anti-town to me; claiming a faked insanity also seems completely anti-town to me.

[Magua]

Ok... so... I am acting scummy. Hmm....

Unvote

Vote: DeatNote

I had an IC in my newbie game here self vote. I didn't think it was a good strategy then, and I don't think it's a good strategy now. There is no reason that I can see in this game to ever self vote. I didn't like it when Mastin did it, and I don't like it when you do it.

[Magua]

Mod: What happens if:
(With > and < refering to murder attempts)
(On same night.)

Player A > Player B
Player B > Player A

Player A > Player B > Player C

Player A > Player B > Player C > Player A.

OP states that if you are murdered while murdering, your murder still goes through.

I'm fine with one person robbing the grave -- I think it's a wonderful idea -- and I've got no qualms against Zwet doing it. I do think Zwet should claim the insanity he's going to get.

I'm leaving my vote on Mastin for the time being. DeathNote seems newbie town to me, and Mastin, who made his big ta-da promising to end the RVS and start scumhunting, has yet to scumhunt at all. I'm not sold on a Mastin lynch -- I agree that he can get vigged easily enough -- I just have no one better to move it onto.

[Magua]

Mastin -- Mastin, Tuberkulos, sideney, EriktheRed, Magua, ZykeZero, Nyx, Cephrir, Seraphim, jasonT1981, DeathNote
DeathNote -- nhammen, dramonic, Tuberkulos, DeathNote, Datadanne, EriktheRed

lol... NOW the mod posts a votecount...

Anyways... on both wagons -- Tuberkulos, EriktheRed, DeathNote

I want to make sure I understand this -- these are the people who have placed a vote at any point today for either of these people, right? And Tuberkulos, ETR, and DN are the people who have voted both of them at some point?

[Magua]

How is Drench's plan distracting or anti-town? I actually found Drench's post on vigging Mastin to be quite well reasoned. Why do you think taking advantage of our one-shot vigs would be classified as antitown?

[Magua]

Unvote, Vote: Erikthered

You will have to give more reasoning then that.

Unvote: Mastin

Vote: Datadanne

Posts 445, 449, 470.

100% completely useless posts. If you've got a problem with what DeathNote has posted, explain it. Don't post asking for removal and then make us guess. You think that EtR didn't explain his vote on Zwet enough in post 466, so you vote him with a one line remark in 470? That's hypocrisy of a pretty high degree there.

Reviewing your posts, I see only three that are more than one line long. Two that mention how confused you are, and a youtube link. Hooray.

[Magua]

But why even take the risk?

I nominate Magua to rob the grave tonight, instead of zwet.

I'm also willing to do it myself if people aren't happy with Magua.

Out of curiosity, did you pick my name out of a hat? I'm fine with zwet robbing the grave. If he gets killed, well, then we can figure out someone to rob his grave the next day. It's not like the items are going anywhere, and the main intent -- revealing alignment -- gets done either way.

I'm not fond of this idea of yours of volunteering someone else to gain insanity.

On to other matters: Mastin is back. Allow me some time to control my joy. Let's see...he claims at least half the people voting for him are scum. His scum claim is a null tell because he does it every game. Perhaps I should start every game by voting for Mastin. Then that would become a null tell too, hmm? Oh, no, you've got another term for that -- policy lynch. How convenient.

The only vaguely useful pieces I see in that wall of text are:

* Says Drench gets bandwagoned for defending him.
* Posits a connection between Zwet and Zyke.

I am so far unimpressed with this gambit, and still think Mastin is scum. But I would rather read Mastin's walls than Datadanne's one liners.

[Magua]

Now we're getting somewhere.

Let me just stir the pot with my observations:

1) I support the vigging of Mastin, DeathNote, and Datadanne. I support the lynching of Datadanne at this point (which is where my vote is). Since the game relies on us being able to read the townies from the scum, if we can't read these people, then they could be scum as easily as town. I, for one, can't read any of them, so I find the entire block somewhat worrisome. I'm somewhat swayed by Drench's argument that they should be vigged instead of lynched for information reasons, but I don't have a better vote yet than Datadanne.

2) I don't understand why Sarag is so hot to trot about robbing the grave either. I don't see the equipment as that big of a deal, and I don't see his fear that Zwet will die tonight as likely.

[Magua]

@Mod: If the deadline hits without a majority on a player, does the player with the most votes on get lynched, or does it no lynch?

Thinking about the second night. The breakdown seems to be:

1) Zwet will rob the grave.
2) Anyone with a resuscitation kit who didn't hear noise last night should protect someone who did hear noise and wasn't warded.
3) Anyone with wards who didn't hear noise last night should ward someone else who didn't hear noise last night.

At this point, I am giving serious thought to stalking either Mastin or Datadanne. It strikes me as pretty antitown to do this, on the surface, but I believe that both of these are pretty antitown players to begin with, since it seems pretty difficult to read whether they're scum or not, and I don't see this status changing.

But I don't want to do anything too hasty, and want other people's input into this.

[Magua]

If any scum have a res kit, then your vig will only work if he is town, and will not work if he is scum. Not a good idea.

So if he doesn't die, he's scum and gets lynched. How does this not qualify as a good idea?

I'm quite serious here. I don't think town-Mastin or town-Datadanne are going to get killed by the scum, so they're only going away if they get lynched/murdered. EtR says to wait for them to scumslip, but when one of them claims scum as a regular occurrence, and the other one has a consistent posting length of one line, I don't see either of those happening. The fact that I can read more into Zwet than either of these two is deeply disturbing for me.

If we don't lynch them now, we'll have to deal with them *at some point*. If the only reason to not lynch them was that a lynch wouldn't provide us any information, and so they should be vigged, then I can buy that. But if they're not going to be vigged, then I really do believe they should be lynched.

[Magua]

NO FOOL

We already have one Datadanne.

[Magua]

Scum claims in the RVS-->Fine, 'specially from me.
Out of the RVS-->We need to get rid of this person soon. (Not necessarily a lynch, but he has to go for comments like that, even if people write it off as newbieness.)

Says the person who continues to fake insanity.

It occurred to me that the person robbing the grave should be someone we all think is town.
I propose the Robber system.
Like a bold.

Robbber: Zwet

would mean I'd support Zwet being the Robber chosen. If the mod agrees, a Robber count could be kept as well.

Do you disagree with Zwet robbing the grave? If so, say so. If not, why bother with this mechanic? TBH, as long as the grave gets robbed, I really don't care *who* did it. If they're town, great. If they're scum, great, because it means they're not crafting fetishes.

Data wagons are useless. I am rather familiar with his meta; he's worse than Zwet and Empking posting-wise, maybe worse than millar13, etc., regardless of alignment. (No offense intended, Data, just comparing you to other players.)

So do you support a Datadanne lynch? What about a Datadanne vig?

[Magua]

So, for the six people who haven't voted yet -- deadline's less than a week away. Care to take a stand?

[Magua]

If you don't give reasons for your votes, why should you expect other people to give reasons for their votes?

[Magua]

If you don't give reasons for your votes, why should you expect other people to give reasons for their votes?

Can you think of someone better to lynch? You made a call saying that we should put votes down. I did.

My vote says that Datadanne is a good lynch.

But, here's the important part: I didn't ask you about your *vote*. Although I think voting without explaining is pretty scummy, I called you out because you didn't explain *your* vote, but then you asked chenhsi to explain *his*.

Why the double standard? Why ask of others what you are not willing to give yourself?

[Magua]

I just gave my reason. I would rather have a lynch than a no-lynch.

Then I am missing this reason. Because all I see is you voting EtR, being questioned as to why, saying there's no reason and unvoting, he votes you, you vote him back.

If you could point out where you gave your reasoning, I would appreciate it.

[Magua]

Oddly enough, this makes me subscribe more to then "newbie town" theory for DeathNote, especially in comparison to Datadanne's "everyone on my wagon is scum, lynch them please" post in 706.

It's too bad that I don't feel it outweighs his "please explain what's going on" post in 704.

[Magua]

I have little to add before the lynch, except that I'm keeping my vote on Datadanne. I'm really kind of disappointed in all the people who posted over the last week "Catching up, will post soon" and then provided nothing.

