The Werewolves of Millers Hollow (Game Over)

[NabakovNabakov]

Hey guys, I read D1 during the night. I should be able to read D2 and post sometime tomorrow or Thursday.

[NabakovNabakov]

So...

Basic summary of D1: A tale told by a Village Idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nearly no scumhunting.

Basic summary of D2: Montagues Vs. Capulets, complete with all the appropriate suicides and vengence killings.

(Awww yeah, we're gettin our Bard on tonight)

To put things another way, Xtoxm's early-day shenanigans have jammed this game in an awkward position that it has yet to fully recover from. D1, the focus was almost exclusively on Xtoxm's claim (which ultimately proved just true enough that his spiritual successor is still around, but just false enough that he's useless) and Firestarter's hard-headed defense of his boneheaded proposal for the mayoral election (which, btw, ended up being thrown haphhazzardly to a player who never really wanted to win it all that badly). The conversation rarely branched out into actual discussions of scuminess, and several players (knox, ZONEACE, ztife, mufasa, my predecessor) were allowed to lurk or post minimal content.

Fortunately, D2 was a little better on the lurker front. Of the three male lurkers, two (ZONEACE, mufasa) were pressured significantly, though only mufasa responded. However, the conversation was once again dominated by twoish subjects: the dingoPepper debate and mufasa's incompetence/disorientation. As opposed to the discussions on D1, these were at least of the type which involve high-stakes opinions on the scuminess of particular players (rather than the sterile theory of election methods and policy lynches), so that is where I intend to do most of my mining (soon to come, too tired now)

My basic theory:
The dingoPepper debate, being townie-on-townie, was a gift to the scum. Even if there are two scum factions or the scum think that there are, the fact is that a certain portion of the people posting on D2

knew

that neither dingo nor Pepper shared their allignment, so this must have had them cackling with glee:

Here's something for you dingo, my vote is staying on you until you are either lynched, or night killed. Criticize that jackass.

Therefore, we are most likely to find scum among those who worked to keep the dingoPepper debate from falling in intensity, pushing it towards the conclusion Pepper promised he would provide.

But for now, I'm tired, and the How and the Who will have to come later.

A few current matters:

-Are all the ladies here an accounted for? I would not be at all surprised if Knox and Ztife are gone for good. If they aren't, they need to make significant posts soon.
-For those ladies who aren't up to speed, Mufasa made the claim yesterday (which he now appears to be retracting *sigh*) that your woodland gathering had some bearing on an event triggered by his lynch. Did you get

any

flavor from the mod regarding your absence?
-Don't forget about Millar. If he's stopped posting (which is a possibility) we should have him be replaced. The VI role isn't useless now that it's been tree-stumped, it's useless because it's occupied by a VI.

[NabakovNabakov]

WAAAAA I lost my vote... You are scum, BM.

Is BM really the scummiest person in this situation? I would think that given all the talk D1 of two votes possibly placing greater scrutiny on scum, wouldn't it follow that a player with no vote will experience less scrutiny?

Therefore, any player who deprives themselves of their own vote, regardless of whether or not it looks like an accident, is looking pretty scummy to me. It just seems like an excuse to lurk and shirk (hey, that's kind of catchy) responsibility for a day.

[NabakovNabakov]

WAAAAA I lost my vote... You are scum, BM.

Is BM really the scummiest person in this situation? I would think that given all the talk D1 of two votes possibly placing greater scrutiny on scum, wouldn't it follow that a player with no vote will experience less scrutiny?

Therefore, any player who deprives themselves of their own vote, regardless of whether or not it looks like an accident, is looking pretty scummy to me. It just seems like an excuse to lurk and shirk (hey, that's kind of catchy) responsibility for a day.

I call BS. You're really stretching it here, NabNab.

Maybe you're right. Calling Zwet out at this point is premature; he has niether lurked nor shirked, but I think that this is definitely a potential problem.

In other words, the last thing I want to hear today is "I can't [X] because I lost my vote" (when X =/= hammer).

[NabakovNabakov]

I really don't understand what BM is doing in his Yoscase. Quotes like this:

2. Obviously, after Mafia 24, you wanted to play in the exact opposite way in order to look protown. That means not trying at all hard to get elected, and indeed, fighting hard to get someone ELSE elected.

Are such pure WIFOM that I can't help but see them as self-conscious. But what's the point?

@Ztife: OK, you're back, but where exactly did you go for an RL week? Smells like intentional lurking.

FOS

Reposting this:

-For those ladies who aren't up to speed, Mufasa made the claim yesterday (which he now appears to be retracting *sigh*) that your woodland gathering had some bearing on an event triggered by his lynch. Did you get any flavor from the mod regarding your absence?