I don't have incredibly high hopes for day 2 being any better, to be honest.

Also, getting annoyed by Zwet's plummet to one line posts.

[Magua]

Are we planning to stalk anyone in preparation of a vig tonight? How are we going to ward/resucitate? Who's robbing the grave (just to be clear)? Can we get all this info out in the open before deadline?

Speaking of which, there's approximately 19 hours until deadline. 18 hours and 40 minutes to be exact.

Zwet robs the grave. Those with res kits who didn't hear noise should res those who did. Those with wards who heard noise should ward those who didn't.

I don't think it's a good idea to come out and say "I'm going to ward X", because then the scum know that they can target that person with impunity (since if you ward, any other ward fails to protect you). Same with the res kits.

Since stalking is going to give you an insanity, if you're going to do it, I think it'd be best to claim it (and the insanity you're going to pick) now. I've flirted with the idea of stalking Datadanne, but the more I think about it, the more I want to see how this night plays out -- specifically, if there's more than one death.

[Magua]

Mod post, 736:

At this time, whoever has the majority of votes will be lynched. If there is a tie, whoever received their final vote first will be lynched.

[Magua]

Mod post, 736:

At this time, whoever has the majority of votes will be lynched.

If there is a tie, whoever received their final vote first will be lynched.

My emphasis.

I'm surprised, actually -- I thought there'd be a last minute flurry of posts and votes, but instead, it's been more of a whimper.

[Magua]

EriktheRed was a

Cultist

.

Hooray!

Mastin, found murdered,

Insanity Count: 0

.
zwetschenwasser, found murdered,

Insanity Count:

1

.
Tuberkulos, found murdered,

Insanity Count: 0

.
Drench, destoryed by an unspeakable being,

Insanity Count:

2

.

W....O....W. This means that (at least) three people stalked n0. I had expected one, *maybe* two. There could even be more, who were prevented by wards / res. This is troublesome.

Let's see.

We know EtR's alignment, and Zwet has one insanity, so his story checks out. Drench was pretty obviously town, both by being killed by the cult and having the two insanity pointing to n0-stalk and n1-murder -- I'd agree that Drench was very likely Mastin's killer. Which still leaves two deaths. Neither Mastin nor Zwet could've been a murderer.

I'm going to grasp at straws for a moment -- I'll go back and read the posts later when I have more time -- but wasn't there someone who was sure that zwet was going to be murdered and wanted someone else to rob the grave? I'm pretty confident there was.

In compiling the list:

I warded RestFermata.
I heard noise (but, I warded).

I am very curious if anyone got saved during the night.

[Magua]

I'm going to grasp at straws for a moment -- I'll go back and read the posts later when I have more time -- but wasn't there someone who was sure that zwet was going to be murdered and wanted someone else to rob the grave? I'm pretty confident there was.

This person was Sarag. However, nhammen claims to have researched Sarag last night and found 0 insanity, so Sarag could not have stalked n0, unless nhammen is lying.

I still feel that Sarag's behavior d1 is shady with regards to zwet dying that night. I'm pretty confident that Drench killed Mastin; however, I'm totally at a loss for who would've killed Tuberkulos.

[Magua]

Well, now, this is all interesting.

Rereading through d1, and all, here's where I stand:

Drench was town, Drench vigged Mastin. Since no one has claimed the vig on Zwet, and I can't see any town reason for killing Tuberkulos, I'm going to go ahead with neither of them being townies using their one shot vig, and both of them being murderers. This gives us at least two murderers running around.

Identification: Murderers are the only ones that, as of today, should have 2 insanity. I expect cult to have 0-1 insanity, as there's only been one killing. So researching is only useful for finding murderers, not for cult. If I'm reading the order of operations from the OP correctly, investigation kits are only useful for finding people who aren't bothering to launder -- this would seem to be murderers, again.

So it seems that we have two ways to catch murderers, and zero (mechanical) ways to catch cult. On the other hand, if both of the murderers are of the "win as quickly as possible" persuasion, we have four days to find them. After that, either one is alive and wins, or both are alive, and our chances of winning become very, very, very small (would have to hope for a cross kill to kill them all at the same time.)

So, my rundown of thoughts on people:
DeathNote: His story doesn't make sense and contradicts itself. I'm revising my opinion of him from d1 ("Newbie") to "Bad liar". He needs to go.

Datadanne: Still has to go. The only reasons to keep alive are that Datadanne can vig DeathNote, and that Knight of Cydonia can vig Datadanne.

Seraphim: Like Datadanne, but not as bad. On the other hand, no use in keeping him alive because he's not going to vig another target tonight.

Sarag: d1 discussion definitely paints him as someone planning on murdering Zwet. The fly in this ointment is nhammen researching him and finding no insanity, which would discount an n0 stalking. I can't come up with a scenario in which Sarag is a murderer and nhammen is a partner, so I'm chalking this up as truthful for now. The other part is that Sarag claims noise last night -- researching does not generate noise for the target, so someone must've targeted Sarag.

chenhsi: The end of d1 looks like an attempt to jump off of the Erik wagon at the last minute. That's suspicious.

nhammen: This is probably the only person I don't want to consider lynching today. Posts often, posts consistently useful and logical.

Kise: Claimed to receive a self fetish. This seems like a good cover for cultists to cover insanity they may have gained from the ritual. Honestly, I'm surprised there are no other self fetish claims -- if the cultists were going to cover their insanity with it, I'd expect a real claim and a fake claim. Just having one claim makes me think this is legit.

Largely useless: Nyx, Jebus, Seraphim, ZykeZero. None of these really stand out to me -- I've got no read on them one way or the other, which bothers me.

For today, I'm largely interested in lynching one of Nyx, Jebus, Serpahim, or Zykezero, and letting Datadanne and DeathNote get vigged.

[Magua]

I blame A.D.D. It's not as easy to go about the normal scumhunting practices since there is a lot of speculation with this game's set-up. This is more so a free-for-all between investigators and forensics people.

What does this mean? How does the game's setup make scumhunting difficult? And what do you mean by "forensics people"?

[Magua]

If Datadanne stalked DeathNote last night and kills him tonight, it clears Datadanne from being one of the two existing murderers, and very likely clears him from being cult (at least, for the time being).

So, instead, I'm going to

Vote: Jebus

until I have a reason not to. 1 post that says no noise, and 4 posts that say "reading up, will post opinions later".

[Magua]

This means that RestFermata was not a good target for Magua's warding, as he may already have been in danger that no further warding could prevent. One of the many people who actually heard no noise would have been far superior.

<expletive deleted>. I didn't even put this together until now. I messed up.

I picked who to ward based on reading the last five pages of d1; I wanted to ward someone who looked vaguely-but-not-too-protown, and she fit the bill. I crosschecked this with nhammen's noise list, saw that RestFermata's name wasn't in the "heard noise" list, and *totally* missed that she had replaced Exalt, who's name was on the list.

You're right that she was a terrible ward choice.

But your logic about me being cult crafting. Were I cult crafting a fetish, I would've just claimed to use a resuscitation kit on RestFermata if I were going for a cover. All the benefits, none of the drawbacks.

And I'll just get this out of the way: I've got zero insanity, so I'm not a murderer either.

On top of that, he was strangely reluctant to rob the grave when I suggested he do so. I didn't think much of it at the time because he'd been making helpful and pro-town seeming posts. But really, an Investigator should have no qualms about robbing the grave. Investigators do not have carefully laid plans that might get disrupted, only Cultists and Murderers do. Any rational, team-playing Investigator (and Magua has gone to pains to seem like both) would easily recognise that the grave must be robbed, and that the insanity gained by doing so cannot practically be avoided (by an individual yes, but not by the team).

You didn't suggest me, you volunteered me. And it seemed odd that you were determined for Zwet not to do it, for reasons I still do not entirely understand. If you follow your logic to its own conclusion, you want the most *antitown* player (the one most likely to be scum) to rob the grave.

@semioldguy: I understand it might be in Jebus' meta. This is why I included "until I have a reason not to". My real fear at this point in time is the lurkers I mentioned in 891 (Nyx, Jebus, Seraphim, ZykeZero). Seeing Jebus' post just spurred me into replying.

[Magua]

Annoyance at the sheer number of "rereading, will post" soon posts continues.

But, whatever.

Recap of d1:

- Talk about mechanics, very little individual-wise.
- Mastin shows up, claims cult-going-murderer, complains of non-existent RVS.
- Mastin wagon forms, vs the "It's his meta" antiwagon.
- DeathNote wagon forms based on scummy posts.
- ErikTheRed wagon forms based on vote analysis.
- Datadanne wagon forms based on useless posts.
- ErikTheRed and Zwet go back and forth.
- Talk about town utilizing one-shot vigs.
- ErikTheRed gets lynched.

Continuings of the wagons:
- Mastin got vigged / murdered.
- Datadanne claims to be murdering DeathNote tonight (n2). If so, Datadanne is cleared from being one of the murderers who killed n1, and chances of Datadanne being cult are low.

So none of the wagons from d1 are really viable for d2 at this point.

[Magua]

Also,

I will be V/LA from September 2nd through September 8th.

[Magua]

I'll go first

I have 2 insanities, taboo:launder and avolition

I am responsible for the death of Tuberkulos. My original intention was to kill Zwet, which I always have a very hard time reading, but he got replaced out by Tuberkulos (but he's dead anyways, yeah )

I'm suspicious -- in response to murdering someone, you took Taboo: Launder? This leaves you permanently bloody, which puts us at more risk of chaos...and is also a convenient insanity claim for a murderer.

But, I don't think you're cult. Still leaves Zwet's killer at large, though.

[Magua]

Let's do a little analysis

Case 1: I'm town and telling the truth, killing me is bad to the town and helps the cult win

Case 2: I'm lying and am murderer, killing me is null for the town and helps the cult win

Case 3: I'm lying and am cult, killing me helps the town. However my insanity count and bloodiness can be proven by investigation and research (especially considering I can't launder)

Case 2 is wrong -- if you're a murderer, killing you is *good* for the town (we can't win as long as you're alive, after all). But since you're claiming openly, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on this one for the time being. If you're a murderer, we have four more days to lynch you before you fulfill your wincon regardless, and the cult would want you dead as well.

Case 3 is pretty unlikely. If you're cult claiming murderer, either a) you're really a cult murderer, and the other cult will want to off you, or b) you're taking credit for a murder you didn't commit, which gives the real murderer incentive to kill you, as they know you're likely cult.

But we shouldn't lynch you today for the same reason that we shouldn't lynch Datadanne today, so I find it kind of ironic that Datadanne thinks we *should* lynch you.

I agree with semioldguy -- dramonic should rob the grave of our lynchee to prove that he's not doing something else with his night action.

[Magua]

ITT- dramonic wants to grave rob as an excuse for getting insanity.

If he's robbing the grave, he's not stalking nor killing. So that's fine if he's a murderer.

If he's cult, he's not crafting fetishes. Can still participate in the ritual, but little will stop that. And if he's grave robbing *and* participating in the ritual, he's getting double insanity.

So I'm not seeing the problem.

I'm leery of Dramonic (and of Datadanne, for that matter) -- picking Taboo: Launder when you kill / plan on killing someone seems like bad play to me, and Dramonic's reasoning for n1 vigging Tuberkulos, while it makes more sense than before, still doesn't seem like the best play (killing someone because they *replaced* Zwet?)

But, openly claiming at this point gives them a lot of cred, pretty much because it makes them both targets -- for the cultists and the murderers. I won't say I don't find them scummy (I do), but logic argues against their lynchings today. Dramonic can be lynched tomorrow if the grave isn't robbed; Datadanne can be lynched tomorrow if DeathNote doesn't die.

[Magua]

Back from vacation. Apparently, I should go on vacation more often, 'cause that was a useful five days...

Due to my hatred of "here, rereading" posts, I have actually reread first, and am posting.

Players with unclaimed insanity counts:
chensi
JamesBond
Jebus
Magua
RestFermata
Seraphim (being replaced)
sykedoc

I have already claimed 0 insanity.

Supposing medical kit is referring to ressucitation, our mod has made a mistake, since I already have a kit in my pockets.

I remembered reading this before I left, and now I come back and see that you are stating you actually don't have a res kit anymore...but there's no mention of a moderator update or clarification. Can you expound on this change?

But, really, I want to talk about KoC. I'm very, very curious about his post, because, no matter how I look at it, it doesn't look like good play. Consider:

1) Town. Bad play.
2) Murderer. Even if joint wins were allowed, bad play. Murderers can't win unless they are the last murderer left. So his plan for a joint win wouldn't work as long as other murderers existed...which is highly likely.
3) Traitor. As stated, with one insanity, he couldn't've both stalked Datadanne and participated in the ritual, so one or the other must be false. Since cultists can ritual other cultists without a fetish, his asking to be warded seems odd. Combines with the problems from 2, as well.
4) Cult. Bad play. Graverobbing would reveal pretty soon if he was giving good info or bad. With a 25% cult base and the EtR lynch d1, cult doesn't seem to be in a position to swap even two bad lynches for one cult lynch.

It's the naming of Mastin and Zwet as cult that bothers me. It's easily verifiable -- if it's true, then we know that 4 cult are dead, which would be *great* (4 because KoC would have to have been cult to know this regardless). If it's false, it's cost us two night actions and two town insanities, but then we would lynch KoC even if he hadn't've been modkilled, which would be a great trade.

Also consider:

I have checked with the mod, and this is indeed true. A murderer can win, THEN the town can win.

We know from the mod that this is false. Hell, we know it from the investigator PM.

My working theory is that KoC misread or misunderstood one (or more) of the rules, probably about the murderer's win condition. He gambitted at *something*, and he failed.

Being town doesn't make sense. Being murderer doesn't make sense because KoC wouldn't be able to follow through on his promise of giving up the cult. I think that KoC *had* to be cult or traitor -- he was either genuine in his offer and misread some of the rules, or he was cult trying to make the town waste lynches in exchange for his life. Doesn't mean that his information is legitimate (cult would have reason to lie, traitor not so much), but either way it seems to me like we've got *at least* two cult (EtR and KoC) down.

I think it's worth setting up a situation for Dramonic to fake hammer to test his Avolition, but if Dramonic is lying about an insanity, it's almost certainly the Taboo and not the Avolition. Still, doesn't cost us anything to verify.

My vote stays on Jebus, who still hasn't posted, but, unless I miss something, hasn't been prodded either, which suggests active lurking to me. I am amenable to a chenhsi, Nyx, or ZykeZero lynch as well.

[Magua]

@Magua: what exactly do you mean by traitor? the only roles in this gane are investigator-cult-murderer, so what is a traitor?
Also, I replaced Nyx a long time ago. So please clarify if you a) missed this, or b) meant that you'd be ok with lynching me.

I use traitor to signify cult-turned-murderer (due to the text of the murderer PM from the OP).

And, yes, I missed that Nyx was replaced. I'm not doing too good with keeping up with the replacements, and it's really starting to irritate me. Going through the list from the OP, I'm good with lynching:

Jebus
JamesBond
Pablo Molinero
ZykeZero
chenhsi

[Magua]

Going through the list from the OP, I'm good with lynching:

Jebus
JamesBond
Pablo Molinero
ZykeZero
chenhsi

What is it you find suspicious about each of these players?

The first four are people who have posted little to nothing in the last three weeks. chenhsi is different, in that he posts, but what he posts seems to be pretty wishy washy -- never a strong opinion, never a new insight. I have this same feeling about DeathNote and Datadanne, but that problem is resolving itself tonight.

In addition, chenhsi's defense since the wagon has started on him has been kind of weak. Very much "why me?", which I find to be scummy, and very little "Here's why it should be someone else."

[Magua]

As for the dead line or the lynch I think we can do better. We can find someone to lynch, we should take this next day to go back, double check our theories and pick the strongest candidate. The sooner we can get a result the sooner we can start applying theory to practice.

If you think we can do better, give a better case. This is the equivalent of saying "I'm here, rereading." It seems like you want to derail the (I assume chenhsi) wagon without having any idea what to replace it with. That's warning bells.