Mufasa's whole claim is flashing "bad fakeclaim" to me, and I'm really reluctant to let him get away with it for another day. However, the proliferation of roles with lynch based mechanics in this game (Pepper's vengence kill, the VI fiasco, etc.) means I at least want him to give some answers to the questions about his role before taking any action.

MOD: Can we get Prods on Knox and Shinnen_no_me?

[NabakovNabakov]

What was mufasa's claim again?

He hasn't named a specific role, but here was what he said about it so far:
-He has a "pro-town ability"
-Said ability activates on lynch, but not in the event of a self-hammer
-It is somehow dependent on the outcome of yesterday's "woodland gathering"
-The town would be best off lynching him today
-The town would be best off lynching him tomorrow

[NabakovNabakov]

I think Mufasa should confirm what he's only kind of explained. I'm not sure he ever said tomorrow was the best time for his role to trigger. He also didn't specifically say that the woodland gathering event was good for his role; it was just something that happened day 2 (like it could have just been because it was day 2).

Well, there is this:

I will tell you this much, it is in the towns best interest to lynch me on the next day.

As to the woodland gathering bit, the fact that there has been no followup from the Mod, the ladies, or Mufasa himself is actually what makes me the most suspicious of the claim. It was a substantiating detail of his claim that has failed to materialize, so unless we're dealing with some [illegitmately-conceived]modding (idk, that VI role was fairly nasty), it seems to me like overreaching on a fakeclaim.

[NabakovNabakov]

@Juls: First, it's absurd that I would breadcrumb a third party role. Second, my predecessor was told N1 that he was dancing with DizzyIzzy, and it was clear the music was coming from a source other than him. I did not recieve similar notification N2. Who else was dancing with you?

As to Mufasa's claim, I am unconvinced.
-With the new revelation that all roles so far have been based on the card game (The best explanation of the roles I could find was this YouTube video), the inclusion of an "Impressionist" whose role doesn't match any others in name or abilities seems unlikely.
-It appears to me that a random lightning strike is not a pro-town thing to trigger (nor, for that matter, is a vengance kill in the hands of Mufasa)
-I don't see how the flavor of "impressionist" applies to other parts of the role. Why does killing the impressionist cause a random person to die? What does the woodland gathering have to do with his cycle of impressions?
-Mufasa opened the game by saying he "didn't fear death" which would be consonant with a role that only attained its true power upon lynch/NK. However, it seems this role is most useful if kept alive. Huh?

Some theories:
-Mufasa is scum with an elaborate fakeclaim designed to frighten the town (random death!) and push any possible verification into the far future (isn't it funny that Vig was the role he skipped over?). Basaically, IAWY2
-Mufasa is the Piper playing essentially the same gambit in the hopes of holding out to the end.
-Mufasa has been paired by the Cupid with another player as lovers (which would explain the random death but not the vengence kill).


@Juls: You say you have the cards available? A few questions:
-What exactly is the Cupid's win condition?
-How does the Piper work? It seems like his ability to charm expands by one person per night.
-What roles does the Thief select from?

[NabakovNabakov]

Yes. I got the same message both nights, first saying it was just me and Barrylocke, the second to say that it was me, Barrylocke abnd Juls.

Huh, I didn't get a PM last night, so I'll just assume it was a mod error.

1) This exact role? I doubt it. It might be possible for a scum roleblocker to simulate that role (up until the point he's lynched, after which everything is moot), but that would still mean he's fakeclaiming.
2) Similar story, though I don't know of any third-party roles with roleblocking abilities.
3) The wait-and-see strategy is dubious. Without outing a powerrole (who's ability is also confirmable), we would have to wait for the Vig role to come around again, which would push back any confirmation four whole days.

All in all, I find this role simply too implausible to see it as anything but a complete fakeclaim, and considering that Mufasa has already passed up any opportunity to recant as a lying townie, I'm going to

Vote: Mufasa

[NabakovNabakov]

yikes... At least she wasn't a power role ><

what power roles are there left anyways?

Wow, false sympathy and rolefishing. You rarely get a twofer like that.

Vote: Dramonic

Things appear to be getting more dire on the Piper front.

Two

people (Rockatansky nee knox; The Replacement nee Shinnen_no_me) were added to the dancers. With Juls dead, that puts the total at four, and it seems we'll be dealing with two-person increases as the game progresses. In a worst-case-scenario (two lynches today, one tomorrow, one NK each night, none on current dancers), the Piper could win by the beginning of D6.

Mod: Can you please define "immediately" in "immediately lynch a second person"? Do we get another full round of voting, or lynch the runner-up, or what?

[NabakovNabakov]

yikes... At least she wasn't a power role ><

what power roles are there left anyways?

Wow, false sympathy and rolefishing. You rarely get a twofer like that.