[Magua]

Wow. Big huge bandwagon. I'm a little surprised. And I don't like a DeathNote lynch today if he's going to be killed tonight. It's a waste of a lynch, and I'm also disturbed at everyone who either:
1) agreed it was a waste of a lynch, and is now agreeing it's a great lynch, or
2) doesn't care enough and will just follow along either way.

But, first, let me get this out of the way: DeathNote should die. I do not disagree with this at all. What I disagree with is using our lynch to do this, when we have a claimed stalk on him who can do it tonight, freeing us up to lynch someone else.

"But," I read, "What if DeathNote doesn't die tonight?"

This is a fine question, but the answers seem obvious. If DeathNote doesn't die tonight, it's for one of the following reasons:

1) Someone resuscitated him. This is great. This means an antitown faction (either cult or murderer) used up *two* actions (the equip and the resuscitate), and got bloody. If they were a cult, that's two fetishes not being crafted. If they were murderer, that's a person not stalked or killed.
2) Datadanne doesn't kill him. This is great. This means that Datadanne is confirmed antitown.

On the other hand, if DeathNote *does* die, Datadanne is cleared of being one of the n1 murderers, and is pretty clear of being cult. And, we got to lynch someone else.

So I see no reason why this is not the plan:

1) Lynch someone who is scummy, but is not Datadanne or DeathNote. I like Jebus, although I'm liking Pablo a lot more now, too.
2) If DeathNote dies during the night, the plan worked.
3) If DeathNote *doesn't* die during the night, lynch Datadanne, and then lynch DeathNote.

Finally, before the objections of "Datadanne could be a murderer": If DeathNote dies tonight, we know for sure Datadanne is not one of the n1 murderers, so could only be 1/3 of the way to the goal. As is the same case with Dramonic, we have plenty of time to watch/research and see if their insanity is skyrocketing.

If we *do* lynch DeathNote today, we get no information about Datadanne, and chances are, we're going to end up lynching Datadanne tomorrow. The DN lynch takes away information that we would otherwise have. That is why I'm against it.

[Magua]

Why is this the order that you suggest... And why are you suggesting two quicklynches in a row. Why isn't your plan one of:
lynch Datadanne, and if he flips town, then lynch DeathNote
lynch DeathNote, and if he flips town, then lynch Datadanne

The order is the order I suggested because, in my estimation, if DN is not dead tomorrow, it is more likely that Datadanne didn't kill than that DN was resuscitated.

I wasn't suggesting any quicklynches. I was outlining why lynching DN or Datadanne today was a bad plan.

You have just flown waaaay up my scummeter. *twitch*

Given the last two pages of posts, you're either abusing hyperbole or tunneling.

[Magua]

It is a waste of resources to lynch someone we are not sure about, and leave the primary target to be lynched tomorrow.

It is a waste of resources to waste 3 townie night actions stalking, murdering and laundering when your best case scenario is the death of a townie, and your worst case scenario is no kill, no useful information. Datadanne, if he's still on our team, could be using those night actions to provide useful data from investigations.

The best-case scenario for lynching DN today is that he's scum. If he is scum, and he's vigged instead of lynched, he gets an extra night action. I argue that that night action is not that terrible.

1) If he's a murderer who killed n1, he can't kill tonight.
2) If he's a cultist, he can't craft and pass a fetish in the same night, so the thing to fear would be using a fetish he already had to do the kill. This saves the cult exactly one action (having to recraft that fetish).

On the other hand, if DN is town, it is preferable to vig him than lynch him, because we get to use our lynch elsewhere.

Furthermore, if DN dies from vigging, then we're sure that Datadanne isn't cult. Could be murderer, true, but since we know there's an n1 murderer out there, that murderer would be incentivized to kill Datadanne *anyways*, and much like with dramonic, a suspected murderer is easier to watch/direct actions of -- making Datadanne rob the grave afterwards would be an easy, verifiable way of ensuring that there's not a stalk.

So all of the hooplah seems to come from "What happens if DN doesn't die?" Either...

1) Datadanne didn't commit the kill, or
2) DN was resuscitated. If he's resuscitated, who did it?
a) A murderer? Not possible. Being bloody destroys a res kit. No one who murdered n1 will have a res kit.
b) A cultist? Then the cult wasted two actions (equip and res) that wasn't spent crafting fetishes...in order to gain one or two actions.

You are advocating leaving him alive, because your plan will not kill him unless he is innocent and Datadanne is also innocent. I don't know if I can simplify that any further. It is closer to a comedy routine than a plan.

No, the plan will almost certainly kill him, unless Datadanne is lying. No murderer can save him, and cult saving him costs the cult more than keeping him alive gives them. Your entire argument seems to be based off of the idea that if he is scum, he *will* be resuscitated, and I'm just not seeing it.

Also, sadly,

I will be V/LA until Monday, the 21st.

Sorry for the last minute notice.

[Magua]

Datadanne killing DeathNote is not a town approved kill, it is a Datadanne approved kill. Don't delude yourselves, guys. Sanctioning vigs is anti-town because:

1 - Targeted cultists can counter it.

Again, I don't want to keep reiterating points: they spend two of their night actions (equip, res), we lynch the vig claim, grave rob them, and when they flip as non-cult, we lynch the target. What did the cult gain? Two night actions. What did they spend? Two night actions.

(@nhammen: A simplified example, not a call for quicklynches.)

2 - It gives cover to murderers.

By outing them to the town

and to other murderers

. Look at dramonic. I am not worried about kills that are accounted for. I am worried about kills that are not.

3 - The information it gives townies is subject to cult control.

The *important* information it gives to the town -- that is, the person claiming the kill is not cult -- is not subject to cult control.

4 - It is most likely to succeed against townies.

If the person is a townie, it is better to vig them than lynch them.

5 - It wastes townie night actions, and makes it harder for other townies to detect scum.

If the target is town, it is better to waste a night action than a lynch.

@ chenhsi, nhammen, Magua: Please don't use statements like "I disilke players engaging in X behaviour". You need to talk about specific players or your statements are utterly useless. If you need me to point out where you did this, I can.

The only statements I've made that fit that description are "I dislike people posting 'rereading, post later' posts", in which case the specific people I was talking about were on the page where I made the post, and the most specific person is Jebus, who I'm still voting.

[Magua]

Your argument is based off the idea that we'll get better results from killing lots of people fast than killing fewer people carefully. But given the rules set-up here, lots of fast kills breeds lots of murderers, while taking our time can provide the town with mountains of investigatory evidence.

No, my argument is that we get more information from a vig than from a lynch. I heartily endorse people publicly claiming their vig, and I do so for the following reasons:

1) It shrinks the pool of suspects for any non-claimed killing (we know, for instance, that dramonic is clear of killing Zwet n1 because he killed Tuberkulos)
2) Careful use of who robs the grave can ensure that they cannot kill again -- since stalks must immediately precede kills, if someone robs the grave every other night, we are guaranteed that they are not killing.
3) We 99.5% know that they are not cult

In effect, a claimed vig who robs the grave every other night is the closest thing to a clear we'll ever get.

Forget the personalities involved for a moment, and explain to me why - even if this joke of a plan works, you think 2 kills tonight is better than one?

This one's easy. From a purely mathematical standpoint, the more unsychronized kills there are at night, the better off town is. Texas Justice shows this pretty well; I think it's obvious the reason the Chaos rule is in this game is to prevent a Texas Justice-style mass vigging from breaking the game.

That said, it is not that I think 2 kills is better than one, it's that I think a town-directed kill and a scum-directed kill is better than a scum-directed kill alone. It is, in effect, another lynch. The more town-directed kills there are, the better, IMO. Again, Texas Justice.

[Magua]

I heard noise last night.

I researched Pablo Molinero, who has no insanities. For my insanity, I took Distraction, since it fit easily with my voting style anyways.
Reading through, my thoughts:

1) Dramonic needs to go, whenever we're ready. Asks whose grave to rob in 1059, says he's robbing a grave in 1080. I bet $20 he flips with 3 insanities.

2) Chenshi claims in 1124 that he has one insanity; when he gets lynched, he flips with two. Lying about this during the day when he's about to get lynched anyways equates to either murderer or cult. I'm really curious as to which, because rereading his interactions could prove to be very interesting if he flips cult. If he is murderer, then he would be zwet's killer.

3) DeathNote flips with two insanity. Unlike chenhsi, could've gotten one n3; if DeathNote is a murderer, it's likely he killed nhammen. If both DeathNote and chenhsi flip murderer, then it's possible we don't have any more.

4) Mastin flips cult. I feel so vindicated about my d1 lynch choice. So I was going through and rereading, and in his second post, we have this:

On a side note,
Hai Cephrir!
Hai Erik!
Hai Santos!
Hai Datadanne!
Hai Kise!

Did I mention that at least half of my cult buddies are within the above group? Yea, they are. Razz

Cephrir was replaced by Knight of Cydonia. I'm 99% sure that KoC was cult, both for the reasoning I presented d2, and by the fact that he had no items in his grave.

Erik was cult.

Santos got replaced by zwetschenwasser, and is probably not cult.

Datadanne I'm 99% sure is not cult.

Which leaves Kise. Perhaps it's all Mastin WIFOM, but after rereading Kise in iso, I'm more suspicious of Kise than I was d2. Not as suspicious of Kise as I am of Jebus, who seems to be actively lurking.

I'm working under the assumption that there were 6 cult, and that 3 are dead, giving us a group of 3 remaining, less if DeathNote or chenhsi were cult themselves.

Chances of a resuscitate on the cult kill seems unlikely at this point: both the resuscitater and the resuscitatee would have to be amongst those who haven't claimed yet. Looking over the actions, I'm inclined to believe that the ritual was disrupted due to research -- this would make sense if there were three cultists, and only one submitted a name.

@Cass:

I'd like to know who you don't have an aversion to. The mod has said it's ok to list all the players you don't have an aversion to -- you can see SlySly do this in post 1013.

[Magua]

You know, you seriously have no reason to kill me. If I'm a murderer, scum will kill me N6. If I'm town, my survival is optimal to the town's win, if I'm scum I've somehow managed to break the rules.

You stalked last night. You will kill tonight. We have *every* reason to lynch you.

[Magua]

under what precept can you assume I didn't stalk scum? (Obviously, I'm a murderer XP)

A little something I like to refer to as "probability"

[Magua]

dramonic fished for Cass' equipment pretty blatantly, but I didn't see Sajin fish for Kise's.

@Magua- Jebus has requested replacement. He's no longer actively lurking. Kise is though, and I think you might be on to something there.

He's not listed as requesting replacement in the OP (unlike sykedoc or JamesBond). That's why I singled him out. Where do you get that he's being replaced?

As for grave robbing: To ensure non-stalking tonight, Datadanne should rob one of the graves. I will also volunteer to rob one of the graves. Counting dramonic as the lynch, we've got six to choose from:

zwetschenwasser
Drench
chenhsi
DeathNote
nhammen
dramonic

Of those, I think chenhsi and DeathNote are the most important to rob. I'm not sure if it's important to worry about the others -- dramonic will flip murderer, zwet and nhammen will likely flip town, and Drench will flip town or murderer.

[Magua]

Ok, *now* I see that Jebus has requested replacement.

As far as I can tell, we're only waiting on the people being replaced before lynching dramonic?

[Magua]

You know, instead of hammering a murderer who can't win before N6 and who can be monitored throughout the game you guys ought to focus on catching scum <_<

This was the plan -- to keep you alive but monitored. You didn't follow the plan. Ergo, you die.

Also, the ^ are people who have requested replacement, as per the OP.

@Kise:

Why did you take no action n1?

[Magua]

Sajin, Would you please vote dramonic?

*Twitches*

We don't want to end the day until we hear from sykedoc, Jebus, and JamesBond, or their replacements.

[Magua]

I heard no noise. Since I robbed chenhsi's grave, I now have two insanities. I need to wait 'till Tuesday when I've got access to my spreadsheet (it's at work) to organize coherent theories, but I have a really hard time believing that there are any murderers left. I also am pretty certain that Pablo is legit from my n1 research, which would make semioldguy legit by association.

[Magua]

Magua is done flaking.

Since I've got a hatred of "here, rereading" posts, I took the liberty of actual rereading before posting. Thoughts:

#1. My spreadsheet skills suck. Twice I thought I found a discrepancy in claims, and twice when I doublechecked the referenced posts, realized I had entered incorrect data.

#2: Slysly asks me to explain why I think semioldguy is cleared. To explain this, I have to explain why I think there's only one anti-town faction left.

a. Who has been murdered?
i. Tuberkulos (murdered n1 by dramonic, deceased)
ii. Mastin (murdered n1, probably by Drench, deceased)
iii. zwetschenwasser (murdered n1)
iv. DeathNote (murdered n2 by datadanne)
v. nhammen (murdered n2)

Who are the murderers?
i. Drench, ritualed d1 probably murdered (Mastin n1)
i. Knight of Cydonia, modkilled d2 (could not have murdered anyone, 1 insanity)
ii. chenhsi, lynched d2
iii. DeathNote, murdered n2
iv. Dramonic, lynched d3 (murdered Tuberkulos n1)

Now, Drench murdering Mastin *is* an assumption, but given d1 interaction and the fact that Drench died with two insanity, it seems a safe one.

So that leaves two murderers with 2+ insanity, and two people who were murdered. I am willing to conclude that chenhsi murdered zwetschenwasser, and that DeathNote murdered nhammen. I have no proof for these, but it matches up.

So, what about other murderers? There's fifteen of us now, so if a murderer had to start from scratch, assuming one lynch a day and a kill every night (one from the murderer, one from the cult), the murderer would win just before 3-way lylo. This is assuming that the murderer's targets are never warded, never resuscitated, that the murderer doesn't launder, isn't called upon to rob graves, etc. *Any* of those things occurring means that a murderer can't win, really.

Datadanne could be a murderer requiring only two more kills; alternatively, there may be other murderers who "piggybacked" on a kill (this could be possible with zwetschenwasser). The problem with this theory is that there simply aren't that many people who an insanity claim of 2+, and once you subtract out easily verifiable grave robbing, *no one* aside from Datadanne could have stalked and murdered.

So I do not believe any piggybacking went on, *unless* someone is lying about their insanity. If they're lying about their insanity, research should pick it up, so it's a big gamble that they'd be able to go 3-4 more days without anyone picking up on the disconnect.

I'm not buying it.

Therefore, I think that either there's cult left *or* murderer left, or perhaps cult turned murderer. Either way, an attempted kill from the antitown faction would be equivalent to clearing.

tl;dr:
1) If semioldguy was not actually resuscitated, that makes cult semioldguy + Pablo + Sajin. This would be an "all the eggs in one basket" type thing; the part that doesn't fit would be Sajin's late claim to have resuscitated semioldguy in 1563 -- if they were all in cahoots together, there'd be no reason for him to do that.
2) If semioldguy were actually resuscitated, I believe he's clear. The only thing that'll cause me to reevaluate this is if we subsequently see *both* ritual killings and murders.
3) If semioldguy were actually resuscitated, at least one of Pablo + Sajin are clear.

Due to my chosen insanities, I shan't vote at the moment, but I'll outline my FoSes and my anti-FoSes:

FoS:
Kise - general uselessness
Looker - same, plus scummy reports. However, I don't see claiming a bloody result on someone else to be a scummove or murderer move; it's too dicey. So I'm willing to let Looker slide for today.
Sajin: Sajin's late claim of saving semioldguy seems too...convenient...an excuse to not have to have equipment, and to have blood. Pablo claimed the save two days before Sajin, and Pablo likewise confirms it before Sajin claims.
Chaco: Increase in posting from Jebus is good, getting a verified insanity researched would be great. Until that time, suspicious.

Anti-FoSes:
semioldguy: As explained above.
Pablo Molinero: As a group, I believe that (at least) one of Pablo + Sajin has to be townie, unless it turns out to be semioldguy + Sajin + Pablo as cult. Of the two, I trust Pablo due to my research than I trust Sajin.

Randoms:
Slysly: His predecessor stalked zwetschenwasser either n0 or n1 (as per post 1679). Need some way of proving that the insanity taken was Aversion, and not, say, Psychopathy. Still, assuming the 1 insanity claim is legit, not a murderer. Generally argumentative, seems to try to sow doubt. May just be overly cautious townie.
CSL: No noise or insanity claim that I saw.
Furpants_Tom: No noise or insanity claim that I saw.
Nachomamma: Quick to vote me for flaking, when there are those who've flaked longer (CSL, for instance).