Vote: Dramonic

-Lol, I rarely express sympathy over people dying in an internet game.
It's not sympathy, it's considering that we've killed 5 town and 1 mafia in 3 days, it's a bad avergfae
-It's not rolefishing, it's wanting to know what's left. I don't care who's who, since we cant value that anymore after two fake claims.

How exactly are we supposed to find out what's left without people claiming their roles? What exactly would you do with that information if you got it?

[NabakovNabakov]

I agree that rolefishing is anti-town, but no way should it cause someone to be insta-lynched.

I agree, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be pressured. (Because I also agree with the Replacement that the quantity and depth of lurking in this game has been shameful).

On that note:

honestly, right now I have no clue >< [who is scum]

Seriously? What exactly were you thinking about as you read 45 pages of gameplay if it wasn't finding the scum?

Even given that there is common-knowledge information about possible roles in this game, I'm still not comfortable with your comment. How would a knowledge of possible roles in the game help with scumhunting?

@The Replacement:
-Yes, DingoPepper was a distracting and time waisting disaster... Why are you ressurecting it?

-"Town is perfectly capable of lying" is a pretty lackluster defense of Mufasa. Town is perfectly capable of doing a lot of anti-town things, and I tend to be quite sympathetic to those tendencies. However, after a player has avered to an obviously fake claim specifically designed to be dangerous to lynch and difficult to confirm, I tend to draw the line. As to why scum would be more likely to make that claim, it's basic LAL theory. Fake-claims are confusing and misleading no matter who makes them, and this plays well to the scum.

[NabakovNabakov]

@Replacement: Believe me man, I coined "VI" for just the very situation you described, players so out of it that they act anti-town without even realizing it. Check my meta; I am highly sympathetic to out-and-out dumb play, but Mufasa's blatant fakeclaim crossed the line in my book. Most VI play I have observed is passive: making infrequent/contentless commentary on the game, voting with the majority but without explanation, being unable or unwilling to form cases/defenses. No matter how you slice it, Mufasa's fakeclaim was an intentional attempt to deceive the town and protect himself that he put forward under minimal pressure. That is actively anti-town behavior. That is scummy.

Oh, and this isn't a trend. Lynch All Liars was around before I got here, and it will still be around if I ever get gone.

[NabakovNabakov]

His flip, of course. I wanted to lynch him to get the superpowers he claimed to have for the town.

You mean the superpower where one person dies randomly and another is killed by Mufasa, paragon of good judgment and quality scumhunting?

[NabakovNabakov]

Huh?

Please explain why the power Mufasa claimed would have helped the town.

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, so I went back and re-read most of the relevant bits to today's discussion. Here's a study-guide for anybody who's interested.

In 745, 783, 793, 794, and 802 Mike is limping through the textwalls that characterized pages 31-33. Most of what he says in these posts is consonant with 808 where he provides a detailed summary/analysis... to post 641 (over 150 posts behind the thread), ending it with this:

It just seems like a misunderstanding so far. Looking at the last few posts on this page, this where things break down. Should I keep posting in this format? Does anyone else want to take over and give their interpretation? Does anyone think I've misinterpreted their position so far?

Thus writing off 6 pages of play with a single sentence: "this is where things break down."

There is a brief Mufasa-based interlude (largely based on Mike's push in that direction) in which he (fake)softclaims and is let off the hook. Jahudo (861), Kaiverian (now Starbuck)(869), and Zwet (871) all vote Pepper in relatively short order, and Mike asks what the deal is. Jahudo (874) and Kaiverian (883) direct Mike to portions of the DingoPepper debate after the portion he analyzed, mainly focused on the accusation that Pepper misrepresented Dingo's postion as wanting Percy's vote to change rather than just be changable. Mike (presumably) reads these posts (again?) and posts 888:

I wonder what this wait is doing to the people who can't post. I'm thinking of voting Dr Pepper, the posts Kaiveran posted do seem quite scummy.

If we don't get a satisfactory answer for the question you still have outstanding (I think it's the one near the bottom of page 33? That was a while ago...) I think I'll be voting. I hadn't had him pegged as scum previously, though- I can't really say why but I'd got the impression he was quite levelheaded and townie.

Unvote

Jahudo is correct to point out that he pushes the Pepper wagon without voting, though in 899 and 913 he indicates that he is waiting for Pepper respond to Dingo's accusations and the post-MufasaInterlude pressure. A few posts later, Pepper self-hammers.

Some Comments:
-Throughout this entire affair, from 745 to 913, I'm never quite certain that Mike has actually read/comprehended/considered the entire DingoPepper debate. For the first few posts, he is explicit about it. In 808, he dismisses the meat of the argument, recognizing the fact that their animosity was based on a misunderstanding but failing to realize that both felt they were being

intentionally

misunderstood. Following the MufasaInterlude, what sparse evidence he does have for Pepper's scumminess focused (and continues to focus) on Pepper's not answering the question Dingo posed in 813. However, anyone following the debate up to that point (

especially

someone re-reading it) would have recognized that by 813, that question was not just redundant (this was at least the fifth time it was being asked; hell, in 813, it was actually quoted from an earlier post), but ironic in light of 809. After the first few times, it was clear Dingo meant the question rhetorically, as in "You can't explain why this isn't a misrepresentation because you're scum." Therefore, citing Pepper's main sin as avoiding a question directed at him is perhaps correct, but this is really just the symptom of a disease that should have been easily recognizable, his misrepresentation of Dingo's position. Therefore, treating Pepper like he was lurking and avoiding prodding questions (when he really flamed out under an assault of accusing questions) is nonsensical. What exactly did Mike expect Pepper to accomplish if he returned (and didn't self-hammer)?

-Regardless of whether or not he actually read the DingoPepper debate, Mike provided a pitifully scarce amount of information on how he viewed it during D2. For the entire debate following 641, we have only two or three sentences of commentary/analysis from Mike, most of which featured prominently in my study-guide. Jahudo is also right to point out that Mike's conversion to suspecting Pepper is sparsely documented. While he does not simply follow along with the case Zwet/Jahudo/Kaiverian cite to him on 35-6 (that Pepper misrepresented Dingo), he also posts no original analysis and provides a case (the unanswered questions approach) that fails to hold water.

-As I see it, Mike had not spent any considerable amount of time with the DingoPepper debate until after the MufasaInterlude (mainly because he had been pushing for the focus to move to Mufasa throughout the substance of the debate). Only after it was decided to postpone Mufasa's lynch did Mike go back and actually consider the debate, and then only hastily. I think this explains (but does not pardon) the massive discrepancies between initial (808) and later (888) analyses.

-It should be noted that Mike began suspecting Pepper only a short time before he was lynched by an unforseeable combination of Mufasa's obliviousness and Pepper's spiteful suicide, and during that time he wanted to bring Pepper back into the discussion for questioning, perhaps indicating that the missing analysis could have come later had the day not been cut short. However, this is mixed (as Jahudo noticed) with an unwarranted strength of suspicion in 913.

-In conclusion, Mike came extremely late and sloppy to DingoPepper, and the last post he made on the subject (913) seems to indicate that he would have remained sloppy desipite the potential for genuine analysis. Sloppy can equal scummy, but I don't want to stand a verdict on this slice of Mike's posting. I should have plenty of free time this weekend to look hard at what Mike looked hard at D2/3, Mufasa.

[NabakovNabakov]

I too have been wondering what to do about Zwet. I certainly haven't liked his penchant for hammers and not supporting his opinions. Also, the changability of said opinions (Yos is rolefishing -> Yos is obvtown; Xtoxm/Mufasa is not the play -> Hammah). However, this is the first game I've played with Zwet. Is this really him just being him, or are we on another level here?

Mike throws suspicion at a lurker/inactive, and said lurker quickly appears to rebut his vote. Huh.

@Mike: How could possibly been afraid that BM would "change his behavior" following your accusing him if that behavior was pure inactivity.

@BM: Have you been reading the thread? How did you respond to Mike's accusation so quickly?

[NabakovNabakov]

@Mike: I don't think we're talking about the same change in behavior.

In 1274 you claimed that you didn't want to reveal who you were suspicious of because you were afraid that revealing your read would cause him to curtail the scummy behavior you were keeping tabs on.

But I don't really see how that gels with the later case you posted on BM. It's obvious that you feel his scummy behavior began long before Post 1274 (you referenced a post made over 25 pages before by Mufasa). By the time you made that post, BM's participation had dwindled to roughly a week of total inactivity (mitigated, as we now know, by RL circumstances). What exactly was there to observe?

[NabakovNabakov]

Ztife: scumhunting in a town manner, but trying to get rid of the responsability that double-voting includes was very scummy. More reading required.

Huh? Where has Ztife scumhunted once?

[NabakovNabakov]

Whoops, forgot about this game. I'll send my PM and get reading.

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, so I made a big post analyzing Dramonic's loverhunt (conclusion: a bad idea that probably won't work anyway), but it got eaten by my computer's schizophrenic control key. I'll try to recreate it later.

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, sorry about the delay.

Dramonic's plan has a number of potential faults:
1) From a VC-making perspective, you could completely disregard all the vote; unvote pairs in dramonic's test post. Therefore, if the lover vote restriction is enacted by simply not acknowleding any attempt they make to vote for each other, we won't learn anything.
2) If the restriction is enforced by some sort of private punishment, there will be no definite evidence of that punishment. We won't learn anything.
3)If the restriction is enforced by public punishment, that punishment will likely be replacement or modkill. Assuming that the lovers would be aware of this fact, we would essentially be asking the players to kick themselves out of the game, and that crosses some ethical lines in my book.