I would like to lynch Kise today.
I would like Pablo to research either Nachomamma or Chaco tonight to validate their 0-insanity claims.

[Magua]

@ Sarag: I'm not looking to lynch looker, I'm just applying some pressure. If looker gets too close to L-1, I'm unvoting.

Saying a vote is a pressure vote negates any pressure, IMO.

Do investigations work like wards? So I couldn't investigate tonight, if I was going to be investigated so it would go through? Or what?

Investigations are independent. You can investigate someone while you yourself are being investigated without any problem.

Magua, do you want Pablo in particular to researchone of those two or anyone?"

I'm not trying to boss Pablo around; I'm just pointing out that he's the only one I trust who can verify that one of those two does indeed only have 0 insanity.

The other option would be to get them to gain insanity in some verifiable form (that is, grave robbing).

Do you think KoC was being truthful before he got himself booted?

Let's recheck what KoC said:

I have checked with the mod, and this is indeed true. A murderer can win, THEN the town can win.
I am a Murderer. I gained the insanity from running the Ritual on Drench last night. That's right, I'm an ex-cult Murderer. I will give the town the remaining cult members, then simply no-lynch, keep me alive with res-kits/wards (which I think you can alternate on me each night), let me kill 1 townie, and then the 2 remaining cult(zwet and Mastin were cultists, btw), and both I and the town win.
What say you?

Known facts:
* KoC *was* a murderer.
* Zwetschenwasser *was* a cultist.
* Mastin *was* a cultist.

So, yes, I think he was being truthful, and was mistaken about the murderer win condition.

Actually, rereading this, I think what happened was that KoC received his PM d2, saw that in addition to his bussing of his buddy d1, two of his partners had been killed n1, and decided that it would be easier to win as a murderer than as a cultist.

In general:

I would very much like Looker to PM the mod about his bloody state, and get back to us. If he's bloody, I think he should be lynched. If he's not bloody, I think semioldguy's plan of having him rob the grave tonight and someone investigating him is a good plan.

I'm not too quick to dismiss the bandwagon as scummy, though -- so far, our bandwagons have given us a cultist (EriktheRed), a murderer (chenhsi), and a murderer (dramonic).

[Magua]

Cool. Magua is back.

What you so happy about? He is wanting to lynch you!

You're just jealous. =P

Everything else he said was true, what do you think about this part?

After pondering it for a bit, I think it's true. Everything else was true. Going on the basis that he honestly believed what he was doing could win him the game, it reasonably follows that this is true as well. Were it three cult, he wouldn't say "kill 1 townie", he would just say "the cult".

I'll take that back. I could see it being KoC and a single other cult; that would make more sense for switching to murderer.

Going by the OP, cult was roughly 25% of the starting town, which gives us 6.25. Have to figure either 6 or 7 cult. Starting with 6, 3 cult deaths + KoC as cult does give us two cult remaining. Starting with 7 instead of 6 is entirely possible, but seems less likely: KoC's phrasing, and the modkill lead me to believe that he was trying to win, and that this isn't a massive WIFOM. Starting with 5 also a possibility, given the lack of good detection or information capabilities, but...meh. I'm more inclined to believe he was being truthful.

[Magua]

According to your own words, you agreed with voting Looker, were not on the wagon only due to your insanity, gave him a HoS, and barring a miracle were ready to move your vote to Looker and keep it there. You were helping the "easy" wagon along but are now trying to cast suspicion on those who were actually voting him and applying pressure. No way around it, that is scummy.

Surprisingly enough, I agree with this. semioldguy's about-face is scummy.

I am ready to support a lynch of either of these players. Obviously, I didn't find the good reasoning in Magua's post as to why semi is cleared. The bottom line is, semi is not clear.

I never said semi was clear. There's no "clear" in this setup. I said that I trusted him. You don't have my research results, so I don't expect you to trust like I do. Point of fact is, I know that d2, Pablo had 0 insanity. Chance of Pablo being murderer is nil, chance of Pablo being cult is very, very low. Pablo says he saved semi.

Now, let's assume that I'm right about there being only one antitown faction. The *only* -- and I stress *only* -- case where Pablo would be lying about this that I can see is if Pablo and semi are both cult. But Sajin claims to have saved semi too. So that would mean it would have to be Pablo + Sajin + semioldguy. And if you're going to throw me into the mix, well, that makes too much cult. We can't all be in it together.

If there are still two anti-town factions, things get dicier, of course, but until I see evidence of that, I'm assuming that most of us are smart enough to count the dead cult and realize that being town is better than being murderer.

Magua perusing the thread and choosing not to post when I clearly left him something to comment on has strengthened my suspicion on him. I no longer think his absence was accidental. I find it far more likely to be the lurking of scum. Convenient to come back near the deadline to help clear his buddy and cast suspicion on innocent investigators. In Magua's own words, "I'm not buying it."

Enlighten me as to this hypothesis.

I come back to "clear his buddy". First, I had stated my trust of semioldguy before I left. Second, when I came back, there was 1 vote on semioldguy. That vote was by Kise, who has claimed Avolition.

I come back to "cast suspicion on innocent investigators". When I came back, there's 5 votes on Looker, and offers to hammer when it's closer to deadline. I then express disapproval of this wagon.

Of course, that's an interesting choice of words right there: "innocent investigators". The person I want to lynch today is Kise. Why do you label Kise an "innocent investigator"?

[Magua]

I could see it being KoC and a single other cult; that would make more sense for switching to murderer.

I don't see it that way.

I didn't say I saw it that way. I said I *could* see it that way. If you read my response (1751), I say I do believe that there are two cult left.

Now, let's assume that I'm right about there being only one antitown faction.

I'm gonna assume there are at least 2, if not more (2 cult/traitor + ?# murder(s)), because of what KoC said upon his exit. Everything else he said he been proven to be true.

Again, you misread. I didn't say 1 antitown *person*, I said 1 antitown *faction*.

I don't necessarily label Kise an innocent investigator

But you *did* label him an innocent investigator. Which other lynch do you see me pushing?

And yes, my pushing for Kise's lynch is for "general uselessness". You want more specifics?

1) Contentless posts.
2) Claims of "no action" n1, along with "receiving a fetish", are great claims for scum to hide behind, as they don't have to fake results, and it's a cover for an insanity.
3) Complains about inability to scumhunt and how the game is ruled by people who understand the rules. Makes no attempts to scumhunt *or* understand the rules. Then goes on to vote people without rationale (JamesBond vote).

Whereas your case against me is that I trust semioldguy based off of my research results + the assumption that there's only one antitown faction remaining. There was no wagon on semioldguy to derail; I didn't join semioldguy on a wagon. If we get evidence that there is another antitown faction still around, I'll reconsider my trust. TBH, I'm surprised so many people turned murderer; I just can't believe there'd be more out there.

But no matter what, semioldguy *was* saved. I certainly trust him more than I trust, for instance, you.

Let's see. Other stuff:

CSL: Reaction testing by doing scummy things, and then when people call you on it, saying, "Ah ha, you must be scum going after an easy target" seems like a stupid plan. I didn't like it when Mastin claimed that d1, and that was before he flipped scum.

semioldguy: Should launder. Being bloody is a good cover. Both Datadanne and Dramonic claimed Taboo: Launder -- seems a very convenient claim for a killer. Dramonic flipped murderer. The only reason I'm good with not lynching Datadanne is robbing a grave every other night provides verifiability of non-murderer status.

Looker: Hasn't responded back with verification from the mod about whether he's bloody or not.

Insanity Counts: The insanity counts I'm most curious about are Chaco and Nachomamma, who both claim 0 insanity. That's easily verifiable by Pablo. I'm also suspicious of those counts (along with Kise's) because of the claims of no action on certain nights.

[Magua]

I didn't say I saw it that way. I said I *could* see it that way. If you read my response (1751), I say I do believe that there are two cult left.

First you said you believe it, then you said you took it back, then it kind of seemed like you believed it again, but I wasn't sure exactly what you meant.