Therefore, the

only

way dramonic's plan will do what it is supposed to do is if the lover's non-voting clause is enforced in some way that is publically noticable but not a modkill. Add in the fact that (for the time being) we are working with a mod who may have no idea who the lovers are or what to do if they vote each other, and it looks like we have a slim chance of learning anything.

In terms of the strategic implications if we actually

did

have a reliable way to locate the lovers, I ran the probabilities and came up with this:

[Assuming 4 remaining scum + 1 third-party piper]
2 Town: 39.6% (9/14)*(8/13)
1 Scum; 1 Town: 49.5% (9/14)*(5/13) + (5/14)*(9/13)
2 Scum: 10.9% (5/14)*(4/13)

Note: These were not the numbers I was working with in my lost post. At that time, I had been treating the town as if it still had 21 people (which gave me less encouraging numbers), even though it is acceptable in the rules of probability to just use the number of town members alive today.

Note2: Also keep in mind that all these numbers are based on scum-group-size numbers that I do not have and are different (though not drastically so) for

+

1 scum-group-size.

If we were able to repeat this process a large number of times, we could catch roughly 80 scum and 120 townies per hundred lover reveals. In other words, revealing the lovers catches .8 of a scum. A random lynch (5/14), by comparsion, would catch about .36 of a scum. That might make it seem like lover-reveal has the edge, but a few considerations:
-We are not lynching randomly. That lynches informed and directed towards scum by town discussion is a founding principle in mafia.
-In 5/6 of cases where we kill scum, we also kill a townie.
-If we're talking about the chances of catching scum while killing 2 people, it's interesting to note that the chances of killing at least one scum with two consecutive random lynches under the Dissatisfaction rules is 74%, only 6% short of a lover-reveal.

Probability-wise, there is no discernable improvement to our chances of catching scum via revealing the lovers rather than actually hunting scum the good old fashioned way.

As to the argument that the lovers, regardless of their respective allignments, should be eliminated ASAP, I disagree that we gain anything from killing 2 town now rather than later. It would be nice to elminate the threat of Survivoresque third-party shenanigans, but I hardly think this concern takes precedence over locating the Mafia and Piper. If all three threatening factions (and we aren't even positive the lovers are a threatening faction) went unchecked, either the Mafia or the Piper would reach their win-condition long before the lovers.

So again: a bad idea that probably won't work anyway.

[NabakovNabakov]

Mod:

Does knowledge of previous lynches pass to the new executioner? Also, who are we currently seeking replacements for?

Piper update: No new dancers were added tonight, which seems to indicate that the Piper is one of our MIA players. (Unless anyone can think of a Miller's Hollow role that could potentially stop the Piper from acting, or we're being WIFOMed) If I'm not mistaken, the flakers would be: Millar13 (confirmed townie), Ztife, Rockatansky (already dancing), and Mike(apparently).

All other living players have posted, and the Mod says he's looking for 4 replacements. Unless we're being serioulsy screwed with, both Millar and Rockatansky are out of the running, so that leaves Mike and Ztife. Mike's last post on the site was to announce a V/LA that would have taken him through the lynch, so it's plausible he's still playing/would have been around to make a night action. Ztife's last post on site was July 10, after N3 (when the Piper acted) but before N4. So if it turns out Mike is well and truly flaked, it comes down to whether you want to lynch activescum or passivescum.

Also, this executioner mechanic is a cruel and unusual punishment. At best, we pick an honest townie who isn't killed, and we only end up with a 1/2 cycle delay on lynch reveals, leading to underinformed power roles. At worst, our lynch reveals, the bread and butter of scumhunting, are either erased via NKs or subject to distortion by a dishonest executioner (circumstances which will be maddeningly difficult to root out when the scum we're trying to track has complete control over lynch reveals).

For now, I vote

Millar13 for executioner

. If this game doesn't collapse entirely, he will be replaced with an active player who we can be confident is town. If the scum want to kill him, they will have to sacrifice the opportunity to hit a power role and/or respected player. Unlike the mayor, this role isn't going to take a genius or a scumhunting master. We just need someone with a pulse and a town confirmation to report allignments.

[NabakovNabakov]

The only problem with your plan to vote for Millar13 is that I doubt anyone would want to replace in as a tree-stumped player, and replacement of him isn't necessary for the game to advance.

They don't have to read the game; they don't have to post any content. All they have to do is report on allignments. If we don't get any replacements the regular way, I'm all for advertising the role like that.

Basically, I'm just trying to make use of this resource (a confirmed townie, treestumped or no) that we've been neglecting the whole game.

[NabakovNabakov]

The way I see it, it would be foolish to end this day without waiting for replacements anyway. If we start tomorrow without having replaced Millar n' the Flakers, we'll have bigger problems to deal with.

[NabakovNabakov]

Zwet was a player in this game already. How can he replace in?

In large games where the prospect of a long read puts off fresh replacements, it's not uncommon for dead players who had no special knowledge in their past life (i.e. were a townie) to replace into a new role.

I'm perfectly fine with having Zwet in as our confirmed-treestumped-executioner. Not quite as swanky as "official town hammerer," but close.

Vote: Zwet for executioner

[NabakovNabakov]

Well, we could try to actually hunt scum/piper.

As I said a few pages back, unless we're being mercilessly WIFOMd, the Piper is somebody who was inactive last night (Millar (now zwet); ztife; Rockatansky; BM)

Zwet is confirmed town, and Rockatansky is already a dancer, so that makes the two probable pipers Ztife and BM, both of whom have bizzarely volunteered themselves for a position it's obvious they didn't deserve. (go figure)

I will

Vote: Battle Mage

. His saying he got "prodded by some night action overnight" in iso 100 makes me think he might be our man.

[NabakovNabakov]

The Piper can pick 1 (?) player per night to play his pipe for and send into a trance-dance. If he can get all living players dancing, he wins.

I suspect the Piper was inactive last nigt because each player who is dancing (I am one of them) gets a list of who else is dancing at the end of each night, and no new people were added to the list last night.

[NabakovNabakov]

Well, we could try to actually hunt scum/piper.

As I said a few pages back, unless we're being mercilessly WIFOMd, the Piper is somebody who was inactive last night (Millar (now zwet); ztife; Rockatansky; BM)

Zwet is confirmed town, and Rockatansky is already a dancer, so that makes the two probable pipers Ztife and BM, both of whom have bizzarely volunteered themselves for a position it's obvious they didn't deserve. (go figure)

I will

Vote: Battle Mage

. His saying he got "prodded by some night action overnight" in iso 100 makes me think he might be our man.

Haha, 2 things.

1. Who are you to judge who "deserves" a position? The executioner doesnt need to be someone who has played well, it needs to be someone who is protown. I fit the role perfectly.
2. Do you really think that I, as scum, would claim to have been prodded by a night-action, if that night actions implicated me as scum?

This is almost as funny as it is unnerving.

BM

1) Why guess on the townieness of a player when we have a confirmed townie at our disposal? You didn't deserve the position because you were very clearly pre-empted by Millar/Zwet.
2) WIFOM. Also, with the amount of attention you've been paying to this game, I wouldn't be surprised.

My PM does NOT say you were dancing last night (what about you, Izzy?). Potentially a mod error, so I'll see if I can get confirmation.

[NabakovNabakov]

Well, we could try to actually hunt scum/piper.

As I said a few pages back, unless we're being mercilessly WIFOMd, the Piper is somebody who was inactive last night (Millar (now zwet); ztife; Rockatansky; BM)

Zwet is confirmed town, and Rockatansky is already a dancer, so that makes the two probable pipers Ztife and BM, both of whom have bizzarely volunteered themselves for a position it's obvious they didn't deserve. (go figure)

I will

Vote: Battle Mage

. His saying he got "prodded by some night action overnight" in iso 100 makes me think he might be our man.

Haha, 2 things.

1. Who are you to judge who "deserves" a position? The executioner doesnt need to be someone who has played well, it needs to be someone who is protown. I fit the role perfectly.
2. Do you really think that I, as scum, would claim to have been prodded by a night-action, if that night actions implicated me as scum?

This is almost as funny as it is unnerving.

BM

1) Why guess on the townieness of a player when we have a confirmed townie at our disposal? You didn't deserve the position because you were very clearly pre-empted by Millar/Zwet.
2) WIFOM. Also, with the amount of attention you've been paying to this game, I wouldn't be surprised.

My PM does NOT say you were dancing last night (what about you, Izzy?). Potentially a mod error, so I'll see if I can get confirmation.

Haha, why do i find it hilariously strange that im being called scum for dancing, by...the other people who were dancing?

BM

You're not being called scum for dancing. As far as I'm aware, you

aren't

dancing (and now that I check your list, Ztife wasn't in my PM either). You're being called scum for being inactive on a night when an anti-town role took no action.

[NabakovNabakov]

Ok, I just got an update from the mod, and it seems I was operating with bad info.

BM and Zitife are both dancing now in addition to Me, Izzy, and Rockatansky, so I guess we're back to square one.

Unvote

This puts the list of non-dancers at: Mike, Zwet, Yos, Jahudo, Gorrad, and Starbuck.