Show me where I said I believed it. Here, I'll quote me:

After pondering it for a bit, I think it's true. Everything else was true. Going on the basis that he honestly believed what he was doing could win him the game, it reasonably follows that this is true as well. Were it three cult, he wouldn't say "kill 1 townie", he would just say "the cult".

I'll take that back. I could see it being KoC and a single other cult; that would make more sense for switching to murderer.

Going by the OP, cult was roughly 25% of the starting town, which gives us 6.25. Have to figure either 6 or 7 cult. Starting with 6, 3 cult deaths + KoC as cult does give us two cult remaining. Starting with 7 instead of 6 is entirely possible, but seems less likely: KoC's phrasing, and the modkill lead me to believe that he was trying to win, and that this isn't a massive WIFOM. Starting with 5 also a possibility, given the lack of good detection or information capabilities, but...meh. I'm more inclined to believe he was being truthful.

Let's read, shall we?

Paragraph 1: "Yes, I think he was truthful. There's no situation I could see where lying would help him."

Paragraph 2: "Oh, wait. I thought of a situation where he *could* be lying."

Paragraph 3: "But I do not think he was lying."

Questions?

It was part of my grand summation sentence in my moment of clarity. I didn't point out any specific person that I was referring to.

Fine. I've put my balls out on the wall and stated my opinions. Your turn. Who do *you* trust? If you think semioldguy and I are the cult (which is humorous), then you trust Kise? Sarag? Sajin? CSL?

And let's head off the "I trust no one" response. I'm not asking who you would slavishly follow to the ends of the earth; I'm asking who you think is legit.

Noted. That's better than your original case. I don't think there is much to worry about with Kise, he is L-1 for lynching himself.

At the beginning of the game, I thought to myself, "Twitchy doesn't seem that bad; I'll take that if I have to take an insanity." Then I saw Kise d1.

Yeah, I can't believe it either, but that many did. Honestly I would be greatly surprised if there aren't more murderers left at this point. How many other games can you join and switch alignments by your own choice? Maybe everyone has been waiting their entire MS life to be an SK and this game has given them that chance. I am not going to turn murderer, if I was going to, I would have just not changed my predecessor's choice.

I simply expect the number of unexplained noise claims to be higher if there were murderers about.

So what? Him being saved in no way clears him.

It clears him from being in at least one antitown faction. If there is only one antitown faction, that *does* clear him. If I see that there are still two antitown factions, I shall reconsider. Until then, no.

Oh please, let's hear your case against me. I have 1 insanity that my predecessor caused. I protected someone I believed to be an investigator last night and have already offered to rob the grave of the town's choosing tonight. This little statement of yours might be your scummiest yet. Framing obvtown is scum's work.

My god, you're defensive. How in your world does "I don't trust you" correspond to "You're scum"?

[Magua]

No lynch support a head burying move to you?

Not quite sure I follow - but CSL, Looker, Magua and semi are all non-voters; so I'm not sure it's useful for differentiating between them.

1) Not voting does not mean no lynch. The rules clearly state that at deadline, the person with the most votes will be lynched.

2) I took Sadism, so there is no one I can vote without getting an insanity infraction.

[Magua]

Geez, people. Look at the vote count. Is anyone voting for a No Lynch?

Datadanne has been *exceedingly* scummy to me; go back to d1 and I push for that wagon.

However, Datadanne has an accounted for murder (DeathNote). This makes Datadanne a bad lynch.

Why?

Consider the situations where Datadanne is a good lynch:

1) Datadanne was cult. If Datadanne was cult, then to kill DeathNote, Datadanne had to go traitor, and the other cult know it. So, the other cult must kill Datadanne to win, and have every incentive to do so.

2) Datadanne is a murderer. This would put Datadanne at 1/3 of the way to a murderer win. However, Datadanne robbed dramonic's grave last night, so could not have stalked -- 100% verifiable. If Datadanne strays from the plan of robbing a grave every other night, Datadanne gets lynched just like dramonic got lynched. In the meantime, if there *are* any murderers, they have to suspect that they have to kill Datadanne to win as well.

So, to sum up: Datadanne is deadweight, but not a good lynch. If Pablo comes back and gives a 0 insanity read on Chaco or Nachomamma tomorrow, I'll hold the same opinion about them.

[Magua]

Magua, it is interesting that the two reasons you have put forth to not lynch someone voting No Lynch requires the existence of 2 anti-town factions and you have already stated that you don't believe that there are 2 anti-town factions left.

My reasons for not voting Datadanne do not require there to be only one antitown faction. I even address this *IN THE POST*.

Datadanne cannot be cult (cult cannot murder).
If Datadanne robs a grave every other night, Datadanne cannot win as traitor/murderer.
If Datadanne doesn't rob a grave every other night, it will be obvious and Datadanne will be lynched.
In the meantime, any other antitown faction has incentive to nightkill Datadanne.

Are you purposefully misrepresenting what you read, or is it just accidental?

[Magua]

Magua, there is no misrep:

You said you believe what Koc said, which means you believe there are cult left. You have said you believe there is only 1 anti-town faction left which means since you believe there is cult left, you must believe there are no murders left.

Correct. I believe there are no murderers left. *NOWHERE* did I state I believed there are murderers left. Go quote me. I'll wait.

Your reasons for not voting the No Lyncher were:
1. No Lyncher is former cult turned murderer and the remaining cult would want to kill that some one. That = 2 factions.
2. No Lyncher is a murderer. You already stated you believe there are cult left. That = 2 factions.

Again, go, quote me. Those are the *worst case* scenarios where Datadanne is antitown. If there is no benefit in lynching Datadanne in the worst case scenario, it follows there is no benefit to lynching in a non-worst-case scenario.

I'll go slowly:

Possible scenarios:
1) Datadanne is an investigator. Bad lynch.
2) Datadanne is a traitor. Good lynch, but cult would have to kill anyways. Lack of Datadanne dying makes this unlikely.
3) Datadanne is a murderer. Good lynch, but as long as there's a graverob every other day, Datadanne can't win. In the meantime, any other murderer would have to kill Datadanne to win.

In the case of #1, we don't want to lynch Datadanne. In the case of #2 and #3, Datadanne cannot win as long as there is a graverob every other night, *and* can serve to soak up an antitown nightkill.

Still with me? Please take the time to reread what I said so you don't misrepresent it *again*.

So.

There is *no* scenario in which a Datadanne lynch is a good idea today. I'd go into the theoreticals about why this is true, but you would mistake them for what I believe again.

I espoused this logic when I said that Datadanne should kill DeathNote d2, and I still stand by it.

[Magua]

While I cannot defend Magua's stances as I as well find them somewhat hypocritical, I do like his logic in 1825.

Show me the hypocrisy.

[Magua]

@magua- If you think there is only 2 factions then you must assume data is town. Whereas your logic points out he could possibly not be and plans for him possibly being a murderer.

I do assume Data is town, or, at worst, Data is a murderer who cannot win.

My logic doesn't point out that Datadanne can't be anything but murderer -- Datadanne can easily be an investigator who simply used their one shot vig (which is, I believe, the case).

I was addressing the worst case scenario. If Data is a bad lynch in the worst
case scenario, Data is a bad lynch in *any* scenario.

The high insanity count and perma bloody makes him immune to investigations.

There's no point in investigating Data, but Data can still be researched. However, unless we actually see a murder taking place, I see absolutely no reason to do so.

Who are you going to vote for? Do you find it interesting that your scumbuddy suddenly went V/LA here at the deadling without placing a vote?

Seeing as I've already claimed Sadism, I couldn't vote for anyone without an infraction, as I said (I say so in post 1816; your post, above, is from 1831).

Anyways, from last night:

I heard noise.

I researched SlySly, and got a negative result (so SlySly's insanity was 2 or less). This brings my insanity to 3. I took Compulsion: Launder for my insanity.

[Magua]

No noise.
I searched for blood on Nachomamma, none to be found.

No noise last night. My insanity count remains 0.

Investigate
You sneak into another player's room, scanning for blood. You determine whether your target has Blood on their clothes. This action requires Forensic Tools as Equipment. If Blood is found, the Forensic Tools are consumed and must be replaced. Investigate creates Noise for your target.
Sample PM: Tonight I will Investigate: Edward Derby.