Because we lost our operative tell (that the Piper didn't act last night), it's probably best to table the Piper hunt and just go after scum. When we get down to 2 or 3 people possibly being the Piper instead of 5 (so tomorrow, I guess), we'll have a better chance of nailing him.

[NabakovNabakov]

This still seems odd to me though.

Night One: BarryLocke, DizzyIzzyB13

If the piper can only recruit one a night (and it looks that way, by the rest of Izzy's list), then why were there two dancers night 1?

No, it looks like two a night to me. The only abberation is on N2, but that just means the Piper probably tried to recruit someone who was killed or protected that night.

Recruits for each night:
N1: Izzy, Nab
N2: Juls, Fonz/Percy/somebody somehow protected that night
N3: Rock, Replacement
N4: BM, Ztife

[NabakovNabakov]

ok, i'll bite. whats a Piper?

This is inexcusable. Have you read

any

of the thread?

Btw, im not confirmed because i asked for replacement. im confirmed because i offered to be modkilled. i wouldnt do that as scum.

Do you realize what kind of precedent it would set if this kind of WIFOM logic were accepted and anybody offering to be modkilled was instantly confirmed as town? As I see it, asking to be modkilled is just an amplification of self-voting. Also, given the general level of disarray in this game and the fact that (at the time) there were three completely inactive players, your request to be modkilled was unlikely to be honored simply because you were around to post it. It was a meaningless gesture that you obviously haven't followed through on.

[NabakovNabakov]

I agree that BM is scummy, but it would be better to target someone who's scummy and could possibly be the Piper, in my opinion.

6 left not dancing. One of them we think is the Piper.

So the worst case scenario is- we lynch someone who isn't dancing but isn't the Piper. That's 4 left. Nightkill another non-dancer, that's 3 left. 2 new dancers, 1 left. We'd have a 50/50 chance of hitting the Piper tomorrow (as a worst case scenario).

If we lynch a dancer to try and thin the numbers, it's possible that could help the Piper- as they could be left tomorrow with two non-dancers other than the Piper. Worse odds when it comes to lynching the Piper.

This assumes that:
1) The scum agree with killing a non-dancer
2) The non-dancer they kill is

not

targeted by the Piper

Personally, I feel there are so many unknowns

and

ways to correct course at this stage that lynching dancer v. non-dancer today is pretty much irrelevant.

If we lynch a dancer, the possible number of non-dancers tomorrow ranges from 3 to 5. If we lynch a non dancer, that range becomes 2 to 4. From anywhere in that cumulative range (2 to 5), we could eke out a 50-50 shot.

With 2 non-dancers: Already there
With 3 non-dancers: Lynch one, obligate the scum to kill one of the other two.
With 4 non-dancers: Lynch a dancer, obligate the scum to kill a dancer.
With 5 non-dancers: Lynch a non-dancer, obligate the scum to kill a dancer (or vice-versa).

[NabakovNabakov]

I'm vanilla.

And he claims vanilla with

two

three votes on him.

Let's hang him.

Fixed for Mayor.

Also, went back and read in iso, and I'm agreeing with Yos here. Lots of going for the easy lynch. The first thing he did was vote Xtoxm for a quasi policy-lynch, also on the Mufasa and Dramonic wagons with almost 0 contribution. He was behind the ramping up of suspicion on Zwet that overflowed into Dissatisfaction voting, but he tried to keep his hands clean with some halfhearted anti-VI-lynch rhetoric.

The "I'm not motivated when I play VT" defense is an old (and rotten) chestnut. Also noting a pretty persistent support/defense of BM, which given the total level of content (very low) sticks out.

Vote: Gorrad

That's L-2.

[NabakovNabakov]

The Piper wins by getting everyone to dance. Almost everyone left is dancing. Piper needs to die, ASAP, which means we need to get whichever of Jahudo and Starbuck it is before we can kill BMscum

aww, but i wanna lynch BM-scum NOW!

Also, that role makes no sense. Surely the Piper cannot realistically win, if he recruits 1 person per night, and everyone knows he is not dancing. That's retardedly unbalanced, and is why i think the piper must be dancing.

BM

Piper recruits 2 per night, and he's right on the cusp of winning (he actually would have won already if he had recruited whoever among Starbuck and Jahudo is not the Piper instead of Yos)

Mod: Does today's "Punishment" kill count as our lynch for the day?

[NabakovNabakov]

I Vouch for Starbuck's Integrity

Claim:

Little Girl (Tracker)

My role obviously couldn't be like it is in RL (the Little Girl can peek around during Night to ID werewolves but dies instantly if caught), but tracker makes sense in context. With the estimated size of the scumgroup, I don't consider a negative result all that much indication that a player is not

scum

but it does rule them out from being Piper.

Anyway, the reason I'm claiming is that I tracked Starbuck 2 nights ago, and she didn't go anywhere. I would have rather kept this role hidden for use in the scumhunt, but Jahudo has played well, and it seemed very unlikely that an uninformed town would make the right decision.

N1, Barrylocke tracked Dramonic/Firestarter. No result
N2, I tracked Mufasa. No result. (Yet another reason why I didn't believe his claim)
N3, I tracked Zwets. No result
N4, I tracked Mike. No result
N5, I tracked Starbuck. No result
Last night my field of possible Pipers (if Gorrad wasn't already the Piper) had been narrowed to Yos or Jahudo, and I went with Yos on a hunch (either one was going to give me my answer)

Even if you don't believe my claim, my obvious interest in keeping Starbuck alive should be enough to convince you that if we don't vouch for Starbuck and lynch Jahudo

immediately

, it's game over.

Vote: Jahudo

[NabakovNabakov]

I do not vouch for starbuck's integrity. She could very well be a werewolf.

Doesn't matter. If she dies, Jahudo wins.

[NabakovNabakov]

Sorry, my bad for using confusing terminology.

"No Result" just means that I didn't see them go anywhere. I don't believe I was ever blocked.

[NabakovNabakov]

I guess I have to claim now since Nabakov must either be lying or have had a role affect his tracking.

I claim

Werewolf

. You'll lynch me next obviously but this is better than losing today. There's no way I'm giving away anything else I know.

This is a lie, and I know exactly how to put it to the test.

We No Lynch today. If what you say is true, you will be able to kill Starbuck tonight. If what you say is false, the real scum will know you are lying, acknowledge that the only situation a player would fakeclaim scum is in a state of intense, short-term, self-preservation such as the Piper would have at this time, and kill you.

Unvote; Vote: No Lynch

[NabakovNabakov]

Can we be certain that nightkills would happen before the Piper acts? This could be as much of a gamble as lynching Jahudo would be.

We'd have to trust that the mafia kill before the Piper can act. We'd have to trust that the mafia's win condition is opposed to the Piper's. We'd have to trust that Jahudo isn't just a townie fakeclaiming in order to get Starbuck lynched (though that's a bit farfetched...)

On the plus side- if the gamble pays off and the mafia do lose if the Piper wins, and Jahudo is either a werewolf or the Piper, they'd have no choice but to kill off the Piper, and we'd have a free track to use as we wish.

There could easily be a tracking-misdirector, I suppose, so we can't say for certain that it's Jahudo.

Can anyone tell me whether Cult Leaders and other similar roles win if they get nightkilled on the same night that they recruit enough to win? Does the kill happen before or after their action?

I believe there's a thread somewhere in MD about standard night-action priorities, and while I don't remember all the rules about RBs and Busdrivers, I'm almost certain that it's standard for kills to resolve first and prevent the killed party from taking any action. Also, win-conditions aren't typically assessed until a Day/Night transition. In other words, there might (heavy emphasis on might) be some point during the night where the Piper will have everyone dancing, but it doesn't count if he isn't alive the next day.

I'm open to tracking anybody the town wants (though if I was a watcher, catching scum tonight would be a snap).

[NabakovNabakov]

My claim and the reliability of its results isn't even an issue at this point. It was what pushed Jahudo to claiming yes, but now that he

has

claimed, he is committed to a position, and my No Lynch scheme takes advantage of only that fact. Even if my results are inaccurate, even if I hadn't claimed at all, the fact that Jahudo has claimed werewolf makes killing the Piper tonight foolproof.

[NabakovNabakov]

Hm... I don't really see how this plan is foolproof.

It's simple.

Jahudo's claim can be either true or false...

If it is true: Starbuck is the Piper and must die. Because Jahudo is a werewolf and can identify Starbuck as the Piper, he has the ability to kill him.

If it is false: Jahudo is the Piper and must die. Because the real werewolves will know that Jahudo lied, and that he would have no reason to lie other than protecting his identity as the Piper, they will kill him.

In both cases, the Piper dies.

[NabakovNabakov]

Victory!

Yeah, scum's win condition was "Werewolves make up half the town," and there were four of us (me, Starbuck, Mike, Ztife) left in an 8-man town. As far as I know, none of the werewolves have special powers.

Obviously, am not the Little Girl/Tracker. Starbuck is/was my scumbuddy, so I knew anyway that she couldn't be Piper, I just had to communicate that message to the town in a way other than "Hi, I'm scum."

Jahudo played a really good game with a hard role; it's just bad luck (for him) that he didn't win.

Also, town probably lost their chance to win this game around Day 5. Too much bickering/lurking/other self-destructive behaviors. By yesterday, townies were actually in the minority.

Thanks MafiaSSk for picking up the pieces of this game