Somewhere, there is a problem.

[Magua]

Kise's insanity didn't add up yesterday; I just didn't catch it. He claims 1 insanity in 1531, but also claimed an insanity from having received a fetish, and should've had an insanity from robbing DeathNote's grave (as claimed in 1583). So much for being able to spot inconsistencies like that with the spreadsheet.

Here's the point where I would start outlining all possibilities, but then I'd get jumped on by people who don't understand what a hypothetical is.

Datadanne should rob a grave tonight. We should have three to choose from.

I would like Looker to rob one, as well.

Looking over the list of players, the only ones that are jumping out as scummy to me are the ones who can be cleared by Pablo researching them: Chcao and Nachomamma.

My off-the-cuff impression is to push on Sarag, but I can't back that up with any good arguments.

I do support a massclaim at this point. I'm also all for a noise chain, with the notation that we'd have to work around the graverobbers somehow.

[Magua]

I began with Occult Books.

N0: I equipped Wards.

N1: I warded RestFermata (later replaced by Furpants_Tom). I heard noise. Cass (later replaced by CSL) claimed to have warded me; this seems doubtful, now.

N2: I researched Pablo, confirming that he had 0 insanity. I took Distraction as my insanity (bringing me to 1). I heard noise, and no claims were made to it.

N3: I robbed chenhsi's grave; he had Wards. I took Sadism as my insanity (bringing me to 2). I heard no noise.

N4: I researched SlySly, confirming that he has 2 or less insanity. I took Compulsion: Launder as my insanity (bringing me to 3). I heard noise. ZykeZero claims to have investigated me.

I have Occult Books and Wards x 2.

[Magua]

Wow. I go twenty four hours without checking in on the thread, and there's this? That's funny.

Right, then! Let me put in my thoughts:

People I'm 99% sure aren't scum:

Pablo - 0 insanity as of n2.

semioldguy - Kill attempt.

Looker - Investigation report on Pablo only makes sense if Pablo is a cult partner. Pablo isn't scum, ergo, not cult partner. Scum would've posted investigation report on semioldguy.

Bad lynches without more concrete information:

Datadanne - Well...*could* possibly be scum, but could only be murderer, and can't win as such. So a bad lynch.

Chaco, Nachomamma: Pablo could confirm either of these as confirmed townie by researching them. If confirmed, they could then confirm/non-confirm the other. Lynching removes that when there are better suspects around.

Sarag, ZykeZero - I agree with semioldguy that these two cannot be scum if there is only one cult remaining. If a cult dies and the game continues, they need to be looked at again.

Night four he claimed to research SlySly. This claim makes no sense to me as SlySly was going to have less insanity than Magua unless he somehow managed to gain two insanities in one night (or was lying), which is highly unlikely. This made it a safe claim to fake knowing that he could almost never be wrong.

I was curious if he was lying. I assume that the remaining scum is lying about their sanity, as everyone's is too low otherwise, and I found SlySly's actions to be sowing distrust and purposefully trying to twist what I said, so I thought he'd be a good choice to check.

My other possible actions would be to ward, which would've given me no information, or to equip a res kit or forensics kit -- the same. Given the noise I've been hearing, I didn't expect that I would live two more nights, so I figured I'd get information I could share with the town while I could.

Night one the ward claim on Furpants_Tom would be nice cover for Craft Fetish action. Furpants_Tom heard noise on two other nights, though both of those nights also have explained for reasons for the noise. The other two noise claims for Furpants_Tom came from people who died before Furpants_Tom died. Since Furpants_Tom had heard other noises it made him a nice Fetish target since it would have been easy to point to another noise as the reason for death. Magua also admits to this being a bad ward choice and his choice actually went against his own suggested pro-town plan.

As I said d2, warding RestFermata was a mistake because I didn't see that RestFermata had replaced Exalt, and didn't make the connection that Exalt had heard nosie meant that RestFermata had heard noise.

A fetish of Exalt/RestFermata/Furpants_Tom could've been created n0 or n2. My spreadsheet shows no claim for the noise Furpants_Tom heard on n2 -- am I missing something?

Many of his early suspects in this game are players who don't or hardly post. Easy targets.

I have a thing for lurkers in a game, since there's no discussion, it makes it difficult to scumhunt them. I stand to this.

Also the noise claims are very small today. Only two people heard noise, and both have accompanying claims explaining that noise. This makes the investigation last night on Magua showing no blood to not be conclusive as it is likely any cultist laundered last night. Also Magua has claimed to have taken Compulsion so he should know that being caught bloody at any time would be his demise.

I took Compulsion: Launder because it seemed the least intrusive insanity remaining to me, as I don't expect to be bloody before being dead, and, even if I were to get bloody, it's not like I have important night actions remaining to take. Research is pretty much done for me, and warding isn't as important as I thought it would be n0 and n1. I was thinking that tonight, I would probably equip a res kit and use that for the rest of the game.

If I'm to be lynched, once I turn up town, remember this:

Unless overruled by information revealed tomorrow, I recommend lynching Sajin tomorrow, then ryan after that, then SlySly, and finally Datadanne.

Lynch Nacho or Chaco if they are not cleared with the proper insanity counts.

If someone is lynched and comes up cult and the game is still going on, add Sarag and ZykeZero to the list of suspects.

If a murder occurs, add semioldguy to the list of suspects.

Good luck.

[Magua]

Magua, why didn't you take Twitchy as opposed to Compulsion: Launder? At that point, you had no need to hide your insanity as an investigator, so why not take the one that wouldn't hinder your ability as town in any way?

Did you see what happened to Kise?

@Magua
Night Two dramonic hinted to have stalked Furpants_Tom. Even though he is not aligned with town I feel that he was telling the truth in what for him was a hopeless situation.

Possible, but there was as equal incentive for him to be telling the truth as there would be for him to lie, since he'd lose anyways. I disregarded it as WIFOM.

[Magua]

I'm not going to argue that I'm not a good lynch, because there are enough cleareds in my eyes to give the town the mislynches it needs to kill all the suspects as long as there's nothing stupid going on like 3 murderers who haven't killed.

Lynching me because I've got a high insanity and no good way to clear me is an argument I can accept, and I see no reason to argue against it.

Lynching me because I warded RestFermata, who later died after hearing noise on three different nights, is a bad argument. That's all I'm saying.

I've said my bit in post 1975. Once I turn up town, please keep it in mind. Sajin tomorrow, unless Nachomamma or Chaco are found to have lied about their 0 insanity.

[Magua]

I'm curious myself to see if Sly still suspects semioldguy, in light of CSL's cultist flip.

[Magua]

If I'm to be lynched, once I turn up town, remember this:

Unless overruled by information revealed tomorrow, I recommend lynching Sajin tomorrow, then ryan after that, then SlySly, and finally Datadanne.

Lynch Nacho or Chaco if they are not cleared with the proper insanity counts.

If someone is lynched and comes up cult and the game is still going on, add Sarag and ZykeZero to the list of suspects.

If a murder occurs, add semioldguy to the list of suspects.

[Magua]

Research Chaco or Nachomamma.

[Magua]

If you're going to grave rob, he can research Nacho, and then Nacho can research you the next night.

[Magua]

Oh well. Cult was really screwed losing half their number by d1, and then having all the murderers taken out by d3. Town played really well.

[Magua]

Good job Magua for sticking out a game that must have been hard going, especially after KoC's betrayal.

My night two QT began: "Hi. Well, I think we're fucked..."

But, hey, it was fun.

Let's see:

I messed up claiming to Ward RestFermata rather than Res him. That was a slip on my part, though the not matching RestFermata up to Exalt on the noise list was true.

n0, I went with the assumption that a large spread of fetishes would be more useful than grabbing equipment. I'd recommend to the next scum group to go with 2/3 fetish and 1/3 res kit. I simply did not expect 3 stalkings the first night.

I think that if the semioldguy ritual had gone through, things would've been quite different. That right there gave the town two clears (Pablo and looker), with semioldguy either a clear or a half clear, depending upon how you look at it. It probably still would've been a town win, I think it just would've taken longer.

But town not mislynching a single time was pretty impressive. Honestly, I probably cursed you all for that more than anything. =P